Eur/usd

Jumeraat ko Euro (EUR) US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf kamzor ho gaya, jis se EUR/USD jodi kareeb 1.0870 ke aas paas gir gayi. Is giravat ka asal sabab kai mamlat the. Sab se pehle, European Central Bank (ECB) ne apne ahem interest rate ko beghair tabdeeliyon ke rakha aur us ke President, Christine Lagarde, ne mustaqbil mein interest rate cuts ki mumkinat ki ishara di. ECB ki rukh e saaf ne Euro ki manpasandgi ko kamzor kar diya. Is ke ilawa, ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau ke comments ne interest rate cuts ki umeedon ko mazeed taqat di.

Dosri taraf, US Dollar ne aik numaya punhji ki, jis ko Donald Trump ke aane wale Amreeki presidential intikhabat jeetne ke barhte hue khayalat ne sath diya. Yeh barhne wali darkhwast safe-haven Dollar ko mazboot ki aur EUR/USD jodi par neechayi dabao dala. ECB ne tawajjo ko rakhte hue rates ko qaim rakhne ki ummeed thi aur September ke rate faisla ko "wide open" aur data par munhasar rakha. EUR/USD 1.09 ke neeche gir gaya. Agar data ECB President Christine Lagarde ki taraf se "disinflationary process" ko tasdeeq karta hai, to mazeed cuts zaroori ho sakte hain, aur market ki tawaqo September ke liye un ke intezam se bhi juda hui hain.

Technically, jodi ke short-term outlook mein bearish rukh hai, jahan 50-period moving average jo 1.0870 par hai, aik ahem support level ke tor par kaam karta hai. Agar yeh level mazbooti se toota, to mazeed giravat 1.0850 ilaqe ki taraf mutawajjah ho sakti hai. Magar kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke halqi kamzori ka akhir shayad nazdeek hai, jahan 1.0945 level aik ahem support zone ko mark karta hai.



Aane wale arse mein, EUR/USD jodi ko kamzor momentum ke saath trade kiya ja raha hai. Agar 1.0900 ke neeche sathit harkat hoti hai, to tawajjo neeche ki taraf shift ho sakti hai. Magar jab tak yeh level qaim hai, jodi ke overall bullish trend barqarar rehne ki ummeed hai. Overall, Euro ke karname ECB ki monetary policy stance aur US Dollar ki mazbooti par munhasir hote hain, jahan US Dollar me izafa siyasati ghair yaqeeniyon se faida utha raha hai.

EUR/USD H4 Chart

Market is mukhtalif es area ko barkarar rakne ki tarjeeh deta hai, aur agar qeemat 1.0808 ke aakhri rukh par chali jaye to bullish tehreek jari reh sakti hai. RSI indicator 150 ilaqe se ooper ja raha hai, jis se ishara milta hai ke agar qeemat support ko toorna nahi karti, to aane wale arse mein barhne ki tawaqo hai. Chart mein istemal hone wale 50-day SMA (green), 100-day SMA (blue), aur 100-day SMA (red) hain. Agar pehli rukawat ki imtiaz 1.0950 consolidation level ko paar karti hai, to bullish log 1.0860-1.0980 range ke oopar aik ahem swing ke liye nishandahi kar sakte hain. Short-term investors ko US session ke 1.0810-1.0890 trading range ke andar tajarbat karne ka dhang istemal karna chahiye, jahan 1.0810 support level aik ahem factor hai. Is support se aane wala khareedari dabao qeemat ko dobara replacement area ki taraf pohancha sakta hai. H4 time frame ke liye RSI indicator, jo 50 regions ke neeche ja raha hai, ishara deta hai ke mazeed giravat mumkin hai. Magar agar 1.0810 ke support ko toorna na ho, to qeemat phir se barh sakti hai aur 100-day SMA ko 1.0895 ke resistance par nishandahi kar sakti hai.



Somvar tak, London session ki shuruaat se pehle, qeemat ne is area ko dobara azmana tha lekin aakhir kar 1.0860 ke ooper ki bulandiyon tak pohnchi, aur 1.0960 ke aas paas band ho gayi. Yeh candlestick formation ishara deti hai ke 1.0800 par ahem support mazbooti se qaim hai, jo ek teen kali kauwe candle pattern ke baad bhi qeemat mein izafa mein madadgar hai. Market participants ne koshish ki ke Bullish Harami pattern banayen lekin nakam rahe. Magar peechli do candles ne 1.0965 ke aas paas bulandi ki zone banayi hai. Agar EUR/USD is zone ko paar kar leti hai, to is se zyada taqatwar khareedari ka ishara hai. Agle hafte ki qeemat ki tawaqo sakht hai, jahan buyers 1.0786 ke area ko test kar sakte hain, jahan 100 SMA lines mojood hain. Stochastic oscillator aur panch-period smoothed moving average ab bhi ooper ki taraf point kar rahe hain, jis se aaj ya agle hafte Bollinger band ka bullish breakout hone ki tawaqo hai.

