US dollar index

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Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
USD Index Weekly Forecast

US Dollar Index (DXY) 13-mahine ke lows ke qareeb 100.60 par gir gaya. Chair Powell ne agle mahine interest rate cut ke haqq mein apni raye di. Ab investors ka diyaan PCE inflation data ke release par hai. Agla significant support line 100.00 threshold ke paas hai. Market participants ne iss hafte tak Greenback ko punish karna jaari rakha, jo US Dollar Index (DXY) ko nayi 2024 lows ke qareeb 100.60 par le gaya jab hafte ka aakhri din qareeb aaya.

Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein easing cycle ke aghaz ke barhne ke imkaan se lagataar selling pressure ne US Dollar ko defensive rakha, jabke US yields ka performance bhi erratic raha. Fed ke rate-setters ke kuch comments bhi iss selling frenzy mein hissa dale.

September mein rate cut mumkin hai. Ab diyaan economy par hai

Iss hafte tak, agle mahine Fed ke interest rate cut ke liye bets mein izafa dekha gaya hai. Yeh nazariya kuch Fed officials ke saath bhi match karta nazar aaya.

Darasal, Kansas City Fed Bank ke President Jeff Schmid, jo bank ke hawkish members mein se ek jaane jaate hain, ne yeh kaha ke wo unemployment rate ke barhne ke factors ko closely monitor kar rahe hain aur agle mahine rate cut ko support karne ka faisla data par base karenge.

Unke colleague, Boston Fed President Susan Collins ne bhi yeh suggest kiya ke Fed jaldi hi rate-cutting cycle ko shuru karne ke liye tayar ho sakta hai, aur apni potential support September ke central bank ke policy meeting mein rate cut ke liye zahir ki.

Isi tarah, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne bhi yeh willingness zahir ki ke September mein rate cut ko support karne ke liye tayar hain agar data unki expectations ko meet kare. Harker ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar data mein koi unexpected shift nahi aata, toh unko lagta hai ke rates kam karne ka process shuru karne ka waqt aa gaya hai.

Akhir mein, Chair Jerome Powell ka nazariya Jackson Hole Symposium mein saamne aaya, jahan unhone interest rate cuts ke haqq mein explicit support zahir ki, aur yeh kaha ke further cooling in the job market undesirable hogi. Unhone is baat par yaqeen zahir kiya ke inflation central bank ke 2% target ke qareeb aa raha hai.

Powell ne yeh emphasize kiya ke Fed mazid labour market conditions mein softening nahi chahta aur unhone yeh assurance diya ke wo price stability ki taraf barhawa dete hue strong labour market ko support karne ke liye har mumkin koshish karenge. Unhone yeh bhi indicate kiya ke agar policy restraint mein sahi adjustment kiya gaya, toh economy ko 2% inflation par wapas laana aur ek mazboot labour market qaim rakhna mumkin hai.

Ab tak, CME Group ka FedWatch Tool 65% chance dekhta hai 25 bps rate decrease ke liye September mein, jabke 35% log 50 bps cut ki umeed kar rahe hain.

Akhir mein, agar hum September mein hone wale rate cut se door chalein, toh investors ke umeed hai ke domestic economy ke performance ko assess karna shuru karenge. Pehle ke recession concerns ab dissipate hote nazar aa rahe hain, lekin aanewale data releases monetary policy ke dial ko affect karne ki potential rakhti hain, khaaskar jab rate reduction ke imkaan ke size ki baat ho.

Monetary policy ke hawale se agle prospects kya hain?
Isi dauran, European Monetary Union (EMU), Japan, Switzerland, aur United Kingdom sabhi increasing disinflationary pressures ka samna kar rahe hain. Iske jawab mein, European Central Bank (ECB) ne June mein rates mein 25 bps ki cut ki aur July mein dovish stance rakha, jabke policymakers abhi tak summer ke baad further rate cuts ke liye uncertain hain, halaanke investors is saal ke baqi months mein do additional cuts ko factor kar rahe hain.

Isi tarah, Swiss National Bank (SNB) ne bhi 20 June ko unexpected rates mein 25 bps ka cut kiya, jabke Bank of England (BoE) ne apni policy rate ko 1 August ko ek quarter-point se kam kiya. Iske baraks, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne August 6 ki meeting mein rates ko steady rakha, jabke investors umeed kar rahe hain ke bank apni easing cycle ko 2025 ke pehle quarter mein shuru karega. Dosri taraf, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne 31 July ko markets ko surprise kar diya jab unhone 15 bps se rates ko barhawa dekar 0.25% tak le gaye aur hawkish message diya.

• Politics ke hawale se kya baat hai?
  Jab se Kamala Harris ne Democratic Party ki presidential candidate banne ka faisla kiya hai, polls ab tak mukhtalif rayeon mein divided hain potential outcome ke baare mein. Halaanke, yeh sochna zaroori hai ke agar Trump ka ek aur administration aata hai aur tariffs ko reintroduce karta hai, toh yeh US economy mein disinflationary trend ko disrupt ya ulat sakta hai. Yeh scenario Fed easing cycle ko shorten kar sakta hai.
• US yields ne iss hafte momentum kho diya
  US yields ka performance curve ke across US Dollar ke performance ko mirror karta hua nazar aaya, jo hafte ke pehle hisse mein south ki taraf ja raha tha. Pullback ne hafte ke aakhri hisse mein ek lacklustre recovery ko precede kiya, hamesha investors ke mood ke swings ke response mein jo agle mahine Fed ke rate cut ke imkaan ke ird gird tha.
• Upcoming key events
  Aagey dekhte hue, tamam tawajju Fed ke preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), ke publication par expected hai 30 August ko. Yeh reading Fed ke rate cut ke plan par kitni ahmiyat rakhti hai, aisa move release ke waqt tak priced in hona chahiye. Doosri taraf, Conference Board apna Consumer Confidence print 27 August ko release karega.

US Dollar Index ke Technical Analysis
DXY mein selling bias ke continuation ke imkaan barh gaye hain jab se index ne key 200-day SMA ke neeche convincingly break kiya, jo aaj 104.02 par hai.

Agar sellers apna control maintain karte hain, toh US Dollar Index (DXY) pehle 2024 bottom of 100.66 (August 23) tak gir sakta hai, jo December 2023 low of 100.61 (December 28) se closely follow hota hai, aur eventually psychological level of 100.00 ko test kar sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, immediate resistance weekly top of 103.54 (August 8) par hai, jo key 200-day SMA aur weekly peak of 104.79 (July 30) se pehle aata hai. Agar yeh area cross hota hai, toh DXY June high of 106.13 (June 26) tak barh sakta hai, jo 2024 top of 106.51 (April 16) se pehle hai.

