gbp/usd

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza liya gaya hai, jismein kal ka breakout bullish buy level se upar nikalna ghalat sabit hua. Is breakout ke baad koi khaas upar ki harkat nahi dekhi gayi, aur bearish sell level 1.31285 ko breach kar diya gaya. Ye bearish breakdown asal mein bullish bias ko khatam kar deta hai, jis wajah se main selling ki taraf shift ho gaya hoon. Ab main ummeed karta hoon ke price kam se kam 1.30859 tak gir sakti hai, lekin ye aur bhi niche ja sakti hai, chahe woh bearish channel ke lower boundary ki taraf ho ya support level 1.29384 tak. Main sirf tab dobara buying ka sochunga jab bullish buy level se upar koi breakout ho. Filhal, meri alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko todne mein kamiyab ho gaye, to main foran buying karunga aur 1.31849-1.32089 resistance levels ki taraf badhne ki ummeed rakhunga. Pehle ki high tak bhi growth ka potential hai.
Main ab bhi upar ki taraf harkat ko mumkin samajhta hoon, isi liye main apni buy position band karne mein hichkichahat kar raha hoon. 1.3049 ke aas-paas ek puri tarah se upward movement price ko mere profit target 1.3407 tak le ja sakti hai, lekin main is natije ki tasdiq nahi kar sakta. Agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jate hain, to main apni buy position manual tor par band kar sakta hoon, kyunki bullish move ke chances kafi kam ho jayenge. Pehle, maine 1.3099-1.3049 range tak girne ki umeed ki thi, aur main ab bhi is ka intezar kar raha hoon kyunki pair filhal overbought lag raha hai. Jab ke euro ne apne gains ko lagbhag mita diya hai, pound sirf 29% tak wapas gaya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% tak girta hai, to European Central Bank (ECB) ke interest rates ghatane ki sambhavna hai, jab ke UK ke inflation data ka intezar hai. Jab yeh data release hoga, to market ko samajh aayega ke Bank of England bhi rates ghatata rahega. Overall, is hafte meri GBP/USD ke liye bearish soch hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke pair 1.3141 se upar ja sakta hai.

Yeh nafrat hai ke GBP/USD turant 1.3199 ya isse upar chadhne ki sambhavna hai, kyunki dollar ki taqat behtar fundamentals ki wajah se barh gayi hai. H1 chart par downward pressure barh raha hai, aur momentum kaafi strong lag raha hai. Is waqt, selling kharidne se zyada faida mand lagta hai, kyunki behtar prices for long positions jald mil sakti hain. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 range mein selling ke mauqe 1.3074 support level ke neeche break karne ko target kar sakte hain. Bahut se buyers ne apne stop-losses is level ke paas rakhe hain, aur market is point tak pahunch sakta hai, jo buying ke liye abhi jaldi ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar stops 1.3074 support level ke neeche tootte hain, to buying transactions zyada faida mand ho sakti hain. Agar koi corrective move price ko 1.3182 tak le jata hai, to ye 50-point ka faida ho sakta hai, jo proportionally zyada faida mand hai. Local low lagbhag 101 points door hai; agar ye tootta hai aur hold karta hai, to agla target 161.8 level tak 1.2992 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo 134 points ki doori tay karega, aur agar bounce hota hai to aage aur faide ki sambhavna hai.

