𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐉𝐏𝐘

Main H1-timeframe par dollar-yen jodi par nazar daal raha hoon. Jodi ne kuch waqt tak 151.356 ke qareeb support ke ird gird ek range mein chal rahi thi. Phir sab kuch aisa lag raha tha ke sellers ke stops market se nikal rahe hain. Phir sellers ne volume barhana shuru kiya, aur yahan par kharidari se bhi volume tha, halankeh kharidari se volume yahan par numaya nahi tha. Main yeh samajhta hoon ke yahan par ek girawat hogi, kyunke sab kuch aisa lag raha tha ke ek girawat ke baad, jab sellers ke stops hata diye gaye aur ek aur correction hua, ab is decent girawat ke baad saaf hai ke seller volume barha rahe hain. Yani, ek volumetric kam hota gaya, jise sab kuch ne bazar mein buyers ke bade hone ka ishara diya. Ye girawat dikhata hai ke bazar mein ek decent tadad mein buyers thi aur ye zyadatar yeh darshata hai ke yahan par tezi hogi.
USD/JPY ki movement Fibonacci numbers ke mutabiq. Market price 151.143 Fibonacci grid ke banaye gaye 0% (151.123) aur 50% (151.447) levels ke darmiyan hai. 100% level ka upper point kal ke Daily HIGH ke sath set kiya gaya tha jo ke 151.770 ke qeemat par hai. Sab se neeche 0% par Daily LOW-151.123 hai. Rozana candle ka neeche hona ek bearish pattern ko banata hai, 23.6% (151.276), 38.2% (151.370) aur extreme bearish resistance 50% (151.447) levels se, jo ke control mein hona chahiye taake market is se upar na bhage. 50% (151.447) level ke upar market consolidating hai, uttar ki disha mein 100% (151.770) level ke taraf ja raha hai. Ye scenario aapko khareedne ke liye entry point dhoondhne ki anumati deta hai jab market dobara fibo level 50% (151.447) par lautega. Main yahan par bechne ke take-takes ko -23.6% (150.970) aur -38.2% (150.876) levels par rakhta hoon, is jagah, qeemat rukti hai, market ulte disha mein jane ki taraf tend karti hai, jo ke manzoori hasil hone ke liye matloob munafa nuksan kar sakta hai.

Technical Analysis USD/JPY.
Agar din ka balance 151.70 ko nahi todta, toh main is jodi ke liye ek reversal aur support H1 150.40 ki taraf giravat ka qayam karunga, ek breakout mumkin hai, lekin hamain bila shuba ek u-turn nahi milayga, hamain 150.15 ko todna hoga, phir wo isay palat sakte hain, warna support H1 150.40 ya mushkil darja 150.15 se unka barhna 153.10 ki taraf jaari reh sakta hai, aur darmiyan-muddat ka sarneema nishan 156.25. Agar ek palat mein wo din ka balance 151.70 ko tod sakte hain, toh main mazeed barhna ko qayam karta hoon 152.05 ki taraf, wahan se jodi 151.05 tak wapas palat sakti hai ek naye din ka balance ki taraf aur phir se us se door 153.10 ki taraf, jahan main ek bara taqreeb ko istesal nahi kar raha hoon jis mein barhna mukhtalif medium-term target 156.25 ki taraf.

USD/JPY H1 Tafseeli Jaiza.

USD/JPY currency pair ne kal aakhir mein woh wedge jo pehle banaya tha usay tor diya aur oopar ki taraf rawana hua - dollar mazid mazboot hota gaya. Aaj, maqsood mukhtasaran kal ke Wednesday ke uchh walo ki taraf 151.97 hai, matlab jodi ko 152.00 ka ahem level mubarikat mein daalna hai. Hum baad mein natija dekheinge. Bhool na jayein ke yeh level USD/JPY ke liye bohot ahem hai, aur ek breakout yen ki kamzori ka ek naya marhala darust karayga, jo ke Japan Bank ki kuch khaas karwaiyon ko trigger kar sakta hai. Kam az kam abhi ke liye, yeh laga nazar aata hai aur zahiran fiel mein muqabla hota hai, lekin kis se?

USD/JPY

Shab bakhair doston! Jab pair ek range mein trading kar raha tha, to is range mein khaas tor par khareedari ka volume tha. Main ne phir yeh samjha ke pair 153.377 resistance tak chala jayega, yani ke is ke bawajood ke pair pichle uchayiyo ke qareeb trading kar raha tha, khareedne walay pooray volume hasil kar rahe thay. Mujhe yeh bhi nahi tha ke yeh khareedari ke stops uthaye jayenge, ke pair 150.889 tak jayega. Main is girawat ko sirf khareedne walon ke stops ko khatam karne ka tasawur karta hoon; un mein se kuch kiya gaya aur palat diya gaya. Aur mujhe lagta hai ke yeh urooj ki dobara shuruat hai, ke pair ooncha jayega. Abhi, abhi, main pair ko bech raha hoon, sirf ek technical pullback ke saath. Bas yeh ek dafa tha ke itihas mein aisi hi situation thi: jab pair 5-minute chart par trading kar raha tha, bay-rozgari ke data aya tha. Yeh upar gaya, phir palat gaya aur phir se lagta tha ke urooj shuru ho raha hai, lekin us se pehle bechne wale ka volume tha. Lagta hai ke bechne walon ke stops pehle uthaye gaye thay phir mazeed girawat aayi. Aur mazeed, pound dollar bhi badh raha hai, yani ke dollar kamzor ho raha hai. Kisi qisam ka kuch kam hona mumkin hai.

