eur/usd

EUR/USD Ke Price Ki Tafseelat

Aaj ka tawajah EUR/USD currency pair ke price movement ka tajziya karne par hai. Jumma ko US session mein, euro ya dollar par koi ahem khabar nahi thi jo asar dalti thi. Kal, market ne apna jumma se rally jari rakhi, lekin aaj ek correction ke liye ruk gaya. Teh growth wave khatam hogaya aur ek correction phase mein dakhil hogaya. Fibonacci retracement grid ab maqbool ho gaya hai, jab wo 38th level pe gir gaya, 1.0919 tak pohanch kar, thoda neeche. Ye area naye buy trades ko mashwara dene ka moqa pesh karta hai jabke corrective drop stabilize karne ki koshish karta hai. Lagta hai ke Federal Reserve System ek emergency meeting nahi rakhayga bhi kuch experts is par shiddat se boht ki rahe hain. Kuch tajziyati nigraniyon ne ye bhi kaha ke ek emergency meeting 75 basis points rate ko kam kare, jo ke September ki meeting mein phir se 75 basis points reduction ho. Aaj, EUR/USD ki keemat thodi neeche chali gayi, Jumma ke tez increase ke baad kuch dozen points ko wapis lelia.





Chaar ghante ke chart par, quotes 1.0926 ke neeche gir gaye. Haan ke bulls ne kai attempts ki hain ke quotes ko is resistance level ke upar le jayen, lekin abhi tak unhe kamyabi hasil nahi hui. Ye kehta hai ke ek probable downward trend ka jari rakhne ke chances hain, jis mein blue moving average ke beech se guzar kar 1.0876 level ka nishaan bhi hai. Intehai sold conditions ko dikhate hue indicators, bearish trend-based direction mein kisi substantial pullback ka shiddat se khilaf hai. Ye saare technical aur fundamnetal factors is movement ko rok rahe hain. Is liye, medium term ke liye, hum 1.0926 level ka potential breakout umeed karte hain, jahan par bulls ab ek aur koshish karenge current local maximum 1.1007 ke paar jane ki.

EUR/USD H4 Euro - US Dollar. Chart par mutalia mein chune gaye asset mein ab ek wazeh bullish jazba nazar aa raha hai, jo Heiken Ashi candle indicator ka istemal karke aasani se pehchana ja sakta hai, jo ke qadri yani smooth aur average qeemat ke quotes ko numaya karta hai, mukhtalif traditional Japanese candles se. Heiken Ashi ka istemal technical analysis ke tajziya ka tareeqa bepanah asan banata hai aur sath hi trading ke faislay ki durusti ko bhi bohot behtar banata hai. TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator, jo Moving Average par mabni hui hali support aur resistance lines ko numaya karta hai, trading mein madad karti hai, currency pair ke movement ke mutabiq boundaries ko dikhakar. Aakhir mein signal filtering aur faislay ka amal karte waqt, RSI oscillator istemal kiya jata hai, jo asset ki overbought aur oversold zones ko dikhata hai.







Mutalia kya gaya instrument ke mojooda phase mein, yahaan par aik situation dekhi ja sakti hai jahan Heiken Ashi candles neela rang ka numaya kar rahe hain, jo uttarward price movement ko darust karti hai. Market quotes ne linear channel (red dashed line) ke neeche guzar gaye hain, lekin minimum point tak pohanche ke baad, wapas us se takra kar channel ke darmiyan ki line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf chale gaye. Filtration signal basement indicator RSI (14) bhi ek kharidne ki alaamat tasdeeq karta hai, jaisa ke long position ka intikhab karta hai - is ka curve ab upper ki taraf point kar raha hai aur overbought level se dur hai. Upar diye gaye sab ke madde nazar, sirf kharidne ki positionen ke laayak samjha jata hai, isliye hum ek long position khol rahe hain, umeed hai ke instrument upper channel boundary (blue dashed line) ki taraf chalega jo ke price level 1.10523 par maujood hai.

EUR/USD Currency Pair ka Tafteesh

EUR/USD currency pair, jo ke ab 1.0931 par trade ho raha hai, ek bearish trend ka aks dikhane laga hai. Is neeche ke harkat ke bawajood, qareeb upcoming mein ahem volatility ka intezar hai aur ek significant price shift ki mumkin taqreebat bhi hain. Is tafteesh mein in factors ka jayza liya gaya hai jo is tajziya ka shumaar hain aur EURO/USD pair ko mutassir karne wale baazari maahol ko muntashar kiya hai.

Mojooda Baazaar ki Shorat

EUR/USD ke bearish trend se yeh samjha jata hai ke euro mareez ho raha hai US dollar ke khilaf. Kuch factors is trend mein madadgar hote hain, jin mein interest rates, ma'ashi performance aur saqafati waqe'at shaamil hain. Ab, aam dunya ma'ashi dukhsho aur monetary policies mein tabdeeliyon, aur siyasi doranmon ki developments ke bohot uncertainties ka samna kar rahi hai.