USD ka analysis aaj kal kafi pechida aur ghambir hota ja raha hai. Pichle kuch waqt se, wave pattern kafi wazeh lag raha tha aur bearish wave set ki formation ko suggest kar raha tha, jiska target 1.2300 se neeche tha. Lekin, aam taur par U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi hai ke ye scenario ab utna feasible nahi lagta. Demand ab bhi barh rahi hai. Abhi jo wave pattern hai, wo kafi mushkil aur complex ho gaya hai. Main aksar simple structures ka istemal karta hoon analysis ke liye, kyunke complex structures mein zyada nuances aur ambiguity hoti hai. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke ek upward wave ne ek downward wave ko overlap kar diya hai, jo pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai, jo pehle ke downward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai (ye saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Hum sirf itna keh sakte hain ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai aur balancing line 1.2600 ke aas-paas. Lekin ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern se fit nahi ho rahi, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neeche wale chart mein alternative wave count dikhaya gaya hai. Market ne ek nayi wajah se kharidari shuru ki hai. GBP/USD exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points se gir gaya, jo ke itna zyada nahi hai given aaj ke news background ko. Kam se kam do FOMC members ne September meeting mein rate cut ki appropriateness par doubts express kiye. Kuch ghante pehle, U.S. GDP report for Q2 release hui, jisme US economy 3.0% grow hui, jabke pehle estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh bhi ke U.S. economy Q1 se do guna tez hui hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke U.S. dollar ka 35 basis point ka faida chhota hai; isse din ke end tak kafi zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton se bearish wave ke bawajood, mujhe pair ke girne ke siwa kuch nahi lagta. Main kisi aur movement ko trade karne ka sochta nahi, given the current news background. Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims par tha. Lekin is report ki value market expectations ke kareeb thi, isliye koi khaas reaction nahi hua. Overall, kuch doosre analysts ki tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke dollar bohot oversold hai, aur market agle paanch rounds ke Fed policy easing ko price kar rahi hai

**GBP/USD Technical Analysis**

Raat bhar, GBP/USD apne October ke low 1.3110 se upar chala gaya. November mein, ye level ek aham resistance level tha. Ab tak, agla resistance level November ka high 1.3220 hai. Agar ye level break hota hai, to upper target 50-day SMA par pahunchega. Mangalwar ka bullish engulfing candle chart exchange rate ki momentum ko barhata hai. MACD aur RSI bhi upar ki taraf jhukh rahe hain. Likha gaya hai ke agle kuch dinon mein, British dollar ke liye umeed hai ke wo November ke high 1.3130 ki taraf barhega. GBP/USD ne pehle November ke high ko briefly break kiya aur 2023 ke liye naya high 1.3290 set kiya. Ascending triangle ki resistance, jo ke August aur December ke highs se supported hai, shayad ban rahi hai.

Jis tarah is mahine ke shuru mein rebound dekha gaya, British dollar/yen apne 6-, 9- aur 13-day moving averages se upar trade kar raha hai. Halankeh ye indicators upar ki taraf ghoom rahe hain, MACD aur slow stochastic abhi apne respective signal lines aur midlines ke neeche hain. Price movement ko yahan se aur aage barhne ki zaroorat hai. British dollar/yen ko low declare karne ke liye, 21-day moving average ke upar band hona pehla qadam hoga, kyunki ye abhi is low ko declare karne ke liye bohot jaldi hai kyunki October ke high se downward trend dekha gaya hai.

D1 chart par dekhein to humein lagbhag wahi slippage ka imkaan nazar aata hai, jo $1.3240 ki taraf mazboot comeback kar sakta hai. 1.3285 par bohot accha buying opportunity hai, aur aaj ke trading session ke doran 1.3275 tak upar jane ki umeed hai. Is bullish trend ka fayda uthate hue, buyers ke paas is waqt 50-60 pips ka mauqa hai, jab price ne 1.3265 ka high dekha aur phir 1.3040 par wapas swing kiya.

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Guzishtah Jumah ko, Bartanwi pound me girawat aayi kiyunkeh yah mazbut dollar ke dawab me aa gaya. Natije ke taur par, pound/dollar ki jodi nayi nichli satah par pahunch gayi. Iske bawajud, sterling 1.3100 ki satah se ooper band hone me kamyab raha. Filhal, suratehal ghair yaqini hai, pound/dollar ki jodi na to badh rahi hai aur na hi gir rahi hai, jo mujhe market se dur rakhti hai. Sath hi, girawat ka rujhan barqarar hai. Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh Bartanwi currency 1.3050 ke nishan se niche gir jayegi, jahan tezi ki islah par aitemad karte hue stop-loss order ke sath long positions kholna danishmandi hogi.

