eur/usd

EUR/USD pair par neechey ka pressure hai. EUR/USD pehle ek descending triangle mein trade kar raha tha, jo ek rising pattern dikhata hai, aur is chart pattern ki height se potential rise ka indication milta hai. Price ek pehle ke resistance level par gir gayi hai, jo ab support ka kaam kar raha hai. Fibonacci Extension tool ke mutabiq, kuch upside targets identify kiye gaye hain, aur pair ne second psychological level 1.0750 par 38.2% extension experience kiya hai. Aagey bullish momentum ise 50% Fibonacci level 1.0762 tak ya 61.8% Fibonacci level tak push kar sakta hai jo swing high 1.0775 ke sath coincide karta hai. 76.4% level 1.0790 par hai, aur full extension 1.0815 par.

Overall, 100 SMA ne recently 200 SMA ko cross kiya hai, jo rally ke strengthening ka confirmation deta hai. Moving averages bhi triangle ke broken tip ke sath aligned hain, jo further support reinforce karte hain. Lekin, Stochastic Oscillator overbought region se neechey move kar raha hai, jo buyer fatigue aur possible selling pressure return ka indication deta hai. Oscillator ke paas abhi neechey move karne ki room hai jab tak seller fatigue reflect nahi hoti. Wahi, RSI ke paas upar move karne ki potential hai overbought region tak pohchne se pehle, jo buyer fatigue ko suggest karta hai lekin rally ke continue hone ka indication bhi deta hai.

Is hafte ke end par, US non-farm payrolls report release hogi, jo expected hai ke June ke liye weak employment data dikhaye. Agar aisa hota hai, toh dollar further weaken ho sakta hai kyunki traders federal government se monetary policy ease karne ki demand karenge. Weak fundamental data, jaise ke labor force participation rate aur average hourly earnings, bhi dollar ke direction ko influence kar sakte hain.

Agar EUR/USD next support level 1.0752 ke aas paas approach karta hai, toh traders ko cautious rehna chahiye. Yeh level ek crucial area hai dekhne ke liye, kyunki successful break below further downside ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, agar pair is support level ke upar rehne mein kamyab hota hai, toh yeh strengthening ya reversal ka indication de sakta hai, jo buying opportunities present karta hai un traders ke liye jo potential bounce ka capitalize karne ke liye ready hain. Market conditions suggest karti hain ke stabilization ya reversals ke signs ka intezar karna chahiye 1.0752 support level ke paas. Traders ko confirmation signals dekhne chahiye, jaise ke bullish candlestick patterns, increased buying volume, ya independent financial data jo potential upward target ke liye assurance provide kar sakte hain.

Agar market conditions current trading level ke neeche stabilize karti hain, toh EUR/USD pair ke gains consolidate ho sakte hain, aur further opportunities open ho sakti hain. Downside par, agar trading stable rahti hai below 1.0870, toh pair negative pressure face kar sakta hai aur key support test kar sakta hai 1.0840 par, jo current trading level ke sath correspond karta hai jo 23.60% Fibonacci retracement ko represent karta hai. Neechey chart hai: Currently, pair various directions mein trade kar raha hai aur har week neutral raha hai. Key support areas abhi tak test nahi hue hain aur intact hain, jo upward vector ki stability indicate karte hain. Lekin, current bearish attempt suggest karta hai ke 1.0837 tak pohchne ki high probability hai, jo main support area ka boundary hai. Agar yeh area retest hota hai, toh situation ko dobara reassess karna padega.

Good Morning.

Yeh clear nahi hai ke Fed September se pehle key rate kam karega ya nahi. Trump ne Powell ko strongly recommend kiya hai ke woh rate ko November tak na kam kare aur elections ke baad faisla kare. Dekhte hain ke Powell kya karte hain, lekin agar woh rate ko kam bhi karte hain, toh yeh zaroori nahi ke iska faida Dollar ko ho, yeh phir se kamzor ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar inflation apni shakhsiyat dikhati hai. Agar hum short-term movements ki baat karein, toh buyers ko 1.09016 level ke upar se break karna aur consolidate karna hoga taake upward movement develop ho sake, aur price growth 1.09474 level tak jaa sakti hai. Sellers ko 1.08745 level ke neeche break karna aur consolidate karna zaroori hai, aur girawat ka target 1.08588 level hoga.

EUR/USD M30 Pair:

1. Weekend par Euro ke entry point ka forecast 1.08963 level ke liye tha, aaj price ne is level ko break kiya, lekin iske upar consolidate nahi kar paayi.

2. Current situation ke hisaab se, price bands ke central area mein hai, aur bands horizontal ho gayi hain. Price ke rise ya fall ke liye achha signal paane ke liye, hume upper ya lower band ke bahar active exit ka intezaar karna hoga, aur phir dekhna hoga ke bands outward open hoti hain ya koi reaction nahi hoti.