Ma'ashi Isharaat

1.Interest Rates: Eurozone aur United States ke darmiyan interest rate muffle ek ahem factor hai. Federal Reserve ne inflation ka muqabla karne ke liye monetary policy mein izaafa kiya hai, jo higher interest rates ka seedha asar karta hai US mein. Ultee, European Central Bank (ECB) thora sa ihateeati raha hai, jo Eurozone mein ek relatively lower interest rate environment ko paida karta hai. Yeh farq investors ke liye US dollar ko zyada attractive banata hai, jis se EUR/USD pair par niche ki taraf dabaav paida hota hai.

2. Inflation: Dono regions mein inflation rates bhi ek ahem hissa ada karte hain. US ne zyada inflation ka samna kiya hai, jis ne Federal Reserve ko aggressive rate hikes par anaam dene ke liye majboor kiya hai. Mutashe khayal, Eurozone ke inflation mein khamoshi milti hai, jis ne monetary policies mein faasla paida kiya hai. Yeh farq euro ko US dollar ke khilaf aur mazboot bana deta hai.

3. Ma'ashi Performance: US aur Eurozone ke ma'ashi growth rates bhi ek ahem factor hain. US ka ma'ashi nizam taskeen dili, mazboot rozgar data aur barhti hui consumer spending ke saath numaya hai. Waqt ke sath, Eurozone ko masail ka samna hai jese ke energy supply disruptions aur taiz ma'ashi growth. Yeh farq euro ko US dollar ke muqable kamzor banata hai.

Saqafati Faisle

Saqafati waqe'at currencies ke markets ko sakht asar dalti hain. Ukraine mein silsila jari jung aur us ke Europe tak ke energy supplies par asar Eurozone mein ma'ashi uncertainties paida kar chuke hain. Yeh uncertainties investors mein risk se parhez ke liye le ja sakti hain, unhe safer assets jese US dollar ki taraf raghib kar sakti hain. Is ke ilawa, trade tensions aur policy changes EUR/USD pair mein volatility paida kar sakte hain.

Baazaar ki Jazbat aur Technical Analysis

Baazaar ki jazbat, jo traders aur investors ke future ma'ashi sara'at ke tabadlaat ke khayalat par mohtasib hote hain, currencies ki harkat par bhi asar dal sakti hai. Mojudi wakt mein euro ke liye jazbat bearish hain jo upar diye gaye factors ke silsile se. Technical analysis price movements ke mutalliq aur bhi wazeh deta hai. Key support aur resistance levels, moving averages, aur doosre technical indicators trends aur potential reversal points ko pehchanne mein madadgar hote hain.






Baray Harkat ki Mumkinat

Mojudi bearish trend ke bawajood, kuch factors yeh suggest karte hain ke EUR/USD pair ek notable volatility aur potential reversal ka samna kar sakta hai.

1. Policy Shift: Kisi bhi unexpected changes in monetary policy ECB ya Federal Reserve mein EUR/USD pair mein taze harkatian paida kar sakte hain. Misal ke tor par, agar ECB ek zyada hawkish stance adopt karta hai ya Federal Reserve rate hikes mein waqf signal deta hai, to euro dollar ke mukable mein mazboot ho sakta hai.

2. Economic Data Releases: Anay wale ma'ashi data releases, jese ke GDP growth rates, rozgar figures, aur inflation data, EUR/USD pair par bhi asar dal sakte hain. Eurozone se mukhtalif ma'ashi data investor ka itminan barha sakte hain, jo bearish trend ko palatne ka sabab ban sakta hai.

3. Saqafati Developments: Koi bhi hal ya musbat taqseem ya saqafati taqseem EUR/USD pair par asar dal sakti hai. Ukraine mein jung ka hal ya Europe tak energy supplies mein kisi numaindah policy change euro ke liye positive asar dale.

4. Technical Breakout: Technical nazar se, agar EUR/USD pair key resistance levels mein se guzar jata hai, to yeh ek rally ko trigger kar sakta hai. Traders in levels ko closely monitor karte hain, aur breakout euro par barhtey huye buying pressure ko le kar a sakta hai.

Ikhtitam

EUR/USD currency pair, jo ke ab 1.0931 par hai aur bearish trend mein hai, mukhtalif ma'ashi, saqafati, aur baazaar ki jazbat ke factors ka shikar hai. Jahan mojudi outlook bearish lagta hai, wahan potential for significant movement baaqi hai. Monetary policy changes, economic data releases, aur saqafati developments tamaam is trend mein mazid volatility aur potential reversal mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hain. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur aanay wale dino mein aane wale opportunities ke liye tayar rehna chahiye.

