جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

GBP/USD currency pair ab tak side way chal raha hai. Is liye, aaj be-waja floating se bachne ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke European market ke khulne ka sabr se intezar kiya jaye. Ek trader ke liye behtareen faisla yeh hai ke sabr se sahi waqt ka intezar karein. Agar hum technical point of view se dekhein, tou GBP/USD currency pair H1 time frame mein ab tak downward trajectory par hai. Kal ke sharp rise ke baad aaj ek significant fall dekhne ko mili hai. Is situation mein, agle move ko anticipate karna aur disciplined stop loss ko maintain karna zaroori hai. Fundamental point of view se dekha jaye tou USD index ke recent movements mein kuch din ki girawat ke baad ab ek potential increase ka imkaan hai, jo GBP/USD ke opponents ko upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin, yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke USD opponent dobara girawat ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aapko fundamental news par nazar rakhni chahiye jo agle kuch din mein release hongi, taake forex calendar ko monitor karte hue aap ek acha forecast bana sakein.
Daily candles H4 time frame par red hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bearish trend chal raha hai. Hum clearly dekh sakte hain ke price pichle mahine ke shuru se gir rahi hai. Current decline ke sath price Original Demand area tak pohonch gaya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke wahan solid support hai. Is liye, price wapis upar move kar sakta hai taake supply area tak, jo TOP BB line ke upar hai, pohonch sake.
GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein positive momentum gain kiya hai, khaaskar jab se yeh Wednesday ko 1.3200 level se upar gaya hai. Yeh movement zyada tar risk-on sentiment ki wajah se hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke investors ab zyada risk lene ke liye tayyar hain aur British pound jese assets mein invest kar rahe hain. Is movement ke peeche ek aham factor US Federal Reserve (Fed) ka interest rates ko kam karne ka imkaan hai. Kai analysts yeh predict kar rahe hain ke Fed rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se reduce karega. Agar aisa hota hai, tou US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo GBP/USD pair ko aur upar le ja sakta hai
GBP/USD 1.3279 RIS support ke neeche wapas gir jaye, jo kal ke low par dobara jaane ki koshish karega, lekin is hone ki sambhavna kaafi had tak geopolitical developments par depend karti hai. Kal price 1.3246 par ruk gayi, jo daily chart par middle Bollinger Band ke qareeb hai. Jab ke abhi kisi bhi definitive conclusion par pahunchna jaldi hai, agar aaj reversal doji pattern banta hai, to price 1.3425 tak wapas aa sakti hai aur shayad is resistance ko bhi tod sakti hai.

USD ka outlook Assalam Alaikum!
Takniki taur par, aisa lagta hai keh 1.30002 par liquid swing fractal tak pahunchne ke liye qimat ko sirf chand mazid points ki zarurat hai, jo keh haftawar range ki nichli satah hai. Waise, agar aap haftawar time frame nazar dalein to, qimat ab bhi 1.2946 aur 1.3110 ke darmiyan qaimat ke farq (adam tawazun ke ilaqe) ke kharid zone me trade kar rahi hai, jo bawastah taur par batata hai keh pound/dollar ke jode ke liye uptrend structure barqarar hai.
Is adam tawazun ke zone ka kafi dafe test kiya gaya hai, jis ne asset ki kasshish ko kamzor kar diya hai. Agar maujudah candle is ilaqe ke andar band ho jati hai to, yah tajwiz kar sakta hai keh girawat jari rah sakti hai. Halankeh, filhal, hamein mumkena taur par yah ummid karni chahiye keh Jonubi scenario 1.3002 ki mazkurah swing satah par pahunch kar khatam ho jayeg, aur misali taur par, ham 1.3135 (maujudah candle ki bulandi) ke ilaqe me liquidity pool me ooper ki taraf ek islah dekh sakte hain.

