Aud/usd

AUD/USD Analysis


Jumeraat ke din spot price mein US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf ek pullback dekha gaya, jo kai iktisadi asraat ka nateeja tha. Shuruat mein, yeh pair kaafi umeed afza tha, Australia ke Reserve Bank (RBA) ke hawkish jazbaat aur China, jo Australia ka ahem trade partner hai, se aayi achi inflation data ki wajah se. Taaza update ke mutabiq, AUD/USD ka rate lagbhag 0.6814 par trade kar raha tha, jo forex market mein chalti hui volatility ko darshata hai.

Jese-jese investor ka rujhan riskier assets ki taraf shift ho raha hai, spot price ko in dynamics ka faida pohanch raha hai. China se aayi achi inflation data aur RBA ka mustaqbil ke liye stable outlook ne ek aisi surat-e-haal banai hai jahan investors zyada khatarnak currencies, jaise ke AUD, mein interest dikhate hain. Yeh sentiment market ki harkaat aur trading strategies ko influence karta hai, jo forex participants ke liye intehai ahem hai.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

Taaza iktisadi indicators ek mixed outlook pesh karte hain AUD ke liye. Khaaskar, China ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) July mein 0.5% barh gaya, jo February ke baad se sabse zyada izafa tha. Yeh afzaish khaas tor par ahem hai kyun ke yeh Producer Price Index ke girawat ke baraks hai, jo lagataar 22 months se contract ho raha hai, aur July mein 0.8% gira. Behtar CPI figures ne China mein sakht iktisadi mandi ke khauf ko kam kiya hai. Aur jab ke US mein mandi ka khauf kam ho raha hai, yeh surat-e-haal investor confidence ko barhawa de rahi hai aur USD ke safe-haven ki appeal ko kamzor kar rahi hai.

RBA ne faiz ki sharah ko barqarar rakha hai, aur monetary policy mein ehtiyaat se kaam lene ka irada zahir kiya hai. Bank ne yeh bhi kaha ke "koi bhi imkaan rad nahi kiya ja sakta," jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke woh inflation ke risks ke hawalay se hoshiar hain. Yeh ehtiyaat ka rawaya market ko yeh paigham deta hai ke RBA policy reversals ke liye jaldbazi nahi kar raha, jo AUD ki stability aur mustaqbil ke rujhan ke hawalay se perceptions ko asar andaz kar sakta hai.

Chaar-Ghantey ka Technical Outlook:

Pair recovery ke ache asaar dikha raha hai. Agar price 0.6840 ke level se upar break karta hai, toh yeh bullish continuation ko confirm karega aur target lagbhag 0.6870 ke aas-paas hoga, jo ke 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur 50-day SMA ke sath coincide karta hai. Yeh major moving averages mukhtasir muddat mein resistance ka kaam kar sakti hain, jo mazeed gains ko rok sakta hai.


Taaza price action chaar-ghantey ke chart par rising peaks aur troughs ka aik naya silsila zahir kar raha hai, jo AUD/USD ke liye ek short-term uptrend ka indication hai.


Mashhoor maqola "the trend is your friend" is baat ko wazeh karta hai ke is uptrend ke mazeed barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. August mein jo lows dekhe gaye, un se


recovery yeh zahir karti hai ke AUD/USD pair ne apna pehla downtrend reverse kar diya hai, aur yeh ab mazeed upward movement ke liye tayar hai.

AUD/USD Analysis
Jumeraat ke din spot price mein US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf ek pullback dekha gaya, jo kai iktisadi asraat ka nateeja tha. Shuruat mein, yeh pair kaafi umeed afza tha, Australia ke Reserve Bank (RBA) ke hawkish jazbaat aur China, jo Australia ka ahem trade partner hai, se aayi achi inflation data ki wajah se. Taaza update ke mutabiq, AUD/USD ka rate lagbhag 0.6814 par trade kar raha tha, jo forex market mein chalti hui volatility ko darshata hai.

Jese-jese investor ka rujhan riskier assets ki taraf shift ho raha hai, spot price ko in dynamics ka faida pohanch raha hai. China se aayi achi inflation data aur RBA ka mustaqbil ke liye stable outlook ne ek aisi surat-e-haal banai hai jahan investors zyada khatarnak currencies, jaise ke AUD, mein interest dikhate hain. Yeh sentiment market ki harkaat aur trading strategies ko influence karta hai, jo forex participants ke liye intehai ahem hai.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

Taaza iktisadi indicators ek mixed outlook pesh karte hain AUD ke liye. Khaaskar, China ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) July mein 0.5% barh gaya, jo February ke baad se sabse zyada izafa tha. Yeh afzaish khaas tor par ahem hai kyun ke yeh Producer Price Index ke girawat ke baraks hai, jo lagataar 22 months se contract ho raha hai, aur July mein 0.8% gira. Behtar CPI figures ne China mein sakht iktisadi mandi ke khauf ko kam kiya hai. Aur jab ke US mein mandi ka khauf kam ho raha hai, yeh surat-e-haal investor confidence ko barhawa de rahi hai aur USD ke safe-haven ki appeal ko kamzor kar rahi hai.

