eur/usd

EUR/USD ka girna ab ruk sakta hai aaj ke US CPI inflation data aur Thursday ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate faislay se pehle, chahe is ne haal hi mein mushkilat ka samna kiya ho aur Eurozone ke itnay achay data nahi aaye. US dollar CPI report se pehle thora kamzor ho gaya jab polls ne dikhaya ke Harris ne pehle presidential debate mein Trump ko outperform kiya. EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.

Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, khaaskar agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison mein.

ECB ka rate faisla kafi bara hoga. Ab tak, analysts is baat par mutafiq lag rahe hain ke ECB eurozone ki kamzor economy ke jawab mein rate cuts mein taizi nahi karega. June mein 25 basis points cut ke baad, umeed hai ke ECB Thursday ko ek aur aisi cut announce karega.

kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte

Pair Analysis**

Ham EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par, bears apne positions ko barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke wo abhi bhi retreat karne ko tayar nahi hain. Price ne 25% support ko 1.1068 par tod diya hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai, jo mujhe lagta hai ke bears ke liye ek target ban sakta hai. Main temporary upward correction ko nazarandaz nahi karta. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell signal de rahe hain, jo yeh darshata hai ke kuch consolidation ke baad bearish move honay ka imkaan hai. Indicators exchange rate ke girne ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain, shayad 1.0999 level tak recent breakdown ke baad. Koi aham tabdeeliyan nazar nahi aa rahi; euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo choti si red body wali candle mein reflect ho raha hai.

**U.S. Inflation Report Aur Market Reaction**

Wednesday ko, EUR/USD pair ne "super-important aur super-resonant" U.S. inflation report ke bawajood kaafi pur-sukoon trade kiya. Weekend par humne is report ko "event of the week" kaha, magar kuch traders ki reaction kaafi hairatangez thi. Seedhi baat yeh hai ke dollar barh gaya, jabke inflation 2.5% tak gir gaya. Aaj ke waqt tak, U.S. inflation ke recent reports ne ek hi nateeja diya—dollar ka girna. Yeh point absurdity tak pohnch gaya: U.S. currency minor deviations se bhi girti thi, ya phir bina kisi deviation ke bhi. Seedha yeh hai ke jab U.S. inflation girti hai, dollar bhi girta hai. Lekin kal ek aur aham lamha tha jo dollar ke do saal ke decline ka anjaam darshata hai. Market ne U.S. currency ko kharida, jabke inflation U.S. mein 2.5% tak dheemi ho gayi thi. Humne bar-bar kaha hai ke jab inflation target level ke nazdeek pohnchti hai, tab Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko easing par discussions shuru honi chahiye. Yeh August ke aakhir mein hua, magar yeh paradox hai—market ne do saal se Fed ke easing ko anticipate kiya hua hai, aur zyada chance hai ke yeh already fully priced in hai. Chahe hum 2022 ya 2023 ki baat na bhi karein, market ne is saal ke liye Fed ke maximum rate cuts ko anticipate kiya hai. Naturally, market ne in cuts ko pehle se hi price in kiya hai, jaise woh aksar karta hai. Jab inflation target ke nazdeek hai aur Fed ke paas rate ko ek baar nahi, balki ek complete cycle ke liye policy easing shuru karne ke reasons hain, to market ab is factor ko price in nahi kar sakti—yeh already price in ho chuka hai.

EUR/USD pair Tuesday ko lagbhag hilay baghair raha. Din ke pehle hisay mein euro thoda sa strong hua, lekin Germany aur EU ke ZEW economic sentiment indices umeedon se kafi bura aaye. Doosray hisay mein U.S. dollar ne thoda ground wapas liya kyun ke U.S. ke data market ki expectations se thoda behtar thay. Halankeh yahaan bhi kuch chhoti chhoti baton pe tanqeed ki ja sakti hai, jese industrial production 0.8% barhi (jahan forecast +0.2% thi), lekin pehle ka figure neeche revise kiya gaya. Sab se dilchasp baat yeh hai ke British pound ne issi waqt bohot zyada girawat dekhi. Mojooda halat ke mutabiq, pound ka girna bilkul theek lagta hai, kyun ke recent months mein is ka overbought hona aur be-wajah growth hui thi. Magar sawal yeh hai ke euro kyun still hai?

