𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

**Good Day!**

Aaj GBP/USD pair ke liye technical outlook kuch had tak EUR/USD se milta julta hai, sirf numbers alag hain. Dono cases mein, hum dekh rahe hain ke downtrend ke doran bears ne TMA indicator ki lower boundary ko test kiya hai, aur agar breakthrough hota hai to chaar ghante ka trend downward ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD ki price ne 1.2900 ke key level ke neeche move kiya hai, lekin abhi tak confirmation nahi mili. Isliye maine chart par yeh indicate kiya hai ke agar pair 1.29 level ke neeche girti hai, to trend sach mein change ho jayega.

Aaj hum dekhte hain ke kya news milti hai. Main yaad dilana chahunga ke hum US ke business activity indexes in manufacturing aur services sectors ke liye July ke data ka intezar kar rahe hain, sath hi crude oil inventories ki bhi report aayegi. Yeh naye movement ko janm de sakta hai jo zaroori nahi ke technical picture ke saath align ho. Lekin, market mein US Dollar ke further strengthening ka scenario sabse zyada expected hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke agar bears support level 1.2860 tak pohnch jate hain aur isse break kar dete hain, to hum GBP/USD pair ko 1.28 ke shuruati level tak girne ki umeed kar sakte hain, jo ke medium-term downtrend ki shuruat ko mark karega.

[Attachment: Chart]

**As of Writing**

Aaj GBP/USD pair chart ke upper half mein ek southern correction dekha ja raha hai, aur abhi price 1.28876 par hai. Instaforex company ke indicators forum par pehle part mein bulls aur bears ke darmiyan gap 50.2% hai. Dusre part mein, indicator southward trend dikhata hai. Aaj ke liye is pair se kya surprises mil sakte hain? UK aur US se koi aham aur interesting news expected nahi hai: manufacturing business activity index, services business activity index, new home sales aur crude oil reserves. Yeh fundamental analysis ke liye kafi hai, aur technical analysis bhi kiya ja sakta hai. Mere khayal se, shuru mein pair 1.2845 level tak south adjustment karega aur phir 1.2930 level tak north ki taraf barhega. Happy hunting everyone!

**GBP/USD H-4 Analysis**

Aaj GBP/USD pair ka technical picture EUR/USD se milta julta hai, numbers alag hain lekin dono cases mein bears lower limits ko test kar rahe hain. Iska breakout chaar ghante ka trend ko downward bana sakta hai.

Asal mein, GBP/USD price 1.2900 ke round figure ke neeche chali gayi hai lekin abhi tak yeh confirm nahi hua hai. Isliye, maine screenshot par yeh point kiya hai ke agar pair 1.29 level se door chali jati hai, to trend change ho jayega.

Aaj ke news ka bhi intezar hai, jahan US Manufacturing aur Services Business Activity Index ke July ke data aur crude oil reserves ki report aayegi. Yeh naye movement ko janm de sakta hai, aur USD ki further strength market mein ek major factor ban sakti hai, jo technical aspects se match nahi karti.

Agar bears 1.2860 support ko touch aur break kar dete hain, to GBP/USD pair 28-day chart par girna shuru kar sakta hai, jo medium-term downtrend ko mark karega. Short-term nahi, lekin medium-term ke downtrend ke shuruat ke liye yeh indication hai.

**GBP/USD H-4 Analysis**

Aapko din ki shubhkamnayein. GBP/USD pair ki correction ko kam se kam 1.2860 tak pohnchna chahiye tha. Shayad unho ne thoda bahar chhod diya ho, maine pehle likha tha ke woh shayad 20 points ke aas-paas miss karenge, aur wahi ab hai. Lekin mujhe lagta hai ke woh thoda aur aage 1.2860 tak jane ki koshish karenge. Shayad woh 1.2860 support ko break nahi kar paayenge, kyun ke main reversal ki ummeed kar raha hoon, aur ab bhi kar raha hoon. Jab maine weak support 1.2970 ko break karne ke baad 1.2860 tak pohnchne ki baat ki thi, toh woh lagbhag pohnch gaye, agar kuch points ko chhod diya jaye.