Main sochta hoon ke USD/JPY h1 currency pair ke is urooj ka silsila jari rahega. Pehle, urooj ke doran, keemat ne do mazboot levels ko tor diya tha - daily aur haftawar 151.51 ke aas paas aur level ke upar musalat ho gaya, isey support mein tabdeel karte hue. Level ko torne ke baad, keemat ikhatta ho gayi aur pehle tora gaya level ko bar bar test kiya gaya lekin neeche nahi gayi, khareedne walay level ko qaim rakhte hain aur is par keemat ko khareedte hain, yahan woh zyada tar urooj ke liye positions ikhatta kar rahe hain. Teer nishan dene wala indicator ishara deta hai ke upar ka safar jari rahega, jo doosri urooj wale lehr ko bhi tasdeeq karta hai. Main samajhta hoon ke yahan se level se khareedne par ghor kiya jana chahiye, chhoti se rok tham ke saath. Khareedne ke liye maqsad 152.30 marka hosakta hai; is marka par resistance hai aur rozana ki darmiyanah guzarish urooj ke liye wahan tak pohanch sakti hai, is qadar ikhatta ho jane ke baad, lekin pehli dafa mein asani se guzarna mumkin nahi hai, main wahan se neeche ki taraf palat ka intezar karonga.

USD/JPY

H1 time frame mein USD/JPY currency pair ka ta'aruf karwaya ja raha hai, jismein traders ko guide karne ke liye tafseeli analysis aur outlook diya gaya hai. Yeh analysis potential price movements, breakout scenarios, aur overarching market dynamics mein dakhil hai taake traders ko short-term trading opportunities pe faida uthane ke liye qeemti insights di jaa sakein.



Price Levels aur Breakout Scenarios Ki Analysis: Maujooda price level 151.30 par, USD/JPY pair mein ek continued fall ki tawaqquh hai, jahan ek potential rise 151.68 tak ho sakti hai pehle ek decline ke baad. Magar agar trading 151.70 tak pohanchti hai, toh ek further decline ke chances hain, khaaskar ek false breakout ke baad is level se. Analysis ne 150.80 range ki ahmiyat ko highlight kiya hai, jo ek breakthrough aur consolidation neeche is se ek selling opportunity ki nishaani ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, 152.00 aur 151.65 pe false breakouts ko mention kiya gaya hai jaise ke continued downward movement ke potential indicators. Ek khaas focus 151.58 range pe rakha gaya hai, jo ke iska neeche break ek aur decline ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Analysis ne recent market growth ko corrective appreciation ke taur par characterize kiya hai, jo ke ek potential shift in momentum ko towards selling USD/JPY signal karta hai. Chhoti upward movements, jaise 151.95 tak, ke bawajood, overall trend mein ek continued decline ka favor hai, khaaskar ek breakout ke baad neeche 150.88 se.

Outlook aur Strategic Considerations: D1 chart pe portray ki gayi positive outlook ke saath milta julta, jo ke buyers ke liye favorable conditions ko suggest karta hai, ek potential continuation ke liye aise market dynamics ka. Yeh trend buyers ke liye optimism highlight nahi karta hi, balki sustained momentum ke faida mand positions ko across various time frames mein favor karta hai. Growing buyer pressure ke saath, buy-side trading mein engage hona ek samajhdar faisla saabit hota hai, prevailing market sentiment ke saath align hone ka. Khaas tor pe USD/JPY pair pe focus karte hue, analysis ne D1 aur H4 charts mein buyer pressure mein significant uptick ko highlight kiya hai. Short-term traders ke liye, hourly time frames aur technical indicators jaise Moving Averages aur Bollinger Bands valuable insights aur strategic advantages provide kar sakte hain.

Technical Indicators aur Strategic Insights ka Istemaal: Hourly time frames market movements ki zyada dakhilatain faraham karte hain, traders ke liye precise entry aur exit points ke liye. Technical indicators jaise Moving Averages trend direction aur potential reversal points ko samajhne mein madadgar hote hain, jabke Bollinger Bands volatility measures faraham karte hain breakout opportunities ko identify karne ke liye. In tools ko buy-side trading strategy mein shaamil karke traders profitable exits ko secure karne aur returns ko maximize kar sakte hain. Prevailing market dynamics ke saath trading decisions ko align karke, traders ko favorable conditions pe capitalize karne aur potential risks ko mitigate karne ke liye apne aap ko position karne ka mauqa mil sakta hai.

Market Developments ko Monitor karna aur Strategies ko Adapt karna: Agli trading week ke liye aage dekhte hue, zaruri hai ke USD/JPY pair ko closely monitor kiya jaye kisi bhi shifts in market sentiment ya key economic developments ke liye jo price action ko influence kar sakte hain. Agar informed aur adaptable rehna, traders market ko confidence ke saath navigate kar sakte hain aur emerging opportunities pe faida utha sakte hain. Aakhri mein, analysis ne USD/JPY market mein continued buyer pressure ke potential ko highlight kiya hai, traders ke liye ek buy-side trading strategy adopt karne ka ek mauqa. Technical analysis ka istemaal karke aur market developments ko closely monitor karke, traders apne aap ko upcoming trading week mein success ke liye position kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY H1 aur H4

Tijarat mein price action analysis aik ahem pehlu hai, khaaskar jub baat market trends ke muhalif ya jari rehne ki mumkinat ko pehchanne ki hoti hai. Woh traders jo channel patterns par tawajjo dete hain, unke liye channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb ke price ka rawayya nihayat ahem hai. Yeh ilaqa aksar aik ahem nukaat ka kaam karta hai jahan market sentiment tabdeel ho sakti hai, jis se bullish trend se bearish trend ki taraf mawalid hoti hai.

