gbp/usd

Pound Sterling ne paanch din ka naya high 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein touch kiya, jab ke US NFP report ka intezaar hai. Kamzor US JOLTS Job openings aur ADP Employment Change ka matlab hai ke US labor market mein kamzori aa rahi hai. BoE (Bank of England) se umeed hai ke woh is saal ke baqi hisson mein sirf ek martaba interest rates kam karega.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ne thoda sa ease kiya jab ke usne 1.3200 ke qareeb naye paanch din ke high ko touch kiya European session mein. GBP/USD pair ne US Dollar ke muqable mein zyada movement nahi dikhai jab ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ke liye intezaar ho raha hai, jo ke 12:30 GMT par jari hoga.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chand ahem currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, thoda sa neeche gir gaya 101.00 ke support level se.

Maashiyat daan (economists) ka andaza hai ke US employers ne August mein 160K naye workers ko hire kiya, jo ke July mein hone wale 114K increase se zyada hai. Is dauran, Unemployment Rate 4.3% se kam hoke 4.2% hone ka andaza hai. Sarmaayakaar (investors) Average Hourly Earnings data par bhi tawajjo denge, jo ke wage growth ka ahem pehlu hai aur jo consumers ki kharidari aur price pressures ko barhata hai. Saalana tor par wage growth ka andaza 3.7% diya gaya hai, jo ke pehle 3.6% se thoda zyada hai. Mahana tor par, Average Hourly Earnings data mein 0.3% ka izafa dekhne ka andaza hai, jo ke July ke 0.2% se zyada hai.

Ye US employment data Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policy ka faisla tay karega is maheene. Job data ki ahmiyat barh gayi hai jab se Fed ne kaha hai ke ab woh inflation ke bajaye zyada tawajjo labor market ki sehat par dega, kyun ke inflation apne 2% target ke qareeb wapas aa raha hai.

Fed se umeed hai ke woh September ke meeting mein interest rates kam karna shuru karega. Magar traders abhi tak is baat par muttahid nahi hain ke rate cut kitna hoga. US JOLTS Job Openings aur ADP Employment Change data ke baad ek bara rate cut ka imkan barh gaya hai, jo ke labor market mein achanak kamzori ka izafa dikhata hai.





### Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb

Pound Sterling thoda sa soft ho gaya jab ke usne 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein high ko touch kiya. GBP/USD pair ne strong buying interest dikhaya near the breakout region, jo ke December 28, 2023, ke high 1.2828 se draw ki gayi upward-sloping trendline par tha, daily time frame mein.

Upward-sloping short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ek strong bullish trend ka izhar karti hain.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 60.00 ke qareeb hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke resume hone ka ishara deta hai.

Agar Cable naye two-and-a-half saal ke high 1.3266 ko break karta hai, to usko resistance 1.3500 ke psychological level aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 par milega. Downside par, 1.3000 ka psychological level ek ahem support point ke tor par samne aata hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ne bohot acchi performance dikhayi hai, jo ke improved risk sentiment aur UK aur US economic data ke expectations se driven hai. Kal, Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein apne gains ko extend kiya, jo ke US Retail Sales data ke positive market sentiment se hua. Ye data expectations se zyada thi, jisse US recession ke khauf ko kam kiya aur global economic stability ke liye optimistic outlook bana. Is wajah se, risk-sensitive currencies jese ke Pound ko faida hua, jab investors ka risk appetite barh gaya aur US Dollar par downward pressure aya. Pound ki strength ko UK ke July ke aane wale retail sales report ke anticipation ne aur barhawa diya hai. Analysts ko umeed hai ke ye data growth ko reflect karegi, jo currency ko aur support karega. Ye optimism UK economy ki resilience par hai, jo global challenges ke bawajood stability dikhati hai. Isliye, investors Pound ko pakad kar rakhna pasand kar rahe hain, aur umeed kar rahe hain ke strong retail figures currency ko aur boost karengi.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkil mein hai kyunki market ne Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein 25 basis point rate cut ko almost fully price in kar liya hai. Fed ka dovish stance aur recent weaker-than-expected inflation aur labor market data ne ye consensus banaya hai ke central bank apni monetary policy ko shayad jaldi ease kare. Ye expectation Dollar par additional pressure daal rahi hai, jo Pound ke muqablay mein recent decline ka ek reason hai. GBP/USD pair ki recent movements complex factors ka reflection hain, jinmein improved US economic data, UK retail sales growth ki expectations, aur shifting Federal Reserve policies shamil hain. Ye dynamics aage bhi pair ke trajectory ko influence karti rahengi, aur dono taraf ke upcoming economic indicators par nazar rakhi jayegi. GBP/USD pair daily chart par strength dikhata hai, jahan British pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein gain kiya hai. Rising wedge se breakdown ke baad, 50-day Simple Moving Average ne support provide kiya, jisne price ko rebound karne aur upward movement ko continue karne mein madad ki. Pair ab 1.3011 level ko target kar raha hai. Lekin, agar price reverse hoti hai aur immediate support ke neeche break karti hai, to ye market sentiment mein shift ka signal ho sakta hai, jo uptrend support line ko retest karne ki taraf

