US dollar index

Agar US dollar index ka haftawaar close manfi ho, to agle haftay mein ek neeche ki taraf lehr aane ki surat mein hosakti hai. US dollar ka qeemat May ke mahine mein charhne wale qeemat channels ke andar shuru hui thi, sath hi 105.55 ke maheenay ke pivot level ke ooper thi, lekin phir qeemat ne neeche ki taraf mud gayi. Girawat ke doran, qeemat channels toot gaye aur maheenay ka pivot level dobara test kiya gaya, jis se mazeed girawat tasdeeq ho gayi. Qeemat gir gayi aur dollar ko kuch support mila kyunke mazeed ummid se behtar news mili, lekin pichle haftay ke ikhtitami dino mein, hamare paas daily chart par naye price peak the, jo dollar ke liye ek bearish hafta ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is haftay ke trading mashwara yeh hai ke qeemat ko girne aur maheenay ke support level 104.60 ke neeche stable hone ka intezaar karna hai takay bechnay ke liye dakhil ho sake. Maashi lehaaz se, US dollar ke qeemat ko izafa mila tha jab behtareen se behtareen US maashi dastavezat ke ikhtitami nataij aaye jinhon ne is saal Federal Reserve (America ka markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.

US dollar index

**US Dollar Index: Mukammal Jaiza**
US Dollar Index (DXY) ek financial indicator hai jo US Dollar (USD) ki strength ko maapta hai mukhtalif major currencies ke against. Yeh index US Dollar ka muqabala 6 major currencies ke saath karta hai: Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), aur Swiss Franc (CHF). DXY ko 1973 mein launch kiya gaya tha, aur tab se le kar aaj tak yeh forex market aur financial analysts ke liye ek zaroori tool ban chuka hai.

### US Dollar Index Ki Ahmiyat

US Dollar duniya ki sabse zyada traded currency hai, aur bohot saare international trade aur financial transactions USD mein hote hain. Is wajah se, DXY ko monitor karna bohot zaroori hota hai taake traders aur investors US Dollar ki overall strength ko samajh saken. Agar DXY ki value barhti hai, iska matlab hota hai ke USD zyada powerful ho raha hai baqi currencies ke muqable mein, aur agar DXY ki value girti hai, to USD ki strength kamzor hoti hai.

### US Dollar Index Ko Influence Karne Wale Factors

1. **Interest Rates**: US Federal Reserve ke interest rates ka DXY par direct asar hota hai. Jab Fed interest rates barhata hai, to investors ko higher returns milte hain aur USD ki demand barh jati hai, jo DXY ko upar le jata hai. Agar Fed interest rates kam karta hai, to USD ki demand kam ho jati hai aur DXY neeche girta hai.

2. **Economic Data**: US economic data jese GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation reports, aur consumer spending figures, DXY ko influence karte hain. Agar US economy strong perform kar rahi hai, to DXY ki value barh jati hai kyunki investors USD mein invest karte hain. Conversely, agar economic data weak hai, to DXY ki value gir sakti hai.

3. **Global Economic Conditions**: Duniya bhar ke economic conditions ka bhi DXY par asar hota hai. Agar global economy unstable hai ya recession ka khatra hai, to investors USD ko safe-haven asset ke tor par dekhtay hain, aur DXY ki value barh jati hai. Agar global economy stable hai, to investors doosri currencies ya assets mein invest karte hain, jo DXY ko neeche le jata hai.

4. **Geopolitical Events**: International tensions, wars, trade conflicts, aur political instability ka DXY par asar hota hai. Jab geopolitical risks barhtay hain, to log USD mein invest karte hain, jisse DXY ki value barhti hai. Conversely, agar global tensions kam hain, to USD ki demand kam ho sakti hai.

5. **Currency Interventions**: Central banks apni currencies ko stable rakhne ke liye kabhi kabhi market mein intervene karte hain. Agar doosre central banks apni currencies ko weaken karne ki koshish karte hain, to DXY ki value barh sakti hai.

### US Dollar Index Ki Trading

US Dollar Index ko futures, options, aur exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ke zariye trade kiya jata hai. Forex traders DXY ko monitor karte hain taake unhe market trends aur USD ki direction ka andaza ho sake. Iske alawa, DXY ka technical analysis karte waqt charts aur indicators jaise moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur trend lines ka use hota hai.

### Conclusion

US Dollar Index duniya ki sabse zyada ahmiyat rakhne wali currency, USD, ki strength ko measure karne ka ek zaroori tool hai. Is index ka analysis karna traders aur investors ke liye bohot important hota hai, khas tor par jab wo forex market ya global economic conditions ka andaza lagana chahte hain. Agar aap interest rates, economic data, global conditions, aur geopolitical events ko samajh kar DXY ko analyze karte hain, to aap is index ke zariye apne trading aur investment decisions ko behtar bana sakte hain.