Ek barra tareen indicator jo traders istemal karte hain ta ke reversal ki sambhavna ka andaza lagaya ja sake, woh hai bearish candlestick patterns. Ye patterns, jese ke bearish engulfing patterns ya evening stars, ishara dete hain ke bechnay ki dabao barh rahi hai, jo mojooda uptrend mein reversal ki sambhavna ko ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, oscillators jese ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) market ke haalat mein qeemti insights faraham kar sakte hain. RSI ke overbought conditions channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb indicate karte hain ke market ka reversal mumkin hai jub buying momentum kamzor hoti hai.

Magar, traders ke liye sirf aik indicator par bharosa na karna, balke mukhtalif sources se tasdeeq talash karna zaroori hai. Agar channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb ke price action bearish candlestick patterns ya RSI jese oscillators ki overbought conditions ke saath milta hai, to yeh ek potential reversal ke liye case ko mazid mazboot karta hai.

Dosri taraf, agar pair channel ke upper boundary se bahar nikalta hai, to yeh ek uptrend ke jaari rehne ka ishara ho sakta hai. Is breakout se mazeed bullish movement ki tasdeeq hoti hai, jise traders long positions lenay ke liye istemal kar sakte hain aur trend ko barhawa de sakte hain.

Takhleeq ke tor par, channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb price action ki nigrani karna aur mukhtalif indicators se tasdeeq talash karna traders ke liye sambhalat ahem hai ta ke woh market trends mein potential reversals ya jaari rehne ko pehchan sakein. Hoshiyar aur mustaid reh kar, traders inform ki gayi faislay kar sakte hain aur munafa afroz trading opportunities se faida utha sakte hain.

Muqabla level, jo ke aksar keemat ki movement mein chhat hota hai, traders ke liye aik ahem juncture pesh karta hai. Jab aise level ka samna hota hai, to sabar ahem ho jata hai. Jaldi trade mein dakhil hone ke bajaye, intezar karna munasib hai ta ke ek trade setup ki takhleeq ho. Yeh market ke haalat ka ek mukammal jaiza lene ki ijarah hai aur behtareen faislay karne ki sambhavna ko barhata hai.

Trade setups asal mein patterns ya signals hote hain jo ke keemat ke rukh mein potential shifts ko indicate karte hain. Yeh bohot sare hote hain, jinme technical indicators, candlestick patterns, aur fundamental analysis shaamil hota hai. Ek trade setup ke takhleeq hone ka signal potential dakhil ya nikalne ke points ke liye hota hai. Maslan, ek bullish candlestick pattern jo resistance level par emerge hota hai, bechnay ki dabao ki kamzori aur price ke rukh mein mukhtalif hone ki sambhavna ko dikhata hai. Ulti taraf, technical indicators mein bearish divergence downward pressure ka andaza dilate hain, resistance level ki ahmiyat ko mazid barhate hue.

Iske ilawa, ek trade setup ka intezar karke ghair maqool dakhilat ke risk ko kam kiya ja sakta hai. Bina kisi tasdeeq ke jaldi trade mein dakhil hone se galati hone ki sambhavna barh jati hai. Sabar aur disipline se kaam karke, traders aghwae karwaiyon se bach sakte hain aur sound analysis par mabni ek nizamati tareeqe se qadam utha sakte hain.

Ahmiyat hai ke keemat resistance level ke ird gird chalti rahe, apni taqat ko kai martaba test karti rahe, ek taslees ki fauj ya reversal ke hone se pehle. Yeh hifazati aur sabar ki ahmiyat ko dobara qaaim karti hai, kyun ke market apni iradon ko zaahir karne mein waqt leti hai.

Ikhtisar mein, jab resistance level ka muqabla hota hai, to sabar se kaam lena aur ek trade setup ka intezar karna faida mand hai. Yeh approach traders ko relevant maloomat ikattha karne, market dynamics ko dekhne aur ache faislay karne ki salahiyat faraham karta hai. Farigh kiye gaye jald se behtar darusti pe tawajjo dena, traders ko market ke complications ka samna karte waqt unke imkanaat ko barhata hai.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis


USD/JPY currency pair ka mojuda tajziya iski bulandi ki rah par umeed afroz manzar ka tasawur deta hai. Stochastic oscillator ne nichle girne wale trend zone ke upar apni jagah bana rakhi hai, jisse bullish momentum ka wazeh ishara milta hai. Iske alawa, 151.93 critical resistance level par mukarrar imtehanat ki roshni mein, barhte hue bullish dabao ko zor se mehsoos kiya ja raha hai. Agar ye resistance level par qayam ho gaya, to yeh aik bari bulandi ki taraf le jane wala hareef harkat ko janam de sakta hai jo ke qareebi mustaqbil mein aik wasee bullish trend ki nishani ho sakti hai. Magar haal hi ki qeemat ki harkat ne dikhaya hai ke USD/JPY pair ne mukarrar 151.93 resistance level ko chand lamho ke liye paar kar liya tha phir wapas a gaya, jise yeh darust karta hai ke bullish aur bearish quwatoo ke darmiyan aik waqtanahi bekarari hai. Yeh mojuda ghaflat mojuda stage ko wazeh karti hai jo ke yen ko is ke peechle 151.59 trading level tak wapas lene ki taraf ishara deti hai, jo ke chhoti muddat mein range-bound harkat ka jari rahna ka aashna hai.


