UsD/JpY

Assalam-o-Alaikum! Umeed hai ke aap sab ka din acha guzray aur aap ko achay munafa hoon! Iss waqt meri trading strategy, jo Heiken Ashi, TMA aur RSI indicators ka aik combination hai, yeh batati hai ke yeh behtareen waqt hai USD-JPY currency pair ko sell karne ka. System ke signals ke mutabiq, bears ne market ka rukh apni taraf mod liya hai, aur is liye ab sale karna zyada faidemand hai. Heiken Ashi candles, jo traditional Japanese candles ke muqable mein price quotes ko acha smooth aur average karti hain, humein reversal moments, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko waqt par dekhne mein madad deti hain.
TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator, jo moving averages ke zariye chart par current support aur resistance lines draw karta hai, trading mein bhi bohot madadgar hai. Yeh asset ke movement boundaries ko dikhata hai jo us waqt ke liye relevant hoti hain. Akhri decision lene ke liye aur signals ko filter karne ke liye RSI oscillator ka istemal hota hai, jo overbought aur oversold zones ko indicate karta hai. Mera ye khayal hai ke aise trading instruments ka istemal technical analysis ko behtareen banata hai aur market mein ghalat entry se bacha leta hai.

Is chart ko dekhte hue, hum dekh sakte hain ke iss period mein candles ka rang laal ho gaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ab bearish mood ko bullish mood par tarjeeh hasil hai. Is liye, hum market mein entry ke liye ek acha point talash kar sakte hain taake short deal ki ja sake. Price quotes ne linear channel ki upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya, lekin jab yeh apne lowest HIGH point tak pohonchi, to wahan se bounce kar ke central line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf wapas chali gayi.

Saath hi, RSI indicator (14) bhi sell signal ko approve karta hai, kyun ke uska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. In sab baaton ko dekhte hue, mera yeh natija hai ke ab sale karne ka moqa sabse behtareen hai, aur short deal open karna bilkul munasib hai. Main take profit ki umeed channel ki lower boundary (blue dotted line) ke aas paas kar raha hoon, jo ke 140.042 par hai. Jab order profit zone mein chala jaye, to position ko breakeven par le aana chahiye, kyun ke market aksar humari expectations ko false movements ke zariye disrupt kar deti hai.

Assalam-o-Alaikum! Umeed hai ke aap sab ka din acha guzray aur aap ko achay munafa hoon! Iss waqt meri trading strategy, jo Heiken Ashi, TMA aur RSI indicators ka aik combination hai, yeh batati hai ke yeh behtareen waqt hai USD-JPY currency pair ko sell karne ka. System ke signals ke mutabiq, bears ne market ka rukh apni taraf mod liya hai, aur is liye ab sale karna zyada faidemand hai. Heiken Ashi candles, jo traditional Japanese candles ke muqable mein price quotes ko acha smooth aur average karti hain, humein reversal moments, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko waqt par dekhne mein madad deti hain.

TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator, jo moving averages ke zariye chart par current support aur resistance lines draw karta hai, trading mein bhi bohot madadgar hai. Yeh asset ke movement boundaries ko dikhata hai jo us waqt ke liye relevant hoti hain. Akhri decision lene ke liye aur signals ko filter karne ke liye RSI oscillator ka istemal hota hai, jo overbought aur oversold zones ko indicate karta hai. Mera ye khayal hai ke aise trading instruments ka istemal technical analysis ko behtareen banata hai aur market mein ghalat entry se bacha leta hai.

Is chart ko dekhte hue, hum dekh sakte hain ke iss period mein candles ka rang laal ho gaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ab bearish mood ko bullish mood par tarjeeh hasil hai. Is liye, hum market mein entry ke liye ek acha point talash kar sakte hain taake short deal ki ja sake. Price quotes ne linear channel ki upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya, lekin jab yeh apne lowest HIGH point tak pohonchi, to wahan se bounce kar ke central line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf wapas chali gayi.