Daily chart par, RSI oversold region mein hai 27 ke qareeb, jo near future mein ek potential bullish attempt ke liye rasta kholta hai.

Fundamental Forecast
Monetary policy US mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke zariye shape hoti hai. Fed ke do mandates hain: price stability ko achieve karna aur full employment ko foster karna. Uske primary tools yeh goals achieve karne ke liye interest rates adjust karne se hain. Jab prices bohot tez barhti hain aur inflation Fed ke 2% target se ooper hota hai, toh Fed interest rates barhata hai, jo economy mein borrowing costs ko barha deta hai. Iska nateeja ek strong US Dollar (USD) hota hai, kyunke yeh US ko international investors ke liye zyada attractive jagah bana deta hai apna paisa park karne ke liye. Jab inflation 2% se neeche girti hai ya Unemployment Rate zyada hota hai, toh Fed interest rates ko kam kar sakta hai, jo Greenback par bohot weight dalta hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) ek saal mein aath policy meetings rakhta hai, jahan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) economic conditions ko assess karta hai aur monetary policy decisions leta hai. FOMC mein twelve Fed officials hote hain – Board of Governors ke seven members, Federal Reserve Bank of New York ka president, aur remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents mein se chaar jo ek saal ke liye rotating basis par serve karte hain.

Extreme situations mein, Federal Reserve ek policy adopt kar sakta hai jise Quantitative Easing (QE) kehte hain. QE woh process hai jismein Fed financial system mein credit ke flow ko substantially increase karta hai. Yeh ek non-standard policy measure hai jo crises ke dauran ya jab inflation bohot low hota hai, use hota hai. Yeh Fed ka weapon of choice tha Great Financial Crisis 2008 ke dauran. Ismein Fed zyada Dollars print karta hai aur unhe financial institutions se high-grade bonds khareedne ke liye use karta hai. QE usually US Dollar ko weaken karta hai.

Quantitative tightening (QT) QE ka ulta process hai, jismein Federal Reserve bonds khareedna band kar deta hai financial institutions se aur jo bonds uske paas hain unke maturing par principal ko reinvest nahi karta, naye bonds khareedne ke liye. Yeh aam taur par US Dollar ke value ke liye positive hota hai."

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold price Holding Gains

US Dollar mazbooti se trade kar raha hai aur pichlay haftay ke taqreeban tamam nuqsan ko reverse kar diya hai. Markets risk on dekh rahay hain jabke US Dollar markets mein roll kar raha hai. US Dollar Index 101-region mein rally kar raha hai aur yeh Thursday ke liye apni gains ko hold karte hue acha lag raha hai.

US Dollar (USD) kafi mazbooti se trade kar raha hai aur kuch pairs mein pichlay haftay ke nuqsan ko reverse kar diya hai. Yeh khaaskar US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein Euro (EUR) mein dekhne ko milta hai, jahan bohot soft European inflation data ne pehle hi Euro ko kamzor kiya tha. Mazboot aur upbeat US data ke sath, Euro ne US Dollar ke muqable mein ek aur leg neeche liya aur filhal wo levels par trade kar raha hai jahan se usne pichlay Monday ko, Jackson Hole Symposium se pehle, shuruat ki thi.

US economic calendar front par, jese ke upar zikr kiya gaya, US Gross Domestic Product ne apni doosri reading mein second quarter ke liye upbeat numbers dikhaye. Iske ilawa, US weekly jobless claims ne ab tak strong weekly number dikhaya, jabke continuing claims mein thoda increase dekhne ko mila.

Daily digest market movers: Is GDP ke sath cut karna?
Germany aur Spain se inflation data ne disinflation trend mein izafa dikhaya, kuch German provinces ne mahana buniyad par price declines post kiye. Isne Euro (EUR) ke muqable mein US Dollar (USD) ke liye ek sharp move neeche kiya, pichlay haftay ke taqreeban tamam gains ko mita diya.

• 12:30 GMT par, ek moota data ka batch release kiya gaya:
• Weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23:
• Initial Claims 231,000 par aaye jabke pichlay haftay se 233,000 the.
• Continuing Claims ne 1.855 million be rozgar logon se barh kar 1.868 million ho gayi.
• US Gross Domestic Product ke second quarter ke liye second estimate:
• Headline GDP 2.8% se barh kar 3.0% par aa gaya.
• Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices component thoda soft hua 2.6% se 2.5% par. Core PCE bhi soft hua, 2.9% se 2.8% par.
• GDP Price Index component 2.3% par tha pehle reading mein, aur 2.5% par tick up hua.
• Wholesale Inventories for July 0.3% se barh gaye June ke 0.1% ke muqable mein. Goods Trade Balance, substantially widened hoke $102.7 billion ho gaya $97.4 billion se.
• 14:00 GMT par, Pending Home Sales for July aayenge. Umeed hai ke sales mein 0.4% ka izafa hoga, jo ke pichlay mahine ke 4.8% rise se kam hai.
• 19:30 ke qareeb, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic se comments ki umeed hai, jo Federal Reserve aur US economic outlook par ek presentation denge aur Georgia Tech's Scheller College of Business Management of Financial Institutions class ke sath ek Q&A mein hissa lenge.
• Equities upar ja rahi hain, jese ke Europe mein German Dax near 1% upar hai. US equities bhi achi spirits mein hain, jabke teen major indices 0.5% upar hain.
• CME Fedwatch Tool 65.5% ka chance dikhata hai ke Fed September mein 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut karega, jabke 34.5% ka chance 50 bps cut ke liye hai.
• Agar September mein 25 bps cut hota hai, toh November mein mazeed 25 bps cut ki umeed 44.2% hai, jabke 44.6% ka chance hai ke rates current levels se 75 bps (25 bps + 50 bps) neeche honge, aur 11.2% probability hai ke rates 100 (25 bps + 75 bps) basis points neeche honge.
• US 10-year benchmark rate 3.87% par trade kar raha hai, is haftay ke high ko test karte hue.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: A clean sheet

US Dollar Index (DXY) aglay 48 ghanton mein aik rough volatile patch mein enter kar sakta hai jab aik bulk load of data markets tak pohchega. Yeh ke DXY kuch whipsaw moves karega, yeh is wajah se hai ke Fed ne apni initial rate cut ki size ka commitment nahi kiya hai aur na hi yeh wazeh kiya hai ke yeh rate cutting cycle ka aaghaz hai ya yeh aik one-and-done cut ke sath khatam ho sakta hai. Markets pichlay haftay euphoric thay, aur ab wazeh tor par us cheerful mood ko tune down kar chuke hain jab DXY marketon ke nazar mein Fed ke aglay qadam ko dekhne ke liye barometer ban gaya hai.