Ab dekha jaye toh pair ke liye southward movement karna mushkil ho raha hai, aur maximum 1.300 ke upar se poori correction ke baad, pair downward impulse ko normal tareeke se develop nahi kar pa raha hai. Yeh chhoti chhoti impulses dikhati hain, jo correction trend ki kamzori ka izhaar karti hain aur main 1.2860 se reversal ki ummeed kar raha hoon, jaisa ki maine correction ke shuruat mein anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, mujhe lagta hai ke pair 1.2970 ki resistance tak barhega, lekin woh isko break nahi kar paayenge, kyun ke resistance price se bahut door hai aur pair ek din mein itna distance nahi overcome kar sakta. Isliye, growth kal tak chalti rahegi, aur agar growth continue hoti hai, toh 1.2970 ka breakout hone ke high chances hain aur haftay ke end tak 1.3065 target kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar pair 1.2860 ke support ko break karke consolidate kar le, toh decline 1.2730 tak continue ho sakti hai. Lekin main aise turn of events ko strongly doubt karta hoon, toh main growth ki ummeed kar raha hoon, shayad galat, lekin mujhe kal 1.2970 ka breakout aur uske saath growth ki ummeed hai.

**GBP/USD Analysis**

GBP/USD pair filhal din ke opening level 1.2900 ke neeche trade kar raha hai aur daily Pivot level 1.2909 se bhi neeche hai. Key indicators bearish signals de rahe hain aur price MA72 trend line ke neeche hai, jahan volume distribution aam taur par hota hai.

Agar price 1.2900 ke level ke upar chali jati hai, to hum ummeed kar sakte hain ke pair 1.2909 aur shayad 1.2930 tak barhega. Lekin agar price 1.2886 ke level ke neeche girti hai, to mujhe lagta hai ke pair 1.2870 aur shayad 1.2840 tak decline kar sakta hai.

Pound filhal monthly Pivot level 1.2704 (pehle 1.2662) ke upar, weekly Pivot level 1.2951 (pehle 1.2917) ke neeche, aur daily Pivot level 1.2909 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke pair ke liye strong corrective sentiment ko indicate karta hai.

Daily Pivot level 1.2909 ke upar, pair north ki taraf move karega, aur agar daily Pivot level 1.2909 ke neeche rahega, to southern correction mazid majboot hogi. Aaj price level 1.2886 par divergence develop hui hai.

**GBP/USD Ki Bara Ghulat Ka Moomkinah**

Filhal GBP/USD currency pair 1.2902 par trade kar raha hai aur recent bearish trend ko continue kar raha hai. Jabke market dheere dheere chal rahi hai, kuch factors hain jo agle dinon mein significant movement ko contribute kar sakte hain. Yeh analysis technical, fundamental, aur geopolitical factors ko dekhega jo GBP/USD pair ko influence kar sakte hain aur bade shift ki possibility ko janam de sakte hain.

#### Technical Analysis

Technical analysis price charts aur historical data ka istemal karke future price movements ki forecasting karti hai. GBP/USD ka current bearish trend various technical indicators se zahir hai:

1. **Moving Averages**: Pair 50-day aur 200-day moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ko indicate karta hai. 50-day moving average ka 200-day moving average ke neeche aana, jo “death cross” kehlata hai, ek strong bearish signal hai.

2. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: RSI oversold territory ke aas-paas hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke pair reversal ya temporary bounce ke liye tayar ho sakta hai.

3. **Support aur Resistance Levels**: Immediate support level 1.2850 ke aas-paas hai, jabke key resistance level 1.3000 par hai. Agar support break hota hai, to sharp decline dekhne ko mil sakti hai, aur agar resistance break hota hai to bullish reversal start ho sakta hai.

