gbp/usd

GBP USD breakdown ne bullish bias ko khatam kar diya, jiss wajah se mujhe selling ki taraf shift karna para. Ab mein umeed kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giray gi. Yeh price aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai, ya to bearish channel ke lower boundary tak ya phir support level 1.29384 tak. Dobara buying ka sochna us waqt ho ga jab bullish buy level ka breakout hoga. Abhi mera alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko tod dete hain, tou mein foran buying ki taraf shift ho jaoonga, aur kam az kam 1.31849-1.32089 ke resistance levels tak ka izafa dekhne ki umeed hai. Pehle ke high tak bhi growth ka potential hai. Main abhi tak upward move ko mumkin samajh raha hoon, is liye apna buy position close karne mein hichkichahat hai. 1.3049 ke qareeb, ek full-scale upward movement meri profit target 1.3407 tak ja sakti hai, halan ke mein isay confirm nahi kar sakta. Lekin agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jaate hain, tou mein shayad apna buy position manually close kar doon, kyun ke us waqt bullish move ke chances kaafi kam ho jaayenge. Maine pehle 1.3099-1.3049 tak ke drop ki tawaqo ki thi aur ab bhi uska intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke abhi pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne to apne gains ko lagbhag erase kar diya, lekin pound ne sirf 29% ka retrace kiya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% pe aata hai aur significant drop show karta hai, jisse ECB rates cut kare Fed ki tarah, tou UK ka inflation data abhi pending hai. Jab yeh release hoga, tou umeed hai ke market realize karegi ke Bank of England rates ko kam karta rahega. Kul mila ke, is hafte ke liye mera GBP/USD ka outlook bearish hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh 1.3141 se upar jaayeg Lagta hai ke GBP/USD mein foran 1.3199 ya usse zyada ka izafa Friday ke close ke baad mushkil hai, kyunke dollar fundamentals ki wajah se mazid mazboot ho gaya hai. H1 chart par downward pressure mazid barh raha hai, aur momentum bhi kaafi strong lag raha hai. Iss waqt selling buying se zyada mufeed lagta hai, kyunke long positions ke liye mazeed favorable prices abhi aanay ka imkaan hai. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 ke range mein selling opportunities dekhi ja sakti hain jo ke 1.3074 support ke niche break ko target karengi. Kai buyers ne apne stops yahan rakhe hain, aur market wahan ja sakta hai, is liye abhi buying ke liye waqt jaldi hai. Haan, agar 1.3074 support ke niche stops toot jaate hain, toh buying transactions mazid favorable ho sakti hain. Agar corrective move dekha jaye, for example

GBP/USD Pair Review

Pound sterling ka price Thursday ko $1.27 par qaim raha, jo ke teen hafton ke sabse oonchay level ke qareeb tha, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein parliamentary elections ke liye votes daalay gaye. Centre-left Labor Party opinion polls mein aage thi, aur mumkin hai ke yeh British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ki Conservative Party ko gira de. Kuch andazay yeh bhi hain ke Labor Party ko aksariyat milne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 2005 ke baad general elections mein unka pehla fatah hoga. US jobs numbers ka elan honay se pehle GBP/USD ka price resistance level 1.2780 ke qareeb stable tha.

Kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh siyasi tabdeeli pound sterling, stock market, aur Britain mein investments par acha asar daal sakti hai, aur Britain ki "safe haven" ke tor par shohrat ko bahal kar sakti hai, jab ke doosray ilaqay siyasi uncertainty ka shikar hain. Monetary policy ke hawalay se, investors yeh tawaqqa kar rahe hain ke August mein Bank of England ke faida ke rates mein cut hoga, jab ke inflation central bank ke 2% target tak gir chuki hai.

Trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year bond yield apni recent highs se neeche hai, aur sab ki nazarain elections par hain. British government bonds par 10-year yield Thursday ko takreeban 4.18% thi, jo ke Monday ko chhuti 4.28% se kam thi, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein elections ho rahe thay. Labour Party opinion polls mein aage hai aur Conservative Party ko girane ka imkaan hai, jise Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lead kar rahe hain.

Forex market trading ke mutabiq, British pound ne 2024 ke general election mein achi performance dikhai hai, lekin 10pm par exit poll ke elan ke waqt kuch volatility aasakti hai. Exit poll Thursday raat ko 10pm par ek bara waqt hoga kyun ke yeh ziada tar accurate andaza deta hai ke agla Prime Minister kaun hoga aur uska control kitna mazboot hoga. Base case ke tor par, agar Keir Starmer ki Labour Party ko bari jeet milti hai, to hum expect karte hain ke pound mein izafa hoga jab yeh natija confirm ho jata hai.

Currencies ko certainty pasand hoti hai, aur ek bari Labour jeet sterling exchange rates mein baqi rahne wale risk premium ko khatam kar degi, chahe yeh kitna bhi chhota ho. Barclays Bank ke mutabiq, “British general elections is haftay ka main focus hain, aur ziada tar plausible scenarios, jo ke available opinion polls ke mutabiq hain, pound ki mazeed taqat ko stimulate karte hain.” Is leehaz se, Barclays pound ko euro ke against buy kar raha hai, jo ke French election ke natije ke baad limited recovery dikhayega.