Pair ne trend line ko tor diya hai aur Ichimoku indicator ke dono lines ko bhi cross kar liya hai, jis se ab bullish trend ban gaya hai. Lekin yeh apne qareebi local high 1.1152 ko cross nahi kar saka. Is liye, technically downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. Kal ke market se kya umeed karni chahiye, yeh sirf Allah ko pata hoga. Filhaal, yeh clear nahi ke Federal Reserve ka kya faisla hoga, chhodiye Jerome Powell ke bayan ya "dot-plot" chart ko.

Kal sirf ek trading signal mila, jo ke bohot weak aur inaccurate tha. Volatility phir se kam thi, aur traders ko short positions lene ka mauqa mila, lekin woh sirf 10-15 pips ka profit bana sakay, kyun ke price qareebi level 1.1092 tak bhi nahi pohanch saka. Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ko ab ek asal chance mila hai ke yeh be-wajah upward trend ko khatam kare, magar yeh chances jaldi fade ho rahe hain. Trendline aur Senkou Span B line tor diye gaye hain. Ab global uptrend wapas shuru ho sakta hai. Fundamental aur macroeconomic reasons discuss karne ka koi faida nahi ke dollar ki girawat ka koi naya sabab hai — aise koi waja exist nahi karti. Magar price movement sirf market pe depend karti hai, aur market kisi bhi direction mein trade kar sakta hai, chahe news kuch bhi ho.







18 September ke liye hum in levels ko highlight karte hain: 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, aur Senkou Span B line (1.1077) aur Kijun-sen line (1.1074). Ichimoku indicator lines din ke doran move kar sakti hain, is liye jab trading signals identify kiye jayen, yeh baat dhyan mein rakhni chahiye. Agar price aapke expected direction mein 15 pips move kar jaye, to Stop Loss ko break-even pe set karna zaroori hai, taki agar signal ghalat ho jaye to potential loss se bacha ja sake.

Wednesday ko Eurozone ke liye August ki final inflation estimate release hogi, jo ke shayad pehli estimate se farq nahi karegi aur ziada interest attract nahi karegi. U.S. mein building permits aur new home sales ke reports publish hongi. Shaam ko Fed meeting hogi, key interest rate ka faisla sunaya jayega, "dot-plot" chart release hoga, aur Powell ke sath ek press conference hogi. Wednesday shaam aur Thursday ke din mein "market swings" dekhne ko mil sakti hain.

EUR/USD pair ne Asian trading hours mein Wednesday ko upar ki taraf trade kiya, jabke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se gehri interest rate cuts ki umeedon ke barhne ki wajah se market ko support mila. Eurozone ka harmonized consumer price index (HICP) aur Fed ka monetary policy meeting dono Wednesday ko schedule hain. Markets mein abhi tak raai mutaqarib nahi hai ke Fed 25 ya 50 basis points (bps) ka rate cut karega. Fed funds rate futures ke mutabiq ab 50 bps cut ka chance 60% tak barh gaya hai, jo Friday ko 45% tha, LSEG data ke mutabiq. Boris Kovacevic, jo global strategist hain Swiss Academy Vienna ke, unhone kaha ke agar Fed 50 bps ka rate cut karta hai, toh yeh recession ke khatray ko zyadah barhane ki nishandahi karega, jitni filhal expect ki ja rahi hai.

US Census Bureau ne Tuesday ko report kiya ke US retail sales unexpected taur par 0.1% barhi, jabke expectations thi 1.1% increase ki, aur European Central Bank officials ke consensus forecast -0.2% ka tha. European Central Bank (ECB) eurozone inflation data ko closely dekhega isi period ke liye, jo ke unke upcoming meeting decisions ko mutasir kar sakti hai. Magar short-term resistance trend line 1.1135 par, pair ki momentum ke liye ek risk ka sabab ban sakti hai, kyunke yeh level ab tak break nahi ho saka.