EURUSD currency pair, jo ke 15-minute (M15) timeframe par dekhi ja rahi hai, ek umda signal pesh karti hai, jis par mukammal tajziyah zaroori hai. Jabke EURUSD ke daam ne resistance level ko paar kar diya hai, yeh market mein khareedari karne walon ki hukoomat ka ishara deta hai. Halqi sa asar mein, EURUSD ka kam az kam darj shuda qeemat 1.08241 hai, jo pehle ke 1.0856 ke munasib se ooncha hai. Yeh upri harkat taizi se barhne ka ishara deta hai, jis mein khareedari ke liye mumkin mauqe hain.

Bullish trend ke bawajood, EURUSD ki upar ki harkat ko mooli supply levels ne kuch had tak mehdood kiya hai. Abhi, EURUSD ki qeemat upri Bollinger band ke qareeb hai, jo mad-e-nazar band ke taraf tashweesh ka ishara deta hai. Is ke ilawa, EURUSD ki qeemat mein barhti hui mazeed aur ahem izafa ne isay overbought territory mein daakhil kar diya hai. Is baat ko stochastic oscillator ki roshni mein numayan kiya gaya hai, jo ab 80 ke ooper parh raha hai. Stochastic oscillator ke asoolon ke mutabiq, is surat-e-haal mein aksar giravat ki pehle ishara hoti hai, jahan oscillator ko overbought level 20 ki taraf tajweez ki jati hai.

Bollinger Bands aur stochastic oscillator ke tajziyah se, yeh maloom hota hai ke qareebi doraan mein EURUSD ki qeemat mein aik islahi harkat mumkin hai. Bollinger Bands, jo rukh e bulandiyat aur qeemat ka amal darust karte hain, ishara dete hain ke jab bhi qeemat upri band tak pohanchti hai, to amoman isay darust karte hain, ya'ni mad-e-nazar band ke taraf mudawamat hoti hai.

In technical indicators ke mutabiq, traders ko EURUSD ki qeemat ke mojooda buland darjoo se temporary pullback ya islahi harkat ki tawaqo rakhni chahiye. Aise islahi harkatain overbought halaat ke baad aam hain, jo market ko mustehkam aur tawanai dene ka moqa deti hain.




Akhri alaamat ke mutabiq, jabke EURUSD pair mein taizi se upar ki harkat hai aur market mein khareedari ka dominion hai, lekin upri Bollinger band ke qareebi mojoodgi aur high stochastic oscillator reading tawajjo aur ihtiyat ki zaroorat ko ishara karte hain. Traders ko in technical signals ke mutabiq mojooda buland darjoo se islahi giravat ke moqa par khareedari karne ka ghor o fikr karna chahiye.

Euro ko US Dollar ke khilaf chotaiye (slump) hui thi Mangalwar ko, jab ke iski qeemat mazboot 3% gir gai thi Jumeraat ko aane wale aham maqami data ke intezaar mein. Investors European Union aur United States se dono Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) ke baray mein tafteesh mein jutay huay hain, apne apne mulkon ki arzi maqasid ke baray mein pata lagane ki koshish kar rahe hain. European PMI for Services ka intezar hai ke yeh July mein thora sa barh kar 53.0 par aaye ga, jo ke June mein 52.8 tha. Lekin doosri taraf, United States PMI for manufacturing ki umeed hai ke yeh thori si kamzori ke saath 54.4 par gire ga, jo ke pichle mahine 55.3 tha. Global markets Federal Reserve ke interest rates ko September mein kam karne par bohat zyada mael hain. Is tawaqo ko US economic indicators ki qareebi nazarbandi se hosla afzai milti hai, jahan kisi bhi nishaan se umeed hai ke rate cut ho. Abhi, market mein 100% chance hai ke Federal Reserve 18 September ke apne meeting mein kam se kam aik quarter-point tak interest rates ko kam kare ga.



Aanay wale haftay mein mazeed data releases hain jo currency markets par bari asar dalne ke qabil hain. United States ke GDP figures second quarter ke liye Jumeraat ko jari kiye jayein ge, jahan umeed hai ke pichle quarter ke 1.4% se 1.9% tak barh jayein ge. Is ke ilawa, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ke zariye nafsa nafsi ke darjaat-e-moharrikat ka ailaan Jumma ko kiya jaye ga. Is data point se umeed hai ke mahina June tak 2.6% se 2.5% tak inflation mein halki giravat dekhai degi. Euro ki pehli nuqsaanat ne Mangalwar ko Euro/USD pair ko naye lows tak 1.0850 ke qareeb le gaya. Investors umeedwar hain ke aham data releases se pehle Euro ko support mil jaye ga. Euro ne apne haal ki un tamam izafay ko 1.0948 ke peechay chor diya hai. 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) abhi tak qaim hai, lekin haftay ki giravat numayan karte hain jab ke khareedari dabao kam hota ja raha hai.

Assalam-o-Alaikum sabhi colleagues! Kal maine yeh umid ki thi ke pair sab se pehle giray ga, phir 1.0840 se ooper uthay ga. Asal mein, hum ne pehle Merlin ballet ka pehla hissa poora kar liya hai. Ab mujhe un se doosra hissa dene ka intezar hai. Abhi tak hum ne ooper nahi uthaya hai. Lekin sab se ahem cheez yeh hai ke jab tak consolidation hai, woh 1.0840 se nichay nahi jayein ge. Baqi - hum market ko jaldi nahi karain ge. Usko saans lenay, sochnay aur apnay aap ko adjust karne ka waqt chahiye.

