𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

GBP/USD bhi din ke pehle hisse mein musbat trades dikha raha tha, jo keh France ke election results se mutaliq toh bilkul bhi nahi tha, kyun ke ye UK ya British pound se koi taluq nahi rakhte. Magar GBP/USD pair, bilkul EUR/USD pair ki tarah, peechle do hafton se sideways trade kar raha hai. Is wajah se, flat trend ke andar mazeed izafa ki dusri dar mein kisi khaas wajah ya justification ki zaroorat nahi thi. Din bhar ke dauran, price 1.2633 aur 1.2693 ke darmiyan hi raha. Volatility mamooli se zyada thi. Din bhar ke macroeconomic events toh thay, lekin market ne inhein amuman ignore kar diya.
Macroeconomic events mein se hum US mein ISM Manufacturing Index ko highlight kar sakte hain. Jo keh expected value se bura dikha, lekin dollar sirf din ke doosre hisse mein hi barh gaya. Isi tarah, ek baar phir pair ne be-ittifaq aur be-bunyaad harkatein dikhai. Magar yaad dilate hain ke flat market mein mantiki harkatein bohat kam hoti hain. Pair ne 5-minute timeframe par do trading signals generate kiye. Jumma ko price ne 1.2605-1.2633 ke area se rebound kiya, lekin hum aksar aise signals se trading next week tak avoid karte hain. Peer ko price ne 1.2684-1.2693 ke area se do baar rebound kiya, jis se naye traders ko short position open karne ka mauqa mila. US session ke dauran, price ne 1.2633 ke qareeb target level tak pohancha. Is trade se lagbhag 35 pips ka faida hua. 1.2633 ke level se do rebounds yeh ishara dete hain ke pair aaj upar bhi ja sakta hai.

Trading tips for Tuesday:
Hourly chart par GBP/USD abhi bhi downtrend ke signs dikhata hai, lekin yeh yeh bhi matlab nahi ke pair upar ki taraf nahi ja sakta. Bearish prospects ke hawale se, achchi baat hai ke price ne 1.2693 level ko do baar overcome kiya hai; lekin market aksar technical, fundamental aur macroeconomic factors ke bawajood bhi selling se inkar kar deta hai. Haal hi mein pair mainly sideways move kar raha hai. Price ne descending channel chhod diya hai.

Aaj ke din, British pound mazeed be-ittifaq aur ghair-mantiki harkatein dikha sakta hai. Mushkil se, pair ko is haftay ke economic calendars mein ahem data shamil honay ki wajah se zyada taqatwar harkatein dikhne shuru ho sakti hain, lekin peer ne dikhaya hai ke hum bohat zyada taqatwar harkaton par ummeed nahi kar sakte.

5M chart par key levels hain 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791 - 1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980. UK mein koi important events ya reports scheduled nahi hain. Dusri taraf, US mein Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ka speech aur JOLTs report jis mein May mein open vacancies ki tadad shamil hai, aane wale hain

Trading Strategy with GBP/USD Prices.

Hamari focus is waqt GBP/USD currency pair ki price action ko evaluate karne par hai. Is waqt yeh currency pair impulsively trade kar rahi hai. Ek price correction hone wali hai, jiska intermediate range 1.265 hai, jo zyada attractive prices par buying ka mauqa de raha hai. Agar yeh scenario develop hota hai, toh profit-taking ka target agla maximum 1.273 hoga, aur ek protective order critical level par set kiya jayega. Additionally, ek entry point long position ke liye tab likely hoga jab currency maximum 1.273 ko surpass kar ke stabilize kar le, signaling market on the PPD. Is scenario mein, profit target agla maximum 1.279 hoga. Lekin, agar pair critical range 1.262 se niche girti hai, toh yeh downward trend ki taraf priorities shift hone ka indication hoga.

Pichle trading week ke results ne GBP/USD pair mein bulls ko khushi di. Do jumps mein—pehle Wednesday ko negative news for US dollar ke sath aur doosre Friday ko—inho ne 28th figure ka start paunch liya, testing resistance at 1.2811. Mera maan-na hai ke yeh end nahi hai. Monday aksar Friday ke trends ko reverse karta hai, khas taur par jab four-hour stochastic overbought conditions indicate karta hai, toh main expect karta hoon ke week ke start mein GBP/USD pair ke liye bearish correction hoga. Lekin, agar bears ko fundamental support na mile, toh decline short-lived hoga, likely sirf support area 1.2771 tak, uske baad growth wapas shuru hogi. Ek correction zaroori hai taake is currency pair ki overbought conditions ko alleviate kiya ja sake. Filhal, GBP/USD quotes mere sab technical indicators ke upar four-hour chart par trade kar rahe hain, jo active buying ko indicate kar rahe hain aur further growth ko predict karte hain. Goal hai 28th figure ke middle ko reach karna aur June 13 ke high ko update karne ki koshish karna.