3. AO indicator zero mark ke nazdeek hai aur isse koi signal nahi milega. Behtareen yeh hoga ke positive ya negative area mein active increase ka intezaar karein, jo price movement ke is increase ke direction mein hone ka indication dega.

4. Purchases ke liye entry point 1.08963 level se consider kiya ja sakta hai, aur breakout aur consolidation ke baad price increase 1.09306 aur 1.09576 marks tak expected hai.

5. Sales 1.08706 level par place ki ja sakti hain, aur breakout aur consolidation ke baad price drop 1.08328 aur 1.08052 marks tak expected hai.

EUR/USD currency pair aajkal kaafi zyada baat cheet mein hai. Traders keenly dekh rahe hain ke yeh 1.10-99 resistance zone tak pahunchta hai ya nahi, jo ek badi challenge hai. Hamara asset, EUR/USD, ne haal hi mein 1.0950 par resistance test kiya aur bearish correction mein chala gaya, lekin yeh upar ki bullish channel ki lower limit ke qareeb pahunch gaya. Agar US dollar kamzor hota hai aur uski economic situation kharab hoti hai, toh EUR/USD pair phir se rebound karke bullish movement dikha sakta hai.

Interesting baat yeh hai ke is instrument ne 1.0905 ke resistance zone ko break kiya aur iske upar settle ho gaya, jo ke aage ke upward trend ke liye positive sign hai. Yeh three-line Bollinger Band indicator se bhi support milti hai, jo currency pair ko upper pricing range mein dikhata hai, beech aur upper moving lines ke beech, jo bullish trend ka indication hai.

Four-Hour Chart:




Four-hour chart par, price ne ek area se niche bounce kiya aur dheere-dheere highs ko increase kiya, consistently ek level par rebound karta raha jahan yeh ab khada hai. Yeh level pehle price ko further decline se rokti raha hai. Hafte ke shuruat se, yeh tool dobara climb karne ka aim kar sakta hai, lekin pehle isey upar modna hoga, jo ke abhi tak niche se nazar nahi aa raha. Ek upward shot hafte ke shuruat mein gap up ke sath ho sakti hai.

Agle Hafte:

Agle hafte, EUR/USD instrument phir se rise kar sakta hai, supply zone 1.0896-1.0941 ki taraf jaa sakta hai, taake zyada volume hasil kar sake aur 1.0866 resistance ko break kar sake. Ya phir yeh turant niche bhi move kar sakta hai, jo ek possibility hai. Jaise hamesha, market par nazar rakhna aur kisi bhi potential surprises ke liye tayyar rehna zaroori hai.

EUR/USD D1 chart pe kuch purane posts dekhe jo July 5 ko post hue the, aur aaj hum 9th ko hain. Toh maine daily chart par wave technique se situation dekhi: MA100 horizontal space mein kaam kar rahi hai, jo ek flat mood ka signal hai is hafte ke liye. MA18 ne ek waqt par bearish mood dikhaya tha: yeh 30 degrees ke trend angle par niche ki taraf move kar rahi thi. Yeh MA100 ko upar se neeche cross kar gayi, jisse ek dead cross bana - ek sell signal. Lekin pichle hafte ke bulls ke asar mein, jab yeh vertical ascending channel mein north ki taraf move kar rahe the, yeh light moving average bhi horizontal space mein kaam kar rahi hai. Sab candles moving averages, guiding averages, aur local Ichimoku cloud ke upar form ho rahi hain, jo bullish mood ko indicate karta hai. Ichimoku cloud ab bullish colors mein hai. Forecasting ke nazariye se, Kumo bears ke haq mein ja rahi hai. MA100 ke upar stagnation bhi yeh signal deta hai ke bears abhi real nahi hain, woh sirf correction dikhate hain, aur baad mein - ho sakta hai - hum phir se upar jaayein. Filhaal, is instrument par sirf flat dekhai de raha hai.

Across the Atlantic:




Germany ke inflation data par focus hai jo Thursday ko release hoga, jo eurozone ke price pressures ko samajhne mein madad karega. Umeed hai ke inflation 2.5% ke aas paas rahegi, jo European Central Bank ke 2% target se zyada hai. Yeh persistent inflation eurozone ke economic recovery par pressure dalti hai aur ECB ke monetary policy decisions ko challenge karti hai. Euro ab US dollar ke khilaf comeback karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh recently ek downtrend line ko break karne mein kamiyab hua jo December 2023 se chal rahi thi, jo ek potential reversal ka signal hai. Lekin technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke resistance levels around 1.0859 aur 1.0998 euro ki ascent ke liye hurdles ban sakte hain. Dusri taraf, agar key moving average ke neeche gir jata hai toh 1.0630 level ki taraf further decline ho sakta hai. Aane wale din euro ke liye critical test honge, jahan political uncertainty aur economic data ka interplay short-term trajectory ko determine karega.