Saath hi, RSI indicator (14) bhi sell signal ko approve karta hai, kyun ke uska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. In sab baaton ko dekhte hue, mera yeh natija hai ke ab sale karne ka moqa sabse behtareen hai, aur short deal open karna bilkul munasib hai. Main take profit ki umeed channel ki lower boundary (blue dotted line) ke aas paas kar raha hoon, jo ke 140.042 par hai. Jab order profit zone mein chala jaye, to position ko breakeven par le aana chahiye, kyun ke market aksar humari expectations ko false movements ke zariye

### **4-Hour Chart Analysis**

4-ghante ke chart par, qeemat aik sell zone mein trade kar rahi hai, kyunke yeh bearish price channels mein hai aur weekly pivot level se niche trade kar rahi hai. Pehlay, qeemat gir gayi aur weekly support level 139.48 tak pohanch gayi, jo channels ke lower line ke kareeb hai. Is wajah se qeemat ne upar ki taraf rebound kiya aur channels ke upper line aur weekly pivot level tak pohanch gayi.

### **Resistance aur Decline**

Qeemat ne resistance ka samna kiya jo is waqt decline ko lead kar raha hai. Niche ke price trend ke continued hone ka expectation hai aur qeemat ka 139.48 ke support level tak phir se pohanchna mumkin hai.

### **Economic Factors: USD/JPY Exchange Rate**

Economic side se, USD/JPY exchange rate mein shiddat se girawat aayi hai kyunke investors US Federal Reserve ke upcoming interest rate decision ki intezar kar rahe hain. Haal ke economic figures ye darshati hain ke economy gir rahi hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ko US interest rates ko cut karne ki zaroorat banaata hai. Pehle maheene mein release hue economic data se yeh pata chala ke unemployment rate August mein 4% se upar stable raha aur economy ne 113,000 jobs create kiye.

### **Bank of Japan ki Interest Rate Decision**

USD/JPY exchange rate ke liye doosra bada catalyst Bank of Japan ka aane wala interest rate decision hoga jo Friday ko hai. Yeh decision us mahine ke baad aa raha hai jab bank ne is saal ke dusre martaba interest rates ko raise kar ke market ko hila diya tha. Economists ka kehna hai ke central bank is meeting mein wait-and-see approach apnaye ga, even jab inflation abhi bhi high hai.

### **Carry Trade ka Impact**

Bank of Japan aur US Federal Reserve ki decisions carry trade ke liye bohot ahmiyat rakhte hain. Carry trade ek aisi situation hoti hai jahan investors un countries se paise borrow karte hain jahan interest rates low hain aur invest karte hain un countries mein jahan high interest rates hain. Pehle, Japan mein paise borrow karna aur US mein invest karna bohot profitable hota tha kyunke Japan mein interest rates negative the. Lekin ab, Fed rates ko cut kar raha hai aur Bank of Japan relatively hawkish hai, is wajah se carry trade ki profitability kam ho gayi hai. Interest rate gap ab narrow ho gaya hai, jo carry trade ko unattractive bana raha hai.

### **Summary**

4-ghante ke chart aur economic factors ka analysis dekh kar, humein yeh samajh aata hai ke USD/JPY exchange rate mein bearish trend continue ho sakta hai. Weekly support level 139.48 tak phir se girne ka expectation hai, aur economic factors jese ke Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke interest rate decisions is trend ko affect kar sakte hain. Carry trade ka profit potential bhi interest rate changes ke saath change ho raha hai, jo market ke overall dynamics ko influence karta hai.

USD/JPY Mein Munafa Kamane Ki Salahiyat

Humari guftagu ka markaz hai USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ka live jaiza. Maine guzishta Thursday ko support level 141.79 se local trend line (green, sloping line) ki taraf ek bullish rebound ki umeed ki thi, jo "Hammer" reversal pattern ke banne ki wajah se tha. Is model ne ek bullish correction ka ishara diya tha, jo ek extended position lene ko munasib bana raha tha. Shuru mein price upar gayi, lekin baad mein aik sell-off ne 141.79 ka support tor diya, jis ne price ko neeche push karte hue lower support level 140.17 tak le aya. Yeh tab hua jab Stochastic indicator par ek bullish divergence tha. Maine "Hammer" pattern ke buniyad par ek counter-trend buying ki koshish ki. Agla potential target 139.01 ka psychological level hai, jo ke current volatility ko dekhte hue jaldi aasakta hai. Mein umeed karta hoon ke moving average ke ird gird ek maximum correction hoga, uske baad downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai.