Technical Analysis:


Technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke bullish sentiment abhi tak strong hai, aur agar price 1.1135 se upar jati hai, toh yeh 1.1200 par August tak close kar sakti hai. Ek nayi upside wave start ho chuki hai, jisme sab se zyada promising upside potential 1.1275 area tak ja sakti hai. Yeh area surprising taur par 2021-22 ke decline ke 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ke sath overlap karta hai, aur agar price recent Arctic wave ke 161.8% Fibonacci extension tak jata hai, toh yeh 1.1325 tak extend kar sakta hai.

Agar price 20-day simple moving average (SMA) ke neeche 1.1090 par trade karti hai, toh support 1.1000 area ke qareeb mil sakti hai, jahan 50-day SMA 1.0980 ke aas-paas aayega. 1.0900-1.0940 area bhi ek barha risk bana sakta hai, kyunke yeh channel ke lower boundary aur long-term downtrend line ke qareeb hai. 50% Fibonacci key mark bhi yahan nazdeek hai.

EURUSD Pair ka Technical Analysis

1-hour chart par, price abhi ek triangle ke andar trade kar rahi hai jo ke white color se mark hai. Yeh triangle do channels ka natija hai; ek ascending channel jo ke price movement ka rujhan dikha raha hai pichlay do dinon ke dauran, aur doosra descending channel jo ke kal ke din ki price movement ko represent kar raha hai, jo ab tak sirf ek correction hi samjhi ja rahi hai.

Filhal, jab price ne sideways move kiya triangle ke andar, ab price triangle ko upar ki taraf break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar price is mein kaamyab hoti hai, toh hum ek upward wave dekhein ge jo resistance level 1.1158 tak ja sakti hai.







Selling Opportunity: Selling ka mauqa us waqt milega agar price triangle ke neeche aur 1.1116 ke level se neeche girti hai. Aise mein, hum weekly pivot level 1.1059 tak sell karne ka soch sakte hain.

Economic Front: Aaj ke din US Federal Reserve ke taraf se federal funds rate mein cut ki umeed hai, jo filhal 23 saal ki bulandi par hai (5.25%-5.50%). Yeh March 2020 ke baad pehli rate cut hogi. Cut ka size abhi tak confirm nahi hai, lekin 50 basis point cut par ziada guftagu ho rahi hai, halan ke Fed aam tor par 25 basis points ka cut karta hai. United States ka annual inflation rate paanchwein martaba slow hua hai, jo August mein 2.5% tak aa gaya, jo February 2021 ke baad se sabse kam hai, jab ke annual core inflation rate 3.2% par aaya, jo teen saal se zyada ka lowest hai. Core personal spending rate, jo Fed ka preferred inflation measure hai, woh July mein 2.6% par rahi. Iske ilawa, August mein unemployment rate 4.2% tak barh gaya aur is saal monthly payroll growth bhi slow hui hai.

EUR/USD ka Technical Analysis

Currency pair ne thora decline dekha jab yeh Wednesday ke European session mein 1.1146 ke resistance level ke upar momentum barqarar rakhne mein nakam raha. Aakhri updates ke mutabiq, pair 1.1131 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Is pullback ki wajah US Dollar (USD) ki apni gains ko barqarar rakhna hai, jo ke do hafton ke high ke qareeb hai, jabke US Dollar Index (DXY)—jo ke dollar ki value ko six major currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai—100.80 ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai.

