USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! US dollar/Japanese yen ke jode ne nuqsanat badhaye. Kal, jodi 156.57 ki support satah tak gir gayi aur is se kuch niche. Aaj, qimat 155.74 ke nishan tak gir gayi. Iske bad, bulls ne pahal ki aur qimat ko 1556.57 ki muzahmati satah tak dhakel diya. Aalmi satah par, market ki suratehal bamushkil tabdil hui hai. Tezi ka rujhan barqarar hai. Yaumiyah aur haftawar chart ke mutabiq, is kami ko mandi ki islah ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai. Agar qimat me girawat jari nahin rahti hai to der-saber bears apni khoyi hui positions hasil kar lenge.

USD/JPY H1 Tahlil

Halqa (H1) chart par USD/JPY pair ab 158.368 par beech mein flat trading kar raha hai, jo ke chart ke upper half mein position hai. Yeh level consolidation phase ko darshata hai jab pair haal hi ki harkaton ke baad saans lene ki koshish kar raha hai. Instaforex ke forum par di gayi indicators ke mutabiq, pehle buyers ka ek group slight advantage rakhta hai jis ka profit margin 53.11% hai. Lekin doosra hissa indicator southward trend ki possibility ko suggest karta hai, jo market ke agle move mein uncertainty ka element jod deta hai.

Technical Analysis

Resistance aur Support Levels:

- Resistance: Nazdeeki resistance level 158.50 par hai, jo ke pair ne paar karne mein mushkil ka samna kiya hai. Agar pair is level ko paar karta hai, to agla target 159.00 ke aas paas hai, jo ke ek significant round number hai aur jise selling pressure attract kar sakta hai.
- Support:Neeche ki taraf, immediate support level 158.00 par hai, jo haal ki sessions mein floor ke roop mein kaam aaya hai. Is level ke neeche girne se aur declines ki darwaza khul sakti hai, 157.50 aur phir 157.00 ki taraf.

Moving Averages:

- H1 chart par 50-period Moving Average (MA) thoda upwards trend mein hai, jo short term mein bullish undertone darsha raha hai. Lekin price abhi is moving average ke kareeb hai, jo ke dynamic support ka ek test hone ki possibility dikhata hai.
- 200-period MA aur neeche hai, jo 157.50 ke aas paas support zone ko reinforce karta hai, jo ek critical level hai downturn ke case mein.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

- RSI 50 mark ke aas paas hover kar raha hai, jo ek neutral stance indicate karta hai. Yeh neutrality yeh dikhata hai ke na bulls aur na hi bears ka decisive upper hand hai, jo current flat trading behavior ke saath align hota hai.

Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY pair ke fundamental background mein kuch key factors shamil hain:

US Economic Data:

- Haal hi mein US se aane wale economic data, jaise inflation figures aur labor market statistics, mixed rahe hain. Jabki labor market strong hai, lekin inflationary pressures jari hain, jo Federal Reserve ke interest rates ke baare mein speculation ko lekar laaye hain.
- Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ke stance par jo bhi hints milenge, especially rate hikes ya cuts ke, woh USD/JPY pair par significant influence daalenge. Agar Fed officials se hawkish comments aaye to USD ko boost mil sakta hai, jo pair ko upar le ja sakta hai, jabki dovish remarks pair ko niche le ja sakte hain.





Japanese Economic Data:

- Japan mein focus Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke ultra-loose monetary policy par hai. Kisi bhi changes ya policy adjustments ke hints JPY ki strength par asar daal sakte hain. Haal hi mein BoJ ne apne stance ko maintain kiya hai, lekin koi tightening ki taraf shift bhi yen ko support de sakta hai.

Geopolitical Factors:

- Geopolitical developments, jaise East Asia mein tensions ya global trade dynamics mein changes, USD/JPY pair par bhi asar daal sakte hain. Traders ko market sentiment ko impact karne wali khabron par alert rehna chahiye.

Market Sentiment

Instaforex ke indicators ke mutabiq market sentiment mein pehle buyers ka slight bullish bias hai, jahan profit margin 53.11% hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke pair mein kuch confidence hai ke uski value maintain ya increase ho sakti hai. Lekin doosre hisse ke indicator mein southward trend ka suggestion caution deta hai. Yeh indicators ke divergence current market ki indecision ko highlight karte hain.

Trading Strategy

Di gayi analysis ke mutabiq, prudent trading strategy mein shamil hoga:

- Long Positions:Agar pair 158.50 resistance level ko paar karta hai, to long positions enter karne ka consider karein, targets 159.00 tak aur stops just below 158.00.
- Short Positions:Agar pair 158.00 support level ke neeche jaata hai, to short opportunities ke liye dekhein, targets 157.50 aur phir 157.00 tak, stops just above 158.50.

Muqadma mein, USD/JPY pair ki 158.368 par flat trading market ko wait-and-see mode ko reflect karta hai, jo slight bullish sentiment aur potential bearish moves ke beech balance mein hai. Key technical levels aur upcoming economic data releases ko monitor karna pair ke next steps navigate karne ke liye crucial hoga.

