Gbp/usd

GBPUSD Currency Pair Analysis
H-1 Hour

Kal ke Asian session ke aghaz mein, GBPUSD ka movement neeche nahi gaya. Is ke bajaye, yeh currency pair pehle oopar chala gaya jab ke pehle support level 1.3171 ko break karne ke baad yeh 1.3321 tak pohanch gaya. Lekin kuch dair baad, GBPUSD dobara neeche gir gaya aur agla support 1.3171 par bhi break ho gaya. GBPUSD ke dobara girne ka reason yeh tha ke candle abhi tak shoulder area 1.3221 par break nahi kar saka.

Agar h1 timeframe se analysis karein, toh yeh Friday tak GBPUSD ke aur zyada neeche girne ka imkaan hai. Is ki wajah yeh hai ke ek head and shoulder pattern form ho chuka hai. Neckline area ko break karne ka matlab yeh hai ke yeh pattern valid hai. Sab se important baat yeh hai ke resistance 1.3221 ko break na hone dein kyunki yeh GBPUSD ko turant neeche jane se rok sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, GBPUSD ke girne ka strong reason yeh bhi hai ke yeh currency pair supply area 1.3224 ko break nahi kar saka. Kismat se, jab kal yeh oopar gaya, toh GBPUSD apne qareebi resistance se zyada nahi barh saka.

Agar Ichimoku indicator ki madad se analysis karein, toh GBPUSD ke girne ke movement ke baad se candle ki position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche hai, jo ke yeh show karta hai ke trend abhi bhi bearish hai. Yeh indicator yeh bhi dikhata hai ke jab tak koi nayi intersection nahi hoti, GBPUSD ke girne ka imkaan abhi bhi zyada hai.

Wahin, stochastic indicator yeh show karta hai ke GBPUSD ki current condition oversold hai. Yeh is baat se sabit hota hai ke line level 20 ko touch kar chuki hai. Lekin jab ke position abhi bhi oopar ke taraf hai, humein phir bhi ehtiyaat baratni chahiye kyunki GBPUSD ke pehle girne wale movement ka rukh badal kar oopar ja sakta hai.

Toh aaj ke analysis ka nateeja yeh hai ke GBPUSD currency pair ke neeche girne ke imkaan abhi bhi hai kyunki H1 timeframe mein ek head and shoulder pattern ban chuka hai jo neeche break ho gaya hai. Is ke ilawa, candle abhi tak supply area 1.3224 par break nahi kar saka. Is liye, mein sab ko recommend karta hoon jo is pair mein trade kar rahe hain ke sirf sell positions par focus karein. Take profit target ke liye, aap 1.3038 ke qareebi support par place kar sakte hain aur stop loss ko 1.3237 ke aas paas rakhein.

Technical Analysis of Foreign Exchange

GBP/USD

British pound ne US dollar ke muqable mein do saal ki bulandiyon ko choo liya hai, jab global stock markets mein naye se raily shuru hui. Ek market expert ne kaha hai ke koi bhi kamzori sirf aur sirf zyada kharidari ka sabab banegi. Aitbaar ke qabil trading platforms ke mutabiq, GBP/USD pair 1.3265 resistance level tak barh gaya hai, jo ke do saal mein iski sabse unchi satah hai. Iski kamiyabi us waqt aayi jab European stock markets outperform kar rahi hain aur traders America aur Britain ke darmiyan mukhtalif monetary policy ke topic par khel rahe hain.

Aam tor par, US stock markets din ki shuruat neeche se karne ka iraada rakhti hain, lekin German aur British markets recover kar rahi hain aur taqreeban aadha percent barh rahi hain, jo European assets ki demand ko zahir karta hai, aur yeh pound ke liye madadgar hai. Iss par apni raye dete hue, JPMorgan ke forex trading desk se aayi ek note mein kaha gaya: "Meri tamam shakoon ke bawajood, sterling aik rock star ki tarah trade kar rahi hai jab hum 1.3145 ke triple top se asaani se bahar aa rahe hain Jerome Powell ke bayanat ke baad."

GBP/USD pair ne Jumma ke din surge kiya jab Powell ne September mein US interest rates kam karne ka wazeh iraada dikhaya, aur financial markets ko is had tak is ke irade ki shiddat se herat hui. Pehle, Fed ne is baat par zor diya tha ke wo US interest rate cuts par ahtiyaat se kaam karega, lekin Powell ka khitaab ek "waqfa" ka lamha lagta hai.

Dar haqeeqat, financial markets ko accha odds mila ke Fed easing cycle ko ek bara 50bp hike ke sath shuru karega, jo ke uske khitaab se pehle ek namumkin scenario samjha ja raha tha. Nateeja yeh hua ke US dollar mein sell-off shuru ho gayi jo Tuesday tak barh gayi aur GBP/USD ne 2024 ka naye high 1.3260 ko chhoo liya.