Hourly chart par price ab bhi ek descending channel mein hai. Kal ke din pair neeche gira lekin channel ke lower boundary tak nahi pohoncha. Agle steps mein price ka girna jaari rahega aur lower boundary ka target lagbhag 139.74 hoga. Jab yeh level pohonch jaye ga, to ek potential reversal price ko dobara channel ki upper boundary, jo 142.18 ke qareeb hai, tak push kar sakta hai. Global support level jo ke daily chart mein 140.35 par dekhne ko milta hai, iske hold karne ke chances kam lagte hain. Hum ne ek double bottom pattern banaya hai, jo ke iss waqt se ek chhoti bullish correction ka ishara de raha hai. USD/JPY ke aggressive downtrend ki wajah se, jo US dollar ke devaluation aur Japanese yen ke mazid taqatwar hone ki wajah se hai, volatility kaafi high rahegi.

USD/JPY Price Action Ke Sath Trading Strategy

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke live price action ke jaiza par mabni hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo expected outcome tha, wo mukammal taur par mazid likely nahi hua. Is model mein proportion critical hoti hai. Mazeed, humein ek bearish Doji ka signal mila, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya hai. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke yeh dono apne targets ko agle hafte tak hasil karenge. Pehle case mein, maine 101 points ka decline anticipate kiya tha, spread ko nazarandaz karte hue, lekin ab bhi mujhe lagta hai ke trading instrument ko mazeed neeche jana hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ki buniyad par, mein expect karta hoon ke price 100th level 142.04 ke neeche break karegi, aur yeh scenario step by step 138.1 par 141.39 aur 161.7 par 140.82 tak khelega. Agar price channel ki upper boundary tak barh jaye to faida hoga, lekin mein intezar karunga ke ek tezi se upward move aaye, uske baad apni position adjust karunga.



Price test 143.56 par hua jab MACD indicator ne zero mark se neeche move karna shuru kiya, jo ke dollar ke downward trend ke hawale se selling ka correct entry point confirm karta hai jo ke guzishta mahino se dekhne mein aaya hai. Is ke natije mein, pair 60 pips se zyada neeche gir gaya. 142.90 par rebound ke waqt ki gayi purchases expected result nahi de saki. Kal Japan ke GDP mein kamzor growth aur bank lending volume mein kami ki khabron ne yen ke position par asar daala, jisse pair mein chhoti si recovery dekhne ko mili. Magar din ke dosray hissay mein pressure wapas aaya, jo is baat ka ishara tha ke dollar ko bechne walay mazeed achay aur munasib prices ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aaj ke Japan ke money supply aggregate ke report ne pair ko horizontal channel mein rakha, aur medium-term downward trend mein mazeed decline ke chances barkarar rakhein.






Intraday Strategy ke hawale se, mein scenarios No. 1 aur 2 ko implement karne par ziada rely karunga.

Buy Signal Scenario No. 1: Mein aaj USD/JPY ko 143.45 ke qareeb (chart par green line) entry point par khareedne ka irada rakhta hoon, aur target 144.01 (chart par thick green line) par set karunga. 144.01 par, mein long positions exit kar ke shorts opposite direction mein open karunga (expect karte hue 30-35 pips ka move opposite direction mein). Aaj pair ka izafa ek correction ka hissa ho sakta hai.

