یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

EUR/USD currency pair ne pichle hafte mein aham growth dekhi, jo meri analysis mein upside movement ko ahem bana deti hai. Overall trend bullish raha, aur price haftay bhar barhti rahi, jo pair ke liye positive outlook ko barhawa deti hai. Halankeh ek mukhtasir pullback aaya jo 1.08820 ke support level ko test kiya, lekin price is critical threshold ke neeche close nahi hui. Is support level ka is waqt ka resistance meri bullish bias ko aur bhi mazbooti di.
Shuruati momentum Eurozone se favourable economic indicators aur relatively weaker U.S. dollar ke combination ke zariye aaya. Eurozone mein economic sentiment ke behtari, better-than-expected macroeconomic data, aur European Central Bank (ECB) ki zyada hawkish stance ne Euro ki strength ko contribute kiya. Dusri taraf, U.S. dollar ko mixed economic data aur Federal Reserve ki cautious approach ka samna karna pada, jis se ECB aur Fed ke darmiyan monetary policy expectations mein divergence aayi.

Jab price 1.08820 ke support level ke qareeb aayi, ek mukhtasir uncertainty ka waqt aaya, jahan market participants ne recent gains ki sustainability ko assess kiya. Lekin, support level ne mazbooti se pakra, jo deeper correction ko rokta hai aur upward trend ko continue karne ke liye raasta kholta hai. Is support ke neeche close na hona ek key technical signal tha jo bullish trend ki strength ko confirm karta hai.

Aage dekhte hue, meri bias ab bhi upside ki taraf hai, jo kai factors se driven hai. Pehli baat, technical indicators jaise moving averages aur trendlines bullish momentum ko signal de rahe hain. Iske ilawa, broader economic context yeh suggest karta hai ke Euro U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein apni strength bana sakta hai, khaaskar agar ECB apni tighter monetary policy signal karta hai jabke Fed cautious approach rakhta hai.

Lekin, economic conditions ya central bank policies mein koi bhi tabdeeli ko nazarandaz nahi karna chahiye jo current trend ko badal sakti hai. Key levels jo watch karna zaroori hai wo 1.08820 ka support hai, jo ab bhi critical line hai, aur koi bhi potential resistance 1.1000 level ke aas-paas, jahan profit-taking ya increased selling pressure dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Overall, EUR/USD pair ab bhi strength dikhata hai, aur meri bias nazar andaz karte hue, near term mein further upside movement ke liye hai.

Euro ki qeemat apni decline ko continue karte hue $1.0825 ke support level tak pohanchi hai, jo ke chaar maheenon ke sabse highest level $1.094 se door ho gayi hai, jo ke 17 July ko touch kiya tha, jab euro zone, Germany aur France ke weak PMI data release hue the. In reports ke baad yeh umeed barh gayi ke European Central Bank iss saal do aur dafa interest rates cut karega.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Flash Eurozone PMIs ne July mein private sector activity mein unexpected slump ki taraf ishara kiya, jo ke manufacturing mein zyada contraction aur services mein slowdown ki wajah se hua. Germany aur France broader region mein underperform karte rahe. Iske nateejay mein, traders ne European Central Bank ke do aur interest rate cuts ki bets ko 80% se badhakar 90% tak kar diya hai PMI data ke baad.

Europe mein, German Treasuries aur French oats yields ke darmiyan yield gap barhkar 71.70 basis points tak pohanch gaya, jo ke France mein political tensions ki wajah se hua. Far-left National Front party ke taraf se pension reform ko reverse karne ka proposal, jo President Macron ne approve kiya tha, far-right National Front party ki support ke sath, ne fiscal spending aur France ke debt par risk premium ke hawalay se concerns ko barha diya hai. President Macron ne kaha hai ke unki government Olympics ke dauran mid-August tak barqarar rahegi, aur left-wing coalition ke efforts ko reject karte hue naye prime minister ko appoint karne se inkaar kar diya hai.

Daily chart par Euro ke price ke performance ke mutabiq, EUR/USD currency pair abhi bhi mazbooti se important psychological support level 1.0800 ke tor par inclined hai, aur agar yeh break hota hai, to bears ko aur zyada momentum milega ke woh price ko neeche le jayein. Aur agle most important support levels 1.0745 aur 1.0660 par honge, respectively. Dusri taraf, isi time period ke dauran, aur jaisa ke maine pehle bhi mention kiya, general trend mein upar ki taraf koi strong aur important shift tab tak nahi aayegi jab tak yeh wapas psychological resistance 1.1000 ke level tak na pohanche. Aaj Euro Dollar ki qeemat European Central Bank ke Governor Lagarde ke statements aur German IFO reading ke announcement, aur phir important American economic data, jo GDP growth reading, weekly unemployed claims, aur durable goods orders ke hawalay se hai, se affect hogi.