USD/JPY currency pair ek interesting rasta par hai jab yeh apni upward momentum regain karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Haal hi mein, yeh pair 155.76 level par significant resistance ka samna kar raha tha. Bulls ki koshish ke bawajood, candlestick is critical zone ko break karne mein kamiyaab nahi hui, jo dikhata hai ke yeh abhi bhi further gains ke liye ek strong barrier hai. Technical charts dikhate hain ke USD/JPY ne mukhtalif economic indicators aur market sentiments ki wajah se kai fluctuations face kiye hain. 155.76 par bounce yeh suggest karta hai ke substantial buying interest mojood hai, jo support provide karta hai aur further decline ko rokta hai. Bullish traders ke liye yeh bounce ek pivotal moment hai, jo upward trend ko resume karne ke liye ek potential turning point signal karta hai. Lekin, candlestick ka 155.76 zone ko break na kar paana yeh dikhata hai ke bears abhi bhi considerable pressure exert kar rahe hain. Yeh aik aise scenario create karta hai jahan market participants ko strength ya weakness ke signs closely dekhne chahiye. Agar pair is resistance level ko break karta hai, toh yeh ek nayi upward move lead kar sakta hai, jo higher resistance levels ko target kar sakti hai.
Fundamental factors bhi USD/JPY ke behavior mein ek crucial role play karte hain. Economic data releases, central bank policies, aur geopolitical developments sab pair ke movements ko influence karte hain. Misal ke taur par, US Federal Reserve ka interest rates par stance US dollar ki strength ko significantly impact karta hai, jabke Japan ki economic outlook aur Bank of Japan ki policies yen ki performance ko affect karti hain. Iske ilawa, market sentiment aur risk appetite bhi pair ke trajectory ko influence karte hain. Global uncertainty ke dauran, yen aksar US dollar ke against safe haven ki tarah strengthen hota hai. Iske muqabil, optimism aur risk-taking ke periods mein, US dollar yen ke against gain karta hai. Traders aur investors jab USD/JPY pair ko monitor karte hain, toh technical analysis tools jaise ke moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur Fibonacci retracement levels provide valuable insights kar sakte hain potential future movements ke bare mein. Yeh tools trends, overbought ya oversold conditions, aur key support aur resistance levels ko identify karne mein madadgar hote hain.

Main samajhta hoon ke yen ke liye yeh waqt kisi bhi waqt barhne ke liye nahi hai. Lagta hai ke rate ek ghaate wale trend ke liye tayyar ho raha hai jabke future move ke liye aur structures banane me lag gaya hai. Misaal ke taur par, 155.97 level shayad ek mazeed kami shuru karne ke liye ek acha point hoga. Agar hum is level ko tor dete hain, toh main shayad ise is price ke neeche ek nayi kami dekhne ke liye mazeed kami umeed karoonga. Jamaaluddin, yeh baat waqia ke baad saaf ho jayegi. Yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke 154.68 tak ek kami nahi hai, is liye buyers ke liye aise ek ghaate wale trend me hona aasan nahi hoga. Main is waqt USD/JPY khareedne ke liye trade kholne ki tajwez nahi doonga, kyunki ke trend ka ulat janney ki buland imkaanat hain. Agar yeh hota hai, toh potential nuqsan ko mustawi main zaroore karna hoga, aur aise halat se nikalna intehai mushkil hoga. Pehle neeche gaya, aur mazeed neeche jayega. Magar yeh jald khatam ho jayega kyun ke RSI par ek haftawar tafreeq hai. Isay shuru karne ke liye, yeh lazmi hai ke dobara 161 figure tak uthaye aur phir sirf usi waqt tak is time zone tak aur neeche giraye. Yahan pe kaam mein 145 figure hoga.




Magaar, yeh itna jald nahi hoga, jab tak yeh ek haftewar mudda nahi hai. Aur abhi ke market ke liye, bs isay neeche girana hai, kyun ke USD aaj girega. Mojooda halat ek ghaate wale trend ko follow karte hain, jo ke shayad US dollar ke kamzori se wabasta hai kyun ke Fed be yaqeeni tor par apne currency ko kamzor karna chahti hai. Agar ek neeche ki harkat jald hi qaaim ho jati hai, toh main yaqeenan yeh kah sakta hoon ke hum mashriqi rehnuma ke sath jaari rakhne ke liye badal jayenge. Is maamlay mein, asal support line 154.49 level hai, jo ke kuch hafton ke andar qaaim hone wale aik mustawar toul ko agarqaam kar sakta hai. Agar technical indicators mazeed kami ka naahi foretell karte hain, aur USD/JPY ko barhna shuru karte hain, toh yeh ummeed karnap adega ke 155.98 level par rukavat aayegi, mumkin hai ke 154 figure mai mngnea bwajood ki hai. Aise scenario mein, USD/JPY pair apni direction badal sakta hai aur ek mukamal giravat ke bajaye, wo shuru se barhna shuru karega, jo ke hone wali harkat ke overall dynamics me badalav ka rasta kholega aur ek aur tafreeq ke muqam ko khol dega, bass divergence ke hisab se.

## USD/JPY H1 Tanqeed

Is waqt, USD/JPY jodi 158.368 par qaim hai aur ye ghante ke (H1) chart ke ooperi nisf mein mojood hai. Ye level isharay deta hai ke jodi halat-e-hazra ke baad dam le rahi hai, haal hi mein harkat ke baad. Instaforex ke mutabiq numaindah pehlay kharidaron ki tadaad 53.11% ke munafa ke sath halki fawazat rakhti hai. Lekin doosra hissa ishara deta hai ke aane wale rukh ki taraf, jo market ke agle qadam mein ghumao ki mumkinat ko izhar karta hai.

