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EUR/USD D1 Chart
EUR/USD currency pair ne Monday ko rise dekha, trading 1.1060 ke range mein hui. Yeh upward movement zyada tar Federal Reserve ke significant rate cut ke expectation ki wajah se thi, jisne euro ko dollar ke muqablay mein mazboot banaya. US mein kam interest rates greenback ko foreign investors ke liye kam attractive banate hain, jo capital inflows ko kam karte hain aur US dollar par pressure daal dete hain. Iske muqablay mein, euro apni strength ko banaye rakha hai kyunki eurozone mein interest rates ke zyada rehne ki umeed hai, wage growth ke wajah se, jo European Central Bank ko rate cuts ke liye zyada cautious approach apnane par majboor kar raha hai. Jab traders US interest rates ke future direction ka tajziya kar rahe hain, euro ne dollar ke muqablay mein ground gain kiya hai. Fed ne indicate kiya hai ke 18 September ke meeting mein 0.50% rate cut ki probability 30% se zyada hai, jabke 0.25% rate cut ki possibility bhi significant hai. Market ab ek "significant rate cut" of 0.50% ko fully price kar raha hai, jo US dollar ke liye headwind bana hua hai aur EUR/USD pair ko support kar raha hai. Pichle Friday ko release hui US inflation data ne kuch relief diya, kyunki Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index July mein 2.5% par barqarar raha, aur Core PCE price index 2.6% par tha. Yeh figures expectations ke mutabiq thi aur shayad US economy ke potential hard landing ke concerns ko kam kiya. Magar, investors ko Fed ke potential actions ka confident tajziya karne ke liye aur economic data, is haftay ke US employment data, ka intezar karna hoga.




Aaj main EUR/USD par baat karunga. Market aaj holiday ki wajah se closed hai. 1.0845 closing price thi. Pichle haftay se prices narrow range mein fluctuate ho rahi hain. Market ne is mahine 1.0960 ka high dekha. Highest point par pahunchne ke baad, market ne support ko turn kiya. Is mahine ka low 1.0745 support provide karta hai. Agar price aane wale dino mein support par wapas aati hai, to market naye support create kar sakti hai. Market price resistance 1.0868 hai aur support 1.0941 par hai. H4 time frame par, agar candle support level ke upar close hoti hai to ek naya support level create hoga. Is mahine ka naya solid support level tab create hoga jab support break hoga aur ek naya create hoga. Chaliye baat karte hain aaj ke chart ki jo H1 time frame par prepare kiya gaya hai. Upar ke diagram mein support aur resistance ka use kiya gaya hai. Market price ne pichle haftay ek trend form kiya, aur agar yeh trend jaari raha to market price ek aur naya low tak pahunch sakti hai.

EUR/USD D1 Chart Analysis**
Dmitry, weekend mubarak! Agar meri samajh sahi hai, to aapka expectation hai ke price 1.1169 se niche jayegi. Mujhe nahi pata ke price itni high tak ja sakti hai ya nahi. Mera maanna hai ke hamari currency pair 1.1120–1.1140 tak upar ja sakti hai, jaisa ke maine pehle predict kiya tha. Maine 1.1120 se pending sale order place kiya tha. Ab, agreement thoda positive hai. Chuki lot choti hai, agar price significantly barh bhi jaye—jaise weekly maximum se upar—mujhe itna concern nahi hoga.

Asset ko reduce karna main idea hai. Main 1.0822 pe daily channel ka lower border par trade ko hold karunga. Maan leta hoon ke agar price channel ke lower edge tak girti hai, to yeh thodi movement dekhne ko milegi aur aur bhi choti ho sakti hai. Filhal, daily chart ka moving average green hai, jo buyers ko sellers se upar indicate karta hai. Lekin, moving average eventually sellers ki superiority ko highlight karne lagayegi.

Agar ek single sale breakeven stop par end hoti hai to theek hai. Lekin, maine kal EUR/USD ko 1.1108 se ek baar phir becha, aur is baar bhi zyada shorts breakeven par end hue. CME ne Friday, September 6 ke liye Volatility Range extend kiya hai aur dono non-farm payrolls aur unemployment ki preparation mein hai.