GBP/USD ke liye upar ke levels mein koi khaas baat nahi hai siwai ek choti si pivot point 1.3275/00 par, aur hum yahan GBP mein meaningful reinvest karne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahe hain, yeh samajhte hue ke aane wale sessions mein 1.3145 pivot ke qareeb dips ko khareedna chahiye.

Sterling ko Bank of England ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke Jumma ke din diye gaye bayan se bhi support mila, jisme unhone kaha ke abhi yeh kehna jaldi hoga ke inflation ke khilaf jung khatam ho gayi hai, jo ke bank ko dobara interest rates kam karne mein jaldi nahi karega. Analysts kehte hain ke Bailey inflation ke hawalay se relatively relaxed lagte hain aur humne BRC mein lagbhag teen saal mein pehli martaba kami dekhi hai, lekin girti hui prices ko currency ke liye ek achi baat samjha ja raha hai.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) ne kaha ke uske store price changes ke measure ne dikhaya ke August mein prices 0.3% gir gayi, jo ke July ke +0.2% se neeche hai. Yeh teen mahine ka average 0.0% se neeche hai, aur dukaan ki prices mein salana izafa October 2021 ke baad se apni sabse neeche satah par hai. UK mein 2023 se inflation kam ho rahi hai, lekin iska matlab yeh hai ke izafa sirf dheema hua hai. Aam tor par price declines shoppers ko tasalli dete hain jabke aik dairay ke extraordinary inflation ke baad goods ka absolute level girne lagta hai aur purchasing power barhne lagti hai.




Aaj ka GBP/USD Forecast

Agar daily chart ke performance par dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD price ke liye general trend bullish hai, lekin yeh bhi yaad rakhna chahiye ke aaj ke US economic data ke nataij sentiment par asar dalenge, jisse US dollar ki kamzori jaari rehne ka imkaan hai ya phir ulta GBP/USD currency pair ke direction ko neeche ki taraf mod sakta hai, jo ke 1.3045 ke support level ke neeche break karne par zor dega.

GBP/USD ke price movement ka live analysis dekhte huay, GBP/USD buyers ne 1.2445 ke low se upar ki taraf momentum mein pair ko doosre impulse zone mein push kiya, jisse ek bearish reaction foran trigger hui. Filhal, H4 chart par critical level pound-dollar pair ke liye 1.3197 hai. Agar buyers price ko is level se upar push karte hain, toh uptrend dobara shuru ho sakti hai, aur resistance level 1.3265 ko break karne ki second attempt ho sakti hai. Lekin agar bears is level ke neeche apna control bana lete hain, toh GBP/USD ki price 1.3071 aur 1.3023 ke aas-paas pehle impulse zone ke upar boundary ki taraf girne ke chances hain, jahan se support levels se dobara upward movement shuru ho sakti hai. Aaj ke trading session ka closure 1.3197 level ke aas-paas dekhna zaroori hoga. 4-hour chart ke liye, filhal reversal ki koi possibility nahi hai, kyunke ab tak strong growth ko correct karne ya ek clear minimum establish karne ke liye pullback nahi hua. Abhi tak sirf ek substantial pullback ke chances lag rahe hain.



Greenback ke liye ye expect kiya ja raha hai ke wo apne recent rebound ko zyada dair tak maintain nahi kar sakega, kyunke Federal Reserve (Fed) September ke meeting se interest rates ko reduce karna shuru karne wala hai. Traders ke darmiyan yeh debate hai ke Fed 25 ya 50 basis-points (bps) ki cut se policy-easing shuru karega, lekin rate reduction almost priced in hai. Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium ke dauran Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish commentary ke baad, ye strong speculation hai ke September se Fed interest rates ko cut karega. Powell ne kaha ke “ab policy ko adjust karne ka waqt aa gaya hai,” aur is baat par focus kiya ke US central bank ko ab zyada labor market ke downside risks ki fikar hai, jabke inflation wapas 2% ke desired rate par aane ke raaste par hai.

Investors ko ab United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) report ka intezaar hai jo ke Friday ko publish hogi. PCE report ke mutabiq year-on-year core inflation ka rate June ke 2.6% se barh ke 2.7% hone ki umeed hai, jabke monthly figures mein 0.2% ka stable growth expect kiya ja raha hai. Ye inflation data market speculation par significant asar dal sakti hai regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September ke monetary policy decision. Thursday ke session mein UK economic calendar khaali hai, lekin investors ka focus US ke bohat saare data par hoga. Ek key point second estimate hai Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data ka, jo 12:30 GMT par publish hoga. Economists expect karte hain ke data revise nahi hoga, aur US economy ka 2.8% ke annualized basis par expand hone ki tasdeeq karega. GDP data ka US Dollar par koi khaas asar nahi hoga jab tak ke ismein koi substantial revision na aaye. Iske ilawa, weekly US Jobless Claims numbers bhi due hain, jo agar significantly barhti hain, toh markets ko move kar sakti hain.