RBA ne faiz ki sharah ko barqarar rakha hai, aur monetary policy mein ehtiyaat se kaam lene ka irada zahir kiya hai. Bank ne yeh bhi kaha ke "koi bhi imkaan rad nahi kiya ja sakta," jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke woh inflation ke risks ke hawalay se hoshiar hain. Yeh ehtiyaat ka rawaya market ko yeh paigham deta hai ke RBA policy reversals ke liye jaldbazi nahi kar raha, jo AUD ki stability aur mustaqbil ke rujhan ke hawalay se perceptions ko asar andaz kar sakta hai.

Chaar-Ghantey ka Technical Outlook:

Pair recovery ke ache asaar dikha raha hai. Agar price 0.6840 ke level se upar break karta hai, toh yeh bullish continuation ko confirm karega aur target lagbhag 0.6870 ke aas-paas hoga, jo ke 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur 50-day SMA ke sath coincide karta hai. Yeh major moving averages mukhtasir muddat mein resistance ka kaam kar sakti hain, jo mazeed gains ko rok sakta hai.

Taaza price action chaar-ghantey ke chart par rising peaks aur troughs ka aik naya silsila zahir kar raha hai, jo AUD/USD ke liye ek short-term uptrend ka indication hai. Mashhoor maqola "the trend is your friend" is baat ko wazeh karta hai ke is uptrend ke mazeed barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. August mein jo lows dekhe gaye, un se recovery yeh zahir karti hai ke AUD/USD pair ne apna pehla downtrend reverse kar diya hai, aur yeh ab mazeed upward movement ke liye tayar hai.

AUD/USD

currency pair ko samajhne ke liye un factors ko samajhna zaroori hai jo iski movement ko influence karte hain. Abhi AUD/USD pair 0.6650 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai aur trend bearish nazar aa raha hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke market sentiment filhaal Australian dollar ke US dollar ke muqable mein girawat ko support kar raha hai. Bearish trend yeh dikhata hai ke Australian dollar US dollar ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. Iske peeche mukhtalif economic, political


ya market factors ho sakte hain. For example, agar Australian economy ko challenges ka samna hai, jaise ke commodity prices mein girawat, economic growth ka slow hona, ya political instability, to yeh AUD ko kamzor kar sakte hain. Isi tarah, agar US dollar mazboot ho raha hai


jaise ke mazboot economic indicators, Federal Reserve ke interest rate hikes, ya geopolitical factors ki wajah se, to yeh AUD/USD ke bearish trend ko mazid support de sakte hain.

Lekin, agle kuch dinon mein AUD/USD pair mein significant movement ki prediction karna thodi gehri analysis ka taqaza karta hai, jisme kuch catalysts ka zikar zaroori hai jo volatility ko drive kar sakte hain. Kuch factors jo is trend mein tabdeeli la sakte hain, woh yeh hain:

1. **Economic Data Releases**: Dono Australia aur US ke economic indicators, jaise employment reports, GDP growth, inflation rates, aur trade balances, AUD/USD pair par bara asar daal sakte hain. For example, agar US ka employment report strong aata hai ya Australia ka economic data weak hota hai, to yeh volatility ko barha sakta hai aur trend mein reversal la sakta hai.


2. **Central Bank Policies**: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aur Federal Reserve ke faislay AUD/USD pair ko influence karte hain. Agar RBA interest rates cut karta hai ya dovish stance leta hai, to AUD mazid kamzor ho sakta hai. Isi tarah, agar Federal Reserve hawkish stance signal karta hai ya interest rates ko barhata hai, to USD mazboot hoga aur pair ke movement

AUD/USD Ki Analysis – January 2025 Ke Baad

Wave Structure Ka Break Hona


January ka mahina guzar chuka hai, aur D1 period chart par downward wave structure ab tor chuka hai. Aakhri growth wave ne pichli wave ke maximum ko update kar diya hai. MACD indicator abhi bhi lower sales zone mein hai aur neeche ja raha hai. Pehle price ek steep descending channel mein neeche ja rahi thi, jo ziada der tak qaim nahi reh sakti thi. Isi wajah se iska breakout upar ki taraf expected tha, jo keh ho gaya.
Price Movement aur Resistance Levels


January ke shuru mein price thodi der ke liye upar gai, magar descending channel ki upper boundary ek mazboot rukawat sabit hui. Price is boundary ko tod nahi saki aur wapis neeche gir gayi, hatta ke pichle low ko bhi tor diya. Jab naya bottom bana, toh MACD aur CCI indicators par bullish divergence form hui. Is divergence ke baad corrective growth expected thi, jo keh waqai hui.