GBP/USD currency pair ne bohot acchi performance dikhayi hai, jo ke improved risk sentiment aur UK aur US economic data ke expectations se driven hai. Kal, Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein apne gains ko extend kiya, jo ke US Retail Sales data ke positive market sentiment se hua. Ye data expectations se zyada thi, jisse US recession ke khauf ko kam kiya aur global economic stability ke liye optimistic outlook bana. Is wajah se, risk-sensitive currencies jese ke Pound ko faida hua, jab investors ka risk appetite barh gaya aur US Dollar par downward pressure aya. Pound ki strength ko UK ke July ke aane wale retail sales report ke anticipation ne aur barhawa diya hai. Analysts ko umeed hai ke ye data growth ko reflect karegi, jo currency ko aur support karega. Ye optimism UK economy ki resilience par hai, jo global challenges ke bawajood stability dikhati hai. Isliye, investors Pound ko pakad kar rakhna pasand kar rahe hain, aur umeed kar rahe hain ke strong retail figures currency ko aur boost karengi.

Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkil mein hai kyunki market ne Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein 25 basis point rate cut ko almost fully price in kar liya hai. Fed ka dovish stance aur recent weaker-than-expected inflation aur labor market data ne ye consensus banaya hai ke central bank apni monetary policy ko shayad jaldi ease kare. Ye expectation Dollar par additional pressure daal rahi hai, jo Pound ke muqablay mein recent decline ka ek reason hai. GBP/USD pair ki recent movements complex factors ka reflection hain, jinmein improved US economic data, UK retail sales growth ki expectations, aur shifting Federal Reserve policies shamil hain. Ye dynamics aage bhi pair ke trajectory ko influence karti rahengi, aur dono taraf ke upcoming economic indicators par nazar rakhi jayegi. GBP/USD pair daily chart par strength dikhata hai, jahan British pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein gain kiya hai. Rising wedge se breakdown ke baad, 50-day Simple Moving Average ne support provide kiya, jisne price ko rebound karne aur upward movement ko continue karne mein madad ki. Pair ab 1.3011 level ko target kar raha hai. Lekin, agar price reverse hoti hai aur immediate support ke neeche break karti hai, to ye market sentiment mein shift ka signal ho sakta hai, jo uptrend support line ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai

GBP/USD

Pichlay Sunday ko GBP/USD pair ne bohot kam volatility kay sath trade kiya aur ab tak ascending trendline ko break nahi kar paya. British currency girnay mein hichkichahat ka shikar hai, halan kay yeh bohot arsay say upar ja rahi hai aur kaafi strong rahi hai, jo ke aam logic ke khilaaf hai. Monday ko koi macroeconomic ya fundamental events nahi thay, iss liye traders ke paas react karne ke liye kuch nahi tha. Hum British currency mein mazeed girawat ki tawaqo karte hain, lekin dollar ka agla qadam ziyada tar U.S. labor market aur iss haftay anay walay unemployment data par depend karega. Doosray reports bhi dollar ke barhney ya girney mein asar daal saktay hain. Har mahinay ka pehla haftah dollar ke liye sab se important hota hai. Agar price trendline ke neeche consolidate ho jata hai to yeh U.S. currency ke mazeed strong hone ka ehtemaal barha dega.

Monday ko 5-minute time frame mein teen trading signals bane thay. Har teen dafa price ne 1.3145 level se bounce kiya. Kisi bhi dafa mein price ne 20 pips ka girawat nahi dikhaya. Yeh teen signals repeat ho rahe thay, is liye sirf ek short position khuli ja sakti thi. Yeh position nuqsan mein nahi gayi kyun ke price poore din 1.3145 level se upar consolidate nahi kar paya.

Tuesday ke liye trading ka tareeqa:
Hourly time frame mein GBP/USD ka global downward trend resume karne ka acha chance hai, lekin filhaal ek strong local uptrend chal raha hai, kyun ke price mushkil se trendline tak pohoch payi hai. British pound ab bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har moka istemal kar raha hai pound khareednay aur dollar bechnay ka. Ab tak pound sirf halki si bearish correction dikha raha hai, aur abhi full-fledged downtrend ke barey mein baat karna jaldi hogi.

Tuesday ko pair ke neeche jaane ka imkaan hai, lekin ab trendline support ka kaam kar rahi hai na ke ek magnet ka. Rebound ka imkaan hai, jabke breakthrough baad mein ho sakta hai. Pound mein correction slow aur kamzor ho sakti hai.

5M time frame par jo key levels dekhne hain wo hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Tuesday ko UK mein koi bara event nahi hai, lekin U.S. ka ISM index of manufacturing activity release hoga jo ke August ka hai. Iss liye, second half of the day mein volatility barh sakti hai.