Ye mukhtasir jaiza aapko US Dollar Index ke importance aur trading strategies ko samajhne mein madadgar hoga.

US dollar index

USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.

Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.

Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Impact Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index Friday ko 103.7 se neeche drop ho gaya, jo ke chaar mahine ka lowest level hai. Ek weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazid fuel kiya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne sirf 114,000 net jobs July mein add ki, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kaafi kam hai. Iske ilawa, unemployment rate unexpected 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se highest level hai, aur wage growth bhi anticipated se zyada slow hui hai.

Iske natije mein, financial markets ne is saal ke liye Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ki interest rate cuts ko price kar liya hai, jisme 50 basis points ki cut aur mazeed 25 basis points ki cut ki expectations hain jo baqi ke teen faislay ke liye hain. U.S. dollar index ko Bank of Japan ki thodi unexpected interest rate hike se bhi pressure face karna par raha hai, jo pichle Friday se yen mein 5% increase ka sabab bana.

Additional Economic Data

Thursday ko, July 26 ko khatam hone wale hafte ke initial jobless claims bhi expectations se zyada aaye, 249,000 ki expectations ke muqable mein 236,000 aaye. Iske ilawa, non-farm sector productivity second quarter ke liye estimates se zyada rahi, 2.3% change show hua jabke expectation 1.7% thi. Unit labor costs is quarter ke liye estimates se kam rahi, 0.9% aayi jabke expectation 1.8% thi. Iske ilawa, ISM Manufacturing PMI ka reading 46.8 record hui, jo ke anticipated 48.8 se kam hai.

US dollar index

USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle haftay se U.S. dollar mein bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is haftay ke aghaz se continue ho raha hai. Yeh umeed hai ke yeh trend haftay ke aakhir tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar dali jaye to yeh pata chalta hai ke price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo ke guzishta ek saal ke price movement ki direction ko zahir karti hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.

Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trade karne lagi aur ooper ki taraf move karna shuru kiya, to upper channel line ke qareeb jaate hi decline face karna pada, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb hai. Is liye, lagta hai ke iss saal bhi price movement sideways direction mein last year ki tarah chalega. Is waqt, mein recommend karunga ke U.S. dollar ko sell karein aur doosri currencies ko buy karein.

Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.

Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.

Additional Economic Data

Thursday ko, July 26 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye initial jobless claims expectations se zyada aaye, 249,000 ke muqablay mein 236,000 expect kiye gaye thay. Saath hi, second quarter ke liye non-farm sector productivity estimates se zyada rahi, jo ke 2.3% change dikhati hai jabke expectation 1.7% thi. Unit labor costs quarter ke liye estimates se kam rahi, jo 0.9% aayi jabke expectation 1.8% thi. Is ke ilawa, ISM Manufacturing PMI ka reading 46.8 raha, jo anticipated 48.8 se kam tha.

USD Index Analysis

Pichle haftay se U.S. dollar me ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai jo is hafte ke shuru hone se bhi jaari hai. Ye trend haftay ke end tak chalne ki ummeed hai. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart ko dekhte hue, price lower red channel line ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ka direction indicate karti hai. Price is channel range ke andar fluctuate karti rahi hai.

Jab price lower channel line ke paas trading kar rahi thi aur upar ki taraf move karne lagi, to upper channel line ke paas jaate hue decline ka saamna kiya. Ab price phir se lower channel line ke paas hai. Isliye, lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement bhi sideways direction me hogi, jaise ke pichle saal thi. Is waqt, main U.S. dollar ko sell karne aur doosri currencies ko buy karne ki tajwez deta hoon.

Economic Factors Impacting the Dollar

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index Friday ko 103.7 se neeche chala gaya, jo chaar maheenon ka sabse kam level hai. Kamzor U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko aur barha diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July me sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Iske ilawa, unemployment rate 4.3% par barh gaya hai, jo 2021 ke baad ka highest level hai, aur wage growth bhi expected se zyada dheemi hui hai.

Is wajah se, financial markets ne Federal Reserve se is saal 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ki price lagayi hai, jismein 50 basis points ki cut aur baaki ke teen decisions me 25 basis points aur cut ki ummeed hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke kuch had tak unexpected interest rate hike ka bhi pressure hai, jo last Friday se yen me 5% ki increase ka sabab bana.