Toh, aaj daily chart par wave technique ke mutabiq kya dekha ja sakta hai?

- December se main yahan ek inclined development channel draw kar raha hoon. Ab woh iske upper border - 1.0840 level tak gir raha hai. Nazariyat ke mutabiq, woh ya toh bahar nikal kar utray ga aur north ki taraf chalay ga, ya phir - channel mein khincha jayega. Aur phir - sab kuch normal ho jayega.

- MA100 almost floor ke parallel space mein kaam kar raha hai, jo is haftay flat sentiment ka nishan hai.

- MA18 bohat bullish tareeqay se kaam kar raha hai. Trend apni tape ko north ki taraf khench raha hai, 30 degree ke trend angle ke saath - aik bullish sentiment ka ishaarah currency ke din par.

- Nichimoku Kinko Hyo bhi bull ke saath lag raha hai: yeh bullish rangon mein paint hai, aur forecasting point of view se yeh bears ki taraf mudi, aur baad mein bulls ki taraf laut aayi. Yeh north ki taraf move kar raha hai, trend se zyada numayan.



- Lightweight Stochastic bearish divergence se neeche mud gaya hai aur oversold area se bahar chala gaya hai, jo keh raha hai ke yeh instrument tayyar ho sakta hai uthnay ke liye.

- Rosa moving averages May se overbought area mein settlement kar rahi hain.

- Alag configurations mein dono MACDs bullish wave par khail rahe hain.

Abhi tak sab kuch northward uthne ki taraf trend kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ka Takneeki Tahlil
Pichli trading week mein euro ne apni izafa ki koshish ki lekin 1.0926 ke muqablay mein rukawat ka samna kiya. Is rukawat ko paar nahi kar saka, is liye keemat ne wapas rebound kiya aur girne ka aaghaz kiya, haftay ke ibtedai darjat tak wapas aagaya. Is natijay mein, mazeed izafa ka mansooba kabhi haqeeqat mein tabdeel nahi hua aur yeh barqarar hai. Isi waqt, keemat ka chart super-trending red zone mein move karna shuru karta hai, jis se zahir hota hai ke forokhton ki koshish hai ke wo wapas layen.

Takneeki tahlil ke nazaray se aaj, 4-hour chart par gehri nazar se dekha jaye to pair regular taur par ek ascending price channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, jabke simple moving average ka jari rakhna musbat tasalli faraham kar raha hai. Is tarah, agar intraday trading 1.0900 ke support ke oopar qaim rehti hai aur 1.0870 ke level ke oopar rahne ke sath 1.0950 ke target tak pohanchti hai, to uptrend dobara shuru hone ki ummeed hai, aur is level ke upar breakthrough EUR/USD pair ke faide ko mazboot karne ka trigger hoga jo safar ka rasta kholta hai. Niche ki taraf, agar trading stable 1.0870 ke nichle hisse ke andar hai, to pair ko manfi dabao ke neeche rakh diya jata hai taakey 1.0840, jise 23.60% Fibonacci retracement darj kar raha hai, ko dobara test kiya jaye. Neeche diye gaye chart ko dekhen:



Mausam ki haalat mein, pair mukhtalif rukh par trade kar raha hai aur har haftay neutral rehta hai. Ahem support areas abhi tak test nahi kiye gaye hain aur barqarar hain, jis se oopri manba ke mustaqbil ki satha ki tasdeeq hoti hai. Lekin mojooda bearish koshish yeh ishara deti hai ke 1.0837 tak pohanchne ki buland imkanaat hain, jo asal support area ki hudood hain. Agar yeh area dobara test kiya jata hai, to agle bounce se mazeed upar ki mauqaat faraham ho sakti hain, jin mein 1.1033 aur 1.1121 ke darmiyan ilaqe shamil hain.

Agar support tor diya jaye aur keemat 1.0763 pivot level ke nichle gir jaye, to mojooda manzar mansookh ho jayega.

Is haftay ke trading ke shuruaat mein, euro aur US dollar ke darmiyan tabdeeli dar nahi rahi, aur exchange rate (EUR/USD) 1.0885 ke aas paas qaaim hai, pichle haftay 1.094 dollars ke urooj ke baad, jo char mahino ka buland tareen level tha. President Joe Biden ne 2024 mein dobara intekhabat ki darkhwast dene ka faisla kiya hone ke bawajood, euro/dollar ke rate mein kami barkarar rahi hai. Ab investors samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain ke is faislay ke financial markets aur global macroeconomic policies par kya asar hoga.

Dusray jhan, European Central Bank ne apni policies mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ke baghair qaim rahi hai, jahan President Christine Lagarde ne is saal 12 September ke mutaliq agle faislay par "naqabil e itminan" ka izhar kiya hai. Is haftay, Eurozone, Germany, aur France ke liye July ki ibtedai PMI data jaari kiya jayega, jise tajarbat ke mutabiq sanat mein dhire dhire kami aur khidmat sektor mein mazeed izafa ki tawaqo ki ja rahi hai. Is ke ilawa, Eurozone mein consumer confidence February 2022 se sab se buland darjay tak pohanchne ka imkan hai. Germany ke GfK Consumer Climate Index aur Ifo Business Climate Index se behtar readings ki umeed bhi hai.