USD currency pair ne bohot acchi performance dikhayi hai, jo ke improved risk sentiment aur UK aur US economic data ke expectations se driven hai. Kal, Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein apne gains ko extend kiya, jo ke US Retail Sales data ke positive market sentiment se hua. Ye data expectations se zyada thi, jisse US recession ke khauf ko kam kiya aur global economic stability ke liye optimistic outlook bana. Is wajah se, risk-sensitive currencies jese ke Pound ko faida hua, jab investors ka risk appetite barh gaya aur US Dollar par downward pressure aya. Pound ki strength ko UK ke July ke aane wale retail sales report ke anticipation ne aur barhawa diya hai. Analysts ko umeed hai ke ye data growth ko reflect karegi, jo currency ko aur support karega. Ye optimism UK economy ki resilience par hai, jo global challenges ke bawajood stability dikhati hai. Isliye, investors Pound ko pakad kar rakhna pasand kar rahe hain, aur umeed kar rahe hain ke strong retail figures currency ko aur boost karengi.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkil mein hai kyunki market ne Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein 25 basis point rate cut ko almost fully price in kar liya hai. Fed ka dovish stance aur recent weaker-than-expected inflation aur labor market data ne ye consensus banaya hai ke central bank apni monetary policy ko shayad jaldi ease kare. Ye expectation Dollar par additional pressure daal rahi hai, jo Pound ke muqablay mein recent decline ka ek reason hai. GBP/USD pair ki recent movements complex factors ka reflection hain, jinmein improved US economic data, UK retail sales growth ki expectations, aur shifting Federal Reserve policies shamil hain. Ye dynamics aage bhi pair ke trajectory ko influence karti rahengi, aur dono taraf ke upcoming economic indicators par nazar rakhi jayegi. GBP/USD pair daily chart par strength dikhata hai, jahan British pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein gain kiya hai. Rising wedge se breakdown ke baad, 50-day Simple Moving Average ne support provide kiya, jisne price ko rebound karne aur upward movement ko continue karne mein madad ki. Pair ab 1.3011 level ko target kar raha hai. Lekin, agar price reverse hoti hai aur immediate support ke neeche break karti hai, to ye market sentiment mein shift ka signal ho sakta hai, jo uptrend support line ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai

British pound ne US dollar ke muqable mein do saal ki bulandiyon ko choo liya hai, jab global stock markets mein naye se raily shuru hui. Ek market expert ne kaha hai ke koi bhi kamzori sirf aur sirf zyada kharidari ka sabab banegi. Aitbaar ke qabil trading platforms ke mutabiq, GBP/USD pair 1.3265 resistance level tak barh gaya hai, jo ke do saal mein iski sabse unchi satah hai. Iski kamiyabi us waqt aayi jab European stock markets outperform kar rahi hain aur traders America aur Britain ke darmiyan mukhtalif monetary policy ke topic par khel rahe hain.

Aam tor par, US stock markets din ki shuruat neeche se karne ka iraada rakhti hain, lekin German aur British markets recover kar rahi hain aur taqreeban aadha percent barh rahi hain, jo European assets ki demand ko zahir karta hai, aur yeh pound ke liye madadgar hai. Iss par apni raye dete hue, JPMorgan ke forex trading desk se aayi ek note mein kaha gaya: "Meri tamam shakoon ke bawajood, sterling aik rock star ki tarah trade kar rahi hai jab hum 1.3145 ke triple top se asaani se bahar aa rahe hain Jerome Powell ke bayanat ke baad."

GBP/USD pair ne Jumma ke din surge kiya jab Powell ne September mein US interest rates kam karne ka wazeh iraada dikhaya, aur financial markets ko is had tak is ke irade ki shiddat se herat hui. Pehle, Fed ne is baat par zor diya tha ke wo US interest rate cuts par ahtiyaat se kaam karega, lekin Powell ka khitaab ek "waqfa" ka lamha lagta hai.

Dar haqeeqat, financial markets ko accha odds mila ke Fed easing cycle ko ek bara 50bp hike ke sath shuru karega, jo ke uske khitaab se pehle ek namumkin scenario samjha ja raha tha. Nateeja yeh hua ke US dollar mein sell-off shuru ho gayi jo Tuesday tak barh gayi aur GBP/USD ne 2024 ka naye high 1.3260 ko chhoo liya.

GBP/USD ke liye upar ke levels mein koi khaas baat nahi hai siwai ek choti si pivot point 1.3275/00 par, aur hum yahan GBP mein meaningful reinvest karne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahe hain, yeh samajhte hue ke aane wale sessions mein 1.3145 pivot ke qareeb dips ko khareedna chahiye.