4. **Fibonacci Retracement**: Recent high se low tak Fibonacci retracement levels ko dekhte hue, 38.2% aur 50% retracement levels key areas hain jahan resistance ya support dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

#### Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis economic indicators, interest rates, aur doosre factors ko examine karti hai jo currency movements ko predict kar sakte hain. GBP/USD ko impact karne wale kuch fundamental factors hain:

1. **Economic Data Releases**: GDP growth, employment data, inflation rates, aur consumer confidence jaise key economic indicators UK aur US se market ko significant influence kar sakte hain. US se positive data aur UK se negative data bearish trend ko reinforce kar sakti hai, jabke iska ulta bullish reversal ko trigger kar sakta hai.

2. **Central Bank Policies**: Bank of England (BoE) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policies bohot crucial hain. Agar BoE inflation ke bawajood hawkish stance adopt karta hai, to pound ko support mil sakti hai. Agar Fed rate hikes signal karta hai, to dollar strengthen hoga aur GBP/USD neeche jayega.

3. **Brexit Developments**: Official Brexit ke bawajood, UK aur EU ke beech ongoing negotiations aur trade relations market sentiment ko impact karti hain. Significant developments positive ya negative sharp movements ko lead kar sakti hain.

#### Geopolitical Factors

Geopolitical events forex markets mein increased volatility ka sabab bante hain. GBP/USD ko affect karne wale kuch geopolitical factors hain:

1. **US-China Relations**: US aur China ke beech tensions risk-off sentiment ko janam de sakti hain, jo dollar ko safe-haven currency banata hai. Tensions ke escalation se GBP/USD bearish move dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

2. **UK Political Stability**: UK mein political instability, jaise leadership challenges ya policy shifts, pound ki investor confidence ko negatively impact kar sakti hai, jo dollar ke against depreciation ka sabab ban sakta hai.

3. **Global Economic Health**: Global economy ki overall health, jaise COVID-19 pandemic se related events, market risk sentiment ko impact karti hai. Strong global recovery dollar ko weaken kar sakti hai aur pound ko benefit mil sakta hai.

#### Market Sentiment

Market sentiment currency movements ko determine karne mein crucial hoti hai. Sentiment speculative trading, news events, aur overall risk appetite se influence hota hai. Filhal market sentiment GBP/USD ke liye bearish lagti hai, lekin naye information ya market dynamics ke changes se sentiment rapidly shift ho sakti hai.

#### Potential Scenarios

1. **Bearish Continuation**: Agar current bearish trend continue hota hai, to GBP/USD 1.2850 support level ke neeche break kar sakta hai, aur 1.2700 area tak decline dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yeh scenario stronger US economic data ya dovish BoE stance se drive ho sakta hai.

2. **Bullish Reversal**: Reversal tab ho sakta hai agar fundamentals mein shift aata hai, jaise weaker US economic data, more hawkish BoE, ya positive Brexit developments. Iss case mein, GBP/USD 1.3000 resistance level ke upar break kar sakta hai aur higher levels jese 1.3100 ya 1.3200 tak ja sakta hai.

3. **Consolidation**: Pair consolidation phase mein bhi ja sakta hai agar bullish aur bearish factors ka balance bana rahe. Iss scenario mein GBP/USD ek range mein trade karega, jahan key levels 1.2850 aur 1.3000 honge.

#### Conclusion

Jabke current trend GBP/USD ke liye bearish hai, lekin agle dinon mein bade movement ka potential significant hai. Traders ko technical indicators, fundamental data releases, aur geopolitical developments ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake informed aur well-timed decisions le sakein. Forex market ki complexity ko dekhte hue, flexible strategy aur various scenarios ke liye prepared rehna essential hai.

**GBP/USD Ka Downtrend Jari Hai**

GBP/USD pair ka downtrend jari hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, hourly time interval par price cloud ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, Kijun-sen signal line ke neeche, aur Chikou-span line price chart ke neeche hai, aur death cross active hai. Bollinger Bands neeche ki taraf pointed hain, RSI 50 ke neeche move kar raha hai, aur Trend Filter Oscillator red hai, jo bearish sentiment ko dikhata hai. Selling abhi relevant hai. Downtrend ka sabse nazdeek potential target 1.2845 ka support level hai. Jab price key Kijun-sen line ke neeche chalegi, tab selling imperative ban jayegi. Agar price is mark par rollback karti hai, to selling ki relevance kam ho jayegi.