EUR/USD 1.0900 mark se bounce karta hai, USD ki modest strength ke bawajood red mein rehta hai

EUR/USD Wednesday ko dusre din bhi lower drift karta raha, jab se USD ki buying phir se shuru hui hai. Behtar-than-expected German Industrial Production data kuch aur losses ko limit karne mein madad karta hai.

Kuch factors USD ke upside ko cap karte hain aur bearish traders ke liye caution zaroori hai. EUR/USD pair dusre din bhi selling pressure mein hai, lekin early European session ke doran 1.0900 mark ke upar barqarar hai. Yeh downtick US Dollar (USD) buying ki wajah se hai, lekin fundamental backdrop is week ke 1.1000 psychological mark ya seven-month peak se pullback ke extension ke liye caution zaroori hai.

US Treasury bond yields jo overnight advance pe base kar rahe hain, jo early June se sabse badi rise thi, USD ko further recover karne mein madad karti hai. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka Eurozone ke economic prospects ke bare mein downbeat view shared currency ko undermine karta hai aur EUR/USD pair pe downward pressure dalta hai. Lekin, upbeat German macro data spot prices ko kuch support deti hai aur further losses ko limit karne mein madad karti hai.

Destatis ke latest data ke mutabiq, Germany ka industrial sector June mein expansion ki taraf wapas aaya aur Eurozone ke top economy mein output 1.4% MoM se barh gaya, jab ke expected increase 1.0% tha aur May mein 2.5% drop register hua tha. Iske ilawa, global equity markets ke positive risk tone aur dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations USD ke upside ko cap karte hain. Yeh EUR/USD pair ke liye tailwind ke roop mein kaam karta hai aur aggressive bearish traders ke liye caution zaroori hai.

Relevant market-moving economic data ki kami ke bawajood, upar diye gaye fundamental backdrop ke madde nazar strong follow-through selling ka intezar karna prudent hoga, yeh confirm karne ke liye ki spot prices ne near term mein top out kiya hai. Technical perspective se, agar 1.0900 mark ke neeche sustained break aur acceptance dekha jata hai to yeh bearish traders ke liye key trigger ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair ke liye meaningful downside ka rasta khol sakta hai. Bulls, meanwhile, mid-1.0900s ke upar move ka intezar karenge fresh bets lagane se pehle.

**EUR/USD Price Move**

EUR/USD currency pair ke price action ka analysis aur discussion hamara mawzu hoga. Aaj, EUR/USD pair ek range mein trade kar raha hai. Chart dikhata hai ke pair ne 1.0909 support level ko test kiya aur ab 1.0924 par trade ho raha hai. CCI range ke beech mein move kar raha hai aur downward trend kar raha hai, jabke Awesome Oscillator (AO) ek buy signal indicate kar raha hai. Price peechle din ke trading range ke andar hai, jo ek ambiguous lekin thodi bearish outlook create kar raha hai. Yeh test likely support level 1.0834 ka hai. Aaj subah price decline ho rahi thi lekin 1.0892 tak pohanchne se pehle direction reverse ki aur upar move hone lagi. Yeh movement Head and Shoulders pattern ke head ki formation ko suggest karti hai, potential growth target 1.0950 par hai. Is level ko pohanchne par ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko neckline 1.0907 ki taraf move kar sake.

Aaj hum Germany mein industrial production volume ke hawale se subah news expect kar rahe hain, jo EUR/USD pair ko impact kar sakti hai. Is data ke base par forecast optimistic hai, imply karta hai ke bears ko 1.09 level ko break karne mein mushkil ho sakti hai. Warna, aaj significant news nahi hai, jo market movement ko flat rakhne ka imkaan hai. Price 1.09 se rebound hui hai aur ab 1.0929 ko test kar rahi hai, high probability ke sath ke yeh level break ho sakta hai, agar aaj nahi toh kal subah ki news par. Main anticipate karta hoon ke pair kal bhi isi price range 1.0949-1.09 ke andar rahega, jab tak koi geopolitical disruptions nahi hoti, jaise ke Iran ke Israel par potential strikes, jo market risk aversion ko drive kar sakti hai aur dollar ko strengthen kar sakti hai. Iran shayad 15th tak attacks ko hold kare, jo ek quiet week geopolitically suggest karta hai. Level 1.0834 ko abhi bhi consider karna zaroori hai, jo agle hafte play mein aa sakta hai agar U.S. inflation rise hoti hai.

