Gbp/usd

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD ke D1 time frame par, hum is currency pair ke price behavior par tawajjoh de rahe hain. Haal ke market movements yeh darshati hain ke pair mein kafi kami aayi hai, aur sab nishaan is bearish momentum ki jari rehne ki taraf ishara karte hain. Bears ka control mazboot hai, aur yeh pair musalsal neeche ki taraf ja raha hai, jisse lagta hai ke humein qareeb mustaqbil mein aur nuqsan dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ek ahem support level 1.3262 ke nazdeek pahuncha hai. Yeh level tareekh mein ek major barrier ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur traders iski taraf tawajjoh de rahe hain dekhne ke liye ke market kaise react karta hai. Agar bears is price ko is support level se neeche le jaane mein kamiyab hote hain, to yeh downtrend ki tezi ko aur barha sakta hai, jo bechne ka dabao badha sakta hai.




Haal ki downtrend ke liye kai asraat zimmedar hain. Fundamental taraf se, UK mein chal rahi economic uncertainty, khaaskar inflationary pressures aur Bank of England ki interest rate policies ke hawale se concerns ne pound par bhari asar daala hai. Iske ilawa, US dollar bhi mazboot hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ki hawkish policies ke intezaar mein hai, jo GBP/USD par aur dabao daal raha hai.

Technical nazariye se, bearish trend kai indicators se confirm hota hai. Yeh pair key moving averages se neeche trade kar raha hai, jo darshata hai ke sab se asan rasta neeche ki taraf hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi neeche ja raha hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke pair abhi oversold nahi hua, isliye aur bearish action ki gunjaish hai.

Iske ilawa, price action yeh darshata hai ke bearish momentum musalsal barh raha hai, jismein pair ne aakhri sessions mein lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3262 ka support level todta hai, to bears ka agla target 1.3200 ka psychological level ho sakta hai, jo aur bechne ka dabao trigger kar sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar buyers 1.3262 level ko defend karne ki koshish karte hain, to ek temporary bounce ho sakta hai. Lekin, jab tak koi significant bullish catalysts samne nahi aate, overall trend bearish rehne ki umeed hai. GBP/USD pair D1 time frame par strong bearish momentum dikha raha hai, jismein key support level 1.3262 ka test hone ki sambhavna hai. Jab tak bears control mein hain, downtrend ki umeed hai, isliye traders ko is ahem support area par nazar rakhni chahiye aur aage ki ghatne ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye.

GBP/USD Price Action Review
Ham apni guftagu mein GBP/USD currency pair ke maujooda price behavior ka gehra tajziya kar rahe hain. Jaise ke umeed thi, jab GBP/USD ne 1.3411 ke ird gird accumulation zone tak pahuncha, to chart par aik notable kami dekhne ko mili. Yeh kami is baat ki nishani hai ke aksar market participants is range mein kharidari kar rahe the, jo ke tezi se neeche ki taraf ghatne ka sabab bana. Ab humein maujooda price se neeche 1.3087 level par tawajjoh deni chahiye. Agar yeh pair neeche jaata hai aur is level par volume se supported bullish signal banata hai, to humein significant upward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo 1.3204 area ko target kar sakti hai. Agar price 1.3204 se upar nahi jaati, to recent lows se neeche ghatne ka khatra hai. Hourly chart par, bechnay wale buyers par koi significant pressure nahi daal rahe, jo bechne walon ko behtar mauqa de raha hai.



Iss waqt GBP/USD bechna ek mehfooz faisla hai. Yeh pair apne sideways trend se nikal chuka hai aur 1.3356 aur 1.3424 ke aas-paas mazboot downtrend mein hai. Bears ke paas 161.8% correction level 1.3258 ke neeche position secure karne ka achha mauqa hai, jo ke mazeed kami ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Kal ke waqiat ne US dollar ki taqat ke wazeh nishan dikhaye, jo is pair par gehra asar daal rahe hain. MACD aur momentum indicators bhi bearish divergences dikhate hain, jo neeche ki taraf mazeed harkat ki sambhavna ko barhate hain.

Filhal, price daily buyers ke range mein aa chuki hai, jaise ke maine pehle zikar kiya, jo 1.3280 aur 1.3151 ke darmiyan hai. Yeh range ahem hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke kal se critical movement shuru ho sakti hai. Yeh wazeh hai ke sellers volume ke sath pressure daal rahe hain, aur buyers is resistance ka samna apne volume candles ke sath kar rahe hain. Yeh falling prices par mazboot yaqeen ka ishara hai, jahan sellers 1.3338-1.3376 wave par concentrated hain.

