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EUR/USD ka Bearish Trend – Aik Tajziya
Bazaar ki Halat aur Range-bound Market


Pichlay haftay main ne EUR/USD ka bearish trend observe kiya, jisme price action bohot volatile raha. Market range-bound nazar aayi, jahan aik sell signal aaya magar wo materialize nahi hua. Yeh failure market sentiment ke sudden shift ki wajah se ho sakta hai.
Buy Signal aur False Breakout


Ek buy signal session ke aghaz mein aya, jo mujhe reversal lag raha tha, magar yeh bhi sustain nahi kar saka. Yeh baat bearish pressure ki dominance ko reinforce karti hai.
Sell Signal aur Partial Target


Baad mein ek sell signal aaya, jo thora kamiyab raha kyunki price target ka aadha safar tay kar saka. Yeh bullish defenses ke weak hone ka indication tha.
Bull Trap aur Resistance Level ka Todna


Mein ne buy signal dekha jab price 1.04395 resistance level ke upar gaya, magar yeh ek bull trap sabit hua kyunki price foran reverse kar gaya. Jab price dobara 1.04395 ke neeche close hua, tou yeh sell signal confirm ho gaya, jo overall downtrend ke saath align tha.
Support Levels aur Fibonacci Analysis


Price 1.03502 support level ki taraf gaya, jo ek significant technical zone hai. Mein ne 200-day moving average (MA) ka test bhi dekha, jahan sellers baar baar active ho rahe hain magar bears ab tak ise decisively break nahi kar sake.

Mein 50% Fibonacci retracement level ko critical target dekh raha hoon. Agar price apni recent highs hold karne mein nakam hota hai, tou yeh downward pressure ko barhane ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar bearish momentum tez hota hai, tou price 61.8% Fibonacci support tak gir sakta hai.
Rebound aur Future Expectations


Agar price 50% Fibonacci level se rebound karta hai, tou short-term bullish bounce ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price 61.8% tak jata hai, tou yeh ek strong support zone ban sakta hai, jahan bullish reversal ka chance barh jata hai.
Cautiously Bullish Outlook aur Next Moves


Mein cautiously bullish hoon agar 61.8% Fibonacci level defend hota hai ya wahan se bounce aata hai. Magar macroeconomic factors ka asar bhi price movement par hoga. 200-day MA aur Fibonacci levels ka monitoring zaroori hai taake next directional move ka andaaza lagaya ja sake.
Key Levels Jo Monitor Karne Hain

• 1.03502: Agar price is level ke neeche close hota hai, tou aur zyada downside ka chance hai.
• 1.02670: Agla target jo bearish momentum mein test ho sakta hai.
• 200-Day MA: Yeh ek crucial resistance hai jo market structure ko define karega.
• 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci: Yeh dono important technical levels hain jo price ki future direction ka taayun karenge.

Mein confirmation ke bina premature entries lene se bachunga, kyunki market abhi bhi kaafi choppy hai.

EUR/USD ka Bearish Trend – Aik Tajziya Bazaar ki Halat aur Range-bound Market


Pichlay haftay main ne EUR/USD ka bearish trend observe kiya, jisme price action bohot volatile raha. Market range-bound nazar aayi, jahan aik sell signal aaya magar wo materialize nahi hua. Yeh failure market sentiment ke sudden shift ki wajah se ho sakta hai.
Buy Signal aur False Breakout


Ek buy signal session ke aghaz mein aya, jo mujhe reversal lag raha tha, magar yeh bhi sustain nahi kar saka. Yeh baat bearish pressure ki dominance ko reinforce karti hai.
Sell Signal aur Partial Target


Baad mein ek sell signal aaya, jo thora kamiyab raha kyunki price target ka aadha safar tay kar saka. Yeh bullish defenses ke weak hone ka indication tha.
Bull Trap aur Resistance Level ka Todna


Mein ne buy signal dekha jab price 1.04395 resistance level ke upar gaya, magar yeh ek bull trap sabit hua kyunki price foran reverse kar gaya. Jab price dobara 1.04395 ke neeche close hua, tou yeh sell signal confirm ho gaya, jo overall downtrend ke saath align tha.
Support Levels aur Fibonacci Analysis


Price 1.03502 support level ki taraf gaya, jo ek significant technical zone hai. Mein ne 200-day moving average (MA) ka test bhi dekha, jahan sellers baar baar active ho rahe hain magar bears ab tak ise decisively break nahi kar sake.

Mein 50% Fibonacci retracement level ko critical target dekh raha hoon. Agar price apni recent highs hold karne mein nakam hota hai, tou yeh downward pressure ko barhane ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar bearish momentum tez hota hai, tou price 61.8% Fibonacci support tak gir sakta hai.
Rebound aur Future Expectations


Agar price 50% Fibonacci level se rebound karta hai, tou short-term bullish bounce ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price 61.8% tak jata hai, tou yeh ek strong support zone ban sakta hai, jahan bullish reversal ka chance barh jata hai.
Cautiously Bullish Outlook aur Next Moves


Mein cautiously bullish hoon agar 61.8% Fibonacci level defend hota hai ya wahan se bounce aata hai. Magar macroeconomic factors ka asar bhi price movement par hoga. 200-day MA aur Fibonacci levels ka monitoring zaroori hai taake next directional move ka andaaza lagaya ja sake.
Key Levels Jo Monitor Karne Hain
1.03502: Agar price is level ke neeche close hota hai, tou aur zyada downside ka chance hai.
1.02670: Agla target jo bearish momentum mein test ho sakta hai.
200-Day MA: Yeh ek crucial resistance hai jo market structure ko define karega.
50% & 61.8% Fibonacci: Yeh dono important technical levels hain jo price ki future direction ka taayun karenge.