Recovery ke liye, DXY ko aik lambi raah darpaish hai. Sab se pehle, 101.90 reclaim karna hoga. A steep 2% uprising ki zaroorat hogi ke index ko 103.18 tak le jaye. Ek bohot heavy resistance level near 104.00 na sirf aik pivotal technical value rakhta hai, balke yeh 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko bhi aik doosri heavyweight ke taur par price action ko cap karne ke liye rakhta hai.

Downside par, 100.62 (28 December se low) support hold karne ki koshish kar raha hai, halaan ke yeh kafi feeble lag raha hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, toh 14 July 2023 ka low 99.58 par ultimate level hoga jise dekhna hoga. Jab yeh level way dega, 2023 ke early levels jo ke 97.73 ke qareeb hain, wo samnay aayenge.

Aaj subah, Asian equity markets ziada tar red mein trade kar rahe hain, lekin kal ke Nvidia setback par WS par nuksan mutadil hai. US yields mein kuch khas tabdeeli nahi hui. Fed ke Bostic ne aik speech mein raat bhar yeh maan lia ke rate cuts ke waqt ko aage barhanay ka aik case hai, lekin phir bhi ziada evidence chahte hain jese ke wo ek aise scenario ko rokna chahte hain jahan Fed rates ko cut karne ke baad phir se raise karna pare. Dollar filhal kal ke rebound par build karne mein nakam hai (EUR/USD 1.1135, DXY 100.95). Yen thoda underperform kar raha hai (USD/JPY 144.75). Aaj ka eco calendar ziada bara hua hai jisme Belgium, Spain aur Germany mein national August inflation data shamil hai. EC European confidence data bhi release karega. US mein, US Q2 GDP growth ka second reading, pending home sales aur jobless claims publish kiye jayenge. German aur Spanish HICP inflation mazeed cool hone ki umeed hai, jo mutawatar 0.0% m/m aur 2.0% y/y aur 0.2% m/m aur 2.5% y/y par respectively expect kiya ja raha hai. ECB ke Lane ki speech bhi scheduled hai. Headline inflation ka easing September mein aglay 25 bps ECB cut ke liye umeedon ko cement karega, lekin markets underlying dynamics (core, services) par bariki se nazar rakhenge taake follow-up action ke timing ka andaaza lagaya ja sake. Fed ka focus ab ziada labour market par hone laga hai, jobless claims ab bhi kuch intraday price jitters cause kar sakte hain. Agle haftay ke key US data tak pahuchne mein, hum expect karte hain ke core yields recent bottom levels ke qareeb rahen. Abhi tak hum ek protracted USD comeback ki umeed nahi karte.

USD Index Fundamental View

Ek mulk ka Gross Domestic Product (GDP) uski economy ke growth rate ko aik mukarrar period ke dauran napta hai, aam tor par aik quarter. Sab se reliable figures woh hain jo GDP ko pichlay quarter se muqabla karte hain, jaise ke Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, ya phir pichlay saal ke usi period se muqabla karte hain, jaise ke Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures growth rate ko extrapolate karte hain jaise ke wo puray saal ke liye constant rahe. Yeh lekin ghalat fehmi paida kar sakti hain agar temporary shocks aik quarter mein growth ko impact karte hain lekin umeed hai ke puray saal tak nahi rahenge – jese ke 2020 ke pehle quarter mein covid pandemic ke outbreak ke waqt hua, jab growth plummet hui thi.

Ek higher GDP result aam tor par aik mulk ki currency ke liye positive hota hai kyunke yeh aik growing economy ko reflect karta hai, jo ziada goods aur services produce karne ke chances rakhta hai jo export kiye ja sakte hain, aur ziada foreign investment ko attract karte hain. Isi tarah, jab GDP girti hai to yeh aam tor par currency ke liye negative hoti hai. Jab economy grow karti hai to log ziada kharch karne lagte hain, jo ke inflation ki taraf le jata hai. Mulk ka central bank phir inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates ko barhata hai, jo ke global investors se ziada capital inflows attract karne ka side effect hota hai, is tarah local currency appreciate karne mein madad milti hai.

Jab economy grow karti hai aur GDP barh rahi hoti hai, to log ziada kharch karte hain jo ke inflation ki taraf le jata hai. Mulk ka central bank phir inflation ko combat karne ke liye interest rates ko barhata hai. Higher interest rates Gold ke liye negative hoti hain kyunke yeh Gold ke bajaye paisa cash deposit account mein rakhne ka opportunity-cost barhati hain. Is liye, aik higher GDP growth rate aam tor par Gold price ke liye bearish factor hota hai.

Pichle hafte se U.S. dollar mein ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai, jo ke is hafte ke aaghaz se continue hota nazar aa raha hai. Yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh trend haftay ke end tak barqarar rahega. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart par nazar daali jaye toh price lower red channel line ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ki direction ko show karta hai. Price is channel range mein fluctuate kar rahi hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke qareeb trading karna shuru karti hai aur upar ki taraf move karti hai, toh upper channel line ke qareeb pohanchte hi decline face karti hai, aur ab phir se yeh lower channel line ke qareeb aa gayi hai. Is liye lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement pichle saal ki tarah sideways direction follow karegi. Iss point par, main suggest karta hoon ke U.S. dollar ko sell karen aur doosri currencies ko buy karen.

Economic Factors Jo Dollar Ko Impact Kar Rahe Hain

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index Friday ko 103.7 se neeche drop ho gaya, jo ke chaar mahine ka lowest level hai. Ek weak U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko mazid fuel kiya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne sirf 114,000 net jobs July mein add ki, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kaafi kam hai. Iske ilawa, unemployment rate unexpected 4.3% tak barh gaya, jo ke 2021 ke baad se highest level hai, aur wage growth bhi anticipated se zyada slow hui hai.