EUR/USD pair ne khaas mazbooti dikhayi aur 1.0860 ke aas-paas bana raha. Ye harkat Euro ke US Dollar ke muqablay mein positive outlook ko zahir karti hai, jo mukhtalif economic factors aur market ki tawaqoat se mutasir hai. Federal Reserve ka key inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, June mein pichle saal ke muqablay mein 2.5% barh gaya. Ye izafa Fed ke liye ahm hai kyun ke ye aane wale monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes, ko asar andaz karta hai. Inflation measure ka izafa ongoing inflationary pressures ko zahir karta hai, jo Fed ko interest rates barqarar rakhne ya barhane ka raasta de sakta hai taake inflation ko control kiya ja sake. Halankeh Euro ki mojooda mazbooti ke bawajood, European Central Bank (ECB) ke dobaara rate cut ka khauf hai. Ye mumkin hai ke Euro par niche ki taraf pressure daal sakti hai. ECB ki monetary policy decisions Euro ki value ko doosri currencies ke muqablay mein seedha asar andaz karti hain. Agar ECB dovish stance apnata hai ya additional rate cuts ka ishara deta hai, to ye Euro ko kamzor kar sakta hai, jo Forex market mein uski performance ko mutasir karega.
Economic Data Releases: Eurozone se haali mein aayi data mixed economic performance ko dikhati hai, kuch sectors mein growth aur kuch mein challenges, khaaskar manufacturing mein. Us ke muqablay mein, US economy ne steady job growth aur consumer spending ke sath resilience dikhayi hai, jo US Dollar ko support karti hai.
Geopolitical Events:Jari geopolitical tensions, khaaskar trade relations aur international conflicts, currency movements par aham asar daalti hain. Eurozone mein stability aur doosri regions mein uncertainty Euro ko investors ke liye attractive bana sakti hai.
Central Bank Policies: ECB aur Fed ke darmiyan monetary policies ka farq ek critical factor hai. Fed ka inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates barhane ka rujhan ECB ke economy ko stimulate karne ke liye rate cuts ke potential se mukhtalif hai. Ye farq aksar EUR/USD exchange rate mein fluctuations ka sabab banta hai.

EUR/USD 1.0900 ke upar chadhte hue aur ise support ke tor par tasdiq karte, to phir 1.0950 (static level) next resistance ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai phir 1.1000 (psychological level, static level). Thursday ke US session mein pair ne aapna sarvottam star ko choo liya tha, jise 1.0900 tak pahunchate hue dekha gaya tha. Ek neeche ki correction ke baad pair ne European session mein Friday ko aaram se 1.0850 ke upar daka laga rakha.
US dollar ko zor ka samna tha soft US inflation data ki wajah se. Mahine ke hisab se, Consumer Price Index me 0.1 percent ki kami dikhai di, jabki core CPI sirf 0.1 percent barha over the same period. Dono hi readings market ke expectations se kam thi aur investors ko September mein Federal Reserve ke rate cut ki umeed jaari rakhi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ko policy rates ko September mein be change rakna ke chances 10 ke nichhe they. PICH day main, Producer Price Index data for June US economic docket mein shamil hai. Mahine ke hisab se, PPI ka 0.1 percent barhne ka tajaawur hai. Ek negative reading USD par aur dabaw dal sakti hai aur EUR/USD ko oopar le jane mein madad kar sakti hai. Dusri taraf, ek mazboot tajaawur maazbot dollar ke rivayton ke khilaf madadgar ho sakti hai, magar market ke reaction mein had maayat ho sakti hai.