EUR/USD pair par neechey ka pressure hai. EUR/USD pehle ek descending triangle mein trade kar raha tha, jo ek rising pattern dikhata hai, aur is chart pattern ki height se potential rise ka indication milta hai. Price ek pehle ke resistance level par gir gayi hai, jo ab support ka kaam kar raha hai. Fibonacci Extension tool ke mutabiq, kuch upside targets identify kiye gaye hain, aur pair ne second psychological level 1.0750 par 38.2% extension experience kiya hai. Aagey bullish momentum ise 50% Fibonacci level 1.0762 tak ya 61.8% Fibonacci level tak push kar sakta hai jo swing high 1.0775 ke sath coincide karta hai. 76.4% level 1.0790 par hai, aur full extension 1.0815 par.
Overall, 100 SMA ne recently 200 SMA ko cross kiya hai, jo rally ke strengthening ka confirmation deta hai. Moving averages bhi triangle ke broken tip ke sath aligned hain, jo further support reinforce karte hain. Lekin, Stochastic Oscillator overbought region se neechey move kar raha hai, jo buyer fatigue aur possible selling pressure return ka indication deta hai. Oscillator ke paas abhi neechey move karne ki room hai jab tak seller fatigue reflect nahi hoti. Wahi, RSI ke paas upar move karne ki potential hai overbought region tak pohchne se pehle, jo buyer fatigue ko suggest karta hai lekin rally ke continue hone ka indication bhi deta hai.
Is hafte ke end par, US non-farm payrolls report release hogi, jo expected hai ke June ke liye weak employment data dikhaye. Agar aisa hota hai, toh dollar further weaken ho sakta hai kyunki traders federal government se monetary policy ease karne ki demand karenge. Weak fundamental data, jaise ke labor force participation rate aur average hourly earnings, bhi dollar ke direction ko influence kar sakte hain.
Agar EUR/USD next support level 1.0752 ke aas paas approach karta hai, toh traders ko cautious rehna chahiye. Yeh level ek crucial area hai dekhne ke liye, kyunki successful break below further downside ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, agar pair is support level ke upar rehne mein kamyab hota hai, toh yeh strengthening ya reversal ka indication de sakta hai, jo buying opportunities present karta hai un traders ke liye jo potential bounce ka capitalize karne ke liye ready hain. Market conditions suggest karti hain ke stabilization ya reversals ke signs ka intezar karna chahiye 1.0752 support level ke paas. Traders ko confirmation signals dekhne chahiye, jaise ke bullish candlestick patterns, increased buying volume, ya independent financial data jo potential upward target ke liye assurance provide kar sakte hain.
Agar market conditions current trading level ke neeche stabilize karti hain, toh EUR/USD pair ke gains consolidate ho sakte hain, aur further opportunities open ho sakti hain. Downside par, agar trading stable rahti hai below 1.0870, toh pair negative pressure face kar sakta hai aur key support test kar sakta hai 1.0840 par, jo current trading level ke sath correspond karta hai jo 23.60% Fibonacci retracement ko represent karta hai. Neechey chart hai: Currently, pair various directions mein trade kar raha hai aur har week neutral raha hai. Key support areas abhi tak test nahi hue hain aur intact hain, jo upward vector ki stability indicate karte hain. Lekin, current bearish attempt suggest karta hai ke 1.0837 tak pohchne ki high probability hai, jo main support area ka boundary hai. Agar yeh area retest hota hai, toh situation ko dobara reassess karna padega.

EUR/USD PAIR REVIEW

Do din tak lagatar EUR/USD price ka 1.0750 level se upar jane ka koshish fail hua, aur euro ke gains kamzor pade, jab policymakers ne yeh kaha ke unhein aur evidence chahiye ke price pressures control mein hain. Preliminary estimates ne dikhaya ke euro area mein annual inflation rate June mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jo expectations ke mutabiq tha. Core measure, jo volatile items jaise food aur energy ko exclude karta hai, unexpectedly unchanged raha. Germany, France aur Spain mein inflation rates slow hui, jabke Italy mein yeh 0.9% tak barh gayi.

ECB conference Sintra, Portugal mein ECB President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke ECB ke paas waqt hai data collect karne ka taake ensure kiya ja sake ke inflation track par hai, lekin saath hi interest rates ko restricted levels par rakne ka economic cost bhi hota hai.