Currency pair EURUSD - H4 period chart. Is week mein market relatively quiet raha hai, price action consolidation mein hai. Lekin last week bohot productive raha. Koi major unexpected movements nahin hue, lekin kuch good trading opportunities aaye jo nicely play out hue. Typically, is pair par har week mein do ya teen good opportunities aati hain. Sab kuch key horizontal level 1.0942 ke around ghoomta hai. First opportunity aayi jab level ko upside mein break kiya gaya, phir hourly chart par pullback aaya, clear bounce upside mein diya. Phir market ne level ko downside mein break kiya, aur short mein enter karne ka opportunity diya, jo profitable move downside mein hua. Third opportunity aayi jab price ne 1.0942 level ke neeche stuck ho gaya, phir breakout hua aur resistance level ban gaya uptrend ke edge par, selling zone mein. Jaise expected, market wahan se drop hua. Phir correction upside mein aayi, aur price range mein stuck ho gaya week ke end tak. Observation se pata chalta hai ki 80-90 percent time market ranging mein rehta hai, occasional opportunities short-term trades ke liye small profits 20-30 pips capture karne ke liye. Mere khayal mein jo log big moves ke liye wait karte hain wo masochism mein engage hain; market jo offer karta hai wo lena behtar hai, jo typically har week mein do ya teen trading opportunities hoti hain. Currently, market middle mein stuck hai, dono directions mein move karne ke equal chances hain. Buyers ke upper hand hai ascending wave structure ke wajah se four-hour aur daily charts par. Additionally, MACD indicator do higher timeframes par overbought zone mein hai, buyers ke favor mein. Lekin sellers ke bhi arguments hain. Daily MACD par bearish divergence ki presence significant factor hai sellers ke liye. Today ke liye koi major economic news events

Euro ne Thursday ke trading session ke early hours mein significant swings dekhe, jo ki market ki direction ke liye struggle ko reflect karta hai. Currency 1.11 level ki taraf pull back karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh is level se neeche break karta hai, toh hum 1.10 mark ki taraf aur decline dekh sakte hain. Overall, market ek crossroads par hai, yeh gauge karne ki koshish kar raha hai ki kya yeh enough momentum hai apne upward trajectory ko continue karne ke liye. Agar euro 1.1175 level se upar break karta hai, toh yeh 1.1250 ki taraf rally ke liye way pave kar sakta hai. Is movement ka zyada hissa Federal Reserve ki actions par depend karta hai, especially potential rate cuts ke terms mein. While Fed September mein rate cuts karne ki widely expect ki ja rahi hai, extent of its aggressiveness uncertain hai. Market may not have fully priced in aggressive rate cut ki possibility, jo ki global economy ke concerns ko signal kar sakta hai. Aisi scenarios mein, US dollar typically benefits karta hai kyunki investors often US Treasury bond markets ki safety ko seek karte hain economic uncertainty ke during. Technical point of view se, yeh important hai ki note ki Euro abhi bhi overbought state mein hai Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke according. Additionally, RSI aur price action ke beech some divergence hai, jo ki pullback ke horizon par indicate kar sakta hai. Yeh divergence often ek warning sign hota hai ki current trend losing steam hai. Short mein, euro ne resilience dikhai hai, lekin uski future direction technical factors aur Federal Reserve decisions par depend karegi. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels aur any signs of divergence ko close eye se dekhna chahiye potential market volatility ko navigate karne ke liye
Europe aur China ke beech tensions escalate ho rahe hain, khaskar China ke recent stance ke baad European dairy products par EU-China trade conflict mein. Yeh tension already struggling European economy ko aur strain kar sakta hai. Kuch EU officials keh rahe hain ki migrants ki influx economic growth ko stimulate kar sakti hai, lekin yeh expectation Europe ki current situation mein optimistic lag raha hai.

Agar EUR/USD pair apne upward trend ko continue karta hai, toh bullish momentum ko follow karna wise ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar bearish signal chart par emerge hota hai, trading volumes ke confirmed hone par, sell karne ka opportunity ho sakta hai. Koi clear signals nahi hain ki price continue rise karega ya reverse downward, isliye market se bahar rehna best ho sakta hai jab tak reliable signal na appear ho.
Current chart patterns ke according, agar EUR/USD pair downward shift hota hai, toh yeh accumulation area 1.0952 ke around move kar sakta hai


Sirf very strong US statistics dollar ko Jerome Powell ke speech se pehle position regain karne mein madad karega, lekin is scenario ko bhi question kiya ja sakta hai, kyunki euro ko sell karne ke liye real reasons nahi hain. Agar euro rise karne ki koshish karta hai, main sellers ko 1.1157 resistance level par act karne ki ummeed karta hoon, jo hum first half of the day mein break nahi kar paaye. False breakout ki formation wahan, similar to earlier discussion, short positions open karne ka reason hoga, targeting decline toward 1.1129 support level.
Breakout aur consolidation is range se neeche, along with retest from bottom up, another selling opportunity provide karega, targeting 1.1102 area, jahan main more active buyer interest ki ummeed karta hoon. Ultimate target 1.1073 area hoga, jahan main profits lock karunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein rise karti hai, extending trend, aur bears 1.1157 par show nahi karte (jo ki zyada likely hai), buyers ko further significant growth ki chance milegi. Is case mein, main selling ko postpone karunga next resistance 1.1188 test hone tak. Main wahan bhi sell karunga lekin only failed consolidation ke baad. Main 1.1226 se rebound par short positions open karunga, targeting downward correction 30-35 points

