𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

EUR/USD currency pair ne ek strong rebound show kiya hai, levels below 1.1000 se rising. After briefly testing above 1.0950, pair ne resilience aur strength demonstrate ki apni recovery mein. Yeh upward movement significant hai, kyun ke yeh pair ki ability ko underscore karta hai higher push karne ki despite ongoing market pressures. Ek critical technical indicator recent movement hai EUR/USD pair ka above 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo currently positioned hai at 1.0826. 200-day EMA ek crucial benchmark hai traders aur analysts ke liye, jo serve karta hai as a dividing line between long-term bullish aur bearish trends. Is level ko surpass karna ek strong bullish signal hai, jo suggest karta hai ke EUR/USD pair ek phase of powerful short-term upward momentum mein enter ho raha hai. 200-day EMA ke upar movement reflect karta hai ek shift in market sentiment, attracting traders eager to engage with the bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) ek essential tool hai EUR/USD pair ki momentum ko evaluate karne ke liye. Currently, RSI hover kar raha hai around 60, indicating ke pair overbought territory mein nahi hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke bullish trend abhi extend hone ka potential hai without an imminent risk of reversal. Ek RSI reading near 60 strong buying momentum ko signal karta hai, jo traders ke liye confidence instill karta hai about the continuation of the upward trend.
Volume analysis further support karta hai bullish outlook ko EUR/USD pair ke liye. Recent trading volumes rise hui hain during the upward movement, signaling strong market participation aur backing for the current trend. Higher trading volumes often precede significant price movements, lending credibility to the overall bullish trend. Yeh solid foundation of market participation bullish signals ke reliability ko enhance karta hai.
Lagta hai ke bearish correction movement aage bhi 1.0892 par RBS area ko retest karne ki koshish karegi aur phir 1.0869 tak ke agle RBS level tak pohnchne ki umeed hai. 1.0862-1.0892 ke RBS levels se bullish price action ko bullish trend ko continue karne ke liye ek achha foothold banaya ja sakta hai. Is price level range par pending buy limit orders rakhi ja sakti hain, jiska target tp1 1.0950 tak supply area ko reach karna hai aur tp2 ko is haftay ke highest price limit 1.1008 tak test karna hai. Buying plan ke liye risk loss limit ma200 (blue) movement limit ke neeche 1.0820 ke aas-paas rakha ja sakta hai. Sales plan ke liye do options hain: ek short-term cell entry jo bearish correction movement ke continuation ke sath supply area 1.0950 par bullish rejection ka intezar karega. Long-term sales plan tab consider kiya ja sakta hai jab trend bearish phase mein enter kare, jaise ke ma200 (blue) movement limit ke neeche 1.0777 tak girawat dekhne ko mile. Lekin, seller ko pehle 1.0900 ke support ko solid breakout ke sath penetrate karna hoga, warna bullish rejection is bearish scenario ko later thwart kar sakti hai. Instant sell open karna abhi risky lagta hai, kyun ke 1.0900 ke aas-paas fakeout ho sakta hai jo bullish movement ko drive kar sakta hai.

Subah ke apne forecast mein, maine 1.1157 level ko highlight kiya tha aur trading decisions usi ke mutabiq lene ka plan banaya tha. Chaliye 5-minute chart dekhte hain ke kya hua. Jab 1.1157 level par euro ka rise hua aur false breakout bana, toh yeh sell karne ka acha mauka tha, jisse kareeban 20 points ka faida hua. 1.1129 level par active buying ne ek buying opportunity di, jis se trade sideways channel mein raha. Din ke dusre hise ke liye technical picture mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui. **EUR/USD mein long positions kholne ke liye:**
Eurozone ke manufacturing activity data mein kami ko services sector ki mazboot performance ne balance kiya. Yeh baat euro ke upward potential ko kaam kar gayi, lekin koi bara sell-off nahi hua. Din ke dusre hise mein, U.S. ki kai economic statistics release hongi, jisme manufacturing PMI, services PMI, aur U.S. composite PMI August ke liye shamil hain. Sirf bohot strong data jo manufacturing activity ki recovery ko darshata ho, EUR/USD mein koi bara correction la sakta hai. Kyunke technical picture unchanged hai, main apni subah ki strategy par qayam rahunga. Sirf ek decline aur 1.1129 support level ke aas paas ek false breakout ka formation hi long positions kholne ka acha mauka dega. Iska maqsood euro ko phir se rally karwana hoga aur bullish trend ko 1.1157 ki taraf mazid mazboot karna hoga. Weak U.S. statistics ke baad is range ke upar breakout aur consolidation se 1.1188 ki taraf aur rise hoga. Aakhri target 1.1226 hoga jahan main apna profit lock karunga. Agar EUR/USD decline karta hai aur din ke dusre hise mein 1.1129 ke aas paas koi activity nahi hoti (yeh level pehle se test ho chuka hai), toh sellers ke paas ek bari correction ka chance hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1102 ke next support level ke aas paas false breakout banne ke baad long positions consider karunga