Aage ki taraf dekhein toh market sentiment Eurozone aur United States ke dauran divide hoti nazar aati hai. Euro ab tak stable hai, jabke umeed hai ke Eurozone mein interest rates lambay arsay tak buland rahen ge. Wahan dusri taraf, Fed ke aggressive rate cuts ki possibility USD ke liye uncertainty paida karti hai. Traders upcoming economic indicators aur central bank ke bayanaat ko closely monitor karen ge jo market ke rujhan ko kisi bhi taraf le ja sakte hain.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Haal hi mein EUR/USD pair mein dip ke bawajood, Euro thora stable hai. Investors is baat par yakin karte hain ke Eurozone mein interest rates lambay arsay tak high rahen ge, zyadah tar wage inflation ke chalte. Is umeed ne European Central Bank (ECB) ke interest rate cuts ko lekar eik more cautious approach paida kiya hai. Haal hi ke economic data ne is sentiment ko zyada change nahi kiya, jo yeh batata hai ke ECB rate cuts ko araam aur soch samajh kar karega.

Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawale se aggressive rate-cutting strategy ki umeed barh rahi hai. Market participants ab September 18 ki meeting mein pehli double cut ke 50 basis points ke 30% chance de rahe hain, jabke baqi 70% ek single quarter-point cut ke favor mein hain. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 2024 ke liye total 100 basis points cuts price kar rahe hain.






Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Euro bulls ke liye aglay important targets mein ek recent high 1.1200 ka aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 ka hai. Neeche ki taraf, psychological support level 1.1100 kuch cushion provide kar sakta hai. Short-term price action yeh suggest karta hai ke 1.1100 ke neeche brief dip ke baad ek minor low form ho chuka hai. Ek resistance level aur minor bullish trend ka trigger 1.1188 par identify hota hai.

Technical Analysis:

August ke recent highs par ek bearish Two-Bar reversal pattern form hui hai. Yeh pattern aksar tab samnay aati hai jab ek long green-up week ke baad ek similar-length red-down week aata hai, jo ke trend reversal ka ishara hota hai. Is pattern ka 200-week Simple Moving Average ke level par form hona yeh batata hai ke ek potential downward movement develop ho sakti hai.

EUR/USD Market Outlook

Subha bakhair aur umeed hai ke aapka Wednesday profitable ho!

Kal German ZEW Economic Sentiment ne EUR/USD ke buyers ki madad nahi ki, is wajah se market 1.1125 zone ke aas-paas hi raha. Aaj, kuch high-impact news events market sentiment ko mutasir kareinge. Special focus sellers ka Federal Funds Rate par hai, jo ke aaj ka sabse aham element hai. Federal Funds Rate wo interest rate hai jisme banks ek doosre ko overnight qarz dete hain, aur yeh economy ke bohot se doosre interest rates ke liye benchmark ka kaam karta hai. Agar Federal Funds Rate barhta hai, toh iska matlab hota hai ke financial conditions tight ho rahi hain, kyunke borrowing costs consumers aur businesses ke liye barh jati hain. Iska nateeja economic activity mein slowdown aur asset prices par downward pressure ke taur par nikalta hai, jo sellers ke liye faida mand hota hai jo market ke decline par bet kar rahe hote hain.






Umeed hai ke EUR/USD market sellers ke haq mein rahega aur woh jaldi 1.1080 zone ko break kar sakte hain. Agar Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate ko barhata hai ya yeh signal deta hai ke mazeed rate hikes aane wali hain, toh sellers ke liye market movements se faida uthana asaan ho jayega. Zyada interest rates aam tor par stock aur bond prices ko neeche le jati hain, aur yeh commodities aur currencies jese doosre asset classes par bhi asar dalti hain. Yeh aise mahaul ko janam deti hai jahan sellers sirf apne nuqsan ko cover nahi karte, balki apne profit ratios ko bhi barha sakte hain. In market shifts ka faida utha kar, sellers apni position ko strategical taur par maximize kar sakte hain.

EUR/USD traders ke liye, FOMC Economic Projections aur Federal Funds Rate ka faisla bohot important hai, lekin Press Conference jo Fed Chair ki taraf se hogi, wo bhi market ke direction ko shape kar sakti hai. Is Press Conference mein, Fed Chair FOMC ke faislay ke peechay ka logic samjhayenge aur economy ke hawalay se mazeed insights denge.

Stay Blessed and Keep Calm!