Additional Economic Data

Thursday ko, initial jobless claims jo July 26 ko khatam hui thi, woh 249,000 aayi jo expected 236,000 se zyada hai. Iske ilawa, non-farm sector productivity for second quarter estimates se zyada thi, jo 2.3% change dikhati hai, jabke expected 1.7% tha. Unit labor costs for the quarter bhi estimates se kam aayi, jo 0.9% thi instead of expected 1.8%. Aur, ISM Manufacturing PMI ka reading 46.8 record hua, jo anticipated 48.8 se kam hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

US Dollar Losses Increase kar Raha hai

Haal hi mein US stock markets ki wapsi ki raftaar ruk gayi hai, aur kal ke din, ahem US benchmarks ne thode se nuqsan uthaye (-0.25%), jo ke guzishta do hafton mein shaandar rally ke baad dekhe gaye. Dusre afsaane jari rahe. US Treasuries ne German Bunds ko out-perform kiya, jahan US curve pe roze ke tabadlon ki range -8.2 bps (2-yr) se -6.2 bps (30-yr) thi, jab ke Germany ke liye -3.3 bps (5-yr) se -2.7 bps (30-yr) thi. US yields ne phir se girna shuru kiya, jaise hi US traders ne kal ke actions mein shamil hue. Fed Governor Bowman ne kaha ke agar aane wale data se yeh zahir hota hai ke inflation humare 2% ke hadaf ki taraf musalsal barh raha hai, to federal funds rate ko dhire dhire kam karna munasib ho jayega taake monetary policy had se zyada restrict na ho jaye. Kai Fed ke bayanaat ka nuqta yehi hai ke sabr se kaam lena chahiye, jiske muqablay mein US money markets mein is saal aur agle saal ke liye stealth easing ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. Aaj dopahar ke BLS payrolls revision, kal ke PMI's, aur Friday ke Powell ke Jackson Hole takreer ke intezar mein, interest rate markets abhi tak apne agressive Fed easing bets se peeche nahi hat rahe. US 2-yr yield ne 4% ke neechay close kiya aur 3.85% support area ko wapas test karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar is hafte ya September ke shuruat mein (ISM's & Payrolls) soft data/dovish signals pe south move na kar paya, to yeh ek mazboot signal hoga ke ab tak kaafi dovishness ko market mein shamil kar liya gaya hai. US 10-yr yield pehle se hi ahem support ko 3.8% par test kar raha hai. Dollar interest rate loss se pareshani uthata raha. Trade-weighted greenback ne kal 101.44 par close kiya, jab ke 101.88 se start kiya tha. Ahem support 100.62 (Dec23 low), 99.58 (2023 low) aur 98.98 (62% retracement on 2021/2022 DXY rally) par hai. EUR/USD (close 1.1130) mein isi tarah resistance 1.1139/1.1274/1.1276 par hai.






US Bureau of Labour Statistics aaj apna preliminary annual benchmark revision (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data ka istemal karte hue) publish kar raha hai. June QCEW ne yeh suggest kiya tha ke March tak US job growth shayad itni mazboot nahi thi jitni ke dikhayi gayi thi. Ballpark figures yeh dikhate hain ke mahine ke hisaab se takreeban 60k ke qareebi downward revision ho sakti hai. Aaj ka payrolls revision pichle chand mahino mein potential gamechanger ke taur pe dekha ja raha tha, jo markets aur Fed ko "higher for longer" se "more outspoken rate cuts" ki taraf dhakel sakta hai. Lekin August ke shuruat mein US money markets mein repositioning ke baad, BLS update ka market impact shayad kam ho gaya hai. Pehle yeh ek gamechanger ho sakta tha, lekin ab yeh zyada ek confirmation ke taur pe dekha ja raha hai. Phir bhi, agar kisi khaas revision (>50k/month) se ziada downward hoti hai, to yeh markets ko 50 bps rate cut lift-off ki taraf le ja sakti hai.

News & Views

PAP newswire ne report kiya ke National Bank of Poland ke governor Glapinski ne yeh izhar kiya ke ab wo 2026 se pehle monetary policy adjustment pe discussion ke imkaan ko nazar andaz nahi kar sakte. Guzishta mahine tak, wo is nazar ko advocate kar rahe the, inflation outlook ke bare mein rehne wali uncertainty ki wajah se. Glapinski ke mojooda andaz ke mutabiq, decisions wages growth, consumption, energy prices aur Poland ke trading partners ki economic situation pe mabni honge. Is silsile mein, NBP governor ne yeh ishara diya ke Europe aur US mein inflation ke barhne ka khatra kuch kam ho raha hai aur rate cut expectations barh gayi hain. Poland ki economy ne Q2 mein mutawaqqa se zyada growth ki (1.5% Q/Q aur 3.2% Y/Y) ke mutabiq prelimary data jo pichle hafte release hua, Glapinski kehte hain ke yeh trend jari rehne ka yaqeen nahi. Consumption agle saal tak mumkin hai ke slow ho jaye wages growth ke kam hone ki wajah se. Yeh international context Poland ke growth ke liye zyada ahem banayega. Polish inflation July mein phir se barh gayi 1.5% M/M aur 4.2% Y/Y (June ke 2.6% se) jab ke hukoomat ne energy prices par cap ko barhaya. PLN 2-y swap rate 5.10% se girkar 4.94% par aa gaya. EUR/PLN cross rate 4.265 ke area se jump karke karib 4.276 par close hua.