EUR/USD pair apni izafati raftaar jari rakhta hua dekha gaya, jisay amreeki dollar ke kamzori ke asar se barhaya gaya hai. Dollar ki girawat mein tezi isliye aayi kyunki Federal Reserve ne agle saal mein interest dar mein kami ka ishara kiya hai, jisse saal ke ant tak rate barhane ke qarar mein rukawat ka ishara mila. Is afraad ne investors ko dollar se hatne par majboor kiya, jis ne currency ki qeemat ko nichayi ki taraf mutasir kiya.
Aaj ka aham waqiya Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki meeting hai jo 02:00 WIB ke qareeb munaqid hai, jis ka amreeki dollar ke raaste par bari asar hone ka imkan hai. Analysts aur traders dono is meeting ke natijay ko tawajjo se dekh rahe hain, kyun ke yeh jari raftaar ko mustamil kar sakta hai ya is par ulta asar bhi dal sakta hai.
Technically dekha jaye to EUR/USD pair ne 0.877 ke aham resistance level ko paar kar liya hai, jo ke pehle ke tasawwur se mukhalif hai jismein 0.800 supply zone ke andar retracement ki ummid thi. Yeh breakout izafi raftaar ki mazbooti ko zahir karta hai, jo mazeed munafa ke liye mumkinat ko ishara deta hai. Is upar ki raftar ko support karta hai Ichimoku Indicator, jis mein candlestick positions aam tor par Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen lines aur Kumo cloud ke ooper qaim hain. Jab tak yeh indicators dobara cross nahi karte, bullish stance aur buy position rakhna jari rakhna munasib hai.
EUR/USD ke daur mein keemat abhi 1.0986 aur 1.0806 ke darmiyan hai, jo saf-suthri raftar aur rukh ki zaroorat ko darsata hai. H4 timeframe par, ahem support level 1.0986 par aur resistance level 1.0806 par hai. Trade karne walon ko 1.0826 par neechay ki taraf dakhli aur 1.0856 par oopar ki taraf dakhli ke liye breakout ke mauqe par nazar rakhni chahiye. Jab tak koi tay-shuda harkat nahi hoti, is range ke andar trade karna aqalmandi ka tareeqa ho sakta hai. Kharidari ke mauqe 1.0986 ke qareeb ke support level par uthte hain, jabke farokht ke mauqe 1.0806 ke resistance level ke qareeb maqbool hote hain.
Haal hi mein dollar ko support mil sakta hai ADP data ki musbat asar se, jo keemati maamlay ko mazeed mushkil bana raha hai. Technical indicators jaise RSI, jis mein overbought ya neutral halat ho sakti hai, narrow trading range ki wajah se, jabke MACD mein momentum ki kami bhi zahir ho sakti hai. Trade karne walon ko range trading strategies ko ghor se mashwara dena chahiye, jaise ke agar keemat 1.0826 se oopar chali jaye to kharidari ki taraf dekha jaye aur agar 1.0986 se neeche gir jaye to farokht ka faisla kiya jaye. Anay wale maali data aur ahem shakhsiyaton jaise Powell ke izharat ka nazar rakhna bhi zaroori hai, kyun ke yeh jor ki tarah jodi ke harkat ko asar andaz ho saktay hain.

EUR/USD Analysis Aur Psychological Resistance Temporarily Broken

EUR/USD mein strong bullish momentum hai aur yeh psychological resistance 1.1000 ke qareeb pohanch raha hai, jo ke aakhri satt mahine ka sab se uncha level hai, jo ke weak US dollar ke support ki wajah se hai. Lekin, yeh utna khush nahi hai kyun ke is waqt analysis likhne ke dauran yeh 1.0955 ke qareeb wapas aa gaya hai. Iski gains ka zyada faida weak US dollar ne uthaya hai kyun ke investors ne disappointing US business data par react kiya hai jo ke recession ke dar ko barhata hai aur Federal Reserve se tez interest rate cut ki umeed ko barhata hai. US economy ke hawale se concerns ne Federal Reserve se umeed barhayi hai ke woh is saal teen martaba interest rates kam karay ga do martaba nahi. Iske ilawa, traders yeh expect kar rahe hain ke European Central Bank bhi is saal kam az kam do martaba interest rates cut karay ga, agla rate cut September mein expect kiya ja raha hai.

EUR/USD pair ne pichle Jumme ko 1.0% ki rise dekhi, jo ke ek strong signal hai ke pair bullish sentiment mein hai. Humein November 14, 2023 tak jana paray ga takay significant daily advance dekhi ja sakay. Us waqt, euro ne momentum move pe build kiya aur lagataar daily gains post kiye, aur hum yeh dekh rahe hain ke agle dinon mein bhi aisi price action aa sakti hai.






Reliable trading platform ke mutabiq, EUR/USD apne 200-day moving average (DMA) ke upar trade kar raha hai, aur is haftay ke forecast rules suggest karte hain ke yeh upward trend ko indicate karta hai. Isliye, kisi bhi weakness ko buying opportunity ke tor par dekha jata hai agle further gains se pehle. Yeh rally eventually 1.10 aur phir December 2023 ka high 1.1139 ko test kar sakti hai, lekin yeh peak pohanchne mein kuch hafte lag sakte hain.

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, EUR/USD exchange rate mein ek bullish turn hai, aur jaise ke maine pehle kaha, highest profit ke sath selling best trading strategy hai. Aur best sell ke liye highest psychological resistance level 1.1000 hai. Eurodollar ke price ka development aaj ke din US economy ke future prospects pe depend karta hai. Dusri taraf, daily chart ke performance se judge karte hue, support level 1.0820 important rahega bears ke control mein wapas anay ke liye.

EUR/USD ka D1 period chart dobara dekhte hain. Friday aur Monday ko do significant jumps dekhi gayi hain, aur price ne pichle aadhe mahine ka decline level out kar diya. Sabse zaroori cheez yeh hai ke price ne 2024 ka maximum 1.0978 update kiya hai jo potential sales zone hai. Resistance level 1.0942 ka bhi false breakout hua tha. Yeh level kuch waqt ke liye support ban gaya tha, jo chote periods par dikhai deta hai, lekin yeh level tod diya gaya aur phir se resistance ban gaya, jo mirror level par growth ke edge pe sell signal hai.