### Takneeki Tanqeed

**Muzdalfa aur Support Ke Level:**
- **Muzdalfa:** Qareebi muzdalfa level 158.50 par hai, jo ek nafsiyati rukawat hai jise jodi ko paar karne mein mushkilat aayi hain. Agar jodi is level ko paar kar leti hai, to agla maqsood 159.00 ke aas paas hai, jo farokht dabao ko moheet kar sakta hai.
- **Support:** Neeche ki taraf, sab se qareebi support level 158.00 par hai, jo haal hi mein kuch sessions mein farsh ka kaam karta hai. Agar is level ke neeche gir jaye, to mazeed giravat 157.50 aur phir 157.00 ke taraf khul sakti hai.

**Moving Averages (Harkat Patey):**
- H1 chart par 50-period Moving Average (MA) thora oopar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo chhote arsay mein bullish jazbat ko zahir karta hai. Lekin abhi keemat is harkat patey ke qareeb hai, jo ek dinamic support ki imtehan hone ki nishani hai.
- 200-period MA mazeed neeche hai, jo 157.50 ke aas paas support zone ko mazboot karta hai, agar giravat ho.

**Relative Strength Index (RSI):**
- RSI 50 mark ke aas paas hai, jo neutral moqaam ko zahir karta hai. Ye bayaan karta hai ke na to bullish aur na hi bearish samundar ko koi faisle ki taaqat hai, jo ab waqt ki muhalif trading rawaiya ke saath mawafiq hai.

### Bunyadi Tanqeed

USD/JPY jodi ke bunyadi pehlu mein kuch ahem factors shaamil hain:

**Amreeki Maaloomat-e-Tanzeem (US Economic Data):**
- Haal hi mein US se maaloomat, jaise ke moharirat ki figures aur qoumi moqarar ehsaas, mix reh chuki hain. Jabke qoumi moqarar ehsaas, mazboot hai, to inflation ki dabao nay moqarar ehsaas ko shadid kar diya hai, jis se Federal Reserve ke interest rates ke baare mein guftagu hoti hai.
- Federal Reserve ki raay, khas tor par koi izharat ya kamiyon ke baare mein, USD/JPY jodi par asar andaz hoti hai. Agar Federal Reserve ke afraad ke taur par taur kariyan aayein to USD ko barha sakti hai, jis se jodi ko ooper jata hai, jabke jafa raayein gir sakti hain.

**Japani Maaloomat-e-Tanzeem (Japanese Economic Data):**
- Japan mein tawaja Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki sakhti se jari rehne wali monetary policy par hai. Koi tabdeeli ya sakhti ki ishaarat JPY ki mazbooti ko asar andaz kar sakti hain. Haal hi mein BoJ ne apni stance jari rakhi hai, lekin kisi tabdeeli ki soorat mein sakhti JPY ki mazbooti ko barha sakti hai.

**Alami Siyasi Mamlaat (Geopolitical Factors):**
- Alami siyasi tashkeel, jaise ke East Asia mein tanazaat ya global trade ke tawarukat, USD/JPY jodi par asar andaz hote hain. Karobarion ko kisi bhi khabar se alaqaat rakhni chahiye jo market ke tabdeeli mein asar andaz ho sakti hai.

### Market Tanqeed

Market ki tashkeel, jaise ke Instaforex ke indicators se, pehlay kharidaron mein halka bullish rawaiya zahir karta hai, jis ke munafa ke 53.11% hote hain. Ye ishara karta hai ke jodi ki qeemat ko barqarar rakhne ya izafa karne mein kuch itmenan hai. Lekin dusri hissa jo ishara deta hai ke aane wale rukh mein, wo sahulat se mutaliq hai. Ye indicators ki furqat mojood hai aur ishara karta hai ke market ki haalat mein inkar hai.

### Karobar Ki Rahnama'i

Mojooda tanqeed ke mutabiq, aqalmandana karobar ki rahnama'i mein shamil hoti hai:

- **Lambi Positions:** Jodi agar 158.50 muzdalfa level ko paar kare to lambi positions ki soorat mein dakhil ho jayein, maqsad 159.00 ke aas paas hai, aur stops 158.00 ke neeche rakhein.
- **Mukhtasar Positions:** Agar jodi 158.00 support level ke neeche gir jaye to mukhtasar mouqaat talaash karein, maqsad 157.50 aur phir 157.00 ke aas paas hai, stops 158.50 ke ooper rakhein.

Mukhtasar mein, USD/JPY jodi ki 158.368 par taqreban barabar trading market asar andaz hai, jo halka bullish jazbat aur mumkin bearish qadam ke darmiyan mojood hai. Ahem takneeki levels aur qareeb ane wale maaloomat-e-tanzeem ke nashriyat ko nazar andaaz karna jodi ke agle qadam ki raahat mein khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai.

Achha din! Hamari tajziyaat jari rakhte hue, hum USD/JPY currency pair ki chaar ghante ke chart par tashkeel-e-siroch ka mushahidah kar rahe hain. Ye tajziya in do sets ke nichlay uchhalte aur nichlay low ke qaim hone par mabni hai, jo tashkeel-e-iroch ki mojudgi ko tasdeeq karte hain. Halanki, abhi momekinon ne 155 figure ke beech markaz ke ird gird mazeed chhota intraday low qaim kiya hai. Technical nazar se, yeh ishaara dete hain ke ek mumkin wapas rawani takliqa hai, jaisa ke chaar ghante ka stochastic oscillator ishara karta hai.

Magar, umeed ki jati hai ke USD/JPY pair 157.20 level ke aas paas rukavat ka samna karega, jo tashkeel-e-siroch ke ooperi sarhad ke sath milti hai. Umeed ki jati hai ke jab yeh rukavat tak pahunche, to pair apna neeche ki rah jaari rakhega. Is momekin uthne ke bawajood, pair ki quotes ab bhi active selling zone ke andar rengne ki sanad dene ka imkan hai, jo bare guddon ko unka asar barqarar rakhne ki ijazat deta hai.

