eur/usd

Pichlay do trading dino mein, qeemat ka trend sideways raha aur narrow range mein move karta raha, jo ke pichlay hafton ke price movement se kafi mukhtalif tha. Aaj ka trading session bhi sideways trend ke andar hi open hua, aur trading ke aghaz se hi qeemat slow aur sideways direction mein chal rahi hai. Yeh qeemat ki harkat abhi tak aglay direction ka taayun nahi karti, is liye sideways movement ko rectangle pattern ke tor par deal kiya ja sakta hai. Sabse pehli cheez jo ki ja sakti hai wo yeh ke sabse zyada aur sabse kam qeemat ka taayun kiya jaye.

Jab qeemat upper line ko break kare aur wapis test kare, to isay upward trend consider kiya ja sakta hai. Iske baraks, agar qeemat lower line ko break kare aur wapis test kare, to isay downward trend ka signal samjha ja sakta hai.

Economic side par dekha jaye to euro ka rate $1.09 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke pichlay do mahine ka sabse kam level hai. Yeh US dollar ki general taqat aur expectations ke chalte ho raha hai ke US Federal Reserve borrowing costs ko expect se slow pace par reduce karega. Europe mein, European Central Bank (ECB) se umeed ki ja rahi hai ke wo is haftay ke meeting mein deposit rate mein 25 basis points ka cut karega, jaise ke September aur June mein kiya tha.

Tajiron ka maan'na hai ke ECB apni har meeting mein ek quarter point ka cut karta rahega, March tak. Eurozone mein annual inflation rate September 2024 mein 1.8% tak gir gayi, jo ke April 2021 ke baad se sabse kam hai.

Stock trading platforms ke mutabiq, Eurozone stocks ne is hafta ko green mein end kiya. European stocks Friday ke din zyada high pe band hui, jo ke North American counterparts ke positive session se faida uthate hue thi, khasa tor par earnings season ke positive start ke baad. Saath hi, investors ne kuch economic data ko evaluate kiya. France ka 2025 budget bhi bariki se dekha ja raha hai, jisme spending cuts aur companies, wealthy, aur energy sector par tax barhaye gaye hain.

aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew EUR/USD tab tak purani halat mein nahi rahe ga jab tak Fed ka faisla nahi aata. Aap shayad European Central Bank (ECB) ke meeting ka bhi zikar kar rahe hain, jo Thursday ko hai, jo is maamle mein ahmiyat rakhti hai. Maine forecast calendar ko dekha aur mujhe dekhar hairani hui ke 0.6 basis points ka rate reduction plan kiya gaya hai, jo rate ko 4.25% se 3.64% tak le aayega. Agar yeh forecast theek raha, toh EUR/USD mein kam zyada girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin, agar ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points ka reduction karta hai, toh EUR/USD ko mazid taqat mil sakti hai. Aise mein ECB ka rate cut dollar ko mazid majboot karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Pichle Jumme ko EUR/USD pair ne khaas taur par behtareen recovery dikhai, jo ke kuch 4 hafton ke baad sab se neechi levels se upar aya. Yeh positive momentum pair ko haftay ke trading range ke upar end tak le gaya, jo lagbhag 1.1090 ke aas-paas tha. Is upar chadhai ko kamzor US dollar ne support diya, jo ke weaker-than-expected US Producer Price
Index (PPI) report ki wajah se tha. PPI data ne Federal Reserve ke agle haftay zyada aggressive rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhadiya. Is positive risk sentiment ke sath, US dollar ne girawat dikhai aur is ka natija yeh hua ke EUR/USD pair ki qeemat mein izafa hua. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka apne current interest rate stance ko barqarar rakhna euro ko support diya, jo currency

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Qarib tarin muzahmati satahon par wapas aane ke bad, euro/dollar ke jode se maujudah satah ya is se thoda ooper nuqsanat dobara shuru karne ki ummid hai, mumkena taur par 1.0785 ke nishan ho hadaf banate hue. Agar qalil muddati kami ka rujhan toot jata hai aur European currency ki qadar me izafa hota hai to, market me tezi se islah jari rahega. Jahan tak aaj ke intraday trading ki baat hai, euro/dollar ka joda filhal 1.0838 ke yaumiyah pivot point par trade kar raha hai. European session ke qarib chizen wazeh hone ka imkan hai aur jodi din ke liye apne mansube dikhayegi. Agar qimat 1.0833 ke nishan se ooper msutahkam ho jati hai to, euro ke pas 1.0868 - 1.0885 range ka test karne ka mauqa hoga. Agar qimat 1.0838 se niche aati hai to, iska matlab hoga keh tezi ki islah ka waqt abhi nahin aaya hai.