**GBP/USD Analysis**

Dekha ja sakta hai ke jo bullish price movement 1.2800 level ko break karne mein kamiyab hua, uski movement bohot impulsive aur convincing thi. Jaise ke kuch din pehle market trend mein dekha gaya tha, is hafta GBPUSD currency pair ka price movement bohot araam se bullish direction mein move kar raha hai aur ye condition buyer army ke shuru se hi price increase ko continue kar rahi hai. Abhi ke price position ko dekhte hue, lagta hai ke yeh abhi 1.2811 level par hai.

Is hafta ke tezi se fast movement structure ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke bullish movement ka continuation ho sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke last week ke end par price increase 1.2816 level tak pahunch gaya tha. Is condition ke saath buyer army ka confidence aur barh jayega ke price ko consistently upar push karte rahein. Agle trading session mein mujhe lagta hai ke abhi bhi kuch scenarios hain jin se hum market trend ke mutabiq profit hasil kar sakte hain. Isliye, hum market conditions ka intezar karenge taake analysis ke mutabiq action lein.

Pichle hafte ke market conditions ke observations ke mutabiq, Relative Strength Index indicator par Lime Line ka position abhi bhi araam se level 70 ke upar hai, jo ek consistent bullish trend ka tasveer hai. Is hafta, candlestick bilkul clear hai ke upwards move ho rahi hai. Graph ko dekhte hue, buyer's troops abhi bhi dominate kar rahe hain aur price fluctuation relatively high hai.

Agar main pehle dinon ke candlestick movement ko dekhoon, to agle hafte price ke phir se bullish hone ka chance hai. BUY transaction set-up ke liye, hum intezar kar sakte hain ke price 1.2830 level tak move kare. Is hafta GBPUSD currency pair ki movement bohot volatile rahi hai, isliye trading capital ko carefully use karna chahiye taake loss ka risk limit kiya ja sake.

Jo pair hai woh DXY ke muqablay mein notable strength dikha raha hai, Friday tak lagbhag 0.06% ka izafa hua. Yeh performance zyada tar European siyasi beyaqainee aur Bank of England ki aane wali monetary policy finding ke sabab hai. Abhi GBP/USD pair 1.2810 par trading kar raha hai, jab ke yeh daily high 1.2819 ko chhoo chuka hai.

### GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

DXY weak retail sales data ki wajah se pressure mein hai, jisne iski value ko neecha kar diya hai. European trading hours ke doran six-week high se rebound hone ke bawajood, DXY jo ke greenback ko chhay bara currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai, 105.30 tak gir gaya. Yeh intraday decline traders ke cautious sentiment ko highlight karta hai.

USD ki resilience ko Federal Reserve (Fed) ke officials ke cautious approach towards interest rate cuts se atriboot kiya ja sakta hai. Fed ne yeh indication di hai ke woh is saal sirf ek dafa rates ko reduce karne ko tarjeeh dete hain, woh bhi tab jab inflation ka sustained decline ho. Premature rate cuts ke baare mein fikr, jo inflationary pressures ko dobara bharak sakti hain, ne Fed ki policies ko firmly jagah par rakha hai, pehle quarter mein stall hone ke baad disinflation resume hone ke bawajood.

### Four-hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jab pair 1.2700 mark se neeche gir gaya, to further losses ka rasta khul gaya. Key support levels mein last week ka low 1.2616, 100-day Moving Average (DMA) at 1.2700, aur 50-day DMA at 1.2685 shamil hain. In levels ka breach hona 200-DMA at 1.2717 ko expose kar sakta hai. Bullish continuation ke liye, traders ko GBP/USD ko broken support trendline ke upar push karna hoga, jo ab resistance hai, around 1.2900, pehle 1.2850 ko test karne se pehle.

Pair US Dollar ke muqablay mein crucial resistance level of 1.2800 ke qareeb recover ho gaya hai. Is rebound ke bawajood, pair 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche 1.2742 ke qareeb rehta hai, jo near-term trend mein uncertainty ko zahir karta hai. 50-day EMA ke qareeb 1.2670 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ek significant support level serve karta hai.