Ikhtisar mein, jabke USD/JPY pair ka overal manzar upar ki taraf ki umeedon se bhara hai, mojuda qeemati harkat ko waqtanahi rokawat ka aik tasalsul hai. Karobariyon ko 151.93 critical resistance level ko qareebi nazar se dekhna chahiye, kyunke aik mustaqil paar hone se mazeed izafay ki taraf rasta ban sakta hai jo 154.29 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Mere liye, 152.00 ki range aik sell zone hai, jiska matlab hai ke main sirf yahan se chhote karnay ka mansooba banata hoon. Is ke mutabiq, aik din ke andar main ek rebound ka intezar kar raha hoon aur qeemat ko 151.30 par wapas lane ki koshish kar raha hoon. Daraaz ki taraf jari range-bound trading ki taraf ki raftar ka ishtiqazi insad nazar aata hai, jise aglay trading session ke maand ko tasleem karne ke liye automatic taur par tasdeeq shumaar kiya jata hai, jahan isharye 150.05 ke darust hone ki taraf ishara karte hain.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Shab bakhair doston! Jab pair ek range mein trading kar raha tha, to is range mein khaas tor par khareedari ka volume tha. Main ne phir yeh samjha ke pair 153.377 resistance tak chala jayega, yani ke is ke bawajood ke pair pichle uchayiyo ke qareeb trading kar raha tha, khareedne walay pooray volume hasil kar rahe thay. Mujhe yeh bhi nahi tha ke yeh khareedari ke stops uthaye jayenge, ke pair 150.889 tak jayega. Main is girawat ko sirf khareedne walon ke stops ko khatam karne ka tasawur karta hoon; un mein se kuch kiya gaya aur palat diya gaya. Aur mujhe lagta hai ke yeh urooj ki dobara shuruat hai, ke pair ooncha jayega. Abhi, abhi, main pair ko bech raha hoon, sirf ek technical pullback ke saath. Bas yeh ek dafa tha ke itihas mein aisi hi situation thi: jab pair 5-minute chart par trading kar raha tha, bay-rozgari ke data aya tha. Yeh upar gaya, phir palat gaya aur phir se lagta tha ke urooj shuru ho raha hai, lekin us se pehle bechne wale ka volume tha. Lagta hai ke bechne walon ke stops pehle uthaye gaye thay phir mazeed girawat aayi. Aur mazeed, pound dollar bhi badh raha hai, yani ke dollar kamzor ho raha hai. Kisi qisam ka kuch kam hona mumkin hai.



Main sochta hoon ke USD/JPY h1 currency pair ke is urooj ka silsila jari rahega. Pehle, urooj ke doran, keemat ne do mazboot levels ko tor diya tha - daily aur haftawar 151.51 ke aas paas aur level ke upar musalat ho gaya, isey support mein tabdeel karte hue. Level ko torne ke baad, keemat ikhatta ho gayi aur pehle tora gaya level ko bar bar test kiya gaya lekin neeche nahi gayi, khareedne walay level ko qaim rakhte hain aur is par keemat ko khareedte hain, yahan woh zyada tar urooj ke liye positions ikhatta kar rahe hain. Teer nishan dene wala indicator ishara deta hai ke upar ka safar jari rahega, jo doosri urooj wale lehr ko bhi tasdeeq karta hai. Main samajhta hoon ke yahan se level se khareedne par ghor kiya jana chahiye, chhoti se rok tham ke saath. Khareedne ke liye maqsad 152.30 marka hosakta hai; is marka par resistance hai aur rozana ki darmiyanah guzarish urooj ke liye wahan tak pohanch sakti hai, is qadar ikhatta ho jane ke baad, lekin pehli dafa mein asani se guzarna mumkin nahi hai, main wahan se neeche ki taraf palat ka intezar karonga.

USDJPY


As investors brace themselves for the potential impact on inflation, economic growth, and ultimately, currency valuations, every movement in the USD/JPY pair carries significant weight in the intricate tapestry of global finance. Acting as a barometer of market sentiment, the USD/JPY pair reflects the collective wisdom of investors meticulously analyzing a plethora of geopolitical and economic variables. Against the backdrop of today's uncertainties, the downward trajectory of the USD/JPY pair underscores the cautious optimism tinged with apprehension that permeates the financial markets. The USD/JPY pair's movement is closely scrutinized by investors worldwide due to its pivotal role in assessing market sentiment and predicting broader economic trends. As one of the most traded currency pairs in the world, it provides valuable insights into the prevailing mood among market participants. Fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair can be indicative of shifts in risk appetite, investor confidence, and global economic conditions.



In times of uncertainty, such as those we are currently facing, investors turn to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen, seeking refuge from market volatility and geopolitical tensions. Consequently, a downward trajectory in the USD/JPY pair suggests a strengthening of the yen relative to the US dollar, reflecting a flight to safety among investors. This cautious optimism is tempered by apprehension regarding the potential economic fallout from geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and other external factors. The downward movement in the USD/JPY pair also has implications for inflation and economic growth prospects. A stronger yen can exert downward pressure on Japanese exports, potentially dampening economic growth and inflationary pressures. Moreover, it can impact the competitiveness of Japanese exporters in international markets, leading to a slowdown in economic activity. Conversely, a weaker US dollar may stimulate demand for US exports, bolstering economic growth but potentially fueling inflationary pressures. Currency valuations are closely linked to broader economic fundamentals, including interest rates, trade balances, and geopolitical developments. As such, movements in the USD/JPY pair are closely monitored by policymakers, central banks, and market participants alike. Changes in the exchange rate can have far-reaching implications for monetary policy decisions, trade dynamics, and financial markets' stability.

