USD/CAD Technical Analysis:
Canadian Dollar ne 2024 mein US Dollar ke khilaaf ek giravat ke saath shuru ki, Forex pair USD/CAD 1.3180 se badhkar apni mojooda average qeemat 1.3380 tak pahunch gaya aur kuch dinon se is darje par trade kiya gaya hai. Is pair ne US CPI data ke ikhtetam ke dauran mustaqil qadam rakha tha aur hilne waale oil ke qeemat mein hilchul ke bawajood bhi. Aane wale haftay, markets December 2023 ke Canada ke CPI data ki muntazir hain, peechli dafa ka median CPI y/y 3.4% tha aur m/m 0.1% tha. Traders CPI data ko tawajju se dekhein ge kyun ke is release ka intezar Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, Overnight Rate, aur Rate Statement se pehle 24 January 2024 ke subah ka waqt schedule hai. Middle East ke haal mein pesh aane waale intehaai maloomaat aur uske oil prices par hone waale asar ko dyaan mein rakhna bhi ahem hai.
CAD halaat kardar mein mazid shararat hone ke bawajood mustaqil hai jo ke is currency ko sharp tor par USD ke izafay ko roknay mein madad faraham karta hai. Halankeh CAD abhi bhi pressure ke neeche hai kyunke trade war ki fikron ne oil ke prices ko kam kiya hai aur US dollar ko bullish momentum barqarar rakhne mein madad milti hai. Haal hi mein Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz ne kaha ke unhe yakeen hai ke mulk ki housing sector barqarar hone ke baad is saal ke akhir mein waapas aayega, jab Toronto aur Vancouver ke markets stabilize ho jayenge aur naye regulations ka asar dikhayi dega. Dolar, jis ke asarat mein AUD/USD exchange rate par hila dene ke bajaaye, tasweer banata hai. Jaise ke US Canada ke liye mukhtasir hai, jo ke 80% sabhi Canadian exports ka hissa hai, aise maloomat jo US ki istiqrar aur maali sehat ke taluqat se mutalliq hain, is pair ke liye khaas tor par ahem hai. Maslan, U.S. mein un-employment ke buland darjaat, agar maujooda hain, to ye ishara karta hai ke qareebi mustaqbil mein istifada mein kami hogi, aur is tarah se oil ke liye talab kam hogi.
Price ab ek girte hue channel ke andar trade kar raha hai aur ab ek barhne wala wedge formation ko mukammal karne ki koshish lag raha hai. Agar price action niche gir jaata hai aur wedge pattern ke andar trade karna jari rakhta hai, to ye descending channel ke liye ek muqarar pattern ka tawil hota hai. Ye hi wedge pattern bhi RSI par ek manfi muhawira ke saath hai. MACD line ek manfi muhawira ko darust kar rahi hai aur MACD line sirf signal line ke neeche se guzarti hai.
Intraday bias USD/CAD mein is waqt neutral hai. Upar ki taraf, 1.3612 ki sakht toor par tabadla 1.3176 se 1.3897 ke taraf puri aahang se barhne ko jari rakhega. Neeche, 1.3419 ke sakht toor par tor par tor par 1.3176 se rukhne ka doosh maqasid hai. Nazdiki taur par outlook 1.3976 (2022 high) se price action ko sirf ek correct pattern ke roop mein dekhta hai. Agar aur girawat ho, to taqatwar support 1.2947 resistance turned support par ubhar kar aayegi taki dobara girawaad ko laaye. Kul milakar, 1.2005 (2021 ki low) se shuru hui bari up trend ko aage badhne ki tawaqo ki jaati hai. Price action aur RSI indicator ke darmiyan manfi muhawira (surkh lines), price action ne buland darjaat banaye jab RSI ne ek baray ke liye ek kam darjaat banaya. Halankeh RSI apne oversold territory ki taraf ja raha hai, lekin yeh nishchit maqami level ke qareeb hai. Price action apne EMA9 ke neeche trade karta hai jo annual pivot point 1.3410 se milta hai, price ne January mein is level ko torne ki koshish ki thi lekin abhi tak kamiyaab nahi raha. Doosri taraf, price action apne SMA50 ke neeche hai jo ascend blue trendline ke saath milta hai.
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