Iske natije mein, financial markets ne is saal ke liye Federal Reserve se 100 basis points ki interest rate cuts ko price kar liya hai, jisme 50 basis points ki cut aur mazeed 25 basis points ki cut ki expectations hain jo baqi ke teen faislay ke liye hain. U.S. dollar index ko Bank of Japan ki thodi unexpected interest rate hike se bhi pressure face karna par raha hai, jo pichle Friday se yen mein 5% increase ka sabab bana.

Additional Economic Data

Thursday ko, July 26 ko khatam hone wale hafte ke initial jobless claims bhi expectations se zyada aaye, 249,000 ki expectations ke muqable mein 236,000 aaye. Iske ilawa, non-farm sector productivity second quarter ke liye estimates se zyada rahi, 2.3% change show hua jabke expectation 1.7% thi. Unit labor costs is quarter ke liye estimates se kam rahi, 0.9% aayi jabke expectation 1.8% thi. Iske ilawa, ISM Manufacturing PMI ka reading 46.8 record hui, jo ke anticipated 48.8 se kam hai.

Pichle haftay se U.S. dollar me ek bearish trend dekha gaya hai jo is hafte ke shuru hone se bhi jaari hai. Ye trend haftay ke end tak chalne ki ummeed hai. U.S. dollar index ke weekly chart ko dekhte hue, price lower red channel line ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo pichle saal ke dauran price movement ka direction indicate karti hai. Price is channel range ke andar fluctuate karti rahi hai.
Jab price lower channel line ke paas trading kar rahi thi aur upar ki taraf move karne lagi, to upper channel line ke paas jaate hue decline ka saamna kiya. Ab price phir se lower channel line ke paas hai. Isliye, lagta hai ke is saal ki price movement bhi sideways direction me hogi, jaise ke pichle saal thi. Is waqt, main U.S. dollar ko sell karne aur doosri currencies ko buy karne ki tajwez deta hoon.

Economic Factors Impacting the Dollar

Economic front par, U.S. dollar index Friday ko 103.7 se neeche chala gaya, jo chaar maheenon ka sabse kam level hai. Kamzor U.S. jobs report ne Federal Reserve se dovish expectations ko aur barha diya hai. Economic calendar ke mutabiq, U.S. economy ne July me sirf 114,000 net jobs add kiye, jo market expectation 175,000 jobs se kafi kam hai. Iske ilawa, unemployment rate 4.3% par barh gaya hai, jo 2021 ke baad ka highest level hai, aur wage growth bhi expected se zyada dheemi hui hai.

Is wajah se, financial markets ne Federal Reserve se is saal 100 basis points ke interest rate cuts ki price lagayi hai, jismein 50 basis points ki cut aur baaki ke teen decisions me 25 basis points aur cut ki ummeed hai. U.S. dollar index par Bank of Japan ke kuch had tak unexpected interest rate hike ka bhi pressure hai, jo last Friday se yen me 5% ki increase ka sabab bana.

Additional Economic Data

Thursday ko, initial jobless claims jo July 26 ko khatam hui thi, woh 249,000 aayi jo expected 236,000 se zyada hai. Iske ilawa, non-farm sector productivity for second quarter estimates se zyada thi, jo 2.3% change dikhati hai, jabke expected 1.7% tha. Unit labor costs for the quarter bhi estimates se kam aayi, jo 0.9% thi instead of expected 1.8%. Aur, ISM Manufacturing PMI ka reading 46.8 record hua, jo anticipated 48.8 se kam hai.

Recovery ke liye, DXY ko aik lambi raah darpaish hai. Sab se pehle, 101.90 reclaim karna hoga. A steep 2% uprising ki zaroorat hogi ke index ko 103.18 tak le jaye. Ek bohot heavy resistance level near 104.00 na sirf aik pivotal technical value rakhta hai, balke yeh 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko bhi aik doosri heavyweight ke taur par price action ko cap karne ke liye rakhta hai.
Downside par, 100.62 (28 December se low) support hold karne ki koshish kar raha hai, halaan ke yeh kafi feeble lag raha hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, toh 14 July 2023 ka low 99.58 par ultimate level hoga jise dekhna hoga. Jab yeh level way dega, 2023 ke early levels jo ke 97.73 ke qareeb hain, wo samnay aayenge.

Aaj subah, Asian equity markets ziada tar red mein trade kar rahe hain, lekin kal ke Nvidia setback par WS par nuksan mutadil hai. US yields mein kuch khas tabdeeli nahi hui. Fed ke Bostic ne aik speech mein raat bhar yeh maan lia ke rate cuts ke waqt ko aage barhanay ka aik case hai, lekin phir bhi ziada evidence chahte hain jese ke wo ek aise scenario ko rokna chahte hain jahan Fed rates ko cut karne ke baad phir se raise karna pare. Dollar filhal kal ke rebound par build karne mein nakam hai (EUR/USD 1.1135, DXY 100.95). Yen thoda underperform kar raha hai (USD/JPY 144.75). Aaj ka eco calendar ziada bara hua hai jisme Belgium, Spain aur Germany mein national August inflation data shamil hai. EC European confidence data bhi release karega. US mein, US Q2 GDP growth ka second reading, pending home sales aur jobless claims publish kiye jayenge. German aur Spanish HICP inflation mazeed cool hone ki umeed hai, jo mutawatar 0.0% m/m aur 2.0% y/y aur 0.2% m/m aur 2.5% y/y par respectively expect kiya ja raha hai. ECB ke Lane ki speech bhi scheduled hai. Headline inflation ka easing September mein aglay 25 bps ECB cut ke liye umeedon ko cement karega, lekin markets underlying dynamics (core, services) par bariki se nazar rakhenge taake follow-up action ke timing ka andaaza lagaya ja sake. Fed ka focus ab ziada labour market par hone laga hai, jobless claims ab bhi kuch intraday price jitters cause kar sakte hain. Agle haftay ke key US data tak pahuchne mein, hum expect karte hain ke core yields recent bottom levels ke qareeb rahen. Abhi tak hum ek protracted USD comeback ki umeed nahi karte.

Recovery ke liye, DXY ko aik lambi raah darpaish hai. Sab se pehle, 101.90 reclaim karna hoga. A steep 2% uprising ki zaroorat hogi ke index ko 103.18 tak le jaye. Ek bohot heavy resistance level near 104.00 na sirf aik pivotal technical value rakhta hai, balke yeh 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko bhi aik doosri heavyweight ke taur par price action ko cap karne ke liye rakhta hai. Downside par, 100.62 (28 December se low) support hold karne ki koshish kar raha hai, halaan ke yeh kafi feeble lag raha hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, toh 14 July 2023 ka low 99.58 par ultimate level hoga jise dekhna hoga. Jab yeh level way dega, 2023 ke early levels jo ke 97.73 ke qareeb hain, wo samnay aayenge.