Is haftay euro US policies, Eurozone PMIs, aur US PCE inflation ke asar mein izafa dekh sakta hai. Lekin ek analyst ne note kiya ke haal hi mein kami ki wajah se euro/dollar exchange rate classic "bull trap" mein phans sakta hai, jo mazeed kamzori ki khatraat ko ishara karta hai. EUR/USD ke takneeki pahluon par gehri nazar dalne se pehle, President Joe Biden ke November ke aane wale intekhabat ke hawale se kuch ahem bunyadi tajarbat ko gaur karna zaroori hai.

"Trump trade," jo amuman US dollar ke liye faidamand samjha jata hai, Biden ke faislay ke baad kamzor ho sakta hai. Naib President Kamala Harris unki jaga le sakti hain, jinhe umooman Trump ke mukablay mein intekhabat mein behtar imkanat di ja rahi hain. Aam taur par, jo bhi ummidon se jura tha jo Trump ke presidency se juri thi, agar Trump ke jeetne ke imkanat kam ho jayein to US dollar ke sath wabasta koi bhi musbat flow ulat bhi sakte hain.



Investors 30 se zyada investment banks se euro ke mukablay dollar ke maamlay mein aane wale September ke qareeb aur saal ke aakhri mahine tak kahan pohnch sakta hai, is par tawajjo se kaam lenge.

EUR/USD Market Outlook

Sab ko salaam aur subha bakhair!

EUR/USD ke bechne walon ne qareeban 1.0862 zone tak pohanch gaye thay. Kyun ke Flash manufacturing aur Service PMI data baad mein jaari hoga. Isliye, market ka momentum bechne walon ya khareedne walon ke haqq mein badal sakta hai. EUR/USD ke abhi ke market sentiment mein bechne walon ke liye taqatwar support hai, kyun ke haal hi ke trends mein ek numaya shift dekhne ko mil raha hai jo bearish territory ki taraf momentum ko indicate karta hai. Pichle trading sessions mein, bechne walon ne qata'i tor par khareedne walon ko peechay chor diya hai, jis se ek pattern sthapit hua hai jo agle ghanton mein jari rehne ka imkan hai. Yeh trend bechne walon ki maujooda taqat ko sabit karta hai, jo ke aane wale US trading session mein mazeed izafa ho sakta hai.

Is natijay mein, a strategic approach yeh hai ke 30 pips ka conservativ take-profit target set kiya jaye, sath hi 15 pips ki prudent stop loss bhi set ki jaye taake short-term trading plans ke inherent risks ko kam kiya ja sake. US dollar se mutaliq news events ki wide range baad mein EUR/USD market mein volatility laa sakti hai, jaise ke US Flash aur Unemployment rate jo high volatile news events hote hain. Is ke alawa, market ki volatile nature ko madde nazar rakhte hue stop-loss orders ka istemal judiciously karna ahem hai, jahan fluctuations jaldi se established trends ko badal sakte hain.



Is tarah, caution exercise karna aur ek carefully considered stop-loss strategy implement karna trading environments mein maujood uncertainties ko handle karne ke liye pivotal hai. Mukhtasar mein, abhi ke EUR/USD market outlook bechne walon ke haqq mein taqatwar tarjih rakhta hai, jo ek mauqaa pesh karta hai ke focused short-term target ke saath sell positions shuru ki ja sakti hain. Umeed hai ke bechne walon ka momentum jari rahega aur aane wale trading sessions mein crucial support levels ko breach kar sakein ge, jo traders ke liye ek lucrative opportunity present karta hai jo prevailing market dynamics se faida uthana chahte hain. Current market sentiment ko zaroor follow karen aur EUR/USD ke price 1.0842 zone ko cross kar sakta hai baad mein.

Aap sab ko munafa bhara trading day guzarne ki duaon ke saath!

Hello. Aaj, khareedne walon ne Euro ki keemat ko mazeed bulandi ki taraf le jane ki koshish ki, lekin abhi tak unka subah ki koshish ruk gayi hai aur keemat ko trading ki ibtedai darjaton par wapas la diya gaya hai. Aam tor par, agle izafa ke liye, khareedne walon ko 1.09016 ke level ko tor kar us par mazbooti se jamana hoga, agar unhe is kaam mein kamyabi milti hai to mazeed keemat mein izafa 1.09474 ke level tak ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Doosri taraf, bechne walon ko 1.08708 ke level ko tor kar us par mazbooti se jamana hoga taake neechay ki taraf movement develop ho sake, agar unhe is kaam mein kamyabi milti hai to raasta 1.08045 ke level ki taraf khul jayega. Aaj market mein koi khaas ahem khabar nahi hai, hum dobara sideways trend mein khare ho sakte hain, jaisa ke kal tha.

Pair EURUSD M30:

1 - Kal Euro par khareedne ke liye dakhil hone ke liye entry point 1.08963 ke level se tha, keemat is level ke qareeb aayi, lekin us ne is ko tor kar us par mazbooti se jamaya nahi.

2 - Agar hum bands ki situation ki baat karen to keemat bands ki taraf se exit banane ki koshish kar rahi hai, aur tajziye ke liye ek quality signal pane ke liye keemat ke nichle band se bahar ane ka intezar karne ke liye keemat ko dekhna zaroori hai, aur phir yeh dekhna ke bands kya bahar khulte hain ya koi reaction nahi hota.