Sterling ko Bank of England ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke Jumma ke din diye gaye bayan se bhi support mila, jisme unhone kaha ke abhi yeh kehna jaldi hoga ke inflation ke khilaf jung khatam ho gayi hai, jo ke bank ko dobara interest rates kam karne mein jaldi nahi karega. Analysts kehte hain ke Bailey inflation ke hawalay se relatively relaxed lagte hain aur humne BRC mein lagbhag teen saal mein pehli martaba kami dekhi hai, lekin girti hui prices ko currency ke liye ek achi baat samjha ja raha hai.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) ne kaha ke uske store price changes ke measure ne dikhaya ke August mein prices 0.3% gir gayi, jo ke July ke +0.2% se neeche hai. Yeh teen mahine ka average 0.0% se neeche hai, aur dukaan ki prices mein salana izafa October 2021 ke baad se apni sabse neeche satah par hai. UK mein 2023 se inflation kam ho rahi hai, lekin iska matlab yeh hai ke izafa sirf dheema hua hai. Aam tor par price declines shoppers ko tasalli dete hain jabke aik dairay ke extraordinary inflation ke baad goods ka absolute level girne lagta hai aur purchasing power barhne lagti hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ne bohot acchi performance dikhayi hai, jo ke improved risk sentiment aur UK aur US economic data ke expectations se driven hai. Kal, Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein apne gains ko extend kiya, jo ke US Retail Sales data ke positive market sentiment se hua. Ye data expectations se zyada thi, jisse US recession ke khauf ko kam kiya aur global economic stability ke liye optimistic outlook bana. Is wajah se, risk-sensitive currencies jese ke Pound ko faida hua, jab investors ka risk appetite barh gaya aur US Dollar par downward pressure aya. Pound ki strength ko UK ke July ke aane wale retail sales report ke anticipation ne aur barhawa diya hai. Analysts ko umeed hai ke ye data growth ko reflect karegi, jo currency ko aur support karega. Ye optimism UK economy ki resilience par hai, jo global challenges ke bawajood stability dikhati hai. Isliye, investors Pound ko pakad kar rakhna pasand kar rahe hain, aur umeed kar rahe hain ke strong retail figures currency ko aur boost karengi.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar mushkil mein hai kyunki market ne Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein 25 basis point rate cut ko almost fully price in kar liya hai. Fed ka dovish stance aur recent weaker-than-expected inflation aur labor market data ne ye consensus banaya hai ke central bank apni monetary policy ko shayad jaldi ease kare. Ye expectation Dollar par additional pressure daal rahi hai, jo Pound ke muqablay mein recent decline ka ek reason hai. GBP/USD pair ki recent movements complex factors ka reflection hain, jinmein improved US economic data, UK retail sales growth ki expectations, aur shifting Federal Reserve policies shamil hain. Ye dynamics aage bhi pair ke trajectory ko influence karti rahengi, aur dono taraf ke upcoming economic indicators par nazar rakhi jayegi. GBP/USD pair daily chart par strength dikhata hai, jahan British pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein gain kiya hai. Rising wedge se breakdown ke baad, 50-day Simple Moving Average ne support provide kiya, jisne price ko rebound karne aur upward movement ko continue karne mein madad ki. Pair ab 1.3011 level ko target kar raha hai. Lekin, agar price reverse hoti hai aur immediate support ke neeche break karti hai, to ye market sentiment mein shift ka signal ho sakta hai, jo uptrend support line ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai

GBP/USD

H4 time pe dikhayi deta hai ke price kafi had tak decrease hui hai, aur hum dekh saktay hain ke is decline ke dauran price ne foran MA50 aur MA200 lines ko cross kiya, jo is baar ke bearish current ki strength ko zahir karta hai. Price decrease hone se pehle Fresh supply area se Fresh Demand ki taraf gaya. Neeche aate hue, price ne sell momentum candle bhi form ki, jo yeh dikhata hai ke candle ki direction mein price ko neeche le jane ki koshish zaroor hogi. Target area agla support area aur RBS area hai.

Isliye, humein short positions leni chahiye jab price dobara MA200/MA50 area tak pohanchay. Data bhi confirm karta hai ke Bollinger band ne dobara downward open hona shuru kar diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke current bearish trend H4 mein continue karega. Ab dekhte hain H1 mein kya hua:

Price ne H1 time frame mein pehle ke H4 bearish trend ke against ek upward correction dekha. Is waqt H1 mein, yeh saaf hai ke price ne buy momentum candle form ki hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke price ko upar jane ki koshish karega. Filhal, price ko MA50 line ne roka hua hai, jo ek aisi deewar hai jo price ko H4 ke pehle ke direction mein wapis neeche laane ki koshish karegi. Is ke ilawa, MA50 aur MA200 move kar rahe hain, jo dikhata hai ke trend bullish se bearish mein badal gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke abhi trend bearish hai.

GBP/USD ke liye, aapko sirf buying opportunities par focus karna chahiye, kyun ke do buying levels hain. Agar price red channel ke upar stabilize karta hai aur resistance level 1.3145 ke upar chala jata hai, to aap 1.3190 tak buy kar sakte hain. Aap tab bhi buy kar sakte hain jab price 1.3170 ke neeche jata hai aur dobara upar bounce karta hai.