Aaj subah, Asian equity markets ziada tar red mein trade kar rahe hain, lekin kal ke Nvidia setback par WS par nuksan mutadil hai. US yields mein kuch khas tabdeeli nahi hui. Fed ke Bostic ne aik speech mein raat bhar yeh maan lia ke rate cuts ke waqt ko aage barhanay ka aik case hai, lekin phir bhi ziada evidence chahte hain jese ke wo ek aise scenario ko rokna chahte hain jahan Fed rates ko cut karne ke baad phir se raise karna pare. Dollar filhal kal ke rebound par build karne mein nakam hai (EUR/USD 1.1135, DXY 100.95). Yen thoda underperform kar raha hai (USD/JPY 144.75). Aaj ka eco calendar ziada bara hua hai jisme Belgium, Spain aur Germany mein national August inflation data shamil hai. EC European confidence data bhi release karega. US mein, US Q2 GDP growth ka second reading, pending home sales aur jobless claims publish kiye jayenge. German aur Spanish HICP inflation mazeed cool hone ki umeed hai, jo mutawatar 0.0% m/m aur 2.0% y/y aur 0.2% m/m aur 2.5% y/y par respectively expect kiya ja raha hai. ECB ke Lane ki speech bhi scheduled hai. Headline inflation ka easing September mein aglay 25 bps ECB cut ke liye umeedon ko cement karega, lekin markets underlying dynamics (core, services) par bariki se nazar rakhenge taake follow-up action ke timing ka andaaza lagaya ja sake. Fed ka focus ab ziada labour market par hone laga hai, jobless claims ab bhi kuch intraday price jitters cause kar sakte hain. Agle haftay ke key US data tak pahuchne mein, hum expect karte hain ke core yields recent bottom levels ke qareeb rahen. Abhi tak hum ek protracted USD comeback ki umeed nahi karte.

US Dollar Index

ADP employment growth mein mazboot izafa humein yeh andaza de raha hai ke kal jo NFP data release hoga, usmein bhi izafa ho sakta hai. Ab tak experts ne 148K ka izafa estimate kiya hai, jo pichle mahine ke asal data 142K se zyada hai. Fed officials ne wazeh taur par yeh kaha hai ke unka focus iss waqt ek sehatmand labor market par hai, kyunke lagta hai ke inflation ka masla ab hal ho gaya hai. Isliye humein har data ka gehra mutaala karna hoga, khaaskar jo labor market se mutaliq hoga, jese ke unemployment rate aur average wage level. Ab tak yeh data USD ki growth par positive asar daal raha hai, lekin abhi ke liye quotes ek strong resistance ke qareeb pohanch rahi hain.
Daily chart ka jaiza lene par yeh wazeh hota hai ke price movement, jo ke lower 100.15 se barh raha tha, dominant bullish candlesticks ki wajah se tha. Yeh dikhata hai ke buyers ki strength upper Bollinger Bands line tak pohanchne ka potential rakhti hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke EMA50 Daily ka dynamic resistance bhi upper BB line se cross ho raha hai, jisse yeh area ek strong resistance ban gaya hai. Agar dekha jaye to green rectangle 101.83 - 102.00 ko is izafay ki maximum limit project kiya ja raha hai, isliye hum wahan sell opportunities par focus kar sakte hain. Magar abhi ke liye USD ka izafa jari hai aur koi significant weakening ke asar nahi hain, isliye abhi buy trading option behtareen choice lagti hai.

M15 basis par market buying se saturated nazar aa raha hai, yeh bearish divergence pattern ke formation se zahir hai. Iske ilawa, price pattern ne ek triple top reversal pattern banaya hai jo price ko Blue EMA50 tak neeche le ja sakta hai, aur shayad Purple EMA100 tak bhi. Yeh isliye ma'qul hai kyunke aaj raat ko US unemployment rate ka data release hoga jo short-term anti-climax ho sakta hai USD Index ke liye. Yeh projected hai ke yeh decline maximum EMA100 Purple area ko touch karega, jo ke 101.32 par hai, kyunke agar price history dekhi jaye to yeh area ek resistance se support ban gaya tha jo ke abhi tak retest nahi hua, isliye yeh opportunity kafi interesting ho sakti hai.

Trading Plan:

NFP data abhi ek din door hai, aur do timeframes par ki gayi analysis ke baad aisa lagta hai ke USD market yellow RBS area 101.32 ki taraf correct hoga, uske baad daily basis par green resistance 101.83 - 102.00 tak izafa hoga. Isliye mera trading plan kuch yeh hai:

Recovery ke liye, DXY ko aik lambi raah darpaish hai. Sab se pehle, 101.90 reclaim karna hoga. A steep 2% uprising ki zaroorat hogi ke index ko 103.18 tak le jaye. Ek bohot heavy resistance level near 104.00 na sirf aik pivotal technical value rakhta hai, balke yeh 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko bhi aik doosri heavyweight ke taur par price action ko cap karne ke liye rakhta hai. Downside par, 100.62 (28 December se low) support hold karne ki koshish kar raha hai, halaan ke yeh kafi feeble lag raha hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, toh 14 July 2023 ka low 99.58 par ultimate level hoga jise dekhna hoga. Jab yeh level way dega, 2023 ke early levels jo ke 97.73 ke qareeb hain, wo samnay aayenge.
Aaj subah, Asian equity markets ziada tar red mein trade kar rahe hain, lekin kal ke Nvidia setback par WS par nuksan mutadil hai. US yields mein kuch khas tabdeeli nahi hui. Fed ke Bostic ne aik speech mein raat bhar yeh maan lia ke rate cuts ke waqt ko aage barhanay ka aik case hai, lekin phir bhi ziada evidence chahte hain jese ke wo ek aise scenario ko rokna chahte hain jahan Fed rates ko cut karne ke baad phir se raise karna pare. Dollar filhal kal ke rebound par build karne mein nakam hai (EUR/USD 1.1135, DXY 100.95). Yen thoda underperform kar raha hai (USD/JPY 144.75). Aaj ka eco calendar ziada bara hua hai jisme Belgium, Spain aur Germany mein national August inflation data shamil hai. EC European confidence data bhi release karega. US mein, US Q2 GDP growth ka second reading, pending home sales aur jobless claims publish kiye jayenge. German aur Spanish HICP inflation mazeed cool hone ki umeed hai, jo mutawatar 0.0% m/m aur 2.0% y/y aur 0.2% m/m aur 2.5% y/y par respectively expect kiya ja raha hai. ECB ke Lane ki speech bhi scheduled hai. Headline inflation ka easing September mein aglay 25 bps ECB cut ke liye umeedon ko cement karega, lekin markets underlying dynamics (core, services) par bariki se nazar rakhenge taake follow-up action ke timing ka andaaza lagaya ja sake. Fed ka focus ab ziada labour market par hone laga hai, jobless claims ab bhi kuch intraday price jitters cause kar sakte hain. Agle haftay ke key US data tak pahuchne mein, hum expect karte hain ke core yields recent bottom levels ke qareeb rahen. Abhi tak hum ek protracted USD comeback ki umeed nahi karte.