**British Pound (GBP) aur US Dollar (USD) ka Tajziya:**

British pound (GBP) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein ek modest recovery ki hai, teen din ki girawat ke baad $1.3130 ke aas-paas pahuncha hai. Lekin, major currency pairs ke liye upside potential shayad mehdoood hai, kyunki Federal Reserve ke rate cut par lagay gaye bets kam hue hain, iske peeche strong US non-farm payrolls data hai. Federal Reserve ka September mein 50 basis points ka interest rate cut karna pehle se zyada aggressive tha, jo future mein aur frequent rate cuts ki sambhavana ko kam karta hai. Financial markets ab November mein ek aur 50 basis point rate cut ki high probability dekh rahe hain, jo ke mazboot jobs data ke positive asar ko darshata hai. Non-farm payrolls report ne job growth mein aham izafa aur average hourly earnings mein bhi izafa dikhaya, jo US labor market ki mazbooti ko darshata hai. Bejobi ki shiddat bhi ek naye low par aa gayi, jo economic outlook ko mazeed support karta hai.

Pound ne Bank of England (BoE) se zyada aggressive interest rate cuts ki umeed mein rally ki hai. Halankeh BoE ke chief economist ne hoshiyari barhti hai ke interest rate cuts gradual honi chahiye, jo suggest karta hai ke central bank consecutive meetings mein rates nahi cut karega. Technically, GBP/USD pair ek strong support level 1.3265 ke upar trade kar raha hai, lekin technical indicators ek haali downward trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Stochastic overbought zone se neeche ki taraf ja raha hai, aur RSI neutral level ke paas sidewise move kar raha hai.

Nateejah yeh hai ke GBP/USD pair ne rebound kiya hai, lekin upside potential shayad mehdoood hai kyunki US interest rate cuts ki umeed kam ho gayi hai. BoE ki monetary policy aur technical indicators pound ke liye nazar aane wale waqt ke liye cautious outlook dikhate hain. Aaj ka GBP/USD chart review yeh dikhata hai ke trading pichle session mein tay kiye gaye range ke andar hai. Is liye, critical levels ki breakdown ke baad market entry ka dekhna zaroori hoga, jab sideways channel widen ho raha hai. Agar price 1.301 ke support level ke neeche stabilize hoti hai to main short positions ke liye market mein entry karne par ghoor karunga. Profit lene ka target phir agle price zone 1.316 hoga, aur stop order sabse kareeb high ke upar set kiya jayega.

Iske muqablay mein, agar buyers 0.885 par resistance ko todte hain, to main long positions ki talash karunga, jo 1.321 ke agle supply zone tak access dila sakti hai. Buyers bullish breakout ki taraf market mein ghusne ke liye aayenge, jo broken range ke upar consolidate karne ka aim rakhenge. Hamein aane wale dino mein GBP/USD ke liye ek downward technical correction ki umeed rakhni chahiye. Kul mila kar, October ke end tak 400 points tak neeche ki taraf move hona, choti-choti upward pullbacks ke bawajood, kafi realistic hai.

GBP/USD ki kamzori ko dekhte hue, EUR/GBP pair din bhar mein 1% se zyada barh gaya. Din ke aakhir mein, US economic calendar weekly initial jobless claims aur September ISM services PMI data release karega. Market umeed kar raha hai ke jobless benefits ke liye first-time claims 220,000 tak pahunch sakte hain, jo pehle hafte ke 218,000 se thoda zyada hai. Agar yeh number 200,000 ya usse kam hota hai, to yeh USD ko barhawa de sakta hai aur pair par aur bhi pressure daal sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar ISM headline 50 se niche girta hai to yeh bhi market ko hila sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ke analysis mein, aik downward trend ka imkaan hai jisme target 1.2950 ho sakta hai. Halankeh main abhi deeper levels ka zikar nahi kar raha, lekin agar koi correction hoti hai, to naya target 1.3250 ho sakta hai, jo further declines ko delay kar sakta hai.

GBP/USD turant 1.3199 ya isse upar chadhne ki sambhavna hai, kyunki dollar ki taqat behtar fundamentals ki wajah se barh gayi hai. H1 chart par downward pressure barh raha hai, aur momentum kaafi strong lag raha hai. Is waqt, selling kharidne se zyada faida mand lagta hai, kyunki behtar prices for long positions jald mil sakti hain. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 range mein selling ke mauqe 1.3074 support level ke neeche break karne ko target kar sakte hain. Bahut se buyers ne apne stop-losses is level ke paas rakhe hain, aur market is point tak pahunch sakta hai, jo buying ke liye abhi jaldi ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.3399 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.3537 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon,

### GBP/USD مارکیٹ پیش گوئی

تمام ممبرز اور وزیٹرز کو سلام اور صبح بخیر!