Stock trading platforms par European stock indices decline hui. Trading ke mutabiq, dono STOXX 50 aur STOXX 600 Tuesday ko gir gaye, pehla 0.6% aur dusra 0.4%, jab traders ne ECB ke interest rates jaldi se na katne ki possibility ko digest kiya. President Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko interest rates further lower karne ki jaldi nahi hai kyunke unhein inflation aur economic trends assess karne ke liye aur waqt chahiye. Chief Economist Philip Lane ne bhi kaha ke June inflation data central bank ke underlying price pressures ke bare mein questions ka jawab nahi dega. Eurozone inflation June mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jabke expected 2.6% tha, lekin core rate steady raha 2.9% par, expectations ke 2.8% ke muqable.

Corporate side par, L'Oréal shares (-1.4%), Inditex shares (-1.5%), Airbus shares (-0.9%), Bayer shares (-2.8%), aur Munich Re shares (-4%) bhi gir gaye. Bank stocks bhi pressure mein the: BNP Paribas (-0.5%), Banco Santander (-2.3%) aur BBVA (-1.1%). Dusri taraf, Siemens Energy shares 4.3% se barh gaye jab company ne 2030 tak 10,000 employees hire karne ka plan announce kiya.

EUR/USD forecast aaj ke liye:

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, euro ke price against US dollar, EUR/USD, abhi bhi apne downward path par hai, aur current downward channel se bahar nahi niklega jab tak currency pair resistance levels 1.0830 aur 1.0900 ki taraf move nahi karta. Dusri taraf, same time period mein, support level 1.0600 sabse important rahega for more strength aur bears ke control ke trend par. Euro/dollar price apne current range mein reh sakti hai jab tak markets aur investors European elections ke results aur phir US job numbers ke announcement par react nahi karte.

EUR / USD Technical Analysis:

Euro ne usd ke khilaf apni jagah barqarar rakhi thi Thursday ko jab ke investors ne US kay data ka mushkil manzar samna karna tha. Jab ke market ka aam tawajjo yeh hai ke Federal Reserve September mein apni mojooda interest rate policy ko barqarar rakhega, halankeh haal hi mein anay wali ghair mutawaqqa ma'ashi data ki trend tajziyaati tor par ra'ay banane mein madad kar rahi hai. Is natije mein, rate cut ka imkan dhang se barh raha hai, magar ehtiyat se. Ahem EU-wide GDP figures agle hafte anay wale hain aur Fed ka interest rate faisla Wednesday ko hone wala hai, is liye euro traders ek intezar aur dekhne wala tareeqa ikhtiyar kar rahe hain. Sab nigahein Jumma ko US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data par hongi, jo Federal Reserve ka pasandida inflation gauge hai. Core PCE inflation mein barqarar kami, jo tajziya karne wale analysts ke mutabiq hai mazeed expectations ko mazid mazboot kar sakti hai ek mumkin rate kam ki taraf.

EUR / USD D1 Chart:



Eurusd ke khilaf taqat dikhayi hai haal hi mein, jo pichle haftay mein chaar mahine ki unchi tak pohanch gayi. Magar, currency pair ne ek correction ka samna kiya hai,jis ki wajah se ab yeh ahem technical indicators ke qareeb ghoom rahi hai. Jab ke market ka tawajjo July ki meeting mein Fed ko mustaqil rehne ki taraf hai, barhti hui tawajjo September mein rate cut ke imkan ki taraf mudaawam hai, jo interest rate futures contracts ki pricing mein zahir hai. Haal ki data releases mein US ki ma'ashi halaat ne mukhtalif manazir pesh kiye hain. Ek ghair mutawaqqa GDP growth figure ne pehle to market sentiment ko kamzor kiya, lekin baad mein US durable goods orders mein tezi se kami ne ek mumkin rate cut ke baray mein phir se guftagu ko phir se jaga diya. Ye mukhtalif data ek unsurity ka mahol paida kar chuka hai, jo investor behavior aur currency movements par asar daal raha hai.

EUR/USD H4

Hamari guftagu mein, hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price changes ka tajziya karenge. Powell ne ECB forum mein baat ki aur jaise ke aam tor par hota hai, unki guftagu ne US dollar ko kamzor kiya, halanke Lagarde ne unse pehle bol ke euro ko thoda support diya tha. Bawajood iske ke Powell ne kuch naya nahi kaha, EUR/USD ne 1.0739 level ko tor diya aur ab resistance ke 1.0749 ke qareeb hai. Critical resistance level, jo EMA-200 se mark kiya gaya hai, wo 1.0759 par hai. Yeh samajh nahi aa raha ke market ne Powell ke bayan par aise kyun react kiya, kyunke unki remarks groundbreaking nahi the. Unhone kaha ke labor market mazboot hai, inflation 2% ke qareeb nahi hai, aur disinflation ke asaar hain. Lagarde ne bhi kaha ke inflation theek rukh mein hai, lekin yeh kehna bohot jald hai ke yeh waise hi rahegi. Powell ne yeh emphasize kiya ke Fed shayad apne faisle jaldi nahi karega aur ke US aur Europe mein inflation ke maslay mukhtalif hain jo mukhtalif approaches require karte hain. Unke comments ke bawajood, market hesitant hai US dollar kharidne mein.