اکتوبر 11 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

برطانوی پاؤنڈ کل 1.3080 کی سپورٹ لیول سے نیچے آ گیا۔ قیمت الٹ جانے کے لیے مناسب سپورٹ لیول تلاش کرنے کے لیے جدوجہد کر رہی ہے اور اس طرح کی تبدیلی کو متحرک کرنے کے لیے کسی اہم واقعے کا بھی انتظار کر رہی ہے۔ تاہم، غیر متوقع واقعات ہوسکتے ہیں. کل، امریکہ میں بیروزگاری سے فائدہ اٹھانے کے دعویداروں کی تعداد میں ہفتے کے دوران 42,000 کا اضافہ ہوا، جس نے گزشتہ جمعہ کے مضبوط روزگار کے اعداد و شمار پر شکوک و شبہات کا اظہار کیا۔ لیکن ایسا لگتا ہے کہ مارکیٹ زیادہ اہم اتپریرک کا انتظار کر رہی ہے۔



آج، اہم اعداد و شمار، پرامید پیشین گوئیوں کے ساتھ، برطانیہ میں جاری کیے جا رہے ہیں۔ اگر ان کی تصدیق ہو جاتی ہے، جیسے اگست کے لیے 0.2% جی ڈی پی نمو، پاؤنڈ کو اپنی پوزیشن کو نمایاں طور پر بہتر کرنے کا موقع مل سکتا ہے۔ اس سے مارکیٹ میں زیادہ اثر انگیز تبدیلی کا مرحلہ طے ہوگا۔

چار- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت 1.3080 کی سطح کے نیچے بہت زیادہ دبائی جاتی ہے، دونوں اشارے کی لکیروں کے نیچے رہتی ہے۔

تاہم، مارلن آسیلیٹر ان عوامل سے متاثر نہیں ہوتا ہے۔ یہ اوپر کی طرف بریک آؤٹ کی تیاری کر رہا ہے، جس سے قیمت کو اس مشکل پوزیشن سے نکلنے میں مدد مل سکتی ہے۔ قریب ترین مزاحمتی سطح سے اوپر کا استحکام بھی توازن کی لکیر کے اوپر حرکت کی نشاندہی کرے گا۔ یہ نیچے کی طرف ہونے والی اصلاح کے خاتمے کا ایک مضبوط اشارہ ہو گا جو پچھلے دو ہفتوں سے جاری ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis GBP/USD currency pair ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility ko showcase kiya hai, jo ke UK aur US ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain. Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf. Kai dafa higher push ki koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko significant resistance levels par challenges ka samna karna para. Is waqt, price EMA ke aas paas hover kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh iss level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barqarar rehne ki

GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis GBP/USD currency pair ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility ko showcase kiya hai, jo ke UK aur US ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain. Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf. Kai dafa higher push ki koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko significant resistance levels par challenges ka samna karna para. Is waqt, price EMA ke aas paas hover kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh iss level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barqarar rehne ki

Good Morning, umeed hai ke mere tamaam doston jo yahan kaam karte hain apni zindagi mein khush hain. Main GBP/USD ki price movement ko technical aur fundamental nazriye se analyze karna chahta hoon. Likhnay ke waqt GBP/USD 1.3055 par trade kar raha hai. Is waqt, GBP/USD par US dollar ka pressure hai. Agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai, toh GBP/USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur neechay gir sakta hai. Agar US dollar kamzor rehta hai, toh GBP/USD mein aur zyada taqat dekhnay ko mil sakti hai. Abhi jo prices ka girawat hai, wo hamen mustaqbil ka pata de raha hai jo ke bearish direction mein hai, kyunki chand trading dinon se ek sell trend dekhne mein aaya hai. Lagta hai yeh silsila jari rahega. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 47 par hai, jo ke iss waqt ke market cap ke liye mazboot supply aur ongoing selling pressure ko zahir kar raha hai. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is chart mein GBP/USD ke liye mazid sell signal de raha hai. 20 aur 50 EMA indicators ke mutabiq, correction ka signal hai aur price 20 aur 50 EMA line ke neeche hai. Chand dinon ke additional study ke baad, main is natije par pohncha hoon. GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri resistance levels 1.3086 aur 1.3112 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3086 ka level tor leta hai, aur phir 1.3112 ke baad, toh GBP/USD mazid 1.3565 ya 1.3987 tak ja sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th resistance levels hain aur hum aur zyada bullish movement dekh sakte hain. Dusri taraf, GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri support levels 1.3045 aur 1.3022 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3045 ka level tor leta hai aur phir 1.3022 ke baad, toh GBP/USD 1.2676 ya 1.2134 tak gir sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th support levels hain, aur hum aur zyada bearish movement dekh sakte hain. Technical tools ka istamaal karte hue, aaj hum successful trading karenge. Lekin hum trading se pehle ek achi entry ki koshish karenge.