Profit Potential: GBP/USD
Main filhal GBP/USD currency pair ke live analysis ka tajziya kar raha hoon. Mera tajziya overbought aur oversold market conditions ke concept par mabni hai. 14 periods ke saath Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka istemal karte hue, main chhote time frames par unidirectional trades ki talash kar raha hoon. Jab price overbought zone mein chali jaati hai, to hamesha alert rehna zaroori hai. RSI ko 70 tak pahuncha chahiye, jo 1.32870 level ke aas-paas potential price shifts ka ishara deta hai. Is point par main sell position shuru karta hoon. Mera trading strategy risk-to-reward ratio 1:3 par mabni hai, jiska maqsad hai munafa teen martaba zyada hona chahiye jo ke potential loss se.

GBP/USD pair 1.32499 ke neeche girne ki koshish kar raha hai lekin is mein kamiyabi nahi mili, aur price ab 1.32999 ki upper boundary ki taraf wapas aa rahi hai. Is se kuch ahem sawaal uthte hain: Kya bulls GBP/USD rate ko Ichimoku cloud ke paar 1.3349 level tak push karenge, jo meri sell positions ko khatar mein daal sakta hai? Ya phir 1.32499 level fail ho jayegi, jisse pair 1.31999 ki taraf neeche jaata rahega? Filhal, yeh wo levels hain jin par main is hafte tawajjoh de raha hoon.



Price, bullish signal se stronger uptrend mein transition karne mein nakam rahi hai aur 1.3284 ke crucial level se neeche gir gayi hai, jo bulls ki current kamzori ko darshata hai. Halankeh M30 time frame par bullish signal nazar nahi aa raha, bears ko is level ke neeche kam se kam ek ghante tak control banana zaroori hai taake unki taqat confirm ho sake. Ab tak, kisi taraf se decisive move nahi hua hai. Lekin agar M15 time frame par bearish sentiment barqarar raha aur price 1.3284 ke neeche rahi, to yeh bears ke liye mazeed ghatne ka mauqa de sakta hai.

GBP/USD ka jorh, jiska 1.3060 ke aas-paas halka sa girawat dekha gaya, ne Friday ko US session ke doran apni teen din ki girawat ka silsila khatam kiya. UK ke kisi bhi aham ma'ashi data ki kami ki wajah se is jorh ki harkat ka zyada asar US Dollar ki taqat par hai. Bazaar ke band hone tak, GBP/USD ne 1.3121 ke aas-paas trading ki, jo pehle ke girawat se kuch recovery darshata hai.

Is jorh ki bazar ki soorat-e-haal agle aane wale ma'ashi data releases par mabni hogi dono UK aur US se. Jab tak UK ka koi aham ma'ashi data nahi aata, US Dollar ki performance hi is jorh ki harkat ko tay karegi. Trader ko Federal Reserve se aane wale developments par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki agar Fed ki policy mein koi achanak tabdeeliyan aati hain, to yeh currency bazar mein mazeed tezi ka sabab ban sakti hain.

Pound Sterling ki mixed performance dekhne ko mili hai apne bade jorhon ke muqablay mein, lekin kisi bhi haseen musibat ka khauf nahi hai. British currency ke liye investor ka bharosa is liye hai ke Bank of England (BoE) saal ke baqi hisson mein dheere dheere monetary policy ko asan karne ka irada rakhta hai. BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne haal hi mein kaha ke inflationary pressures ke doosre daur ke asraat pehle se kam hone ki umeed hai, lekin unhone aage badhne mein jaldi karne se roknay ka kaha.

US Fed ke rate cut ki umeedain kam hoti ja rahi hain:

Financial market ke hissedaron ka lagbhag yakeen hai ke US Federal Reserve September mein interest rates ko kam karna shuru karega. Lekin, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data ke zariye nazar aane wali musalsal inflation ne aggressive rate cuts ke chances ko kam kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis point (bps) interest rate ka reduction ab sirf 30.5% tak simat gaya hai, jabke pehle yeh 36% tha.