USD Index Analysis


Good morning, dear visitors aur forum members. Aap sab kaise hain aaj? Umeed karta hoon sab theek hain aur trading mein achha kar rahe hain. Naya din, nayi situations charts par, aur meri taraf se sab ko izzat! To aaj main USD index ka analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Chalo analysis shuru karte hain:

Daily Chart Analysis:

Attached chart mein dekh kar yeh nazar aa raha hai ke ab tak sab kuch technique ke mutabiq chal raha hai bina kisi surprises ke, aur yeh encouraging hai kyun ke main majors par dollar ke against kaam kar raha hoon. Koi wajah nazar nahi aa rahi ke trading week ke end tak bears next local support ko test na kar saken jo ke 100.60 ke area mein hai. Main do main versions consider kar raha hoon jisme index apne calculated target tak pohnchta hai:

Option No. 1: Bears, achi speed gain karne ke baad, target tak pohnch jate hain bina kisi unnecessary movements ke, aur level ko strength ke liye test karte hain breakout ke threat ke sath aur subsequent consolidation;

Option No. 2: Index mein further decline ke liye bears ko pehle apni strength regain karni hogi. Bullish jump breakout zone mein 102.36 ke resistance level ke area mein additional liquidity gain karne ke liye hoga taake bearish trend ka development continue ho sake. Is option ka main condition yeh hai ke bulls ko 102.36 se upar climb karne se rokna hoga aur breakout level ke upar settle hone se bachana hoga. Is case mein, platform price ke liye ek lift ka kaam karega channel opening zone tak, aur wahan har tarah ke surprises ho sakte hain.

Aaj ke liye itna hi. Umeed hai ke yeh hamare liye useful hoga, aur apne thoughts is analysis ke baare mein share karna mat bhoolna.

USD Index Analysis

Good morning, dear visitors aur forum members. Aap sab kaise hain aaj? Umeed hai ke sab theek hain aur trading mein achha kar rahe hain. Naya din, naye situations charts par, aur sab ke liye meri taraf se izzat! Toh aaj mein USD index ka analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Chaliye analysis shuru karte hain:

Daily chart analysis:

Agar hum attached chart mein US dollar index ko dekhein, toh ab tak sab kuch technique ke mutabiq chal raha hai, bina kisi surprises ke, aur yeh encouraging hai kyun ke mein majors par dollar ke against kaam kar raha hoon. Koi wajah nahi ke trading week ke end tak, bears agle local support area 100.60 ki strength ko test karne mein kamiyab na hoon. Main index ke calculated target tak pohanchne ke do main versions consider kar raha hoon:

Option No. 1: Bears, achhi speed gain karne ke baad, bina kisi unnecessary movements ke target tak pohanch jate hain aur strength ke liye level ko test karte hain, breakout aur subsequent consolidation ka threat dekar;

Option No. 2: Index mein further decline ke liye, bears ko pehle apni strength wapas hasil karni padegi. Resistance level ke breakout zone mein 102.36 ke area mein bullish jump hoga jo ke bearish trend ke development ko continue karne ke liye additional liquidity provide karega. Is option ka main condition yeh hai ke bulls ko 102.36 ke upar climb karne se roka jaye aur breakout level ke upar settle na hone diya jaye. Is case mein, platform price ko channel opening zone tak lift karne ka kaam karega, aur wahan har tarah ke surprises ho sakte hain.

Aaj ke liye itna hi. Umeed hai ke yeh humare liye useful hoga, aur apne thoughts is analysis ke bare mein zaroor share karein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

NFP revisions ne Fed ke liye aik aur wake-up call ka kaam kiya

Stocks ne raat bhar green mein mazbooti se qadam jamaye rakhe jab Fed minutes ne September rate cut ko almost lock kar diya, khaaskar recent inflation data ne rasta saaf kar diya. Lekin NFP revision ka surprise cameo sab ki tawajjo khud par le gaya, jis ne bond yields ko neeche laa diya aur dollar ko aik zabardast jhatka diya. US payrolls ki downward revision ne worst-case scenario ke qareeb pahunch kar September mein rate cut ke liye umeedein mazid mazboot kar di aur yeh guftagu chalayee ke shayad yeh standard 25 pb cut se zyada ho.

25 vs. 50 basis point cut ka muamla ab aanewali August jobs report par depend karta hai. Is maheenay ke aghaz mein, US “growth scare” ne Sahm rule ko jagah di, jis ne markets ko 50 basis point cut ki taraf dhakel diya. NY Fed survey ki job scare ko bhi is mein shamil kar lo, lekin Wazni NFP revision ne market ki tawajjo hasil kar li. Labour market ke tez cooling off hone ke hawale se barhtay huwe concerns ke sath, yeh revision aik wake-up call tha. Workers ki tadad payrolls par takriban 818,000 se kam hone ki umeed hai, jo March tak ke 12 mahino ka aik jaw-dropping figure hai, aur yeh 2009 ke baad sab se bari downward revision hai.