EUR/USD pair ne Monday ko aik nayi upward movement dikhayi. Yeh kehne ki zaroorat nahi ke euro ke mazeed barhne ki koi waja nahi thi. Din bhar koi secondary reports release nahi hui, aur na hi koi noteworthy speeches hui. Haan, kuch Federal Reserve ke representatives ne U.S. mein interviews diye, lekin woh bhi pichle teen hafton se lagbhag wahi baat keh rahe hain ke central bank September mein key rate ko kam karne par ghore kar sakta hai. Is liye, agar monetary policy mein easing ke naye bayanat se dollar ki girawat hui, toh market sirf kisi formal factor ka sahara le kar dollar ko sell kar raha hai, jaise pehle bhi hota raha hai. Aur agar aisa nahi hai, toh market bina kisi waja ke U.S. currency ko sell kar raha hai.
Technical nazar se dekha jaye toh upward trend abhi bhi valid hai, aur euro indefinitely barh sakta hai. Market ka sentiment clear hai - is waqt usay buy karne ke liye kisi waja ki zaroorat nahi hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Friday ko speech dene wale hain, aur yeh baat to tay hai ke market unki speech mein dovish hints dhoondhne ki koshish karega taake dollar ko sell kiya ja sake.

Monday ko 5-minute time frame par teen trading signals form hue. Shuru mein price ne 1.1043 level ke aas paas do sell signals generate kiye, jo din ke akhir tak 1.1048 level mein tabdeel ho gaye aur phir usay surpass kar diya. Short position se profit nahi mila kyun ke market ne pair ko thoda downward correct karne mein kamiyabi hasil nahi ki. Lekin long position profitable rahi, aur price shaam tak nearest target 1.1091 tak pohanch gayi.

**Trading Tips on Tuesday:**

EUR/USD ne aik nayi upward trend form ki hai jo ke hourly time frame mein trend line se supported hai. Hum samajhte hain ke euro ne sab bullish factors ko fully factor kar liya hai, is liye hum mazeed upward movement ki umeed nahi rakhte. Magar, market phir bhi yeh dikhata hai ke woh kisi bhi report par panic selling karke dollar ko react karne ke liye tayar hai. Aur agar koi events nahi hote, toh market dollar ko sell karne ke liye tayar hai. Is liye, expectations apni jagah, lekin current technical picture ko nazar andaz nahi karna chahiye. Price ke trendline ke neechay consolidate hone ke baad pair mein girawat dekhi ja sakti hai.

Tuesday ko, naye traders price ke trendline ke neechay consolidate hone par girawat ki umeed kar sakte hain. Is case mein, euro 1.0888 tak gir sakta hai. Warna, pair mazeed barh kar 1.1132 tak ja sakti hai

Subah ke apne forecast mein, maine 1.1157 level ko highlight kiya tha aur trading decisions usi ke mutabiq lene ka plan banaya tha. Chaliye 5-minute chart dekhte hain ke kya hua. Jab 1.1157 level par euro ka rise hua aur false breakout bana, toh yeh sell karne ka acha mauka tha, jisse kareeban 20 points ka faida hua. 1.1129 level par active buying ne ek buying opportunity di, jis se trade sideways channel mein raha. Din ke dusre hise ke liye technical picture mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui.
**EUR/USD mein long positions kholne ke liye:**
Eurozone ke manufacturing activity data mein kami ko services sector ki mazboot performance ne balance kiya. Yeh baat euro ke upward potential ko kaam kar gayi, lekin koi bara sell-off nahi hua. Din ke dusre hise mein, U.S. ki kai economic statistics release hongi, jisme manufacturing PMI, services PMI, aur U.S. composite PMI August ke liye shamil hain. Sirf bohot strong data jo manufacturing activity ki recovery ko darshata ho, EUR/USD mein koi bara correction la sakta hai. Kyunke technical picture unchanged hai, main apni subah ki strategy par qayam rahunga. Sirf ek decline aur 1.1129 support level ke aas paas ek false breakout ka formation hi long positions kholne ka acha mauka dega. Iska maqsood euro ko phir se rally karwana hoga aur bullish trend ko 1.1157 ki taraf mazid mazboot karna hoga. Weak U.S. statistics ke baad is range ke upar breakout aur consolidation se 1.1188 ki taraf aur rise hoga. Aakhri target 1.1226 hoga jahan main apna profit lock karunga. Agar EUR/USD decline karta hai aur din ke dusre hise mein 1.1129 ke aas paas koi activity nahi hoti (yeh level pehle se test ho chuka hai), toh sellers ke paas ek bari correction ka chance hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1102 ke next support level ke aas paas false breakout banne ke baad long positions consider karunga