GBP/USD ka technical analysis:

Jab GBP/USD ne 1.3433 ke aalaah dakhil kiya, to ab yeh 1.3150 ke neeche gir gaya hai. Jabke US Dollar par bechne ka pressure kam hota ja raha hai, jorh ab bhi apne recent highs ke nazdeek hai, jo ke August mein 29-month peak tak pohanch gaya tha. Technical indicators yeh darshate hain ke GBP/USD ab bhi upward momentum rakhta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish territory mein hai, lekin yeh neeche ki taraf jata hua nazar aa raha hai, jo ke market sentiment mein tabdeeli ka ishara hai. Agar momentum kam hota raha, to yeh sellers ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD Tahlil

Yeh currency pair North American session ke doran kuch modest declines ka shikaar hua, jahan yeh 1.3067 par pichle teen hafton ka low tak pohanch gaya, lekin thoda bounce back bhi kiya. Jab traders Federal Reserve ke aane wale monetary policy faislay ka intezar kar rahe the, tab is pair ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur ab yeh 1.3121 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke apne opening price se 0.30% zyada hai. Is recovery ke bawajood, market mein uncertainty ne is pair par pressure banaye rakha hai.

### Federal Reserve ke Rate Cut ki Umeedain

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Federal Reserve apne pehle interest rate cut ka faisla kar sakta hai jo ke pichle char saalon mein pehli baar hoga. Lekin is baat par ab bhi debate chal rahi hai ke Fed kitni jaldi key borrowing rates ko kam karega. 30-day Federal Funds Futures ke data se yeh pata chalta hai ke 65% probability hai ke 50-basis-point (bps) ka cut ho, jisse rates 4.75%-5.00% tak aayengi, jabke baqi market participants ek zyada conservative 25-bps cut ko pasand karte hain. Federal Reserve ke officials ke recent comments ne central bank ka focus inflation se labor demand ke kamzori par shift kar diya hai, jo rate cuts ki raftar ko bhi asar daal sakta hai.

### BoE ka Monetary Policy Announcement

Investors Bank of England (BoE) ke aane wale monetary policy announcement par bhi nazar rakh rahe hain. Jab inflation data release hone wala hai, tab market ko ummeed hai ke BoE apne interest rates ko 5% par barqarar rakhega. Magar August ke inflation figures ne jo persistent price pressures dikhaye hain, unke mad e nazar yeh speculation barh rahi hai ke BoE shayad current levels par rates ko is saal ke akhri tak barqarar rakhe. Yeh future monetary policy moves ke liye expectations ko shape kar sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke Key Resistance aur Support Levels

Is pair ko August 27 ke high 1.3267 ke aas paas significant resistance ka samna karna hoga, jo ke psychological level 1.3500 ke baad aata hai. Neeche ki taraf, psychological support 1.3000 traders ke liye dekhne ke liye bohot zaroori hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai to yeh Pound Sterling ke liye further bearish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai, jabke agar is par banay rehne mein kamiyabi milti hai to yeh additional losses se bacha sakta hai. Is liye, traders ko in levels par nazar rakhni chahiye taake woh market ke mood ko samajh sakein.

### GBP/USD Ka Jaiza

GBP/USD ne North American session ke doran kuch halka girawat dekhi, jo ke teen hafte ki neechi level par 1.3067 tak pahuncha. Iske baad thoda rebound bhi dekha gaya. Jab traders Federal Reserve ki aanay wali monetary policy faislay ki intezar kar rahe the, pair ne kuch zameen wapas hasil ki, aur ab yeh 1.3121 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke apne opening price se 0.30% zyada hai. Halankeh is recovery ke bawajood, market mein uncertainty ne pair ko pressure mein rakha hai.

### Federal Reserve Ki Rate Cut Ki Taqreebat

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Federal Reserve ne chaar saalon mein pehli martaba interest rate cut karne ka iraada rakha hai. Magar, is baat par ab bhi behas hai ke Fed kis speed se key borrowing rates ko kam karega. 30-day Federal Funds Futures se milne wale data se yeh pata chalta hai ke 65% logon ko 50-basis-point (bps) cut ki ummeed hai, jo rates ko 4.75%-5.00% tak le aayega. Jabke baqi market participants ek zahir taur par 25-bps cut ko pasand kar rahe hain. Halhi mein Fed ke officials ke bayanat ne central bank ka fokus inflation se labor demand ke kamzori ki taraf shift kar diya hai, jo rate cuts ke pace par asar daal sakta hai.

### Bank of England Ka Monetary Policy Announcement

Investors Bank of England (BoE) ke aanay wale monetary policy announcement par bhi nazar rakh rahe hain. Inflation data release se pehle, market ko yeh ummeed thi ke BoE apne interest rates ko 5% par barqarar rakhega. Magar, August ke inflation figures ne jo persistent price pressures dikhaye hain, unke bawajood ab yeh speculation barh gayi hai ke BoE shayad apne rates ko is saal ke end tak waise hi rakhe. Yeh aane wale monetary policy moves ke liye expectations ko shape kar sakta hai.