Europe mein siyasi developments ne market sentiment ko significant influence kiya hai, khaaskar European parliamentary elections ne jo Euro par confidence ko dent kiya hai. France ke faisle ne apni parliament ko dissolve karne aur snap elections karane ka jo ke President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament elections mein substantial defeat ke baad call kiya, ne market uncertainty ko barhaya hai. Marine Le Pen ke, jo ke National Rally ki right-leaning conservative politician hain, Macron ko replace karne ka possibility ne financial markets ko stir kiya hai. Le Pen ka platform, jo ke steep tax cuts, retirement age ko kam karne, aur stringent immigration controls shamil hai, France mein bohot popular ho gaya hai.

Le Pen ki victory ke potential ne European financial markets mein apprehension paida kiya hai. Unki policies significant fiscal challenges impose kar sakti hain jab European economic indicators already underperform kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) persistent inflation issues ke waja se apni rate cuts implement karne mein constrained hai.

EUR/USD ANALYSIS 22 JULY 2024

4 hours tim frame



Market Situation for Euro Pair Since July 2024

July 2024 se Euro pair ke market situation ka jaiza lene par yeh dekha gaya hai ke trend tezi se barh raha hai. Pehle June 2024 mein sellers ka control tha, lekin price ne us waqt ko break kar diya. Pichle mahine ke shuru mein, price barrister zone mein lagbhag teen hafton tak chali, jahan movement ka range chhota tha. Is mahine ke aate hi, market mein aisi energy nazar aati hai jo price ko aage le ja rahi hai. Price ab 0.0949 ke area mein lagbhag teen hafton se barh rahi hai.

Pichle hafte ke neeche ke sudhar ke bawajood, market mein sharp candle ka indication hai. Agar shuruat se aaj tak measure karein, to candle ka movement lagbhag 212 pips tak gaya hai. Ab candle 1.0893 ke position par hai. Chart dekhne se yeh clear hai ke price upward movement ke taraf ja rahi hai. Candle ka position month ke shuru se badh raha hai aur 100-period moving average line ko bhi cross kar chuki hai, jo aage ke trend ko dekhne ke liye ek auxiliary technique ho sakti hai.

Aaj subah market 1.0885 ke position par open hui hai. 4-hour time frame se yeh dikhai de raha hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain aur price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Pichle kuch mahino ke trend ko dekhte hue, price ki tezi se movement ko dekha ja sakta hai. Agar buyers price ko 1.0916 tak le jaate hain, to agla fast travel target 1.0967 ke price zone ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.

Transaction Options:

• Buy: 1.0914 area par
• Take Profit: 1.0964
• Stop Loss: 1.0886

Main aapki raye se ittefaq nahi rakhta hoon ke is jodi ka zawaal ho raha hai. Main ne H1 waqt ka istemaal kiya. Ye aam tor pe peeling shoqeen afrad istemaal karte hain. Mera khayal hai ke hum yahan aik trend mein hain. Kal, 1.0827 area ne pehle ke support ke response ko confirm kiya. Humne ye kiya aur phir price action method mein hissa liya. Baad ke exercises ne humein ek chhoti si candlestick mode di, jo pehli option mein 15 points organize kiye bina InstaForex sauce ke size ko dekhte hue doosri picture mein. Is liye, yahan kuch bhi hairat ki baat nahi hai, aur chhoti chhoti transactions se mutaliq kaam bilkul hairat ki baat nahi hai. Aaj jumma hai, is liye humein repair week pe tawajju deni chahiye. Mujhe yakeen hai ke main U.S. conference mein maqami fluctuations haasil karoon ga. Economic calendar pe sirf aik activity hai - "personal consumption expenditure ka core price index", jo Europe mein nahi hai.

Asian conference mein, European currency ne mo'tadil tor pe transactions mein izafa kiya. Dono ne kal ka orgasm develop kiya. Kuch khaas nahi ho raha. Market merge kar rahi hai kyunke agle budh ko U.S. conference hai. Aaj, Europe aur U.S. ke economic calendar zyada se kam bharay hue hain. European news secondary hai. U.S. se bhi koi khaas ahmiyat wali statistical data nahi aayegi. Mujhe umeed hai ke pehle aadhe din mein, instrument mein koi tez movement nahi hogi aur sahi tor pe correct kar sakta hai, lekin asli surat-e-haal ye hai ke downward trends resume ho jaayein. Expected reversal point 1.0885 hai, aur main yahan agle targets ko mark karoon ga, jinhon ne 1.0825 aur 1.0795 hai. Agar jodi 1.0885 se zyada badh jaaye, to phir 1.0915 aur 1.0935 tak ka rasta khul jaayega.