برطانیہ کے انتخابات GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ کے جذبات کا تعین کریں گے۔ لہذا، نئے مارکیٹ کے جذبات خریداروں کو 1.2775 کے زون کو عبور کرنے میں مدد دیں گے۔ کل، GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ تقریباً 1.2747 زون تک پہنچی، جو کہ ایک مزاحمتی علاقہ ہے۔ آج جمعہ ہے، اور امریکی زون کے دوران مارکیٹ میں اتار چڑھاؤ ہو سکتا ہے۔ مزید برآں، امریکی بے روزگاری، اوسط فی گھنٹہ کی آمدنی، اور نان فارم ایمپلائمنٹ کی شرحیں آج GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ میں اتار چڑھاؤ کا باعث بنیں گی۔ اس لیے آپ کو اپنی ٹریڈنگ میں اسٹاپ لاس کا استعمال کرنا چاہیے اور مارکیٹ کے ڈیٹا کو احتیاط سے مانیٹر کرنا چاہیے۔ امید ہے کہ آج GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ خریداروں کے حق میں رہے گی اور وہ بعد میں 1.2782 کے زون کو عبور کر سکتے ہیں۔

برطانوی انتخابات اور اہم امریکی معاشی ڈیٹا کا مجموعہ مارکیٹ میں اہم حرکات کا سبب بن سکتا ہے۔ ان حالات میں، تاجروں کو اسٹاپ لاس کا استعمال اور برطانیہ اور امریکہ کے ڈیٹا کو مسلسل مانیٹر کرنا بہت ضروری ہوگا۔ ان واقعات کی توقع مارکیٹ کے جذبات میں ممکنہ تبدیلیوں کی اہمیت کو اجاگر کرتی ہے۔ اگر امریکی اقتصادی اشاریے مثبت سمت میں ہوتے ہیں، اور برطانوی انتخابات بھی مثبت نتائج فراہم کرتے ہیں، تو GBP/USD جوڑی اہم مزاحمتی سطحوں کو عبور کر سکتی ہے، جس سے خریداروں کے لیے مواقع پیدا ہوں گے۔

ایسی موجودہ مارکیٹ کی تجارتی صورتحال میں، باخبر فیصلے اور رسک مینجمنٹ کا استعمال مارکیٹ کے رجحانات سے فائدہ اٹھانے کے لیے ضروری ہوگا۔ مجموعی طور پر، میں توقع کرتا ہوں کہ GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ جلد ہی خریداروں کو 1.2800 کے زون کو عبور کرنے کے مزید مواقع فراہم کرے گی۔ لہذا، GBP/USD کی مارکیٹ کے جذبات کو مؤثر طریقے سے پہچاننے کی کوشش کریں۔

آپ سب کو کامیاب تجارتی دن کی مبارکباد!

GBP/USD Market Outlook
Salaam aur subah bakhair sab ko!
Aaj GBP/USD ka market momentum dheema hai kyun ke aaj ke daily calendar mein koi khaas news event nahi hai. Magar, UK GDP aur doosray news data iss haftay buyers ki madad kar saktay hain. Aur, price baad mein 1.3175 ke resistance zone ko cross kar sakti hai. Magar koshish karein ke behtareen strategies ka istemal karein aur apni disciplined practices par qaim rahain, taake hum tayar hon jo bhi market aglay dino mein paish kare. Jaise hum iss ane wale haftay mein aagay barhte hain, yeh zaroori hai ke hum yeh samajh lein ke market sentiment pehle teen dinon mein sideway ya dheemi position mein reh sakta hai. Yeh nisbatan sakoon ka daur is wajah se ho sakta hai ke traders ehtiati approach apna rahe hain, kyun ke wo aham ma'ashi data ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo haftay ke aakhir mein release hoga. Aisi surat-e-haal aksar market participants mein ek goomgoi ka ehsaas paida karti hai, jisme prices aik tang range mein fluctuate karti hain.