USD/JPY Jodi Ka Jaiza:


Jaisa ke pehle bhi zikar kiya gaya tha, currency pair US Dollar aur Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) ka upward trend kai trading sessions tak jari rahega. Currency pair mazid barhne ki tendency ke sath tight ranges mein move karega, jo ke yeh confirm karta hai ke currency pair aik mazboot anay wale movement ke sath mehsoos kiya ja sakta hai kisi bhi do taraf, khaaskar... Is haftay US Federal Reserve ke pasandeeda inflation reading ke baad. Is se pehle, chhuttiyan liquidity aur market performance par asar dalne jaari rahengi.

Aam tor par, economic calendar data ke mutabiq, USDJPY mid- aur high-end US data se cues le sakta hai, jo ke haftay ke aakhri mein core PCE price index ke sath shamil hai. Yaad rakhen ke yeh US Federal Reserve ka pasandeeda inflation ka paimana hai, is liye nateeja siasat ki tawaqo se mutasir hone ka imkaan hai. Is liye, mazboot inflation numbers “higher for longer” interest rate expectations ko support karne jari reh sakte hain, jo ke US dollar ke liye izafa ka sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, ek ghataak taajub ager samne aaye toh pichle interest rate cuts ke baare mein dobaara guftagu ko zinda kar sakta hai May ya June mein, jo ke US currency mein tez farokht kar sakta hai. Analysts 0.3% izafa ka intezar karte hain jo peechle 0.4% izafe ko track karega, jo ke February mein US maeeshat ke liye jaari lekin dhimi keemat ke dabe dabe dabe dabe dabe daabav ko darust karta hai.

Kya US dollar ki keemat ane wale dinon mein apni izafa jari rakhegi?

Continued US dollar ki taqat yeh yaqeeni banaye rakhna hai ke dunia ke aham tajziya karne walon mein se aik sab se buland peshgoi karne wala forecaster apni mukhalif rai hai ke US dollar 2024 mein behtar performance karega. Dollar G10 ke liye behtareen currency hai 2024 ke mukhtalif quarters mein aur yeh taqat barkarar reh sakti hai, Valentine ke mutabiq. Marinov, Forex analyst Credit Agricole mein. Unhone kaha: “US dollar ki keemat G10 ke tamam foreign currency peers ke mukable mein 2024 ke doosre quarter mein sab se zyada behtar performance karne ke raste par hai, US dollar ke liye 2024 ke liye mukhalif tawaqo'ati rai (lekin hamari rai nahi).”

Credit Agricole Bloomberg Forex Outlook Rankings ke mutabiq euro/dollar rate ke liye number one forecaster tha (76 mein se) 2023 ke chauthay quarter ke liye. Yeh number six tha (68 mein se) pound/dollar rate ke liye usi doraan. US dollar ki continued taqat ki umeedain Fed ke March ki siasat update ke baad se milti hain, jisme policymakers ne Fed ke policy rate path ke mutabiq tawajjo ko halka kar diya. US dollar meeting ke baad becha gaya, jabke investors ne ek tarah se "pessimistic" rukh apnaaya Fed ke balanced guidance ke mutaliq.

Magar Credit Agricole ka khayal hai ke market shayad dobara ghalat ho gaya ho, chunanche woh saal ke shuru mein US Federal Reserve ke ghalat faisle ki taraf shuru hua, 2024 ke liye mazeed US interest rate cuts par tawaqo'at rakhte hue (jitna ke 150 basis points tak). December mein, US Federal Reserve ne teen cuts ki umeed rakhi thi, jo market baad mein qubool kar gaya.

“US dollar ka March FOMC meeting par taajub anay wala reaction yeh darust karne ka imkaan hai ke kuch currency market participants dobara doosri dafa lagbhag wahi wajahon ke liye ghalat ho jaayenge,” analyst tanbih deta hai.

Usne yeh bhi kaha ke US Federal Reserve ko kisi bhi tarah se pesimistic nahi samjha jana chahiye, teen wajahon ko zikar karte hue:

(1) Naya dotted chart sirf ek member kam tha taake 2024 ka average sirf do interest rate cuts par jaye. (2) 2025 aur 2026 ke averages ko 25 basis points se ooncha kiya gaya. (3) US GDP forecasts ko forecast horizon ke har taraf se buland kiya gaya hai.

USD/JPY H4 Time Frame:

Agar din ka balance 151.70 ko torh nahi pata, to main is ke liye aik u-turn ka tasawwur karoonga aur pair ki taraf se girawat ka tajziya karonga jis mein support H1 150.40 ki taraf jaega, aik breakout mumkin hai, lekin humayn yaqeenan u-turn nahi milay ga, humein 150.15 ko torhna hoga, phir woh isay u-turn kar sakta hai, warna support H1 150.40 ya mushkil darja 150.15 se izafa jaari reh sakta hai 153.10 ki taraf, aur darmiyani muddat ki bunyadi maqsad 156.25. Agar aik rollback ke doran woh din ka balance 151.70 ko torh sakte hain, to main mazeed izafa 152.05 ki taraf tasawwur karoonga, wahan se pair 151.05 ki taraf u-turn kar sakta hai aur phir isay 153.10 ki taraf le jayega, jahan main bara octate ke saath izafa ko bardasht nahi karta hoon jisme darmiyani muddat ki maqsad 156.25 shaamil hai.