Abhi EURUSD jodi koshish kar rahi hai ke 1.0870 ka resistance reach kar sake aur todh sake, technical resistance, aur hum bilkul iske saath kharay hain. Agar jodi 1.0870 todhne mein kamyab ho jaati hai, to ye growth ko 1.0930 ke resistance ki taraf continue karne dega, is resistance ka breakout jodi ko upar kar dega, lekin jaise ke main ne upar likha, agle resistance 1.0980 tak pohnchna aaj lagbhag namumkin hoga, sirf naye haftay se. Agar yeh 1.0870 ka resistance todhne mein kamyab nahi hoti, to main agle rollback ko 1.0810 ke support ki taraf maan loon ga, aur aaj ke din yeh usay todhne mein kamyab nahi hogi, main koshish ko exclude nahi karta, lekin main consolidation niche expect nahi karta, is liye 1.0810 se, main phir se reversal aur growth ki umeed karta hoon 1.0870 tak, shayad breakout ke saath, lekin phir is haftay 1.0930 tak nahi pohnch payegi, waqt nahi hoga agar growth rollback ke through 1.0810 tak ho.

EURUSD jodi ki takhliqi tafseeli jayeza

4 ghantay ka chart




4 ghantay ke chart mein ek naye farokht ka mauqa baad ek haftay ke neechayi trend ke baad.

Is haftay mein, qeemat ne qeemat ke channel ke kinaray par trading shuru kiya aur haftay ki pivot level se neechay, ek ilaqay mein jo keemat ke rukh mein aagay barhne se pehle qeemat ke qeemat ki aqsaam mein li gayi, ek area jo keemat ki qeemat ko aik jaga par la kar rukh ki taraf le gaya.

Qeemat ne tootne ke baad gir pari, aur haftay ki 1.0823 ke sath support level ko pohanchne ke baad, is ne upar ki taraf charrha aur channel ko dobara test kiya, aur qeemat dobara girne lagi, jab ke umeed hai ke 1.0823 ke support ko toorna jaega aur qeemat 1.0776 ke level tak girne jaegi.

Is liye, is waqt jodi par farokht karne ke liye mashwara diya jata hai, kyun ke mojooda level farokht karne ke liye munasib samjha jata hai jab ke stop loss ko 1.0853 ke level se oopar set kia ja sakta hai aur hadaf ko 1.0776 ke level se oopar set kia ja sakta hai.

Maeeshati lehaaz se, traders aur investors Europei Central Bank ke aglay maaliyat policy ka jayeez intizar kar rahe hain.

Trading Economics ke data ke mutabiq, market ki khushkhabri hai ke ECB is saal ke aakhir tak do martaba interest rates ko kam kar sakta hai, jin tabdeeliyon ka aghaz September ke asraton ke taur par ho sakta hai. Is ke mutabiq, Naib Sarbarah Luis de Guindos ne September mein naye macroeconomic estimates ki ahmiyat par zor diya ke Bank ke policy faislon ko rehnumai ki taraf rakha jayega.

Europei Central Bank ne pichle haftay interest rates ko stable rakha, jaise ke market ki ummeedon ke mutabiq. President Christine Lagarde ne apni taraf se yeh kaha ke September ke maaliyat policy ke faislon par faisla abhi bhi khula hai aur yeh maqrooz maeeshati data aur ummeedon par munhasir hoga. Yeh ehtiyati taur par ECB ke data-driven faislon ki roshni mein maeeshati sharayat mein izafa karta hai jo ke tabdeeli hone wali maeeshati surat-e-hal ke dauran hai.

EUR/USD:
EUR/USD jodi apni neechayi rukh par jaari hai, jo kehne mein aata hai ke FOMC meeting ke anay wale hone ki sambhavna rahi, magar is bearish movement ke darmiyan, upar ki taraf retracements ka intezar hai. Meri tajziyaat ke mutabiq, mojooda waqt mein ek mumkin hadaf zone 1.0820 aur 1.0815 ke darmiyan hai, jahan hum mukhtalif karte hue aur waqtan-fara ke liye aage ki taraf ja sakte hain, jis ki tafseel aakhri intezar mein ho sakti hai. Is retracement ke baad, jodi ko apni girawat jari rakhne ki tawaqo ki jaati hai, jo keh 1.0795 ke aas paas majood dynamic midday support level ko target karne ka mauqa deti hai, lekin yeh minor tabdeeliyon ke daur se guzar raha hai.