Jumay ke din

Jumay ko trading session ke aakhir mein spot price mein 0.20% ki halka si girawat dekhi gayi, jis ne pichlay do hafton ke doran apne nuqsan ko lagbhag 0.12% tak barhaya. Jab sarmaayadar Federal Reserve ke aanay wale rate faisle ke liye tayaari kar rahe hain aur European inflation ke key updates ka intezar kar rahe hain, toh currency pair mein abhi bhi volatility nazar aa rahi hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD lagbhag 1.1120 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Pair ko kuch support mila jab yeh takreeban 1.1140 tak rebound hua, is ke peechay July ke liye mixed preliminary S&P Global PMI report ka haath tha. Composite PMI 55.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke pehle ke 54.8 se zyada tha, aur yeh service sector mein mazboot growth ke wajah se hua. Service PMI bhi unexpected tor par 56.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke mutawaqqa 54.4 aur pehle ke 55.3 se behtar tha. Lekin, Manufacturing PMI gir kar 49.5 par aa gaya, jo ke anticipated 51.7 se neeche tha, aur yeh manufacturing activities mein contraction ko signal kar raha tha.

Aage dekhte hue, agar inflation pressures mutawaqqa ke mutabiq kam hotay hain, toh Federal Reserve ke rate cuts ki tawaqo barh sakti hai. Warna, agar inflation ziddi tor par zyada rehta hai, toh rate-cut ki tawaqoat kamzor par sakti hain. CME FedWatch tool abhi yeh indicate kar raha hai ke central bank apne September meeting mein key borrowing rates ko kam karna shuru karne ka imkaan hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jabke pair ne apne July-August rally ke 50% Fibonacci retracement ke upar strength dikhayi hai, ehtiyaat ki zarurat hai. Daily chart ke oscillators bearish signals dikhana shuru kar rahe hain, jo ke currency pair ke liye ek potential downward trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Mid-1.1177 ke chaar mahine ke high se pullback ko mazboot karne ke liye, pair ko 100-day Simple Moving Average ke neeche break karna hoga.





Agar pair mazeed girta hai, toh yeh round-number supports 1.1100 aur 1.1050 ke qareeb test kar sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, 1.1180 level Euro bulls ke liye ek significant barrier bana hua hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wapas 40.00-60.00 range mein aagayi hai, jo ke is baat ki nishani hai ke bullish momentum ab kamzor ho chuka hai.

EUR/USD mein izafa, US Dollar ki girawat ke saath; sab ki nazar Fed Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium ki takreer par

EUR/USD mein halka sa izafa dekha gaya hai jab US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat gir gayi hai, kyun ke traders ne apni tawajjo Jackson Hole Symposium mein Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki takreer par markoza kar li hai. Sarmaayakaar September aur saal ke baqi hisse ke liye nayi interest-rate guidance ka intezar kar rahe hain. ECB se yeh umeed ki ja rahi hai ke woh September mein dobara se interest rates ko cut karega.

EUR/USD Friday ki European session mein lagbhag 1.1120 par recover karta hai, jab Thursday ko 1.1174 ke nayi saal ke azeem tareen level se correct hota hai. Yeh major currency pair halka sa izafa dekhta hai, jab USD mein ek din pehle ke decent recovery move ke baad ab girawat shuru ho gayi hai, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Chair Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein takreer se pehle ehtiyat ke sabab.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chay bari currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb gir gaya hai jab Thursday ko 101.00 ke saath mahsoos shuda saat mahine se zyada ke low se recover hokar lagbhag 101.60 par pohanch gaya tha. US Dollar mazbooti se wapas aaya tha jab August ke liye flash US S&P Global PMI report ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI mutawaqqa se behtar 54.1 par aaya. Kul mila kar, report ne dikhaya ke business activity mein izafa services sector ke zabardast expansion ki wajah se hua, jab ke economy ke manufacturing hisse mein mutawaqqa se tez contraction dekhne ko mili.