Eurusd ne apni increase ko continue karne ke baad, finally Thursday ko phir se decline ka saamna kiya. Eurusd ne 1.1172 area ko touch karne ke baad fall shuru kiya, jo supply formation ka area tha. Kyunki candle supply area ko penetrate nahi kar saka, shayad woh eurusd ko increase continue karne se rok diya. Currently, eurusd position khud 1.1116 ke price par trade ki ja rahi hai. Agar calculate kiya jaye, to eurusd ne around 65 pips ka decline kiya hai. Currently, candle position demand area mein 1.1101 ke price par stuck hai. Agar h1 timeframe se analyze kiya jaye, to eurusd apni decline ko aur deeper le jayega agar h1 support 1.1116 ke price par penetrate hota hai. Problem yeh hai ki, abhi tak woh area break nahi hua hai. Jab tak support penetrate nahi ho sakta, woh eurusd ko phir se rise karne ka chance hai. Meri opinion mein, kal ki decline sirf correction thi. Correction ke baad, eurusd apni increase continue karega. Problem yeh hai ki, upper area mein abhi bhi supply hai jo touch nahi hui hai, jo 1.1255 ke price par located hai. Eurusd ke liye next target woh area hai. Agar ichimoku indicator ki madad se analyze kiya jaye, to eurusd movement down ke baad candle position jo previously line ke upar tha, abhi tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke neeche hai. Yeh intersection abhi bhi fresh hai, jo eurusd ko aur deeper le jayega. Lekin current obstacle yeh hai ki candle demand area 1.1116 ke price par penetrate nahi kar saka hai. Agar woh area pass kar gaya hai, to main yakin hoon ki decline bahut aasan hoga. Meanwhile, stochastic indicator show kar raha hai ki eurusd already oversold condition mein hai. Woh hua eurusd ne kal fairly large decline ka saamna kiya, jisne uski line level 20 par reach ki. Line ki direction currently bhi upwards hai, jo kahta hai ki stochastic indicator eurusd ko rise karne ke liye support kar raha hai. Toh aaj ki analysis ka conclusion yeh hai ki eurusd currency pair ko abhi bhi rise karne ka chance hai, ichimoku indicator ke lines intersect hone ke baad bhi. Main increase predict kar raha hoon kyunki candle demand area 1.1101 ke price par penetrate nahi kar saka hai. Isliye, demand area break nahi hui hai, main abhi bhi suggest kar raha hoon ki aap buy positions kholein. Aap take profit target ko resistance 1.1167 ke price par place kar sakte hain, aur stop loss ko support 1.1101 ke price par place kar sakte hain

ka ishara hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold level 30 ke neeche hover kar raha hai, jo upward correction ka potential suggest karta hai. AUD/USD pair ko immediate support descending channel ke lower boundary ke around reverse support level 0.6470 par mil sakta hai Dusri taraf, resistance pehli baar channel ke upper boundary ke around 0.6520 par encounter hota hai, followed by nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6544. Agla significant resistance 0.6575 par hai, jahan "reverse support turned resistance" hai. Is level ke upar breakout AUD/USD pair ko six-month high 0.6798 tak push kar sakta hai. Main buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Sab ko profitable trades ki dua NZD/USD ke liye Current Market Situation
Chaliye D1 timeframe par NZD/USD currency pair discuss karte hain. Ye last month ke aath tareekh se downward trend mein hai, jo poora mahina continue raha steady decline ke sath. Ye downtrend doosre major pairs se zyada intense raha hai. Wave structure downward move kar raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sell zone mein hai, apni signal line ke neeche. Third wave complete ho chuki hai, aur agar first wave par Fibonacci retracement apply karein, to hum dekhte hain ke minimum downside targets 161.8 aur 200 levels par reach ho chuke hain
Price ascending support line ko hit karta hai jo higher waves ke lows se draw hui hai, break through karte hue but support zone ke near horizontal level 0.5862 ko penetrate karne mein fail. Is se position closing hui sellers se aur new purchases hui, jise fourth wave mein slight rebound aya. Samajhne ki baat ye hai ke mahine ka end abhi abhi hua, monthly results lock karne ka waqt tha, jo price pullback ko lead karta hai. Technical reasons ke liye, four-hour chart par MACD par bullish divergence dikh raha hai. Ab, fifth wave mein decline ka continuation expected hai, jo significant minimum level 0.5862 ko update karega
Maine ye move last Friday ko expect kiya tha, lekin US news ki wajah se nahi hua. Non-farm payroll data forecast se bohot bura tha, US unemployment rate 0.2 points se barh gaya. Resultantly, price ne rally karne ki koshish ki but GBP aur EUR ke tarah surge nahi kar paya. Ye sellers ki strength indicate karta hai. Main ab bhi downward scenario ko likely dekhta hoo
Near-Term Strategy for NZD/US
NZD/USD pair ko H1 timeframe par dekhte hain, price upward trend mein hai kyunke 133-period moving average ke upar hai, jo trend ko confirm karta hai. Magar shorter timeframe par, price 133-period moving average ke neeche close ho raha hai, jo possible correction indicate karta hai. Main expect karta hoon ke price 0.5965 level ke upar consolidate karega pehle is pair ko buy consider karne se pehle. Warna, agar price 0.5910 ke neeche girti hai, to ye sell ka signal hoga. Filhal priority upward trend par buying par hai