**GBP/USD M-15**

Achha din ho, Abelson!

Zaroor, woh ek certain point tak nahi bhi pohanch sakte, lekin mere liye ulta ho gaya - woh zyada door chale gaye. Mujhe laga ke woh 1.2900 ke neeche ek false breakout karenge aur GBP/USD par zyada dair nahi rukenge. Main ise galti nahi manta, lekin buying conditions thodi broken hain, kyunki ab sirf din ke opening level ko exceed karna local direction mein change ko confirm karne ke liye kafi nahi hai. Ab, iske baad girna aur demand dikhana zaroori hai. Agar minimum rewrite hota hai, to aaj ki buying cancel ho jayegi. Filhal, sab kuch theek chal raha hai, price upar ja rahi hai, aur indicators ke mutabiq growth ke conditions hain. Hourly chart par north ki taraf divergence develop ho rahi hai, aur four-hour chart par major trend resume karne ka waqt hai. Isliye, aaj mujhe ummeed hai ke GBP/USD ki price 1.2950 ke aas-paas hogi.

**British Pound versus US Dollar**

Aapko ek achha din ho! 4-hour chart par linear regression channel ka slope bullish hai, jo buyers ki koshish ki strength ko dikhata hai taake woh 1.95341 ke level tak pohoch sakein. Jab target reach ho jayega, to movement slow ho jayegi. Kamzori ki wajah se volatility barh jayegi, market fade hone lagegi, aur correction ke saath recharge ki zaroorat hogi. Channel ke top ko purchase ke liye consider nahi karna chahiye, aapko correction ke liye 1.94964 tak intezar karna chahiye, jahan se aap purchases par ghoor kar sakte hain. Agar price 1.94964 ke neeche rahti hai, to ek bearish trend dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo market ko neeche push kar sakta hai. Isliye, is background ke against purchases itne interesting nahi hain. Channel ka angle bull ki activity ko dikhata hai, jitna bada angle, utna hi strong bull hai.

Ek strong channel angle aam tor par market news movement ka sign hota hai, jo achi movement ko contribute karta hai. Main linear regression channel on H4, uske zariye moves ko identify karta hoon. H4 ka channel ek sub-channel hai jo ab bullish picture ko complete kar raha hai, uptrend ko highlight kar raha hai. Channels ek hi direction mein move kar rahe hain, aur aap is tool ke zariye bullish mood ko recognize kar sakte hain. Jab chhote period mein signal break hota hai, to price ka 1.94545 level tak girne ka intezar karna chahiye. Wahan se aap apne purchases ko 1.95851 tak review kar sakte hain. Channel ke upper border par, jab bulls wahan hote hain, main buys aur sells dono par neutral hoon, kyunki mere liye yeh ab knives hain. Mera trading principle H4 channel ke direction mein trade karna hai, kyunki yeh mere liye main channel hai. Young channel par, entry ko clarify karna achha hota hai aur strong move ke saath tab act karna chahiye jab correction minimal ho.

**Good Morning.**

Kal mujhe bhi laga tha ke buyers shayad Pound par kuch upar ki formation kar paayenge, lekin kal sellers ne din ko apne naam kiya, aur aaj bhi woh apni positions barhate ja rahe hain. Filhaal, 1.28871 ke level ke upar break aur consolidation ka attempt chal raha hai. Agar yeh ho gaya, to agla target quotes ke liye 1.28862 level hoga. Aur agar hum higher levels ko dekhein, to hum 1.27773 level tak bhi gir sakte hain. Agar buyers ab bhi kuch upar ki formation karna chahte hain, to unhe 1.29417 ke level ke upar break aur consolidate karna hoga, aur agar yeh ho gaya, to aage 1.30123 level tak growth dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

**Pair GBP/USD H4:**

1- 4-hour chart par Pound niche ke band ki taraf nikalne ki koshish kar raha hai, iska touch ban gaya hai, jabke dono bands bahar ki taraf khulne lage hain, jo price ke girne ki possible continuation ka signal deta hai. Is situation mein hum sirf dekhenge ke yeh signal develop hota hai ya nahi. Agar fractals ki baat karein, to price nearest fractal downwards ko break aur consolidate karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh successful hoti hai, to July 9 ka fractal 1.27773 level par open ho jayega. Nearest fractal upwards current price values se door hai, aur agar quotes ke growth direction mein kuch rely karna hai, to naye aur kareeb fractal ka intezar karna zaroori hai.