FOMC meeting ki taraf dekhte hue, jo ke maheene ke aakhir mein mua'arif hai, market ke dynamics us ke natayaj aur Federal Reserve ke bayanaat ke mutabiq shift ho sakte hain. Jab ke yeh khabar hai ke meeting EUR/USD jodi ko bulish reaction de sakti hai, jis se yeh tawaqo paida hoti hai ke is mein bulish trend aaye ga lakin us ke liye bohat saoda monitoring aur analysis zarori hai, paas tak guzare.

Mukhtasar mein, mojooda manzar ke mutabiq EUR/USD jodi ke liye bearish trend ka intezar hai jab tak FOMC meeting na aaye. Is ke darmiyan upar ki taraf retracements bhi mumkin hain. Traders 1.0820 - 1.0815 aur 1.0860 ke aas paas tawajjo daingay, jab ke neechayi hadaf 1.0795 ke kareeb bhi hosakti hai. FOMC meeting ek ahem hadsa hai jo market ke jazbat aur rukh ko mutasir kar sakta hai, jis se traders ko aagah rehna chahiye ke mazeed tafseeli development aur un ke trading strategies ko mutabiq karne ke liye.




Maanind traders Monday novices can be seen trading area 1.08638-1.0883 ko liye jaye. Aaj kuch ehmiyat ka mojood hai, lekin kam-se-kam kuch ho raha hai. Ehsas kar sakte hain, uske baad giravat hum dekhein.

Chand ghanton ke dauran, channel line ne qeemat ke liye mazboot support ke taur par kaam kiya hai, jis se ek double bottom pattern ka ijmaar hua hai. Is se yeh sabit hota hai ke qeemat mein ek mumkin upar ki taraf rawani aane ki tawaqo hai. Is natayaj ke mutabiq, qeemat ki umeed hai ke haftay ki pivot level ki taraf barhne ki taraf jaegi. Maqsad yeh hai ke is level ko toorna aur is ke oopar qaim ho jaana hai, jis se 1.0930 ke resistance level ki taraf nishandahi ki ja sakti hai.

Magar yeh bhi mumkin hai ke qeemat haftay ki pivot level se neechay girne ke baad dobara channel lines ki taraf aa sakti hai. Is manzar ke mutabiq, chart par dono khareedne aur farokht karne ke level pehchaane gaye hain, jo potential entry points ko zahir karne ke liye teer se nishandahi ki gayi hain.

Ek khareedne ka mauqa tab aata hai jab qeemat channel lines tak girte hue aur phir upar ki taraf charrhti hai. Is tajarba se faida hasil kiya ja sakta hai jo channel lines ke mazboot support se istifada leta hai, umeed ki jaati hai ke qeemat in levels ko chhu kar dobara charrhegi. Traders is upar ki taraf charrhne ki umeed ke saath khareedne ke positions mein dakhil ho sakte hain.

Ek aur khareedne ka mauqa saamne aata hai agar qeemat 1.0900 ke haftay ki pivot point se kamyaab taur par toorti hai. Jab qeemat is level ko paar karti hai, is se yeh tawaqo hai ke wo apni upar ki taraf rawani jari rakhegi, jis se 1.0930 ke resistance level ki taraf rukh kar sakti hai. Is toorti ke baad khareedne ke positions mein dakhil hona faida mand ho sakta hai, kyun ke yeh upar ki taraf rawani ke trend ke saath mutabiq hota hai.



Mukhtasar mein, mojooda market halat do potential khareedne ke strategies pesh karti hain: ek jo channel lines se charrhne ki ummeed par mabni hai aur doosri jo haftay ki pivot point se toorti ki taraf mabni hai. Traders ko in levels ko qareeb se nigrani mein rakhte hue tayyar hona chahiye aur mutabiq positions mein dakhil hone ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Dono strategies ka maqsad qeemat mein umeed ki jaane wali izafa se faida uthana hai, jis mein chart par pehchaane gaye support aur resistance levels ka istemal hota hai. Apni dakhliyat ko durust waqt par kiya ja sakta hai, jis se traders market ke is rawani mein faida uthane ke imkanat ko barha sakte hain.

EUR/USD H-1

Mangal ke band hone par bullish mumkinar shama qeemat ki yestarday ki trading ki wajah se aik gigantic shadow ke saath thi. Hourly chart par, mojooda khareedne ka nishan bana hua hai. Pehla maqsad Fibonacci grid ke 161.8 level tak hai, jo ke 1.0926 tak hai. Dusra maqsad Fibonacci grid ke 261.8 level tak hai, jo ke 1.0958 tak hai. Teesra maqsad Fibonacci grid ke 423.6 level tak hai, jo ke 1.1013 ke mutabiq hai. Sach kehne ka tarika, main bhi in maqsadon ke bare mein soch raha hoon, lekin qeemat ek din mein in ki taraf na barh sakti hai, balkay agle haftay tak. Aaj ke economic calendar mein European Union ke baray mein dopahar mein khabron ki aamad hai, jis ki ahamiyat teen sitaron ki hai. Shaam ko bhi US ki khabrein hain, jin ki ahamiyat bhi teen sitaron ki hai. Isi liye main tawaqo rakhta hoon ke charts mein volatility barhe gi.