### GBP/USD Ke Liye Key Resistance aur Support Levels

GBP/USD ko August 27 ki high 1.3267 ke aas paas significant resistance ka samna karna padega, iske baad key psychological level 1.3500 hai. Neeche ki taraf, psychological support level 1.3000 traders ke liye dekhne ke liye ahem hoga. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh yeh Pound Sterling ke liye further bearish momentum ka signal de sakta hai, jabke agar yeh level upar barqarar rahta hai, toh yeh additional losses ke khilaf ek buffer faraham kar sakta hai.

European Core CPI rate mein koi izafa nahi hua, lekin buyers ne 1.3415 ka level successfully cross kar liya ek breakout ke sath. Neeche diye gaye chart ke mutabiq, buyers ne bullish aur bearish views ko develop kiya hai. Buyers ne pichlay haftay ka sara nuksan wapas recover kar liya hai, jo technical perspective se unke liye behtareen hai. Magar, sellers abhi bhi 1.3405 ke support zone par pur umeed hain. Agar unhe wapas aana hai, to unko 1.3390 ke neeche rehna hoga. Is haftay mujhe lagta hai ke EUR currency mazid strong rahegi. Buyers ne ab 1.3450 ka naya range bhi successfully cross kar liya hai. Rozana ke micro economic calendar mein filhal koi khas news nahi hai, is liye hume technical analysis par inhisar karna hoga taake market ke asal decision ko samajh sakein.

Is naye market scenario ke natijay mein, buyers abhi zyada strong lag rahe hain. Lekin, aane wala din unke liye mushkil ho sakta hai kyunke buyers dobara se overbought level par pahunch chuke hain. Aaj ke buy position ka take profit point 1.3380 ke qareeb hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke GBP/USD market meri analysis aur predictions ke mutabiq chalti rahegi.

Doosri taraf, GBP/USD pair ne tisray din bhi apni downtrend ko barqarar rakha, aur Asian session ke dauran 1.3200 ke aas paas trade ho raha tha Thursday ko. GBP/USD pair jo risk-sensitive hai, Middle East mein barhti hui tensions aur US dollar mein safe-haven flows ki wajah se pressure mein tha. US Dollar Index (DXY) ne apni gains ko chotha din barqarar rakha, jisme US Treasury yields mein izafa bhi shaamil tha. 2-year aur 10-year US Treasury yields ne 3.65% aur 3.79% ko chooa.

Data ke hisaab se, US ADP Employment Change report ne umeedon se behtar performance dikhayi, jisme September mein 143,000 jobs ka izafa report hua. Annual wage increases bhi 4.7% par barqarar rahin, jo ke relatively high hain. Is achi employment data ke bawajood, Bank of England (BoE) ne apne interest rates ko cut karne mein ehtiyaat barati, aur inflation ke hawale se services sector mein apni concerns ko highlight kiya, jahan economic growth mazid strong nazar aayi.

BoE ke Financial Policy Committee (FPC) ne note kiya ke UK mein financial stability risks June se le kar ab tak barqarar hain. BoE ki policymaker Megan Green ne ye bhi kaha ke UK ka consumer-led recovery ek naye inflation wave ko janam de sakta hai. Magar, unhone tasleem kiya ke jab prices sahi direction mein move karen ge, to mazeed rate cuts ka bhi imkan hai

European Core CPI aur Market Dynamics


Halankeh European Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein koi izafa nahi hua, phir bhi kharidaar 1.3415 ke level ko cross karne mein kamiyab rahe, jo ek breakout ko darshata hai. Neeche diye gaye chart ke mutabiq, kharidaaron mein dono bullish aur bearish jazbat taraqqi kar rahe hain. Pichle hafte, unhone apne pehle ke sab nuqsanat ko recover kiya hai, jo unke liye ek tafreeqi faida hai. Lekin, bechne walon ko 1.3405 ke support zone par umeed hai. Agar bechne walon ko phir se momentum hasil karna hai, toh unhe 1.3390 ke level ke neeche rehna hoga. Is hafte, meri khayal mein EUR currency mazid majboot hoti rahegi. Kharidaaron ne 1.3450 par ek naye range ko bhi successfully cross kiya hai. Rozana ki microeconomic calendar par koi aham khabar nahi hai, toh hum market sentiment ko behtar samajhne ke liye technical analysis par depend karenge.
Current Market Scenario