Good Morning, umeed hai ke mere tamaam doston jo yahan kaam karte hain apni zindagi mein khush hain. Main GBP/USD ki price movement ko technical aur fundamental nazriye se analyze karna chahta hoon. Likhnay ke waqt GBP/USD 1.3055 par trade kar raha hai. Is waqt, GBP/USD par US dollar ka pressure hai. Agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai, toh GBP/USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur neechay gir sakta hai. Agar US dollar kamzor rehta hai, toh GBP/USD mein aur zyada taqat dekhnay ko mil sakti hai. Abhi jo prices ka girawat hai, wo hamen mustaqbil ka pata de raha hai jo ke bearish direction mein hai, kyunki chand trading dinon se ek sell trend dekhne mein aaya hai. Lagta hai yeh silsila jari rahega. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 47 par hai, jo ke iss waqt ke market cap ke liye mazboot supply aur ongoing selling pressure ko zahir kar raha hai. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is chart mein GBP/USD ke liye mazid sell signal de raha hai. 20 aur 50 EMA indicators ke mutabiq, correction ka signal hai aur price 20 aur 50 EMA line ke neeche hai. Chand dinon ke additional study ke baad, main is natije par pohncha hoon. GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri resistance levels 1.3086 aur 1.3112 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3086 ka level tor leta hai, aur phir 1.3112 ke baad, toh GBP/USD mazid 1.3565 ya 1.3987 tak ja sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th resistance levels hain aur hum aur zyada bullish movement dekh sakte hain. Dusri taraf, GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri support levels 1.3045 aur 1.3022 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3045 ka level tor leta hai aur phir 1.3022 ke baad, toh GBP/USD 1.2676 ya 1.2134 tak gir sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th support levels hain, aur hum aur zyada bearish movement dekh sakte hain. Technical tools ka istamaal karte hue, aaj hum successful trading karenge. Lekin hum trading se pehle ek achi entry ki koshish karenge.