GBP/USD 0.20% se zyada barh gaya hai, US jobs report ke baad jo June mein zyada jobs show karti hai lekin April aur May ke figures ko revise karke niche karti hai. Bullish technical outlook ke sath GBP/USD key resistance 1.2660/75 ke kareeb hai.

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2894 (YTD high), 1.2900, 1.2995 (July 27, 2023 ka high), 1.3000 ke kareeb pohanch raha hai.
Support points: 1.2733 (July 4 ka low), 1.2709 (April 8 ka high), 1.2700, 1.2673 (50-DMA).

GBP/USD ne Friday ko zyada se zyada 0.20% se zyada gains register kiye jab June ke US jobs data ne dikhaya ke economy ne umeed se zyada jobs add ki hain, halan ke April aur May ke figures ko revise karke niche karne se yeh lagta hai ke labor market mazeed kamzor hui hai. Major 1.2790 par trade kar raha hai, apne opening price se upar, din ka lowest 1.2752 ko touch karne ke baad.

Din bhar GBP/USD 1.2800 ke psychological level ke aas paas fluctuate karta raha, crucial resistance trendlines ko cross karte hue jo pehle support ban gaya tha 1.2660/75 ke aas paas.

Momentum bullish hai, jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne depict kiya hai, 50-neutral line ko June 2 ko pierce karne ke baad upar ki taraf aim kar raha hai.

Isliye, GBP/USD ka least resistance path upar ki taraf hai. Agar buyers daily close 1.2800 ke upar achieve kar lete hain, to yeh year-to-date (YTD) high 1.2894 ko challenge karne ka raasta bana dega. Aur agar pair is level ko cross kar leta hai, to agla resistance 1.2900 par hoga, phir July 27, 2023 ka high 1.2995 aur 1.3000 ke aage.

Bearish reversal ke liye, sellers expect karenge ke exchange rate July 4 ka daily low 1.2733 ke niche gir jaye. Yeh April 8 ka high, jo support bana 1.2709 par, ko expose karega aur phir 1.2700 ko expose karega. Agar mazeed losses hoti hain, to yeh 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.2673 par expose karega.

GBP/USD Analysis - 05 July 2024

Aaj subah US Dollar global currencies ke mukablay mein dabao mein hai kyunki price quote daily pivot se neeche hai. Ek interesting pair jo price action ke lehaz se dekha jaye toh GBPUSD hai jo ke bullish movement mein 160 pips record kar chuka hai, isliye abhi bhi mauka hai ke resistance 1.2858 ko penetrate kare aur weekly range ko 240 pips complete kare. Is journal mein, main technical aspects aur aaj ke trading setup ko discuss karunga multi-timeframes ko basis banate hue.

Asian market ke khulne se le kar, price weekly highest area 1.2776 mein hai, ye level potential sell area hai agar price fail ho jati hai jab buyers apni profits realize karte hue open positions close karte hain. Magar, daily timeframe pe candle abhi tak upper BB ko touch nahi kar saki aur abhi bhi kafi room hai ke ye 1.2800 tak badh sake. Iske ilawa, 1.2858 tak upar janay ka bhi kafi potential hai, kyunki aaj raat NFP data release hone wala hai jo forex market mein aksar bohot ziada volatility lata hai. Magar agar price market close pe hold nahi kar pati, toh ye ek daily reject candle produce karegi jo next trade mein decline trigger kar sakti hai. Is condition se humain ek general picture milta hai ke price fake out karne ka potential rakhta hai.

4-hour timeframe pe movement dekhi jaye toh buyers successfully orange downtrend line ko breakout kar chuke hain aur uptrend shuru kar chuke hain, magar price position blue rectangle supply zone 1.2757 - 1.2766 mein phas gayi hai, agar price grow nahi karti toh ye decline trigger karegi yellow rectangle demand zone 1.2691 - 1.2678 tak, ye demand zone weekly re-entry buy hai. Doosri taraf, agar buyers successful hote hain breakout mein, toh price movement green rectangle resistance area 1.2843 - 1.2856 ki taraf move karegi. Agar RSI 14 aur Stochastic oscillator indicators observe kiye jayein, toh ye overbought area mein flat hain, jo indicate karta hai ke bullish trend abhi bhi dominant hai. ZZL ya Sone Zero Loss signal form ho chuka hai jahan MA5/MA10 High aur Low lines aur middle Bollinger band line upar ja rahi hain aur blue EMA50 trend line ko penetrate kar rahi hain. Jab ye death cross pattern form hota hai, aam tor pe price pull back karti hai aur ek optimal buy position open karne ka mauka milta hai.