Important: Khareedne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se ooper ho aur apna ascent shuru kar raha ho.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY Mein Technical Analysis
Muqaddima
USD/JPY ka currency pair duniya ke most traded pairs mein se ek hai. Iska movement zyada tar US aur Japan ki economies aur unki monetary policies par depend karta hai. Japan ek export-driven economy hai, jab ke US ek global financial powerhouse hai. Iss waqt market kaafi dynamic hai, aur USD/JPY mein volatility kaafi dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Is analysis mein hum USD/JPY ka technical analysis karein gay, jo short-term aur long-term trends ko highlight karega.

Support aur Resistance Levels
Support aur resistance levels trading ke liye bohat zaroori indicators hain. Filhal, USD/JPY ka pehla support level 147.50 par hai. Agar price iss level se neeche break karti hai, to agla support 146.00 ke qareeb hai. Dusri taraf, resistance levels kaafi strong hain. Current resistance 148.50 aur 149.00 ke qareeb hai. Agar price 149.00 ka level breach karti hai, to market 150.00 tak ja sakta hai, jo ek psychological resistance banay ga.

Moving Averages ka Analysis
Moving averages ka use trend ke direction ko samajhne ke liye kiya jata hai. Abhi ke liye, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) price ke neeche hai, jo bullish trend ka indication hai. Saath hi, 200-day SMA bhi price ke neeche hai, jo ke long-term bullish sentiment ko confirm karta hai. Lekin agar price in moving averages ke neeche break karti hai, to downward trend start ho sakta hai. Yani, long-term traders ko moving averages pe focus rakhna hoga.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI ka indicator momentum measure karne ke liye use hota hai. Is waqt USD/JPY ka RSI 65 ke aas-paas chal raha hai, jo overbought condition ke qareeb hai. Agar RSI 70 ko cross karta hai, to yeh signal ho ga ke market mein short-term correction aasakta hai. Isliye, agar RSI neeche aata hai, to yeh buying ka acha mauqa ho sakta hai, magar overbought levels se dur rehna chahiye.

Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement levels ka use potential reversal points ka pata lagane ke liye hota hai. USD/JPY mein 38.2% retracement level 147.30 par hai, jo ek strong support ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar price wahan se bounce karti hai, to next upside target 149.00 ke qareeb hoga. Fibonacci levels trading mein key role ada karte hain, aur inka analysis market mein entry aur exit points decide karne mein madadgar hota hai.

Conclusion
USD/JPY mein overall trend bullish lag raha hai, lekin overbought conditions aur key resistance levels ko dekhte hue short-term mein price consolidate kar sakti hai. Long-term traders ko support levels par dhyan rakhna chahiye, kyun ke agar price in levels ko hold karti hai, to upward movement ka imkaan barh jata hai. Market mein economic data aur US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki policies ko closely monitor karna trading decisions ke liye zaroori hoga.

USD/JPY H4 Market Analysis

Good afternoon,

Aaj subah jab market khuli, maine dekha ke USD/JPY pair kuch ghanton tak 140.26 par lower raha, jaisay traders ko yeh bataya ja raha ho ke Asian session mein market quiet thi, aur koi wazeh sign nahi tha ke market kis taraf ja rahi hai. Market mein volatility kam thi. Agar hum 4-hour time frame par dekhein, toh candlestick phir se 100 Simple Moving Average line se break kar gaya hai, kyun ke pichlay hafte sellers ka control tha.

Monthly time frame mein, price 139.97 area tak pohanch gayi hai. Yeh area ek baar phir se bullish ya bearish trend ke continuation ke liye ek aham zone ho sakta hai. Short-term trading mein, pichlay hafte downside ziada dominant thi, aur bara time frame mein market abhi bhi bearish lag rahi hai. Stochastic indicator ka signal line 20-zone mein abhi bhi stable downward movement show kar raha hai. Ab ke liye, conditions ke madde nazar lagta hai ke price mein mazeed girawat aasakti hai, jo ke pichlay hafte ke trend ke mutabiq ek aham concern ho sakti hai.