GBP/USD currency pair ke price changes ke analysis ke hawalay se hai. Yeh pair, jo British Pound ko US Dollar ke muqablay main dikhata hai, bohot zyada US job market data aur mukhtalif geopolitical developments se mutasir hota hai. Haal hi main, US ka monthly job data acha aya hai, jis ki wajah se US Dollar ki qeemat barh gayi hai aur GBP/USD pair girawat ka shikar hai. Mazboot employment figures se yeh pata chalta hai ke US ki economy acha perform kar rahi hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ko interest rates barhane ke liye support deti hai. Doosri taraf, UK ki economy ko kuch challenges ka samna hai, jisme inflationary pressures aur growth ka uncertain future shamil hai. Bank of England ki monetary policy decisions, Pound ki taqat ke hawalay se aham kirdar ada karengi. Is ke ilawa, post-Brexit trade negotiations aur wahan ki siyasi stability GBP/USD ki dynamics ko aur mushkil banati hain. Jab traders in tamam factors ko mad e nazar rakhte hain, toh GBP ko le kar market ka rawaiya abhi bhi ehtiyat se bharpoor hai, khaaskar Bank of England ke aanay walay steps ke hawalay se.Is haftay UK economy se koi bara data release nahi hua, jis ki wajah se Pound Sterling zyada ter global market sentiment se mutasir ho raha hai. Traders ab external factors par nazar rakhe hue hain, aur agla bara event US ka GDP data ka release hai. Lekin, kisi bara price movement ki umeed nahi hai, kyun ke markets ne zyada ter Q2 ka annualized GDP growth ko 2.8% par stable rehne ka andaza laga liya hai. Is liye, UK currency zyada ter global developments, khaaskar US se mutasir ho sakti hai.Aham Focus US PCE Inflation Data par hai:Is haftay ka sab se anticipated data release US ka Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index hai. Investors is data ka intezar kar rahe hain taake US main aanay walay inflation ke trends ko samajh saken. Agar inflation barh raha hai ya kam az kam stable hai, toh yeh Fed ke September main rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barhawa dega. Pound ki movements bhi is outcome se mutasir hongi, kyun ke US monetary policy main koi bhi bara tabadla global financial markets ko adjust karne par majboor kar sakta hai.Moving averages filhal Pound Sterling ke liye koi immediate support nahi de rahi hain. Traders trend channel ke lower band par bounce ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke pichlay 6 mahinon se mazbooti se 1.3120 ke aas paas bana hua hai. Agar yeh level toot gaya, toh agla support zone 1.3047 ke aas paas hai, jo August main pehle resistance point tha. Agar aur girawat dekhi gayi, toh 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) jo ke 1.3186 par hai aur critical level jo 1.3100 hai, mazid support de sakte hain

GBP/USD joray ki qeemat 1.3370 ke qareeb Tuesday subah ko stable hai aur koi khaas ground nahin bana rahi. Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish remarks ne dollar ko kuch support diya, jis se GBP/USD ne neeche ki taraf movement dikhayi. Yeh pair September 12 se ek rising regression channel mein hai aur 4-hour chart ka Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60 ke qareeb hai, jo bullish bias ko reflect karta hai. Agar qeemat oopar ki taraf jati hai, toh 1.3440 (ascending channel ka beech wala point) pehli resistance hogi, phir 1.3500 (round level) aur 1.3520 (ascending channel ki upper limit). Neeche ki taraf support 1.3375 (ascending channel ki lower limit), 1.3330 (50-period simple moving average), aur 1.3300 (round level) pe mil sakta hai. GBP/USD ne Friday ko thoda loss post kiya, lekin do haftay se positive region mein close karne mein kaamiyab rahi. Monday ko yeh pair apni position qaim rakhta hai aur 1.3400 ke oopar trade kar raha hai. Is hafta ke aghaz mein US Dollar par selling pressure ne GBP/USD ko oopar dhakel diya. Friday ko release hone wale data ke mutabiq, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ne report diya ke core personal consumption expenditures price index August mein 0.1% month-over-month barha, jo ke market ke expectations se zyada tha. Britain ki Office for National Statistics ne bhi pehle se revise karke annual GDP growth ko second quarter ke liye 0.7% declare kiya, jo pehle 0.9% report hui thi. Lekin in figures ne market mein koi khaas reaction nahi diya. Baad mein, Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne economic outlook par apne khayalat ka izhar karna tha, jo ke 17:00 GMT par annual National Association for Business Economics meeting mein schedule tha. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, markets ko lagta hai ke November ke agle policy meeting mein Fed ke policy rate ko 25 basis points cut karne ka 50% chance hai. Agar Powell rate cut ka rasta khula chor dete hain, toh dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai apne mukable ke currencies ke against. Warna, agar Powell gradual policy easing ka signal dete hain, toh GBP/USD ki speed kam ho sakti hai.

