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Fundamental Analysis

Friday ke European session mein, EUR/USD pair thoda sa rebound kiya 1.1120 ke qareeb, Thursday ko 1.1174 ke new high se decline karne ke baad. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein address se pehle caution ke karan, main currency pair higher move kiya jab US Dollar (USD) ne apni recent weakness ko continue kiya, respectable recovery move ke baad.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko six major currencies ke khilaf measure karta hai, Thursday ko 101.00 se 101.60 par rise karne ke baad, Friday ko 101.30 par drop kiya. Flash US S&P Global PMI data ke August ne dikhaya ki Composite PMI stronger-than-expected 54.1 par aaya, jisne US dollar ko sharply rebound karne ke liye majbur kiya. Study ne dikhaya ki services sector ki strong growth ne economic activity ko spur kiya, jabke manufacturing sector ne faster-than-expected pace se shrink kiya.

Investors US economy ko "soft landing" achieve karne ki possibility ko bhi consider kar rahe hain, kyunki price pressures 2% ke targeted rate par return karne ki ummeed hai. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ne labour demand mein dramatic slowdown aur unemployment rate 4.3% par rise ko dikhaya, jo November 2021 ke baad highest level hai, US recession ki fears ko intensify karne ke liye.

Analysts ki ummeed nahi hai ki Jerome Powell interest rates ke predetermined trajectory ko provide karega. Lekin, dangers ab dual mandate ke employment aur inflation components ko extend kar rahe hain, woh September mein rate cuts ko advocate kar sakta hai.

Technical Analysis

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ke JH Symposium mein address par focused hai, EUR/USD pair ne 1.1100 ke round-level support ko maintain karne mein kamyab raha. Daily time frame mein channel formation ke breakout ke baad, common currency pair ke prognosis positive raha. Short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ki increased slope se significant upswing hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strong upward momentum ko indicate karta hai, lekin overbought levels ko cross karta hai. Yeh positive region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillate karta hai.

Euro ke bulls 1.1200 ke round-level resistance ko retake kar sakte hain agar December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se clear break hota hai. Downside par 1.1100 ke round-level number par significant support zone hai

Pichlay trading hafta, Euro ne 1.0926 ka mark break kiya magar mazeed aage barhne mein nakam raha aur apne tamam gains kho diye, support area mein mazid strong hotay hue. Is tarah se expected development scenario poora nahi ho saka kyun ke target territory tak nahi pohonch saka aur abhi bhi kaam kar raha hai. Is darmiyan, price chart super trendy green zone mein rehta hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain.
In data ne market mein optimism ko barhaya, jis se US stocks mein izafa hua. US dollar index Euro ki qeemat ke muqable mein 102.70 points tak gir gaya, jo ke 1.10159 points ke qareeb tha. Aaj ke trading din mein, Euro ne maximum 1.10169 points tak pohoncha, jab ke minimum 1.0992 points tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke qareebi rate cut ka rasta kholti hai aur yeh expectations barha sakti hai ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts shuru karega.
news ab bhi ek ahem factor hai jo ke Euro ki trajectory ko affect kar sakta hai. Consensus yeh expect kar raha hai ke US ka CPI 0.2% se barhay ga, aur market ka reaction is baat par depend karega ke asal numbers is forecast se kitne match ya deviated hote hain.

Agar CPI expected se zyada garam aata hai aur Euro ko 1.0980 ke neeche gira deta hai, toh phir se 1.09 level tak girawat ka imkaan hai. Magar agar data expectations ke mutabiq hota hai, toh hum Euro ko mazeed barhte hue dekh sakte hain, jaisay ke recent
Pair is waqt har hafta flat trade kar raha hai, weekly highs set karne ke baad magar unhe hold karne mein nakam. Key support area ko test kiya gaya, aur mazid strong pressure ke bawajood, is ne apni integrity barqarar rakhi, jo ke prices ko range mein rakhta hai, aur yeh upside vector ki ahmiyat ko zahir karta hai. Aagey barhnay ke liye, 1.0926 level ke upar strong consolidation ki zaroorat hai, jahan main support area border karta hai. Agar is area ka kamiyab retest hota hai aur subsequent rebound hota hai, to nayi move higher ki taraf ho sakti hai, target area 1.1033 aur 1.1121 ke darmiyan ho sakta hai