Trading ki duniya mein context sab kuch hota hai. BLS revisions ke hard hitting hone aur Americans ke job security ke hawale se 2014 ke baad se zyada pareshaan hone ke sath, high alert rehne ke liye kaafi wajahain hain. Aise gehre revisions economy ke strong hone ke johron par pani pher sakti hain, jo market ko buoyant rakh rahe hain. Yeh revision worst-case estimates ke bilkul neeche land karne ke qareeb hai, is ne waqai mein lehrain paida ki hain.

Jab Fed ke possible rate cuts spot light mein hain, to badi tasveer ko dekhna na bhoolain. Economy ka mazboot rehna ab bhi key hai—agar yeh stable rehti hai to stock market apni chadhai ko jaari rakh sakta hai. Lekin yahaan ek twist hai: Fed cuts ke scale se le kar US economy ki asli taqat tak sab kuch aik classic “be careful what you wish for” scenario mein aikathay crash kar sakta hai jab next NFP report aayegi.

Jabke VIX cool rehta hai, market mein aik uneasy feeling ke asar zyada ho rahe hain. Hum summer ke slow period ke akhir mein hain, lekin yeh job revisions market ke radar se kuch logon ke liye guzar gaye.

Yeh revision, jo 2009 ke baad se sab se badi hai, yeh is qouliyat ke sath aati hai ke is ko agli saal ke start mein dobara revise kiya jaayega. July jobs report ke "growth scare" ke baad—weak payrolls, rising unemployment, falling hours worked, aur cooling wages ke sath—yeh NFP revision Fed par pressure barhata hai. Stakes bilkul unchi hain, aur market on edge hai, aane wale waqte ke liye tayar ho raha hai.

Chahay August jobs report aik cliff-edge moment banta hai ya nahi, mere trading radar—jo mein "tradar" kehta hoon—mein aik warning flash ho rahi hai ke aik reckoning ka din aane wala hai. Jabke "Fed Put" shayad total market meltdown se bachaye, yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke jab labour market ghalat direction mein slip karta hai, to yeh runaway train ki tarah momentum gain karta hai. Yeh US recessions ka hallmark hai—jobs market sirf stumble nahi karta; yeh tumble karta hai, aur jab yeh hota hai, to yeh fast aur hard hota hai.

18 September ka rate cut last month ke end par hi set in motion ho chuka tha. Press conference ke dauran, Chair Powell ne ishara diya, “September meeting par rate cut table par ho sakta hai” agar inflation data tameez se behave karti hai (wo kiya) aur labour market numbers further soften hotay hain (wo hue). Ab sab ki nazar Powell ke Jumay ke Jackson Hole speech par hai, jahan market ko us final confirmation nod ka intezar hai.

Agar mein apne aap ko zyada aagay na le jaoon, lekin traders advance mein plot aur position karne ka shauq rakhtay hain. Jab hum crucial NFP report ke liye tayar ho rahe hain, to ab bhi kuch minor wood chip karne ka kaam baqi hai, aur jabke second half of the year mein growth slowdown expected hai, yeh abhi tak consumer spending mein sharp decline nahi hai jo Fed ko 50-bp rate cut karne par majboor kare. Lekin agar NFP 100K ke neeche aati hai, to Fed ko apne dual mandate ke dono ends cover karne ke liye ek jumbo-sized cut karna par sakta hai.



Jahan tak Powell ke aane wali Jackson Hole speech ka taluq hai, mera khayal hai ke yeh FOMC minutes ke baad itna game-changer nahi hogi, kyun ke uss ne wo confirmation bias diya jo sab log dekh rahe thay. To jab Jay Jumay ko stage par aaye ga, to umeed hai ke wo yeh khayal piche dhakel dega ke Fed curve se peeche hai. Wo shayad apni script par stick kare ga, humein tasalli dega ke monetary policy “ek achi jagah” par hai. Aakhir kar, wo 50-basis point cut ka signal nahi dega jab tak August NFP unpack nahi hui hoti.

US dollar further gira jab Fed Minutes ne looming cuts ko underscore kiya

Dollar apni buray se buray stretch mein hai jab steady selling ne usay saal ke lows par pohancha diya. FOMC Minutes ke baad, dollar board par takriban 15 pips gira, kyun ke report mein diye gaye comments ne rate cuts par strong consensus dikhaya.

Dollar selling ab aik real momentum trade ban gaya hai retail sales ke strong blip ke ilawa. Market yeh keh rahi hai ke US outperformance ka period khatam hone ke qareeb hai. Shayad politics is mein factor ho rahi hai Harris ke improved chances ke light mein. Agar wo haar bhi jati hai to shayad usay House jeetne ke liye kaafi support mil jaye aur gridlock ke chances barh jayein. Conversely, Harris jeet jati hai aur Republicans Senate ko control kar lete hain (Republicans ka Senate jeetne ka bohot high likelihood hai).