Aaj ke trading session ke liye EUR/USD currency pair ke halat kuch is tarah hain:
4-hour market analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD pair mein abhi bhi buyers ka dominance hai aur bullish trend dekhne ko mil raha hai. Yeh is baat se zahir hota hai ke price Bollinger Bands ke middle bands ke upar trade ho rahi hai, EMA50 ke upar hai aur Stochastic Oscillator level 50 ke upar hai. Wednesday ke bullish candlestick momentum ke saath, buyers ki strength barhne ki umeed hai aur price 1.1050 ke resistance level ko test kar sakti hai. Agar yeh resistance level break ho gaya, to price aur upar ja sakti hai aur agle resistance level ko test kar sakti hai.

**Aaj ka trading plan:**

Upar di gayi basic analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD currency pair ke liye buy option ko consider karna chahiye. Technical analysis ke ilawa, aaj ke economic news ko bhi dekhna zaroori hai, kyunki yeh trading activities mein madadgar hota hai aur loss ka risk kam kar sakta hai, saath hi optimal profits generate karne mein bhi madad karta hai. Market mein enter karne se pehle price ka nearest support level test karne ka intezar karna behtar hoga, taake ek ideal entry point mil sake. Pin bar candlestick pattern aur Bullish engulfing candlestick pattern ko EUR/USD price ke strengthening ke confirmation ke liye use kiya ja sakta hai.

Sell market ke liye plan yeh hai ke resistance level 1.1000 par enter karein, stop loss ko 1;1 ke ratio par set karein aur profit target ko entry price se 100 points set karein, ya market conditions ke mutabiq adjust kar sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD currency pair ke technical analysis ke mutabiq, bullish trend ke madde nazar buy trade option ko consider karna behtar hai, khas taur par jab nearest resistance level achieve ho.Aaj ke trading session ke liye EUR/USD currency pair ke halat kuch is tarah hain:

4-hour market analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD pair mein abhi bhi buyers ka dominance hai aur bullish trend dekhne ko mil raha hai. Yeh is baat se zahir hota hai ke price Bollinger Bands ke middle bands ke upar trade ho rahi hai, EMA50 ke upar hai aur Stochastic Oscillator level 50 ke upar hai. Wednesday ke bullish candlestick momentum ke saath, buyers ki strength barhne ki umeed hai aur price 1.1050 ke resistance level ko test kar sakti hai. Agar yeh resistance level break ho gaya, to price aur upar ja sakti hai aur agle resistance level ko test kar sakti hai.

**Aaj ka trading plan:**

Upar di gayi basic analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD currency pair ke liye buy option ko consider karna chahiye. Technical analysis ke ilawa, aaj ke economic news ko bhi dekhna zaroori hai, kyunki yeh trading activities mein madadgar hota hai aur loss ka risk kam kar sakta hai, saath hi optimal profits generate karne mein bhi madad karta hai. Market mein enter karne se pehle price ka nearest support level test karne ka intezar karna behtar hoga, taake ek ideal entry point mil sake. Pin bar candlestick pattern aur Bullish engulfing candlestick pattern ko EUR/USD price ke strengthening ke confirmation ke liye use kiya ja sakta hai.

Sell market ke liye plan yeh hai ke resistance level 1.1000 par enter karein, stop loss ko 1;1 ke ratio par set karein aur profit target ko entry price se 100 points set karein, ya market conditions ke mutabiq adjust kar sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD currency pair ke technical analysis ke mutabiq, bullish trend ke madde nazar buy trade option ko consider karna behtar hai, khas taur par jab nearest resistance level achieve ho.