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD pair ne Thursday ko slightly downward correct kiya, lekin yeh movement itna weak tha ki yeh dollar ke liye abhi koi prospects nahi khulta. Yeh jo humne kal dekha, woh sirf minor pullback tha. Price today bhi similar-sized pullback show kar sakta hai aur trend line se upar reh sakta hai. Isliye, bearish trend reversal ke koi signs nahi hain abhi.

Kal, Eurozone, Germany, aur US ke liye business activity ke indices publish kiye gaye. Inmein se koi bhi data dollar ya euro ke liye positive ya negative nahi tha. EU se morning data ne euro mein slight drop trigger kiya, lekin market overall pair ko buy karta raha. Isliye, growth today quickly resume ho sakti hai. Aur, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell aaj evening mein speak karenge. Yeh event already factored in ho sakta hai, lekin market ko new dollar sales ke liye use karne ka chance hai.

5-minute chart mein, Thursday ke movements favorable nahi the. Market currently pair ke saath kuch nahi kar raha hai, siwaaye isko buy karne ke. Price ne initially 1.1132 level se bounce kiya, phir 5 hours total flat mein spend kiye, aur later is level ko surpass kiya. Isliye, first buy signal false nikla, jabki second accurate tha.





Trading tips Friday ke liye: EUR/USD upward trend form karta raha hai, hourly time frame mein trend line ke saath support. Hum believe karte hain ki euro ne fully factored in all bullish factors, isliye hum further upward movement ki ummeed nahi karte. Lekin, market phir se show karta hai ki woh almost any event ke liye panic selling dollar ke liye ready hai. Aur agar koi events nahi hain, to woh dollar ko sake ke liye sell karta hai. Hum pair ki drop ki ummeed kar sakte hain, jab yeh trend line ke neeche consolidate hota hai. Friday ko, novice traders decline ki continuation ki ummeed kar sakte hain, kyunki price indefinitely rise nahi kar sakta. Downside se 1.1132 level se bounce short positions open karne ka opportunity provide kar sakta hai. Key levels 5M time frame mein 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1184, 1.1275-1.1292 hain. Friday ko, Eurozone mein koi major events schedule nahi hain, jabki Jerome Powell US mein speak karenge. Yeh Federal Reserve chair speech easily new dollar decline trigger kar sakta hai, agar market suspects ki Powell ki rhetoric already conveyed se slightly more dovish hai

Euro ne August main apni doosri sabse unchi satah hasil ki hai, jise sarmaayakaro ke darmiyan aam taur par optimistic jazbaat ka asar hai. Federal Reserve ka qareebi rujhan, jo zyada supportive lagta hai, ne yeh umeed barha di hai ke interest rates mein izafa ab khatam honay wala hai. Is badalte huye rujhan ne bazaar ka risk appetite kaafi barha diya hai. Zhishang Institute ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 18 September ko rate cut ke chances qareeban teen mein se ek hain. Federal Reserve ke afsaraan ne khud bhi is baat ka izhar kiya hai ke 25 basis point tak ki rate reduction ho sakti hai. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium main Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne tasleem kiya ke central bank ab apne benchmark interest rate ko kam karne par ghor kar raha hai.

Agle hafte ke economic data mein ziada ahmiyat nahi hogi, magar European Union aur United States ke inflation data ko qareebi se dekha jaye ga. US GDP growth ka data jo ke Thursday ko anay wala hai, bazaar ke jazbaat ko hilaa sakta hai, magar traders ki tawajju Friday ko aane wale dual inflation reports par hi rahe gi.