Mein confirmation ke bina premature entries lene se bachunga, kyunki market abhi bhi kaafi choppy hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD – Bearish Pressure Persists as USD Strengthens Amid Global Growth Concerns

The EUR/USD pair has dropped back near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) gaining ground due to renewed concerns about global economic growth. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has extended its recovery to around 108.40, rebounding from the two-week low of 107.75 posted on Wednesday.
The recent strengthening of the USD comes as market sentiment shifts toward caution, with investors closely monitoring the potential consequences of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding global trade and economic stability has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, including the USD, leading to a decline in risk-sensitive currencies like the euro (EUR).

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Fundamental Analysis: Trump’s Tariffs & ECB’s Response

1. Trump’s Tariff Strategy and Economic Concerns
President Donald Trump has announced tariff hikes that will take effect on February 1, 2025:

• 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
• 10% tariffs on China
• Proposed tariffs on European imports, which he justified by accusing the European Union (EU) of unfair trade practices

These measures are expected to disrupt global trade flows, impact export-driven economies like the Eurozone, and potentially slow down economic growth worldwide.
Unlike his previous term, Trump’s new tariff approach appears to be more gradual, leading some analysts to believe that its impact may not be as severe as initially feared. However, the market remains cautious, as trade wars typically lead to inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, which could affect the US and global economies.
2. ECB President Lagarde’s Warning on Trade War Risks
In response to Trump’s trade policy, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concerns about the potential economic fallout and urged European policymakers to be prepared.
In an interview with CNBC, Lagarde remarked that Trump’s decision to impose selective and focused tariffs was a "smart approach" rather than blanket levies, which often do not yield expected results. However, she warned that Europe must anticipate the potential economic consequences and prepare an appropriate response.
This suggests that the ECB may be considering stimulus measures or other monetary policy actions if Trump’s tariffs start affecting European exports and economic performance.

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Upcoming Catalysts: Fed & ECB Policy Decisions

Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce their first monetary policy decisions of 2025 next week.
1. Federal Reserve (Fed) Outlook

• The US economy has remained relatively resilient, with solid labor market data and higher-than-expected inflation readings, which may prompt the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance.
• Although some market participants were expecting rate cuts in early 2025, the strong USD and inflation risks could delay any dovish pivot by the Fed.
• If the Fed maintains its current stance or signals fewer rate cuts, the USD will likely remain strong, putting further downside pressure on EUR/USD.

2. European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook

• The ECB faces a more challenging economic landscape, with sluggish growth, weaker inflation, and rising concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
• If Lagarde signals a more dovish stance or hints at potential rate cuts in 2025, the euro could decline further, exacerbating the bearish outlook for EUR/USD.
• On the other hand, if the ECB signals proactive measures to counter trade risks, the euro might stabilize, but overall sentiment remains fragile.

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Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Key Levels & Market Sentiment

1. EUR/USD Price Action & Support Levels

• The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0400, which is a key psychological support level.
• A break below 1.0400 could lead to a further decline toward 1.0350 and then 1.0300, the lowest level seen in November 2023.
• If the pair rebounds from this level, it may face immediate resistance near 1.0450, followed by 1.0500, where selling pressure could intensify.

2. Technical Indicators Suggest Bearish Outlook

• Moving Averages: The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently below 40, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold conditions, but there is still room for further decline.
• Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The 38.2% retracement level at 1.0450 serves as an intermediate resistance, while the 61.8% retracement at 1.0350 could act as a support level.

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Market Sentiment & Trading Strategy

1. Bearish Sentiment Prevails

• The combination of a strong USD, Trump’s tariff concerns, and ECB uncertainty is likely to keep EUR/USD under pressure.
• Unless there is a shift in monetary policy expectations or a resolution to trade tensions, the downward trajectory could continue.

2. Trading Strategy for EUR/USD

• Short Position:
  • Entry: Below 1.0400
  • Target: 1.0350 and 1.0300
  • Stop-loss: Above 1.0450
• Long Position (If Price Stabilizes Above 1.0400)
  • Entry: Above 1.0425
  • Target: 1.0480 – 1.0500
  • Stop-loss: Below 1.0380

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Conclusion: EUR/USD Likely to Remain Bearish

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, with the USD gaining strength due to Trump’s tariff policies, a cautious market sentiment, and uncertainty ahead of the Fed and ECB policy meetings.
As long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and trade tensions persist, the downside for EUR/USD is expected to continue. Traders should watch key levels near 1.0400, as a break below this support could accelerate losses toward 1.0350 and 1.0300.
Market participants should also keep an eye on ECB comments, US economic data, and any further trade developments, as they will be critical in determining the next major move for the pair.