Yeh stability un traders ke liye challenges aur mauqe donon paish karti hai jo technical analysis par inhasar karte hain. Umeed hai ke GBP/USD ka market sellers ke haq mein rahega, aur woh 1.3078 zone ko test kar saktay hain baad mein. Kul mila kar, hum yeh expect kar saktay hain ke haftay ke aakhri do dinon mein market mein volatility samnay aaye gi. Jab aham news events release hone wale hain, jo ke market movements ko kaafi asar-andaz kar saktay hain. Traders aksar aise volatility ke liye tayari karte hain technical patterns aur trends ka tajziya karke, kyun ke yeh price action ke hawalay se insights faraham karte hain jab news release hoti hai. In reports ka intezaar trading volume mein izafa aur market participants ke jazbaati radd-e-amal ko barhawa de sakta hai, jo ke price fluctuations ko aur ziada barha sakta hai.

Khush raho aur pur-sukoon raho!

**GBP/USD Prices ka Tajziya**
Hamari guftagu ka markaz GBP/USD currency pair ke live pricing movements ko decode karna hai. GBP/USD pair abhi bhi downward trend mein hai, jo mazeed girawat ke imkanaat ko zahir karta hai. Hal hi mein khabar leaked hui ke Bank of England ka irada hai ke woh interest rates mein kami karega, jo ke Thursday ko pound par kaafi asar-andaz hui. Is ke bawajood, pound ne apni stability barkarar rakhi aur 1.31 se neechay nahi gira. Doosri taraf, dollar ko achay economic data ki waja se kaafi taqat mili. Iss halat ko dekhte hue, mein filhaal in price levels par trade karna recommend nahi karta, magar mujhe umeed hai ke agar price 1.3050 se neechay jata hai, toh main buying ka soch sakta hoon, kam az kam short-term pullback ke liye.

Meri pichli technical analysis ke baad se GBP/USD pair mein koi khaas tabdeeli nahi aayi. H4 time frame par ek descending medium-term trend channel established hai, aur pechlay trading din mein bearish candle ke sath close hua, jo ke hafte ka naya low mark karta hai.

**Price Movement aur Technical Indicators**
Price iss waqt Ichimoku cloud ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke bearish momentum ko mazid strong zahir karta hai aur sell positions ka mauqa suggest karta hai. Stochastic indicator support zone mein hai, jo downward movement ko mazid support deta hai. Akhri trading session mein, pair girawat par tha aur doosray support level ke neeche apni position barkarar rakha. Friday ko bears ka ghalba raha, jahan price 1.3122 par close hui.

**Key Levels aur Market Insights**
Aaj ke liye key intraday benchmarks aur further decline ke imkanaat mein classic Pivot support levels shamil hain. Downward movement jari rahegi, aur agar price third support level ko breach karti hai, toh ek aur girawat ka silsila shuru ho sakta hai jo pair ko 1.2955 ke qareeb support line ke neeche push karega. Magar agar buyers market mein wapas daakhil hotay hain, toh unka ahem resistance point 1.3452 ho ga.

Maujooda market dynamics ke sath, traders ko critical support levels ke qareeb pohanchne par entry points ke liye hoshyar rehna chahiye. Aanay walay dino mein mazeed bullish ya bearish movements ke mauqe samnay aa saktay hain.