Good Morning, umeed hai ke mere tamaam doston jo yahan kaam karte hain apni zindagi mein khush hain. Main GBP/USD ki price movement ko technical aur fundamental nazriye se analyze karna chahta hoon. Likhnay ke waqt GBP/USD 1.3055 par trade kar raha hai. Is waqt, GBP/USD par US dollar ka pressure hai. Agar US dollar mazid mazboot hota hai, toh GBP/USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur neechay gir sakta hai. Agar US dollar kamzor rehta hai, toh GBP/USD mein aur zyada taqat dekhnay ko mil sakti hai. Abhi jo prices ka girawat hai, wo hamen mustaqbil ka pata de raha hai jo ke bearish direction mein hai, kyunki chand trading dinon se ek sell trend dekhne mein aaya hai. Lagta hai yeh silsila jari rahega. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 47 par hai, jo ke iss waqt ke market cap ke liye mazboot supply aur ongoing selling pressure ko zahir kar raha hai. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is chart mein GBP/USD ke liye mazid sell signal de raha hai. 20 aur 50 EMA indicators ke mutabiq, correction ka signal hai aur price 20 aur 50 EMA line ke neeche hai. Chand dinon ke additional study ke baad, main is natije par pohncha hoon. GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri resistance levels 1.3086 aur 1.3112 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3086 ka level tor leta hai, aur phir 1.3112 ke baad, toh GBP/USD mazid 1.3565 ya 1.3987 tak ja sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th resistance levels hain aur hum aur zyada bullish movement dekh sakte hain. Dusri taraf, GBP/USD ke liye pehli aur doosri support levels 1.3045 aur 1.3022 hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3045 ka level tor leta hai aur phir 1.3022 ke baad, toh GBP/USD 1.2676 ya 1.2134 tak gir sakta hai jo ke 3rd aur 4th support levels hain, aur hum aur zyada bearish movement dekh sakte hain. Technical tools ka istamaal karte hue, aaj hum successful trading karenge. Lekin hum trading se pehle ek achi entry ki koshish karenge.

GBP/USD Pair Review

Pound sterling ka price Thursday ko $1.27 par qaim raha, jo ke teen hafton ke sabse oonchay level ke qareeb tha, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein parliamentary elections ke liye votes daalay gaye. Centre-left Labor Party opinion polls mein aage thi, aur mumkin hai ke yeh British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ki Conservative Party ko gira de. Kuch andazay yeh bhi hain ke Labor Party ko aksariyat milne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 2005 ke baad general elections mein unka pehla fatah hoga. US jobs numbers ka elan honay se pehle GBP/USD ka price resistance level 1.2780 ke qareeb stable tha.

Kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh siyasi tabdeeli pound sterling, stock market, aur Britain mein investments par acha asar daal sakti hai, aur Britain ki "safe haven" ke tor par shohrat ko bahal kar sakti hai, jab ke doosray ilaqay siyasi uncertainty ka shikar hain. Monetary policy ke hawalay se, investors yeh tawaqqa kar rahe hain ke August mein Bank of England ke faida ke rates mein cut hoga, jab ke inflation central bank ke 2% target tak gir chuki hai.

Trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year bond yield apni recent highs se neeche hai, aur sab ki nazarain elections par hain. British government bonds par 10-year yield Thursday ko takreeban 4.18% thi, jo ke Monday ko chhuti 4.28% se kam thi, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein elections ho rahe thay. Labour Party opinion polls mein aage hai aur Conservative Party ko girane ka imkaan hai, jise Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lead kar rahe hain.

Forex market trading ke mutabiq, British pound ne 2024 ke general election mein achi performance dikhai hai, lekin 10pm par exit poll ke elan ke waqt kuch volatility aasakti hai. Exit poll Thursday raat ko 10pm par ek bara waqt hoga kyun ke yeh ziada tar accurate andaza deta hai ke agla Prime Minister kaun hoga aur uska control kitna mazboot hoga. Base case ke tor par, agar Keir Starmer ki Labour Party ko bari jeet milti hai, to hum expect karte hain ke pound mein izafa hoga jab yeh natija confirm ho jata hai.