Agar hum is mahine ke shuru se le kar ab tak ke market trend ko dekhein, jo ke neeche ja raha hai, toh mujhe khud ek mauqa nazar aata hai ke yeh Downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Haalati surat mein, mazeed decline ka imkaan hai, jo ke guzishta hafte ke trend ke mutabiq ek bara concern ho sakta hai. Pichlay kuch dino ke trend ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke Downtrend ka silsila jari rehne ka acha chance hai. Sellers shayad USD/JPY price ko 139.16 area tak le kar aana chahte hain.

USD/JPY H4 Market Analysis

Is waqt USD/JPY pair 143.01 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, aur current trend bearish side ki taraf ja raha hai. Market dheere dheere move kar rahi hai, consolidation ke signs dikha rahi hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke agle kuch dino mein ek bara movement aa sakta hai. Kai factors yeh suggest karte hain ke ek substantial price movement horizon par ho sakti hai, jisme technical indicators aur fundamental factors dono potential volatility ki taraf ishara karte hain.

Current Market Trend
Jaise ke dekha gaya hai, USD/JPY abhi bearish trend mein hai, jo kai factors ke wajah se drive ho raha hai, jaise Bank of Japan ka hawkish stance aur US dollar ke hawale se broader market sentiment. Global currency market mein US dollar ki strength ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair selling pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Iska ek bada sabab Bank of Japan ka interest rates aur inflation control par ziada aggressive tone hai, jo ke Japanese yen ko mazid mazbooti de raha hai. Doosri taraf, US se aane wale economic data, jaise inflation figures aur employment data, ne bhi pair ke movement par asar dala hai.

Technical Analysis
Technical analysis ke lehaz se, USD/JPY abhi bhi key moving averages ke neeche hai, khaaskar H4 aur daily timeframes par, jo bearish bias ka ishara karte hain. 50-day moving average abhi bhi neeche ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo yeh batata hai ke bears abhi market mein control mein hain. Stochastic indicator bhi oversold conditions dikha raha hai, jo ke short-term mein ek potential rebound ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai, lekin yeh broader bearish trend ko eliminate nahi karta.

Pair abhi ek crucial support level ke kareeb trade kar raha hai jo 142.80-143.00 zone ke aas paas hai, aur yeh future price movements ke liye ek pivot point ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar price is level ko decisively break kar leti hai, toh hum aage aur girawat dekh sakte hain jo 140.50 ya shayad 140.00 tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar support hold kar jata hai aur reversal hoti hai, toh USD/JPY dobara 144.00-145.00 range tak chadh sakta hai.

Upcoming Economic Events
Fundamental factors ke lehaz se, market upcoming economic events par closely nazar rakhi hue hai, jo ke USD/JPY pair mein ek significant movement trigger kar sakte hain. Sabse aham event near term mein US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data hai, jo ke jaldi release hone wala hai. Yeh report US labor market ki health ka ek key indicator hota hai, aur iska US dollar ki strength par bara asar ho sakta hai. Agar NFP report expected se strong nikalti hai, toh yeh US dollar ko boost kar sakti hai aur USD/JPY pair ko upar le ja sakti hai, jabke weak report selling pressure ko mazeed barha sakti hai.

Iske ilawa, market Federal Reserve ki interest rate decision ka bhi intezaar kar raha hai. Yeh speculation hai ke Fed inflation aur employment data ke mutabiq ya toh rates ko hold karega ya slight adjustment karega. Agar Fed ka tone dovish hota hai, toh yeh US dollar ko kamzor kar sakta hai aur USD/JPY ko aur neeche push kar sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar Fed ek hawkish approach leta hai, toh yeh dollar ko support de sakta hai, jo ke pair mein reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai.






Bank of Japan’s Role
Japan ki taraf se, Bank of Japan ne inflation control ke hawale se ziada aggressive stance apna rakha hai, jisme Governor Kazuo Ueda ne hint diya hai ke agar inflation barh gayi toh wo rate hikes kar sakte hain. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report jo ke expected se zyada aayi hai, ne is speculation ko mazeed barha diya hai. Agar Bank of Japan aur tightening ki taraf ishara karti hai ya rate hike implement karti hai, toh yeh yen ko mazeed mazbooti de sakta hai aur USD/JPY pair ko aur neeche push kar sakta hai.