USD/JPY H1 Time Frame:

Main yaad nahi karta ke maine kya kaha ke hal hi mein Japanese Ministry of Finance se rasmi bayan aaya tha jisme kaha gaya tha ke lafzi muawizay ka aghaz (meri raye ke mutabiq jald hi mazeed is tarah ke amal hone wale hain): "Maujooda yen ke kamzori bunyadi indicators ke mutabiq nahi hai aur wazahat se pata chalta hai ke yeh mufaasal taur par tajassus ki wajah se hai. Hum behad sakhti se zyada raqbat ke khilaaf munasib intazaamat lenge, kisi bhi options ko khaarij na karte hue." Yeh yeh matla hai ke agar yen mazeed kamzor hota hai to currency intervention shuru ho jayega. Aur yeh kamzor hoga, kyunki maaliyat ke duniyadari ke darinday yen ko bechenge, yaani is pair ke liye keemat ko zyada se zyada drive karenge. Yeh wazeh hai ke yeh lamba waqt tak nahi chalega (pehli dafa Japanese 700 points ke nuqsan utha rahay thay, mujhe lagta hai is dafa yeh kam hoga). Chhote, main apni akhri rupayon ko is instrument par farokht ke liye koshish karunga.

Main aaj apne capital ko USDJPY trading mein invest karne ke baare mein soch raha hoon. Yeh ek currency pair hai jo market mein kafi popular hai aur log ismein paisa kamane ke liye strategies use karte hain. Main yeh consider kar raha hoon ki mujhe USDJPY mein trading karke apne paisay badhane ka mauka mil sakta hai. Yeh currency pair ka daam 151.424 par hai aur maine decide kiya hai ki agar hum 151.328 ke upar trading kar rahe hain to main aur buy orders open karunga.
Ab tak jo bhi seller ne is pair ko neeche le jane ki koshish ki hai wo asafal rahi hai. Isiliye maine decide kiya hai ki main buy orders ko extend karunga tak hum 151.328 ke upar trade kar rahe hain. Haalanki, agar daam 151.328 pe ghat jata hai to mujhe nuksan uthana pad sakta hai aur main trading chhod sakta hoon. Lekin mujhe lagta hai ki bulls mein abhi bhi potential hai aur main naye efforts ke liye wait kar raha hoon. Short trading ke liye mujhe koi dilchaspi nahi hai, lekin nazariyat mein, 150.647 ke level par short positions ke liye achha target ho sakta hai. Shayad main is vikalp par soch sakta hoon, lekin abhi nahi.

Adrenaline wo cheez hai jo un logon ke liye kafi faydemand hai jo lambay samay se stagnant feel kar rahe hote hain. Yeh unhe motivate karta hai aur trading mein naye opportunities ke liye tayyar rakhta hai.

Kal, jab currencies ke general background mein udharan badh rahe the, tab yeh pair gir gaya aur ant mein sabke saath move kiya. Yeh ek aam scene tha market mein aur main yeh dekh raha hoon ki ab hum kahan hain. Maine dekha ki pehli retracement zone 1/4, 150.80-69 tak gaya aur ab tak wahan ruka hua hai. Margin technique ke anusaar, yeh ek kharidari ke liye thik jagah hai. Lekin kya aaj yeh opportunities dega?

Asia-Pacific kshetra mein poori daily average course ko guzarte hue, yeh pair kal ke lowest point ko update kar raha hai. Jab tak daily aur weekly pivots, jo 151.40 ke neeche hain, rehte hain, tab southern correction intraday mein shakti mein hai, lekin woh poori ho gayi hai. Yahan har koi yeh decide kar raha hai ki kya 1/4 zone se kharidari karne ka faisla karna sahi hoga ya nahi. Kiske paas kitne signals hain? Pivot yeh sujhata hai ki aaj uttar mein seemayein 151.70 par hain. Iska vikas tabhi confirm hoga jab isse upar jayega. Maine minus ATP ke sath, aur couple dekhna band kar diya hai. Yeh iska matlab nahi hai ki yeh kaam nahi karega. Mujhe lag raha hai ki lagbhag 151.70 tak vikas dekhne ko mil sakta hai, lekin aage ke bare mein abhi nahi pata.

Toh aaj ke liye maine decide kiya hai ki main USDJPY trading mein apne buy orders ko extend karunga tak hum jo hain us level tak pahuch sake. Yeh ek volatile market hai aur darshak najar rakhte hain ki kish tarah ki movements hoti hain. Main yeh dekhna chahta hoon ki kya main apne paisay ko is pair mein laga kar profit nikal sakta hoon ya nahi. Aage ke developments ka intezaar rahega aur mujhe hope hai ki meri investment safal hogi.

USD/JPY H4 TAAKEK.
Is shahray mein sirf khareedari ka volume tha. Phir maine yeh samjha ke jodi 153.377 tak pohanch jaye gi, yani, yeh ke jodi pichli bulandiyon ke qareeb kaarobaar kar rahi thi, khareeddaar poora volume hasool kar rahe the. Main yeh bhi nahin soch sakta tha ke yeh khareedari ke stops nikalaye jayenge, ke jodi 150.889 tak pohanch jaye gi. Main samajhta hoon ke yeh neechay ka harkat sirf khareeddaar ke stops ko hata diya gaya tha; kuch unka anjam diya gaya aur ulat gaya. Aur main yeh samajhta hoon ke yeh aage ki barhne ka aghaaz hai, ke jodi ooper jayegi. Abhi, abhi, main sirf aik jodi ko bech raha hoon, sirf aik technical wapas ke saath. Bass, ek dafa pehle itihas mein aik mukhtalif situation thi: jab jodi 5 minute ka chart par karobaar kar rahi thi, bayrozgaar data nikla. Yeh oopar gaya, phir palat gaya aur phir yeh lag raha tha ke yeh barhne ka aghaaz ho raha hai, lekin is se pehle bechne wale ka volume tha. Yeh lagta hai ke bechne wale ke stops pehle nikal gaye the ke mazeed girawat ke pehle. Is ke ilawa, pound dollar bhi barh rahi hai, yani, dollar gir raha hai. Kuch kisam ki kamii ho sakti hai