JH Symposium mein apni takreer ke dauran – jo ke 14:00 GMT par mutawaqqa hai – Jerome Powell se intezaar kiya ja raha hai ke woh interest rates aur United States (US) ke iqtisadi outlook par cues denge. Market ke participants dilchaspi se yeh janna chahte hain ke September meeting mein interest rate cuts ka size kya hoga, is ko madde nazar rakhte hue ke "aksariyat" officials ne kaha ke "agar data mutawaqqa ke mutabiq aata raha, toh aglay meeting mein policy ko aasan banana munasib hoga," jaisa ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July 30-31 ke policy meeting minutes se maloom hota hai.

Investors yeh bhi soch rahe hain ke kya US economy "soft landing" hasil kar payegi, jab ke price pressures 2% ki desired rate par wapas aa rahe hain. US recession ke imkaanat se khauf barh gaya jab July ke Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report ne labor demand mein tezi se slow down aur Unemployment Rate mein izafa 4.3% tak dikhaya, jo November 2021 ke baad se sabse zyada level hai.

Tajziya karne walon ki umeed nahi hai ke Jerome Powell ek preset interest rate path provide karenge. Lekin, woh September mein rate cuts ko munasib keh sakte hain, kyun ke risk ab dual mandate (inflation aur employment) ke dono aspects par barh gaye hain.

EUR/USD 1.1100 ke round-level support ke upar qaim hai, aur investors Fed Powell ki JH Symposium ki takreer par tawajjo de rahe hain. Daily time frame par channel formation ke breakout ke baad shared currency pair ka outlook mazeed behtar raha hai. Tamam short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) upar ki taraf ja rahe hain, jo ke ek strong uptrend ko zahir karte hain.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, overbought levels ko touch kar raha hai lekin abhi bhi strong upside momentum ka ishara deta hai.




Agar December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 ke upar ek decisive break hota hai, toh Euro bulls round-level resistance 1.1200 ko dobara hasil karne ka maqsad rakh sakte hain. Neeche ki taraf, 1.1100 ka round-level figure ek aham support zone ke taur par kaam karta hai.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis aur Forecast

Abhi tak market ne thori bahut neechay ki taraf pressure lagane ki taqat hasil kar li hai, lekin yeh itna zyada mazboot nahi hai jisse ke price neechay gir kar 1.1098 ke level tak correct ho gayi hai. Is haftay price mein izafa kaafi zyada dekha gaya hai. EUR/USD currency pair ki condition wazeh tor par abhi bhi thodi si downward correction ki taraf move kar rahi hai, lekin aakhri chand dino mein kharidaaron ki fauj ka ghalba abhi bhi nazar aa raha hai. Market ki graph se ye bhi nazar aata hai ke candlestick aista aista wapas upar ki taraf move karne ki koshish kar raha hai, 60-period Moving Average indicator (jo ke peelay rang ka hai) se door hota ja raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke bechne walon ka pressure itna zyada nahi hai. Agar baad mein koi bullish movement aati hai jo 1.1190 ke level tak pohanchne mein kamyab ho jati hai, toh is baat ka imkaan hai ke price mazeed upar ki taraf move karegi aur shayad ek mazeed bullish rally bhi shuru ho sakti hai.




Market ke halat ki tasveer se, yaqeenan yeh aane wali trading position ke liye ek reference hogi, jahan price ka imkaan hai ke wapas upar ki taraf move karegi, chahe EUR/USD currency pair chhote time frame mein abhi bhi correction ka samna kar raha ho. Agar Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ki Lime Line se monitor kiya jaye, toh yeh mustaqil tor par level 70 ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo ke is baat ka aaghaz hai ke market ki soorat-e-haal abhi bhi kharidaaron ki fauj ke qabze mein hai. Jo tajziya kiya gaya hai, uske mutabiq abhi bhi is baat ka imkaan hai ke price upar ki taraf move karegi; kharidaaron ki fauj ki kamzor volatility ki push ki wajah se umeed hai ke price apne se upar ke level tak pahunch jayegi. Iss liye, aane wale waqt mein wapas se ek upward trend situation ki taraf lotne ka imkaan hai jahan target shayad 1.1145 ke aas paas ke bullish path ki taraf move kare.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis aur Forecast