Trading Setup
BUY ON BREAKOU: Agar supply zone 1.2757 - 1.2766 ka breakout hota hai solid bullish candle ke sath, SL 1.2730 aur TP 1.2843.
2. BUY LIM Yellow rectangle demand area 1.2691 - 1.2678 mein possible pullback ko anticipate karte hue, SL 1.2650 aur TP1 1.2766 - TP2 1.2843.

GBP/USD Price Move Analysis

Is waqt hum GBP/USD currency pair ki pricing movements ka tajzia kar rahe hain. Market band hone se pehle, GBP/USD pair thoda upar gaya tha, 1.2818 tak pohanch gaya tha, phir neeche aaya. Ab yeh 1.2812 par trade ho raha hai. RSI strong sell zone mein hai aur neeche ki taraf ja raha hai, jab ke Awesome Oscillator (AO) ek strong decline signal de raha hai. Pair pichle din ke range se kafi upar trade kar raha hai, jo potential decline ka ishara hai. Intermediate support 1.2761 par hai, jo thoda rebound kar sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, to further decline 1.2691 support level tak ho sakta hai. Ek aur scenario yeh hai ke yeh 1.2838 resistance level tak upar ja sakta hai, lekin yeh lagbhag na-mumkin hai kyun ke pair ki growth khatam hone wali lag rahi hai. Is analysis ki buniyad par, hum current prices se cautious selling recommend karte hain, target 1.2761 aur agar yeh break hota hai to 1.2701 tak.


Yeh pair is hafte upward trend mein raha hai, jo Monday se continue ho sakta hai. Daily chart mein, yeh pair ek ascending channel ke andar hai aur channel ke upper border 1.2984 tak ja sakta hai. Is level tak pohanch kar, growth ruk sakti hai, jis se reversal aur potential decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair girna shuru hota hai, to yeh ascending channel ke lower border 1.2711 tak ja sakta hai. 1.2861 se, jahan bullish zigzag activate hota hai, hum 34th figure mein target project karte hain, specifically 1.3413-1.3438 ke range mein. Current technical conditions ke under, main bearish outlook se mutafiq nahi hoon. Hum jaldi hi 1.2661 dekhne wale hain. Yeh perspective reflect karta hai ongoing debate ko traders ke darmiyan jo levels ko impulses for continuation (punchers) ke tor pe dekhte hain aur jo levels ko resistance points leading to reversals (bouncers) ke tor pe dekhte hain. As a puncher, main har level ko ek potential impulse ke tor pe dekh raha hoon, supported by Elliot's theory of a 138.2% extension of the primary wave. Bouncers wahi levels ko resistance points ke tor pe dekhte hain jahan prices reverse direction karti hain.

GBP USD Forum Analysis,Forecast
Rozana Chart

Hum pound/dollar pair ke bazaar ki surat-e-haal ka tajziya jari rakhte hain. Hum ek side-ways timeframe kholte hain aur dekhte hain ke pehle se hi ek side-ways price wedge ban chuka hai, jismein pound/dollar pair summer 2023 se ab tak trade kar raha hai. Is ke ilawa, abhi hum dekh rahe hain ke neeche ki taraf ki jaane wali wave, jo resistance line se rebound ke baad shuru hui thi, teen nakam koshishon ke baad toot gayi jab bearish logon ne 1.2620 ke level ko test karne ki koshish ki. Keemat ne neeche se tezi se rebound ki aur literal tor par uttar ki taraf chal di, aur is post likhne ke waqt, hum dekh rahe hain ke buyers ne aakhirkaar wedge ko tod diya hai, uske upper border 1.2780 ke paar. Jumeraat ke bazaar 1.2815 par band hua aur takneeki taur par sab kuch ishara deta hai ke upar ki taraf trend jaari rahega aur madhyam-term trading perspective mein 1.2900 tak izafa mumkin hai.