Euro (EUR) ka US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein Analysis

Tuesday ke din Euro (EUR) ki recent upward momentum US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein ruk gayi, aur price 1.1100 level ke thoda upar settle hui. Traders Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Wednesday ke interest rate decision ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is hafte European economic calendar mein ziyada kuch nahi tha, isliye market ka focus zyada tar Fed ke anticipated rate cut par tha. August ke US retail sales data ne market expectations ko thora support diya, jo forecasted -0.2% contraction ke muqablay mein 0.1% growth ke sath aaye. July ke retail sales figures bhi upward revise hue aur 1.1% pe set kiye gaye. Lekin core retail sales, jo auto purchases ko exclude karti hain, sirf 0.1% barh payi, jabke umeed 0.2% ki thi.

Is hafte ka sabse aham event Wednesday ko hone wali Fed ki interest rate meeting hai. Investors saal ke aghaz se rate cut ki umeed kar rahe hain, jabke March se is demand mein zyada zor dekhne ko mila. CME ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market ab ek 50 basis point rate cut price kar raha hai, jo ke Fed ke aglay rate cut cycle ka aghaz karega. Halanki, ek 25 basis point cut ka bhi significant probability hai.






Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD pair ne Tuesday ke din resistance face ki, jabke long-term bulls abhi bhi cautious hain. August ke aakhir mein one-year highs se pullback ke baad, price action abhi bhi ek technical consolidation mein phansa hua hai. Last week ke 1.1000 level se bullish bounce ke bawajood, overall momentum abhi thanda lagta hai. Tuesday ko bullish open ne 1.1116 ke aas-paas ke supply zone ko touch kiya aur usse break karte hue 1.1129 par end hua, jo current bullish range ka midpoint hai.

A pullback ka intezar hai jo 1.1100 ya Point of Control (POC) 1.1088 tak aasakta hai, aur umeed hai ke yahan se fresh bounce dekhne ko milega, kyunke bulls is level ko defend karne ki koshish karenge. Agay ke potential targets 1.1150 aur 1.1166 ke supply zones mein hain, jo 80% aur 100% Fibonacci extension levels ke qareeb hain. Jab Fibonacci extension ka target mil jata hai, toh 1.1072 ko last relevant support level ke taur par verify kiya jayega. Current upside move ke liye, 1.1002 last valid support level hai.

ستمبر 18 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

آج، فیڈرل ریزرو سے اپنی شرح سود کو کم کرنے کی توقع ہے۔ مارکیٹوں نے مندرجہ ذیل توقعات کے ساتھ اس ایونٹ سے رابطہ کیا ہے: شرح میں 0.25% کمی کا 36% امکان اور 0.50% کٹوتی کا 64% امکان ہے۔ اس سے پہلے، ہم نے تفصیل سے بتایا کہ ہم صرف ایک چوتھائی پوائنٹ کی کٹوتی کی توقع کیوں کرتے ہیں۔ اب، ہم یورو کے 1.1010 پر مضبوط تکنیکی معاونت کی سطح تک پہنچنے کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں—یہ وہ علاقہ ہے جہاں 5 اگست کی بلندی سے ہدف کی سطح، گرین پرائس چینل کی ایمبیڈڈ لائن، اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی حمایت آپس میں ملتی ہے۔ اس سطح کو توڑنے سے قیمت 1.0724 ایریا کی طرف ایک درمیانی مدت کی کمی میں بھیجے گی۔



ہمیں یہ بھی یقین تھا کہ قیمت 1.1010/85 کی حد میں مستحکم ہو جائے گی، لیکن اس نے اس کی بجائے 1.1085-1.1150 رینج کا انتخاب کیا ہے۔ ان رینجز کے درمیان فرق یہ ہے کہ، موجودہ صورتحال میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن صفر کی سطح پر ہے، جب کہ اگر قیمت 1.1085 سے نیچے ہوتی، تو یہ اسے سپورٹ کرتی۔ یہ فرق، تکنیکی نقطہ نظر سے، فی الحال ترقی کے حق میں ہے۔ تاہم، مرکزی منظر نامہ معاملات کو پیچیدہ بناتا ہے، یعنی اگر قیمت توقع کے مطابق 1.1085 سے نیچے مستحکم ہو جاتی ہے، تو مثبت علاقے میں مارلن کا حالیہ اقدام غلط ثابت ہو گا، جیسا کہ قیمت 1.1085 سے اوپر جائے گی۔ اسی طرح کی تحریک 5-6 ستمبر کو ہوئی تھی۔ اگر فیڈ شرح کو 0.50% کم کرتا ہے، تو ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ قیمت 1.1186 سے اوپر ٹوٹ جائے گی اور پھر 1.1230 کو ہدف بنائیں گے۔

چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر اپنی حد کی نچلی حد کو آگے بڑھا رہا ہے۔ فی گھنٹہ کے وقت کے فریم کو چھوڑ کر، جہاں قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے آ گئی ہے، قیمت میں ممکنہ کمی کی یہ واحد علامت ہے۔ مارلن کی طرف سے منفی علاقے میں جانے سے قیمت پر دباؤ بڑھے گا اور اسے ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (1.1052) کی حمایت تک پہنچنے میں مدد ملے گی۔ 1.1085 لیول اب ایک انٹرمیڈیٹ لیول کے طور پر کام کرتا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Riding the Waves: EUR/USD

Humara jo focus hai, wo is waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke price action par hai. Shuru mein mujhe umeed thi ke price upar jayegi, aur khush qismati se, ye tab upar gayi jab mujhe lag raha tha ke ye move hoga. Jitna zyada price upar jati hai, utna zyada chance hai ke ye neeche aaye, na sirf short term mein, balke aaj ke liye ek critical move ke taur par. Ye sirf ek umeed hai, aur is ka pata hume tab chalega jab Fed ka announcement hoga. Fed chairman kya faisla karega, yeh abhi wazeh nahi hai — shayad unko bhi abhi tak pata na ho. Main ne Fed ke developments ke baad bearish stance lena pasand kiya. Pound ke strong rally ke bawajood, maine aaj buying se parheiz kiya kyun ke main poori tarah situation samajh nahi paaya, ya ye ke wo itni bulandiyon tak kyun pahunch gaya. Main trading zyada tar statistics ke basis par karta hoon. Pound ab bhi U.S. stock performance ko follow kar raha hai, jab ke S&P 500 global highs ke qareeb hai. Jaise ke umeed thi, EUR/USD abhi accumulation mode mein hai, aur hum aage ki khabron ka intezaar kar rahe hain.



Mujhe abhi tak EUR/USD chart par koi clear downward trend nazar nahi aa raha, is liye main wait kar raha hoon. Filhaal, mujhe further growth ki umeed nahi hai, aur main price correction ka intezaar kar raha hoon taake long positions ek behtar entry point par li ja sakein. Ideally, main target kar raha hoon ke price range 1.0761–1.0726 ke qareeb ho jaye taake main long ja sakoon. Hume abhi intezaar karna padega, kyun ke market abhi tak koi urgency show nahi kar raha. Main is wait-and-see approach ko support karta hoon, halan ke Fed ka faisla sab kuch badal sakta hai. Ye dobara se upar jana shuru ho gaya hai, aur 1.1148 tak pahunch gaya hai. Ye upward move agle high 1.1203 tak continue kar sakta hai. Agar ye level break kar gaya, to price pivot point 1.1231 tak barh sakta hai. Magar agar 1.1148 level hold karta hai, to hum pullback dekh sakte hain, jo ke M15 time-frame par bearish sentiment ko trigger kar sakta hai. Agar price 1.1121 se neeche break karti hai, to ye bearish zone ke andar 1.1091 aur H1 pivot point 1.1079 ke qareeb push karega, jahan se rebound ka potential ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka

Main abhi EUR/USD currency pair ka real-time price analysis kar raha hoon. 4-hour chart ke mutabiq, bulls phir se upward trend ko resume karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Price abhi 1/1 angle ke upar hai aur 25% support level, jo 1.1068 pe hai, ke thoda upar position mein hai, jo overall bullish trend ko dikhata hai aur bear market kamzor lag rahi hai. Price abhi 1.1151 ke high se neeche hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bulls jald hi is resistance ko todne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is liye, thodi consolidation ke baad bullish movement expect ki ja sakti hai. Kal sellers nazar aaye the, lekin unka impact pehle se kam tha, jis ki wajah se close utna favourable nahi tha. Buyers abhi offload kar rahe hain pehle ke mukable, lekin volume kam hai, is liye doubt hai ke bulls bears ko overpower kar sakein. Hourly chart pe bearish movement ka silsila jari hai, jo downward waves se represent hota hai. Ek price reversal ho sakta hai, jo ke 1.1048–1.1007 zone ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.



EUR/USD scenario ko dekhte hue, price abhi naye formed resistance 1.1139 ke neeche trade kar rahi hai. Yeh downward trend ke continuation ka signal deta hai. Is resistance ka retest ho chuka hai, jo selling ka ek mauka deta hai. Trading algorithm ke mutabiq, stop loss ko resistance range ke upar rakha gaya hai taake kisi bhi false breakout ka account kiya ja sake. Yeh strategy additional protection deti hai aur risk exposure ko kam karti hai. Pehla target support level 1.1112 pe hai, jahan stop loss ko even rakha jayega taake position ko secure kiya ja sake. 1.1089 pe position ka kuch hissa profit ke liye close kiya jayega, aur primary target critical support 1.1037 pe hai. Profit-to-risk ratio favourable hai. Price abhi daily chart pe ek familiar range mein move kar rahi hai. Do din pehle, buyers ne seller ke daily candle ko challenge karne mein significant effort dala tha.

EUR/USD Price Patterns

Humaari guftagu iss waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par ho rahi hai. Ahem zone 1.10299 aur 1.10599 ke beech mein kafi sakht muqaabla ho raha hai, jo euro ke liye intehai zaroori hai. Lagta hai ke is zone ka thoda sa break ho gaya hai, lekin market mein false breakouts aam hain, aur is liye inhe serious nahi lena chahiye. Agar ek decisive break hoti hai aur price is zone ke neeche mazid solidify hoti hai, toh main selling par focus karoon ga. Lekin, mera focus zyada buying par hai, aur meri nazar mein bade targets hain. Pehla target 1.11799 level ke kareeb hai, aur asal maqsood yeh hai ke isay tod kar 1.1399 tak pohoncha jaye. Lekin neeche jaane wala scenario bhi aaj unfold ho sakta hai, is liye main daily candle ki consolidation ka intezaar kar raha hoon. Technically, hum abhi tak monthly resistance zone se break out nahi kar sake, na kal aur na aaj. Hum sirf is zone ke lower boundary ko pierce kar sake hain, lekin abhi tak technical retracement ka aghaz nahi hua. Hum ab bhi movement ka intezaar karte rahenge.

Naturally, market stagnant nahi rahegi, khaaskar jab U.S. interest rate mein tabdeeli aane wali hai. Har bara khabar market ko asar karegi. Pehle hum European events par reaction dekhenge, aur phir week ke aakhri hisse mein U.S. side ka action hoga. Week ke aakhri din kuch action bharay honge. EUR/USD phir se meri expectations par pura nahi utra, halaan ke aaj ki daily candle halka bearish indication ke sath close ho sakti hai. Lekin, pair ke liye kuch nahi badla, kyun ke downward trend ab bhi jaari hai. Ghair mutawaqqa taur par hum next target 1.1024 ke qareeb pohonch gaye, lekin frustration yeh hai ke ek proper retracement nahi ho saka. Ab tak yeh confirm nahi ho saka ke yeh false breakout tha, kyun ke pair 1.1024 ke neeche solidify nahi ho saka. Phir bhi, main nahi samajhta ke aaj koi bara change aayega, lekin kal U.S. inflation data ke sath volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Haalaat mushkil hain, lekin agar yeh breakout of 1.1024 false sabit hota hai, toh main buying par ghoor karoon ga.
image widget

kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte