usd/jpy

USD/JPY Prices ke Sath Trading Strategy

Hamara guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ke live imtihaan par markooz hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo natija umeed thi, woh poori tarah se mumkin nahi lag rahi. Is model mein proportion kaafi ahem hai. Humain ek bearish Doji ka signal mila hai, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono apne targets aglay haftay poora karen ge. Pehli surat mein, maine 101 points ki girawat ki tawaqo ki thi baghair spread ke, lekin ab bhi mujhe lagta hai ke yeh trading instrument aur neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq, main expect kar raha hoon ke price 100th level 142.04 se neeche break karega, aur yeh scenario step by step karke 138.1 pe 141.39 aur 161.7 pe 140.82 tak poora ho sakta hai. Agar channel ki upper boundary ki taraf growth hoti hai, toh yeh mufeed hoga, lekin main apni position tab adjust karoon ga jab upar ki taraf ek tez move ho jaye.

143.56 pe price test tab hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ki taraf move kar raha tha, jo selling ke liye ek sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai, jo hum recent months mein downward trend ke tor par dekh rahay hain. Natija yeh hua ke pair mein 60 se zyada pips ki girawat hui. Rebound par 142.90 ke price par purchases ne expected result nahi diya. Kal, Japan ke GDP growth ke kamzor numbers aur bank lending ke volume mein kami ke hawalay se yen ki position par asar hua, jis se pair mein thodi si recovery hui. Magar din ke dosray hissay mein pressure wapas aa gaya, jo yeh darsha raha tha ke kuch log dollar ko zyada behtareen aur munasib prices pe sell karna chahtay hain. Aaj ka report, jo Japan mein money supply aggregate ki change ka tha, pair ko horizontal channel mein rakha hua hai, jis se is baat ka imkaan barh gaya hai ke pair medium-term downward trend mein aur neeche ja sakta hai.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada reliance karoon ga scenario No. 1 aur 2 ke implementation par.

**Buy Signal Scenario No. 1**: Main USD/JPY ko aaj tab khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price 143.45 ke entry point par pohnche ga (green line chart pe), aur mera target 144.01 (chart pe thick green line) ho ga. 144.01 par main apne long positions ko exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein shorts open karoon ga (expect kar raha hoon ke level se 30-35 pips ka move opposite direction mein hoga). Aaj pair mein ek correction ke tor par izafa dekha ja sakta hai. Ahm baat! Buy karne se pehle yeh zaroor dekhein ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar ho aur apni ascent shuru kar raha ho.

Hamara aj ka focus USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ki live analysis par hai. Main ne support level 141.79 se bullish rebound ka andaza lagaya tha, jo local trend line (green, sloping line) tak tha, aur yeh sab "Hammer" reversal pattern ke formation par mabni tha. Is setup ne ek bullish correction ko suggest kiya, isliye ek long position lena munasib tha. Halanki, pehle price upar gai, magar phir sell-off ne 141.79 ka support tor dia aur price ko lower support level 140.17 tak le gaya, jo Stochastic indicator par bullish divergence ke bawajood hua. Main ne "Hammer" pattern ke basis par ek counter-trend buy entry li thi. Agla major target ab psychological level 139.01 hai, jo ke volatility ki wajah se jaldi hit ho sakta hai. Moving average ke aas-paas ek minor correction ka intezar hai, uske baad downward trend ki continuation ka imkaan hai.
Hourly chart par, price abhi tak ek descending channel mein hai. Kal pair neeche gaya, magar channel ke lower boundary ko touch nahi kar saka. Price ka next target ab takreeban 139.74 par hai, jahan ek reversal ka imkaan hai jo price ko channel ke upper boundary tak push kar sakti hai, jo ke 142.18 ke aas-paas hai. Daily chart par 140.35 ka global support level kaafi weak lagta hai, aur double bottom pattern yeh suggest kar raha hai ke current level se ek minor bullish correction ho sakti hai. Lekin, USD/JPY ka aggressive downtrend jari hai, jo ke US dollar ki devaluation aur Japanese yen ki mazbooti ki wajah se hai, aur market mein volatility abhi bhi high hai.

Is haftay USD/JPY ki movement zyada nahi badli kyunki price dominant bearish trend mein hai. Haftay ke end tak, jo price 140.83 se downward move hui, wo bearish phase ko continue kar sakti hai kyunki last Saturday raat market ne apna daily level downward rally ke sath complete kia tha. Major timeframe charts mein trend abhi tak bearish phase mein hai, aur last week ka trend iss haftay bhi bearish movement ko indicate karta hai. Aane wale trend mein sellers kaafi active lagte hain aur wo ek aur bearish leg ke liye ready hain, jo price ko 129.40 - 130.00 ke level tak le ja sakta hai.