European Union ka preliminary inflation data (HICP) agle Jumme ko expected hai. United States main personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation index ke Fed ke target level par qaim rehne ki umeed hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke inflation pressures kam ho rahe hain. Kuch challenges ke bawajood, Euro ne Friday ko naya high hasil kiya, aur 1.1300 ke area ko test kiya. Trading sentiment mein kuch ikhtilaf ke bawajood, overall price trend upward hai, jo darshata hai ke Euro mazid taqat pakar raha hai. US dollar ka recent rebound apni 200-day moving average low se Euro ko mazeed support de raha hai. Euro-to-dollar exchange rate barh rahi hai, aur agar price 1.1300 ke upar convincing break kar leti hai, to bullish sentiment mazeed barh sakta hai. Lekin agar price is level ko maintain karne mein nakam hoti hai, to short-term pullback ka risk ho sakta hai.

Budh ke din American session mein, currency pair kareeb 1.1150 tak barh gaya jab ke US Dollar (USD) mazid mazboot hua. Yeh uptick tab aaya jab investors ne apni tawajju Federal Reserve ke aane wale interest rate decision par mor di. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ko chay badi currencies ke muqable mein measure karta hai, kareeb 101.20 tak surge kar gaya. Expectations hain ke Federal Reserve apne interest rates ko 5.25%-5.50% range mein barqarar rakhega, lekin market participants eagerly Fed ke monetary policy statement aur Chair Jerome Powell ki press conference ka intezar kar rahe hain taake aane wale rate cuts ke hawale se mazeed insights. mil saken. ECB aur Fed Policies: EUR/USD Movements par Asar Daalne Walay Key Factors

Is ke baraks, Euro (EUR) downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai ECB ke expected rate cuts ki wajah se. Guzishta hafte, ECB ne rates ko change nahi kiya, lekin recent kamzor German IFO survey results aur soft economic data ne mazeed rate cut ke liye expectations ko barhawa diya hai. Traders ab Germany aur Eurozone ke second quarter ke preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports ka intezar kar rahe hain. Agar GDP figures expectations se behtar aye to yeh Euro ko support de sakti hain, aur bearish sentiment ko thoda balance kar sakti hain.

Market analysts yeh anticipate karte hain ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts par discussion shuru karne ke liye signal de sakta hai, kyunki inflation ko 2% target ke qareeb lane mein progress hui hai aur labor market ke liye risks barh gaye hain. Inflation fears kam hue hain kyunki input prices mein aakhri chand mahino mein significant kamiyan aayi hain. Preliminary Q2 GDP report ne Price Index mein deceleration dikhaya hai jo ke 2.3% tak aagaya hai, jab ke estimates 2.6% aur previous reading 3.1% thi

EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

EUR/USD ka price action breakdown:

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, main U.S. session ke khatam hone aur Asian session ke shuru hone ka intezar kar raha tha, magar growth Asian market tak bhi jaari rahi. 1.1051-71 point par main aik slow down aur reversal ki umeed kar raha tha. Lekin jab maine lambi candlesticks dekhi, toh lagta hai ke hum 13 figures ki taraf barh sakte hain. Ideally, mujhe pehle rollback dekhna acha lagega, lekin yeh kehna mushkil hai ke price kahan settle hogi. Phir bhi, growth mazboot hai. Volume ke hisaab se 1.0936 tak ka correction mumkin hai, magar candlesticks ke indicators kuch aur hi keh rahe hain. Ab main kal ke U.S. session ka intezar kar raha hoon. Mahina growth ke sath close hoga, shayad shadow ke sath, magar filhal buy trades shayad achi rahe. U.S. fundamentals itne strong nahi hain, EU economy ke muqablay mein.