۔ GBP/USD ke currency pair ka price behavior dekhte hue, hum market quotes ki movement ko ek upward correction ke andar dekh rahe hain. Iss daur mein, buyers ne apni positions ko restore kar liya hai aur resistance level 1.2764 tak pohanch gaye hain. Agar yeh horizontal line breakout hoti hai, toh corrective growth resistance level 1.2823 tak continue ho sakti hai. 1.2856 ke resistance level tak bhi ek upward correction mumkin hai. Yeh growth, asoolan medium term mein downward trend ke scenario ko cancel nahi karti. GBP/USD ka reversal support ke four-hour 50.00% Fibonacci retracement se kaafi successful raha; price 100 points se barh gayi, aur mein umeed karta hoon ke kuch aur points ka growth dekhne ko milega. Wajah yeh hai ke price ne hourly retracement ke 23.60% resistance level ko break kar liya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke agle level tak pohanchne ka imkaan kaafi zyada hai.
Support area price 1.2733-1.2736 par hai, jahan se price ne bearish se bullish ki taraf palat liya. Bollinger bands indicator ko Daily timeframe par monitor karte hue yeh dekha gaya ke price buyers ke control mein hai, jo price ko Lower Bollinger bands area ke upar rakhnay mein kaamyab rahe hain, aur bullish candlestick ne phir se dominance hasil kar li hai. Iss wajah se yeh imkaan barh gaya hai ke buyers GBP/USD pair market ko agle hafte mein control mein rakhenge, jahan bullish target Middle Bollinger bands area 1.2845-1.2850 tak ka hoga. Agar yeh successfully penetrate ho gaya, toh price aur bhi ooper ja sakta hai, aur agla target Upper Bollinger bands area 1.3036-1.3040 par hoga. Agle Monday ke trading mein umeed hai ke pair ke price mein pehle correction hoga, kyun ke market close ke qareeb buyers abhi tak sellers ke resistance area 1.2770-1.2768 mein rukawat mehsoos kar rahe hain, jahan bearish target buyer's support area 1.2736-1.2733 ko test karne ki koshish karega. Agar yeh area sellers se break na ho saka, toh price ooper barh jayegi, lekin agar break ho gaya, toh price agle buyer's demand support area 1.2676-1.2673 tak ja sakti hai. Nateeja: Sell entry tab kar sakte hain agar seller najdeek ke buyer support area 1.2736-1.2733 ko torh deta hai, jahan target TP area 1.2676-1.2673 hoga. Buy entry tab kar sakte hain agar buyer najdeek ke seller resistance area

**GBP/USD Price Movement**
GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka analysis abhi discussion ke liye khula hai. Monday, 2nd September 2024 ko GBP/USD currency pair 1.3110 ke support area level se upar nahi ja saka, aur 1.3100 ke support area level tak pohnch gaya, jo ke pichle hafte aur Friday ke lowest trading lows ko represent karta hai. Seller ka is support area ko breach karne mein nakami ki wajah se, GBP/USD currency pair ne USDX index ke muqable mein dobara strength hasil ki aaj ke trading mein. GBP/USD currency pair ne H1 timeframe trading chart par aik **bullish reversal trend divergence pattern** create kiya hai, saath hi **golden cross pattern**, jo ke is trading session mein trend ke shift ka ishara deta hai.

**Thursday ko GBP/USD** mein aik significant reversal dekha gaya, jis ne apni sari gains wapis le li aur 1.3100 level ke neeche gir gaya. Pound ka apni winning streak ko barqarar rakhne mein struggle, stronger-than-expected **US economic data**, khaaskar **S&P Global Composite PMI for August** ki wajah se tha. US Composite PMI, jo ke business activity ko measure karta hai, 54.1 aaya, jabke expectations 54.3 thi. Is growth ko services sector ki optimism ne drive kiya, jabke manufacturing activity ki contraction expectations se zyada sharp thi. **US Dollar Index (DXY)** ne response mein rally ki, aur 101.00 se barh kar 101.60 par pohnch gaya. Strong economic data ke bawajood, US dollar ka outlook ab bhi uncertain hai, kyunke **Federal Reserve** ke interest rate cut ke hawale se speculation barh rahi hai.




**July ke FOMC meeting** ke minutes ne yeh reveal kiya ke kuch policymakers ne pehle hi borrowing rates ko kam karne ki sifarish ki thi, aur investors ab Fed ke zyada accommodative monetary policy ki taraf shift ke hawale se zyada confident hain. Lekin, minutes mein yeh bhi bataya gaya ke "substantial majority" officials ne yeh kaha ke rate cut tabhi appropriate hoga agar economic data expectations ke mutabiq rahe. Halaanki, United States mein recent data, jaise ke total employment mein decline, recession ke concerns ko barha raha hai aur rate cut ke hawale se expectations ko fuel kar raha hai.