GBP/USD Prices ka Gehrai Mein Jaiza
Hamara mojooda diyaan GBP/USD currency pair ki price action par hai. GBP/USD currency pair ne na sirf 1.3219 ka level chooa, balkay is mark ke neeche hourly chart par ek position bhi hasil kar li. Lekin, yeh uptrend puri tarah se khatam nahi hui hai, is liye bechna (selling) abhi itna mehfooz nahi lagta. Kal maine yeh kaha tha ke 1.3189 ka level aik aisa point ho sakta hai jahan bechne ka socha ja sakta hai. Magar agar koi ziada risk lena chahta hai, to 1.3239 ke resistance level ke qareeb aik signal aa sakta hai, jo pichlay hafte ka high tha. Abhi ke liye, pound shayad 1.3189 ke qareeb close ho. Surat-e-haal abhi tak ghair yaqini hai, aur saaf samajh sirf subha tak aayegi, jis par traders apni marzi se faislay karen ge. Yehi approach mera trading strategy ka bunyadi hissa hai — sham tak mein aksar thak jata hoon, aur meri nazar dhundhla jati hai, magar subha price action meri trading ki iradey bana deta hai.




GBP/USD pair ne Asian session ke baad zameen khona shuru kiya, 1.3269 se start hui. Sellers ne local trend ko tor diya aur early support level 1.3174 ko azma rahe hain. Agar sellers 1.3174 ka mark tor dete hain (aur hourly candle neeche close hoti hai), to mujhe umeed hai ke yeh girawat 1.3089 tak jaari rahegi. Warna, mujhe lagta hai ke 1.3249 tak ek upar ki taraf move ho sakta hai, jahan se girawat dobara shuru ho sakti hai. D1 time frame ka tajziya batata hai ke aaj ki D1 candle kal ke high ko paar nahi kar saki, aur ab neeche aa gayi hai, jo ke kal ke opening ke qareeb hai. Lekin abhi tak kaafi waqt hai jab tak yeh D1 candle close nahi hoti, is liye iska final form predict karna mushkil hai. Mera shak hai ke yeh bearish overlap ke sath close karegi. Yeh pattern ek pure reversal nahi hai, balkay upper Bollinger band ke qareeb aik temporary pause ka ishara kar rahi hai, poori reversal ke bajaye, market mein kuch waqt ke liye rukawat ka signal mil raha hai.

GBP/USD D1 Chart
Aane wali Federal Reserve ki meeting jo Wednesday ko hogi, kaafi tawajjo hasil karegi. Investors intezaar kar rahe hain ke Fed koi aisa signal de jo yeh zahir kare ke woh September mein Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke dobara milne par intezar ki gayi rate cut ko lagu karne ke liye tayar hai. Halya market expectations ke mutabiq, 18 September ko kam az kam ek quarter-point rate reduction ka imkaan hai, jahan CME’s FedWatch Tool ke hisaab se 25 basis point ki rate cut ka 90% chance hai aur ek bara cut ka 10% chance. Financial markets yeh bhi umeed kar rahi hain ke Fed inflation ko apne 2% ke target ke qareeb lanay mein substantial progress ko tasleem karega, aur labor market ke hawalay se barhtay hue concerns ka bhi zikar karega. Agar aisa hota hai, to yeh ishara ho sakta hai ke Fed interest rates ko kam karne ke liye tayar hai. Fed ke policy decision ke ilawa, investors USA ke kai economic indicators par bhi nazar rakhain ge, jisme JOLTS Job Openings (June), ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), aur Nonfarm Payrolls (July) ke data shamil hain.





Agar hum technical analysis karain, ichimoku indicator ke zariye, to mojooda candle position tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke neeche hai. Yeh tab se hai jab se GBP/USD ne girawat shuru ki thi. Is recent intersection ke baad, GBP/USD ka trend ab bullish nahi raha, balkay bearish ho gaya hai. Jab tak yeh line ke neeche hai, meri tajweez hai ke GBP/USD ki movement neeche ki taraf hi jaye gi, upar nahi. Dusri taraf, stochastic indicator yeh bata raha hai ke GBP/USD is waqt oversold condition mein hai, jo ke kal ki girawat ki wajah se hai. Jaise maine upar kaha, support torne ke baad GBP/USD pehle 1.3245 ka correction kar sakta hai. Lekin mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh apne qareebi resistance ko tor payega. Aaj ke analysis ka natija yeh hai ke GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jane ka ab bhi imkaan hai, bhale hi ab yeh thoda strong lag raha hai. Wajah yeh hai ke candle ab tak 1.3255 ke supply area ko tor nahi paayi. Iske ilawa, ichimoku indicator ke mutabiq candle position tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke neeche hai, jo ke bearish trend ko zahir karta hai. Is liye, meri tajweez hai ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, unhein sirf sell positions kholne par diyaan dena chahiye. Aap apna take profit target qareebi support 1.3070 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss qareebi resistance 1.3268 par laga sakte hain.