Agar zigzag indicator dawara agla qareebi ziada se ziada darja ka pata lag jaata hai, yeh pair ko khareedne ke liye aik mauqa bhi paish kar sakta hai. Magar, fiqa stop-loss istemal karne ki mashwara di jati hai kyun ke asli sabab jo US dollar ko Japanese yen ke khilaf hoslon mein taqat dene wale hain, unka itmina nahi huwa hai. Meri trading strategy asaan hai: main aik purbharosa crossover talash karta hoon, khas tor par 156.220 ke price level par, takay mera dakhil ho jaye.

Dakhilay ke hawale se, main mojooda price ka istemal karne ke liye moddajar hota hoon. Agar keemat wapas hoti hai, to 9 aur 22 minimum levels zoroori taur par maujooda halaat par mazeed wazihaayi dete hain. Ye tools traders dawara mashhoor aur wasee istemal kiye jate hain.

Chalo apne chart par ek nazar daalte hain taake hamain mumkinah trading signals ka pata chale. Chaar ghante ka stochastic oscillator nazdeek wallpapers ka taqreeban ishaara deta hai, jise yeh maane ja sakta hai ke ek chand muddatawali harkat ho sakti hai. Magar, overall lehja ghaate zada hai, aur tashkeel-e-siroch yeh dikhata hai ke kisi bhi upri harkat ki rukavat sirf 157.20 rukavat ke saath mehdood ho sakti hai.





Zigzag indicator, jo ahem keemati harkat aur trends ka pata lagane me madad deta hai, yeh ishara deta hai ke pair jald hi rukavat ka samna kar sakta hai. Ye hamari afsosakrt iltija ke sath miltahai ke ek chota wapasawar ke baad ek aptayeda kami hoti rehi hogi. Ye ahem ha ke ye levels nazdeek se nigaah baand rakhti hai takay short positions ke liye behtareen dakhilay ke point taye kiye ja sakein.

Is ke ilawa, simple moving averages (SMAs) ka istemal aur bhi tawun dene wala tha. 9-marla aur 22-marla ke SMAs khas tor par chota faaslay ke trends aur mumkin palat jaane ke pehchan me madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Jab price in moving averages se guzarti hai, to ye trend ki rukh mein tabdeeli ki ishara deti hai, jo traders ke liye qeemati maloomat faraham karti hai.

Mukhtasir karun, jab ke USD/JPY pair me muddatawala wapas rawani ka imkan ho sakta hai, to overall lehja tashkeel-e-siroch ke andar ghaate zade rehne wala hai. Mumkinah dakhilay ke liye 156.220 aur rukavat ke tor par 157.20 key levels ko dekhna zaroori hai. Stochastic oscillator, zigzag indicator, aur moving averages ke istemal sefi optimal trading signals taye karne mein madad faraham karti hai aur hamari strategy ke asar ko barhaati hai.

In indicators aur levels par nazar rakh kar, traders maloomat par mabni faislay kar sakte hain aur USD/JPY pair ke price movements me pesh kardah martabe ke fursat ke moqaat ka faida utha sakte hain.

USD-JPY JODI KA TAJZIYA

Pichle do hafton mein, bechne wale ne USDJPY market mein zor se zahir ho gaye, pichle haftay mein bohot bari harkat thi bechne wale ki zor se taqat ke baais aur is haftay ka scene taqreeban waisa hi hai, maine dekha ke JPY market ki ek khasiyat ye hoti hai ke jab aik bari harkat hoti hai, ya to bechne wale ya khareedne wale ki dabao ke bais, wo had se zyada taqat ke sath zahir ho sakti hai, jaise ke past two weeks mein USDJPY market mein ho raha hai, bechne walo ki zor se taqat ek bohot bari rozana range bana leti hai aur ye kaafi hairan kun hai kyunke bechne wale ka zor se pressurize hona hota hai jab USDJPY market ki halat bullish trend ke tor par chal rahi hoti hai.

Maine USDJPY market ki situtation ko daily timeframe se map kiya jisne support trend line ko kaamyabi se penetrate kiya, is situtation se main ye andaza laga raha hoon ke ye trigger banay ga jo bechne walo ki taqat ko mazeed push karne ke liye laayega USDJPY ke price ko nichay le jane ke liye, ye bhi mumkin hai ke bechne wale USDJPY market ki trend ki taluqat ko ulat jayenge bullish se bearish trend mein jaise ke mojooda daily timeframe se dekha ja raha hai, bechne wale MA100 indicator ka muqabla karenge, main ye andaza laga raha hoon ke bechne walo mein kaafi taqat hogi MA100 indicator ko penetrate karne aur trend situtation ko ulatne ka aeham faisla karne ke liye.

USDJPY market mein trading ki mushwarat
Main andaza lagata hoon ke situation extreme ho chuki hai USDJPY market mein, bechne walon ka dominancy qaim rahegi USDJPY market par aur wo price ko nichay le jane ke liye dabao dalte rahenge aur main ye andaza laga raha hoon ke bechne walon ke liye aasan hoga MA100 indicator ko penetrate karna trading ke baad kal support trend line kaamyabi se penetrate kiya gaya tha jo ke bullish trend situtation ke khilaf ek mudafa the, main ye mashwara deta hoon ke bechne walon ke flow ka taabeer karen USDJPY market par entry sell signals dhoondne par tawajjo den aur aaj ki trading mein jo bechne walon ki taqat shakl le chuki hai unki taraf dhyan den entry sell signal ke tor par.

