Aaj ka GBP/USD Technical Snapshot British Pound (GBP) ka US Dollar (USD) ke against outlook southern direction mein developments par focus hai, yani pound ki kamzori. Yeh long-term trend central bank policies ke anticipated difference ki wajah se hai jo UK aur US mein hai. Bank of England (BOE) apna refinancing rate kam karne ka plan bana raha hai, jo asal mein borrowing cost ko businesses aur individuals ke liye kam karta hai. Yeh move UK economy ko stimulate karne ke liye hai. Magar, Federal Reserve System (Fed) US mein apna rate barqarar rakh raha hai, taake inflation se lar sake Kal ki Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, ki speech kaafi significant thi. Unho ne premature rate cuts ke khilaf apni stance dohrayi, aur zarurat par zor diya ke inflation ke slow hone ke clear evidence se pehle aisa na kiya jaye. Yeh hawkish stance USD ko GBP ke muqablay mazboot banata hai, jo apni rate policy ke sath accommodative hai. Jab crucial US inflation data Thursday ko release hoga, do potential scenarios GBP/USD currency pair ke liye saamne aate hain. Is scenario mein, GBP/USD price apne current support level 1.2761 ke neeche gir sakti hai. Yeh tab hoga agar US inflation data expectations se lower aaye, magar Fed ke target se upar rahe.
Aisa result Fed ko rate hike consider karne ka sign samjha ja sakta hai, jo interest rate gap ko US aur UK ke darmiyan aur barhata hai. Agar yeh breakout smoothly hota hai, toh price phir 1.2700 ke agle support level ki taraf apni southward journey continue kar sakti hai. Yeh scenario four-hour chart ke technical indicators aur upar mentioned fundamental factors se align karta hai. Dusra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke GBP/USD price 1.2761 support level ke upar rahe. Yeh tab hoga agar US inflation data significant slowdown dikhaye, jo market ko yeh samajhne par majboor kare ke Fed rate cut jald aasakta hai.
Is case mein, hum price mein ek aur upward wave dekh sakte hain, jo current local high 1.2858 ko break karne ka target bana sakti hai. Magar, yeh bullish momentum zaroori nahi ke barqarar rahe. Aakhir mein, agar Fed apni stance par firm rahe aur inflation utni cool down na ho jitni anticipate ki gayi hai, toh "bears" (jo price decline expect karte hain) control le sakte hain aur price ko wapas 1.2700 support level ki taraf push kar sakte hain, jo current trading range ka lower boundary four-hour chart par hai. Overall, GBP/USD currency pair ek crossroads par hai, US inflation data ke release aur Fed ke subsequent reaction ka intezaar hai. Pound ki direction in key factors par depend karti hai, jisme ya toh continued weakening ya ek reprieve pehle ke downward trend resume se pehle aasakti hai
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Aisa result Fed ko rate hike consider karne ka sign samjha ja sakta hai, jo interest rate gap ko US aur UK ke darmiyan aur barhata hai. Agar yeh breakout smoothly hota hai, toh price phir 1.2700 ke agle support level ki taraf apni southward journey continue kar sakti hai. Yeh scenario four-hour chart ke technical indicators aur upar mentioned fundamental factors se align karta hai. Dusra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke GBP/USD price 1.2761 support level ke upar rahe. Yeh tab hoga agar US inflation data significant slowdown dikhaye, jo market ko yeh samajhne par majboor kare ke Fed rate cut jald aasakta hai.
Is case mein, hum price mein ek aur upward wave dekh sakte hain, jo current local high 1.2858 ko break karne ka target bana sakti hai. Magar, yeh bullish momentum zaroori nahi ke barqarar rahe. Aakhir mein, agar Fed apni stance par firm rahe aur inflation utni cool down na ho jitni anticipate ki gayi hai, toh "bears" (jo price decline expect karte hain) control le sakte hain aur price ko wapas 1.2700 support level ki taraf push kar sakte hain, jo current trading range ka lower boundary four-hour chart par hai. Overall, GBP/USD currency pair ek crossroads par hai, US inflation data ke release aur Fed ke subsequent reaction ka intezaar hai. Pound ki direction in key factors par depend karti hai, jisme ya toh continued weakening ya ek reprieve pehle ke downward trend resume se pehle aasakti hai
Click image for larger version
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