GBP/USD pair ne hafte ka akhri din **bearish candle** ke sath close kiya, lekin yeh crucial support level 1.2678 ke neeche break nahi kar saka. Yeh suggest karta hai ke agle hafte mein mazeed bearish attempts ho sakti hain, lekin pair pehle thoda upward correction dekh sakta hai. Abhi tak daily chart par indicator ne buy signal generate kiya hai, lekin yeh signal abhi activate nahi hua. Price growth ko horizontal resistance 1.0684 par limit kar raha hai, jo ke upward movement mein barrier ke tor par kaam kar raha hai. Halaanki price ke barhne ka imkaan hai, lekin descending trendline ke aas paas resistance ka samna ho sakta hai. Anticipated correction ke dauran yeh movement descending resistance line ki taraf ho sakti hai, jahan traders ko reversals ya consolidation phases ka khayal rakhna chahiye. In dynamics ko madde nazar rakhte hue, market ko ihtiyat ke sath approach karna zaroori hai, khaaskar potential resistance levels aur overall market trend ke hawale se.

Hum traders apni trading plans ke sath align hone wale achche entry points dhundhne mein masroof hain. Bolang posting ke waqt relax karta hai, jo usko har hafte consistent aur increasing bonuses earn karne mein madad karta hai. Halanki, pichla hafta uske liye tough raha due to kuch floating losses in market trading, aur ab wo is hafta achchi profit banane ki umeed rakhta hai taake withdrawal (WD) enable kar sake. Consequently, hum ek trend confirmation pattern ka intezar kar rahe hain. Chote traders jaise humne 1.2645 par buy entry ki, aur kuch pehle ke buyers bhi is level par pehle touch par entry kar chuke hain, apne stop losses 1.2715 par place karte hue. Kuch traders over confident the aur unhone apne stop losses is level se neeche rakhe.

Note karna zaruri hai ke 80% market market makers se banti hai. Is scenario mein, market makers chote traders ke against move karte hain taake liquidity le sakein unke stop losses ko hit karte hue. Hum dekh sakte hain ke market ne yeh kiya, jiski wajah se direction sideways se downtrend mein badal gayi. Fundamentally, GBP/USD pair aur doosri pairs ongoing Ukraine war aur ek potential Fed rate hike ki concerns ki wajah se vulnerable hain. Yeh GBP/USD pairs ki movement ko further depress karta hai. Iske ilawa, scheduled news ya fundamental events with a high impact GBP/USD market pairs mein significant volatility cause kar sakti hain. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Bolang ne identify kiya hai ke aaj kuch news releases ya low-impact fundamentals hain, jaise ke JOLTS Opening. Agar results favorable hote hain, toh yeh US dollar ko strengthen kar sakta hai, jis se GBP/USD pair weaken ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD Pair Technical Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein 1.3231 ka saal ka sabse bara level choa, jo is pair ke liye ek aham high tha. Is high ke baad ek kafi wazeh bearish movement dekhi gayi, jisme pair 1.3300 se gir kar taqreeban 1.3240 tak pohoncha, aur aakhir mein 1.3250 ke qareeb settle ho gaya. Is tez girawat ke baad yeh baat zahir hoti hai ke market sentiment mein tabdeeli ayi hai, jahan selling pressure ne pehle ke bullish momentum ko shikast di. Peak par GBP/USD pair aise lag raha tha ke mazeed gains ke liye tayar hai, jise positive momentum aur strong bullish outlook ne support kiya tha. Magar iske baad jo tez bearish candle bani, usne dikhaya ke is upward momentum ko kafi resistance mila hai.

Price ka yeh movement market correction ya reversal ka aik izhar hai, jahan sellers ne pair ke trajectory par zyada asar dalna shuru kar diya hai. Aik key indicator jo is surat-e-haal mein madadgar ho sakta hai wo hai Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI ek momentum oscillator hai jo price movements ki speed aur tabdeeli ko napta hai. 70 se upar ki reading typically yeh signal deti hai ke currency pair overbought hai, jabke 30 se neeche ki reading oversold hone ka ishara deti hai. Haal hi ke peak par, RSI ne overbought levels ko choo liya hoga, jo yeh batata hai ke bullish trend apni taqat kho raha hai. RSI ki haali readings, aur iska downward slope, yeh dikhate hain ke bullish momentum kamzor ho raha hai aur bearish forces ka asar barh raha hai.

Halaankeh RSI ka ishara ek potential bullish outlook de raha tha, lekin GBP/USD ki haali downtrend yeh zahir karti hai ke selling pressure dominate kar raha hai. RSI ka downward slope is view ko support karta hai, jo buying interest ke kam hone aur selling activity ke barhne ka izhar hai. Market dynamics mein yeh tabdeeli short term mein bearish trend ke continuation ka ishara ho sakti hai.