H4 chart mein USD/JPY

Pichle hafte ke ikhtitam par, jori ne aik musbat note par band kiya, us amomi upar ki rut mein jari rahe trend ka silsila jo poore haftay mein dekha gaya tha. Is mahine ke ibtedai dino mein, jori ne kharidar pattern ke andar trading shuru ki, jo oopar ki taraf chaalte hue channels ke sath tha jo pichle do mahinon ke dauran ke price trend ko muntashir karta tha. Price ne pehle mahine ka pivot level 158.10 se support hasil kiya lekin phir aik neeche mazboot lehar mein dakhil hua, mahine ka pivot level tor karne ke baad girne ka silsila jari raha. Price ne mahine ka level 157.50 par support paya, jisse usne uthaya aur pichle hafte ko mahine ke pivot level ke upar band kiya. Jab price is mahine ke opening level ke qareeb pohunchta hai, to ye aane wale dino mein mazeed uthne ki nishani deta hai. Main dekhta hoon ke channel ke darmiyan line ke qareeb 155.56 price level par kami anay wali hai. Haal hil ke exchange rate izafa ke baad, ab girawat jari hai. Anon ka zahir ho raha hai, us ke baad girawat jari rahegi. Main kisi khaas tezi ka sabab nahi dekhta; girawat is theek karne wale izaafi ke baad jari rahegi. Main 159.36 ka imtehana expect karta hoon, us ke baad girawat dobara shuru hogi. Waqt ke sath, price mahine ke liye neeche khinchai jayegi, kharidoron ko mazeed market se bahar nikalne ke liye zor dalti hai aur unhe yakeen dilati hai ke unhay neeche ke levels par bechna theek hai. Hum 159.44 par aik ghalat todne ki umeed kar sakte hain, jise ek musallat girawat follow karegi. Pasandidgi ki taraf exchange rate ko neeche le jana aur darmiyan muddat mein bechune ke amal ko kholna sab se ahem hoga, khaaskar agar range 157.29 mumkin hai.




Jumeraat ko, Japanese yen tazi tor par 157.41 ke muqable mein US dollar ki taraf uth gaya, aik pehle 38 saal aur neeche ke 161.5 se. Ye khulla zabt peecha pecha ek ke pehle din ke bayanak inflation data ke ikhtetaam ka tha United States mein, jo dollar par dabao dala aur expectations ko mazid taqwiyat di ke Federal Reserve qareeb mein US interest rates ko kam karega. Aik aisa amal substantial interest rate differential ko chotay kardega Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan, jinhon ne yea accommodate stance ley liay hai ke yen ka wazan bharat saal pe giravat. USD/JPY jori ka chandni se charha hua 161.5 se neeche level wazania economic data releases ka asar aata hai forex markets par. Inflation data namwar taur par aik crucial role ada karta hai ke yeh sidha taur par markazi bank policies pe asar dalta hai. Haal hi ke weak US inflation figures marka participants ke ikhtiyaat ko roshan kar chuke hain ek potential shift ke liye Federal Reserve's monetary policy mein, tightening se easing ki taraf move karte hue, jo dollar ka yen ke muqable apna appeal reduce kardega. Technical taur par dekha gaya to, USD/JPY ka 38 saal ke neeche se charhana aik correction ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai ek broad downtrend ke andar. Jori ka 157.41 ki taraf chalna yeh dikahta hai ke market naye economic realties ke mutabik adjust ho raha hai aur interest rate policies ke expectations ko recalibrate kar raha hai. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels ko nazar andaz karne chahiye taake jori ka potential future direction ko behtar taur pe samajh sakein.

USD/JPY jori ab financial markets mein mazboot aur mustaqil izafa ka samna kar rahi hai. Ye bullish rukh kisi mazeed tajziya mein koi numainda tanazzul ke aehwal nahi dikhata, jo darust rukh ke jari rahne ka ishara deta hai. Analysts tehqiq kar rahe hain ke kisi bhi mumkin choti bearish tanaza'ulat ke maayani wisarat ka ta'aluq tor murad nahi hai, jo market sentiment ke dominion mein bazri boorish mansubaein madde nazar hai. Aglay dekho, market projections darust kehte hain ke saalana uchayiyan ponchne ki mazeed ke tasawarat abhi 156.50 ke markaz par hain. Is ke ilawa, barhti hui tajzia ke mutabiq upar ke izafa exchange rate ko mazeed bharne ki taqwiyati mumkinat hai, jo shayad 165 yen per dollar tak pohunch sakti hai. Ye tasawarat 170 ya 178 yen per dollar ke aas paas darje tak mazeed behtarfeeniyo ki taraf rasta bana rahi hain, jo USD/JPY jori mein aik barguzidi bullish daur ko numaindan kar rahi hai.

Tasweer ke liye baray version ke liye tasveer par click karen:

Mausami market dynamics se mawafiq mahool tasveer USD/JPY pair ke andar lambi positionon per tawajjo dene wale investors aur traders ke liye acha saabit ho raha hai. Jabke upar ka rukh istehkam aur taaqat dikhata hai, market ke hissa dene wale shakhs taawon se badqismati ki umeedain barhate ja rahe hain. Ye aitmad ko azeem tanaza'ulat ka sahara mil raha hai aur haal hi ke trading sessions mein dekha gaya mustqil boorish izafa.