Euro ne Thursday ke trading session ke early hours mein significant swings dekhe, jo ki market ki direction ke liye struggle ko reflect karta hai. Currency 1.11 level ki taraf pull back karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh is level se neeche break karta hai, toh hum 1.10 mark ki taraf aur decline dekh sakte hain. Overall, market ek crossroads par hai, yeh gauge karne ki koshish kar raha hai ki kya yeh enough momentum hai apne upward trajectory ko continue karne ke liye. Agar euro 1.1175 level se upar break karta hai, toh yeh 1.1250 ki taraf rally ke liye way pave kar sakta hai. Is movement ka zyada hissa Federal Reserve ki actions par depend karta hai, especially potential rate cuts ke terms mein. While Fed September mein rate cuts karne ki widely expect ki ja rahi hai, extent of its aggressiveness uncertain hai. Market may not have fully priced in aggressive rate cut ki possibility, jo ki global economy ke concerns ko signal kar sakta hai. Aisi scenarios mein, US dollar typically benefits karta hai kyunki investors often US Treasury bond markets ki safety ko seek karte hain economic uncertainty ke during. Technical point of view se, yeh important hai ki note ki Euro abhi bhi overbought state mein hai Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke according. Additionally, RSI aur price action ke beech some divergence hai, jo ki pullback ke horizon par indicate kar sakta hai. Yeh divergence often ek warning sign hota hai ki current trend losing steam hai. Short mein, euro ne resilience dikhai hai, lekin uski future direction technical factors aur Federal Reserve decisions par depend karegi. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels aur any signs of divergence ko close eye se dekhna chahiye potential market volatility ko navigate karne ke liye
Europe aur China ke beech tensions escalate ho rahe hain, khaskar China ke recent stance ke baad European dairy products par EU-China trade conflict mein. Yeh tension already struggling European economy ko aur strain kar sakta hai. Kuch EU officials keh rahe hain ki migrants ki influx economic growth ko stimulate kar sakti hai, lekin yeh expectation Europe ki current situation mein optimistic lag raha hai.

Agar EUR/USD pair apne upward trend ko continue karta hai, toh bullish momentum ko follow karna wise ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar bearish signal chart par emerge hota hai, trading volumes ke confirmed hone par, sell karne ka opportunity ho sakta hai. Koi clear signals nahi hain ki price continue rise karega ya reverse downward, isliye market se bahar rehna best ho sakta hai jab tak reliable signal na appear ho.
Current chart patterns ke according, agar EUR/USD pair downward shift hota hai, toh yeh accumulation area 1.0952 ke around move kar sakta hai
Sirf very strong US statistics dollar ko Jerome Powell ke speech se pehle position regain karne mein madad karega, lekin is scenario ko bhi question kiya ja sakta hai, kyunki euro ko sell karne ke liye real reasons nahi hain. Agar euro rise karne ki koshish karta hai, main sellers ko 1.1157 resistance level par act karne ki ummeed karta hoon, jo hum first half of the day mein break nahi kar paaye. False breakout ki formation wahan, similar to earlier discussion, short positions open karne ka reason hoga, targeting decline toward 1.1129 support level.
Breakout aur consolidation is range se neeche, along with retest from bottom up, another selling opportunity provide karega, targeting 1.1102 area, jahan main more active buyer interest ki ummeed karta hoon. Ultimate target 1.1073 area hoga, jahan main profits lock karunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein rise karti hai, extending trend, aur bears 1.1157 par show nahi karte (jo ki zyada likely hai), buyers ko further significant growth ki chance milegi. Is case mein, main selling ko postpone karunga next resistance 1.1188 test hone tak. Main wahan bhi sell karunga lekin only failed consolidation ke baad. Main 1.1226 se rebound par short positions open karunga, targeting downward correction 30-35 points

EUR/USD

Chaliye EUR/USD currency pair ke current price behavior analysis par baat karte hain. Abhi EUR/USD price chart ye suggest kar raha hai ke agar price niche jati hai, toh selling ek achi option ho sakti hai. Lekin agar price upar jati hai, toh buy position bhi worth considering ho sakti hai. Har kisi ki apni apni soch hoti hai, toh alag nazariye rakhne mein koi harj nahi hai. Humne dekha hai ke accumulation level 1.0952 par ek clear upward rebound hua, aur ab is rebound ke baad ek bullish signal ubhar raha hai. Jo critical price level dekhne layak hai woh hai 1.1034, jo ke protected zone ki lower boundary ko mark karta hai. Agar price market khulne ke baad 1.1034 tak pohanchti hai aur iss level se ek bearish signal, jo ke volumes se support karta ho, nazar aata hai, toh EUR/USD pair ki price accumulation zone 1.0952 ko retest karne ke liye wapas aa sakti hai.





Is hafte ke liye, EUR/USD ne psychological level 1.0999 ke upar close kiya. Waqai, "Shooting Star" pattern ne aap ke target levels ko reach kiya, lekin price ne 9th figure ke beech se rebound karke upar ki taraf move kiya. Positive US dollar data bhi euro ke value mein decline nahi laa saka. Euro ki recent depreciation 1.0948 tak shayad kuch logon ke liye fayda mand hui ho, lekin badqismati se mujhe iska faida nahi mila. Imandari se, main kam se kam 1.0749 ki umeed kar raha tha (mera initial target 1.0859 par set tha). Main agle hafte bearish trend-based activity ke possibility ke baare mein cautiously reassured hoon. Bearish sentiment ke mazboot hone ki umeed hai, jisse market control mein tabdili aayegi. Agla hafta kafi volatile ho sakta hai kyun ke sabhi major pairs ne apni range shift kar li hai.