Daily scale par, euro-dollar buyers 1.0603 ke low se upward trend ko drive kar rahe hain, pehla impulse zone target 1.1110 hai. Pichle high 1.1140 se downward fan ka last angle aaj tha, isliye yeh bullish extreme aane ke chances hain. EUR/USD pair aaj apni highs par close hone ke qareeb hai, aur trading ke end se pehle bearish pullback ki umeed kam hai. Filhal, hum sirf observe kar sakte hain. Daily chart par nearest significant support 1.0916 hai, magar mujhe is level tak rapid drop ki umeed nahi. Upward trend indicate karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi sellers par dominant hain. Choti-moti pullbacks ke bawajood, bulls control mein hain aur bears ko control dene ko tayyar nahi hain. Zigzag line confirm karti hai ke long positions open karna sahi rahega. MACD aur RSI indicators bhi long-buy zone ki taraf indicate kar rahe hain.

Euro ne aaj kal ek behtareen rally dekhi hai, aur jaise hi hum Monday ke subah mein enter kar rahe hain, lagta hai ke is mein halki si girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Magar mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh retracement bohot gehra hoga. Is haftay economic data kaafi kam dikhayi de raha hai, isliye market bas chalti rahegi aur direction ki talash karegi. 1.10 ka level ab bhi ek aham point hai aur yeh price magnet ki tarah kaam kar raha hai. Agar hum 1.1050 ke level ke upar significant break dekhein, to euro 1.11 ke level ki taraf jaa sakta hai. Lekin, rally shayad ab apni taqat khota nazar aa rahi hai.

Iska matlab yeh nahi ke major failure abhi foran hone wala hai. Balki, lagta hai ke market ab aise phase mein hai jahan ECB ke rate cut ke fears aur Federal Reserve ke agle move ke speculation ke beech oscillate kar rahi hai. In central bank policies ki uncertainty market ke choppy aur indecisive trading behavior ka sabab ban rahi hai.

Chart ko broader nazar se dekhte hain to yeh clear hai ke current area historically significant resistance ke tor par serve karta raha hai. Yeh sawaal uthta hai ke euro kitna aur upar ja sakta hai. Maujooda dynamics ke mad e nazar, lagta hai market narrow band mein fluctuate karti rahegi bina kisi significant directional movement ke.

Choti si baat yeh hai ke Euro short term mein halki si girawat ya faida dekh sakta hai, lekin overall trend cautious range-bound trading ka hai. Central bank decisions par nazar rakhenge aur dekhenge ke yeh future market behavior ko kaise affect karte hain, lekin filhal expect karein ke euro back and forth move karta rahega bina kisi clear breakout ke.

EUR/USD technical analysis

General tor par candlestick analysis ke mutabiq, pichle din aur haftay ka market halaat muddled hain, lekin agar sab kuch clear aur reliable hota, to southern direction ka option zyada mazboot lagta. H4 par, oversold zone se buy signal mil raha hai, lekin technique ke hisaab se, humne 60% level tak technical correction perform kar liya hai.

H1 par technical correction ka khatam hona mumkin hai, aur agar yeh smoothly H4 par transfer hota hai, yeh dekhna baaki hai. Basement ke around, ek overbought zone hai, jo is baat ko confirm karta hai ke upward rollback yahin khatam ho sakta hai. Candlestick analysis ke mutabiq, dono ghanton ke liye, H4 par ek reversal Shooting Star pattern hai aur pehle candle par ek bearish Pin bar hai.

Market mein, EUR/USD Aussie ke bilkul opposite hai. Aaj maine yeh problem notice kiya. AUD ke liye, H4 TF par Kiwi mein decrease ka signal mila tha jo practical tha. Low selling rate ki wajah se, is signal ke continue hone ki potential nahi lagti. Naye minimum ki ummed nahi hai aur flat move hone ki sambhavana hai. Yeh indirectly risky currencies ke pairs ko bhi affect karta hai. New Zealand dollar kaafi conservative hai, lekin technical entry points ko nazar andaz nahi karna chahiye. Short term aur long term ke darmiyan jo bhi correlation hoga, usko zaroor dekhna chahiye.