H1 Ghantay

Pehle mein ne pound/dollar ke daily chart ko dekha aur ab mein H1 chart kholna chahta hoon. Neeche ke timeframe par hum saaf dekhte hain ke ek u-turn ho raha hai, jahan neeche ki taraf jaane wala trend dheere dheere side-ways trading mein badal raha hai, aur phir upar ki taraf badal raha hai. 1.2620 (ya 1.2615 ke level) ke local minimum se rebound ke baad, pound/dollar pair ne apne tezi se izafa ki taraf rukh kiya aur phir ek mazboot ascending price channel bana, jismein pound/dollar pair is analytical post likhne ke waqt 1.2815 ke level par trade kar raha hai. Yani ke Jumeraat ke trading is price par khatam hui aur inhi levels se aap medium aur long term trading perspective mein pound/dollar pair ko khareedne ke liye aasani se tayyar ho sakte hain.

GBP/USD ANALYSIS
Dekha ja sakta hai ke 1.2800 level se bahar nikalne wali bullish price movement bohat taizi aur qabil-e-yaqeen thi. Jaise ke kuch din pehle market trend hua tha, is hafte GBPUSD currency pair ki price movement bullish direction mein bohat comfortable lag rahi hai aur yeh condition seller army ke price increase ke continuation ki tasdiq hai jo is mahine ke shuru se ki gayi hai. Moujooda price position dekhte hue lagta hai ke abhi bhi 1.2811 level par hai.

Is hafte ki tezi se movement structure ko dekhte hue, mujhe shak hai ke bullish movement ka continuation ho sakta hai, khas tor par jab price increase pichle hafte ke end tak 1.2816 level tak pohanch gaya tha. Is halat mein buyer army ka confidence barh jayega ke wo price ko mazeed upar le jane ke liye jari rakhenge. Agli trading session mein main dekh raha hoon ke kuch scenarios hain jinhein hum market trend ke mutabiq faida uthane ke liye istemal kar sakte hain. Is liye hum market conditions ka intezar karenge jo hamare analysis ke mutabiq ho.

Pichle haftay ke market conditions ke mutabiq, Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator par Lime Line ka position ab bhi aram se 70 level ke upar hai, jo ek consistent bullish trend ka tasawwur hai. Is hafte candlestick clearly upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Agar hum graph ko dekhein, toh buyer ke troops price fluctuation ke relatively high level par dominate kar rahe hain.

Agar main pichle dino ke candlestick movement ko dekho, toh lagta hai ke agli hafte price phir se bullish ho sakti hai. BUY transaction set-up ke liye hum price ka wait kar sakte hain 1.2830 level tak. GBPUSD currency pair ki movement ki character is hafte mein kaafi volatile hai, is liye trading capital istemal mein behter hai ke hum hoshyar rahein ke nuqsan ke risk ko had se zyada na karen.

Asian trading session mein, 1.2715 price level par narrow range ko tor diya gaya tha, jo custom moving average ke upar hone ke nateejay mein hua tha. Mein ye peshan karta hoon ke keemat stabil hogi aur 1.2760 ke resistance level ke upar bandh hogi. Asset ab retesting kar raha hai, jo bullish rally ke imkanat ko barhata hai. Is ke ilawa, MACD ki bullish crossover buyers ke liye ek chhupi hui mauqa ki nishani ho sakti hai. Chaar ghantay ke timeframe par yeh bhi dekha gaya hai ke GBP/USD mein ek girawat ho sakti hai. MACD ki 100-fast EMA ke zor se keemat ko 1.2590 price level ki taraf dabaav aane ka intezar hai. Meri trades 1.2635 kshetra par hain, jo is mumkin area ke kareeb hain. 1.2735 support level ko torne ke bawajood, keemat abhi tak bullish trend ko darshata nahi hai. Keemat ki behtar hone ki ummeed hogi agar wo 1.2675 horizontal line ko todti hai.

Company ke liye koi bhi grow karne ki nishaniyan nahi hain, lekin woh stable rehti hai. Chaand ki inverted Head and Shoulders pattern mein right shoulder ke neeche hone ke wajah se GBP/USD mein umeed hai ke qeemat mein izafa ho sakta hai. Yeh ummeed hai ke pair ascending channel ke upper border ki taraf move karega, lekin mein yeh bhi expect karta hoon ke kuch waqt ke liye GBP/USD nichle edge of the channel ki taraf gir sakta hai.

GBP/USD abhi side-ways trade ho raha hai, jo USD ke movements ko reflect kar raha hai. Jaise pehle bhi zikr kiya gaya, US dollar index 1.2745 ke initial resistance level ko test kar raha hai, jo GBP/USD mein bari izafa ka sabab ho sakta hai. Haal hi mein keemat ne nichle jaane wali trend ko dekha, aur 1.2710 tak pohanchi hai. Is level se breakout jald hi hone ki ummeed hai, jo keemat mein mazeed izafa ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Haal ki US dollar index mein consolidation ke baad, keemat girne ka silsila jari reh sakta hai lekin jald hi gehri bearish trend mein dakhil ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD Market Forecast

Assalam-o-Alaikum aur Good Morning sab Members aur Visitors ko!

