GBP/USD ke exchange rate mein do din ki girawat hui, jo North American session mein Friday ko 1.3150 se neeche chali gayi. Yeh neeche ki taraf movement U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data ke release ke baad hui, jo July ke liye ummeed se dheemi aayi. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 101.50 se upar chala gaya, jo U.S. dollar ki taqat ko chhey badi currencies ke against reflect kar raha hai.
PCE inflation report se maloom hua ke core inflation, jo volatile khoraak aur energy ke daam ko exclude karta hai, 2.6% bara, jo anticipated 2.6% se neeche raha. Mahwari tor par core inflation mein 0.2% izafa hua, jo expectations ke mutabiq hai. Tareekhi tor par, PCE inflation data Federal Reserve ke interest rate ke faislon mein ahem kirdar adaa karta raha hai. Lekin is martaba, core inflation data se market ke spekulasyon par limited asar ki tawaqqo hai ke Fed ke rate cuts ki raah ki taraf.
Abhi officials U.S. labor market ki taqat ke mumkin khatron par tashweesh ka izhaar kar rahe hain, jab ke yaqeen barh raha hai ke inflation Fed ke 2% target ki taraf girti rahegi. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne apni speech mein Jackson Hole (JH) symposium mein pichlay hafta, risks ke balance mein shift ko highlight kiya. Dusre Fed policymakers ne bhi yeh ishara diya ke agar labor market mein tez girawat ke mazeed saboot milay, toh Fed apne key borrowing rate mein khasa cut lagane se hichkichaega nahi.
Financial market participants is waqt tawaqqo kar rahe hain ke Fed September mein rate cuts shuru karne par taqriban yaqini hai. Lekin, PCE inflation data se price pressures mein aane wale istahkam ke asaraat ne aggressive policy easing cycle par lagaye gaye bets ko thanda kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis point rate cut ki probability 36% se kam ho kar 30.5% tak aagai hai.
GBP/USD apni correction ko 1.3150 ke neeche extend kar raha hai, jab ke woh 1.3200 level ke qareeb barhna mein nakaam raha. Is ke bawajood, near-term outlook GBP/USD ka positive hai jab ke weekly time frame par ascending channel chart pattern ko break kiya. Agar bullish momentum jaari rehti hai, toh GBP/USD se tawaqqo hai ke psychological resistance 1.3500 aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak pahunch sakta hai, jab ke naya 2.5 saal ka high 1.3266 ko break kiya. 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) 1.3000 level ke qareeb aa raha hai, jo ke mazboot uptrend ko zahir karta hai. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 aur 80.00 ke bullish range mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong bullish momentum ki taraf ishara karta hai. Lekin, yeh ab bhi overbought levels ke qareeb hai, jo 70.00 ke aas paas hai, jis se pullback ki imkanat barh jati hain. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological level GBP bulls ke liye main support rahega.
PCE inflation report se maloom hua ke core inflation, jo volatile khoraak aur energy ke daam ko exclude karta hai, 2.6% bara, jo anticipated 2.6% se neeche raha. Mahwari tor par core inflation mein 0.2% izafa hua, jo expectations ke mutabiq hai. Tareekhi tor par, PCE inflation data Federal Reserve ke interest rate ke faislon mein ahem kirdar adaa karta raha hai. Lekin is martaba, core inflation data se market ke spekulasyon par limited asar ki tawaqqo hai ke Fed ke rate cuts ki raah ki taraf.
Abhi officials U.S. labor market ki taqat ke mumkin khatron par tashweesh ka izhaar kar rahe hain, jab ke yaqeen barh raha hai ke inflation Fed ke 2% target ki taraf girti rahegi. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne apni speech mein Jackson Hole (JH) symposium mein pichlay hafta, risks ke balance mein shift ko highlight kiya. Dusre Fed policymakers ne bhi yeh ishara diya ke agar labor market mein tez girawat ke mazeed saboot milay, toh Fed apne key borrowing rate mein khasa cut lagane se hichkichaega nahi.
Financial market participants is waqt tawaqqo kar rahe hain ke Fed September mein rate cuts shuru karne par taqriban yaqini hai. Lekin, PCE inflation data se price pressures mein aane wale istahkam ke asaraat ne aggressive policy easing cycle par lagaye gaye bets ko thanda kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis point rate cut ki probability 36% se kam ho kar 30.5% tak aagai hai.
GBP/USD apni correction ko 1.3150 ke neeche extend kar raha hai, jab ke woh 1.3200 level ke qareeb barhna mein nakaam raha. Is ke bawajood, near-term outlook GBP/USD ka positive hai jab ke weekly time frame par ascending channel chart pattern ko break kiya. Agar bullish momentum jaari rehti hai, toh GBP/USD se tawaqqo hai ke psychological resistance 1.3500 aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak pahunch sakta hai, jab ke naya 2.5 saal ka high 1.3266 ko break kiya. 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) 1.3000 level ke qareeb aa raha hai, jo ke mazboot uptrend ko zahir karta hai. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 aur 80.00 ke bullish range mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong bullish momentum ki taraf ishara karta hai. Lekin, yeh ab bhi overbought levels ke qareeb hai, jo 70.00 ke aas paas hai, jis se pullback ki imkanat barh jati hain. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological level GBP bulls ke liye main support rahega.
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