Supply Management (ISM) ki taraf se raat ko jaari ki gayi strong economic activity report service sector mein mazid growth ka ishara deti hai. Halanke unemployment claims thodi barh gayi hain, magar yeh phir bhi normal hadon mein hain. Kyunke pehle non-farm labor ke hawale se ADP report ne bhi kaafi acha izafa dikhaya tha. Agar in data ko milaya jaye, toh aaj raat ko aane wali NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) report ke expectations ko 147K se zyada paar karne ka imkaan hai, jo USD ko is hafte ke doran apne bullish trend ko barqarar rakhne ka moqa dega. Agar weekly chart dekha jaye, toh USDX ka weekly basis par 102.00 se upar close karne ka imkaan hai. Daily chart (jo ke left side par hai) mein yeh wazeh hai ke GBP/USD market ne 1.3212 - 1.3156 ke yellow base area ke neechay close kiya hai. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke paas 1.3000 level ke significant support ki taraf girne ka bara imkaan hai. Is price level se market mein strong buyer reaction ke zariye ek bounce hone ka bara imkaan hai, kyunke yahaan strong support zone hai, jo ke lower BB aur Purple EMA100 ke darmiyan hai. Iske ilawa, yeh area wo lowest swing hai jab price 1.3430 ki taraf upar jaane wala tha, toh isko future trading ke liye buying ke liye rujhan banaya ja sakta hai. Lekin, Daily Red EMA200 ki taraf mazeed girawat ka imkaan bhi khula hai, magar iske liye zaroori shart yeh hai ke 1.3000 ke gray support ka solid tor hona zaroori hai. Filhaal, market ka bearish rujhan barqarar hai, is liye agar koi upward correction hoti hai aur yellow resistance ke 1.3156 tak pohanchti hai, toh yeh ek acha waqt hoga sell option ko open karne ke liye. Daily basis par sell scenario ko H4 basis par bhi support milta hai. Pehle se hi ek bearish signal momentum sell candlestick ki shakal mein nazar aya jo lower BB ko poori taqat ke sath tor gaya, isliye downward movement impulsive thi. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke overall price quotation Red EMA200 se neeche hai, isliye medium-term trend reversal ka imkaan kam hai. Is assumption ke madde nazar, jab price upar uthegi toh yeh sirf ek correction hogi aur hum sell karne ke liye tayar hain. Mere khayal mein behtareen sell location green resistance 1.3169 ke qareeb hai, jo pehle ki Daily basis par re-entry sell area ke mutabiq hai. Is tarah ka sync analysis hamein zyada confidence deta hai

GBP/USD currency pair ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility ko showcase kiya hai, jo ke UK aur US ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain.
Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf. Kai dafa higher push ki koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko significant resistance levels par challenges ka samna karna para. Is waqt, price EMA ke aas paas hover kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh iss level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barqarar rehne ki umeed hai
GBPUSD ki harakat yeh dikhati hai ke yeh resistance 1.3425 aur support 1.3365 ke beech sideway/ranging hai. Resistance 1.3425 ko baar baar test kiya gaya hai, aur ab yeh fresh nahi hai, is liye asani se toota ja sakta hai. Waisa hi support 1.3365 bhi ab fresh nahi hai, aur agar harga neeche ki taraf jaata hai, toh support 1.3313 tak pahunch sakta hai. Is waqt trend ab bhi bullish hai aur harga upar jaane ki sambhavana rakh raha hai. Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke harga pehle thoda correction dekhe kyunke six weeks tak continuous rally hui hai. Stochastic indicator bhi bullish movement ko support kar raha hai, lekin oversold zone tak nahi pahunch raha. Yeh sab milkar yeh dikhata hai ke GBPUSD abhi bhi upar ki taraf ja sakta hai, lekin cautious rehna zaroori hai

اکتوبر 7 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

جس دن امریکی لیبر ڈیٹا جاری کیا گیا اس دن برطانوی پاؤنڈ نے 100 سے زیادہ پپس کی رینج دکھائی۔ دن ایک سفید موم بتی کے ساتھ بند ہوا، جسم ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے نیچے بسنے کے ساتھ۔ قیمت 1.3080 کی سپورٹ لیول سے نمایاں طور پر اچھال گئی۔ آج، پاؤنڈ دن کی شروعات اوپر کی حرکت کے ساتھ کرتا ہے۔ قیمت 1.3141 اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی ہدف کی سطح پر مزاحمت کے ذریعے ٹوٹنے سے پہلے صرف ایک چھوٹا سا فاصلہ رہ جاتا ہے۔