Technical indicators bhi is view ko support karte hain ke pair ek substantial move ke qareeb ho sakti hai. 4-hour chart fluctuation ko major support aur resistance levels ke beech dikhata hai, jahan pair mukhtalif liquidity zones aur fair value gaps (FVGs) se guzarti hai. Key levels jaise 1.1050 ke around multiple FVGs ki maujoodgi yeh suggest karti hai ke market abhi recent developments ke sath adjust ho rahi hai aur ek pronounced directional move ke liye tayaar ho sakti hai.

Technical factors ke sath-sath fundamental aspects bhi EUR/USD ke trajectory ko shape karne mein crucial role play karte hain. Eurozone aur U.S. mein recent developments ne market sentiment ko influence kiya hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne cautious stance rakha hai jab ke Federal Reserve ne zyada dovish stance adopt kiya hai. Monetary policy expectations ke is divergence ne current market dynamics ko contribute kiya hai, jahan euro ne zyada strength gain kiya hai amid a more accommodating Fed outlook.

Aage chal kar, EUR/USD pair ka behavior upcoming economic data aur geopolitical developments se influence hoga. Significant movement ka potential in factors ke interplay par depend karega. Agar pair key resistance 1.1100 ko break kar sakti hai aur is level ke upar sustain kar sakti hai, to yeh further upward movement ka signal ho sakta hai, jo 1.1200 ya usse upar test kar sakta hai. Conversely, agar support levels, khaaskar 1.1000, ke upar hold nahi karte, to deeper retracement ka indication mil sakta hai, aur lower levels jaise 1.0900 tak revisit hone ka possibility hai.

**EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook**

EUR/USD ka raajeh girawat ke bawajood, jab 1.1100 ke support level ko tor diya gaya, ECB se 12 September ko 25 basis points ki rate cut ki umeed hai. Wall Street ne Monday ko positive closing dikhayi, jo ke ek umda risk appetite ka ishaara hai, aur aane wale hafte mein US mein inflation data release honay wala hai. Dusri taraf, zyada tar analysts ka kehna hai ke ECB 25 basis points ki rate cut announce karega.

BBH ke analysts ka kehna hai ke ECB apni ehtiyaat pasand easing guidance ko barqarar rakhega, jo ke “policy ko zaroori waqt tak kaafi restrictively rakhega" aur data-dependent rahega.

ECB se umeed hai ke woh apne economic projections ka elan karega, jisme economic growth aur inflation ka downward revision shamil hoga. Money market traders abhi bhi price kar rahe hain ke saal ke aakhir tak 50 se 75 basis points ki cuts ki umeed hai.

Data ke hawale se, Eurozone ka economic docket Tuesday ko German Inflation data ko shamil karega, jabke Friday ko EU ka Industrial Production data release hoga.

US mein, New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations 3% ke threshold par barqarar hai. Hafte ke aghe, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) August ke liye 2% ke Fed ke goal ke kareeb girne ki umeed hai.

Agar CPI thoda aur girta hai, to Federal Reserve ke 50 basis points ki rate cut ke chances barh sakte hain. Warna, monetary policy mein gradual adjustments already priced in hain.

CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 25 basis points ki rate cut ke liye 70% chances hain, jabke 50 basis points ki rate cut ke liye 30% chances hain.

Is sab ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, EUR/USD ke technical outlook ko samajhna zaroori hai. Agar EUR/USD 1.1100 ke neeche rehta hai aur ECB ki rate cut expectations ko incorporate karta hai, to EUR/USD ke aur girne ke chances barh sakte hain. Lekin agar US CPI achanak kam nahi hota, to Federal Reserve ke monetary policy adjustments ka impact bhi EUR/USD ke price movement par zaroori hoga

۔ USD pair ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki US labor market ke ek aur weak report ne US currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, US dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai. Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - US trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.

EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new US inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon,
GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki ab thoda stronger nazar aa raha hai. Iska reason yeh hai ke candle supply area ko 1.3255 par penetrate nahi kar paayi. Iske alawa, Ichimoku indicator se bhi candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche hai, jo trend ko bearish banata hai. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade karte hain, wo sirf sell positions par focus karein. Aap take profit target ko nearest support 1.3070 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss ko nearest resistance 1.3268 par rakh sakte hain

Agar hum EUR/USD ko H4 timeframe par dekhein, to yeh lagta hai ke market mein bearish movements ka ghalba hai. Yeh dekhna interesting hai ke bearish movement ne MA 50 aur MA 100 ko tou break kar diya hai, aur ab MA 200 ke samnay hai jo ek dynamic support level ke tor par kaam karta hai. MA 200 yeh bhi determine karega ke trend ka rukh kahan hai. Agar EUR/USD aaj phir bearish movements ke qabzay mein aata hai, to MA 200 ko break karne ka chance ho sakta hai, jo yeh confirm karega ke bullish trend ka reversal hoke bearish trend start ho gaya hai.
Lekin agar market ko MA 200 par resistance ya rejection milta hai, to yeh dubara bullish trend mein jaane ka potential rakhta hai, ya phir ek significant bullish movement ko trigger kar sakta hai. Pichlay kuch dafa se humne bearish trend pattern dekha hai, jahan lower highs aur lower lows bante rahe hain. Is pattern ke madde nazar, mujhe lagta hai ke EUR/USD MA 200 ko break kar sakta hai, jo bearish direction ka ek strong indicator banega. Yeh bhi ek accha sell entry moment ban sakta hai, jab ek significant bearish movement MA 200 ko break karay. Meri technical analysis ke mutabiq, MA 200 par bullish movement ka response direction ka ek strong indicator hoga. Lekin meri prediction mein, mein zyada focus is baat par kar raha hoon ke jab MA 200 break hoga, to sell option zyada attractive lagega. Jab MA 200 ke neeche ek significant bearish movement hoti hai, to yeh trend reversal ka confirmation hoga, aur iske baad aur ziada bearish movement ka potential hoga, jisme bearish target 1.0949 ka horizontal support level ho sakta hai.

Sab se mumkina scenario yeh hai ke red moving average se rebound hoga, jiss ke baad bulls quotes ko 1.1091 level tak push karne ki koshish karen ge. Lekin, agar quotes neeche ki taraf move karte hain aur 1.1023 support level se neeche gir jate hain, to aik alternative scenario ban sakta hai jahan bears 1.0968 level ko target karen ge. Agar quotes 1.10 se neeche girte hain to yeh bears ke liye faida mand hoga kyun ke is se pair par kafi pressure barh sakta hai. EURUSD par hua, jo consistently pressure mein raha jab tak US market close nahi hui. Sawal ye hai ke kya yeh condition 19 September ko FOMC meeting tak barqarar rahegi? Agar price ki position dekhi jaye, tou pichlay ek maheenay se price Red EMA200 ke oopar barqarar hai, jo pichlay maheenay ke market reaction se mukhtalif hai, jab price ek se teen haftay ke andar hi bearish ho gaya tha. Aisi hi situation angle trading mein bhi dekhne ko mil sakti hai, kyunki agar pehlay banay gaye bearish candle ko left side ke bullish candle ke saath combine kiya jaye, tou yeh fakeout candles ka combination banay ga. Is haftay ka closing candle jo ke long upper wick dikhata hai, yeh bhi iss baat ka ishara hai ke 1.1200 ke oopar bullish move ka mauqa bohat limited hai. US interest rate cut se pehlay ke aglay do haftay mein, EURUSD market sideways phase mein daakhil hoga jisme bearish tendency hogi, aur target dynamic support Red EMA200 1.0950 tak girnay ka hai. Yeh area ab RBS (Support Become Resistance) ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar increase hota bhi hai, tou woh 1.1152 ke pehlay highest area tak limited hoga, jab tak H4 timeframe aur oopar solid buy momentum candlestick nahi banta. Teen moving averages ke beech ka faasla pehlay se zyada hai, isliye yeh increase apna mean reversion tak pohanch gaya hai aur direction reverse honay ka potential hai. Candlestick ki position upper Bollinger Bands se door hoti ja rahi hai aur ab yeh middle Bollinger Bands ke neeche close hui hai, jo bearish signal hai. MA5/MA10 High Daily tak correction ke baad, price ke lower Bollinger Bands tak girnay ka bohat zyada chance hai