Lekin aap bahut se factors argue kar sakte hain, jin mein market keh rahi hai "yeh as bad as it gets for the global economy." Rates sab jagah gir rahi hain aur jabke abhi bhi pipeline mein thodi si pain ho sakti hai, lekin aane wale rate cuts is ko mitigate karenge. AI disinflationary hai aur inflation expectations waise bhi achi hain. Yeh economic cycle ka bottom ho sakta hai, jo sochna wild lagta hai given ke US equities abhi bhi record highs ke qareeb hain.

Aur agar yeh hai, to paisa dollars se nikal kar emerging markets aur beaten-down cyclical assets mein flow karega. Main is soch se mutmaeen nahi hoon lekin lagta hai market yeh hi keh rahi hai.

US Dollar ko support milne mein dushwari ka samna, jab tawajjo PMI data par shift hui

US Bureau of Labor Statistics ne Wednesday ko elan kiya ke benchmark revision ke preliminary estimate ke mutabiq March 2024 ke total Nonfarm employment mein -818,000 (-0.5%) ka adjustment hoga. Din ke baad Federal Reserve (Fed) ke July 30-31 policy meeting ke minutes ne dikhaya ke bohot se policymakers ka ye khayal tha ke agar aane wale data expectations par pura utarta hai, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna munasib hoga. USD Index aakhri baar 101.20 ke qareeb ek tight channel mein move karte huye dekha gaya, jo ke week ke aghaz se ab tak 1% se zyada gir chuka hai. Isi dauran, US stock index futures thodi si niche trade kar rahe hain aur benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield apne weekly range ke lower limit ke qareeb 3.8% par hai.

Asian trading hours ke doran, Australia se data aya ke Judo Bank Composite PMI August ke flash estimate mein 51.4 par improve hua, jo July mein 49.9 tha. Yeh reading AUD/USD mein koi noticeable reaction paida karne mein nakam rahi, jo ke ab bhi lagbhag 0.6750 par sideways move kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko 1.1170 se zyada chadh kar July 2023 ke baad apni highest level ko touch kiya, phir early Thursday ko consolidation phase mein chala gaya. Press ke waqt, yeh pair din mein virtually unchanged tha aur 1.1150 par trade kar raha tha.

GBP/USD ne apni bullish momentum ko Wednesday ko preserve kiya aur ek saal se zyada ke baad pehli baar 1.3100 se aage barh gaya. European morning mein Thursday ko yeh pair thodi si kam hoti trading ke sath is level ke neeche hai.

USD/JPY ko USD par hone wale selling pressure se faida nahi hua aur yeh Thursday ko flat close hui. Yeh pair European session ke aghaz mein 145.50 par sideways grind kar raha hai.

Gold ne Tuesday ko jo record-high $2,531 set ki thi us se correct hua, lekin Wednesday ko $2,500 ke upar stabilize karne mein kamyab raha. XAU/USD relatively quiet raha aur early Thursday ko lagbhag $2,510 par trade kar raha hai.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), jo ke har mahine release hota hai, US private-business activity ko manufacturing aur services sector mein measure karta hai. Data senior executives ke surveys se hasil hota hai. Har response ko company ke size aur us ke contribution ke mutabiq weightage di jati hai jo total manufacturing ya services output mein sub-sector ke liye hisa hai. Survey responses current month ko pichlay month ke muqable mein kisi bhi change ko reflect kartay hain aur official data series jaise ke Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment aur inflation mein changing trends ko anticipate kar sakte hain. Index 0 se 100 ke darmiyan vary karta hai, jahan 50.0 ke levels pichlay mahine ke muqable mein koi change na hone ka signal dete hain. 50 se upar ka reading is baat ka indication hai ke private economy generally expanding hai, jo US Dollar (USD) ke liye bullish sign hai. Isi dauran, 50 se neeche ka reading is baat ka signal deta hai ke activity generally declining hai, jo USD ke liye bearish samjha jata hai.

markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.

US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.

US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.


Like tu banta hay ik🙏

US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.

k🙏

US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.


Like tu banta hay ik🙏
US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.


Like tu banta hay ik🙏
US dollar index


markazi bank) ki interest daro mein kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Maashi calendar ke dastavezat ke natayaj ke mutabiq... May mein US ki karobar ki faaliyat do saal se zyada arse mein tezi se barh gayi, jab ke haal hi mein haftay ke kaam ke ansari asani se zyada gir gaye, Standard & Poor's ke data ne dikhaya. Haaliya ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke ikhtitami jalse ki minutes mein bhi ye zahir hua ke policymakers behad izafi maheengai se pareshan hain aur kuch members ne ishara kiya ke agar maheengai barh gayi to policy ko mazeed sakht karna tayyar hain. Maali market ab sirf is saal ek rate kaat ka intizaar kar rahi hai aur pehle rate cut ki taareekh ko December mein daal diya gaya hai.
USD Index Analysis