US Dollar Index

Strong ADP Employment Growth ka Jaiza
Strong ADP employment growth ne yeh pehli nishani di hai ke aane wale NFP data mein izafa hone ki sambhavana hai. Ab tak, experts ne 148K ka izafa andaza lagaya hai, jo ke pichle mahine ke actual data 142K se zyada positive hai. Federal Reserve ke officials ne wazeh taur par kaha hai ke unka abhi ka focus aik healthy labor market par hai, kyunki inflation ka masla lagta hai ke achi tarah hal ho gaya hai. Is liye, humein har data par nazar rakhni chahiye jo release hoga, khaaskar labor market se mutaliq, jaise ke unemployment rate aur average wage level. Ab tak ka data overall USD growth par positive asar daal raha hai, lekin abhi quote mazboot resistance ke kareeb pohanch raha hai.

Daily Chart Ka Jaiza

Daily chart par dekhne se yeh wazeh hai ke price movement jo ke 100.15 se upar chali gayi, wo aik silsile se dominant bullish candlesticks se chal rahi hai. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke buyers ki taqat upper Bollinger Bands line tak pohanchne ki sambhavana hai. Dilchasp yeh hai ke EMA50 Daily ka dynamic resistance position bhi upper BB line ko cross kar raha hai, jo ke is area ko aik strong resistance banata hai. Nazron se dekha jaye to, green rectangle 101.83 - 102.00 is izafe ka maximum limit dikhayi de raha hai, is liye hum yahan bechne ki opportunities talash kar sakte hain. Lekin, abhi ke liye, USD ka izafa ab bhi jaari hai aur significant kamzori ka koi nishan nahi hai, is liye abhi kharidne ka option pehla chunaav ho sakta hai.

M15 Timeframe Ka Jaiza

M15 basis par market kharidari se saturated nazar aata hai, jo ke bearish divergence pattern ke formation se zahir hota hai. Is ke ilawa, price pattern bhi aik triple top reversal pattern bana raha hai jo price ko Blue EMA50 aur Purple EMA100 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Yeh maqsad samajh mein aata hai kyunki aaj raat US unemployment rate ka data release hoga jo ke USD Index ke liye aik short-term anti-climax ban sakta hai. Andaza hai ke yeh girawat maximum EMA100 Purple area tak pohanch sakti hai jo ke yellow mein mark kiya gaya hai at level 101.32, kyunki agar aap left side par price history dekhen, to yeh area aik resistance bana support area hai jo kabhi bhi retest nahi hua jab price haal hi mein upar gayi thi, is liye wahan mauka bohot dilchasp hoga.

Trading Plan

Jab NFP data abhi ek din door hai, aur upar diye gaye do timeframes ke analysis ke natije ke mutabiq, lagta hai ke USD market 101.32 ke yellow RBS area ki taraf correct hoga pehle ke is izafe ke liye 101.83 - 102.00 ki green resistance ki taraf, is liye mera aik simple trading plan yeh hai: Buy Limit yellow RBS area M15 101.35 - 101.30 par rakhenge, SL 101.00 aur TP 101.83 - 102.00 par.

US Dollar Index

Strong ADP employment growth gives an early indication that the NFP to be released tomorrow has the potential to increase, so far experts have estimated an increase of 148K, which is more positive than the actual data in the previous month of 142K. Fed officials have clearly stated that their current focus is on a healthy labor market, because the inflation problem seems to have been successfully resolved. Therefore, we must be vigilant about every data that will be released, especially regarding the labor market, including the unemployment rate and average wage level. So far, the data has had a positive impact on overall USD growth, but currently the quote is starting to approach strong resistance.
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Observing the daily chart, it is clear that the price movement that rose from lower 100.15 was driven by a series of dominant bullish candlesticks, this indicates that the buyer's strength has the potential to reach the upper Bollinger Bands line, interestingly the dynamic resistance position of the EMA50 Daily is also crossing the upper BB line, making the area a strong resistance. Visually, it can be observed that the green rectangle 101.83 - 102.00 is projected to be the maximum limit of this increase, so we can focus on looking for sell opportunities there. However, for now, the increase in the USD is still ongoing and there are no signs of significant weakening, so the buy trading option can be the main choice for now.

On the M15 basis, the market appears to be saturated with buying, this can be seen from the formation of a bearish divergence pattern. In addition, the price pattern also forms a triple top reversal pattern that can bring the price down towards the Blue EMA50 and even the Purple EMA100. This makes sense because tonight the US unemployment rate data will be released which can be a short-term anti-climax for the USD Index. It is projected that this decline will touch the maximum EMA100 Purple area marked in yellow at level 101.32, because if you look at the price history on the left, this area is a resistance become support area that has never been retested after the price has recently risen, so the opportunity will be very interesting there.

Trading Plan

With the NFP data still one day away, plus the results of the analysis on the two timeframes above, it seems that the USD market will be corrected towards the yellow RBS area of 101.32 before continuing its increase towards the green resistance of 101.83 - 102.00 on a daily basis, so I have a simple trading plan as follows: Buy Limit in the yellow RBS area M15 101.35 - 101.30 with SL 101.00 and TP 101.83 - 102.00.