EUR/USD pair ne Jumay ko ek aam harkat dikhayi. Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir U.S. session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, U.S. ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpret karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai.
Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. U.S. trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay.

**Monday ko kaise trade karein:**
Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai, aur U.S. ke macroeconomic data zyada tar disappoint hi karte hain.

Monday ko naye traders kisi bhi rukh mein movements expect kar sakte hain. Halanke downtrend ab bhi barqarar hai, lekin U.S. labor market ke haali data zyada tar disappointing thay.

Key levels jo 5M time frame par diqqat mein rakhne chahiye woh hain: 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1191, 1.1275-1.1292. Monday ko Eurozone ya U.S. mein koi ahem reports ya events scheduled nahi hain. Is liye, volatility phir se kam reh sakti hai, aur movements ziada tar flat ho sakti hain.

EUR/USD D1 Chart Analysis**
Dmitry, weekend mubarak! Agar meri samajh sahi hai, to aapka expectation hai ke price 1.1169 se niche jayegi. Mujhe nahi pata ke price itni high tak ja sakti hai ya nahi. Mera maanna hai ke hamari currency pair 1.1120–1.1140 tak upar ja sakti hai, jaisa ke maine pehle predict kiya tha. Maine 1.1120 se pending sale order place kiya tha. Ab, agreement thoda positive hai. Chuki lot choti hai, agar price significantly barh bhi jaye—jaise weekly maximum se upar—mujhe itna concern nahi hoga.

Asset ko reduce karna main idea hai. Main 1.0822 pe daily channel ka lower border par trade ko hold karunga. Maan leta hoon ke agar price channel ke lower edge tak girti hai, to yeh thodi movement dekhne ko milegi aur aur bhi choti ho sakti hai. Filhal, daily chart ka moving average green hai, jo buyers ko sellers se upar indicate karta hai. Lekin, moving average eventually sellers ki superiority ko highlight karne lagayegi.

Agar ek single sale breakeven stop par end hoti hai to theek hai. Lekin, maine kal EUR/USD ko 1.1108 se ek baar phir becha, aur is baar bhi zyada shorts breakeven par end hue. CME ne Friday, September 6 ke liye Volatility Range extend kiya hai aur dono non-farm payrolls aur unemployment ki preparation mein hai.

Technical indicators bhi is view ko support karte hain ke pair ek substantial move ke qareeb ho sakti hai. 4-hour chart fluctuation ko major support aur resistance levels ke beech dikhata hai, jahan pair mukhtalif liquidity zones aur fair value gaps (FVGs) se guzarti hai. Key levels jaise 1.1050 ke around multiple FVGs ki maujoodgi yeh suggest karti hai ke market abhi recent developments ke sath adjust ho rahi hai aur ek pronounced directional move ke liye tayaar ho sakti hai.

Technical factors ke sath-sath fundamental aspects bhi EUR/USD ke trajectory ko shape karne mein crucial role play karte hain. Eurozone aur U.S. mein recent developments ne market sentiment ko influence kiya hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne cautious stance rakha hai jab ke Federal Reserve ne zyada dovish stance adopt kiya hai. Monetary policy expectations ke is divergence ne current market dynamics ko contribute kiya hai, jahan euro ne zyada strength gain kiya hai amid a more accommodating Fed outlook.