Price ka upward correction aur level analysis perfect raha. Plan ke mutabiq, pullback green level 1.3244 ko cross nahi kar saka. Price ne is raaste par bilkul theek move kiya: pullback aaya, level cross nahi hua, aur jaldi se neeche ki taraf chala gaya. Maine selling ke liye ek ideal condition banayi, khaaskar sirf 34 points ka stop loss rakha tha — yeh ek bohot acha mouqa tha jo chhodna mushkil tha. Din ka natija kafi successful raha. Kal ek mazeed downward push ka intezaar hai, ideally 1.3149 tak. Magar euro ke mukablay mein pound ne kal naye highs ko choa tha, jo ek naya reference point bana, halankeh aaj ka price action GBP/USD ko Friday ki growth ka pura faida uthane nahi diya. Mera khayal hai ke kal subah ya din ke aghaz mein thoda upward bounce hoga, jo ek mazeed decline ke liye raasta banayega, jo 1.3149 level tak jaye ga. Kal ki news, khaaskar U.S. GDP data, bohot zyada movement ka sabab ban sakti hai.

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD ka 4-hour chart pichle chand mahino se ek strong bullish trend ko reflect karta hai, jo ke liquidity grabs aur fair value gaps (FVGs) ke fill hone ki wajah se tha. April se price action ne higher highs aur higher lows ka silsila dikhaya, jo ek solid uptrend ka izhar karta hai. Key liquidity areas aur FVGs ne market ko guide karne mein central role ada kiya. April ke mahine se price 1.2350 aur 1.2650 ke darmiyan consolidation phase mein phansi rahi, jahan multiple FVGs aur liquidity zones inhi levels ke qareeb the. Market ne dheere dheere momentum build kiya aur early June mein is range se breakout hua jab price ne 1.2650 resistance level ko cross kiya, jo strong bullish sentiment ki wajah se tha. Is breakout ne ek bara rally shuru ki, jisme price 1.2850 ke region ki taraf barh gaya, jahan ek aur liquidity zone target kiya gaya.



June ke aakhri dino aur July mein, pair ko 1.2850 se 1.3000 ke aas paas resistance ka samna tha, jiski wajah se ek consolidation period aya jab price rally ke dauran banay gaye FVGs ko fill kar raha tha. Magar bullish bias intact raha, kyun ke price 1.2650 support level ke upar tha, jo neeche ke levels par strong buying interest ka izhar tha. Is consolidation ne mazeed bullish leg ke liye raasta banaya, jo August ke aghaz mein dekhne ko mila jab price ne 1.3000 resistance ko break kiya. August ke dauran, price apna upward trajectory jari rakha, aur 1.3100 se upar tak pahunch gaya, 1.3200 level ko target karte hue. Is move mein pehle ke FVGs fill huye aur key levels ke upar liquidity clear hui, jo bullish trend ki taqat ka izhar tha. Chart par 1.3000 level ki ahmiyat bhi dekhai gayi, jo is dauran ek crucial support aur resistance zone ke tor par kaam kar raha tha.

September ke aghaz mein, price ne thoda pullback liya 1.3200 region se, aur 1.3050 se 1.3100 support zone ko test kar raha hai. Ye pullback broader uptrend ke andar ek healthy correction lagta hai, jo market ko mazeed strength ikathi karne ka mauqa dega taake woh phir se upar push kar sake. 1.3100 ke neeche liquidity ka hona is baat ki nishani hai ke ye level ek strong support ka kaam karega, jo deeper retracement ko rokne mein madadgar ho sakta hai.

Nateeja yeh hai ke GBP/USD ka 4-hour chart bullish trend ke continuation ko suggest karta hai, aur price ka 1.3000 level ke upar rehna likely hai. Traders ko 1.3050 se 1.3100 area mein potential buying opportunities par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke agar yeh zone successfully defend kiya gaya, to ek nai rally 1.3200 aur usse upar ki taraf dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Magar, agar price 1.3000 ke neeche break karta hai, to ek deeper correction ka khatara ho sakta hai, jo agle major support 1.2850 tak jaa sakta hai. Overall outlook bullish hai, magar short-term mein thoda ehtiyaat karne ki zaroorat hai jab market recent gains ko digest kar raha hai.

GBP/USD Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka analysis abhi open hai. GBP/USD pair ne dheere dheere bearish correction ka rukh ikhtiyar kiya hai. Aap kyun samajhte hain ke price sirf 1.2664 se 1.3264 tak ke wave ka 50% hi retrace kar sakti hai? Kyun yeh 61.7% ya 76.3% tak nahi gir sakti? Aap ka reasoning zyada wazeh nahi hai. Agar yeh bas aap ka personal andaaza hai, to mazeed wazeh karen — cheezon ko sahi naam se bulana behtar hota hai jab tak koi ban ka risk na ho.

Main dekh raha hoon ke 1.2963 ka aap ka 50% mark ke neeche jaane ka imkan hai. Mera minimum target 1.2779 ke zone ke mutabiq hai, lekin pehle main 1.3019 ke area ko aim kar raha hoon. Mere paas ek strategy hai aur main din ke andar sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Ham agle hafte ke end tak 1.3499 ke qareeb ya kam az kam is target ke kareeb close karenge.