EUR/USD thora sa barh gaya hai jabke US Dollar gir raha hai, traders ne apna focus Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein hone wale speech par laga diya hai. Investors September aur baqi saal ke liye naye interest-rate guidance ka intezar kar rahe hain.

ECB se September mein aik aur interest rate cut ka intezar hai. EUR/USD apni recent year-to-date high 1.1174 se Thursday ko thora correct hone ke baad Friday ki European session mein 1.1120 ke qareeb recover kar raha hai. Major currency pair barh raha hai jabke US Dollar apni recent weakness ko resume kar raha hai, ek din pehle thodi recovery ke bawajood, kyunke Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein hone wale speech se pehle caution barh raha hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko 6 major currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb gir gaya hai, Thursday ko 101.00 ke more-than-seven-month low se recover hoke 101.60 ke qareeb pohcha tha. US Dollar ne strongly bounce back kiya jab flash US S&P Global PMI report for August ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI estimate se better 54.1 pe aayi. Overall report ne dikhaya ke business activity ko services sector ki robust expansion se boost mila, jabke manufacturing sector ke economy ne expected se ziada contraction kiya.

JH Symposium mein Jerome Powell ka speech – jo ke 14:00 GMT pe scheduled hai – se interest rates aur United States (US) economic outlook ke hawale se cues milne ki umeed hai. Market participants yeh jan'na chahte hain ke September meeting mein interest rate cuts ka size kya ho sakta hai, given ke “vast majority” of officials ne kaha tha ke "agar data as expected aata raha, toh agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna appropriate hoga," FOMC ke July 30-31 policy meeting ke minutes ke mutabiq.

Investors US economy ke soft landing ke chances ko bhi dekh rahe hain, yeh jante hue ke price pressures 2% ke desired rate par wapas aane ke track par hain. Ek potential US recession ke khauf barh gaye hain jabke Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July ne labor demand mein sharp slowdown aur Unemployment Rate 4.3% (jo ke November 2021 ke baad highest level hai) dikhaya.



Analysts yeh expect nahi karte ke Jerome Powell koi preset interest rate path provide karenge. Magar yeh mumkin hai ke woh September mein rate cuts ko appropriate ke taur par declare karein, given ke risks ab dono dual mandate (inflation aur employment) ke aspects par barh gaye hain.

EUR/USD round-level support 1.1100 ke upar hold kar raha hai, investors ka focus Fed Powell ke JH Symposium ke speech par hai. Shared currency pair ka outlook abhi bhi upbeat hai jabke daily time frame par channel formation ka breakout hua hai. Sab short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) higher slope kar rahe hain, jo ke strong uptrend suggest karte hain.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, overbought levels ko touch karte hue magar abhi bhi strong upside momentum suggest kar raha hai.

Agar December 28, 2023, ke high 1.1140 ke upar decisive break ho gaya, toh Euro bulls round-level resistance 1.1200 ko recapture karne ka aim kar sakte hain. Downside par, round-level figure 1.1100 aik major support zone ke taur par act kar raha hai.

Eurusd Market ka response kafi positive raha, USD ki global currencies ke muqable mein kamzori dekhne ko mili. Chund din pehle, global stock exchanges ne bhi is potential ka jawab diya, aur Indonesia Stock Exchange ne pichle Wednesday ko intraday record high 7,594 ko record kiya. Lekin is rally ke dauran ek correction bhi zaroori hoti hai, kyunki market ek hi direction mein nahi chalti. Is journal mein, main technical analysis karke ek optimal trading plan banane ki koshish kar raha hoon. Halanki price 1.12000 ke upar close nahi hui, lekin bullish bias ab bhi main direction hai. Agle haftay trading ke dauran, 1.1276 ke nazdeek resistance ko test kiya ja sakta hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke price ne do hafton ke liye Red EMA200 ke upar close kiya, jo ke pichli bar ke mukable mein zyada significant hai, jab price sirf ek hafta ke liye is EMA ke upar rahi thi. Agar 1.1276 ke upar breakout hota hai aur price stable rehti hai, toh potential increase 1.1500 level tak pahunch sakti hai, jo ke pehle consolidation ka area tha aur wahan sellers ka strong reaction milne ki ummeed hai, kyunki is area se price pehle bahut gehri girawat dekhi thi.