Aage chal kar, EUR/USD pair ka behavior upcoming economic data aur geopolitical developments se influence hoga. Significant movement ka potential in factors ke interplay par depend karega. Agar pair key resistance 1.1100 ko break kar sakti hai aur is level ke upar sustain kar sakti hai, to yeh further upward movement ka signal ho sakta hai, jo 1.1200 ya usse upar test kar sakta hai. Conversely, agar support levels, khaaskar 1.1000, ke upar hold nahi karte, to deeper retracement ka indication mil sakta hai, aur lower levels jaise 1.0900 tak revisit hone ka possibility hai

EUR/USD ne 1.1100 ki support level ko clear karne ke baad losses extend kiye hain, aur ECB se 12 September ko 25 basis points ki rate cut ki umeed hai. Wall Street ne Monday ki session ko green me close kiya, jo ek upbeat risk appetite ka asar hai, aur is hafte US me inflation data ke release ki umeed hai. Dusri taraf, aksar analysts ka kehna hai ke ECB 25 basis points ki rate cut kar sakti hai.
BBH ke analysts ka kehna hai ke ECB apne cautious easing guidance ko barqarar rakhega, jo ke yeh hai ke "wo policy ko itna restrictive rakhega jitna zaroori ho" aur data par depend karega. ECB apni economic projections ko unveil karega, jo ke economic growth aur inflation ke downward revision ko shamil karegi. Money market traders ab tak is saal ke end tak 50 se 75 basis points ke cuts ko price in kar rahe hain.

Data ke hawale se, Eurozone economic docket me Tuesday ko German Inflation data aayega, aur Friday ko EU ka Industrial Production report release hoga. US front pe, New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations 3% threshold par anchored hain. Is hafte ke aage, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August ke 2% ke goal ki taraf dip karne ki umeed hai.

Agar CPI thoda kam hota hai, to Federal Reserve ke 50 basis points ke rate cut ka chance barh jayega. Warna, gradual adjustments to monetary policy pehle se price in hain. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 25 basis points ke rate cut ka chance 70% hai, jabke 50 basis points ke rate cut ka chance 30% hai.

Technical nazariya se, EUR/USD ka trend neutral se upward bias hai, lekin agar September 3 ke low 1.1026 ke neeche decisive break hota hai to downside ke liye aur door khul sakti hai. Key support levels, jaise ke 1.1000 mark, expose honge, jiske baad 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0958 tak pohncha ja sakta hai. Agar is level ka breach hota hai to pair 100 aur 200-DMAs ke confluence ko 1.0867/58 ke aas paas test kar sakta hai, aur phir August 1 ke swing low

EUR/USD Forecast: Kya recent rally barqarar rahegi?

Jab investors ne Fed ke aakhri meeting ke minutes ka mutala kiya, tou EUR/USD exchange rate ne ek upside opportunity dekhi aur mukhtasir tor par 1.0816 resistance level ko choo liya, jo ke 2019 se sabse ooncha level hai. Teen hafton baad, yeh Thursday ko trading ke aghaz par 1.0785 ke qareeb stabilize ho gaya. Fed ne apni taraf se, June 2024 mein federal funds target range ko 5.25%-5.50% par saatwain martaba barqarar rakha, jo ke expected tha.

US policymakers ka ye maanna hai ke interest rates ko cut karna na-munasib hoga jab tak ke unhe yeh yaqeen na ho jaye ke inflation 2% ke qareeb barqarar rahega. Bullet chart dikhata hai ke policymakers sirf is saal ek rate cut ki tawakku rakhte hain aur 2025 mein chaar rate cuts ki umeed hai. March mein, Fed ne 2024 mein teen baar aur 2025 mein teen baar interest rates cut kiye the.

Darhaqiqat, June ka initial estimate dikhata hai ke services inflation ab bhi high hai, aur core rate slow down nahi hua, jab ke headline inflation slow down hui hai. Dosri taraf, Eurozone ke producer prices May mein thode ziada gir gaye jitna expected tha, aur final PMI readings ne services sector aur private economy dono mein slowdown confirm kiya.