Naye market developments ke roshni mein, kharidaar kaafi mazboot nazar aate hain. Lekin, aane wale dinon mein unke liye kuch challenges ho sakte hain kyunke woh overbought levels tak pahunche hain. Aaj ki buy position ka take-profit target 1.3380 ke aas-paas hai. Mujhe umeed hai keh GBP/USD market meri analysis aur predictions ke mutabiq chalti rahegi.
GBP/USD Pair Downtrend


Dusri taraf, GBP/USD pair ne tisre consecutive din ke liye downtrend bana rakha hai aur ye Asian session ke doran 1.3200 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Ye pair, jo ke risk ke liye sensitive hai, bechaini ka shikaar raha hai kyunke Middle East mein tanav barh gaya hai aur US dollar mein safe-haven flows aayi hain. US Dollar Index (DXY) ne chauthe din ke liye apne gains ko barkarar rakha hai, jo rising US Treasury yields ki wajah se hai. 2-year aur 10-year US Treasury yields ne 3.65% aur 3.79% ka darja dekha hai.
Employment Data Insights


Data ke mutabiq, US ADP Employment Change report ne umeedon se zyada behtar nateeje diye hain, jo ke September mein 143,000 naukriyon ki izafa dikhate hain. Salana wage increases bhi 4.7% ke aas-paas rahe hain. Is positive employment data ke bawajood, Bank of England (BoE) ne interest rates ko cut karne mein ehtiyaat baratne ki baat ki hai, jo khas taur par services sector mein inflation ke concerns par mabni hai, jahan economic growth kaafi mazboot nazar aata hai.

BoE ka Financial Policy Committee (FPC) yeh keh raha hai keh UK mein financial stability ke risks June se musalsal barqarar hain. BoE ki policymaker Megan Green ne kaha ke UK mein consumer-led recovery ek naye inflation ki lehar paida kar sakti hai. Lekin, unhone yeh bhi maana keh agar prices sahi disha mein move karen, toh mazeed rate cuts bhi tay ho sakte hain.

GBP/USD Status aur Market Analysis

GBP/USD ka jo jo jora hai, woh North American session ke doran kuch kami dekhta hai aur 1.3067 par teen hafton ka sab se neecha darja dekhta hai, lekin us ke baad thodi recovery dekhta hai. Jab traders Federal Reserve ke agle monetary policy faislay ka intezar kar rahe the, pair ne kuch zameen hasil ki aur ab 1.3121 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke apni shuruati keematon se 0.30% barha hai. Is recovery ke bawajood, market mein uncertainty ab bhi jari hai jo is jore par pressure daal rahi hai.

Federal Reserve ki Rate Cut ki Tawaqqo

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Federal Reserve se pehli dafa chaar saal mein interest rate cut ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin, market mein is baat par baazahi chadak hai ke Fed kitni jaldi key borrowing rates ko kam karega. 30-day Federal Funds Futures ka data darj karta hai ke 65% ki ahmiyat hai ke 50-basis-point (bps) ka cut hoga, jo rates ko 4.75%-5.00% ke daira mein le aayega. Is ke muqabil, doosray bazar ke hissa daar 25-bps ka zyada ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain. Fed ke kuch afraad ki recent comments ne central bank ki tawajjoh ko inflation se kamzor labor demand ki taraf mor diya hai, jo rate cuts ki raftar ko asar kar sakta hai.

Bank of England ki Monetary Policy ka Iilan

Investors Bank of England (BoE) ke aane wale monetary policy announcement par bhi nazar rakh rahe hain. Inflation data ke release se pehle, bazaar mein intezar hai ke BoE apne interest rates ko 5% par barqarar rakh sakta hai. Lekin, August ke inflation figures ne lagatar price pressures ko zahir kiya hai, jo ke tawaqqo ko barha raha hai ke BoE shayad apne rates ko saal ke aakhir tak yahan rakhe. Ye development mustaqbil ke monetary policy moves par asar daal sakti hai.

GBP/USD ke Liye Key Resistance aur Support Levels

Is pair ko August 27 ke high 1.3267 ke ird gird kaafi badi resistance ka samna hai, jo ke psychological level 1.3500 ke baad aata hai. Niche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological support level traders ke liye dekhne ke liye ahem hoga. Agar is level se neeche girne mein kamiyab hota hai, to Pound Sterling ke liye aur bearish momentum ka ishaara mil sakta hai, jabke agar ye is level ke upar reh jata hai to kya yeh mazeed nuqsan se bach sakta hai.