H4 chart par, do bullish candlesticks jo upper Bollinger Band ko breakout kar gayi hain, yeh strong indication hai ke yeh movement impulsive hai. Pichle bearish candle ke mukable yeh bullish movement zyada significant lag rahi hai. Is situation mein, traders turant buy position open kar sakte hain aur swing trading strategy apna sakte hain, kyunki increase structure bullish hai—Blue EMA50 upar, Purple EMA100 beech mein, aur Red EMA200 neeche. Is liye, patience rakhein aur buy position ko tab tak hold karein jab tak target 1.1276 tak nahi pahunchta.

Trades ka Tajzia aur Euro Trading ka Mashwara Aaj din mein maine jo levels mention kiye thay, woh market ki bohot kam volatility ki wajah se nahi pohanchay. Eurozone inflation data bhi economists ke forecasts ke mutabiq tha, lekin buyer aur seller positions mein koi bara tabadla nahi aaya. Haan, Euro ke upar yeh baat zor deti hai ke log abhi bhi Euro ko iss level par bechne mein zyada dilchaspi nahi le rahe, jo ke pair mein mazeed growth ka ishara hai. Doosray hissay mein aaj FOMC ke members Bostic aur Barr ke khitab bhi hain. Agar inki tone dovish hui, toh dollar aur kamzor ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD mein mazeed growth dekhnay ko mil sakti hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein Scenario 1 aur 2 ko follow karne ka plan bana raha hoon Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Aaj mein Euro ko tab khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab yeh 1.1092 (chart par green line) ke price area ko choo le, aur mera target 1.1139 par pohanchna hai. 1.1139 par, mein market se exit karunga aur phir Euro ko bech dunga, jahan se mein 30-35 points ka movement expect kar raha hoon. Aaj Euro mein strong upward movement ki umeed nahi hai, jaise ke bara decline bhi umeed se bahar hai. Aham baat: Khareedne se pehle, yeh zaroor check karen ke MACD indicator zero line ke upar hai aur sirf apni upward movement shuru kar raha hai
Scenario 2: Aaj Euro ko khareedne ka plan tab bhi bana raha hoon agar 1.1069 ke price level par do martaba consecutive tests hotay hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward movement ko limit karega aur uptrend ka sabab ban sakta hai. Growth ke expectations resistance levels 1.1092 aur 1.1139 tak hain
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: Mein Euro ko tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab yeh 1.1069 level (chart par red line) ko touch kare aur doosri conditions bhi meet karengi. Target 1.1025 level hoga, jahan mein market se exit karunga aur phir Euro ko khareedne ka plan banaunga, jahan se 20-25 points ka movement expect kar raha hoon opposite direction mein. Agar pair daily high se upar nahi jaa sakta, toh bearish pressure phir se barh sakta hai. Aham baat: Bechne se pehle, yeh zaroor check karen ke MACD indicator zero line ke neeche hai aur sirf apni downward movement shuru kar raha hai
Scenario 2: Aaj mein Euro ko tab bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 1.1092 ke price level par do martaba consecutive tests hotay hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur downward reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai. Decline ke expectations support levels 1.1069 aur 1.1025 tak hain
Yeh zaroori nahi ke ek major failure foran aa raha ho. Balki, hum aise phase mein hain jahan market European Central Bank ke rate cut ke darr aur Federal Reserve ke agle steps ke speculation ke beech oscillate kar rahi hai. In central bank policies ke around ki uncertainty hi choppy aur indecisive trading behavior ka kaaran ban rahi hai jo hum dekh rahe hain.