Conclusion
Halanke USD/JPY is waqt 143.01 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai aur bearish trend dikha rahi hai, lekin agle kuch dino mein ek bara movement aa sakta hai, jisme kai aham factors involve hain. Market likely volatile rahegi, jisme upcoming US economic data aur Federal Reserve decisions ka pivotal role hoga pair ke direction ko tay karne mein. Agar 142.80 ka support hold karta hai, toh hum ek rebound dekh sakte hain jo 144.00 tak ja sakta hai, lekin agar support break hota hai, toh pair mazeed 140.00 mark tak ja sakti hai.

Traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur key economic reports, khaaskar US NFP aur Federal Reserve meetings par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke yeh agla major move trigger karne ka sabab ban sakte hain. Proper risk management strategies ka istemal, jaise ke stop-loss orders aur technical aur fundamental developments par nazar, iss volatile period ko navigate karne mein zaroori hoga.

USD-JPY Currency Pair Analysis

Assalam-o-Alaikum aur forum ke tamaam members ko mubarak ho! Aaj mein apni trading situation ka tajziya share karna chahta hoon. Technical analysis ke liye mein ne Heikin Ashi indicator chart par lagaya hai. Heikin Ashi candles market noise ko smooth karne mein madadgar hoti hain, jisme price bars ka ek khaas tareeqa hota hai jo price chart mein delay ko kam karta hai. TMA (Triangular Moving Average) channel indicator support aur resistance lines ko draw karta hai, jo double-smoothed moving averages ka istemal karte hue market ke current channel ki boundaries dikhata hai.

Aur final oscillator jo trade ko filter karne mein madad deta hai, wo hai RSI (Relative Strength Index) standard settings ke sath. Yeh Heikin Ashi ke sath mil kar positive trading results hasil karne mein madad deta hai. Jab hum USD-JPY ke chart ka tajziya karte hain, toh humein nazar aata hai ke candles ka rang laal ho chuka hai, jo yeh batata hai ke is waqt sellers buyers se ziada strong hain aur price neeche ki taraf le ja rahe hain. Price ne channel ke upper boundary (blue dotted line) ko cross kiya hai aur wahan se bounce karke dobara middle line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf move kar rahi hai.

Is information ko dekh kar yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke abhi ke liye pair ko sell karna munafa bakhsh ho sakta hai. RSI oscillator bhi sell signal ko confirm karta hai, kyun ke iska curve neeche ki taraf ja raha hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. Upar di gayi information ko summarize karte hue, hum decide karte hain ke sell ki position leni chahiye aur entry points dhoondhne chahiye. Take profit ko market quotes ke neeche boundary (red dotted line) tak set karte hain, jiska price mark 0.83900 hai.

USD/JPY ka Fundamental Analysis

Jibun Bank Services PMI ki reports ke elaan ke baad, USD/JPY ka exchange rate mazeed barh raha hai USD ke muqable mein. Index ko pehle 54.0 par project kiya gaya tha, lekin August mein yeh 53.7 tak revise kiya gaya. Yeh baat zarur hai ke carrier business 7 mahine se barh raha hai, lekin recent data jo July ka tha, us mein koi khaas tabdeeli nahi aayi. US employment data, khaaskar August ke non-farm payrolls (NFP), ne dollar ki direction ko steer kiya. Yeh baat Fed ke rate cuts ke liye time aur scale ke hawale se bhi hints de sakti hai. Wednesday ko, USD/JPY takreeban 145.40 par trade ho raha tha. Daily chart ka analysis yeh dikhata hai ke market mein bearish trend chal raha hai kyun ke 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai.