اگر قیمت اس سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہوتی ہے، تو یہ 1.3220 پر اگلے ہدف کی طرف بڑھتا رہے گا۔ 1.3525 کی ہدف کی سطح ایک اہم ہدف کی طرح نظر آتی ہے، کیونکہ قیمت کا مقصد اس نقطہ کے لیے ہے جہاں یہ قیمت چینل لائن سے ملتی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن ممکنہ الٹ جانے کی نشاندہی کرتی ہے۔ مزید برآں، قیمت بیلنس انڈیکیٹر لائن سے اوپر رہتی ہے، جو تجویز کرتی ہے کہ پورے تین اعداد و شمار میں کمی اصلاحی ہے۔ 1.3080 کی سطح سے نیچے ایک دوسری گراوٹ قیمت کی اوپر کی صلاحیت کو بے اثر کر سکتی ہے اور 1.2994 کے ہدف کو کھول سکتی ہے، جو 11 ستمبر سے کم ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت 1.3080 اور 1.3141 کے درمیان مضبوط ہو رہی ہے۔ مارلن قیمت کو 1.3141 کی سطح سے اوپر لے جانے میں مدد کے لیے اوپر کی طرف دھکیل رہا ہے۔ اس اقدام کی کامیابی کو فی الحال مرکزی منظر نامے کے طور پر دیکھا جا رہا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD ka analysis aaj kal kafi pechida aur ghambir hota ja raha hai. Pichle kuch waqt se, wave pattern kafi wazeh lag raha tha aur bearish wave set ki formation ko suggest kar raha tha, jiska target 1.2300 se neeche tha. Lekin, aam taur par U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi hai ke ye scenario ab utna feasible nahi lagta. Demand ab bhi barh rahi hai. Abhi jo wave pattern hai, wo kafi mushkil aur complex ho gaya hai. Main aksar simple structures ka istemal karta hoon analysis ke liye, kyunke complex structures mein zyada nuances aur ambiguity hoti hai. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke ek upward wave ne ek downward wave ko overlap kar diya hai, jo pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai, jo pehle ke downward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai (ye saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Hum sirf itna keh sakte hain ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai aur balancing line 1.2600 ke aas-paas. Lekin ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern se fit nahi ho rahi, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neeche wale chart mein alternative wave count dikhaya gaya hai. Market ne ek nayi wajah se kharidari shuru ki hai. GBP/USD exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points se gir gaya, jo ke itna zyada nahi hai given aaj ke news background ko. Kam se kam do FOMC members ne September meeting mein rate cut ki appropriateness par doubts express kiye. Kuch ghante pehle, U.S. GDP report for Q2 release hui, jisme US economy 3.0% grow hui, jabke pehle estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh bhi ke U.S. economy Q1 se do guna tez hui hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke U.S. dollar ka 35 basis point ka faida chhota hai; isse din ke end tak kafi zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton se bearish wave ke bawajood, mujhe pair ke girne ke siwa kuch nahi lagta. Main kisi aur movement ko trade karne ka sochta nahi, given the current news background. Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims par tha. Lekin is report ki value market expectations ke kareeb thi, isliye koi khaas reaction nahi hua. Overall, kuch doosre analysts ki tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke dollar bohot oversold hai, aur market agle paanch rounds ke Fed policy easing ko price kar rahi hai, lekin September mein rate cut hone ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke instrument mein aage kaafi increase ka koi sense nahi ban raha, isliye main aise movements ko trade karne ki advise nahi dunga. GBP/USD ka wave pattern abhi bhi decline ka suggest kar raha hai. Given ke upward trend segment 22 April se shuru hua aur ab tak ek five-wave form le chuka hai, hume ab kam se kam ek three-wave correction expect karni chahiye. Mere nazar mein, pair ko 1.2627 ke aas-paas targets ke saath sell karna consider karna chahiye. Lekin abhi tak kisi bhi last upward wave ke end ka signal nahi hai, lekin corrective wave ke formation ki umeed abhi bhi ki ja sakti hai. Bade wave scale par, wave pattern transform ho gaya hai. Ab hum ek complex aur extended upward corrective structure ka assumption le sakte hain. Filhal ye ek three-wave structure hai, lekin ye five-wave structure mein bhi transform ho Click image for larger versions
Click image for larger version

**Good afternoon!**

Filhal, pound zyada upar ki taraf nahi ja raha hai, aur recent northern pullbacks zyada tar correction lag rahi hain. Yeh adjustment 38.4% level par 1.2650 tak chadh sakta hai, jahan ek nearby resistance bhi maujood hai at 1.2745. Lekin, mein tabhi pound ke trend ko consider karunga jab yeh 36.4% level tak pohnch jayega. Abhi ke liye, EMA200 1.2580 par resistance level ke roop mein hai, jo aage ke development ke liye ek achi launching platform ban sakti hai.