2- AO indicator negative zone mein barh raha hai, aur yeh clear nahi hai ke pehla peak kab banega, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke price girne ka silsila shayad aur aage barhe. Pound ke growth ke signal ke liye, zaroori hai ke active attenuation zero mark ki taraf dekha jaye.

**H4 Trading Chart on GBP/USD**

Chaliye H4 chart ko dobara dekhte hain - GBP/USD currency pair. Is period mein lagbhag do aur aadhe hafte tak growth dekhne ko mili, aur phir pichle hafte ke darmiyan ek downward correction hua. Mainne pehle hi maan liya tha ke hum shayad pehle hafte ke shuruat mein neeche jayenge, kyunki growth cycle teen waves par based thi, jahan pehli wave lagbhag teesri wave ke size ke barabar thi. Aur aisa laga ki hum hafte ke shuruat mein neeche gaye, lekin rasta mein ek horizontal support level 1.2933 aaya, jisne price ko niche jane nahi diya. Yeh rollback bas chhati wave thi, aur hum paanchvi wave tak pohnch gaye. Paanchvi wave ke khatam hone par MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence ban gayi - jo ek strong sell signal hai. Jab poora growth cycle paanch waves par based hota hai, to yeh signal acche se kaam kar sakta hai, aur aisa hi hua. Hum ne paanchvi wave ke uchaai se niche gire aur sabhi growth ko cover kar diya.

Mainne pehle hi assume kiya tha ki last growth wave ke minimum ke neeche nikalna hoga, aur yeh hua. Support level 1.2933 ke neeche break hua aur uspe successfully hold kiya, aur dheere dheere niche ja rahe hain. Euro ki tarah effective nahi hai, lekin dheere dheere gir raha hai. Ab support zone ke 1.2857 aur 1.2840 levels ke beech mein girne ke high probability hai.

Aaj ke liye kuch news highlight kiye ja sakte hain:
- 15:30 Moscow time: US mein issued building permits, US ka balance of trade in goods, US mein retail trade inventories excluding cars.
- 16:45: US ke manufacturing sector mein business activity index (PMI), US ka composite business activity index (PMI) from S&P Global, US ke services sector mein business activity index (PMI).
- 17:00: US mein new home sales.
- 17:30: US mein crude oil inventories.

**GBP/USD Analysis**

Pichle paanch trading sessions se, pound sterling ka price US dollar ke muqablay mein gir raha hai, aur yeh selling pressure ke saath support level 1.2882 tak pohanch gaya hai, jo do hafton mein sabse kam hai. Is ne psychological resistance level 1.3000 ko bhi chhod diya hai, jo upward shift ke liye madadgar tha. Is performance ke darmiyan, British pound ko lagta hai ke Bank of England shayad interest rates ko zyada der tak ucha rakhe, kyunki sarkar ne inflation ko curb karne ke liye wage increases ko manzoori de di hai.

Bank of England ab bhi 1 August ko interest rates cut kar sakta hai, lekin yeh zyada clear hai ke aage ke mahine mein bohot cautious rehna padega, kyunki nayi sarkar public sector workers ke liye pay rises ko approve kar rahi hai taake inflation ko control kiya ja sake. Is maamle mein, Rachel Reeves ne public sector workers ko higher-than-inflation wage increase dena tay kiya hai aur Conservatives ko kisi bhi zaroori tax increases ka ilzam lagane ki koshish kar rahi hai.

Bank of England ke May forecasts ke mutabiq, overall average economic income growth 2024 mein 5.25% se gir kar 2025 mein 2.25% hone ki umeed hai. Halanki public sector workers sirf 18% employment ko cover karte hain, 5.5% wage increases mushkil lag rahe hain. 2025 forecasts ke saath, private sector mein zyada gehri downward correction ki ummeed nahi hai.