Aaj ke harkat ke dyaan mein rakhte hue, USDJPY currency pair ka tajziya karte hue lagta hai ke yeh aur nichay tak girne ke liye mutarif hai, taqreeban 150.60 tak. Ye tashkeel ko H1 timeframe par aik bearish engulfing candlestick pattern ke zariye samarh raha hai, jo ke USDJPY ko bechne ka taqatwar signal deta hai. Is ke ilawa, relative strength index (RSI) 14 indicator ka jaiza bhi yeh darust karta hai ke 150.85 ke aas paas USDJPY ke daam pehle hi oversold hisse mein hain, jo ke 151.00 ki taraf aik taqreeban siddhi ki taraf islah ka iqsam dikhata hai. Is ke ilawa, SNR method ke mutabiq bhi USDJPY ne 150.85 par RBS ke daam ko chhua hai, jo ke aik 10-50 pips ki barhne ki sambhavna ka izhar karta hai. Halaanki, ehmiyat hai ke jabke USDJPY 150.04 ke aas paas barhne ka imkan hai, wahi woh 150.60 ki taraf apni girawat ko jari rakhne ka imkan bhi hai aaj. Is liye, karobarion ko bazari surat-e-haal ko muntazir karne ke liye hawas se dekhna chahiye aur USDJPY jodi mein aghaz hone wale istirahat ke fluctuation ko samajhne ke liye risk management strategies ko amal mein laana chahiye.

Pichle haftay, kisi ke kehne pe, flat tha. North ki taraqqi nahi hui, maximum 150.88 ko update nahi kiya gaya, balkay, Thursday ko north cancel ho gaya, halankeh Jumma ko koshish ki gai, lekin ye bhi nakam rahi. Intraday mein, north phir se cancel ho gaya aur trading almost American session ke low pe band hui, jo Monday ke trading ke opening pe south ki tasdeeq ka ishara hai. Amooman, south 150.05 ke level ko tasdeeq karay ga. Magar oversold hai, isliye woh upar se rolling shuru kar saktay hain, farokht karne walon ke liye sab se ahem baat 150.72 se oopar nahi jana chahiye, jahan south cancel ho jayega. Yeh behtareen hoga agar 150.35+ ke liye rolling kiya. Market ke pichle haftay mein dekha gaya keh, north ki koi tezi nahi rahi, aur is ka asal level 150.88 par hi atka raha. Hafta Thursday ko shuru hote hi north ki taraf ka rukh badal gaya aur ye trend Jumma ke din bhi continue nahi ho saka. Halankeh Jumma ko north ki taraf phir se movement dekhne ki koshish ki gayi, lekin ye bhi nakam rahi. Jab intraday trading ki baat ki gayi, to north phir se cancel ho gaya aur trading session almost American session ke low pe band hui. Ye Monday ke trading ke opening pe south ki taraf jaane ka ishara hai.



Aam tor par, market mein south 150.05 ke level ko confirm karegi. Lekin market oversold hai, isliye buyers ko upar ki taraf rolling shuru karne ka mauka mil sakta hai. Lekin un logon ke liye jo shares bechna chahte hain, sab se important baat ye hai ke 150.72 ke upar jaane se bachna chahiye, kyunki yeh point hai jahan south trend ko cancel kar diya jayega. Behtareen strategy ye hogi ke agar 150.35+ ke liye rolling kiya jaye.
Mujh se umeed hai ke aap ko mubahisa USD/JPY currency pair ke rawiya ka tajziya pasand aayega.
Aaj ke tajziye mein hum dekh rahe hain ke farokht karne walay apni positions ko behtareen tareeqay se khalis kar rahe hain. Ye ek maqami bazaar ki haalaat ki wajah se zaroori kadam hai. Magar, is izhar-e-khas ke moqay ka duration tohmat mein ghum hai, jis se hamare tajziye mein tashweesh ka aik ansa milta hai.
Jab hum bazaar ke qudrati rawabat ko tawajjo se dekhte hain, toh ye maloom hota hai ke upri silsila aakhir kar shuru ho gaya hai, jo ke jazbat mein mukhtalif mawazna ki alaamat hai. Mojooda waqt mein, bazaar ek zahir rahne wale upri rukh ka nishana hai.



Haalaanki, chand maqool tajziyat ke mutabiq, is izhar-e-khas ka daur lamba nahin hoga. Bazaar ki halat mein tabdili ke asbaab ka tawajjo ka markaz hai. Ye tajziyat, jin mein upri silsila aur mukhtalif mawazna ki alaamat shamil hain, guzishta chand hafton mein mushahida ki gayi raftar ko jari rakhti hain. Lihaza, farokht karne walay ko mahsulat ki kifayat ko nazar andaz na karne ki tawajjo deni chahiye. Woh bazaar ke tabdeel hone wale rawabat ko samajh kar, apne intikhab ko tabdeel kar sakte hain. Aakhir mein, yeh tajziya dikhata hai ke mubahisa USD/JPY currency pair ke rawiya mein tawajjo aur tajziye ki zarurat hai. Farokht karne walon ko maqami bazaar ki haalaat ko samajhna aur unke kadam sahi dhang se uthana chahiye, taake wo apni positions ko behtareen tareeqay se khalis kar sakein.