3 - AO indicator zero mark ke qareeb hai aur us se koi signals nahi mil sakte. Is surat-e-haal mein, is keemat mein positive ya negative zone mein active izafa ka intezar karna zaroori hai, jo humein keemat ke is rukh ki taraf liye izafa ke baray mein baat karne ki ijazat dega.

4 - Khareedne ke liye dakhil hone ka entry point 1.08863 ke level se liya ja sakta hai, breakout aur mazbooti se jamane par keemat mein izafa ki umeed 1.09306 aur 1.09576 ke marks tak ki ja sakti hai.



5 - Bechne ke liye dakhil hone ka level 1.08706 se liya ja sakta hai, keemat mein girawat ki umeed 1.08328 aur 1.08052 ke marks tak ki ja sakti hai.

EUR/USD Currency Pair ki Mazbooti

EUR/USD currency pair ab sarfeen ke liye bulandi par qaim hai, jabke Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) ko tor kar ooper pohanch gaya hai. 4 June ko momentum mein izafa ke baad, pair ne izafa jari rakha hai, naye urooj tak pohanch kar mazboot uptrend ki alamat de raha hai. Yeh izafa ne December 2023 se qaim rahne wale downtrend se numaya mukhalifat ki hai. Oscillators abhi bhi ishara kar rahe hain ke bullish forces mazboot ho rahe hain, jis se yeh zahir hota hai ke pair qareebi muddat mein apne ooperi manzil ko jari rakhe ga.

Kai factors is maqsad mein madadgar hain. Pehle to, eurozone ki maeeshat ke data ne sudhaar ke isharon ko zahir kiya hai, jahan GDP ki shara'it aur rozgar ke figures tawaqo ke mawafiq se behtar hain. Is ne investors ki itminan ko mazeed mazboot kiya hai, jis se currency ki darkhwast mein izafa hua hai. Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ki monetary policy stance doosre major central banks ke mukablay relatively hawkish rahi hai, jo euro ki taqat ko mazeed taqwiyat deta hai.

Doosri taraf, US dollar ko kuch mushkilat ka saamna hai. Jab Federal Reserve ne tight monetary policy ka bias qaim rakha hai, market participants ab US maeeshat ke manazir se mutasir hone ke ahtemam se rate hikes ke dande ki tezi ko kam hone ke imkanat ko qeemat lagane lage hain. Haal ki data releases, jin mein tawaqo se kam mehdood inflation numbers aur mix employment reports shamil hain, ne is ehsas ko mazeed taqwiyat di hai. Is natijay mein, ECB aur Federal Reserve ke monetary policy expectations mein izafa ne EUR/USD pair ko ooper ki taraf daurne mein kirdar ada kiya hai.

Takneeki tahlil bhi EUR/USD ke liye bullish outlook ko support karti hai. 50-day aur 200-day SMAs ko tor kar pair ne mazboot support base qaim ki hai, jis se zahir hota hai ke bullish forces qaboo mein hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish territory mein hai, jo mazboot ooperi raftar ko numayan karta hai. Is ke ilawa, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram positive territory mein hai, jahan MACD line signal line se ooper hai, jo bullish trend ko mazeed tasdeeq deta hai.

Maqsad ke husool ke hawale se agle key resistance level ko 1.1200 ke aas paas dekha jaye ga, jo psychological barrier ke sath sath is saal ke pehle high ki bhi alamat hai. Is level ko torne se mazeed izafa 1.1300 aur 1.1400 ke marks tak ki ummid hai. Mutasir hone ke bajaaye, agar pair apni ooperi raftar ko barqarar nahi rakh paye, to pehle support levels 1.1000 aur 1.0950 ke aas paas milne ki ummid hai, jo SMAs aur pehle consolidation zones ke sath milte hain.



Mukhtasar mein, EUR/USD currency pair ek mazboot bullish trend ka saamna kar raha hai jise eurozone ki musbat maeeshati data, ECB aur Federal Reserve ke mukhtalif monetary policy expectations aur faide mand technical indicators ne support kiya hai. Forex market mein hamesha khatre aur mukhalifat ka imkan hota hai, lekin maujooda outlook yeh ishara deta hai ke pair qareebi muddat mein mazeed izafa jari rakhe ga.

Is hafte ke trading ke shuru mein, euro ke maqbul dollar ke muqablay (EUR/USD) ki keemat 1.0885 ke qareeb qaim rahi, jo ke pichle haftay recorded ki gayi 1.094 dollars ke resistance level se girawat ki thi, jo ke chaar mahino ka highest level tha. Euro/dollar ke qeemat ne dollar ki kamzori ke baad bhi nichay ki taraf qaim rahi, jab Joe Biden ne 2024 ke intekhabat se withdraw hone ka faisla kiya.

Ab investors is ka asar arzi market aur global monetary policy par jaan'ne ki koshish kar rahe hain. European Central Bank ne apni policy ko haal hi mein be-kharabi ke sath chora hai, jahan un ki President Christine Lagarde ne zahir kiya ke agle faislay par 12 September ko "widespread" taur par khuli dor hai. Is hafte Eurozone, Germany aur France ke July ke PMI data ki preliminary jari hogi, jahan se ummeeden hain ke manufacturing mein slow contraction aur services sector mein mazeed izafa hoga. Is ke sath hi, Eurozone mein consumer confidence February 2022 se highest level tak pohanchne ki ummeed hai. Germany mein GfK Consumer Climate Index aur Ifo Business Climate Index mein bhi sudharatein anay wali hain.

