gold

Gold ka Technical Analysis
Gold ne pichlay haftay upar move continue karne ki koshish ki, lekin resistance milny ke baad niche girna start ho gaya. 2789 ko touch karne ke baad price ne correction ki aur signal area se break out kar k pehlay 2758 aur phir 2713 tak gir gaya. Iska matlab yeh hai ke pehlay ke review ki expectations puri nahi hui aur target area tak pohanchna possible nahi ho saka. Price chart filhal supertrend k red zone mein hai, jo indicate karta hai ke sellers control mein hain.

Aaj ke technical analysis mein 4-hour chart par momentum indicator midline 50 ke upar stabilize ho raha hai. Simple moving averages se bhi support mil raha hai jo uptrend ki possibility ko strengthen karta hai. Daily uptrend ke continuation ke liye 2790 points ke upar consolidation required hai, jo trend ko accelerate karay ga aur agay chal kar 2800 points tak pohanch sakta hai, jahan se rise ho k 2810 aur 2830 points tak bhi ja sakta hai. Agar 2790 ka level break nahi hota aur price 2772 ke niche consolidate karne lagti hai toh yeh corrective decline cause karegi aur initial target 2758 ho ga, jo ke pehla top hai aur yahan support change ho sakti hai.



Is waqt price weekly lows ke niche hai. Main support area ko test kiya gaya lekin price is mein enter nahi ho payi, jo preferred trend ko downside mein shift karne ka indication hai. Isay confirm karne ke liye price ko 2713 ke niche consolidate karna ho ga jo ke main resistance zone ki boundary hai. Yahan se retest aur subsequent rebound hota hai toh ye downward wave ko create kare ga jiska target area 2665 aur 2625 points ke beech ho sakta hai.

2758 resistance aur reversal level ke upar breakout current situation ka reversal signal karega.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

XAU/USD Gold Price Daily Update: Ahm Asraat aur Levels ke Sath Rasta Tay Karna

Aaj ka gold ka performance uski safe haven ki kirdar ko zahir karta hai jab ke dono geopolitics tension aur U.S. economic shifts ke asrat hai. XAU/USD kareeban $1,950 par hover kar raha hai, aur traders closely dekh rahe hain ke koi bhi change ho sakta hai jo ke momentum ko ya to upwards ya downwards shift kar sakta hai.

Fundamental Analysis

Federal Reserve ka recent dovish stance ne gold ko support karne mein aham kirdar ada kiya hai. Jab se central bank ne rate hikes ke pace ko dheema karne ka ishara diya hai, gold ka appeal barh gaya hai kyun ke ye interest yield nahi karta. Monetary policy mein ye shift ne gold ko apni strength maintain karne mein madad di hai jab ke traders long-term economic stability aur inflation concerns par ghoor kar rahe hain.

Global uncertainty, khaaskar Middle East ke geopolitical conflicts ke around, ne gold ke demand mein ek layer ka izafa kiya hai safe asset ke tor par. Tensions badhne se investors protection ke liye safe-haven assets jaise gold mein invest karte hain. Iske ilawa, recent U.S. dollar fluctuations ne bhi aaj ke price levels mein apna kirdar ada kiya hai; softer dollar aksar non-U.S. buyers ke liye gold ko aur bhi attractive banata hai, jo ke price ko support deta hai.

Technical Analysis

Aab aaj ke chart ke bare mein baat karte hain, jo ke D1 time frame mein prepare kiya gaya hai. Waqt-e-likhai par XAU/USD 2683.77 par trade kar raha hai. XAU/USD pair ka movement raat ko kaafi bullish aur gehra tha jo confirm karta hai ke XAU/USD market pair abhi bhi buyers ke control mein hai jo XAU/USD pair ko ek bullish trend mein guide karte hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator buy ya sell signals aur market trend ka info deta hai. RSI abhi 48.2198 par hold kar raha hai. Saath hi, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator ka upward movement upward movement ka resumption show karega. Agar XAU/USD twenty periods ki exponential moving average aur 50 periods ki exponential moving average ko break karta hai, tou XAU/USD decline karega. Agar aisa hota hai, tou aap XAU/USD par sell trade open kar sakte hain kuch profit haasil karne ke liye.



Market price resistance ki taraf ja rahi hai jo 2708.75 par hai aur ye pehla resistance level hai. Agar market price 2708.75 resistance zone ko break karta hai, tou market higher levels tak pohoch sakti hai jo ke 2792.43 par hai. Uske baad, market price agle resistance ki taraf move kar sakta hai jo ke 2800 par hai aur ye 3rd resistance level hai. Dusri taraf, near-term support kareeban 2651.04 ke aas-paas hai. Agar market price wahi trend follow karta hai aur further girta hai, tou market price kuch dinon mein naya doosra support level bana sakta hai. Uske baad, agar sellers 2550.05 ke neeche weaken hone mein kamiyab ho jate hain, tou agla focus 2440.40 barrier ki taraf hoga jo ke 3rd level of support hai. Agar aisa hota hai, tou aap XAU/USD par sell trade karne ki koshish kar sakte hain.