UK Elections GBP/USD ki market sentiment ka taayun karengi. Isliye, nayi market sentiment buyers ko 1.2775 zone cross karne mein madad de sakti hai. Kal GBP/USD ka market 1.2747 zone par pohanch gaya tha jo ke aik resistance area hai. Aaj Jumma hai aur market US zone ke doran volatility ke sath chal sakta hai. Saath hi, US Unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings, aur Non-Farm Employment rates bhi aaj GBP/USD market mein volatility laayengi. Isliye, aapko apne trading mein stop loss use karna chahiye aur market data ko gaur se dekhna chahiye. Umeed hai ke aaj GBP/USD market buyers ke haq mein rahegi aur wo baad mein 1.2782 zone cross kar sakte hain. UK Elections aur aham US economic data ka milaap market mein significant movements ka raasta banayega. Traders ko in conditions mein disciplined approach rakhni hogi, strategic stop losses ke sath aur dono UK aur US data ko barabar monitor karna zaroori hoga. In events ke chakkar mein market sentiment mein shifts ke liye tayar rehna zaroori hai. Agar US ke economic indicators achi taraf jaayein aur UK Elections ka outlook positive ho, to GBP/USD pair key resistance levels ko tor sakti hai, jo ke buyers ke liye opportunities paida karegi. Aise current market trading environment mein informed decision-making aur risk management essential hoga market trends ko capitalize karne ke liye. Overall, mein umeed karta hoon ke GBP/USD market buyers ko further chances degi 1.2800 zone cross karne ke liye jald.

Ek successful trading day guzariye!

air ki nazr-e-aamad ke mutabiq, pound sterling ke qeemat mid-week trading mein US dollar ke khilaf aik teesra percent kam hui, jis ki wajah "tight" signals thin jo US Federal Reserve ke afraad ne jaari kiye thay. Is natijay mein, pound sterling ke qeemat ke nuqsanat US dollar ke khilaf, GBP/USD, 1.2612 level tak phel gaye, jo ke cheh hafte ki kamzori ki sabsay kam qeemat thi, phir likhnay ke waqt 1.2645 level par stabil ho gayi thi aur ahem American economic releases ke ilaan se pehle. US dollar ke qeemat pehlay hi se euro-centric khatron se aagay hai jo France ke weekend ke elections se dominated ho sakta hai, jo European Central Bank ko aane waale dinon mein mazeed interest rates cut karne par majboor kar sakta hai. Analysts ke mutabiq, Canada aur Australia ke past 24 ghanton mein heran kun taizi se inflation rates ne global inflation ki dobara shuru hone ke khauf ko barhaya hai, jis ne bond yields ko buland kiya hai. Bohat se Fed afraad ne is baat par tanqeed ki hai ke is saal interest rates ko kam karne mein jaldi nahi kiya jaye ga, jo bond markets par dabao dala hai aur aakhir kar US dollar ko pasand kiya hai.
Is lehaz se, Brown Brothers Harriman ke mahir Dr. Win Thein ke mutabiq: "Fed afraad ab bhi sakht hain." Interest rate policy mein United States (lambi muddat ke liye buland interest rates), United Kingdom aur Eurozone ke darmiyan farq US dollar ko support deta hai.

Haal hi mein di gayi bayaniyon ke mutabiq, "Hum abhi tak us maqam par nahi pohanchay hain jahan interest rates ko kam karne ka munasib waqt ho," kehti hain Fed policymaker Michelle Bowman. "Mere economic outlook ke risks aur uncertainty ke baray mein, main monetary policy ke future changes ko tawajjo se gaur se sochnay mein surkhiyaan rakhun gi." Unhon ne bhi apni political position ka zikr kiya hai." Unhon ne bhi bataya hai ke un mein se kai afraad hain jo is saal kisi bhi cut ko nahi dekhtay, jo unhen interest rates ko be-harkat rehnay par yakeen hai. June 12 ko Fed ne jari kiye gaye forecasts ke mutabiq, unke saat colleagues ek cut dekhtay hain, aur un ashtafaa ko do cut dekhte hain. "Main future meetings mein federal funds rate ke target range ko barhane ke liye tayyar rehti hun agar inflation ruk jaye ya palat jaye," Bowman ne izafah kiya.