British pound 2024 ke liye best-performing major currency hai, kyunki yeh umeet karti hai ke Britain mein interest rates dusre mulkon ke muqablay mein high rahenge, jo international investors ko superior returns provide karega. Low interest rates wale areas se high interest rates wale areas mein funds ka flow strong hai aur yeh foreign currencies ki value ko low volatility ke waqt drive karta hai. Lekin, pay recommendations ko across the board accept karne ke liye Reeves ko lagbhag £8bn dhoondhna padega, jo existing spending plans se aana padega, is ka matlab hai ke kahin aur cuts ya higher taxes ki zaroorat hogi jo economy ki potential ko ultimately limit kar sakti hai.

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, British pound against US dollar GBP/USD ek descending channel ke formation mein move kar raha hai jo support levels 1.2820 aur 1.2730 ke taraf jaane par mazid strengthen hoga. Dusri taraf, psychological resistance 1.3000 bulls ki trend par control ke liye sabse important rahegi. Currency pair aaj Purchasing Managers’ Index readings for British aur American manufacturing aur services sectors ke announcement se affect hoga, saath hi investor sentiment risk appetite ke baare mein aur central banks ki policies ke future par bhi.

**GBP/USD Price Analysis**

GBP/USD currency pair ki price fluctuations ko analyze karte hain. Recent bounce jo ke 1.3044 se daily chart par dekha gaya, aur bearish candles jo shayad bullish candles se follow ho sakti hain, yeh downtrend ki continuation ka indication dete hain. Current market environment mein pair ko short karna faida mand ho sakta hai. Price decline ki umeed hai, aur yeh 1.2781 level ko break kar sakti hai. Filhal, situation ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai, kyunki pound kisi bhi waqt reverse kar sakta hai aur bullish trend follow kar sakta hai. Proper money management zaroori hai aur open profitable positions ko break-even par adjust karna bhi samajhdari hai. Ek din jahan minimal news thi, decline dekhi gayi lekin itni zyada nahi, support 1.2887 par establish hua, aur phir rebound dekha gaya. 1.2919 par price stall hui, aur bulls momentum gain nahi kar paye, jis se price retreat ho gayi.

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Pound ki price agar news se influence hoti hai to yeh 1.3001 ya usse upar bhi ja sakti hai. Market ne initially creep kiya, jahan bulls momentum maintain nahi kar paaye, jis se rebound aur naya support 1.2887 par establish hua. Price gradually decline kar rahi hai. Kal ki important news, pehle pound ke liye aur phir US dollar ke liye, market ko kisi bhi direction mein drive kar sakti hai. Main selling position mein hoon, aur further decline ki umeed hai, shayad 1.2851 ya usse lower tak. Lekin, pair ne aaj 1.2900 ke neeche break karne mein struggle kiya, briefly level ko pierce kiya aur phir bounce back ho gaya. Significant drop ke liye, price ko 1.2900 ke neeche break karna hoga. Main 1.2800–1.2851 range tak decline ki umeed karta hoon, lekin agar fall accelerate hota hai, to pair 1.2851–1.2871 tak pahunch sakti hai. US statistics is par influence karenge. Agar price 1.2900 ke upar rahti hai, to decline ke chances hain. 1.2800 ke neeche girna stronger bearish trend ko indicate karega, lekin yeh abhi tak visible nahi hai. Growth bina 1.2851 tak dip ke unlikely lagti hai, kyunki pound aam taur par EUR/USD trend ko follow karta hai.

British pound apni taqat dikhate hue US dollar ke muqable mein naya high banane mein kamiyab ho raha hai aur 1.3000 ke mark ke upar test kar raha hai. Yeh uchaayi global interest rate ke changes ke beech aayi hai. September 2023 mein US Federal Reserve ka rate cut dollar ko kamzor kar raha hai, jis se pound currency traders ke liye zyada attractive ban gaya hai. Lekin, Fed ke baad ke bayanon ne dovish picture ko kamzor kar diya hai. Christopher Waller aur Thomas Barkin jaise policymakers ne US labor market ki continued strength ko highlight kiya, jo ke initial optimism ko shadowed kar raha hai.