In Friday's US Session

Jumay ke din US session mein, currency pair 1.1212 ke upar chali gayi, jisko DXY ke girawat ne support kiya. Inflation data ne dikhaya ke underlying inflation mein 2.6% ka saal dar saal izafa hua, jo ke mutawaqqa 2.5% se zyada tha, aur mahana inflation rate bhi pehle ke 0.1% se barh kar 0.2% ho gayi, jo umed se tez rahi.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

US inflation data par market ka reaction mix tha, jahan EUR/USD familiar ranges mein idhar-udhar hota raha, jabke sarmaya daar is data ke asraat ko samajhne ki koshish kar rahe the. Yakeeni taur par, September mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ki janib se rate cut ki umedein abhi bhi buland hain, magar gair mutawaqqa US data ne market ke andazon ko pareshan kar rakha hai. Euro traders ab agle hafte ke pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) update ka intezar kar rahe hain aur aane wale Fed ke rate faislon par nazar rakhe hue hain.

European Central Bank (ECB) se is saal do mazeed interest rate cuts ki tawaqo hai. Halaat ye hain ke abhi ke price pressures qaim rahenge, aur ECB ke target levels par wapsi ki umeed 2025 tak ki ja rahi hai. Kuch ECB officials ke nazar mein, in rate cuts ke liye market ki tawaqoat abhi ki economic conditions ke mutabiq hain.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jumay ko, pair ne 1.1104 ke aham support level ke upar apni position ko qaim rakha, lekin din ke range ke andar trade nahi kiya. Currency pair 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke 1.1041 ke kareeb hai, ke neeche trade kar raha hai. EUR/USD apne peak se trough tak 1.3% girawat dekh chuka hai jabke yeh long-term averages ki taraf wapas aane ki koshish kar raha hai. Buyers ko mushkil ho rahi hai momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein, jabke intraday price action 20-day EMA ke saath jooje rahi hai, jo ke 1.1005 par mojood hai.




Technical Indicators:

Daily chart par technical indicators, jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), strong bullish divergences dikhate hain. Yeh signals is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke agar EUR/USD 1.1200 mark se upar jata hai, toh ek potential bullish breakout ho sakta hai. Agar pair 1.1211 ke upar decisively break karta hai, toh agli hafte ke dauran currency pair 1.1265 region ki taraf push ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis, Forecast

H4 timeframe ke mapping ke mutabiq jo maine banayi hai, yeh dekha jaa sakta hai ke buyers ne successfully defense level 1.1130 ko breach kar liya hai. Agar aap market mein jo kuch ho raha hai us par nazar daalein, toh kam az kam EUR/USD currency pair ke liye dobara upar jaane ka chance maujood hai. Is hafta market abhi bhi ek bullish trend dikhata nazar aa raha hai jo ke kafi wide range mein move kar raha hai. Kul mila kar, market ka movement Jumay ki raat tak bullish trend ki taraf hi move karta dikhayi de raha hai, halaan ke pichlay hafte ke aaghaz mein sellers ki taraf se pressure ki koshish ki gayi thi jis se price 1.1100 tak gir gayi thi. Hum bas ab is upward movement ke dobara continue hone ka intezar kar rahe hain jab tak ke yeh level 1.1220 ko nahi chhoo leta. Agar price movement us level ko breach karne mein kamyaab hoti hai, toh trend aglay chand dino ke liye mazeed barh sakta hai.




MACD indicator ke histogram bar zero level ke upar barh gayi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke market abhi bhi buyers ke qabze mein hai. Hum pichlay chand hafton ki trading sessions mein dekh sakte hain ke price movement abhi bhi upar jaane mein kamyaab ho rahi hai. Mere khayal mein, market ke latest trend ke mutabiq abhi bhi bullish potential maujood hai. Upar diye gaye graph se yeh dekha jaa sakta hai ke candlestick ki position abhi bhi 1.1150 ke price level ke upar aram se play kar rahi hai, jo mere nazar mein is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke trend dobara barhane ke chances hain. Be-shak sellers ki taraf se pressure hai, lekin yeh sirf ek corrective movement hai, kyun ke uske baad trend ka reversal bullish direction ki taraf hua hai, aur wo bhi ek significant range ke saath. Agle hafte ke liye bhi yeh andaaza lagaya ja raha hai ke bullish trend ka silsila jari rahega.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.





FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicator overbought zone mein hai, corrective downturn ki probability zyada hai.

Bulls euro mein round-level resistance ko retake karne ki koshish kar rahe hain 1.1200 par, clear break ke baad December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se. Round-level number 1.1100 significant support zone ko serve karega downside par

EUR/USD currency pair ke liye D1 chart period par wave structure ek uptrend form kar raha hai. MACD indicator overbought zone mein rising hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai. Pichlay trading week mein bears ke liye koi chances nahi the, kyunki intraday hui minimal corrections bhi mushkil hui. Prices ek jack ki tarah ooper chadh rahi thi, jo ek potential reversal downwards ka indication de rahi thi. Wednesday ka small candlestick, jo ek doji ke mutabiq lag raha tha, ne ek potential decrease signal diya, aur agle din decline continue karne ki koshish hui, lekin lagta hai ke yeh khatam nahi hui. Poore din ke liye slight decrease ke sath price ne stand still kiya, aur bohot saare sellers ne accumulate kiya, jo itni heights se ek descending correction ki umeed kar rahe the. Lekin sab kuch change ho gaya jab Friday ko US se important news aayi. US Federal Reserve ke head, Jerome Powell ka speech aur saath hi US mein new homes ki sales ki news aayi, jis ki wajah se price sharply aur strongly surge hui. Bohot se accounts ne losses face kiya, kyunki kaafi log is surprise move mein stop losses ke sath trap ho gaye. Sirf euro hi US dollar ke against strengthen nahi hua, balki US dollar market mein significant weak hua.

Agar first wave ke bottom se Fibonacci extension apply kiya jaye, to yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke 161.8% ka target achieve ho chuka hai, aur shayad yeh 200% level tak bhi pohnch jaye. Minimum target achieve hone ke baad, aur price ne 2023 ke end ke significant maximum ko break kar diya hai, yeh ek potential selling zone ho sakta hai. CCI indicator overbought zone mein bend kar raha hai aur exit ke liye tayar hai. Reversal level form hone ki umeed ki ja sakti hai growth ke edge par, choti timeframe par, jaise ke H1 par. Overall, pichlay hafton mein US dollar bohot zyada weaken hua hai, aur jaldi hi market mein ek correction expected hai, jabke doosre pairs strong support ya resistance zones mein hain. Choti four-hour chart par, MACD indicator ek bearish divergence dikhata hai.

H4 TF reference ke mutabiq, ek dominant bullish movement ho rahi hai jo MA 50 (red) ke movement limit ke control mein hai. Current increase RSI 70 level ke overbought area ke upar move kar chuka hai aur MA 50 movement limit ko peeche chhod diya hai. Yeh further bullish efforts ke liye ek barrier ho sakta hai, jo ek downward movement ko allow kar sakta hai taake ek limited bearish correction phase carry out ho sake. Agar bearish correction phase hota hai, to downward target ko test karne ka possibility hai nearest hidden demand area mein, jo 1.1088 ke range mein hai, ya rbs area ko neeche reach karne ki koshish karna, jo 1.1048 ke range mein hai.

Buying transactions par focus abhi bhi count mein liya ja sakta hai jabtak price MA50 (red) movement limit ke neeche support area mein 1.0950 ke range mein fall nahi karti. Short term mein, bearish correction movement ke follow karte hue selling consider ki ja sakti hai, ek sell position ko range 1.1120-1.1130 se enter karne ke liye aur TP 1 ko 1.1090 ke range mein aur TP 2 ko 1.1050 ke range mein target karne ke liye. Sell plan ek risk loss limit is hafte ke high area ke upar place kar sakti hai, jo 1.1150 ke range mein hai. Best re-entry buy area range 1.1050-1.1080 se enter karne ke liye consider kiya ja sakta hai. Price level range se target increase is hafte ke high price limit 1.1130 ke range mein aur long-term purchase option ko base up rally movement ke liye plan kiya ja sakta hai, jo previous year ke highest price limit 1.1270 ke range mein hai.

Euro ki qeemat apni decline ko continue karte hue $1.0825 ke support level tak pohanchi hai, jo ke chaar maheenon ke sabse highest level $1.094 se door ho gayi hai, jo ke 17 July ko touch kiya tha, jab euro zone, Germany aur France ke weak PMI data release hue the. In reports ke baad yeh umeed barh gayi ke European Central Bank iss saal do aur dafa interest rates cut karega.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Flash Eurozone PMIs ne July mein private sector activity mein unexpected slump ki taraf ishara kiya, jo ke manufacturing mein zyada contraction aur services mein slowdown ki wajah se hua. Germany aur France broader region mein underperform karte rahe. Iske nateejay mein, traders ne European Central Bank ke do aur interest rate cuts ki bets ko 80% se badhakar 90% tak kar diya hai PMI data ke baad.

Europe mein, German Treasuries aur French oats yields ke darmiyan yield gap barhkar 71.70 basis points tak pohanch gaya, jo ke France mein political tensions ki wajah se hua. Far-left National Front party ke taraf se pension reform ko reverse karne ka proposal, jo President Macron ne approve kiya tha, far-right National Front party ki support ke sath, ne fiscal spending aur France ke debt par risk premium ke hawalay se concerns ko barha diya hai. President Macron ne kaha hai ke unki government Olympics ke dauran mid-August tak barqarar rahegi, aur left-wing coalition ke efforts ko reject karte hue naye prime minister ko appoint karne se inkaar kar diya hai.