Price ascending channel ke andar move kar rahi hai aur abhi haal hi mein uske top ko storm kiya hai. Wave structure apne order ko upwards banana shuru kar chuki hai. MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein grow kar raha hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai. Agar Fibonacci target grid ko pehli wave par impose kiya jaye, toh potential growth target - level 161.8 dikhai deta hai. Lekin abhi hum wahan tak nahi jayenge, MACD aur CCI indicators bearish divergence show kar rahe hain - jo ek strong sell signal hai. Aur CCI upper overheating zone se neeche ja raha hai, jo khud mein bhi ek sell signal hai.

Is waqt yahan upar se buy karna theek nahi hoga, agar aap sell nahi karna chahte toh bhi aapko rollback ka intezar karna padega taki ek theek jagah se nayi growth potentially shuru ho sake. Abhi tak yeh situation nahi hai, aur US dollar market mein priority ban gaya hai, jo uske strengthening ki taraf ek stable trend show kar raha hai.

Theoretically, price ascending channel ke bottom tak ja sakti hai, lekin yeh long period chart hone ki wajah se main itna door plan nahi karta. Lekin support level 1.0863 tak jaana mumkin hai, shayad last two lows par banayi gayi ascending line tak bhi. Filhaal price wahan nahi ja rahi, lekin yeh sirf naye buyers ko niche drag karne ke liye ek pull hai.

EUR/USD

Subah bakhair. Kal, sellers Euro par apne aadhe positions ko hold karne mein nakam rahe, lekin aaj wo price ko further neeche le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Girawat ko continue karne ka qareebi target is waqt 1.09029 ka level hai. Agar isko break karne aur consolidate karne mein kaamyab hote hain, to agla target 1.08919 hoga. Agar is par bhi consolidation hoti hai, to seedha raasta 1.07764 ki taraf khul jayega. Agar buyers nayi wave ko local maximum 1.10081 ki taraf le jaana chahte hain, to unhe 1.09342 ka level break karna aur uske piche consolidate karna hoga.

Pair EURUSD H4:

1- 4-hour chart par Euro bands ke central area mein hai, aur bands khud andar ki taraf tuck ho rahe hain. Yahan se movement kisi bhi direction mein jaari reh sakti hai, aur price ke rise ya fall hone ke liye quality signal lene ke liye, upper ya lower band ke beyond active exit ka wait karna zaroori hai, aur phir dekhna padega ke bands outward open hoti hain ya nahi. Agar hum fractals se dekhein, to price ke fall ka target nearest fractal downwards hai, uska breakout aur consolidation price ko August 5 ke fractal 1.08919 ki taraf le jaane ki ijazat dega. Nearest fractal upwards ab tak form nahi hua hai, aur price growth ke direction mein rely karne ke liye iske appear hone ka wait karna zaroori hai.

2- AO indicator positive zone mein damping form karna jaari rakhta hai, jo price ke fall ka signal force mein rakhta hai. Agle kuch dinon mein agar zero ka transition aur negative area mein active increase dekhne ko milta hai, to price fall ka zyada strong signal milega. Positive zone mein nayi increase Euro ke grow hone ka signal degi.

Buyers ne Tuesday se 1.1000 - 1.0990 ki resistance area ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami dikhayi hai aur aaj tak girawat ka silsila jari hai. Magar, aam taur par, price ka structure ek bullish pattern mein hai, kyunke daily candlestick movement EMA50 aur EMA200 ke upar hai, lekin price aur 50 aur 200 moving average lines ke darmiyan faasla itna hai ke mean reversion ka potential ban sakta hai, jo ke faasle ke barhne ke wajah se reversal ko dikhata hai. Yeh trend reversal ko correction ya retracement ke taur par samjha ja sakta hai agle support ki taraf, EURUSD ke context mein, price ke girne ki potential hai daily Bollinger Bands ke middle area tak.

Yeh potential decline H4 chart par wazeh hai, kyunke price quotation aakhri kuch ghanton se Middle BB ke neeche hai, yeh ek early indication hai ke girawat Lower BB tak pohnch sakti hai is hafte ke trading ke dauran. Aise conditions mein, traders sell trading option choose kar sakte hain, profit target ke sath red EMA200 dynamic support area mein jo ke price 1.0845 - 1.0830 ke aas paas hai, alternative target 1.0777 ke aas paas hai, agar is process mein yellow rectangle support area ko penetrate kar diya jaye.

H1 par movement dekhte huye, aaj subah price abhi bhi blue pivot area 1.0940 - 1.0930 mein open thi, lekin buyers ko survive karne mein nakami mili aur kamzori jari hai, aur ab sellers ko yellow rectangle 1.0900 ko penetrate karne ka challenge hai jo ke ek significant support hai, kyunke agar yeh takra gaya, toh price movement 161.8% fibonacci retracement area tak pohnch sakti hai jo ke green rectangle 1.0860 ke aas paas hai, aur consistent selling action girawat ko 261.8% area tak 1.0800 tak continue kar sakti hai, kyunke is area mein fresh demand hai jo pehle kabhi touch nahi hui.