GBP/USD H4 Chart
Aaj pound ki prices bullish level 1.2940 ko hit karne ki koshish kar rahi hain. Pichlay trading hafte mein sterling girta raha aur aglay local minimum 1.2667 tak pohanch gaya. Iss point par price ko acha support mila, jo isay 1.2788 ke level se neeche jane, girawat ko rokne aur kuch losses cover karne mein madad di. Yeh abhi bhi target area ko nahi choon rahi jahan yeh kaam kar rahi hai. Is dauran, price chart abhi tak super-trend red zone mein hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers ka pressure jaari hai. US PPI ka monthly value July mein 0.1% barh gaya hai, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq hai aur pichlay value 0.2% ke barabar tha. Is index ka annual value bhi gir kar 2.2% par aa gaya hai, jo ke pichlay saal July mein tha.

Mujhe aapse ittefaq hai, abhi pound ke reversal ke baray mein baat karna jaldi hoga. Jo sellers ne kal banaya, wo abhi tak unke liye kisi bari jeet ke barabar nahi hai. Wo ab tak kisi ahem level ko tor nahi paaye, aur yeh girawat sirf Friday ke impulse growth ka correction lag rahi hai, jo shayad abhi tak khatam nahi hui. Buyers ka pehla target 1.32091 ka mark hai. Agar wo isay torne aur consolidate karne mein kamiyab hote hain, to hum movement ka silsila 1.32297 ke level tak dekh sakte hain. Dosri taraf, sellers ko neeche ke movement ko barqarar rakhne ke liye 1.31791 ke level ko tor kar consolidate karna hoga. Girawat ka pehla target 1.31078 ka level ho sakta hai. Is movement ke liye kuch strong news dollar ke haq mein zaroori hogi, warna yeh acasi der tak pressure mein reh sakta hai.




GBP/USD exchange rate ne naye trading hafte ke aghaz mein pullback dekha, jisme yeh 1.3200 ke level se neeche chala gaya. Yeh girawat us saat dinon ke winning streak ka ikhtitam tha, jo pair ko 29-maheenay ke high 1.3230 tak le gayi thi. Pound ki kamzori ka aik hissa is wajah se bhi tha ke UK markets bank holiday ke liye band thi, jis se trading activity kam ho gayi aur US dollar mazid strong ho gaya. Market risk appetite pichlay hafton mein kam hoti nazar aayi hai, jab se Federal Reserve ne September mein interest rate cut ka tazkira kiya hai. Agle trading hafte ke economic calendar mein zyada activity nahi hai, siwai chand important data releases ke. Thursday ko, US apni second-quarter GDP figures ko publish karega, jo umeed hai ke annual rate 2.8% par hi barqarar rahega. Friday ko, investors US core personal consumption expenditure inflation data par dihaan denge, jo ke quarterly basis par 0.2% par hi expect kiya ja raha hai. Jab ke annual rate 2.7% tak barhne ka imkaan hai, market ko lagta hai ke inflation Fed ke 2% target ke kaafi qareeb hai jo September mein rate cut ke liye kafi ho sakti hai.

News #GBP/USD Pound/Dollar

forume Time™ H4

Sab ko achi din! Chaar ghante ke chart par major movement ke khilaf bechne ka mauqa hai. Iska sabab linear regression channel ka niche ki taraf mudna hai. Halankeh bechna ya bearish reversal ka intezar karna zyada behtar hoga. Lekin kyunki market H4 trend ko break kar sakti hai, hum pehle se nahi jaan sakte. Isliye H4 channel se bechne ke signal par amal karna uski direction se justify hota hai. 1.32219 ke level se bechne par ghoor kar sakte hain. Bechne wale ko apni positions ko protect karna chahiye. Agar 1.32219 ke level se upar growth hoti hai, to yeh seller ko market se bahar nikalne ki bullish interest ka saboot hai.



Nateeja yeh hai ke H4 channel ko upar ki taraf modna padega aur main H4 channel ke sath follow karna hoga. Jab reversal pattern 1.31736 tak banta hai, tab bechne ka sochunga. 4-ghante ke chart par bullish sentiment dikhayi de rahi hai, kyunki linear regression channel upar ki taraf hai. Yeh level mere system mein main level hai. Yeh trend ko determine karta hai aur bullish hai. Trend bearish intervention ki wajah se kamzor ho raha hai, jo H4 chart par linear regression channel ke south ki taraf hone se dikhayi de raha hai. Isliye upar ki taraf growth break hone ka chance hai. Iske liye zaroori hai ke bulls ki positions ke neeche merge ho jayein, jo channel ke bottom 1.31736 ke paas hain. Bears wahan move karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main H4 channel ke lower edge ke paas buying opportunity dhoondunga. Sabse pehle main 1.31736 ke level se downward movement mein pause ya opposite direction mein reaction dekhna chahta hoon. Uske baad, main expect karta hoon ke growth wapas channel ke top 1.32940 tak pahuche.