Humari guftagu USD/JPY ke live pricing ka tajziya karti hai. Jab koi willing buyer se sell karta hai ya koi buyer apni position average karta hai, toh price movement hoti hai. Kuch specific levels par buyers ko opportunity nazar aati hai aur woh market mein enter karte hain. Jab price decline hoti hai, toh lagta hai ke stop-loss orders trigger ho rahe hain, jo key levels break karte hue price ko sharp neeche le jate hain. Yeh stops ziada sales ko shuru kar sakte hain, jo agle central buying zone tak continue karte hain. Bunyadi taur par expectation downward move ki hai, lekin hamesha yeh possibility hoti hai ke buyers price ko next resistance 142.39 tak push kar dein, aur shayad us se bhi ooper. Behtar hoga ke hum dekhain ke situation kis tarah unfold hoti hai, is se pehle ke koi agla prediction kiya jaye.





4-hour chart yeh dikhata hai ke downward momentum continue rahega, lekin yeh movement expected thi. Ideally, bearish push 141.694 ke low se correction ke foran baad aani chahiye thi. Mein daily charts ko observe kar raha hoon tamaam yen pairs ke liye, aur ab tak koi significant rebound nazar nahi aaya. Smaller time frames sirf entry points pinpoint karne mein madadgar hain, lekin broader outlook ab bhi downward movement ka hai. Ek local platform zarur bana hai, lekin agay mazeed targets hain. Yeh bhi dekhne wali baat hai ke negative NFP data ke bawajood dollar ne Friday ko strength dikhayi, lekin is pair par us ka zyada asar nahi pada, jo yen ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Mazeed, Japan ka GDP data bhi raat ko release hoga. Mera bias ab bhi Southern hai, lekin agar hum 146.64 se ooper chalay gaye, toh mein is level par selling opportunities ko dekh sakta hoon.

USD/JPY Analysis

Mujhe umeed thi ke last week Thursday ko support level 141.788 se ek bullish jump hoga aur price local trend line (green, sloping line) tak pohanch jayegi. Yeh trading idea "Hammer" reversal pattern ke formation par mabni tha jo ke candlestick level par bana tha. Yeh pattern bullish correction ka driver lag raha tha, aur yeh logical tha ke long position li jaye. Aur interesting baat yeh thi ke movement start bhi hui, lekin phir ek seller ne price ko neeche push kar diya, jisse support 141.788 toot gaya aur price neeche jaake 140.173 ka lower retest bhi kar gaya.

Yeh sab bullish divergence ke bawajood ho raha tha Stochastic indicator par. Lekin us waqt "Hammer" ka pattern tha, aur maine counter-trend purchase ka risk liya (jo baad mein long position se nikal diya gaya), lekin ab sawal yeh hai ke kya ab dobara long risk lena chahiye jab ke oscillators ke mutabiq pair oversold dikh raha hai? Mujhe yaqeen nahi.

Meri raaye mein, 140.80 ek bohot acha support level hai, aur yeh bhi mumkin hai ke bull yahan se apni upward movement resume kar le, jisse price 151.35 tak barh sakti hai. Lekin purchase karna khatarnaak ho sakta hai, kyun ke price neeche bhi ja sakti hai, support zone 138.04-139.43 tak. Is surat mein, southern scenario relevant hoga, lekin sale mein entry tabhi li ja sakti hai jab ek achi upward correction ho.

Neeche chart mein, maine yeh draw kiya hai ke main short transaction mein kahan entry lena chahta hoon aur price chart par kaise move karegi. Agar kuch plan ke mutabiq nahi hota, toh is surat mein main market mein entry nahi loonga!