Apni taraf se, Federal Reserve ke President Lisa De Kock ne cut ko qubool karne ke liye zyada raghib nazar aayi, kehte hue: "Inflation mein mazeed izafa aur kaam ke bazat-e-khalal gradual slow honay ke sath, policy restrictions ke level ko kam karne ke liye kisi bhi waqt munasib ho sakta hai takay economy mein sehat mand balance ko barqarar rakha ja sakay." Unhon ne ye bhi izafah kiya ke is tarah ke kisi adjustment ka waqt economic data ke baray mein kaisa hota hai aur ye economic expectations aur risk balance ke liye kya matlab rakhta hai, is par munhasir hoga. Market ab bhi November ko cut ke liye sab se zyada mumkin maqam samajhti hai, haan ke September mein 70% chances hain ke cut ho sakta hai.

Sterling Dollar forecast aaj:

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, British pound ke qeemat US dollar ke khilaf, GBP/USD, ab bhi bearish hai, aur 1.2600 support ko toornay se trend par bears ka qabza mazboot ho jaye ga. Agla psychological support 1.2445 hoga, jo technical indicators ko strong overbought levels ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo ke ek ahem buying area hai. Dusri taraf, is samay ke doraan, current bearish channel bina resistance 1.2775 ke taraf barhnay ke bina tootay ga nahi. Aaj, GBP/USD pair ko US GDP growth reading, haftay ke jobless claims ki tadad aur durable goods

GBP/USD

Pichle hafte ke trading mein, GBPUSD currency pair bullish movement mein raha jab tak market close nahi hua, aur abhi yeh 1.2805 ya pichle din ke opening price se upar trade kar raha hai. D1 time frame par jo candle bani hai, wo abhi bhi MA 24 aur MA 200 lines ke upar hai jabke stochastic indicator 5.3.3 level 80 ke upar hai, aur yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke GBPUSD currency pair abhi bhi buyers ke qabze mein hai aur aaj ke trading mein bullish trend ko continue karne ke imkanaat hain.

Pichle jumme ke din aayi NFP news ne USD index par pressure dala, jiski wajah se kuch currency pairs mein izafa dekhne ko mila NFP news ke release hone ke baad aur lagta hai ke yeh is haftay ke aaghaz mein bhi jaari rahega. Upar diye gaye tajziya ki roshni mein, aaj ke trading ke liye umeed hai ke GBPUSD currency pair bullish trend ko jaari rakhega, halan ke pehle ek downward correction ho sakta hai uske baad bullish trend continue karega aur hum is pair mein buying opportunities dekh sakte hain.

Mere trading plan ke mutabiq is haftay ke aaghaz mein, mein 1.2805 par buy order place karunga jiska profit target 1.2835 par hoga aur stoploss 1.2775 par hoga. Lot volume ko hum apne trading account ki resistance ke mutabiq adjust kar sakte hain. Yeh trading journal update hai jo mein is subah aapko de sakta hoon, umeed hai ke yeh mufeed hoga aur doosre doston ke liye samajhna asan hoga aur market mein entry ko decide karne ke liye ek reference banega. Mera yeh sab hai aur sab doston ko achha din guzaray.

Technical Analysis

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ke mutabiq, value 50 level se neeche hai jo bearish bias ko darshati hai. Yeh Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator se bhi mazid taqat milti hai jo downward trend ko show kar raha hai. MACD line waqai midline ke upar hai lekin signal line ke neeche divergence show kar raha hai. Midline ke neeche break hone se bearish trend mazid mazboot ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD Pair ki Technical Analysis


US dollar ki price mein girawat hui jab ek weekly survey ne dikhaya ke US mein unemployment benefits ke liye apply karne walon ki tadad mein izafa hua. Magar ISM survey ke services sector mein unexpected sharp slowdown dikhane ke baad selling ka pressure already peak par tha. Is ka natija yeh hua ke British pound ki price US dollar ke against jump karke 1.2777 resistance level tak pahunch gayi, jo ke do hafton se zyada ka sabse uncha level hai, aur phir Thursday ke trading ke aghaz par around 1.2740 par settle hui. Yeh sab American holiday aur British parliamentary elections ke intezar ke doran hua.