Currencies ko certainty pasand hoti hai, aur ek bari Labour jeet sterling exchange rates mein baqi rahne wale risk premium ko khatam kar degi, chahe yeh kitna bhi chhota ho. Barclays Bank ke mutabiq, “British general elections is haftay ka main focus hain, aur ziada tar plausible scenarios, jo ke available opinion polls ke mutabiq hain, pound ki mazeed taqat ko stimulate karte hain.” Is leehaz se, Barclays pound ko euro ke against buy kar raha hai, jo ke French election ke natije ke baad limited recovery dikhayega.

Latest large-scale YouGov poll ke mutabiq, Conservatives sirf 102 MPs tak ghatte nazar aate hain, jo ke party ne pichlay 5 saal mein jeeti hui seats ka 70% kho dene ka matlab hai, aur Labour ko 1832 ke baad se apni sabse bari aksariyat milegi. Deutsche Bank ke Gopal ka andaza hai ke agar Labour achi performance dikhati hai, to pound ki rate ziada tabdeel nahi hogi, aur “EUR/GBP ka risk premium zyada rates par mabni rahega.”

Lekin agar Conservatives opinion polls se behtar karti hain, to yeh sterling ke liye tail risk ho sakta hai, jo ke mumkin hai kyun ke kai voters ab tak faisla nahi kar paye. Agar hung parliament hota hai – jisme koi party aksariyat nahi jeetti – to yeh uncertainty peda karega, jis se sterling kamzor hosakta hai. Yeh sochte hue, pound-euro exchange rate 1.18 se neeche gir sakta hai. Agar French election bhi hung legislature ka natija deta hai, to phir 1.1750 aur 1.17 ke midpoints tak ka rasta saaf hoga. Issi waqt, GBP/USD exchange rate wapas 1.27 tak gir sakti hai, lekin hum samajhte hain ke US ka jobs report Friday ko final asar dalega.

Sterling Dollar ka aaj ka forecast:

Aaj ke US jobs numbers ka reaction GBP/USD ke liye is haftay ke trading ka closing price tay karega, jo ke ek bullish weekly close ke qareeb hai. Jaise pehle zikar kiya, resistance 1.2775 bulls ke control mein wapas anay ke liye sabse important station hai, aur daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, price resistance levels 1.2830 aur 1.2900 tak pohonch sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar price wapas 1.2660 ke support area tak jati hai, to yeh upward rebound ke liye khatra hai.




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GBP/USD currency pair ab tak side way chal raha hai. Is liye, aaj be-waja floating se bachne ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke European market ke khulne ka sabr se intezar kiya jaye. Ek trader ke liye behtareen faisla yeh hai ke sabr se sahi waqt ka intezar karein. Agar hum technical point of view se dekhein, tou GBP/USD currency pair H1 time frame mein ab tak downward trajectory par hai. Kal ke sharp rise ke baad aaj ek significant fall dekhne ko mili hai. Is situation mein, agle move ko anticipate karna aur disciplined stop loss ko maintain karna zaroori hai. Fundamental point of view se dekha jaye tou USD index ke recent movements mein kuch din ki girawat ke baad ab ek potential increase ka imkaan hai, jo GBP/USD ke opponents ko upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin, yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke USD opponent dobara girawat ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aapko fundamental news par nazar rakhni chahiye jo agle kuch din mein release hongi, taake forex calendar ko monitor karte hue aap ek acha forecast bana sakein. Daily candles H4 time frame par red hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bearish trend chal raha hai. Hum clearly dekh sakte hain ke price pichle mahine ke shuru se gir rahi hai. Current decline ke sath price Original Demand area tak pohonch gaya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke wahan solid support hai. Is liye, price wapis upar move kar sakta hai taake supply area tak, jo TOP BB line ke upar hai, pohonch sake.
GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein positive momentum gain kiya hai, khaaskar jab se yeh Wednesday ko 1.3200 level se upar gaya hai. Yeh movement zyada tar risk-on sentiment ki wajah se hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke investors ab zyada risk lene ke liye tayyar hain aur British pound jese assets mein invest kar rahe hain. Is movement ke peeche ek aham factor US Federal Reserve (Fed) ka interest rates ko kam karne ka imkaan hai. Kai analysts yeh predict kar rahe hain ke Fed rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se reduce karega. Agar aisa hota hai, tou US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo GBP/USD pair ko aur upar le ja sakta hai
GBP/USD 1.3279 RIS support ke neeche wapas gir jaye, jo kal ke low par dobara jaane ki koshish karega, lekin is hone ki sambhavna kaafi had tak geopolitical developments par depend karti hai. Kal price 1.3246 par ruk gayi, jo daily chart par middle Bollinger Band ke qareeb hai. Jab ke abhi kisi bhi definitive conclusion par pahunchna jaldi hai, agar aaj reversal doji pattern banta hai, to price 1.3425 tak wapas aa sakti hai aur shayad is resistance ko bhi tod sakti hai.