Momentum Indicator aur Traders ka Focus

14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI), jo ek maqbool momentum oscillator hai, filhal 60.00 ke ird gird hai. Agar CCI is level par qaim rehta hai, to ye GBP/USD pair ke liye naye bullish momentum ki mumkinat ka ishaara de sakta hai. Traders is indicator par nazar rakhenge ye dekhne ke liye keh pair upar ki taraf break karega ya phir phir se bechne ka pressure samna karega.

GBP/USD pair ne thursday ko US session ke aghaz par 1.3060 mark par halka sa decline dekha, jo ke pichlay teen dino ke loss ko reverse karta hai. UK ke kisi bhi significant economic data ki absence mein, pair ka movement zyada tar US Dollar ki strength se effect ho raha hai. Market ke close tak, GBP/USD 1.3121 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha, jo ke pehle dip se thora sa recovery dikhata hai.

Pair ka market sentiment ziada tar aanay walay UK aur US ke data releases par mabni hoga. Agar UK ke taraf se koi top-tier economic data na aaya, to phir bhi US Dollar ki performance is pair ke movement ko drive karti rahegi. Traders ko Federal Reserve ke developments par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke agar koi unexpected shift aati hai Fed ke policy direction mein, to currency market mein mazid volatility aa sakti hai.

Mixed Performance for Pound Sterling Amid Investor Optimism:

Pound Sterling apne major counterparts ke mukablay mein mixed performance dikha raha hai, lekin broader outlook ab bhi relatively positive hai. British currency par investors ka confidence is wajah se hai ke Bank of England (BoE) aista aista apni monetary policy ko ease karega iss saal ke baqi hisay mein. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne hal hi mein kaha hai ke inflationary pressures ka second-round asar utna significant nahi hoga jitna pehle socha gaya tha. Magar, unhone bhi caution kiya ke interest rate cuts mein jaldbazi na ki jaye aur aista aista approach rakhi jaye.

US Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish:

Financial markets mein participants ko takreeban yaqeen hai ke US Federal Reserve September mein interest rates reduce karega. Magar, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data ke zariye persistent inflation ke chalte, aggressive rate cuts ki umeed kam ho gayi hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points (bps) ke interest rate cut ke chances 36% se gir ke ab 30.5% par aagaye hain, kyun ke inflation ab bhi Fed ki policy outlook ke liye ek challenge bana hua hai.

Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD:

GBP/USD pair ne apne multi-month highs se jo ke 1.3433 mark se upar tha, ab neeche 1.3150 ke level par aake slide kar liya hai. US Dollar ke selling pressure mein kami dekhi gayi hai, lekin yeh pair apne recent highs ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo August mein 29-mahina peak tak pohoncha tha. Bullish price action ab tak barqarar hai, aur GBP/USD firmly 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar trade kar raha hai jo 1.2970 level par strong support provide karta hai. Neeche ki taraf, bearish traders ka immediate target 50-day EMA par hai jo 1.3109 level ke qareeb hai.

Halankeh recent dip ke bawajood, technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke GBP/USD pair mein ab bhi upward momentum hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi bullish territory mein hai, magar yeh neeche ki taraf trend kar raha hai jo potential weakness ki nishani hai. Jab RSI apne neutral level ke qareeb pohonchta hai, traders ko market sentiment mein shift ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, jo agar momentum mein weakness barkarar rehti hai, to sellers ke haq mein ja sakta hai.

**European Core CPI aur Market Dynamics**

Halankeh European Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein koi izafa nahi hua, magar buyers ne 1.3415 level ko successfully cross karke breakout hasil kiya hai. Neeche diye gaye chart ke mutabiq, buyers ke darmiyan bullish aur bearish sentiments dono taraqqi paa rahe hain. Pichle haftay, unhone apni sab purani losses recover kar li hain, jo ke technically unke liye faida mand hai. Lekin, sellers ab bhi 1.3405 support zone par umeed rakhte hain. Sellers ko momentum wapas hasil karne ke liye 1.3390 level ke neeche rehna hoga. Mujhe lagta hai ke is haftay EUR currency ki taqat barhti rahegi. Buyers ne 1.3450 par ek nayi range ko bhi successfully cross kiya hai. Daily microeconomic calendar par koi khaas khabar nahi hai, isliye hum technical analysis par market sentiment samajhne ke liye rely karenge.

**Current Market Scenario**

Naye market developments ke roshni mein, buyers kaafi mazboot nazar aa rahe hain. Lekin, aane wale dinon mein unke liye challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai kyunki wo overbought levels tak pahunche hain. Aaj ki buy position ka take-profit target 1.3380 ke aas-paas hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke GBP/USD market mere analysis aur predictions ke mutabiq chalta rahega.

**GBP/USD Pair Ka Downtrend**

Dusri taraf, GBP/USD pair ne teesre consecutive din tak apna downtrend barqarar rakha hai aur Thursday ko Asian session ke doran yeh 1.3200 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha. Yeh pair, jo ke risk ke liye sensitive hai, Middle East mein barhati hui tensions aur safe-haven flows ke chalte US dollar ke pressure mein hai. US Dollar Index (DXY) ne apne gains ko chouthay din tak barqarar rakha hai, jo ke US Treasury yields ke barhne ki wajah se hai. 2-year aur 10-year US Treasury yields ne 3.65% aur 3.79% tak pohanch gaye hain.

**Employment Data Insights**

Data ke mutabiq, US ADP Employment Change report ne expectations ko paar karte hue September mein 143,000 naukriyon ka izafa dikhaya. Saal bhar ki wage increases bhi 4.7% ke aas-paas rahin, jo ke kaafi unchi hai. Is positive employment data ke bawajood, Bank of England (BoE) ne interest rates ko cut karne mein ehtiyaat barqarar rakhi hai, aur services sector mein inflation ke hawale se concerns ko zor diya hai, jahan economic growth bohot mazboot nazar aa rahi hai.

BoE ka Financial Policy Committee (FPC) ne kaha hai ke UK mein financial stability ke risks June se ab tak barqarar hain. BoE policymaker Megan Green ka kehna tha ke UK mein consumer-led recovery ek naye inflation ka wave paida kar sakti hai. Magar unhone ye bhi tasdeeq kiya ke agar prices sahi direction mein move karte hain, toh mazeed rate cuts bhi mumkin hain.

### GBP/USD Ka Halat Aur Market Ka Jaiza

GBP/USD pair ne North American session ke doran kuch kami dekhi, jo teen hafton ka low 1.3067 tak pahuncha, lekin baad mein thodi recovery kar li. Jab traders Federal Reserve ke agle monetary policy faisle ka intezar kar rahe the, to is pair ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur 1.3121 par trade kar raha tha, jo iski opening price se 0.30% ka izafa darshata hai. Is recovery ke bawajood, market mein uncertainty ne pair par dabao barqarar rakha.

### Federal Reserve Ki Rate Cut Ki Umeed

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Federal Reserve ke taraf se chaar saalon mein pehli baar interest rate cut ki umeed hai. Lekin, is baare mein abhi bhi debate chal rahi hai ke Fed kis tezi se key borrowing rates ko kam karega. 30-day Federal Funds Futures data ke mutabiq, 50-basis-point (bps) cut ka 65% chance hai, jo rates ko 4.75%-5.00% ke range tak le aayega. Iske muqabil, kuch market participants ek more cautious approach ko pasand karte hain, jisme 25-bps cut shamil hai. Fed officials ke recent comments ne central bank ke focus ko inflation se labor demand ki kamzori ki taraf shift kar diya hai, jo rate cuts ki raftaar par asar daal sakta hai.

### Bank of England Ki Monetary Policy Ka Ailan

Investors ab Bank of England (BoE) ke agle monetary policy announcement par bhi nazar rakh rahe hain. Inflation data ke release se pehle, market ne largely umeed ki thi ke BoE interest rates ko 5% par barqarar rakhega. Lekin, August ke inflation figures ne persistent price pressures ko dikhaya, jisne yeh speculation barhayi ke BoE shayad saal ke akhir tak rates ko current levels par rakhne ka faisla karega. Yeh development mustaqbil ke monetary policy moves ke liye umeedon ko shape kar sakti hai.

### GBP/USD Ke Liye Ahem Resistance Aur Support Levels

Is pair ko August 27 ke high 1.3267 ke aas paas significant resistance ka samna hai, jo ke psychological level 1.3500 se pehle hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological support level traders ke liye khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar is level se neeche girta hai, to Pound Sterling ke liye further bearish momentum ka signal mil sakta hai, jabke agar is par barqarar raha, to additional losses se bacha ja sakta hai.