Chart ko broader nazar se dekhain to yeh clear hai ke current area historically significant resistance ka kaam karta raha hai. Is se yeh sawaal uthta hai ke euro kitna aur upar ja sakta hai. Maujooda dynamics ko dekhte hue, lagta hai ke market narrow band mein fluctuate karti rahegi bina kisi significant directional movement ke short term mein
In short, jab ke Euro choti moti declines ya gains dekh sakta hai, overall trend cautious range-bound trading ka hai. Hum central bank decisions par focus karenge aur dekhenge ke ye future market behavior ko kaise affect karte hain, lekin abhi ke liye, expect karein ke euro continue

Euro abhi European Central Bank ke cautious outlook ke kaaran pressure mein hai, jo Eurozone ki economic prospects par hai. Recent ECB communications se pata chalta hai ki inflation apni downward trend ko continue kar sakta hai, jo September mein possible interest rate cut ke liye door khulta hai. Doosri taraf, U.S. Dollar ne apni strength gain ki hai, jo July 11 se highest level par hai. Yeh appreciation U.S. Treasury bond yields ke rising aur market mein risk aversion ki general shift ke support se hai, jo Greenback ko safe-haven currency ke roop mein appeal karta hai. In factors ne EUR/USD pair par downward pressure add kiya hai. Market sentiment ko concerns ne bhi cloud kiya hai ki Donald Trump November mein upcoming U.S. presidential election mein return kar sakte hain. Aur, investors Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ke June ke release ko closely watch kar rahe hain, jo financial markets mein uncertainty ka ek aur layer add kar sakta hai.






Agar EUR/USD pair day ke latter part mein rise karta hai, aur bears 1.1157 level par control assert nahi kar paate hain, to buyers pair ko aur upar push kar sakte hain. Is scenario mein, selling ko next resistance level 1.1188 par test kiya jayega, aur short positions ko failed consolidation ke baad consider kiya jayega. Alternatively, short positions 1.1226 level se rebound par initiate ki ja sakti hain, jo downward correction ke around 30-35 points ko target karta hai. Technically, EUR/USD pair ko ascending channel ke upper boundary par significant resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, jo around 1.1250 level par hai. Is resistance ko break karne se pair ko 1.1200 region ki taraf propel kiya ja sakta hai, jo throwback resistance level ke roop mein act kar sakta hai

Euro ne aaj kal ek behtareen rally dekhi hai, aur jaise hi hum Monday ke subah mein enter kar rahe hain, lagta hai ke is mein halki si girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Magar mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh retracement bohot gehra hoga. Is haftay economic data kaafi kam dikhayi de raha hai, isliye market bas chalti rahegi aur direction ki talash karegi. 1.10 ka level ab bhi ek aham point hai aur yeh price magnet ki tarah kaam kar raha hai. Agar hum 1.1050 ke level ke upar significant break dekhein, to euro 1.11 ke level ki taraf jaa sakta hai. Lekin, rally shayad ab apni taqat khota nazar aa rahi hai.

Iska matlab yeh nahi ke major failure abhi foran hone wala hai. Balki, lagta hai ke market ab aise phase mein hai jahan ECB ke rate cut ke fears aur Federal Reserve ke agle move ke speculation ke beech oscillate kar rahi hai. In central bank policies ki uncertainty market ke choppy aur indecisive trading behavior ka sabab ban rahi hai.

Chart ko broader nazar se dekhte hain to yeh clear hai ke current area historically significant resistance ke tor par serve karta raha hai. Yeh sawaal uthta hai ke euro kitna aur upar ja sakta hai. Maujooda dynamics ke mad e nazar, lagta hai market narrow band mein fluctuate karti rahegi bina kisi significant directional movement ke.

Choti si baat yeh hai ke Euro short term mein halki si girawat ya faida dekh sakta hai, lekin overall trend cautious range-bound trading ka hai. Central bank decisions par nazar rakhenge aur dekhenge ke yeh future market behavior ko kaise affect karte hain, lekin filhal expect karein ke euro back and forth move karta rahega bina kisi clear breakout ke.