Euro ki keemat US politics, Eurozone PMIs aur US PCE inflation ki dominance wali ek hafte mein recover ho sakti hai. Lekin ek analyst ne ishaara kiya hai ke haal hi ki girawat yeh ishara de sakti hai ke euro/dollar exchange rate ne ek classic "bull trap" mein gir jaane ka khatra hai, aur further weakness ka khatra hai. Jab tak hum EUR/USD ke takneeki pahluon mein dakhil hone se pehle US President Joe Biden ke emerging ke hawale se kuch ahem fundamental developments ko na dekhein.

"Trump trade" - jo amuman US dollar ko support karne ke liye maqbul samjha jata hai - Biden ke Sunday ke announcement ke baad kamzor ho sakta hai. Un ke ticket par un ke replacement ke taur par Vice President Kamala Harris hone ki ummeed hai, jiske polls ke mutabiq Trump ko maat dene ke zyada chances hain. Aam tor par, US dollar ke saath juri hui koi bhi positive flows jo Trump ke presidency ke expectations se judi hui thin, agar un ke jeetne ke chances yahan se kamzor ho jaayein to reverse ho sakte hain.



Zyada se zyada 30 investment banks se dekhein ke woh September tak aur saal ke end tak euro ko dollar ke muqablay mein kahan dekhte hain. Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, bulls abhi bhi EUR/USD ki keemat ko 1.1000 ke psychological resistance ke taraf le jane ke liye aur motivation dhoondh rahe hain, jo ke upward trend mein mazeed taqwiyat ke liye ahem sabit hua hai. Doosri taraf, isi samay ke doran, 1.0820 aur 1.0765 ke support levels mojood upward path ke liye ek khatra ban sakte hain. Euro aaj kisi ahem maeeshati data ka intezaar nahi kar raha hai, aur United States se existing American home sales aur Richmond Industrial Index ke reading ke ilawa central bank officials aur American elections ke course ke koi bhi indications jari honge.

H4 timeframe par, hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price changes ka analysis karenge. Powell ne ECB forum par baat ki aur usual ke mutabiq US dollar ko "drop" kar diya, halaan ke Lagarde ne unse pehle bola aur euro ko thoda support kiya. Powell ne koi nayi baat nahi ki, phir bhi EUR/USD ne 1.0739 ka level break kar liya aur resistance 1.0749 ke kareeb hai. Critical resistance level EMA-200 ke zariye mark kiya gaya hai jo 1.0759 par hai. Yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke market ne Powell ke comments par aise react kyun kiya, kyunki unka kuch bhi groundbreaking nahi tha. Unhone yeh mention kiya ke labor market abhi bhi strong hai, inflation 2% ke qareeb nahi hai, aur kuch disinflation ke asar bhi hain. Lagarde ne bhi comment kiya ke halaan ke inflation sahi direction mein move kar rahi hai, lekin abhi yeh kehna jaldi hoga ke yeh stable rahegi. Powell ne emphasize kiya ke Fed apne decisions mein jaldi nahi karegi aur ke US aur Europe mein inflation ka masla alag hai jo alag approaches require karta hai. Unke comments ke bawajood, market US dollar ko buy karne mein hesitate kar rahi hai.

Siyasi developments ne Europe mein market sentiment ko kaafi influence kiya hai, khaaskar European parliamentary elections ne jo Euro mein confidence ko dent kiya hai. France ka faisla apni parliament ko dissolve karna aur snap elections karwana, jo President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament elections mein ek substantial defeat ke baad call kiya, ne market uncertainty ko barhawa diya hai. Marine Le Pen, jo National Rally se ek right-leaning conservative politician hain, ke Macron ko replace karne ki prospect ne financial markets ko stir kiya hai. Le Pen ka platform, jo steep tax cuts, retirement age kam karna, aur stringent immigration controls shamil karta hai, France mein kaafi popular ho gaya hai.

Le Pen ki victory ka potential European financial markets mein apprehension cause kar raha hai. Unki policies significant fiscal challenges impose kar sakti hain jabke European economic indicators pehle hi underperform kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) persistent inflation issues ke wajeh se apni rate cuts implement karne ki ability mein constrained hai.

EUR/USD Market Forecast

Asalam-o-Alaikum aur Subah Bakhair Sab Ko!

Kal EUR/USD market ne 1.0914 ka support zone cross kiya, jo market dynamics mein ek aham tabdeeli ka ishara hai jo abhi sellers ke haq mein hai. Support level ke neeche jaane se ye baat saaf hoti hai ke sellers ab control mein hain aur market ko neeche le jaa rahe hain, jiski wajah se downward pressure mein izafa ho raha hai. Iss waqt buyers ke liye zyada mauqe nahi hain, lekin agar aap abhi bhi buy karne ka soch rahe hain, to choti muddat ke liye gains ka target rakhna behtar hoga.