US Dollar Index

ADP employment growth ke strong numbers yeh pehla ishara de rahe hain ke kal release hone wala NFP data bhi izafa dikha sakta hai. Ab tak experts ne 148K ka izafa estimate kiya hai, jo ke pichlay maheenay ke asal data 142K se zyada positive hai. Fed officials ne wazeh tor par yeh keh diya hai ke unka focus ab ek healthy labor market par hai, kyun ke inflation ka masla lagta hai ke kaafi had tak hal ho gaya hai. Is liye, humein har aane wale data par nigah rakhni hogi, khaaskar labor market ka data, jaise ke unemployment rate aur average wage level. Ab tak, yeh data USD ke growth par positive asar daal raha hai, lekin abhi ke waqt mein quote strong resistance ke qareeb pahunch rahi hai.
Daily chart par dekha jaye to wazeh hai ke price movement jo ke lower 100.15 se upar gayi thi, woh ek series of dominant bullish candlesticks ki wajah se thi, jo buyers ki strength ko zahir karti hai. Yeh potential hai ke price upper Bollinger Bands line tak pahunch sakti hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke EMA50 Daily ka dynamic resistance bhi upper BB line ko cross kar raha hai, jo is area ko ek strong resistance bana raha hai. Dekhnay se maloom hota hai ke green rectangle 101.83 - 102.00 ko is increase ka maximum limit project kiya gaya hai, is liye hum wahan sell opportunities dekh sakte hain. Lekin abhi tak, USD ka increase jaari hai aur koi significant weakening ke signs nahi hain, is liye filhal buy trading option ko pehla choice rakha ja sakta hai.

M15 timeframe par dekha jaye to market buying se saturated lag raha hai, jahan bearish divergence pattern bana hai. Is ke ilawa, price pattern ne ek triple top reversal pattern bhi form kiya hai jo price ko Blue EMA50 aur hatta ke Purple EMA100 tak neeche le ja sakta hai. Yeh sense banta hai kyun ke aaj raat ko US unemployment rate ka data release hoga, jo USD Index ke liye short-term anti-climax ka sabab ban sakta hai. Yeh project kiya gaya hai ke yeh decline maximum EMA100 Purple area tak touch karega, jo ke 101.32 ke level par hai. Agar aap price history ko dekhen to yeh wo area hai jo pehle resistance tha aur ab support ban gaya hai, aur jab se price upar gayi hai isko retest nahi kiya gaya, to wahan ek kaafi dilchasp opportunity ho sakti hai.

Trading Plan:

NFP data aane mein ek din baqi hai, aur dono timeframes ke analysis ke mutabiq lagta hai ke USD market 101.32 ke yellow RBS area tak correct ho sakta hai, isse pehle ke yeh daily basis par green resistance 101.83 - 102.00 ki taraf barhe. Is liye mera simple trading plan yeh hai: Buy Limit lagayi jaye yellow RBS area M15 101.35 - 101.30 par, SL 101.00 aur TP 101.83 - 102.00.

US Dollar Index

Dollar trend agle haftay mein bullish hone ki umeed hai, kyunke pichle haftay ki trading ke end par price ko monthly level 99.98 se support mila.
Is mahine, US dollar price ne bearish pattern mein trading shuru ki, jahan bearish price channels pichle do mahine ke dauran price movement ki direction ko darshate hain, aur price monthly pivot level 102.020 se neeche hai. Haqiqat mein, pehla price peak monthly pivot level ke neeche ban gaya aur price girna shuru hui, magar uske baad price ne bearish trend ki kamzori ke asraat diye aur price ne upar aane ki koshish ki, jaisa ke hum chart par dekhte hain ke price channels ko torne ki kai koshishen hui.

Pichle haftay ki trading 99.98 level se doobara rebound ke sath khatam hui aur price channels ke bahar band hui. Isliye, agle haftay humein price behavior par nazar rakhni hogi taake agle direction ka pata lag sake, kyunke agle haftay price movement ke liye do imkaan hain.

Pehla yeh hai ke price thoda upar jaye aur phir neeche aakar broken channels ko retest kare, aur agar retest pattern successfully khatam hota hai tou hum US dollar kharidna shuru kar sakte hain, aur yeh sab se zyada mumkin scenario hai. Dusra imkaan yeh hai ke price upar nahi aa sakti aur is tarah 99.98 level ko todti hai, aur 4 trading hours ke liye price channels mein trading karti hai. Is surat mein, hum agle haftay mein US dollar mein mazeed girawat dekh sakte hain.

US Dollar Index

USDX index ke liye is hafte ka price bullish candle ke sath band hua hai, lekin agar hum H1 time frame par chart ko ghoor se dekhein, to USDX index abhi bhi consolidation phase mein hai aur sabse qareebi support filhal price level 102.89 par hai. Market band hone se pehle buyer camp se push mil rahi thi, aur mere scenario ke mutabiq, USDX index ke liye ye bohot mumkin hai ke supply aur resistance area ko price level 103.15 par test kare. Agar 103.15 ka supply aur resistance successfully break ho gaya, to price mein izafa ka potential barqarar rahega. Lekin, agar price 103.15 ka level break karne mein nakam hota hai, to bohot mumkin hai ke price pullback kare.
Agar main H4 time frame par chart dekhoon, to USDX index mein kaafi significant fluctuations dikhai de rahe hain, aur USD session mein price buyers ke zariye dominate ho raha hai. Is se sabse qareebi supply aur resistance 103.15 par break ho gaya hai, aur mumkin hai ke price agla supply aur resistance level 103.52 par test kare. Agar price isko break karne mein nakam rehta hai, to price ka pullback hone ka imkaan hai. Ye rejection yeh dikhata hai ke bulls abhi bhi control mein hain, lekin key levels par supply immediate gains ko rok rahi hai. Ainday ke liye, agar 101.80 ka level phir se test hota hai, to bullish momentum dobara zinda ho sakta hai, jahan potential targets 104.81 aur 106.15 ho sakte hain.

Aaj raat USD session ke dauran USDX index mein pehle decline dekha gaya, lekin thori dair baad USDX index ne dobara rise karna shuru kar diya, jisse ab ka price supply aur resistance 103.32 par test karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Meri apni assumption ye hai ke agar price 103.32 ka supply aur resistance break karne mein kaamyab ho gaya, to izafa ka potential barqarar rahega. Aur agar 103.32 ka level successfully break ho gaya, to agla target supply aur resistance 103.50 par hoga. Lekin agar 103.50 ka level break nahi hota, to price ka pullback hone ka imkaan hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

DXY Next Week Analysis: Kia Trump ki Jeet aur Fed ka Agla Iqdaam Market Sentiment ko Shift Kar Sakega?