Ab aaiye margin zone ke nazariye se market ki suratehl par gaur karein. Kal, qimat ne 1.0811 - 1.0795 ke ilaqe ka test kiya. Agar euro me girawat jari rahti hai to, 1.0763 - 1.0742 ke ilaqe ko hadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai, jo ooper bataye gaye 1.0785 ke nishan se niche hai. Asuli taur par, control zone ke darmiyan ki satah se qimat ka durust hona koi mamuli bat nahin hai. Bulls case scenario me, agar qimat apni pichli kami se islah ke hisse ke taur par badhna jari rakhti hai to, imkan hai keh farokht karne wale 1.0858 aur 1.0853 ki satahon se munsalik sales range me markat par dobara contril hasil kar lenge.

dabaav banaye rakha, lekin European majors EUR/USD aur GBP/USD ko zyada asar nahi hua, aur DAX bhi US markets ke saath upar gaya Tuesday ko. Aaj US economic calendar mein zyada kuch nahi hai, isliye umeed hai ke dollar zyada hila-jula nahi karega, magar halki hawkish bias ke sath rahega, jiski wajah se Middle East mein tensions aur US rate expectations mein hawkish shift hai jo ke Friday ke dovish report ke baad samne aayi thi. Filhal koi waisa sabab nahi lagta jo US dollar mein significant selloff ka sabab ban sake, siwai agar Middle East mein tensions mein kami aaye.
Markets ne takreeban 50bp Fed cut ka khayal chor diya hai, aur is haftay ke US inflation data se yeh soorat-e-haal tabdeel hone ki umeed nahi hai. Eurozone mein, jabke German industrial data ne ek surprise month-on-month rise dikhaya 2.9% ka Tuesday ko, ECB ke 25 basis point rate cut ko agle hafte tak nahi roknay ki umeed hai. Nateeja yeh ke EUR/USD ka rasta thoda downside ki taraf jhukta nazar aa raha hai.

Kya US dollar mazeed gains kar sakta hai? US dollar ne guzishta hafte Powell ke hawkish bayanat aur mazboot non-farm payrolls news ke baad rally ki thi, lekin humne doosre major central banks, jaise ke ECB, BoE, aur BoJ se dovish signals bhi dekhe hain. Saath hi, Chinese markets ne bhi week ki shuruaat thoda kamzor ki hai, jo commodity aur EM FX ke muqablay mein dollar ko mazid support dene wala ek aur factor hai.

Markets ab puri tarah Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke 50bp cut ke mukhalifat se mutabiq hain, aur ab November aur December mein 25bp cuts price in kiye jaa rahe hain. Agle chand dinon mein thodi volatility honi chahiye, lekin EUR/USD mein koi bara move October ke akheer tak expected nahi hai, jab naya jobs aur activity data release hoga, siwai agar ECB agle hafte koi surprise de.

EUR/USD ne Tuesday ko 1.1135 se gir kar ek din mein 0.60% ka nuqsaan uthaya, aur ab Wednesday ko 1.1070s par qareeb qareeb wohi qeemat par trade kar raha hai. Eurozone ke inflation figures ke expected se kam hone ne is girawat ko kuch had tak samjhaya. Eurozone ka Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) September mein sirf 1.8% YoY barha, jo ke 1.9% forecast se kam tha aur pehle ke 2.2% se bhi neeche raha. Core inflation bhi 2.7% YoY par tha, jo August ke 2.8% se ek tenth kam tha aur umeed se neeche aaya. In numbers ke mutabiq, ECB ka 2.0% ka target headline inflation ke liye ab door hota nazar aata hai, jabke core inflation is ke qareeb hai. Yeh baat ECB ke interest rates mein kami ka imkaan barhati hai, jo ke capital flight aur Euro ki girawat ka sabab ban sakti hai. Eurozone ke August unemployment rate ne zyada asar nahi dala, jo 6.4% par saba raha, bilkul experts ke forecasts ke mutabiq aur July se badla nahi. Technical analysis.
EUR/USD ka pair 1.0500 ke aas paas neeche aur 1.1200 ke aas paas ooper ka ek wide multi-year range mein phansa hua hai. Filhal, yeh range ke upper end ko chhu kar wapas retreat kar raha hai. "The trend is your friend" ke principle ke mutabiq, EUR/USD abhi ek sideways trend mein lagta hai, jo ke short, medium aur long term har significant period par dikh raha hai. Is liye, zyada imkaan yeh hai ke yeh trend qaim rahega aur is halat mein yeh pair dobara range ke lows ki taraf ja sakta hai. Ab prices downward trend shuru kar rahi hain. 1.1041 par yeh significant support tak pohanch gayi hain, jo ke 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ka red level hai, aur yeh girawat ko temporarily rok sakta hai. Agar yeh 50-day SMA, pichle up leg ki trendline, aur September 11 ke swing low 1.1002 ko torh deti hai, to yeh ek asal downward leg ka aghaz hoga. Agar prices 1.1000 ke neeche close karti hain, to yeh ek major bearish signal hoga. Uske baad ke hostile targets mein 200-day SMA at 1.0875, August 1 low at 1.0777, aur 1.0600 honge.