Jis tarah se recent movement hui hai, ye mumkin hai ke EUR/USD price agle haftay 1.0900 ke aham psychological border ko cross kare aur 1.0880 ke zone ke aas paas stabilize ho jaye. Ye potential consolidation zone buyers ke liye ek mauqa ho sakta hai ke wo short-term trades karen, chote aur jaldi wale profits ke liye zami pe focus karein, bajaye bade upward moves ka intizar karne ke.

Agle haftay ke liye short targets ke sath trading ek samajhdari ki strategy ho sakti hai buyers ke liye. Choti upward corrections iss bearish momentum mein kamzor aur mukhtasir ho sakti hain, isliye traders ko apni expectations aur strategies ko accordingly adjust karna zaroori hoga. Chote gains par focus karte hue aur jaldi exit ke liye tayar rehkar, buyers current market conditions ko navigate kar sakte hain baghair zyadati risk liye.

Overall sentiment bearish hai aur sellers ka upper hand hai, lekin agar aap disciplined aur strategic trading karein to abhi bhi mauqe mil sakte hain. Aakhir mein, jahan sellers ki dominance ek ehtiyaati approach ko suggest karti hai, wahan buyers jo short-term opportunities par jaldi action lete hain wo agle dinon mein kamyabi hasil kar sakte hain. 1.0900 aur 1.0880 levels ke aas paas price action par qareebi nazar rakhna ahem hoga, taake yeh opportunities pehchan kar market mein informed trading decisions liye ja sakein.




Weekend Mubarak ho, aur aapka hafta successful rahe!

EUR/USD pair is waqt ek ahem marhale par hai, jo un logon ke liye ek significant trading opportunity pesh kar raha hai jo iski movements ko ghour se dekh rahe hain. Traders jo market shifts ka faida uthana chahte hain, unki nazar kuch ahem levels par hai jahan woh apni strategies ko anjaam de sakte hain. Mera primary focus yeh hai ke main EUR/USD ko ek specific price level tak pohanchne doon pehle ke kisi bhi selling opportunity par ghor karoon. Woh targeted price level jahan main potential sell trades ke liye dekh raha hoon, current trading channel ka upper boundary hai, jo 1.0830 par hai. Is strategy ka maqsad yeh hai ke upper boundary aksar aik ceiling ka kaam karti hai, jo currency pair ke upward momentum ko rokti hai aur yeh selling ka moqa faraham karti hai. Agar main 1.0730 par sell position enter karta hoon, toh mera target trading channel ka lower boundary hoga, jo ke 1.0780 par hai. Yeh level aik support point ka kaam karega jahan price temporary floor dhoond sakti hai, jo ke downward movement mein ek pause ya reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai. In do levels ke darmiyan distance ek viable profit-taking range pesh karta hai, khas tor par agar market apni established channel boundaries ka ehtaram karti hai. Agar price successfully lower boundary par 1.0700 pohanchti hai aur is support level ko tor deti hai, toh yeh EUR/USD pair ke liye mazeed girawat ki nishani ho sakti hai. Is level ka breach ek tez bearish trend ko trigger kar sakta hai, jahan price lower levels ko target kar sakti hai. Iske bawajood, aisi movement se pehle aksar ek corrective bounce hota hai. Iska matlab hai ke lower boundary tak pohanchne ke baad, market temporary upward correction dekh sakta hai pehle ke apni downward trajectory ko resume kare. Yeh corrective phase traders ke liye ek secondary opportunity faraham kar sakta hai sell karne ka, kyun ke broader bearish sentiment intact hai. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke bulls apni strength regain karein aur price ko upper channel boundary par 1.0920 ke upar push karein. Agar bulls is resistance level ko break karne mein kamyab hote hain, toh yeh market sentiment mein bearish se bullish shift ka izhar karega. 1.0950 ka breach bearish outlook ko invalidate kar sakta hai aur yeh suggest karega ke EUR/USD pair mazeed gains ke liye poised hai. Aise surat mein, traders ko apni strategies adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, aur buying opportunities ke liye dekhna chahiye badle meinAgar 1.1020 ke upar bullish breakout hota hai, toh yeh zyada buyers ko market mein attract karega, jo ke price ko aur ooper le jaayega aur ek naya upward trend establish karega. Yeh traders ke liye ek signal hoga ke woh apni short positions ko exit karne par ghor karein aur pullbacks par ya price ke barhnewale trend ke dauran buying opportunities dekhein. Trading strategies mein flexible rehna aur changing market conditions ke mutabiq adapt karne ke liye tayar rehna bohot zaroori hai. EUR/USD pair is waqt ek pivotal point par hai, jahan 1.1050 aur 1.0685 ke key levels traders ke liye potential entry aur exit points faraham kar rahe hain. Jo current strategy hai usmein upper channel boundary par selling opportunities dhoondna aur lower boundary ko profit-taking ke liye target karna shamil hai. Lekin traders ko kisi bhi direction mein breakout ke signs par nazar rakhni hogi, kyun ke yeh prevailing trend mein tabdeeli ka signal ho sakta hai. Chahe market apni downward trajectory ko continue kare ya bullish trend ki taraf shift kare, mukhtalif scenarios ke liye tayar rehna EUR/USD market ko successfully navigate karne mein key hoga