H4 TF ke upar diye gaye reference ke mutabiq, ek bullish movement chal rahi hai jo MA 50 (surkh) movement limit ke control mein hai. Abhi jo izafa ho raha hai woh RSI 70 ke overbought area ke upar chala gaya hai aur MA 50 movement limit se kafi door ho gaya hai. Yeh mazeed bullish koshishon ke liye rukaawat ho sakta hai, jis se ek limited bearish correction phase ke liye neechay ki taraf move ho sakta hai. Misal ke tor par, agar ek bearish correction phase hota hai, toh neeche ka target sab se qareeb chhupi hui demand area ko test karna ho sakta hai jo ke 1.1088 ke range mein hai, ya phir neeche 1.1048 ke range mein RBS area tak pohanchne ki koshish kar sakta hai. Buying transactions par focus lagataar dekha ja raha hai jab tak price MA50 (surkh) movement limit ke neeche support area mein 1.0950 ke range tak nahi girti. Chhote arse ke liye, bearish correction movement ke sath bechne par bhi socha ja sakta hai taake 1.1120-1.1130 ke range se sell position mein enter kiya ja sake aur pehle TP ke range 1.1090 mein target kiya ja sake aur phir TP 2 ke liye 1.1050 ke range tak continue kiya ja sake. Sell plan mein is haftay ke high area ke upar risk limit 1.1150 ke range mein rakha ja sakta hai. Best re-entry buy area 1.1050-1.1080 ke range se consider kiya ja sakta hai. Price level ke range se izafa ka target is haftay ke highest price limit 1.1130 tak pohanchna ho sakta hai aur lambi muddat ke liye ek purchase option base up rally movement ko plan kiya ja sakta hai taake pichlay saal ke highest price limit 1.1270 ke range tak pohanch sake.





TF Daily reference ke mutabiq, abhi ki izafa ki soorat-e-haal overbought area mein dakhil ho chuki hai RSI 70 ke upar movement ke sath. Khareedaar dobara se market par haavi nazar aa rahe hain pichle haftay ke market session ke aakhir se aur is haftay ke pehle do dino ke session mein bhi yeh continuity dekhi gayi hai. Bullish trend ke direction ko follow karne ke liye behtar hoga ke pehle price ke neeche girne ke imkaan par zyada tawajjo di jaye aur ek correction phase ka intezar kiya jaye, khaas taur par neeche ke RBS area ko 1.1049 ke range mein pohanchne tak. Misal ke tor par, agar koi zyada valid bearish price action hota hai, toh lambi muddat ke bearish correction phase ke imkaan par bechne par ghor karna dilchaspi ka baais ho sakta hai kyunke abhi ka izafa niche 3 MA movement limit se kafi door ho chuka hai. Bullish continuation area lagta hai ke price ke neeche base demand ko test karne ke baad hoga jo ke 1.1015 ke range mein hai ya agle demand area ko pohanchne ke liye 1.0920 ke range mein. Agle market driver ka imkaan lagta hai ke FOMC meeting ke natijon par ya phir Thursday ko Eurozone economy ke liye high impact news ke release par munhasir hoga.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis aur Forecast

Thursday ko eurusd ne izafa karte hue aakhirkar ek baar phir se girawat dekhi gayi. Eurusd ne girawat shuru ki jab candle ne 1.1172 ke area ko touch kiya, jo supply area tha. Kyunke candle supply area ko paar nahi kar saki, yeh wajah ho sakti hai ke eurusd apne izafay ko jari nahi rakh saki. Iss waqt, eurusd ka position 1.1116 ke price par trade ho raha hai. Agar hisaab lagaya jaye, toh eurusd taqriban 65 pips gir chuki hai. Iss waqt, candle ka position abhi bhi demand area mein phansa hua hai jo 1.1101 ke price par hai.

Agar H1 timeframe se analysis kiya jaye, toh eurusd apni girawat ko aur gehra karegi agar H1 support 1.1116 ke price par tor diya jaye. Masla yeh hai ke abhi tak yeh area break nahi hua hai. Jab tak support nahi torha jata, mumkin hai ke eurusd dobara se upar ja sake. Mere khayal mein, kal jo girawat hui thi woh sirf ek correction thi. Correction puri hone ke baad, eurusd apna izafa jari rakhegi. Masla yeh hai ke upar ke area mein abhi bhi ek supply hai jo touch nahi hui, jo ke 1.1255 ke price par hai. Eurusd ka agla target usi area mein hai.

Agar ichimoku indicator ki madad se analysis kiya jaye, toh jab se eurusd ne girawat shuru ki, candle ka position jo pehle line ke upar tha ab tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke neeche hai. Yeh intersection abhi abhi hua hai jo eurusd ko aur zyada neeche le ja sakta hai. Lekin, abhi jo rukawat hai, woh yeh hai ke candle abhi tak demand area ko 1.1116 ke price par paar nahi kar saki. Misal ke tor par, agar yeh wahan se guzarti hai, toh mujhe yaqeen hai ke girawat bohat asaan ho jayegi.