Dusri taraf, British traders European Central Bank (ECB) ke Thursday ko aane wale policy decision par nazar rakhe hue hain. Market ka expectation hai ke ECB apne rates ko steady rakhegi, lekin agar ECB President Christine Lagarde se hawkish signals milte hain, to pound ko aur zyada gains mil sakte hain. September ke FOMC meeting ko dekhte hue, market ne rate cut ko fully price kiya tha, aur kuch log to zyada aggressive reduction ki bhi umeed kar rahe the. Fed ne to rate cut kiya, lekin unke cautious comments ke baad expectations par paani phir gaya hai.

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British pound ki strength ab dollar ke muqable mein dekhne ko mil rahi hai, aur yeh 1.3000 ke upar test kar raha hai. Yeh increase global interest rate ke shifts ke beech ho raha hai. September 2023 mein US Federal Reserve ka rate cut dollar ko kamzor kar raha hai aur pound ko zyada attractive bana raha hai. Lekin, Fed ke baad ke bayanon ne dovish sentiment ko kamzor kar diya hai, aur US labor market ki strength ko highlight karne se yeh optimism pe asar pada hai.

British traders ko ab ECB ke policy decision ka intezaar hai. Market ko lagta hai ke ECB apne rates ko steady rakhegi, lekin agar Christine Lagarde hawkish signals dete hain, to pound ko further gains mil sakte hain. September ki FOMC meeting ke baad market ne rate cut ko fully price kiya tha, lekin Fed ke cautious comments ke baad expectations par asar pada hai.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pichle haftay ke aakhir mein, price channels ne neeche ki taraf break kiya, jo agle hafte mein mazeed girawat ka ishaara hai. Is mahine ke dauran pair ka ek channel trading mein aaya. Ek channel, jo ke neela hai, upar ki taraf trend dikhata hai aur pichle do mahine ke price movements ko darshata hai, jabke laal channel sirf pichle mahine ki price movements ko represent karta hai aur bearish trend dikhata hai. Shuru mein, price upar chal rahi thi kyunke lower channel lines ne uska support kiya. Laal channel ek din ke liye break hua, lekin positive news ke bawajood US dollar ke liye price ne mazbooti se girawat ki. Price ki girawat ke baad blue channel ka break aur retest hua aur red channel ka break aur retest bhi hua, jo agle hafte ke dauran honay ka mumkinah ishaara hai. Jab price 1.2940 ke level par pohanchay gi, to upar ki taraf correction shuru hogi.

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Agar price seedha girti hai aur 1.2955 ke level ke neeche stable hoti hai to yeh monthly support level 1.2840 tak pohanch sakti hai. Pichle hafte mein oil ke movement mein ascending aur descending waves dekhi gayi. Is mahine mein price movement ko ascending price channels ne dikhaya, jo ke pichle do mahine ke price movement ki direction se milti hai. Price ne upar ki taraf break kiya jab isne monthly resistance level 1.2820 ko break kiya aur price channels ko upar ki taraf tod diya. Channels ke upar thodi stabilization ke baad, price ne wapas trading channels ke andar aa gayi. Friday ke trading mein, oil ki price ne mazbooti se upar break kiya aur channels ko tod diya, lekin resistance level 1.2940 par hit karne ke baad niche aa gayi. Yeh hafte ke aakhir mein sell signal ke saath khatam hua, jo ek pin candle ki formation thi, aur agle hafte 1.2880 ke neeche trading par wapas aa gayi. Isliye, agle hafte chhoti girawat ki umeed hai, jo ke agle hafte ke dauran upar ki taraf wapas aayegi.

GBP/USD Pair Analysis

GBP/USD pair mein, pichle daily range ka minimum update karne ke baad, price ne reversal diya aur north ki taraf strong bullish impulse ke sath barh gayi, jis se bullish reversal candle ka formation hua. Maujooda scenario ko dekhte hue, main yeh puri ummeed kar sakta hoon ke aaj hum sabse nazdeek resistance level ka retest dekh sakte hain, jo meri analysis ke mutabiq 1.27025 par hai, ya shayad 1.27399 ke resistance level par bhi ho sakta hai. In resistance levels ke nazdeek do mumkinah scenarios hain:

**Scenario 1: Reversal aur Downward Movement**

Pehla priority scenario yeh hai ke ek aur reversal candle banti hai aur price wapas niche ki taraf chalti hai. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karunga ke price support level 1.25694 ki taraf move karegi. Agar price is support level ke neeche consolidate hoti hai, to further downward movement ki umeed karunga, jo support level 1.24661 ya support level 1.24506 tak pahunch sakti hai. In support levels ke nazdeek, main trading setup ka intezar karunga taake agla trading direction determine kiya ja sake. Yeh zaroori nahi ke door ke southern targets achieve hon, lekin abhi ke liye main is possibility ko nahi dekh raha kyunke koi clear path nazar nahi aa raha.

**Scenario 2: Upward Movement ka Jaari Rehna**

Alternative scenario yeh hoga agar price resistance level 1.27025 ya resistance level 1.27399 ko test karne ke baad, is level ke upar consolidate hoti hai aur north ki taraf apna movement jaari rakhti hai. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karunga ke price resistance level 1.28604 ya resistance level 1.28938 ki taraf move karegi. In resistance levels ke nazdeek, main southern signals dekhunga, yeh expect karte hue ke upward price movement ka reversal ho sakta hai.

**Conclusion**

Chhoti si summary ke liye, filhal main kuch khaas interesting local movements nahi dekh raha. Overall, mujhe lagta hai ke price aaj nazdeek ke resistance levels ka retest karegi, aur phir main southern signals ka intezar karunga, expect karte hue ke bearish trend jaari rahega.

GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein limited movement dikhayi hai, jiska trading range lagbhag 40 pips tak ka raha. Abhi price 1.2930 par hai, aur pair ne thodi decline ke bawajood key support level 1.2900 ke upar banaye rakha hai. Yeh resilience yeh dikhata hai ke GBP/USD ko momentum gain karne mein mushkil aa rahi hai, aur sellers market sentiment ko control mein rakhe hue hain.

H1 timeframe par technical analysis se yeh pata chalta hai ke support level 1.2900 ko test karne ke bawajood, GBP/USD recovery ke signs dikhata hai. Is support level ke aas-paas candlestick formations double bottom pattern formation ki sambhavnayein dikhati hain, jo resistance 1.2935 ke upar breakout par confirm ho sakti hain. Agar yeh resistance breach nahi hota, to pair sideways movement mein reh sakta hai, kyunki yeh ek demand area mein hai jahan buying interest ko sustain kiya ja sakta hai.

Ichimoku indicator ke sath analysis karna maujooda market conditions mein challenging hai jo subdued activity se bhari hui hai. Indicator ke signals aksar zyada volatile markets mein clear hote hain lekin abhi yeh multiple intersections dikhate hain bina kisi clear trend direction ke. Lekin, Kijun Sen line ke upar recent break GBP/USD ke liye tentative bullish signal dikhata hai, jiska further confirmation additional price action ke baad mil sakta hai.

Is waqt stochastic oscillator 80 level ke kareeb approaching overbought conditions dikhata hai. Iske bawajood, stochastic ka upward trajectory GBP/USD ke potential upward movement ke liye ongoing support dikhata hai. Traders ko stochastic ke 80 tak pahunchne par caution exercise karni chahiye, kyunki yeh aksar price reversal se pehle hota hai, khaaskar sideways markets mein jahan aise indicators false starts signal kar sakte hain.

Aage dekhte hue, GBP/USD ka outlook ek potential uptrend ke taraf lean karta hai, jo resistance levels ko break karne aur bullish momentum ko technical indicators ke support se maintain karne par depend karta hai. Recent declines ke baad significant corrections ki absence yeh imply karti hai ke pair ke upward potential mein underlying strength hai, lekin market conditions economic developments aur broader geopolitical factors ke influence ko dekhte hue sensitive rahenge jo British pound aur US dollar exchange rates ko affect karte hain.