Magar, agar sellers yellow rectangle 1.0900 ko penetrate karne mein nakam ho jate hain, toh yeh previous H4 timeframe mein banay huye bullish trend ke continuation ko trigger kar sakta hai. Toh traders ko is area ka khayal rakhna chahiye kyunke yeh pivotal hai. Is analysis ki madad se, maine following trading plan banaya hai.

Maujooda waqt mein currency pair bullish momentum dikha raha hai aur ek ascending channel ke andar trade kar raha hai. Jab tak upward trend barqarar hai, lekin pair ko kuch significant resistance levels ka saamna hai jo aage ke faidaat ko rok sakte hain. Haal hi mein aye economic data aur central bank ke comments ne naye variables introduce kiye hain jo market sentiment aur pair ki overall trajectory ko influence kar rahe hain.

**Ascending Channel aur Resistance Levels:**

Technical taur par, pair ek upward-sloping channel ke andar confined hai, jo bullish bias ko suggest karta hai. Turant resistance channel ke upper boundary ke aas-paas 1.0965 ke aas-paas expected hai, aur ek zyada formidable barrier psychologically significant 1.1000 level par hai. Agar 1.0950 ke upar decisive breakout hota hai to yeh rally ko 4-month high 1.1010 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Dousri taraf, agar channel ke lower boundary, jo filhal 1.0850 ke aas-paas hai, ke neeche breach hota hai, to yeh bullish trend ka potential reversal signal kar sakta hai. 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.0877 par hai, initial support provide karta hai, aur phir 1.0900 ka zyada critical level hai.

**Economic Headwinds aur Fed Policy:**

US labor market ke recent softening ne speculate karne ka mauka diya hai ke Federal Reserve rate cut jaldi kar sakta hai. Jabke Fed officials ne hawkish stance barqarar rakha hai, Chair Jerome Powell ne yeh acknowledge kiya hai ke agar economic conditions significantly deteriorate hoti hain to monetary policy ko adjust kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar US monetary policy ease hoti hai to US dollar par downward pressure aa sakta hai, jo EUR/USD pair ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai. Lekin, Fed ka final decision inflation aur economic data ke trajectory par depend karega.

**Bullish Momentum Indicators:**

Pair filhal bullish phase mein hai, jo technical indicators aur recent price action se support ho raha hai. Lekin, pair ko substantial resistance levels ka saamna hai, aur evolving economic landscape, khaaskar Federal Reserve ke stance, volatility introduce kar sakti hai. Traders ko dono technical aur fundamental factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake market ko effectively navigate kiya ja sake.

Currency pair kuch waqt se sideway trade kar rahi hai, jo ke economic indicators aur market sentiment ke behtareen combination ko reflect kar raha hai. Wednesday ki subah ke trading ke doran, pair 1.0916 ke around trade kar rahi thi, jo ke iske pehle ke peak se kafi girawat hai.

Euro ke liye Economic Headwinds:

Eurozone se recent economic data ne Euro ke prospects par saaya dal diya hai. Jab ke retail sales ne May mein thodi growth dikhayi, core inflation rate ab bhi 2.9% saal dar saal ke level par majbooti se barqarar hai. Ye persistent inflationary pressure European Central Bank (ECB) ki monetary policy ke rukh par sawal uthata hai aur Euro par iska potential impact bhi barhata hai.

ECB ke agle rate cuts ke expectations ab kam ho gayi hain, kyunki disinflationary trends momentum lose karti nazar aa rahi hain. Is sentiment shift ne Euro par downward pressure daala hai, jab investors currency ki attractiveness ko ek kam accommodative monetary policy environment ke samne dobara assess kar rahe hain.

D1 Chart Technical Analysis: Aik Hifazati Nazariya

Pair daily chart par symmetrical triangle pattern ke andar consolidate kar rahi hai. Ye formation aam tor par low volatility aur market participants ke darmiyan indecision ko indicate karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab 60 ke aas-paas hai jo ke overbought territory ko darshata hai, aur correction ka imkaan barhata hai.

Lekin, currency pair dono 20-day aur 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ke saath 200-day EMA ko bhi cross kar chuki hai, jo ke overall trend ke potential strengthening ko suggest karta hai. Agar symmetrical triangle pattern ke upar decisive break hota hai, to ek bullish rally shuru ho sakti hai, lekin tab tak ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

EUR/USD 1.0900 ke mark se upar aata hai, lekin USD ki halki taqat ke bawajood laal rang mein rehta hai.