Ek technical analysis ke nazariye se, indicators buyer ke liye faideemand shurat ke fawa'id signal kr rahe hain, jab ke pair mazeed tanaza'ulon ke bina apna uthal pathal jari rakhta hai. Ye technical outlook yeh soch par sabit karta hai ke market ka jeet ke mizaj mustaqil wajood rakhta hai, sath hi buying pressure agley sessions mein jari rehne ka imkaan hai. Barodaar economic manzar se nazar dalte hue, factors jese interest rate ke farq US aur Japan ke darmiyan, geopolitical developments, aur market sentiment ke lehaz se risk assets play pivotal roles ada karte hain USD/JPY pair ke rukh ko muratab banane mein.

USD/JPY Jodi Tahlil

Aaj, USD/JPY jori ne ahem sakht tajarbat diye, buland satahon par trade hui aur 168.39-168.69 range ke andar band hui. Ab jodi ne thori si kami mehsoos ki hai, ab 168.93-168.40 ke darmiyan chalti hai. D1 (daily) chart ka tajziah karte hue, hum dekhte hain ke USD/JPY D1 moving average line par 168.470 ki support level ki taqat ko test kar rahi hai.

Maujooda Market Dynamics

USD/JPY jodi ne ghanudgi dikhayi hai, jo bari market sentiment aur economic conditions ko numainda karti hai. Maujooda market dynamics ko kai factors shamil hain, jin mein shamil hain:

1. Interest Rate Farq
- Federal Reserve Policy: America ki Federal Reserve ki mudaribana policy USD/JPY jodi ko asar andaz banane mein ahem kirdar ada karti hai. Haaliye tak interest rate bare hone ya inflation ke shorurat se ooncha rakhne ki koi nishanat U.S. dollar ko yen ke muqablay mein mazbooti de sakti hain.
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy: Dealun ye hai ke Bank of Japan ki faramosh nizamati policy, jise negative interest rates aur yield curve control shamil hain, mutaghayyar kar deti hai. Federal Reserve aur BoJ ke beech mudarab qaim monetary policies USD/JPY exchange rate par baradari asar dalti hain.

2. Economic Data ki Ishaat
- U.S. Economic Indicators: America se aham economic data jese ke GDP growth rates, rozgar ke figures, aur inflation data seedha tor par U.S. dollar ki mazbooti par asar dalte hain. Musbat data aam tor par mazboot dollar ka sahara hota hai.
- Japanese Economic Indicators: Japan mein, economic indicators jese ke industrial production, retail sales, aur inflation data bhi ek kirdar ada karte hain, magar unka asar BoJ policies ke samne kum ho sakta hai.

3. Geopolitical Events
- Geography ke tang aur waqiat aise halalive assets jese ke Japanese yen ke leye izafa taleef kar sakti hain. Magar haal hi mein U.S. dollar bhi ek safe-haven currency ke tor par dekha ja raha hai, jo is ke interaction ko yen ke sath barhava dete hain geopolotical instability ke dauran.





4. Risk Sentiment
- Dunya bhar ke risk sentiment, masail jese ke trade tensions, siyasi taraqqiyat, aur global economic outlook USD/JPY jodi par asar andaz hote hain. Risk ko ta'aluq mein doran ehm investors aam tor par safe-haven assets ki taraf bhagte hain, jo yen ko mazboot kar sakti hain.

Takneeki Tahlil

Takneeki lehaz se, USD/JPY jodi ab daily moving average line par 168.470 support level ko test kar rahi hai. Ye level ahem hai kyun ke ye jodi ka agla qadam tae karsakta hai.

- Support aur Resistance Levels: Fori support 168.470 par hai. Agar ye level qaim rahe, to humned expect kar sakte hain ke 168.69 ke qareeb recent highs ki taraf ek rebound dekhne ko milega aur shayad mazeed buland satah tak bhi pahonch sakte hain. Magar, agar is support ke neeche sustana tor par toot jaye, to mazeed giravat ka samna kar sakte hain.
- Moving Averages: Pair ka muamla ahem moving averages (jese 50-day aur 200-day moving averages) ke sath position, trend ke baray mein mazeed wazayegah faraham karenge. Haaliye, moving average line par support level ke qareeb trading, ek ahem tahreek ka hisa hai.
- Volume aur Momentum Indicators: Volume aur momentum indicators jese ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka monitar karna mojooda trend ki mazbooti aur mumkin reversals ke baray mein mazeed wazayegah faraham kar sakta hai.

Ikhtitami Guftagu

USD/JPY jodi ab tak high karobar aur ghanudgi ka samna kar rahi hai, jo economic indicators, central bank policies, aur bari market sentiment ke mishraq hote hain. Haal hi ke daily moving average line par 168.470 support level ka test aik ahem takneeki points hai jo traders ko taawon dena chaiye. Is level se uthna ek upward trend ka sabaq dene wala raasta ho sakta hai, jabke is se neeche girna mazeed downside potential ke iasharahat ho sakti hai. Ahem economic data ki isha'at, interest rate ke faislay, aur global risk sentiment par nazar rakna jodi ke agle qadmon ko samajhne ke liye ahem hai.