UsD/JpY

Humari guftagu ab USD/JPY currency pair ke live price action par markooz hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo expected nateeja tha, wo poori tarah se sahi sabit nahi hua. Is model mein proportionality critical hoti hai. Is ke ilawa, humein aik signal bhi mila hai—ek bearish Doji, jise maine chart mein highlight kiya hai. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono signals apne targets ko agle haftay tak pohanchain ge. Pehle case mein, maine 101 points ki decline anticipate ki thi, spread ko nazar andaz karte hue, lekin ab bhi yeh lagta hai ke trading instrument ke paas aur bhi girne ki gunjaish hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq, main expect kar raha hoon ke price 100th level ke neechay 142.04 par break karegi, aur yeh scenario dheere dheere 138.1 par, 141.39 aur 161.7 par, 140.82 tak play out hoga. Agar growth channel ke upper boundary ki taraf hoti hai, to yeh beneficial hoga, lekin main apni position adjust karne se pehle ek sharp upward move ka intezaar karunga.
USD/JPY pair ne Tuesday ki European session ke aghaz mein ek halka sa uptrend dikhaya, aur trading qareeb 143.00 par ho rahi thi. Lekin strong bullish conviction ka faqat nahi tha, aur traders hesitate kar rahe the ke significant positions ko hold karen, jab tak ke US inflation data ka intezaar tha jo ke is haftay ke baad expected hai. Japanese Yen (JPY) downward pressure mein tha Japan ke second-quarter GDP mein ki gayi downward revisions ke baad, jabke US Dollar (USD) mein thoda bohat gain nazar aaya. Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke darmiyan monetary policies ka farq investors ko aggressive bullish bets lagane se rok raha tha, jis wajah se USD/JPY ka upside limited raha. Technical perspective se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair short-term downtrend mein hai, jaisa ke iski recent decline descending channel ke andar dikhayi de rahi hai. Oscillators ke deeply negative readings daily chart par negative outlook ko mazeed support karte hain, jo ke is baat ka ishara hai ke agar gains hote hain to woh limited honge. Agar pair 144.00 level se upar chali gayi to short-covering rally ka trigger mil sakta hai, jo ke pair ko 144.55 area tak le ja sakta hai. Lekin significant upward momentum tab tak unlikely hai jab tak pair 145.60 resistance level ko break kar ke 145.00 psychological mark ko wapas nahi le leti.

USD / JPY D1 Chart:



Meri tajziya mein pair ke liye sirf ek wazeh rukh upar ki taraf nazar ata hai kyunke keemat aik uth'te hue trend channel ke andar trade kar rahi hai. Channel ka nichla hadaf haal hi mein toot gaya tha, lekin us waqt koi ahem farokht volume nahi tha, jo ke mazboot bearish dabav ki kami ki nishani thi. Main umeed karta tha ke pair tootne ke baad 154.672 tak pohanchega, aur ye peshgoi saabit hui jab pair us darja tak pohanch gaya. Presidential elections ke baad keemat barhti rahi, range ke ooper hadaf ko torne ke baad barhne wale farokht volume ke saath support milti rahi. Pair ne thoda sa peechay hat kar range ke ooper hadaf tak pohancha lekin main yakeen rakhta hoon ke koi ahem kami sirf tab hogi agar range ka nichla hadaf toot gaya. Abhi ke liye, main umeed karta hoon ke pair apna upar ki taraf rukh jari rakhega agle resistance level 156.028 tak, farokht volume ke indicators ki tasdeeq ke intezar mein.
USD / JPY W1 Chart:



Jab haftawar time frame par USD/JPY ka tajziya karte hain, to hum us ke keemat ke harkat ka bara manzar hasil karte hain, jo ke mukhtalif saalon ke doran 2700 points ka aik numaya giravat zahir karta hai. Halankeh yeh fasla numaya ho sakta hai, lekin USD/JPY ke liye aise aik faslay ko cover karna mumkin hai. Haal hi mein, keemat ne aik neeche ki correction mein dakhil hui, 38.2% Fibonacci level tak wapas gayi. Us ke baad, 14.6% level tak wapas chali gayi, aik andaruni pattern banate hue jo mazeed kami ke potential ko ishara karta hai. Is pattern ke mabain, keemat 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ki taraf kami kar sakti hai, lagbhag 2700 points ke aas paas ke potential giravat ke saath milte hue. Chart par, hum dekhte hain ke keemat aik ahem level par rukawat ka samna kar rahi hai, jahan ek daily cluster hai. Ye ishara ho sakta hai ke pair aik mukhalif point ke qareeb hai, aur main umeed karta hoon ke USD/JPY jald hi ek correction ko neeche ki taraf mehsoos karega.