Market Sentiment

Aaj ka sentiment XAU/USD ke around halka bullish hai lekin vigilant hai ke potential U.S. economic data releases bhi hain jo ke Fed policy expectations ko impact kar sakti hain. Traders ko ye developments closely monitor karne ki advice di gayi hai, kyun ke koi bhi significant economic updates ya geopolitical events gold ke price path par asar dal sakte hain aglay dinon mein.

Ye concise analysis XAU/USD market ka ek real-time view provide karta hai, jo ke aaj ke trading outlook ko shape karte hue key technical levels aur insights ka zikar karta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Price Forecast – Election Results ka Asar

Trump ki jeet par market ka reaction 2016 ki yaad dilata hai: gold prices mein sharp girawat dekhi gayi, jab ke dollar aur 10-year yields barh gaye. Agar ye analog theek sabit hota hai, toh metals aur miners mid-December tak pressure mein reh sakte hain.


Lekin ye baat yaad rakhni chahiye ke jab Trump ne 2016 mein jeet hasil ki thi, toh Fed funds 0.25% aur 0.50% ke beech the aur Fed abhi hiking cycle shuru kar raha tha. Aaj ke waqt mein Fed funds kaafi zyada hain aur Fed rate cut kar raha hai, toh pehle jaisa scenario expect nahi kiya ja sakta.


Iske ilawa, 2016 mein gold ek multi-year bear market ke end par tha. Ab ke baar gold ka bull market shuru ho raha hai, jo ke central bank ke record-buying ki wajah se fuel ho raha hai jo ke future mein bhi jari rehne ka imkan hai.


Key Points:

• Trump ne election jeet liya, key swing states aur popular vote dono hasil kiye.
• Republicans ne Senate mein seats hasil ki aur House mein bhi slim majority barqarar rakhenge.
• Ye election results medium term mein gold ke liye bearish hain, lekin waqt ke sath ye bullish bhi ban sakte hain.
• Dollar Trump ki jeet par sharply rally kiya, lekin ye yaad rahe ke prices pichle do saal se 100 aur 106 ke darmiyan phanse hue hain. Agar ye 108 se upar surge karta hai toh ye breakout confirm karega—warna ek important ceiling par hai.

Gold


Trump ki jeet aur Republican sweep medium-term mein gold ke liye bearish hain, aur gold ko 200-day MA tak wapas le jate hain (jo ke currently lagbhag $2,400 ke paas hai). Is path ko reverse karne ke liye aur mazeed upside support karne ke liye, gold ko jaldi $2,760 se upar close karna hoga.


Gold (XAU/USD) ne Trump ki jeet par selling pressure dekha aur Wednesday ko $2,700 se neeche gir gaya jab US Treasury bond yields rally hui. Aane wale haftay mein US inflation data aur Fedspeak se yeh pata chalega ke kya Gold apne bearish pressure se nikal sakega.


Trump ki jeet par Gold mein bara loss

Gold ne hafte ki shuruaat mein calm manner mein thoda gain kiya lekin Wednesday ko Asian trading hours mein USD ne strength gather ki, aur XAU/USD ne neechay ki taraf movement kiya. Trump ke key battleground states ko jeetne ki news ne US Treasury bond yields ko aur push kiya, jo ke gold prices par additional pressure ka sabab bana.


Fed ka Announcement aur Inflation

Fed ne Thursday ko policy rate mein 25 bps ka cut kiya, jo ke ab 4.5%-4.75% ke range mein hai. Fed ne kaha ke job market aur inflation risks roughly balance mein hain. Iske bawajood, Treasury bond yield mein lagbhag 2.5% ka loss hua jo ke gold ke weekly decline ko thoda recover karne mein madadgar sabit hua.


Gold Investors Fedspeak aur Inflation Report ka intizar kar rahe hain
Agle hafte Wednesday ko, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) October ka CPI data publish karega. Agar monthly core CPI forecast se neeche raha, toh USD apne rivals ke muqablay mein weak ho sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar core CPI forecast se zyada hota hai toh XAU/USD ko apni position barqarar rakhna mushkil hoga.

Gold ka Technical Outlook

Gold ne June se ascending regression channel ke neeche girne ke bawajood support hasil kiya aur wapas channel mein aagaya. RSI (Relative Strength Index) 50 par recover hone ke bawajood buyers ka hesitation dikhata hai.