Economic calendar ke results ke mutabiq, US headline ISM Services PMI June mein 48.8% tak pohanch gaya, jo ke activity mein contraction indicate karta hai, May ke 53.8% se neeche. Expectations ke muqable mein yeh decline significant tha, kyunki consensus 52.5% ki reading ke liye prepared tha. Kul mila kar, service companies American economy ka sabse bara sector hain. Markets ne loss ke size par react kiya aur yeh bet kiya ke Federal Reserve September mein US interest rates cut karne par confident hoga. Iske jawab mein, US bond yields gir gaye, dollar gir gaya, aur stock prices badh gayi.

ISM report ne dikhaya ke US companies jo new orders badhne ki umeed kar rahi thi, woh 47.3% tak gir gayi, jo ke Great Financial Crisis ke baad ka lowest level hai aur 2001 recession se bhi neeche. Price index June mein 56.3% record hui, jo May ke reading 58.1% se 1.8 percentage points neeche thi. ING Bank ke analysts ka kehna tha: "Yeh zaroor September mein Fed ke rate cut ke case ko strengthen karta hai, kyunki yeh weak growth, slowing inflation aur deteriorating jobs market ke tamam boxes tick karta hai." "Fed recession cause nahi karna chahta agar woh usse avoid kar sakta hai."

Kal. Labor Department ne report diya ke Americans jo unemployment benefits ke liye naye claims file kar rahe hain, unki tadad pichle hafte 4,000 se badh kar seasonally adjusted 238,000 ho gayi. Consensus forecast 235,000 ke liye thi. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ne Tuesday ko kaha ke agar labor market deteriorate karta hai, toh interest rates ko cut karne ka mauka hai. Yeh signal tha ke Fed interest rates cut karne ke liye open hoga inflation ke 2.0% target tak moderate hone se pehle.

Yeh matlab hai ke jobs market par onus hai ke woh interest rate cuts deliver kare jo kai US households, businesses aur investors crave kar rahe hain.
GBP/USD Forecast Aaj:


Jaise ke maine pehle kaha tha, GBP/USD price ka 1.2775 resistance ke upar stabilize hone ka success bulls ko aur higher move karne ke liye support karega. Agla stop aur bullish control ke liye 1.2830 hoga, aur baat badh rahi hai ke wapas 1.3000 psychological resistance area tak pahunchne ki. Iske liye weak US job numbers aur British parliamentary elections ke results se sterling mein confidence ka wapas ana zaroori hai. Dusri taraf, daily chart par support level 1.2600 sabse important rahega bears ke control ki strength ke liye.





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GBP/USD TAAK LIKHAWAT 08 JULY 2024




Geet saal ki trading mein, GBPUSD currency pair ne last week mein up trend dekha, aur abhi yeh trading price 1.2805 par hai ya pehle din ke opening price se ziada hai, D1 time frame par banay gaye candle ka position halat mein abhi bhi MA 24 aur MA 200 lines ke upar hai jab ke stochastic indicator 5.3.3 level 80 ke upar hai, iska matlab hai ke GBPUSD currency pair abhi bhi buyers ke control mein hai aur aaj ke trading mein bullish trend jari rakhne ka imkan hai.
NFP news ke natije ne pichle Jumma ko USD index par dabao dala tha jis se kuch currency pairs ne news ke release ke baad izafa dekha aur lagta hai ke is haftay ke shuru mein yeh jari rahega, upar di gayi analysis ke mutabiq, aaj ke trading mein GBPUSD currency pair ka muzahira bullish trend jari rahega bhale hi baad mein ek neeche ki correction ho gi pehle phir bullish trend jari rahega aur hum baad mein is pair mein kharidne ke moqay dhoond sakte hain.

Meri trading strategy is hafte ke shuru mein, main 1.2805 price par aik kharid order lagao ga jiska profit target 1.2835 price par hoga aur stoploss 1.2775 price par rahega aur lot volume ko apne trading account ke resistance ke hisab se adjust kar sakte hain. Yeh tha meri aaj ke subah tak ki trading journal update, umeed hai ke yeh aap ke liye faidemand aur samajhne layak sabit hoga aur doosron ke liye market mein dakhil hone mein reference ban sakega, yeh tha meri taraf se aur sab dosto ko acha din guzarne ki dua.

Technical Analysis

14 din ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ke hisab se, value 50 level ke neeche hai jo ek bearish mansooba bandi ko darust karti hai. Yeh baat bhi MACD momentum indicator ke zariye tasdiq hoti hai jo ek neeche ki taraf trend dikhata hai. MACD line toh midline ke upar hai lekin signal line ke neeche diverge dikhata hai. Midline ke neeche ek toot is bearish trend ko mazboot kar sakta hai.