Monday se, mujhe umeed hai ke GBP/USD pair apne 1.3064 support level ki taraf girawat jari rakhega. Yeh pair market ke opening par neeche ki taraf move kar sakta hai, kyun ke kal se shuru hone wala bearish momentum abhi tak jari hai. Magar, ek chhota pullback bhi ho sakta hai 1.3149 ke resistance tak, jahan se ek reversal hote hue pair dobara 1.3064 ki taraf ja sakta hai. Agar resistance 1.3149 par breach ho jata hai aur pair wahan se upar stabilize karne mein kamyab hota hai, to hamein ek fresh upward impulse ke liye tayar rehna chahiye jo 1.3319 tak le ja sakta hai.

Agar 1.3064 toot jata hai, to mujhe 1.2969 tak girawat ka andaza hai, halaan ke mujhe shak hai ke hum shayad 1.299 par ruk jayein aur wahan se reversal shuru ho. Yeh pair mumkin hai ke 1.299 se neeche gir jaye, khaaskar jab yeh chhota level iss saal chaar martaba test ho chuka hai lekin sustain nahi kar saka. Imkanat barh rahe hain ke hum is correction phase ke doran 1.299 ke neeche na gir sakein.

GBP/USD pair technical analysis:

US dollar ki qeemat us waqt kam hui jab aik weekly survey ne dikhaya ke US unemployment benefits maangne walon ki tadaad barh gayi, magar selling ka rujhan us waqt peak par tha jab ISM survey ne services sector mein unexpected tez girawat dikhai. Iska nateeja yeh nikla ke British pound ki qeemat US dollar ke muqable mein 1.2777 resistance level par ponch gayi, jo ke do hafton se ziada ka buland tareen level tha, aur phir Thursday ke aghaz mein 1.2740 level ke qareeb settle ho gayi, ek American holiday aur British parliamentary elections ke intezar ke darmiyan.

Economic calendar ke nateejon ke mutabiq... US ISM Services PMI June mein 48.8% tak ponch gaya, jo ke activity mein contraction ka ishara hai, May ke 53.8% se neeche. Yeh girawat expectations ke muqable mein significant thi kyunke consensus ne 52.5% ka andaza lagaya tha. Kul mila kar, service companies American economy ka sab se bara sector hai. Markets is loss ke peemane par react kar rahe hain aur yeh bet lagaya ja raha hai ke Federal Reserve September mein US interest rates cut karne ke liye khud ko confident mehsoos karega. Jawab mein, US bond yields gir gayi, dollar ki qeemat kam hui, aur stock prices barh gayi.

ISM report ne dikhaya ke US companies jo naye orders ke barhne ki umeed kar rahe the, woh 47.3% tak gir gayi, jo ke Great Financial Crisis ke baad sab se kam level tha aur 2001 ki mandi se bhi neeche tha. Price index ne June mein 56.3% record kiya, jo ke May ke 58.1% se 1.8 percentage points kam tha. Ispar tajziya karte hue, ING Bank ke analysts ne kaha: "Yeh zaroor September mein Fed ke liye rate cut karne ka mauqa mazboot banata hai kyunke yeh weak growth, slowing inflation, aur deteriorating jobs market ke saare boxes tick karta hai." "Fed ek mandi paida karna nahi chahta agar usse bacha ja sakta hai."

Kal, US Labor Department ne report kiya ke nayi unemployment benefits maangne walon ki tadaad pichhle hafte 4,000 se barh kar 238,000 tak ponch gayi. Consensus forecast 235 hazaar ke level ka andaza lagaya gaya tha. Apni taraf se, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ne Tuesday ko kaha ke agar labor market kharab hota hai to interest rates kam karne ka ek mauqa hai. Yeh ek signal tha ke Fed inflation ko 2.0% target par moderate karne se pehle interest rates cut karne par khula hoga.

Iska matlab yeh hai ke jobs market par bohot zyada bojh hai ke woh interest rate cuts paida kare jo bohot se US households, businesses, aur investors chah rahe hain.

GBP/USD forecast aaj ke liye:

Jaisa ke pehle kaha gaya, GBP/USD price ka 1.2775 resistance ke upar stabilize hona bulls ko mazeed upar ki taraf movement karne mein madad dega. Mazeed bullish control ke liye agla stop 1.2830 hoga, aur phir baat chalegi ke 1.3000 psychological resistance area par wapas jaa sakein. Yeh tab mumkin hoga jab US job numbers kamzor hon aur British parliamentary elections ke nateejon se sterling par yaqeen wapas aaye. Doosri taraf, isi dauran daily chart par, 1.2600 ka support level bears ke control ke liye sab se aham rahega.