Price ne decline ke edge par ek mirror level form kiya. Pehle resistance level 0.6184 tha, magar ab yeh support ban gaya. Jab price ne is level ka test kiya, toh woh wapis upar gai aur descending channel tod diya. Agar hum Fibonacci correction grid lagayen, toh dekhein ge ke price level 23.6 tak pahunchi. Lekin wahan se price neeche daba di gayi.
Support aur Resistance Zones


Mujhe lag raha tha ke 0.6253 ka support level price ko upar jaye ka sahara dega, lekin market ne is level ko neeche tod diya. Ab price neeche se is support level ka test kar rahi hai. Aisa lag raha hai ke price neeche giray gi, magar neeche ek aur mazboot level 0.6184 hai, jo correction ke start mein bana tha. Agar price is level ko todti hai, toh naya bottom ban sakta hai, jahan par MACD par bullish divergence develop hogi aur short-term buying ka ek acha mauqa mil sakta hai.

Agar price neeche na jaye aur 0.6253 ka breakout upar ki taraf ho, toh growth ka silsila Fibonacci correction ke 38.2 level tak barh sakta hai.
2025 Ka Analysis aur Future Expectations


Aane wale dino mein AUD/USD aur ziada girne ka imkaan hai. Immediate support levels 0.6270 aur 0.6170 ke qareeb hain, jahan buyers market mein aasakte hain. Lekin agar price upar pullback karti hai, toh traders ka pehla target 0.6440 ka resistance level hoga.

Sab se ziada resistance zone 0.6600 par hai, jo ke 50-week aur 100-week simple moving averages se banta hai. Technical indicators filhaal bearish trend ko support kar rahe hain, aur lagta hai ke AUD aur ziada downward pressure face karega.

Traders ko ab trade policy aur economic data releases par nazar rakhni hogi, kyunki yeh dono cheezein Australian dollar ki short-term aur medium-term direction ko tay karengi.

AUD/USD Ka Tajziya: Market Pressure Mein, Kia Girawat Jari Rahegi?

Aaj AUD/USD pair Asian session mein 0.6200 ke upar trade kar rahi hai, magar ab bhi pressure mein hai. Yeh pair takreeban do hafton ke low ke kareeb hai aur is girawat ki wajah US ke naye tariff threats, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke rate cut expectations, aur China ki slow economy hain.
Traders ab bhi US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo market ke liye naya direction tay karega.

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Technical Analysis: Kia Bears Ka Control Hai?

🔹 Key Support & Resistance Levels

• Support: Sabse pehla support level 0.6130 hai, jo 2025 ka lowest level hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, to price 0.6000 tak gir sakti hai.
• Resistance: Pehla resistance 0.6330 hai (year-to-date peak). Agla resistance 0.6549 hai, jo pichlay hafta ka highest level tha.

🔹 Momentum Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 45 se neeche hai, jo bearish momentum ka indication hai.
• Average Directional Index (ADX): 20 ke kareeb hai, jo ek weak trend ko show kar raha hai.

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Fundamental Factors: US Dollar Pressure, China Ki Slow Recovery

📉 US Dollar Pressure Mein Kyun Aaya?

• US Dollar Thursday ko selling pressure mein aaya, jiski wajah kamzor US economic data thi.
• Yeh AUD/USD ke liye temporary relief tha, lekin yeh rally zyada der tak sustain nahi hui.

📉 China Ki Weak Economic Data Ka Asar

• January Manufacturing PMI 49.1 tak gir gaya, jo contraction ka indication hai.
• Non-Manufacturing PMI sirf 50.2 pe hai, jo barely expansion zone mein hai.
• Yeh indicators yeh dikhate hain ke China ki economy abhi bhi struggle kar rahi hai, jo Australian exports ke liye negative hai.

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RBA Rate Cut Expectations: AUD/USD Ke Liye Negative Signal?