Movement abhi bhi tezi se ho raha hai, lekin overly optimistic statements banane ke bajaye patterns aur figures ka analysis zaroori hai. GBP/USD chart ko H1 aur H4 par dekhte hue, ek “Diamond” pattern ban raha hai. Agar yeh pattern theek rahta hai, to hum expect kar sakte hain ke pound agle resistance levels, 1.2715, aur uske baad EMA150, aur phir shayad 1.2645 tak pohnche. EMA50 ke paas se ek reversal downward ki bhi sambhavana hai. Lekin yeh speculative hai, aur patterns aur calculations dono is scenario ko confirm ya disprove kar sakti hain. Filhal, yeh mera outlook hai.

Pound shayad 1.2758 ke aas paas dheere dheere gir sakta hai. Yahan par zyada levels consider nahi karne hain. Aapka best bet yeh hoga ke aap 1.2700 aur 1.2648 ke aas paas demand ko monitor karein. Isliye, main in levels par nazar rakhoonga jab tak current trend uncertain hai. Iske bawajood, substantial buying ho sakti hai, lekin medium-term mein purchase ka faida nazar nahi aata. Pound ne cross-pairs mein kaafi ucha chadhai kiya hai, isliye kuch restraint zaroori lagti hai. Is wajah se, ek slight correction aur downward movement ka period jaldi expected ho sakta hai.

October ke aghaz mein spot price mein thodi si kami dekhne ko mili, jo 1.3055 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha aur North American session ke dauran 0.32% neeche tha. Labor Day ki wajah se US financial markets band the, is liye session mein koi khaas harkat ki umeed nahi thi. Traders abhi bhi 1.3250 ke aas paas consolidation ka intezar kar rahe hain, aur unki nigah aanewale US jobs data par hai, jo September mein Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke faislay ke liye bohot aham hoga.

Traders ko ab US se aanewale economic data par ghoor se nazar rakhni hogi, kyun ke is se GBP/USD pair ki harakat par bohot asar par sakta hai. Federal Reserve ke faislay jo ke labor market aur inflation data par mabni hote hain, pair ki direction ka faisla karenge. Agar Federal Reserve apni ummeed se bara rate cut karta hai, to US Dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai, jo ke British Pound ko support faraham karega.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Bank of England (BoE) se umeed hai ke woh baqi ka saal dhairay dhairay interest rates kam karega, jo ke Pound Sterling (GBP) ko mazbooti de sakta hai. Jackson Hole Symposium mein BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha ke inflationary pressures utne sakht nahi ho sakte jitna pehle socha gaya tha, lekin unhone yeh bhi kaha ke interest rates ko foran kam karna koi samajhdari nahi hogi, aur ek ahista aur sochi samjhi approach apnani chahiye.

US Federal Reserve ke easing expectations abhi bhi US Dollar (USD) par neeche ka dabao daal rahi hain. Fed ke Chair Jerome Powell ne guzishta hafte ishara diya ke rate cut ka imkaan hai, aur unho ne labor market ke hawale se apni fikr ka izhar kiya. Traders, jo CME FedWatch tool ka istemal karte hain, woh 25 basis points (bps) ka cut September mein 70% imkaan ke sath price kar rahe hain, jabke 50 bps cut ka imkaan sirf 30% hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ko kuch aham support aur resistance levels ka samna hai jo iski qareebi direction ka taayun karenge. Agar price 1.3060 ke neeche girta hai, to chhoti muddat ke liye mazeed neeche jaane ke imkanaat hain, aur yeh 1.3020 tak gir sakta hai. Agar yeh level tut jata hai to 1.2950 range tak bhi girawat aasakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar bulls ko control mein rehna hai, to price ko 1.3100 ke upar rakhna hoga, aur September 2 ke peak 1.3156 ke upar break karna hoga taake aur barhawa mil sake.

Spot price abhi tak ek chhoti 1.3050-1.3150 range mein consolidation ke baad upward-biased hai. Agar buyers price ko 1.3150 ke upar push karne mein kaamyab ho jate hain, to mazeed unchi prices ke liye rasta saaf ho sakta hai. Bullish sentiment ko Relative Strength Index (RSI) se mazeed support mil raha hai, jo buyers ke haq mein short-term momentum dikhata hai.