Bearish Trend Dekha Gaya

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Asar Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index ne jumay ko 103.7 se neeche girawat dekhi, jo ke chaar maheenon ka sabse lowest level hai. Weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazeed fuel diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July mein sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Is ke ilawa, unemployment rate bhi unexpected tor par 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada hai, aur wage growth bhi umeed se zyada slow hui hai.
Iska natija yeh nikla ke financial markets ne is saal Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ko price in kar liya hai, jismein se 50 basis points ke cuts aur baqi ke 25 basis points ko is saal ke baqi ke teen faislon mein expect kiya ja raha hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke thora unexpected interest rate hike ne bhi pressure dala hai, jis se yen mein pichlay jumay se 5% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.


Like tu banta hay ik🙏

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD Index Weekly Forecast

US Dollar Index (DXY) 13-mahine ke lows ke qareeb 100.60 par gir gaya. Chair Powell ne agle mahine interest rate cut ke haqq mein apni raye di. Ab investors ka diyaan PCE inflation data ke release par hai. Agla significant support line 100.00 threshold ke paas hai. Market participants ne iss hafte tak Greenback ko punish karna jaari rakha, jo US Dollar Index (DXY) ko nayi 2024 lows ke qareeb 100.60 par le gaya jab hafte ka aakhri din qareeb aaya.

Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein easing cycle ke aghaz ke barhne ke imkaan se lagataar selling pressure ne US Dollar ko defensive rakha, jabke US yields ka performance bhi erratic raha. Fed ke rate-setters ke kuch comments bhi iss selling frenzy mein hissa dale.

September mein rate cut mumkin hai. Ab diyaan economy par hai

Iss hafte tak, agle mahine Fed ke interest rate cut ke liye bets mein izafa dekha gaya hai. Yeh nazariya kuch Fed officials ke saath bhi match karta nazar aaya.

Darasal, Kansas City Fed Bank ke President Jeff Schmid, jo bank ke hawkish members mein se ek jaane jaate hain, ne yeh kaha ke wo unemployment rate ke barhne ke factors ko closely monitor kar rahe hain aur agle mahine rate cut ko support karne ka faisla data par base karenge.

Unke colleague, Boston Fed President Susan Collins ne bhi yeh suggest kiya ke Fed jaldi hi rate-cutting cycle ko shuru karne ke liye tayar ho sakta hai, aur apni potential support September ke central bank ke policy meeting mein rate cut ke liye zahir ki.

Isi tarah, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne bhi yeh willingness zahir ki ke September mein rate cut ko support karne ke liye tayar hain agar data unki expectations ko meet kare. Harker ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar data mein koi unexpected shift nahi aata, toh unko lagta hai ke rates kam karne ka process shuru karne ka waqt aa gaya hai.

Akhir mein, Chair Jerome Powell ka nazariya Jackson Hole Symposium mein saamne aaya, jahan unhone interest rate cuts ke haqq mein explicit support zahir ki, aur yeh kaha ke further cooling in the job market undesirable hogi. Unhone is baat par yaqeen zahir kiya ke inflation central bank ke 2% target ke qareeb aa raha hai.

Powell ne yeh emphasize kiya ke Fed mazid labour market conditions mein softening nahi chahta aur unhone yeh assurance diya ke wo price stability ki taraf barhawa dete hue strong labour market ko support karne ke liye har mumkin koshish karenge. Unhone yeh bhi indicate kiya ke agar policy restraint mein sahi adjustment kiya gaya, toh economy ko 2% inflation par wapas laana aur ek mazboot labour market qaim rakhna mumkin hai.

Ab tak, CME Group ka FedWatch Tool 65% chance dekhta hai 25 bps rate decrease ke liye September mein, jabke 35% log 50 bps cut ki umeed kar rahe hain.

Akhir mein, agar hum September mein hone wale rate cut se door chalein, toh investors ke umeed hai ke domestic economy ke performance ko assess karna shuru karenge. Pehle ke recession concerns ab dissipate hote nazar aa rahe hain, lekin aanewale data releases monetary policy ke dial ko affect karne ki potential rakhti hain, khaaskar jab rate reduction ke imkaan ke size ki baat ho.

Monetary policy ke hawale se agle prospects kya hain?
Isi dauran, European Monetary Union (EMU), Japan, Switzerland, aur United Kingdom sabhi increasing disinflationary pressures ka samna kar rahe hain. Iske jawab mein, European Central Bank (ECB) ne June mein rates mein 25 bps ki cut ki aur July mein dovish stance rakha, jabke policymakers abhi tak summer ke baad further rate cuts ke liye uncertain hain, halaanke investors is saal ke baqi months mein do additional cuts ko factor kar rahe hain.