Latest large-scale YouGov poll ke mutabiq, Conservatives sirf 102 MPs tak ghatte nazar aate hain, jo ke party ne pichlay 5 saal mein jeeti hui seats ka 70% kho dene ka matlab hai, aur Labour ko 1832 ke baad se apni sabse bari aksariyat milegi. Deutsche Bank ke Gopal ka andaza hai ke agar Labour achi performance dikhati hai, to pound ki rate ziada tabdeel nahi hogi, aur “EUR/GBP ka risk premium zyada rates par mabni rahega.”

Lekin agar Conservatives opinion polls se behtar karti hain, to yeh sterling ke liye tail risk ho sakta hai, jo ke mumkin hai kyun ke kai voters ab tak faisla nahi kar paye. Agar hung parliament hota hai – jisme koi party aksariyat nahi jeetti – to yeh uncertainty peda karega, jis se sterling kamzor hosakta hai. Yeh sochte hue, pound-euro exchange rate 1.18 se neeche gir sakta hai. Agar French election bhi hung legislature ka natija deta hai, to phir 1.1750 aur 1.17 ke midpoints tak ka rasta saaf hoga. Issi waqt, GBP/USD exchange rate wapas 1.27 tak gir sakti hai, lekin hum samajhte hain ke US ka jobs report Friday ko final asar dalega.

Sterling Dollar ka aaj ka forecast:

Aaj ke US jobs numbers ka reaction GBP/USD ke liye is haftay ke trading ka closing price tay karega, jo ke ek bullish weekly close ke qareeb hai. Jaise pehle zikar kiya, resistance 1.2775 bulls ke control mein wapas anay ke liye sabse important station hai, aur daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, price resistance levels 1.2830 aur 1.2900 tak pohonch sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar price wapas 1.2660 ke support area tak jati hai, to yeh upward rebound ke liye khatra hai.

GBP/USD Currency Pair Price Action Breakdown GBP/USD apne aakhri waqt mein U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein mazboot hota ja raha hai, jo ek aham rukh hai dekhne ke liye. GBP/USD ke four-hour chart par yeh upward movement puri tarah se chal rahi hai, aur buying opportunities kaafi favorable lag rahi hain. Maine kuch signals identify kiye hain jo long positions ke liye positive hain.
MACD histogram ne negative zone se shift hotey hue zero level ko cross kiya hai aur ab positive territory mein hai. Agar yeh movement 50% se zyada hoti hai aur open long position profitable ban jaati hai, toh stop-loss ko breakeven par le jaana samajdari hai. Halankeh order book mein dekhi gayi selling wave is growth ko support karti hai, lekin yeh abhi tak clear nahi hai ke price kitna upar ja sakta hai. Zyada volumes dekhne ko mile hain, jo aage ke development ke liye zyada space nahi chhodte. Buying momentum ab dheere dheere kam ho raha hai, aur price ab aise lag raha hai ke additional purchases ke liye bohot high hai. Isliye, mujhe umeed hai ke yeh pair jald hi reversal karega.

Market ke nazar mein, traders ko British pound ke liye koi achhe entry points nahi dikh rahe hain, lekin unka rukh bearish correction ki taraf hai. Asset price is waqt ek significant weekly liquidity level 1.3401 ke aas-paas test kar raha hai, jo shayad Asian trading session ke doran ho raha hai. Trader ko umeed hai ke correction opposite liquidity areas 1.3238 aur 1.3222 ke aas-paas aayegi, jinko unhoon ne pehle highlight kiya tha. Ab wo market close ka intezar kar rahe hain taake dekhein ke Asian traders kaise respond karte hain.

Maujooda growth speculative lagti hai, jo Britain mein economic decline aur U.S. ki economic strength se driven hai. Technically, agar resistance line tooti hai toh ye further buying opportunities ka signal ho sakta hai, lekin trader ka rukh ab bhi ek aur rebound ki taraf hai jo corrective decline ko trigger kar sakta hai, shayad 1.3366 tak.

GBP/USD pair ne American session ke dusre hise mein lagataar growth dekhi hai, jo trader ki analysis ko galat sabit karti hai. Unhoon ne 1.3401 level se rebound aur baad mein corrective decline ki tawaqqo ki thi, lekin asal mein unhoon ne sell trade mein entry ki aur phir bhi upward momentum dekha. Price steady rise par hai, jo upward-trending channel bana raha hai. Yeh recent movement ka exact sabab clear nahi hai, lekin lagta hai ke ek major player choti dips par asset ko khareed raha hai, jo price ko upar le ja raha hai. Yeh growth jo 6:31 PM Moscow time se shuru hui, shayad northward channel ke upper limit tak, jo 1.3431 ke aas-paas hai, c