• Australian Inflation Data:
  • Q4 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2.5% tak gir gaya (pichlay quarter ka 2.8% tha).
  • Trimmed Mean CPI 3.2% tak gir gaya, jo teen saal ka lowest level hai.
• Rate Cut Possibility:
  • Markets February mein 25 bps ka rate cut fully price kar chuki hain.
  • Agar RBA rate cut confirm karti hai, to AUD/USD aur neeche gir sakta hai.

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Iron Ore Aur Copper Prices Ka Role

🔹 Iron Ore Prices:

• Yearly high pe pohonch gayi hain, jo AUD/USD ke liye ek positive factor hai.
• Lekin agar China ka demand kamzor raha, to iron ore prices wapas gir sakti hain.

🔹 Copper Prices:

• Thoda recover hui hain, lekin ab bhi weak sentiment hai.
• Copper prices ka girna bhi AUD/USD ke liye negative factor ho sakta hai.

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Final Verdict: Kia AUD/USD Aur Neeche Jaye Ga?

📌 Bearish Scenario (Agar Price Neeche Jaye)
✔ Agar price 0.6130 support break karti hai, to next target 0.6000 ho sakta hai.
✔ China ki weak recovery aur RBA rate cut ke expectations AUD/USD ko neeche le ja sakti hain.
📌 Bullish Scenario (Agar Price Upar Jaye)
✔ Agar price 0.6330 resistance todti hai, to next target 0.6549 ho sakta hai.
✔ US Dollar agar aur weak hota hai to AUD/USD temporary rally de sakta hai.
Lekin filhal AUD/USD ek bearish trend mein hai aur agar external pressures barqarar rehte hain, to price neeche girne ke chances zyada hain.
Happy Trading! 📉📊📈

AUD/USD Ki Analysis – January 2025 Ke Baad

Wave Structure Ka Break Hona


January ka mahina guzar chuka hai, aur D1 period chart par downward wave structure ab tor chuka hai. Aakhri growth wave ne pichli wave ke maximum ko update kar diya hai. MACD indicator abhi bhi lower sales zone mein hai aur neeche ja raha hai. Pehle price ek steep descending channel mein neeche ja rahi thi, jo ziada der tak qaim nahi reh sakti thi. Isi wajah se iska breakout upar ki taraf expected tha, jo keh ho gaya.
Price Movement aur Resistance Levels


January ke shuru mein price thodi der ke liye upar gai, magar descending channel ki upper boundary ek mazboot rukawat sabit hui. Price is boundary ko tod nahi saki aur wapis neeche gir gayi, hatta ke pichle low ko bhi tor diya. Jab naya bottom bana, toh MACD aur CCI indicators par bullish divergence form hui. Is divergence ke baad corrective growth expected thi, jo keh waqai hui.

Price ne decline ke edge par ek mirror level form kiya. Pehle resistance level 0.6184 tha, magar ab yeh support ban gaya. Jab price ne is level ka test kiya, toh woh wapis upar gai aur descending channel tod diya. Agar hum Fibonacci correction grid lagayen, toh dekhein ge ke price level 23.6 tak pahunchi. Lekin wahan se price neeche daba di gayi.
Support aur Resistance Zones


Mujhe lag raha tha ke 0.6253 ka support level price ko upar jaye ka sahara dega, lekin market ne is level ko neeche tod diya. Ab price neeche se is support level ka test kar rahi hai. Aisa lag raha hai ke price neeche giray gi, magar neeche ek aur mazboot level 0.6184 hai, jo correction ke start mein bana tha. Agar price is level ko todti hai, toh naya bottom ban sakta hai, jahan par MACD par bullish divergence develop hogi aur short-term buying ka ek acha mauqa mil sakta hai.

Agar price neeche na jaye aur 0.6253 ka breakout upar ki taraf ho, toh growth ka silsila Fibonacci correction ke 38.2 level tak barh sakta hai.
2025 Ka Analysis aur Future Expectations


Aane wale dino mein AUD/USD aur ziada girne ka imkaan hai. Immediate support levels 0.6270 aur 0.6170 ke qareeb hain, jahan buyers market mein aasakte hain. Lekin agar price upar pullback karti hai, toh traders ka pehla target 0.6440 ka resistance level hoga.

Sab se ziada resistance zone 0.6600 par hai, jo ke 50-week aur 100-week simple moving averages se banta hai. Technical indicators filhaal bearish trend ko support kar rahe hain, aur lagta hai ke AUD aur ziada downward pressure face karega.

Traders ko ab trade policy aur economic data releases par nazar rakhni hogi, kyunki yeh dono cheezein Australian dollar ki short-term aur medium-term direction ko tay karengi.