Candlestick chart par, price ka movement Moving Average ke neeche stable hai, jo ek mazid bearish trend ko confirm karta hai. Mera andaza hai ke market mein mazeed girawat ho sakti hai, pichlay week ke dominant seller behavior ko dekhte hue. Relative Strength Index (RSI) par Lime Line level 50 se neeche hai, jo ke bearish sentiment ka mazid ishara hai. Aaj aur kal main sirf SELL entries ko target kar raha hoon, kyunki price movement ne 141.00 ke level ka breakout kar liya hai, jo ke bearish trend ke continuation ke liye mazeed opportunities provide kar raha hai.

USD/JPY

Neeche diye gaye chart mein hum USD/JPY exchange rate dekh sakte hain. Jab bhi trade dhoondhni ho, to mein hamesha yeh mashwara deta hoon ke hourly charts dekhein jo major timeframes ke trend ke sath aligned hoon. Aaj Asia mein, Tokyo CPI ka inflation report Japan se aaya hai jo ke 2.6% hai. Yeh forecasted 2.4% se zyada hai, jo bears ke haq mein hai kyunke yeh Bank of Japan ke liye ek aur rate hike ka buniyad bana raha hai is saal ke akhir tak. Lekin aaj ki technique ke sath zyada ehtiyat baratni hogi. Iski wajah yeh hai ke price daily trend line ke upar se gir chuki hai, aur yeh sab us khabar se pehle ho raha hai jo is haftay ki shayad sab se important news hai — personal consumption data USA ka. Yeh inflation report aksar trend ko set karta hai. Main bhi trend line se pair ko sell kar chuka hoon, lekin ab yeh threat mein hai. Sab kuch data par depend karega.

USD/JPY pair mein tez girawat dekhne ko mili, jo 145.00 ke qareeb aayi, aur iski wajah Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish guidance ka asar tha. Ueda ne dobara se yeh wazeh kiya ke BOJ ko is saal mazeed interest rates barhane ki zarurat hai. Unhone zor diya ke agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hoon, to central bank dair nahi karega action lene mein. Is bayaan ne Japanese yen ko mazbooti di, jisse USD/JPY pair par selling pressure aya. Filhal, yeh 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb hai.

US dollar ke mazboot hone ke bawajood, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke 102.00 ke two-week high tak pohanchne se zahir hai, USD/JPY pair ab bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar investors ke ehtiyat baratne ke rujhan ke saath barha hai kyunke aglay US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezar hai jo ke Jumma ko aa raha hai. Yeh economic data bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai kyunke Federal Reserve ab zyadah focus kar raha hai labor market ke downside risks ko manage karne par, jabke inflation ke 2% target tak wapas aane ka yaqeen hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), fresh food ko chhor kar, August mein expect se zyada barha, jo 2.4% tak pohanch gaya, aur Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko justify karta hai.

Stock trading front par, U.S. stock indices mein tez girawat dekhi gayi, khaaskar technology stocks mein... Trading ke mutabiq, U.S. stocks Tuesday ko kaafi neeche gir gaye, aur yeh August 5 ke baad ka sab se bura din tha, jo ke economic concerns aur technology stocks mein major sell-off ki wajah se tha. Iske mutabiq, S&P 500 2.1% neeche gaya, tech-heavy Nasdaq 3.1% gir gaya, aur Dow Jones ne 625 points kho diye.

EUR/JPY currency pair ne Monday ko doosre din bhi girawat dekhi, aur Asian trading session ke doran mid-$155.00 ke neeche trade kiya. Yen ki girawat ka asar yen ke bullish sentiment se tha, magar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki aane wali key policy meeting se pehle follow-through buying ki kami thi. Recent hawkish signals BoJ officials se yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke central bank is saal ke akhir tak interest rates ko aur barha sakta hai. Yeh umeed yen ko support kar rahi hai aur EUR/JPY pair par pressure daal rahi hai. Junko Nakagawa, ek BoJ board member, ne pichle haftay kaha tha ke central bank rate ko aur barha sakta hai agar economy aur inflation uski umeedon ke mutabiq chalti hai. Iske ilawa, Naoki Tamura, doosre BoJ board member, ne Thursday ko yeh suggest kiya tha ke central bank short-term interest rates ko fiscal 2026 tak 1% ke aas-paas le aaye taake apni 2% inflation target ko consistently achieve kar sake. BoJ ka yeh stance European Central Bank (ECB) ke recent decision ke bilkul ulta hai, jisme ECB ne is cycle mein doosri baar interest rates ko kam kiya. ECB ke decision se yeh maloom hota hai ke aane wale mahino mein borrowing costs kam ho sakti hain, jo euro ki relatively weak performance aur EUR/JPY pair par pressure ka ek aur sabab hai.