EUR/USD H-4

Kam az kam aaj ne Prime Minister ko istifa de diya aur ghuroob mein ghaib ho gaya. Beshak dekhte hain ke sarkar kaun bana sakta hai, lekin kisi tarah mujhe yakeen nahi hai ke socialist kuch kar sakte hain. Amreeki maeeshat pur umang hai, retail sales (ghair ghari) barh rahe hain. Yeh ek executed positive message tha aur logon ne is par ek aur bekaar message ka reaction diya. Sab se zyada mumkin hai ke gold prices is wajah se barh gaye hain ke investors Fed se ummid rakhte hain ke woh interest rates is level par nahi rakhay ga. Yeh Powell ke kal ke comments aur aaj ke doosre Fed representatives ke muqablay mein kaafi ajeeb lag raha hai ke interest rates ko jaldi kam karne ka koi irada nahi hai. Magar afwahain phaili hain, aur bari media outlets ne investors ko yeh samjha diya hai. Global gold prices ne record bulandiyon ko choo liya hai. Is pesh e nazar ke sath, market bhi is rukh par gayi aur nuksan ko mukhalf kar diya. Maqrooz nahi, EUR/USD 1.0883 ke neechay milay mein kamyabi nahi mili aur gold prices ke barhne ke sath 1.09 tak nuqsan ko mukhalf kar diya. Yahan, humein bhi European inflation data ke elan ka intizar karna hoga taake thoda momentum hasil ho. Agar yeh barh gaya, toh mujhe lagta hai ke yeh giravat palatne se pehle ki akhri growth cycle hai. Warna, main US dollar ke aas paas "saazish nazriyat" banaunga.

Hello, EUR/USD jodi ne apni halqi slide ko jari rakha jis se mid-1.0900s ke qareeb se touch kiya, ya jo guzishta haftay mein chaar mahinay ke buland darjoo tak chali gayi, aur mukammal doosre din, budh ke din ko kuch farokht dabao ke neechay rahi. EUR/USD ke saath upar ki taraf mutawazi hone ki tawaqo ki jaati hai. Agla neechayi rukh 1.0815 ke ahem 200-day SMA par hai, jise June ki kammi 1.0666 (26 June) ke baad le jaye ga. Agar May ki kammi 1.0649 (1 May) ka nuqsan ho jata hai, to 2024 ki kammi 1.0601 (16 April) tak jaye ga. Dosri taraf, pehla upar ki rukawat July ki bulandi 1.0948 (17 July) par nazar aati hai, jise March ki bulandi 1.0981 (8 March) aur ahem 1.1000 ke manzil ke baad dekha jata hai. Bari tasweer dekhte hue, jodi ke liye tashweesh nakraiz ho gi agar jodi apni position ko 200-day SMA ke ahem level ke oopar qaim rakhti hai. Ab tak, char ghantay ka chart dikhata hai ke neechayi rukh tezi se barh rahi hai. Isi tarah, pehli rukawat 1.0948 par hai, 1.0981 aur 1.1000 ke aage. Is ke mukhalif, pehla 1.0843 aata hai, jo ke 200-SMA ko 1.0793 par support deta hai aur aakhir mein 1.0709. Relative Strength Index 33 ke aas paas gir gaya hai. US dollar ne 104.00s ke darmiyan aakar palti kar di hai, jab ke US aur Germany ke yield mein tehleel girai gayi.




Is ke baad, EUR/USD apne bearish trend ko dobara shuru kiya, jaldi hi Monday ke chote faide ko chhod diya aur istedlal risk-off jazbat ke beech 1.0900 ki deewar ke south mein mazeed nuqsan dikhaya. Federal Reserve ke aas paas, September mein interest rate cut ki purani ummeed hai, jis mein investors December mein mazeed cut ki tawaqo rakhte hain. Is background ke saath, market participants ab US siyasi manzar par tawajjo dene lagenge, khas tor par jab ke mojooda Naib Sarbarah K. Harris ko November 5 ke intikhab mein Republican candidate D. Trump ke khilaf kafi taqat mil rahi hai. Gharib maqami ECB Naib Sarbarah Luis de Guindos ne September mein interest rate cut ki mumkin tashweesh ko ishara dete hue kaha, kehte hain ke ECB ke naye tajziyati numainde khudara ki inflation ko hadaf par lotane mein sab se ahem factor honge