US Dollar Index mein Trump ki Jeet aur Fed Rate Cut ke baad 0.61% ka Weekly Izafa dekhne mein aya hai, jiss se dollar ki mazboti ki akasi hoti hai. Dollar demand ko boost mila inflation fears ki wajah se, jise traders ne volatile week mein Trump ke economic policies aur Fed ke rate cut par react karte hue positioning mein adjust kiya. Market ke andar inflation aur Trump ki policies ne dollar ke strength outlook ko shape karna shuru kar diya hai. Gold apne paanch mahine ke low par gira hai, jise dollar ke gains, high yields aur traders ke shifting inflation expectations ne niche ki taraf push kiya. Germany mein political instability ke pressure ki wajah se Euro mein bhi 1.05% ka girawat aayi, jo dollar strength se impact hota hai. Agle hafte ke U.S. inflation data aur Fed December meeting se dollar ka near-term course set hone ki umeed hai, aur traders policy shifts par nazar rakhe hue hain.

Trump Victory aur Fed Rate Cut ke Baad U.S. Dollar Ne Volatile Hafta High Par Khatam Kiya

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 104.951 par week close hua, jo 0.61% ka izafa tha, aur high 105.441 aur low 103.373 tak pohanch gaya, jo strong finish tha Trump ke economic policies aur Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke speculation par. Market Trump ke potential pro-growth aur inflationary policies jaise ke increased tariffs aur deregulation ke umeed mein dollar par bullish ho gaya, kyunke traders ne inflation outlook ko recalibrate kiya. Dollar ke gains reflect karte hain traders ki inflationary pressures ke liye positioning jo Fed ke future rate path ko affect kar sakti hai.

Trump Policies Dollar Momentum ko Spark Karti Hain

Dollar ka rally mid-week Trump ki election jeet ke sath trigger hua, jab traders ne tax cuts, deregulation aur tariffs ke possibility par react kiya jo growth ko boost karne aur inflation ko drive kar sakte hain. Lekin kuch profit-taking bhi hui, jisne rally ko moderate kiya aur DXY ko apne weekly peak ke niche close karwaya. Analysts ne warning di hai ke significant uncertainty hai ke Trump ka campaign rhetoric policy mein kis had tak translate hoga, jo market ko speculation mein dalta hai. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist Bannockburn Global Forex mein, kehtay hain ke “considerable volatility” ye uncertainty ko reflect karti hai jab tak ke traders Trump ki policy direction ka intezar karte hain.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Ne Outlook Ko Complicate Kar Diya

Thursday ko, Fed ne rates ko 25 basis points tak kam kiya aur target range ko 4.50%-4.75% par le aya, ye uska dosra consecutive cut tha. Chair Jerome Powell ne flexible stance ko reinforce kiya, ye indicate karte hue ke future rate decisions economic data aur inflationary signals par depend karenge, na ke kisi preset path par.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq December mein ek aur rate cut ka probability 65% hai, jo ke pichlay week ke 83% se down hai, kyunke traders Trump ke administration ke potential inflation ke effects ko factor kar rahe hain. Powell ne emphasize kiya ke election result immediate policy ko change nahi karega lekin inflation ke shifting landscape ko acknowledge kia.

Market Forecast: Dollar Gains ke Liye Positioned Hai, Lekin Volatility Expected Hai

Agle haftay ke liye dollar ka outlook bullish hai, jo Fed ke cautious stance aur Trump ke administration ke inflationary policies ki anticipation par based hai.

Lekin agla U.S. consumer price data, jo ke Wednesday ko release hoga, wo Fed ke expectations ko shape kar sakta hai December meeting se pehle. Jab ke dollar strong footing par hai, profit-taking aur policy uncertainties ke wajah se short-term volatility ka potential hai jab markets Fed aur Trump administration ki policy framework se clear signals ka intezar karte hain.

Next Week Highlights

Agle haftay ka highlight hoga October ka inflation data, jo ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) se track hoga. Iske ilawa, weekly labor market updates bhi focus mein hongay, jo ke secondary importance mein aayenge lekin fir bhi relevant rahenge. Fed officials ke comments bhi worth watching honge, khas tor par central bank ke recent rate cut ke baad.



U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ke upward climb mein, agla key target November ka high 105.44 (November 6) hai, jis ke baad June ka top 106.13 (June 13) aata hai. Downside par, November low 103.37 (November 5) pehla hai, jo provisional 100-day aur 55-day SMAs 103.07 aur 102.35 par hai, jo ke 2024 ka bottom 100.15 (September 27) ke aage hai.

Daily chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne 63 level cross kiya hai, jabke Average Directional Index (ADX) ab 38 ke upar hai, jo ye indicate karta hai ke current trend mein moderate strength hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

US Dollar Skids to Two-Week Trough as US Yields Decline

US dollar ne European trade me Friday ko apne two-week trough ko touch kiya against major rivals ke basket, jab US 10-year treasury yields ne ground lose kiya.

Yeh developments Federal Reserve ke latest meeting minutes ke baad samne aayi hain, jo expected se zyada bearish the, aur December me 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances barha diye hain.

The Index
Dollar index aaj 0.5% gira, 105.62 par pohanch gaya, jo November 12 ke baad se sabse low hai, jabke session-high 106.15 tha.

Thursday ko, index 0.1% bara tha thin trading ke bawajood, jab US markets Thanksgiving ke liye band thi.

Weekly Trades
Dollar index is hafte ab tak 1.75% down hai, jo late September ke baad se pehli weekly loss ki taraf indicate kar raha hai.

US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields 1.1% gir gayi aur consecutive third session me losses sharpen huye, 4-week lows 4.203% tak pohanch gaye, jisne greenback par pressure dala.

US Rates
Recent data ne US economy me expected se zyada flexibility dikhayi hai, jab inflation taper ho raha hai.

Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, December me 0.25% Fed interest rate cut ke chances 67% hain.

Ab investors zyada data aur Fed officials ke speeches ka intezar kar rahe hain taake zyada clues mil saken.

Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis

Dollar Index (DXY) $105.76 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.37% down hai, aur bearish sentiment ko reflect kar raha hai jabke yeh pivot point $105.87 ke neeche hai. Immediate support $105.59 par hai, aur deeper levels $105.31 aur $105.00 par hain.



Resistance $106.19 par hai, followed by $106.43 aur $106.76. 50-day EMA $106.41 resistance ko reinforce karta hai, jabke 200-day EMA $106.08 index ke weakening momentum ko highlight karta hai.

Agar $105.87 ke upar break hota hai, to trend upward shift kar sakta hai aur higher levels target kar sakta hai, lekin agar recovery fail hoti hai, to index support zones ki taraf ja sakta hai.