Iske ilawa, stochastic indicator yeh dikhata hai ke eurusd abhi oversold condition mein hai. Yeh tab hua jab kal eurusd ko ek kaafi badi girawat dekhni pari jis se uski line level 20 tak pohanch gayi. Line ki direction bhi iss waqt upar ki taraf hai, jo iska matlab hai ke stochastic indicator eurusd ko dobara upar jaane mein support kar raha hai.




Aaj ke analysis ka natija yeh hai ke eurusd currency pair ke paas abhi bhi izafay ka mauka hai, chahe ichimoku indicator ki lines intersect kar chuki hain. Yeh izafa isliye mumkin lagta hai kyunke candle abhi tak demand area ko 1.1101 ke price par paar nahi kar saki. Iss liye, jab tak demand area break nahi hota, mein yeh mashwara deta hoon ke aap buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target resistance 1.1167 ke price par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss support 1.1090 ke price par rakh sakte hain.

Euro ne Thursday ki trading session ke shuruati ghanton mein kaafi utar-chadhaav dekhe, jo ke market ke direction mein sangharsh ko zahir karte hain. Yeh lagta hai ke currency 1.11 level ki taraf wapas aanay ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh level ke neeche gir jati hai, toh hum 1.10 mark tak ek aur girawat dekh sakte hain. Samoohan taur par, market ek aisi chauraha par lagti hai jahan yeh andaza laga rahi hai ki kya us mein apna upward trajectory jaari rakhne ke liye kafi momentum hai. Agar euro 1.1175 level ke upar break karne mein kamyab ho jata hai, toh yeh 1.1250 tak rally ki raah samet sakta hai.

Is harkat ka bohot zyada inhisar Federal Reserve ke qadam par hai, khaas tor par rate cuts ke hawalay se. Jab ke Fed se September mein rate cuts ki tawakku ki ja rahi hai, lekin iske tehqeeq ka darja abhi bhi gair yakeeni hai. Market ne shayad abhi tak aggressive rate cut ke imkaan ko poori tarah se factor nahi kiya, jo ke aalami maeshat ke hawalay se tashweesh ka izhaar kar sakta hai. Aise halat mein, US dollar aam tor par faida uthata hai kyunke sarmayekar aam tor par maashi gair yakeeni ke dauraan US Treasury bond markets ki aman ke talash mein hotay hain.

Taqniqi nazariye se dekha jaye, toh yeh note karna zaroori hai ke Euro abhi bhi Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke mutabiq ek overbought state mein hai. Iske ilawa, RSI aur price action ke darmiyan kuch divergence bhi hai, jo ke yeh zahir karta hai ke pullback aasakta hai. Yeh divergence aksar ek warning sign hoti hai ke mojuwda trend apni taqat kho raha hai.





Mukhtasar mein, jab ke euro ne mazbooti dikhayi hai, iska mustaqbil technical factors aur Federal Reserve ke faislon par munhasir hoga. Tajir ko chahiye ke wo aham support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhein aur kisi bhi divergence ke isharon ko dekhte hue market ki mumkin volatility se bachein.

EUR/USD currency pair Thursday ki subah European session mein 1.1159 ke aas paas thori si harakat ke sath trade kar raha hai. Yeh stability Greenback mein haaliya girawat ke bawajood hai, kyunke traders aham American maashi data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Khaas tor par, doosray quarter (Q2) ke liye pehlay se tiyaar ki gayi Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report aaj baad mein jari ki jayegi. Tawakku hai ke annual growth rate 2.0% hogi, jo ke pehle quarter ke 1.4% se zyada hai. Iss waqt, EUR/USD 1.1151 ke aas paas position mein hai, aur sab ki nazar 1.1200 ke psychological mark par hai.

EUR/USD ke Bunyadi Asaas:

Euro ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki Eurozone ke maashi mustaqbil par pessimistic nazariye ki wajah se rukawat ka saamna hai. ECB ke haali bayanaat se yeh zahir hota hai ke mehngai mein kami ka silsila jaari reh sakta hai, jisse September mein rate cut ki gunjaish khuli reh jaati hai. Dusri taraf, US Dollar (USD) mein mazbooti aayi hai, jo 11 July ke baad se apne buland tareen satah par pohanch gaya hai, yeh US Treasury bond yields ke izafay ki wajah se hua. Yeh izafa, risk-averse market sentiment ke sath mil kar, Greenback ki safe-haven appeal ko mazboot karta hai aur EUR/USD pair par neeche ki taraf dabao dalta hai.