GBP/USD

Pound Sterling ka Halat aur Market Analysis
Pound Sterling ne North American trading hours mein apne major peers ke khilaf mixed performance dikhayi, aur 1.3120 ke aas paas trade karta raha. British currency Asia-Pacific currencies ke muqable mein kamzor hui, lekin European currencies ke muqable mein strong rahi. Is movement ke peeche kaafi hadd tak Euro ke struggles ka haath tha, jisme European Central Bank (ECB) ke September mein rate cuts ke bare mein afwahein barh rahi hain. Yeh speculation Spain aur Germany ke chheeh baraay state mein inflation data ke slow hone se payda hui, jo Euro par downward pressure ka sabab bani.

Limited UK Economic Data aur Market Sentiment:

Is haftay UK economy se koi khaas data release nahi hui, is wajah se Pound Sterling zyada market sentiment se mutasir raha. Traders ziada tar external factors par nazar rakhe hue hain, aur agla ahem event US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures ka release hoga. Lekin, price movements ke bare mein zyadah umeed nahi hai, kyunke Q2 annualized GDP growth ko 2.8% ke aas paas stable rehne ki pehle se umeed hai. Is liye, UK currency ka asar ziada tar global developments, khaaskar US se mutaliq ho sakta hai.

US PCE Inflation Data par Nazar:

Is haftay ka sab se intezaar kiya jane wala data US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index hai. Investors is data ko closely dekh rahe hain taake US mein inflation ka agla rukh samajh sakein. Agar inflation barqarar rehti hai ya kum hoti hai, to yeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhawa dega. Iska asar bhi Pound ke movement par hoga, kyunke US monetary policy mein kisi bhi significant tabdeeli se global financial markets mein adjustments ho sakti hain.

GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:

Moving averages abhi turant support provide karne ke liye kaafi door hain. Traders trend channel ke lower band par bounce ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke guzishta 6 mahino se 1.3120 ke level par strong hold kar raha hai. Agar yeh level toot gaya, to agla potential support zone 1.3047 par hoga, jo August mein resistance ka kaam kar chuka hai. Kisi bhi further downside movement par 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 1.3186 aur critical level 1.3100 additional support provide kar sakte hain.

Upside Potential:

Agar buyers market mein wapas control hasil karna chaahte hain, to unhe 1.3200 ka mark breach karna hoga. Is level ke upar jaane par Pound ko mazeed gains mil sakte hain, jahan 1.3441 ka two-year high agla significant resistance point hoga. Agar yeh level decisively breach hota hai, to currency ko March 23, 2022 ka daily high 1.3294 aur March 1, 2022 ka swing high 1.3438 tak push kiya jaa sakta hai.

Market Sentiment aur Buyers ka Control:

Market sentiment overall is waqt ahem role ada karega Pound ke direction mein. Buyers filhaal cautious hain aur economic data se more definitive signals ka intezaar kar rahe hain pehle ke woh koi bara move karein. Agar 1.3200 ka resistance breach hota hai, to yeh buyer confidence ke wapas aanay ka ishara ho sakta hai. Lekin agar support levels hold kartay hain, to sellers ke liye Pound ko neeche push karna mushkil hoga, aur ek recovery ke chances nazar aane lagenge.

GBP/USD Ke Trend aur Reversals
Hamari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ki price behavior par mabni hai. Market mein notable kami aayi hai, aur aise asraat hain jo zyada neeche jaane ki taraf ishara karte hain. Yeh sambhavna mazboot hai ke yeh 1.3162 ka critical support level tak pahunchega. Agar bears is momentum ka faida uthate hain, to downtrend barqarar rehne ki umeed hai. Ideal scenario yeh hoga ke GBP/USD jald 1.3230 tak gire. Lekin agar neeche ki taraf harkat rukti hai, to yeh pair 1.3423 ki taraf phir se upar aa sakta hai, pehle iski kami ka silsila shuru karne se pehle. Yahan tak ke yeh kehna mushkil hai ke yeh pair upar ki taraf todenge ya girega, lekin dabao abhi bhi GBP/USD ki kami ki taraf hai. Yeh situation sabse zyada mumkin lagti hai, aur hamein 1.3237–1.3458 ke daira mein volatility dekhne ko milegi. Aham sawaal yeh hai ke aakhir price kis taraf breakout karegi. Mujhe lagta hai ke breakdown 1.3237 se neeche hoga, khaaskar jab aham fundamental data release hoga, jo price movements ke liye zyada potential banayega.



GBP/USD ke liye bearish trajectory ka tayun kal dekhne ko mila jab isne 1.3419 level ko do martaba test kiya. Dusri martaba test ke baad yeh wazeh ho gaya ke price neeche ki taraf jaane wala hai. Halankeh girewai umeed se zyada tezi se hui, lekin ek sell position mein munafa dekhna hamesha acha hota hai. 1.3312 ka support todna mujhe hairaan kar gaya; ab yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke agla qadam kya hoga. Yahan se, mujhe umeed hai ke price 1.3312 tak upar jaayegi, phir se 1.3221 ko test karne se pehle neeche aayegi. Aisa lagta hai ke UK ke bade news events pichle hafte Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ki meetings ke sath khatam ho gaye hain. Ab ke liye, doosre asraat kam ahmiyat rakhte hain aur market ko khaas tor par asar nahi daal rahe. GBP/USD abhi bhi 1.3286 ki taraf gir sakta hai, lekin isay pehle 1.3326 ka support todna hoga, jo filhal bechne walon se roka hua hai. Bechne walon ka maqsad 1.3237 ka level hai, jahan se upar ki taraf correction shuru ho sakti hai.