### **Technical Analysis:**

Kal 1.1020 supply area ke aas-paas consolidation ne kamzor buying interest ko zahir kiya. Jab tak pullback is area ke neeche rahega, mazeed selling expect ki ja rahi hai jo exposed point of control (POC) level 1.0987 tak ja sakti hai, aur bearish zone 1.0965 tak extend ho sakti hai. Agar 1.1020 ke upar break hota hai, toh yeh liquidity search ko trigger kar sakta hai bade volume lots ke aas-paas 1.1044, phir se girawat shuru hone se pehle. Bearish scenario tab tak jari rahega jab tak rebound recent intraday resistance 1.1055 ko decisively break nahi karta. Agar ECB expected se kam rates cut karta hai, toh euro positive react kar sakta hai, aur din ke doran key resistance levels ko break kar sakta hai. Short position open karne se pehle yeh zaroori hai ke exhaustion/reversal (ERP) pattern 1.1020 ke neeche confirm ho. Agar pattern nahi banta, toh next selling zone 1.1044 tak bounce ka intezaar karna aur M5 technical setup ke zariye short entry confirm karna behtar hai. Early aur uncertain entries se bachna chahiye.

USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide USD/JPY ke trading options mein, buy option ab bhi USD/ JPY movement ko dominate karega. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke is currency pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein taake potential losses ko minimize kiya ja sake, kyunki situation rapidly adverse ho sakti hai. USD/JPY mein se kaam lena zaroori hai. Is liye, apne trading plan mein stop loss ko shaamil karna bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai, takay aap apne account ko kisi bhi naqabili tajweez nuksaan se bacha sakein. Market kabhi bhi ghair mutawaqqa tor par chal sakta hai, aur stop loss aapki downside risks ko limit karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai, takay agar market aapke position ke khilaaf chaley, to bhi aapka capital mehfooz rahe.
Is trade mein acha risk-reward ratio barqarar rakhne ke liye stop loss ko aik strategic level par set karna zaroori hoga. Agle chand dinon mein ye wazeh hoga ke kya buyers market mein wapas aa sakte hain aur price ko 141.55 resistance zone ki taraf push kar sakte hain. Agar market sentiment ya USD aur JPY se mutaliq economic indicators mein koi positive developments hoti hain

Jis tarah se hum USD aur JPY ke pair ka tajziya kar rahe hain, yeh waqt ek kaabil-e-zikr neeche ki taraf trend mein hai, jo asal mein Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki mukhtalif monetary policies se mutasir hai. USD/JPY ke haal hi ke girawat ki wajah zyada tar bazar mein 25 basis point (bps) rate cut ki umeedain hain, jo ke Fed ke aane wale September 17-18 ke meeting mein discuss ki jayein gi. Halankeh recent tezi dekhi gayi hai, lekin yeh umeedain US Dollar (USD) ko apne faiday ko mazeed barhane se rok rahi hain. Dosri taraf, bazar mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan Japanese Yen ki safe-haven asset ke tor par demand ko barhawa de raha hai, jo USD/JPY pair par mazeed dabao daal raha hai. Saath hi, BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne tasdeeq ki hai ke bank FY2025 tak interest rates ko barhane ka plan bana raha hai, jo Fed ke umeed ke mutabiq rate cut ke bilkul baraks hai, aur yeh pair ke neeche ki taraf trend ko mazeed barhawa de raha hai. Traders filhal ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain aur koi faisla karnay se pehle US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Fed ke agle policy qadam ke hawale se ahem maloomat faraham karega aur USD/JPY pair ke short-term outlook ko mutasir karega. Technical Tajziya:

Technical lehaz se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair mein waazeh bearish signals dekhnay ko mil rahe hain. Is waqt, yeh pair apne roz ke opening level 143.20 se neeche trade kar raha hai aur daily Pivot level 142.95 ke qareeb hai. Qeemat moving average trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ek ahem level hota hai jahan volume distribution aam tor par hoti hai, aur yeh strong selling pressure ko zahir karta hai. Agar qeemat 143.20 level ke upar chali jati hai, to mazeed izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo resistance levels 143.69 aur 143.75 tak jasakta hai. Agar qeemat 142.95 level ke neeche girti hai, to umeed hai ke yeh aur neeche jaegi aur support levels 142.74 aur shayad 142.20 tak gir sakti hai. Yeh pair apne monthly Pivot level 146.24 aur weekly Pivot level 143.75 ke neeche bhi trade kar raha hai, jo ek corrective mood ko zahir karta hai. Hourly chart mein, yeh pair apni pehle ki range 143.69 se 142.14 ke neeche chala gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers filhal bazar mein haawi hain. Lekin traders ko ek mumkin false breakout se ehtiyaat karni chahiye. Kul mila kar, technical indicators ek bearish outlook ko support karte hain, aur agar pair key support levels ke neeche trade karta raha, to mazeed girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain. D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.