Market sentiment par mazeed bojh Donald Trump ke aane wale November ke US presidential election mein mumkin jeet ki wajah se bhi hai. Iske ilawa, sarmayakaron ki tawajjo June ke Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data par hai, jo maali bazaron mein mazeed gawarniyat ka sababab ban sakta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Yeh pair apne ascending channel ki upper boundary ke aas paas, 1.1250 level par, aham muzahimaat ka saamna kar sakta hai. Is muzahimaat ke upar break is pair ko 1.1200 region ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, jo throwback resistance level ke taur par kaam kar sakta hai.



Niche ki taraf, pair ko apne descending channel ke lower edge ke aas paas 1.1090 par support mil sakta hai, aur 1.1000 ka key psychological level bhi nazar mein hai. Is support ke neeche girne se pair ko ek dafa phir se recent low 1.0947 ka test karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

EUR/USD ka jorha haal hi mein saal ke naye oonchay silsile par pahuncha hai, jo ke US Dollar ki bharpur bechne ki wajah se hua. Yeh izafa is liye hai kyunke bazar ke hisse-daar Federal Reserve se September mein interest rate kam hone ki umeed rakhte hain, aur bohot se log central bank se hawkish isharaat ki bhi umeed kar rahe hain. US Dollar ki kamzori ne Euro ko zyada aakarshak banaya hai, jo EUR/USD ke upar chadhne mein madadgar sabit ho raha hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY) mein lagataar kamzori dekhne ko mili hai, jo 0.20% gir kar 101.10 ke aas-paas aa gaya hai. Yeh girawat Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko jald hi dheela karne ke badhe ke mutawaqqi se hai. Investers ab rate cut ke liye tayar ho rahe hain, jiski wajah se Dollar ka bechna aur EUR/USD jorha ka barhna dekhne ko mil raha hai.

Bazaar ki nazar mein Jackson Hole Symposium bhi hai jo is hafte ke aakhir mein hone wala hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka is symposium mein taqreer intezar ke laayak hai, kyunki yeh Fed ke policy direction par zyada roshni daal sakti hai. Bazar US PMI figures ke release ka bhi intezar kar raha hai, jo economic health ke ahem indicators hain aur Fed ke faislon ko bhi asar daal sakti hain.

Technically, EUR/USD jorha ne aham resistance levels ko tor diya hai, jo bullish jazbaat ko mazid barhawa deta hai. Agar yeh jorha barhta raha to yeh 1.1150 ya usse upar ke levels ko target kar sakta hai. Magar aane wale data aur Powell ki taqreer market mein volatility laa sakti hai, khaaskar agar Fed ka tone umeed se zyada hawkish hua. Agar data surprising positive raha, to Euro ke izafay ko nuksan ho sakta hai, jahan agla support level 1.1050 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.





EUR/USD ke oonchay silsile Dollar ki kamzori, September mein rate cut ke ummeed, aur Jackson Hole Symposium aur US PMI figures ke intezar ka natija hain. Bazar ehtiyaat se optimistic hai, lekin aane wale events jorha ke agle qadam ka faisla karne mein ahem honge.

USD ka jorha haal hi mein saal ke naye oonchay silsile par pahuncha hai, jo ke US Dollar ki bharpur bechne ki wajah se hua. Yeh izafa is liye hai kyunke bazar ke hisse-daar Federal Reserve se September mein interest rate kam hone ki umeed rakhte hain, aur bohot se log central bank se hawkish isharaat ki bhi umeed kar rahe hain. US Dollar ki kamzori ne Euro ko zyada aakarshak banaya hai, jo EUR/USD ke upar chadhne mein madadgar sabit ho raha hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY) mein lagataar kamzori dekhne ko mili hai, jo 0.20% gir kar 101.10 ke aas-paas aa gaya hai. Yeh girawat Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko jald hi dheela karne ke badhe ke mutawaqqi se hai. Investers ab rate cut ke liye tayar ho rahe hain, jiski wajah se Dollar ka bechna aur EUR/USD jorha ka barhna dekhne ko mil raha hai.

Bazaar ki nazar mein Jackson Hole Symposium bhi hai jo is hafte ke aakhir mein hone wala hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka is symposium mein taqreer intezar ke laayak hai, kyunki yeh Fed ke policy direction par zyada roshni daal sakti hai. Bazar US PMI figures ke release ka bhi intezar kar raha hai, jo economic health ke ahem indicators hain aur Fed ke faislon ko bhi asar daal sakti hain.