British Pound (GBP) Ki Kami Aur Market Ke Asraat
British pound (GBP) ne US dollar (USD) ke khilaf Mangal ko kami dekhi, jo ke ek haftay se zyada ki sab se kam level par aa gaya. Yeh ghatavari movement asal mein US ke kamzor economic data aur Middle East mein barhte hue geopolitical tensions ka natija tha. US ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ka data market ki umeedon se neeche rehne se sterling mein kami aayi. Is ke ilawa, Iran ke Israel par missile hamlon ke baad Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan barhti hui tensions ne bhi risk appetite ko kam kar diya, jo British pound par bhari pada.

Sterling ke liye economic calendar kaafi khamosh raha, lekin investors ne Thursday ko hone wale Bank of England (BoE) ke monetary policy hearing par tawajjoh di. BoE ka interest rates par faisla aur is ke saath bayan British pound ke liye aham rahnumai faraham karega.



Amreeka mein mixed economic data releases, jismein JOLTS job openings data aur ISM Manufacturing Employment Index shamil hain, US labor market ki muskilat ko dikhate hain. Job openings ka izafa hiring rates mein zaroori izafa nahi kar raha, jo labor market mein supply aur demand ke darmiyan mismatch ko darust karta hai.

Middle East mein barhte hue geopolitical tensions, jo Iran ke Israel par missile hamlon ki wajah se shuru hui, market mein uncertainty aur risk aversion ko aur barhawa diya. Amreeka ki taraf se retaliation ka elan ne bhi wide conflict ki sambhavnayein barha di.

Technical nazariye se, GBP/USD pair 1.3300 level se neeche chala gaya, jo ke aage aur kami ka darshak hai. 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.3100 ke aas-paas ek ahem support level ban gaya hai. Lekin pehle ke swing low se upar 1.3000 tak aur kami aane ka rasta asaan nahi hai. Agar pair peeche hata, to yeh 1.3265 ke support level ki taraf ja sakta hai, aur phir 20-day moving average 1.3170 tak. Aage ki kami 1.2300 se 1.3365 tak ke uptrend ka 23.6% Fibonacci retracement dekhne ka sabab ban sakti hai, jo phir 1.3000 tak le ja sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar upar ki taraf pressure phir se shuru hota hai, to price 1.3400 area ko target kar sakti hai, aur shayad February 2022 mein milne wale resistance level 1.3640 tak bhi pahunche.

GBP/USD
Weekly chart se yeh nazar aata hai ke buyers ne is hafte ke shuruat mein GBP/USD price par control karne ki koshish ki, lekin wo fail ho gaye. Pichle hafte bhi kuch aisa hi dekha gaya. Iske ilawa, dollar bullish trend ki taraf ja raha hai, jo GBP/USD price par aur dabao daal sakta hai. Isliye, Bollinger Bands ka istemal GBP/USD trend ka tajziya karne ke liye kiya ja sakta hai. Natije ke tor par, Bollinger Bands bhi downward trend ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Is liye, humein is pair mein sales opportunities dhoondni chahiye.

GBP/USD ka 4-hour chart ek wide sideways range dikhata hai. Bollinger Band indicator ka istemal karte hue, mujhe yeh nazar aata hai ke price range 1.3280 se 1.3350 tak hai. Is hafte, price ne upar jaane ki koshish ki, lekin buyers ka momentum kamzor ho gaya, jis wajah se chaar ghanto mein price upar neeche hoti rahi. Is dauran, GBP/USD dono taraf trading kar sakta hai.



Dollar ki taraf dekhen to economic outlook kafi positive lag raha hai, jo iski aage ki growth ko support kar sakta hai. Jab Fed banks interest rates badhane ka irada rakhte hain, to dollar aur mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, jo GBP/USD ki value mein kami ka sabab banega. Isliye, is pair ke liye sahi selling signal ki talash karna bohat zaroori hai.

Agar hum is pair ke liye buy signals dhoond rahe hain, to 1.3250-1.3290 ke darmiyan levels par tawajjoh deni chahiye, jahan potential profit level 1.3270-1.3345 ho sakta hai. Stop loss ko 1.3275 ke demand level ke neeche rakhna ek aqalmandi ka qadam hoga. Yeh bhi yaad rahe ke sell signal 1.3240 se 1.3340 ke darmiyan dikhayi de sakta hai, aur agar hum mauqa istemal karne ka faisla karen to stop loss ko 1.3390 par rakh sakte hain.