Japani Yen ne haal hee mein US Dollar ke khilaf qowat dikhayi, jabke Treasury yields ki aam uptrend ne greenback ko taqwiyat di thi. Ye ulta seedha harkat aam tor par Japnai authorities ke intervention ki tawaqo se wabasta hai jo Yen ki tezi se decrease ko roknay ke liye qadam uthane ki umeedain shamil hain. Halat ko aur bhi mushkilat ka samna hai jab US se mukhtalif economic indicators pesh hain. Jab ke kam se kam US Consumer Price Index (CPI) ki data ne Dollar ki taqwiyat ko pehle kam kiya, agle reports jese ke Michigan Consumer Confidence Index aur US Producer Price Index (PPI) wazeer insights faraham karne ka imkan dete hain US ki economic trajectory ke hawale se. Darasal, Japan ne Yen ko stabilise karne ke liye qaidiy astiyal uthaye hain, july ke 11 tarikh ko currency purchase krne ke liye arabon kharch kiye. Government officials ne bhi ishaara kia hai ke zarurat par aur measures ikhtiyar kiye jayenge. Magar aakhri faisla monetary policy ke leye Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke haath mein hai, jo aane wale July ke meeting mein interest rates ko barhane ka imkan keh raha hai inflationary pressure ko address karne ke liye.

[dheeraj k liye]>In my view, the yen has strengthened, which can be triggered by the fall in Treasury yields, which can secure assets, said the chief executive officer of the world's largest currency company.Transaction Bank AG. "We need to wait for the interpretation of this week's US economic report before reaching a final conclusion."

USDJPY ANALYSIS JULY 18, 2024

Market pair UsdJpy timeframe jo ke Wednesday ko huwa tha, uss din bhi sellers dominate kar rahe the, jo ke price ko kaafi gehrai tak bearish le gaye the. Buyers phir se price ko upar le jane mein nakam rahe kyun ke woh seller ke resistance area 158.48-158.45 ko break nahi kar sake, jise sellers ne phir se selling pressure increase karne ke liye use kiya aur price ko kaafi taqat se neeche bearish le gaye.



Daily timeframe pe Bollinger bands indicator use karte hue dekha gaya hai ke price ko ab bhi sellers ne maintain kiya hua hai jo ke UsdJpy market pair ko control kar rahe hain aur successfully Lower Bollinger bands area 157.04-157.00 ko break kiya jo ke pehle buyers ne maintain kiya tha. Strong seller pressure bhi dikh raha hai jahan pe kaafi strong bearish candlesticks dominate kar rahi hain jo indicate karti hain ke UsdJpy market pair aur bhi neeche bearish jayega, agle bearish target ke sath jo ke buyer's demand support area 152.75-152.70 pe hai, jo ke ab tak bearish seller pressure se test nahi kiya gaya.

Thursday ko European market session se pehle dekha gaya ke buyers wapas aa gaye hain jo ke sellers se zyada strong hain, jo ke buyer's support area 155.60-155.50 ko todne mein mushkil mein hain, jo ke buyers ne maintain kiya tha aur price reverse kar ke bullish move hua. Bullish buyer target yeh koshish kar raha hai ke price ko seller's resistance area 157.80-157.84 tak le jaye. Agar buyer is area ke upar penetrate karne mein fail hota hai, to price wapas neeche bearish move karega aur bearish target buyer support area 155.27-155.25 tak hoga.

Conclusion:

Sell entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar seller nearest buyer support area 155.27-155.25 ko tod de, TP target area 154.38-154.35 pe.

Buy entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar buyer nearest seller resistance area 157.80-157.84 ko upar tod de, TP target area 159.50 pe.

Pichle trading week mein, American dollar ne apne powerful decline ke saath sellers ko khush kiya. US ke aane wali khabrein bahut se ummeid se buri nikli aur keemat neeche daud gayi, lekin American sirf Japanese currency ke khilaf nahi girya, balkay yeh almost poora market spectrum mein girya. Canadian dollar ke alawa, yeh ab tak unshakable hai. Karib 400 points bohot jaldi neeche utar gaye. Girawat ke doran, keemat ne ek upward support line mein support paya jo waves ke bottoms ke saath banai gayi thi aur ise wapas chadha, phir aur ek neeche aur wapas aur phir line ke taraf dabaya gaya. Magar wave structure apna order upward banata hai, MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein hai, lekin ab apni signal line se neeche hai. Aur ab do options hain. Ya phir dobara barhna aur horizontal resistance level 160.30 ke area tak pohanch jana, ya neeche ja ke upward line ko toorna. Main level ki taraf hoon kyunki CCI indicator lower overheating zone mein hai aur aap ispe ek growth signal dekh sakte hain - bullish convergence. Aur line par buniyaad par, yeh kaafi accha signal hai. Aur general mein, yeh agar yeh ke upper trend poori tarah se khatam nahi hua hai aur ek gehra correction aayega. Shayad aur bechna chahiye jo sochte hain, achha, aakhir kar, ek palat aya, to price ab ek den ke liye yahin side chalega. Yaahan positions jama hongi aur yeh unhe aasani se phir se puray tak kheench sakte hain, jab ke resistance level 160.32 ko paar kar lenge. Har surat mein, agar hum sales ko dekhte hain, to ab line ke upar seedha sahi jagah nahi hai. Lekin main wakai kharidna bhi nahi chahta kyunki yeh line pahle se kaafi decent departures di hai, haalanki yahan sirf ek line nahi, balki ek horizontal support level 157.72 bhi hai.