Daily chart par Euro ke price ke performance ke mutabiq, EUR/USD currency pair abhi bhi mazbooti se important psychological support level 1.0800 ke tor par inclined hai, aur agar yeh break hota hai, to bears ko aur zyada momentum milega ke woh price ko neeche le jayein. Aur agle most important support levels 1.0745 aur 1.0660 par honge, respectively. Dusri taraf, isi time period ke dauran, aur jaisa ke maine pehle bhi mention kiya, general trend mein upar ki taraf koi strong aur important shift tab tak nahi aayegi jab tak yeh wapas psychological resistance 1.1000 ke level tak na pohanche. Aaj Euro Dollar ki qeemat European Central Bank ke Governor Lagarde ke statements aur German IFO reading ke announcement, aur phir important American economic data, jo GDP growth reading, weekly unemployed claims, aur durable goods orders ke hawalay se hai, se affect hogi.

Euro ne Thursday ke trading session ke early hours mein significant swings dekhe, jo ki market ki direction ke liye struggle ko reflect karta hai. Currency 1.11 level ki taraf pull back karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh is level se neeche break karta hai, toh hum 1.10 mark ki taraf aur decline dekh sakte hain. Overall, market ek crossroads par hai, yeh gauge karne ki koshish kar raha hai ki kya yeh enough momentum hai apne upward trajectory ko continue karne ke liye. Agar euro 1.1175 level se upar break karta hai, toh yeh 1.1250 ki taraf rally ke liye way pave kar sakta hai. Is movement ka zyada hissa Federal Reserve ki actions par depend karta hai, especially potential rate cuts ke terms mein. While Fed September mein rate cuts karne ki widely expect ki ja rahi hai, extent of its aggressiveness uncertain hai. Market may not have fully priced in aggressive rate cut ki possibility, jo ki global economy ke concerns ko signal kar sakta hai. Aisi scenarios mein, US dollar typically benefits karta hai kyunki investors often US Treasury bond markets ki safety ko seek karte hain economic uncertainty ke during. Technical point of view se, yeh important hai ki note ki Euro abhi bhi overbought state mein hai Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke according. Additionally, RSI aur price action ke beech some divergence hai, jo ki pullback ke horizon par indicate kar sakta hai. Yeh divergence often ek warning sign hota hai ki current trend losing steam hai. Short mein, euro ne resilience dikhai hai, lekin uski future direction technical factors aur Federal Reserve decisions par depend karegi. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels aur any signs of divergence ko close eye se dekhna chahiye potential market volatility ko navigate karne ke liye Europe aur China ke beech tensions escalate ho rahe hain, khaskar China ke recent stance ke baad European dairy products par EU-China trade conflict mein. Yeh tension already struggling European economy ko aur strain kar sakta hai. Kuch EU officials keh rahe hain ki migrants ki influx economic growth ko stimulate kar sakti hai, lekin yeh expectation Europe ki current situation mein optimistic lag raha hai.

Agar EUR/USD pair apne upward trend ko continue karta hai, toh bullish momentum ko follow karna wise ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar bearish signal chart par emerge hota hai, trading volumes ke confirmed hone par, sell karne ka opportunity ho sakta hai. Koi clear signals nahi hain ki price continue rise karega ya reverse downward, isliye market se bahar rehna best ho sakta hai jab tak reliable signal na appear ho.
Current chart patterns ke according, agar EUR/USD pair downward shift hota hai, toh yeh accumulation area 1.0952 ke around move kar sakta hai


Sirf very strong US statistics dollar ko Jerome Powell ke speech se pehle position regain karne mein madad karega, lekin is scenario ko bhi question kiya ja sakta hai, kyunki euro ko sell karne ke liye real reasons nahi hain. Agar euro rise karne ki koshish karta hai, main sellers ko 1.1157 resistance level par act karne ki ummeed karta hoon, jo hum first half of the day mein break nahi kar paaye. False breakout ki formation wahan, similar to earlier discussion, short positions open karne ka reason hoga, targeting decline toward 1.1129 support level.
Breakout aur consolidation is range se neeche, along with retest from bottom up, another selling opportunity provide karega, targeting 1.1102 area, jahan main more active buyer interest ki ummeed karta hoon. Ultimate target 1.1073 area hoga, jahan main profits lock karunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein rise karti hai, extending trend, aur bears 1.1157 par show nahi karte (jo ki zyada likely hai), buyers ko further significant growth ki chance milegi. Is case mein, main selling ko postpone karunga next resistance 1.1188 test hone tak. Main wahan bhi sell karunga lekin only failed consolidation ke baad. Main 1.1226 se rebound par short positions open karunga, targeting downward correction 30-35 points