**EUR/USD Currency Pair Analysis**
**Recent Price Movement**

Pichle hafte Euro ne kuch khaas movement nahi dekhi, aur price sirf 1% se zyada ke narrow range mein trade hui aur apne shuruat ke qareeb close hui. Monday ko 1.1000 level ke upar rally karne ki koshish ke bawajood, yeh jaldi reverse ho gayi, jo market ki hesitation ko dikhata hai. Market sentiment largely Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ki anticipation se driven hai. September FOMC meeting ke baad rate-cutting cycle ke shuru hone ki umeed poori tarah se price in ho chuki hai, lekin in cuts ke magnitude ki expectations barh gayi hain. September mein 50 basis point ka cut hone ke chances 53.5% tak pahunch gaye hain, aur baaki saal ke liye mazeed reductions ki umeed hai. Agle hafte US PPI aur CPI, retail sales, aur consumer confidence jaise crucial economic data release honge, jo inflation ki easing ke signs ko reinforce kar sakte hain aur shayad Euro ko bolster karen. Eurozone ke GDP data bhi expected hai ke current economic growth pace ko maintain karega.

**Technical Analysis**

Technically, Euro ne pichle teen hafton mein higher highs aur higher lows dikhaye hain, jo upward momentum ka ishara hai. Lekin, 4-hour chart par ascending channel ke upper boundary ko breach na karne ki wajah se bearish reversal ka khauf hai. RSI aur Stochastic indicators ke negative readings bhi is possibility ko support karti hain. Immediate support 1.0928 par hai, aur is level ke niche break hone par channel ke lower boundary 1.0898 tak target kiya ja sakta hai. Agar 1.0898 ke niche decisively close hota hai, to yeh uptrend ko invalidate kar sakta hai aur 1.0850 area tak move open kar sakta hai. Agar 50-period moving average 1.0870 ke upar sustained strength rahti hai, to bullish outlook reinforce hoga. Overall, Euro rate cut expectations aur technical uncertainties ke beech mein phansa hua hai. Jab ke rate-driven rally ki potential hai, immediate-term downside risks ko ignore nahi kiya ja sakta.

**EUR/USD Currency Pair Analysis**

EUR/USD currency pair, jo filhal 1.2754 par trade kar raha hai, bearish trend dikhata hai. Euro (EUR) aur US Dollar (USD) ke beech yeh pair duniya ke sabse zyada traded currency pairs mein se ek hai, jo iske movements ko global forex market mein highly influential banata hai. Jab ke current trend gradual decline suggest karta hai, kuch factors indicate karte hain ke significant movement on the horizon ho sakta hai.

**Current Market Overview**

1.2754 par EUR/USD pair bearish trend mein hai. Yeh downtrend lower lows aur lower highs se characterized hai, jo sellers ke market control ko dikhata hai. Price action consolidation dikhata hai, jo market participants ke uncertainty ko darshata hai, aur yeh relative stability ka period lead karta hai.

**Technical Analysis**

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair critical support level par hai. Agar yeh level hold hota hai, to yeh reversal ko lead kar sakta hai, jo pair ko upar higher levels tak push kar sakta hai. Agar support breach hota hai, to yeh accelerated decline trigger kar sakta hai, jo EUR/USD exchange rate mein significant drop ka sabab ban sakta hai. RSI aur MACD indicators ko watch karna zaroori hai. RSI abhi oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo rebound ki possibility ko suggest karta hai. MACD bhi negative territory mein hone ke bawajood convergence dikhata hai, jo potential reversal ka indication hai. 50-day aur 200-day moving averages ke converge hone se "death cross" ka stage set ho raha hai, jo bearish signal hai aur downward pressure ko amplify kar sakta hai.

**Fundamental Factors**

EUR/USD pair kai fundamental factors se influenced hai, including economic data, interest rate decisions, aur geopolitical developments. ECB aur Fed is currency pair ke direction mein crucial roles play karte hain. Monetary policies ka divergence significant fluctuations ko lead kar sakta hai. Eurozone mein inflation aur slow economic growth concerns Euro par pressure daal rahe hain. Agar yeh issues barqarar rahe, to Euro further depreciate ho sakta hai. US economy bhi resilience dikhane ke bawajood, high inflation aur Fed ke further rate hikes ka samna kar rahi hai. Agar Fed aggressive stance adopt karta hai, to Dollar strong ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair niche aa sakta hai. Agar Fed rate hikes ko pause karta hai, to Euro ko relief mil sakta hai.

**Market Sentiment**

Market sentiment bhi EUR/USD pair ko influence karta hai. Filhal traders cautious hain aur wait-and-see approach adopt kar rahe hain. Yeh cautious sentiment economic data releases ya geopolitical events ki wajah se ho sakta hai. Global trade developments, particularly US aur Europe ke beech, bhi market sentiment ko shape kar sakti hain. Trade tensions ya economic sanctions ke signs volatility ko barha sakte hain.

**Potential Scenarios**



Current conditions ko dekhte hue, EUR/USD pair ke liye do primary scenarios hain:

1. **Bearish Trend Ka Continued**: Agar Euro Dollar ke against weaken karta raha, to EUR/USD pair current support level ko break kar sakta hai. Yeh scenario sharp decline ko lead kar sakta hai, jo pair ko lower levels tak push kar sakta hai.