Yeh lagta hai ke aap ek maaliyati market ke manzar par guftagu kar rahe hain jahan 151.780 ke darje ka barqi tanasub hai aur traders umeed rakhte hain ke keemat sirf is ke upar nahi utray gi balkay is se guzar jayegi. Chaliye yahan mojood hawaasat ki aamal ki taraf chalte hain. 151.781 ke darja baaziat wazeh tor par ahmiyat ka hamil hai, jis ki pechida tareekhi satah hai jahan keemat ne peechle mein oopar utarne ki koshish ki hai. Traders aksar aise darjat ko tawajjo se dekhte hain, kyun ke ye market ke jazbat aur mumkinah mustaqbil ki keemat tehalikar satah par moujooda hawaasat aur mukhtalif mojooda keemat ko faraham kar sakte hain. Jab traders sirf is darje ko torne ki bajaye is se guzarne ki khwahish izhar karte hain, to woh bunyadi tor par ek muzaffar bullish breakout ki talaash mein hote hain. Ek barqi tanasub ke darje ko tor dena barqi tanasub ko qayam nahi karta; ye farzi toot par bhi ho sakta hai ya minor keemat ke fluctuation mein mumsil ho sakta hai. Mukhaalif mein, tanasub ke darja ko tor dena zyada mazboot aur mustaqil oopar ki harkat ko darust karta hai, jo ke market ke hawaasat mein ek tabdeeli ki alaamat hai aur mumkinah tor par zyada kharidaron ko bazaar mein khench sakta hai. Traders bunyadi tor par ye tasdeeq talab karte hain ke market mein kaafi taizabi aur bullish hawa hai keemat ko peechli unchiyon se guzarne ke liye dabaav banane ke liye. Magar, maaliyati market mein shak ka paisha hai isay maante hue zaroori hai.

Jab ke traders umeed karte hain ke keemat tanasub ke darje ko tor degi, trading mein koi tawaqo nahi hoti. Marketen ghair mutawaqqa hoti hain, arzi maaliyati data release se le kar saiyasi waqiyat tak mukhtalif factors ka asar hota hai. Is tarah, traders ko ehtiyaat aur khatara ka behtar tareeqa tariqay se istemal karna chahiye. Jab ke unhein market ke analisis ke buniyad par bullish bias ho sakta hai, lekin market ke hawaasat par jawabdeh aur tabdeel hone wale sharaet ka jawab dena zaroori hai. Stop-loss orders lagana aur khatara nigrani ke asoolon ko maan'na tawaqo ke mutabiq market ke khilaaf potential nuqsanat ko kam karne mein madad kar sakta hai. Aakhir mein, trading imkanat aur khatara nigrani ke baare mein hai. Jab ke traders umeed karte hain ke 151.725 ke darje ko tor kar naye unchion tak pohnch jayenge, to woh bhi munfarid keemat ki mukhalifat ke ihtimal ke liye tayar rahna chahiye. Maaliyati marketon ke pesh kharidaar hawala se makhsoos approach aur market ki taza khbaron ke bare mein maalumat rakhte hue traders maaliyati marketon ke complicated hawala se behtar tor par guzar sakte hain.

Mujhe umeed hai ke aap sab theek hain aur aaj is site ka maze utha rahe hain. Main USDJPY se pareshan hoon. H4 time frame mein Asia ke trading session mein halki izaafa dekhi gai, halanki ye halka sa movement tha lekin ye aage ki taraf chalne ki stage set kar di jisme badi tadaad mein news developments ne kirdaar ada karna shuru kiya. Jab tak trading ka din guzarta hai, market sentiment yen aur dollar se mutaliq news mein kaafi aaram hai. Phir bhi, haal ki US labor market statistics ke asaraat jari raheinge aur greenback ko mazid support faraham karenge.
USDJPY pair, economic indicators aur geopolitical events par zyada rehtay hai, jo do bade global currency ke darmiyaan taqat ka pehloo darust karte hain. H4 chart, price action ka sakht tehadar pesh karta hai aur short se medium-term trends ko pehchane mein ek ahem zariya sabet hota hai. H4 time frame mein haal ki movement ka tajziya karne se market ke dynamics ka samajh khultay hain. Asia session mein halkay faide ke bawajood, underlying momentum mazeed taraqqi karne ke liye mazid tayyar lagta hai. Ye uchaal, numaya news catalysts se bhara hai jo dollar ko yen ke khilaf madad faraham karte hain.

Is uchaal ke potential drivers ko gehrayi se samajhne ke liye, baray economic landscape ko tawajju dena zaruri hai. Aaj shayad yen aur dollar se directly mutaliq badi news events na hon, lekin haal ki labor market data ke asar bhool nahi sakte. US labor market, economic health ka aik paimana samjha jata hai, investor sentiment aur currency valuations par bohot bada asar dalta hai.

Ajeeb halaat, jese mazbot job creation ya kami hone wale unemployment rates, aam tor par US economy mein confidence ko barhate hain aur by extension dollar mein bhi. Umdah shakhsiyat ka koi bhi nishaan ya uncertainty labor market data mein to currency markets mein tarehs ho sakte hain, jisme USDJPY pair bhi shamil hai.

Isliye, chahe din kitna bhi shaant ho, market participants key economic releases ke baad ki asaar se jude rehte hain. Agay dekhte hue, traders aur analysts maamooli tor par developments ko qareeb se monitor karenge, taake USD/JPY pair ke aage ki manzar nama mein rehne wale clues dhoondh sakein. Choti muddat ke fluctuations to lagte hain, lekin fundamental drivers aur technical indicators ka comprehensive understanding knowledge wale aur informed decision making ke liye valuable insights faraham kar sakte hain.

USDJPY pair H4 time frame par haal ki news developments aur underlying market dynamics se caution optimism ko darst kar raha hai. Badi announcements ke abhi bhi na hone ke bawajood, US labor market statistics ke asar abhi tak dollar ko support faraham kar rahe hain, jo near term mein mazid momentum ko paal sakta hai.