GBP/USD ki wave analysis ab complex aur ambiguous hoti ja rahi hai. Kuch arsay pehlay wave pattern convincing lag raha tha aur yeh dikhata tha ke ek bearish wave set ban raha hai jiska target 1.2300 level ke neeche hai. Magar, asal mein, U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi ke yeh scenario materialize nahi ho saka. Aur yeh demand abhi bhi barh rahi hai.
Filhaal, wave pattern itna confusing ho gaya hai ke usay parhna mushkil hai. Main aam tor par apni analysis mein simple structures ka istamaal karta hoon kyun ke complex structures mein bohot si nuances aur ambiguities hoti hain. Ab hum dekh rahay hain ke ek upward wave ne downward wave ko overlap kiya hai, jisne pehlay wali upward wave ko overlap kiya tha, aur yeh sab ek triangle ke andar hain. Filhaal jo assumption ban sakti hai wo yeh hai ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke qareeb hai aur ek balancing line 1.2600 par hai. Lekin, ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern mein fit nahi hoti, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neechay wale chart mein ek alternative wave count dikhayi gayi hai.

Market ko ek naya reason mil gaya hai buying ka.

GBP/USD ka exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points neeche gir gaya, jo ke bohot kam hai, considering ke aaj ke din ka news background kaafi strong tha. Kam az kam do FOMC members ne rate cut ke bare mein apni shakhsiyat ka izhar kiya September ki meeting ke liye. Aur kuch ghantay pehlay, U.S. ka Q2 GDP report release hui thi. U.S. economy ne 3.0% ki growth dikhayi, jabke pehlay estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh mention karna bhi zaroori hai ke U.S. economy ne Q1 ke muqablay mein dugna zyada acceleration dikhaya. Mera khayal hai ke U.S. dollar ka yeh 35 basis point ka gain insignificant hai; din ke akhri hisay tak isay zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton mein jo bearish wave form ho rahi thi, usay dekhte hue, main expect karta hoon ke pair mein sirf decline hoga. Main kisi doosray movement ka trade karne ka iraada nahi rakhta filhaal ke news background ke dauran.

Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims ka tha. Magar, is report ka value market expectations ke qareeb tha, is liye is par koi khaas reaction nahi aya. Overall, meri aur kuch doosray analysts ki raye yeh hai ke dollar bohot zyada oversold hai, aur market aglay paanch rounds ki Fed policy easing ko price kar raha hai, jabke koi guarantee nahi hai ke September mein rate cut hoga ya nahi. Mera khayal hai ke is instrument mein mazeed increase koi faida nahi rakhta, is liye main aise movements ka trade karne ka mashwara nahi dunga. GBP/USD ki wave pattern ab bhi decline ka signal deti hai. Jab se upward trend segment April 22 ko shuru hua hai aur ab yeh 5-wave form le chuka hai, to ab kam az kam ek 3-wave correction expect ki jani chahiye. Mera khayal hai ke pair ko sell karna aur targets 1.2627 ke ird gird rakhna ek acha plan ho sakta hai. Halan ke abhi tak koi signal nahi mila ke last upward wave khatam hui hai, magar ek corrective wave ka formation ab bhi expect kiya ja sakta hai.

Ek larger wave scale par, wave pattern transform ho chuka hai. Ab hum assume kar sakte hain ke ek complex aur extended upward corrective structure ban rahi hai. Is waqt yeh ek 3-wave structure hai, magar yeh 5-wave structure mein bhi badal sakti hai, jo ke kuch aur mahine ya us se zyada le sakti hai complete hone mein.

Currency pair ne haali mein 0.27% ka notable decline experience kiya hai, jo ke pichlay haftay ke multi-year peak 1.3266 ke qareeb tha. Yeh downturn ek barqarar trend ko dikhata hai, jisme pair pichlay chhay trading days mein se paanch din red mein khatam hone wala hai. Filhaal, intraday trading mein bearish sentiment mazid strong hai jab GBP/USD 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se retreat karta hai, jo ke 1.2705 par situated hai.
Mixed U.S. Economic Data ka Currency Pair par Asar aur Dollar Index ka Weak Hona

Currency pair ne weekly low 1.3144 ke thoda upar trade kiya hai dollar index ke against, jisme U.S. ke mixed economic data ka asar dekha gaya. Taza tareen report yeh dikhati hai ke annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation 2.6% tak barh gaya, jabke forecast 2.5% tha. Iske ilawa, month-on-month inflation rate bhi 0.2% barh gaya, jo pehle ke estimates aur 0.1% ki rate se zyada tha.

In inflationary pressures ke bawajood, forex market mein foran jo reaction dekha gaya usmein US Dollar Index (DXY) ne decline kiya. Yeh index, jo Greenback ke performance ko chhay major currencies ke against measure karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb gir gaya. Yeh dip market ke mixed response ko reflect karta hai jo ke economic data aur future USD movements ke liye implications ke hawalay se hai.




Inflation Data ka Asar Currency Pair par aur Dollar Index ka Kamzor Hona

Pair ne apna downward trajectory barqarar rakha hai jabke isne year-to-date (YTD) high 1.3266 ko touch kiya tha. Buyers ki koshish ke bawajood ke wo exchange rate ko pehle ke cycle high 1.3260 ke upar push kar sakein, wo kaamiyab nahi hui aur mazeed losses ko face karna para. Ab market participants ka focus 50-day moving average (DMA) ka potential test 1.2895 par hai, jabke pair apni momentum ko wapas paane mein struggle kar raha hai.