EUR/USD dusre din ke liye kam hota raha hai Wednesday ko, jab ke USD ki kharidari mein izafa dekha gaya. Behtareen German Industrial Production data ne kisi bhi zyada nuqsan ko rokne mein madad ki.

USD ke upside ko rokne ke liye mukhtalif factors hain, aur bearish traders ke liye ehtiyaat zaroori hai. EUR/USD jo dusre din bhi bechne ke pressure mein hai, lekin European session ke shuruat mein 1.0900 ke mark ke upar bana hua hai. Yeh kam honay ka sabab USD ki kharidari hai, lekin buniyadi pehluon ki wajah se ehtiyaat zaroori hai, khaskar is hafte ke 1.1000 ke psychological mark se girawat ko dekhte hue.

US Treasury bond yields ka izafa hua hai, jo unka sabse bara izafa hai June ke shuruat se, aur USD ko apne sabse kam level se recover karne mein madad de raha hai. Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ke Eurozone ke economic prospects ke bare mein naysh apna nazariya bhi EUR ko kamzor kar raha hai aur EUR/USD par niche ki taraf pressure daal raha hai. Lekin, Germany ke ache macro data kuch madad faraham karte hain aur nuqsan ko rokne mein madad karte hain.

Destatis ke zariye aakhri data ne dikhaya ke Germany ka industrial sector June mein phir se expansion ki taraf wapas aaya aur Eurozone ke top economy ka output 1.4% MoM barh gaya, jab ke expect 1.0% ka izafa aur May mein 2.5% ka girawat dekha gaya. Is ke ilawa, global equity markets mein positive risk tone aur dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) ke expectations bhi safe-haven buck ke upside ko rok rahe hain. Yeh EUR/USD ko kuch madad faraham karta hai aur aggressive bearish traders ke liye ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

Agar kisi relevant economic data ki kami hai, toh yeh buniyadi pehluon ke madde nazar, yeh ehtiyaat karna zaroori hai ke strong follow-through selling ka intezar karen, taake confirm kiya ja sake ke spot prices ne near term mein top out kar liya hai. Technical nazariye se, agar 1.0900 mark ke neeche sustained break aur acceptance hoti hai, toh yeh bearish traders ke liye ek key trigger ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD ke liye kuch meaningful downside ka rasta khol sakta hai. Bulls is ke bawajood mid-1.0900s ke aage move ka intezar kar sakte hain, taake naye bets lagaye ja sakein.

Heiken Ashi candles aur TMA (Triangular Moving Average) aur RSI indicators ke signals ke combination ke saath, selected currency pair/instrument ke liye market bullish sentiment dikha rahi hai. Heiken Ashi candles, aam Japanese candles ke mukable mein, zyada smooth aur averaged price values dikhati hain, jo technical analysis ko asaan bana deti hai aur trading decision-making ki accuracy ko barhati hai. TMA channel indicator (red, blue aur yellow lines) support aur resistance lines ko moving average ke do bar draw karke banata hai aur instrument ke actual movement ke boundaries ko clearly dikhata hai. Heiken Ashi ke sath achi results ke liye ek additional filter ke taur par, basic RSI indicator use karte hain.

Friday ke growth ke saath, priority ab bhi instrument ko buy karne ki hai. Aaj ek downward correction 1.0892 tak ho chuka hai, jabke local high 1.0940 par update hua. Main progressive growth ke continuation ka intezar kar raha hoon jo round resistance level 1.1000 tak pahuche. Is level se, pehli touch par selling ki possibility dekh raha hoon, ummed hai ki significant pullback downward hoga.

Iske ilawa, main America se important economic data ke release ka bhi intezar kar raha hoon. Ye data market par significant impact daalti hain. Friday ke labor market data ke baad, Federal Reserve ke analysts rate cut ka prediction kar rahe hain, aur pehle se bhi zyada aggressive predictions hain. Aisa lagta hai ke American economy recently downturn ka samna kar rahi hai.

Hourly chart par sirf upward signal form ho raha hai, isliye humare paas is signal ko follow karne ke liye takreeban ek haftay aur das din hain. Hourly chart par south ki taraf signal tabhi banega agar pair support level 1.0804 ko break kare, aur filhal ke liye koi aur option nahi hai. M15 par likha hai ke agar 1.0840 ko break bhi kare, pair south ki taraf nahi jayegi, halanke M15 par signal hai, pair usse follow nahi karegi. Optimal correction 1.0870 tak ho sakta hai, shayad 1.0840 tak, aur reversal ke saath 1.0917 ko break karna aur 1.1020 tak increase dekhna, aur aaj ke din sab timeframes par upward signals hain, including daily chart, isliye upward impulse jo Friday se shuru hua hai, uska continuation dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Aaj pair 1.0965 ko break kar sakti hai, lekin 1.1020 tak aaj pahuchegi yeh kam lagta hai, shayad kal tak.