### Momentum Indicator Aur Traders Ki Tawajjoh

14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI), jo ek mashhoor momentum oscillator hai, abhi 60.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar CCI is level par barqarar rehta hai, to yeh GBP/USD pair ke liye naye bullish momentum ki nishani ho sakti hai. Traders is indicator par nazar rakhenge taake yeh dekh saken ke kya pair upar ki taraf break karega ya phir dobara selling pressure ka samna karega.

Currencies ko certainty pasand hoti hai, aur ek bari Labour jeet sterling exchange rates mein baqi rahne wale risk premium ko khatam kar degi, chahe yeh kitna bhi chhota ho. Barclays Bank ke mutabiq, “British general elections is haftay ka main focus hain, aur ziada tar plausible scenarios, jo ke available opinion polls ke mutabiq hain, pound ki mazeed taqat ko stimulate karte hain.” Is leehaz se, Barclays pound ko euro ke against buy kar raha hai, jo ke French election ke natije ke baad limited recovery dikhayega.


Aaj ke US jobs numbers ka reaction GBP/USD ke liye is haftay ke trading ka closing price tay karega, jo ke ek bullish weekly close ke qareeb hai. Jaise pehle zikar kiya, resistance 1.28775 bulls ke control mein wapas anay ke liye sabse important station hai, aur daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, price resistance levels 1.2830 aur 1.2900 tak pohonch sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar price wapas 1.29660 ke support area tak jati hai, to yeh upward rebound ke liye khatra hai.



Market Is waqt ke sath kuch aham faisle lene ke liye tayaar hai. Jab tak yeh faisle nahi hote, traders ko kuch erratic movements ki umeed rakhni chahiye, jab yeh currency pair is wider range mein rahega. Agar Euro 1.2800 se neeche girta hai, to yeh mazeed nuqsan ki sambhavna khol sakta hai, lekin filhal, yeh sochna zaroori hai ke Euro apne dheere descent ko jari rakhega. Kul mila kar, is waqt ka halat Euro ke liye ek challenging environment darshata hai, jo ke U.S. se aane wale mazboot ma'ashi indicators aur Europe ki taraf se ehtiyaat bhare outlook se chalay raha hai.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD Ka Overview
GBP/USD, jo British Pound aur US Dollar ka currency pair hai, forex market mein bohat zyada trade hone wala pair hai. Yeh pair "Cable" ke naam se bhi jana jata hai, jo historically UK aur US ke beech ki strong financial ties ko represent karta hai. Dono currencies ke economies, yani UK aur US, duniya ke barray financial centers hain, is liye inka exchange rate bohat se global factors se directly asar andaz hota hai.

Current Market Sentiment

GBP/USD ka current sentiment thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai. UK economy inflation ke pressure mein hai, aur Bank of England ki taraf se monetary tightening ke bawajood, economic growth slow hai. Doosri taraf, US economy ne better performance dikhayi hai, jahan Federal Reserve ne interest rates ko high rakhne ka signal diya hai. Yeh US Dollar ko support kar raha hai, aur British Pound ko neeche le ja raha hai. Political uncertainty aur Brexit ke baad ke effects bhi GBP par negative asar daal rahe hain.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators ke mutabiq GBP/USD ne recent weeks mein downside momentum dikhaya hai. Price action abhi ek descending channel mein hai, aur moving averages bhi downside ko support kar rahe hain. 50-day moving average ne 200-day moving average ko downside pe cross kiya hai, jo ek bearish signal hota hai. RSI bhi filhal 40 ke aas paas hai, jo neutral se thora bearish sentiment ko indicate kar raha hai. Agar RSI 30 ke neeche jata hai, to oversold condition create ho sakti hai, jahan se ek reversal ka chance barh sakta hai.

Key Support aur Resistance Levels

Filhal GBP/USD ke liye important support level 1.2100 ke aas paas hai. Agar price is level ko break karta hai, to agla major support 1.2000 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, resistance 1.2300 pe hai, aur agar yeh level break hota hai to agla resistance 1.2400 tak ja sakta hai. Yeh levels near-term trading ke liye bohat critical hain.

Conclusion

GBP/USD ko dekhte hue, filhal market mein bearish pressure hai, lekin bohat se factors, jaise ke UK ka inflation data, US Federal Reserve ki policies, aur global market ka overall sentiment, is pair ko asar andaz karenge. Traders ko careful rahna chahiye aur macroeconomic updates aur technical levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye jab tak market direction clear na ho.