GB/USD ka Support aur Resistance Levels

1.3083 ka mark ab ek vital support zone ban gaya hai, aur agar pair is threshold ke neeche girta hai to mazeed declines ka indication ho sakta hai. Doosri taraf, two-year peak 1.3267 ke ird gird ek key resistance level hai GBP/USD pair ke liye. Is dauran, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) ab 40.00 ke qareeb gir raha hai, jo short-term support provide kar sakta hai momentum oscillator ke liye.

H4 timeframe ko monitor karte rehte hain. Jab se maine stochastic oscillator indicator install kiya hai, lagta hai ke current GBPUSD price ne oversold level ko reach kar liya hai, to is baat ka imkaan hai ke price wapas upar bounce kar sakti hai. Agar aaj subah ka dekha jaye, to lagta hai ke ek achi bullish candle form hona shuru ho gayi hai. Yeh is baat ki tasdeeq ho sakti hai ke price dheere dheere upar ja rahi hai, lekin kyun ke abhi yeh thoda jaldi hai, behtar hoga ke mein jaldbazi mein position enter na karun. Shayad thoda intezar karun aur agar momentum ziada bullish lagta hai, to buy option behtar choice ho sakti hai.
Agar bara timeframe dekha jaye, to lagta hai ke ek steady bullish trend hai, lekin yeh bhi note karna chahiye ke Wednesday ko GBPUSD ki price condition weak hui thi aur 80 pips tak neeche gayi thi. Yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke seller sentiment dheere dheere resist karna shuru ho gaya hai. Agar baad mein koi lower decline valid candlestick pattern ke sath aata hai, to trend bearish ho sakta hai, aur phir mein seller scenario ki tayyari karunga. Lekin agar price wapas upar jati hai, to buyer scenario phir se apply hoga, isliye mujhe position enter karne ka faisla jaldbazi mein nahi karna chahiye.

Ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke GBPUSD market mein price movements achi upward trend mein hain, aur dominant bullish trend hai, isliye entry buy opportunities dekhte rehna achha hai. Lekin agar Wednesday ka dhyan se dekha jaye, to condition mein lagbhag 80 pips ki girawat aayi thi, jiski wajah se ek bearish candlestick bani thi jiska body kaafi lamba tha. Yeh girawat shayad higher trend ke continuation se pehle ek correction phase ka hissa ho sakta hai, lekin yeh bhi dhyan rakhna zaroori hai ke agar price aur neeche jati hai, to trend bearish turn ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD

Aaj hum GBP/USD currency pair ki price action analysis par baat karein ge. Jumay ko GBP/USD pair apni decline jari rakhtay hue 1.3130 ke support level tak pohanchi. Aik rebound ka imkaan tha agar pair 1.3213 ke resistance ko break karta ya 1.3130 ke support ko breach karne mein nakam rehta. Pair ne 1.3130 ka support torh diya tha lekin is level ke neeche consolidate karne mein kamiyab nahi ho saka. Is liye, current level se rebound ka risk ab bhi kam nazar aata hai. Agar 1.3213 break hota hai, to growth 1.3284 tak ho sakti hai, halan ke naya M15 signal hourly chart ke potential overload ki wajah se perfectly align nahi kar raha ho sakta. Behtareen scenario ye hai ke price 1.3130 ke neeche break karay, 1.3054 tak pohanchay, aur wahan consolidate ho, jo signal processing ko mazid effective bana sakta hai. Ye setup rebound ko support kare ga aur price 1.3185 tak barh sakti hai, aur agay 1.3501 tak mazeed gains ho sakte hain.

Trading chart par H4 period mein GBP/USD currency pair mazeed neeche gir sakta hai, khaaskar agar support area ka level 1.3110 aur 1.3100 ke beech pohanch jata hai. Exponential method ko close karne ke liye, H4 timeframe par Bollinger Bands indicator period 23 ke middle aur lower bands ke darmiyan price trade ho rahi hai. Yeh indication hai ke GBP/USD currency pair mein girawat ka imkaan hai, khaaskar H4 timeframe par. Aap apni trading strategy mein buy aur sell options 1.3110 ke neeche use kar sakte hain.

1-hour chart ka analysis dekha jaye, to aik strong bullish trend nazar aata hai jo recent resistance se takra kar consolidation phase mein chala gaya hai. Pair 18 August ke qareeb 1.28000 level se le kar 1.32000 ke recent highs tak barh gaya tha. Is upward movement ke dauran multiple minor liquidity zones break hue, jo ke strong bullish momentum ka pata dete hain. Magar, pair ko 1.32000 ke qareeb significant resistance ka samna karna para, jahan Distribution Liquidity (DLiq) zone visible hai. Price action ne uske baad pullback dikhaya, aur pair 1.31000 ke level tak gir gaya. DLiq zones 1.31500 aur 1.32000 ke aas paas further gains ko rok rahe hain, jiski wajah se sideways trading ka phase chala raha hai.