Technically, EUR/USD jorha ne aham resistance levels ko tor diya hai, jo bullish jazbaat ko mazid barhawa deta hai. Agar yeh jorha barhta raha to yeh 1.1150 ya usse upar ke levels ko target kar sakta hai. Magar aane wale data aur Powell ki taqreer market mein volatility laa sakti hai, khaaskar agar Fed ka tone umeed se zyada hawkish hua. Agar data surprising positive raha, to Euro ke izafay ko nuksan ho sakta hai, jahan agla support level 1.1050 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD Price Tendency

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Market dynamics ko dekhte hue, daily chart par nazar daalne se pata chalta hai ke 1.0669 ke local low se bounce karne ke baad, euro/dollar pair ne tez uchaal mara aur ek mazboot upward price channel establish kiya. Filhal, pair 1.1114 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Technical perspective se, yeh strong possibility hai ke euro/dollar pair ke barhne ka silsila jari rahe, recent local high 1.1139 par hai. Isliye, 1.1114 ke current level se, buying ko barhawa dena aur 1.1139 ya thoda upar profits secure karna ek strategic approach ho sakta hai. Lekin, ek alternative scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke euro/dollar pair apni current position se corrective decline de, jo resistance line ko 1.1099 ya 1.1079 ke aas-paas test kar sakta hai.




Yeh zaroori hai ke khabren volatility ko barha sakti hain, lekin movement ki direction volume par heavily depend karti hai. Pehle maine Chicago Board options analysis ka istemal key levels aur targets identify karne ke liye kiya, magar bina iske bhi, fundamental analysis profitable trades ke liye kaafi ho sakti hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, four-hour timeframe mein EUR/USD price ek trend continuation pattern—bullish flag—bana raha hai. Is upward movement ka target 1.1129 aur 1.1142 par hai. Agar price Ichimoku cloud aur moving average ke upar rahti hai, to yeh medium-term uptrend ko suggest karta hai. MACD indicator (12.26.8) upar ki taraf hai, jo bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Dusri taraf, CCI 10 indicator neechay ki taraf hai, jo current correction ko indicate karta hai. Long positions relevant hain, jabke short positions sirf tab honi chahiye agar price Kijun-sen line ke neeche gir jaye aur MACD indicator (12.26.8) downward turn ho.

Tuesday ko, EUR/USD jorha 1.1130 ke upar stable raha, aur trading week shuru hone par kaafi pur-sukoon tha. Jaisay ke hafte ke shuru mein key economic data kam hai, traders apni positions pakde hue hain aur Wednesday ko EU aur US se aane wale crucial Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports ka intezar kar rahe hain. Filhal, jorha 1.1145 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo consolidation phase ko darshata hai kyunke market zyada definitive guidance ki umeed kar rahi hai.

Market ki nazar ab key economic reports par hai: PMI Data aur US Inflation Metrics

Monday aur Tuesday relatively uneventful rahe hain kyunke traders week ke key economic indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Tuesday ko, US Existing Home Sales Change for June ki taraf dhyan diya jayega, jo housing market ki sehat ke baare mein kuch insights de sakta hai. Lekin, main focus Wednesday par hoga jab market EU ke Manufacturing aur Services PMI data ko digest karegi. Umeed hai ke Manufacturing PMI thoda barhega, jabke Services PMI ka 53.0 tak barhne ka tajwez hai, jo pichle mahine 52.8 tha.

PMI data ke ilawa, is hafte ka ek ahem US-centric event hai: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index ka release. Yeh inflation metric, jo Federal Reserve ke liye important hai, aage bhi decline dikhane ki umeed hai. Forecasts ke mutabiq, core PCE inflation June ke liye 2.5% tak kam ho sakti hai, jo pichle 2.6% se girti hai, jo Fed ke inflation outlook mein potential shift ko indicate karta hai.

EUR/USD ka Technical Analysis:

Technically, EUR/USD jorha daily chart par Symmetrical Triangle formation mein aa gaya hai, jab yeh pehle ka breakout sustain nahi kar paya. Currency pair 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche gir gaya hai, jo filhal 1.1004 ke aas-paas hai. Agar jorha 1.1150 ke upar chala jata hai, to yeh EUR/USD ko 1.1200 region ki taraf push kar sakta hai, jo key resistance levels ko break karne par momentum shift ko suggest karta hai.




14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.00-60.00 range tak gir gaya hai, jo bullish momentum ke kam hone ko indicate karta hai. Upar ki taraf, 1.1191 level Euro bulls ke liye ek significant resistance point hai. Is barrier ko paar karna aage ke upward movement ke liye crucial hoga.