Isi tarah, Swiss National Bank (SNB) ne bhi 20 June ko unexpected rates mein 25 bps ka cut kiya, jabke Bank of England (BoE) ne apni policy rate ko 1 August ko ek quarter-point se kam kiya. Iske baraks, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne August 6 ki meeting mein rates ko steady rakha, jabke investors umeed kar rahe hain ke bank apni easing cycle ko 2025 ke pehle quarter mein shuru karega. Dosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne 31 July ko markets ko surprise kar diya jab unhone 15 bps se rates ko barhawa dekar 0.25% tak le gaye aur hawkish message diya.

• Politics ke hawale se kya baat hai?
  Jab se Kamala Harris ne Democratic Party ki presidential candidate banne ka faisla kiya hai, polls ab tak mukhtalif rayeon mein divided hain potential outcome ke baare mein. Halaanke, yeh sochna zaroori hai ke agar Trump ka ek aur administration aata hai aur tariffs ko reintroduce karta hai, toh yeh US economy mein disinflationary trend ko disrupt ya ulat sakta hai. Yeh scenario Fed easing cycle ko shorten kar sakta hai.
• US yields ne iss hafte momentum kho diya
  US yields ka performance curve ke across US Dollar ke performance ko mirror karta hua nazar aaya, jo hafte ke pehle hisse mein south ki taraf ja raha tha. Pullback ne hafte ke aakhri hisse mein ek lacklustre recovery ko precede kiya, hamesha investors ke mood ke swings ke response mein jo agle mahine Fed ke rate cut ke imkaan ke ird gird tha.
• Upcoming key events
  Aagey dekhte hue, tamam tawajju Fed ke preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), ke publication par expected hai 30 August ko. Yeh reading Fed ke rate cut ke plan par kitni ahmiyat rakhti hai, aisa move release ke waqt tak priced in hona chahiye. Doosri taraf, Conference Board apna Consumer Confidence print 27 August ko release karega.

US Dollar Index ke Technical Analysis

DXY mein selling bias ke continuation ke imkaan barh gaye hain jab se index ne key 200-day SMA ke neeche convincingly break kiya, jo aaj 104.02 par hai.



Agar sellers apna control maintain karte hain, toh US Dollar Index (DXY) pehle 2024 bottom of 100.66 (August 23) tak gir sakta hai, jo December 2023 low of 100.61 (December 28) se closely follow hota hai, aur eventually psychological level of 100.00 ko test kar sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, immediate resistance weekly top of 103.54 (August 8) par hai, jo key 200-day SMA aur weekly peak of 104.79 (July 30) se pehle aata hai. Agar yeh area cross hota hai, toh DXY June high of 106.13 (June 26) tak barh sakta hai, jo 2024 top of 106.51 (April 16) se pehle hai.

Daily chart par, RSI oversold region mein hai 27 ke qareeb, jo near future mein ek potential bullish attempt ke liye rasta kholta hai.

Fundamental Forecast

Monetary policy US mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke zariye shape hoti hai. Fed ke do mandates hain: price stability ko achieve karna aur full employment ko foster karna. Uske primary tools yeh goals achieve karne ke liye interest rates adjust karne se hain. Jab prices bohot tez barhti hain aur inflation Fed ke 2% target se ooper hota hai, toh Fed interest rates barhata hai, jo economy mein borrowing costs ko barha deta hai. Iska nateeja ek strong US Dollar (USD) hota hai, kyunke yeh US ko international investors ke liye zyada attractive jagah bana deta hai apna paisa park karne ke liye. Jab inflation 2% se neeche girti hai ya Unemployment Rate zyada hota hai, toh Fed interest rates ko kam kar sakta hai, jo Greenback par bohot weight dalta hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) ek saal mein aath policy meetings rakhta hai, jahan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) economic conditions ko assess karta hai aur monetary policy decisions leta hai. FOMC mein twelve Fed officials hote hain – Board of Governors ke seven members, Federal Reserve Bank of New York ka president, aur remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents mein se chaar jo ek saal ke liye rotating basis par serve karte hain.

Extreme situations mein, Federal Reserve ek policy adopt kar sakta hai jise Quantitative Easing (QE) kehte hain. QE woh process hai jismein Fed financial system mein credit ke flow ko substantially increase karta hai. Yeh ek non-standard policy measure hai jo crises ke dauran ya jab inflation bohot low hota hai, use hota hai. Yeh Fed ka weapon of choice tha Great Financial Crisis 2008 ke dauran. Ismein Fed zyada Dollars print karta hai aur unhe financial institutions se high-grade bonds khareedne ke liye use karta hai. QE usually US Dollar ko weaken karta hai.

Quantitative tightening (QT) QE ka ulta process hai, jismein Federal Reserve bonds khareedna band kar deta hai financial institutions se aur jo bonds uske paas hain unke maturing par principal ko reinvest nahi karta, naye bonds khareedne ke liye. Yeh aam taur par US Dollar ke value ke liye positive hota hai."