EUR/USD ek descending triangle mein trade kar raha tha pehle ke rising dikhaye, jo ke is chart pattern ke height ke barabar ek rise dikhata hai. Price pichle resistance level par gir gayi, jo ab support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai. Fibonacci Extension tool ke mutabiq following upside targets hain, aur pair ne 38.2% stretch ka tajurba kiya second psychological level 1.0750 par. Mazid bullish momentum ise 50% Fibonacci level 1.0762 tak ya 61.8% Fibonacci level tak push kar sakta hai, jo swing high 1.0775 ke saath coincide karta hai. 76.4% level 1.0790 par hai, aur full extension 1.0815 par hai.

Overall, 100 SMA abhi 200 SMA ke oopar cross hua hai, jo confirm karta hai ke rally strengthened hai na ke falling. Moving averages bhi triangle ke broken tip ke saath aligned hain, jo support ko mazid taqat deta hai. Magar, Stochastic Oscillator overbought region se neechay move kar raha hai, jo buyer fatigue aur possible selling pressure return ko dikhata hai. Oscillator ke paas abhi bhi neechay move karne ki kafi gunjaish hai seller fatigue reflect karne se pehle. Dusri taraf, RSI ke paas abhi bhi upar move karne ki gunjaish hai overbought region tak pohanchne se pehle, jo buyer fatigue ko dikhata hai aur rally ko jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai.

Is haftay ke aakhir mein, US non-farm payrolls report release hogi, jo June mein weak employment show karne ki tawakku hai. Agar aisa hota hai, tou dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai jab traders dobara federal government se monetary policy ko ease karne ki demand karte hain. Weak fundamental data, jaise ke labor force participation rate aur average hourly earnings bhi dollar ki direction ko affect kar sakte hain.

ستمبر 11 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

منگل کو، یورو کو قریب آنے والے یورپی مرکزی بینک کی شرح میں کمی اور اگست کے لیے جرمنی کے کنزیومر پرائس انڈیکس میں کمی سے دباؤ کا سامنا کرنا پڑا، جو 2.3% y/y سے گر کر 1.9% y/y پر آ گیا۔ مزید برآں، تیل کی قیمتوں میں 3.58 فیصد کی کمی ہوئی، اور اسٹاک انڈیکس ملے جلے بند ہوئے۔
آج، امریکہ سے توقع ہے کہ سی. پی. آئی. میں جولائی کے 2.9% y/y سے 2.6% y/y تک کمی واقع ہو گی۔ کل کی طرح یورو مزید کمزور ہو سکتا ہے۔



یومیہ چارٹ میں، قیمت گرین پرائس چینل لائن سے نیچے سمٹی ہوئی ہے۔ یہ اب اس لائن اور 1.1010 پر سپورٹ لیول کے درمیان ایک تنگ پچر میں ہے۔ دن اس سطح سے نیچے 1.0950 اور اس کے ساتھ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کو نشانہ بنانے کے ارادے کے اشارے کے طور پر بند ہو سکتا ہے۔ اصل ہدف 1.0888-1.0905 کی حد ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر منفی علاقے میں ہے اور اس کے پاس اوور سیلڈ زون میں جانے کے لیے کافی جگہ ہے۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، قیمت نے اپنی کمی کو سست کر دیا کیونکہ یہ 1.1010 سپورٹ لیول کے قریب پہنچی تھی۔ قیمت کو کسی اہم پیش رفت کی ضرورت نہیں ہے، کیونکہ زیادہ تر کام کل ہو گیا تھا۔ یورو سپورٹ کی سطح پر مستحکم ہو سکتا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