GBP/USD ne thoda girawat dekhi aur 1.3097 ke aas-paas aa gaya. Yeh decline US Dollar ki relative weakness ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jo Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ke expectations ke wajah se downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Conversely, agar sellers GBP/USD pair ko 1.3100 level ke neeche le aaye, to pair 1.3050 mark ke aas-paas range-bound reh sakti hai. Agar yeh support level breach hota hai, to 100-day moving average (DMA) 1.3135 ko expose kiya ja Kal ki upward movement ke baad, GBP/USD pair ne 4-hour chart par aik naya local high hasil kiya, jo ke 1.3050 par peak kiya. Yeh abhi bhi 1.30 ke significant round number ke upar trade kar raha hai, jis ne bullish sentiment ko mazboot kiya hai. Is key level ke breach hone par bohot se traders apni positions aur priorities ko dobara se evaluate karte hain.

Lekin recent wave ke peak par, 4-hour chart par kuch indecisive candles nazar aa rahi hain, aur indicators ek possible reversal ka ishara de rahe hain. Abhi ke liye sab se zyada mumkin scenario yeh lagta hai ke price 1.2947 ke support level ki taraf pullback kare. Humein dekhna hoga ke yeh level ke aas paas price kaise behave karti hai. Agar bears price ko 1.2947 ke neeche dhakel dete hain, jo ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke saath align karta hai, toh hum ek lambi downward movement dekh sakte hain jo ke trading range ke lower boundary ya 1.2831 ke support level ko target karegi. Yeh ek significant bearish trend ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Dosri taraf, agar GBP/USD 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar apni position ko barqarar rakhta hai, toh hum mazeed upward movement dekh sakte hain aur recent local high ka dobara test ho sakta hai. Mojooda surat-e-haal yeh suggest karti hai ke traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye aur in key levels ke aas paas ki price action ke mutabiq apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.

Upar ka chart dikhata hai ke market pehle kaafi dheere chalti hai, lekin phir price phir se apne sab se unche level tak barh jaati hai, toh kayi buyers shayad isay aage badhane ki koshish karenge. Market ke volatility level mein baad mein European session ke doran izafa ho sakta hai, jo aksar is session ke doran hota hai. Price ki umeed hai ke wo kai baar overbought zone mein jayegi. Lekin, thodi correction ke baad, yeh phir se barh sakti hai aur apne asal value ko bhi paar kar sakti hai, toh yeh ek behtareen mauqa hai trading ka jab price gir rahi ho, bohot saari long positions kholne ka. Yeh zaroori hai ke reversal moment ka faida uthaya jaye, jo beech hafte mein ho sakta hai.