USD/JPY Acha din! Ek technical basis par, humein ummeeed hai ke USD/JPY currency pair ek pehle se bani huee chaar ghante ki trend ko develop krega, jo pehle ke muqam se neeche last local maximums aur minimums dwara emphasize kiya gaya hai. Iske ilawa, ZigZag indicator dwara dikhaye gaye last intraday maximums ne, emphasize kiya ke pair ab barhne ke liye taayyar nahi hai ta ke jab tak Bank of Japan ke currency intervention ke nuqsan wapis nahi hote, kyunki market yakin rakhti hai ke US Federal Reserve ka monetary policy easing bas kuch hi door hai. Is tarah, agar hum khabron ko nahi shamil karte, to USD/JPY pair current position se neeche girna jari rah sakta hai, aur agar current position 159.30 ke sath breakout hua, saath hi moving average line MA14, to shayad shuru mein figure 157 mein jaa kar pair ke current local minimums ko update karne ke liye jaye. Ab, sirf H4 Stochastic technical development dikhata hai, jo pehle se oversold zone mein hai USD/JPY pair ka, isliye jald hi correction ke chances hain, lekin yeh namumkin hai ke bulls current maximum ko update karenge aur figure 159 mein dakhil honge.

USDJPY Analysis July 18, 2024

Market pair UsdJpy ki timeframe jo ke kal, Wednesday ko hua, sellers ke haath mein raha jo ke price ko kaafi neeche bearish lekar gaye jab buyers phir se price upar lekar jane mein naakam rahe kyunke wo seller's resistance area 158.48-158.45 ko tod nahi sake. Yeh mauka sellers ne use kiya taake selling pressure ko barhaya ja sake jo ke price ko kaafi mazboot bearish movement ke saath neeche le aaya.

Daily timeframe par Bollinger bands indicator ko use karte hue dekha ja sakta hai ke price ko sellers ne barqarar rakha hai jo ke UsdJpy market pair ko control kar rahe hain aur successfully Lower Bollinger bands area 157.04-157.00 ko break kiya jo ke pehle buyers ne maintain kiya tha. Strong seller pressure bhi dekha ja sakta hai strong bearish candlesticks se jo ke indicate karte hain ke UsdJpy market pair mazid bearish movement ke saath neeche girta rahega agle bearish target buyer's demand support area 152.75-152.70 par jo ke ab tak bearish seller pressure ke zariye test nahi kiya gaya.

Thursday ke trading mein European market session ke pehle, buyers phir se sellers se zyada mazboot taur par wapas aaye jo ke lagta hai ke ab tak 155.60-155.50 par buyer's support area ko break karne mein muskil mein hain jo ke buyers ne maintain kiya hai taake price reverse direction mein chal kar bullish movement dikha sake. Bullish buyer ka target price ko seller's resistance area 157.80-157.84 tak lekar jana hai. Agar buyer is area ko todne mein naakam hota hai, to price phir se bearish movement ke saath neeche girta rahega bearish target buyer support area 155.27-155.25 tak.

Conclusion:

- Sell entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar seller 155.27-155.25 ke najdeeki buyer support area ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai aur TP target area 154.38-154.35 hai.
- Buy entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar buyer 157.80-157.84 ke najdeeki seller resistance area ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai aur TP target area 159.50-159.53 hai.

USDJPY Pair Ka Technical Analysis

4-Hour Chart

Is haftay ke douran pair mein aur zyada kami ki umeed hai jab ke price ne blue channel ko todne mein kamiy noabi hasil kar li. Price is haftay girti hui price channels mein trade kar rahi hai jo pichle do hafton ka trend dikhati hain. Pehle, price ne neechay wale channel line se support hasil kiya, magar jab price weekly pivot level tak pohnchi, toh niche chali gayi aur weekly pivot ke sath ek peak bana liya.

Is haftay trading advice ye hai ke selling opportunities par focus karein, kyun ke do levels hain jahan se sell kar sakte hain. Pehla level wo hai jahan price ne channel tod diya hai aur kuch waqt tak sideways direction mein chal sakta hai, phir gir ke 156.26 level ko tod sakta hai. Dosra level selling ka 154.61 ke niche ho ga, jahan price ne price channels ko neechay tod diya hai.

Economic side par, Japanese yen ka price recent mein momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam raha hai jab ke authorities currency ki kamzori se nimat rahi hain. Yen kaafi gir chuka hai aur policymakers ne bar bar yeh izhar kiya hai ke wo currency ko support karne ke liye intervene karne ko tayyar hain. Magar kya yeh sab kuch dair ho chuka hai? Bloomberg News ke mutabiq, Tokyo forex markets mein dosray din bhi Friday ko shamil hone wala hai, kariban $13.5 billion pump karte hue. Yeh tab hua jab Japanese officials ne pehle ke kariban $20 billion intervene kiya. Forex market trading ke mutabiq, USD/JPY price 158.80 level par stable rahi, recent selling operations se recover karte hue jo usay 157.15 support level ki taraf le gaye, magar pair phir se girna shuru ho gaya.

Japanese yen ke performance par comment karte hue, Hirofumi Suzuki, chief forex analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation ne Business News Network ko interview mein kaha: “Yeh dikhata hai ke 2 trillion yen ki scale par intervention bohot mumkin hai.” “Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh strategy market participants ko move ko pehle se parhne se rokne ke liye thi.”

Overall, agar yeh move sahi hai, toh latest step aik mahine baad aata hai jab currency regulators ne Forex foreign exchange markets mein $36 billion intervene kiya tha. Experts ka kehna hai ke Tokyo ke leaders measures ko us waqt use kar rahe hain jab ke US data aur foreign speculators release ho rahe hain. Magar market watchers ka kehna hai ke yeh moves traders ko yeh batane ke liye hain ke yeh moves bohot choti hain, observers zyada paisa pump karne ka keh rahe hain taake yen ko support mil sake.