EUR/USD currency pair ne 2024 ke dauran kafi zyada ooncha chalne ka trend dekha hai, jo Federal Reserve (Fed) aur European Central Bank (ECB) ki monetary policy ke expectations mein tabdeeli ki wajah se hai. Saal ke shuru mein, yeh pair 1.0600-1.0700 ke support area ke aas-paas consolidate ho raha tha, jo ke ek bullish breakout ke liye zameen tayar kar raha tha jo March mein 1.0800 ke upar gaya. Yeh move ek sustained rally ka aaghaz bana, jahan pair ne 1.1000 ke aas-paas resistance paya aur phir recover karke 1.0900-1.1000 ke zone ko critical support bana diya. Euro ki taqat ko Fed rate cut ki speculations ne bhi barhawa diya, jahan market consensus September meeting mein 25 basis point ke reduction ki taraf lean kar raha hai. Halankeh US Dollar ko July ke PCE data se thoda support mila, overall sentiment ab bhi rate cut ke haq mein hai. Iske sath ECB ke potential policy changes, jo Eurozone ki economic concerns ko address karne ke liye rate cut ki discussions ko shamil karte hain, ne bhi EUR/USD ke trajectory ko influence kiya hai, jo pair ke exchange rate dynamics ko complex banata hai.
Ab EUR/USD currency pair ke price action ka jaiza lete hain. EUR/USD currency pair ne ek distinct downward correction phase mein enter kar gaya hai. Friday ka close khaas tha, kyunki price 1.1047 ke support level par settle hui. Jab market Monday raat ko khulega, to ek tug-of-war hai unke beech jo is horizontal line ko todne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur unke beech jo technical bounce upward trigger karna chahte hain. Monday ke shuruat mein market se door raho aur dekho kya 1.1047 ke support ka clear breakdown hota hai ya nahi. Agar breakdown hota hai, to pair aur neeche jaa sakti hai aur 1.0989 ke critical support level tak pahunch sakti hai, jahan buy positions ko strategically consider kiya ja sakta hai. Maine 1.1099 se 1.1054 tak sell karne ka tajwez diya tha, jo recent local low tha. Lekin, 1.1099 se 1.0999-1.1019 range tak zyada girawat ka tajwez nahi bana, jahan pair bearish channel ke lower edge ke kareeb hota

Time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain! Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake. Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de

EUR/USD Price Overview

Hamari guftagu ka mawad EUR/USD currency pair ke current pricing behavior ka tajziya hai. Mera tajwez hai ke EUR/USD ke liye sirf growth dekhne ko milegi, halankeh price filhaal pullback mein hai, jo ke itne lambay bullish run ke baad normal hai. Buyers ne price ko kaafi zyada push kiya hai. Target ab bhi maximum ke nazdeek hai, aur yeh wazeh nahi ke price kyun ek level par ruk gayi hai aur upar nahi chadh rahi. Lekin yeh current market situation ka tajziya karne se zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhta.

Short term mein, EUR/USD lagbhag 19 points gir sakta hai 200-period moving average ko test karne ke liye. Pullback uss point par khatam hone ki umeed hai, aur price phir se barhne lag sakti hai. Ideally, EUR/USD ko seedha upar ki taraf jana chahiye, bina downward correction ke minimum tak wapas aane ke. EUR/USD abhi tak apne local bottom tak nahi pahuncha. Hourly chart par, price dono Ichimoku cloud aur moving average ke niche hai, jo ke downtrend ke continuation ka signal de raha hai.

Support shayad 1.0939-0949 range par hoga, khaaskar agar 24 basis point interest rate cut ka expectation sahi sabit hota hai. Mahine ke aakhir tak, mujhe lagta hai ke pair 12-figure range tak pahunchegi. Jitni zyada girawat hogi, buying opportunities utni hi behtar hongi. Hourly aur four-hour charts par, price ab bhi Ichimoku cloud aur moving average ke niche hai, jo ke medium-term downward trend ke saath consistent hai. MACD indicator (12.26.8) niche ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ko confirm karta hai, jabke CCI indicator (9) bhi weakly oversold area mein niche ki taraf turn ho raha hai. Sabhi signs further decline ki taraf ishaara karte hain.

Agar price apne recent lows ko update nahi karti, to yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke buyers pause kar rahe hain. Ideally, European session isse clarify karega. Lekin, 1.1079 level ke aas-paas abhi bhi delay hai, jo hum shayad tab tak pahunchenge jab price kuch softer resistance levels ko clear karegi.