ne bepanah taqat dikhayi, jahan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) doosre quarter mein 3.0% ki growth dekha gaya, jo ke 2.8% ki mehsoos ki gayi growth rate se zyada hai. Ye mazboot economic performance US Dollar ko aur barhawa deti hai. Is ke ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims report ne dikhaya ke bekar hona ki darkhwast 23 August ko khatam hone wale haftay mein 231,000 tak giri, jo ke pichle 233,000 se kam hai aur expectations se thodi kam hai jo 232,000 thi. Ye positive employment data Greenback ke momentum ko Pound Sterling ke khilaf barhata hai.
Halaanki haal ki girawat ke bawajood, British Pound ke liye downside shayad mehdoood ho kyunke expectations hain ke Bank of England (BoE) US Federal Reserve ke muqablay mein zyada mudraat ke liye lambay arse tak uncha interest rates rakhega. BoE ne haal hi mein interest rates ko 25 basis points kam karke 5% kar diya, aur market participants is saal ke aakhir tak aur 40 basis points ki cuts ki umeed kar rahe hain. BoE ka ye hawkish stance beech ke doran GBP ko support faraham kar sakta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price ne 1.3430 ke upar se multi-year highs se peeche hatt kar 1.3050 level se neeche aa gaya hai jabke US Dollar par bechne ka pressure thoda kam hota hai. Magar, yeh abhi tak haal ke highs ke kareeb hai jabke August mein 29-month peak tak pahuncha tha. Price action abhi tak bullish side ko pasand karta hai, 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.3109 ke upar rahte hue. Neeche ki taraf, GBP/USD traders ke liye short-term targets mein 20-day EMA shamil hai

GBP/USD ke case mein, upward engulfing pattern yeh reflect karta hai ke traders mein optimism barh raha hai ke pound dollar ke muqable mein qareebi waqt mein mazid taqat hasil kar sakta hai. 1.3395 ka level bohot zyada ahem hai kyun ke yeh woh point hai jahan buying interest barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. GBP/USD mein long positions lene wale traders ke liye yeh level attractive ho sakta hai ke apni positions open ya aur zyada badhayein, kyun ke engulfing pattern yeh zahir karta hai ke price yahan se barh sakti hai. Lekin broader market conditions aur kisi bhi resistance levels ko madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai jo upward momentum ko rok sakte hain. Pullback ka Imkaan Is bullish signal ke bawajood, kuch indications hain ke price mein ek pullback ho sakta hai jab tak ke upward move mazeed barh na jaye. Short positions ya "shorts" kaafi imkaan hai ke 1.3310 ke aas paas profit lena shuru kar dein, jo un traders ka level hai jo pair mein temporary decline ka soch rahe hain. Yeh pullback market ko consolidation ka waqt de sakta hai, jisse price ko mazeed strength mil sakti hai taake phir se higher levels ki taraf move karein.
Rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak bhi ho sakta hai, jahan short sellers is opportunity ka faida utha sakte hain ke price apne upward momentum ko sustain nahi kar paa rahi. Yeh levels support aur resistance areas ke tor par kaam karte hain jahan price action zyada volatile ho sakta hai jab mukhtalif traders apni positions adjust karte hain.
Nazar Rakhne Wale Ahem Factors
Bohot se fundamental factors GBP/USD pair ki direction ko asar andaz kar sakte hain. UK aur US se anay wali economic data bohot ahem role ada karegi ke pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed taqat hasil karta hai ya nahi. Maslan, agar UK ki GDP growth ya inflation data mazid strong aati hai, toh pound ko aur support milne ka imkaan hai. Dusri taraf, agar UK economy mein koi weakness hoti hai, toh traders long positions lene mein ehtiyaat karenge.
Isi tarah, US dollar ke developments bhi pair par asar dal sakte hain. Dollar ko rising interest rate expectations ka faida ho raha hai, aur agar Federal Reserve mazeed aggressive monetary tightening ka signal deta hai, toh dollar mazeed taqat hasil kar sakta hai, jisse GBP/USD ko upward move sustain karna mushkil ho sakta hai.