Neeche ki taraf $2,680-$2,675 mein key support area form ho gaya hai, aur $2,640 mein 50-day SMA support hai. Agar daily close is support se neeche hota hai toh ek aur leg lower ki taraf $2,600 ja sakta hai.

Agar XAU/USD $2,720 (20-day SMA) ko support mein convert kar leta hai, toh technical buyers wahan se action le sakte hain. Is scenario mein, $2,760 (ascending channel ka mid-point) agla hurdle ban sakta hai aur $2,790 par all-time high resistance ki taraf bhi nazar rahegi.

Fundamental Forecast

US mein monetary policy ko Federal Reserve (Fed) control karta hai. Fed ke do basic goals hain: price stability aur full employment. Ye goals achieve karne ka Fed ka primary tool interest rates ko adjust karna hai. Jab prices bohot zyada aur inflation Fed ke 2% target se barh jati hai, toh wo interest rates ko barhate hain taake borrowing mehngi ho jaye aur USD strong ho.


Agar inflation 2% se neeche ho ya Unemployment Rate bohot zyada ho, toh Fed rates cut karke borrowing ko incentivize karta hai jo ke USD par negative effect dal sakta hai.


Khaas situations mein, Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing (QE) ki taraf bhi ja sakta hai. QE mein Fed kaafi ziada currency supply karta hai aur financial institutions se high-grade bonds kharidta hai. 2008 ki Financial Crisis ke dauran, Fed ne ye approach apnai thi. QE ki wajah se USD usually weak hota hai.


Quantitative Tightening (QT)


QT QE ka opposite hota hai, jisme Fed bonds ki reinvestment rok leta hai aur nayi bonds purchase nahi karta, jo ke typically USD ko support kar sakta hai.


Ye sab points indicate karte hain ke Trump ke election jitne ke baad gold ke investors ko ye samajhna hoga ke US mein inflation aur Fed ki policy ke effects gold ki future pricing ke liye kaise honge.

Gold (XAU/USD) abhi bhi longer-term uptrend mein hai, lekin humein recent candles mein kuch downward correction ya consolidation dekhne ko mil raha hai. Yeh current price movements aur important support aur resistance levels ke madh-e-nazar aik technical analysis hai jo aglay possible price movements ke bare mein insight de raha hai. Current Trend aur Levels:
Gold ka current price **2659.62** par hai, jo ek significant level par trade kar raha hai. Price ne pehle kuch upar ki taraf movement dikhayi thi, lekin ab correction phase mein hai. Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke hisaab se, price abhi bhi cloud ke upar trade ho rahi hai, jo long-term bullish signal hai. Magar, recent bearish candles correction ka indication de rahi hain, jo suggest karti hain ke market mein short-term mein selling pressure ho sakta hai.
Key Support aur Resistance Levels**:
Chart mein kuch ahem support aur resistance levels identify kiye gaye hain. Agar price 2601par aati hai, toh yeh pehla strong support hoga jahan buyers ka interest barhne ki umeed hai. Iske baad, **2508.21** ka level ek aur strong support point hai jo aglay possible bounce ka sabab ban sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar price upar ki taraf move karte hue 2735.08 ka resistance break karti hai, toh next target 2807.58 ho sakta hai, jo ab tak ka highest level hai.
Indicators ka Analysis:
Ichimoku Cloud aur moving averages indicate karte hain ke price abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai. Lekin, agar price cloud ke andar aa jati hai, toh yeh bearish sentiment ko indicate kar sakti hai. Moving averages bhi abhi uptrend ko support kar rahe hain, jo long-term mein buying ka signal dete hain, magar short-term correction ke liye tayar rehna zaroori hai.
Trading Strategy:
Is analysis ke mutabiq, aap “buy on dip**” strategy consider kar sakte hain. Agar price 2601 tak girti hai aur wahan se bounce karti hai, toh yeh potential buy entry point ban sakta hai. Stop loss 2508 ke neeche rakhna zaroori hoga taake risk manage ho. Take profit ke liye 2735 aur 2807 par targets set kar sakte hain agar rally hoti hai. Yeh strategy risk management aur proper level analysis par focus karti hai, jo profitable trade plan banane mein madadgar ho sakti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Bohut jald Apne Historical High Levels Ko Dobara Test Kar Sakta Hai

Gold ne kuch din pehle tareekhi bulandiyon ko chhunay ki koshish ki, magar US job market data ke hawalay se pareshaniyon ki wajah se momentum kho diya aur wapis gir gaya. US mein beruzgaari ki rate mein hairat angaiz izafa hua jis ne global markets mein zordaar bechne ka rujhan peda kiya.


Gold aik roaiti “safe-haven” asset hai lekin market panic ke doran kabhi kabhi dabao mein aa jata hai. Yeh is liye hota hai kyun ke traders ko jab bechni ki majboori ho to wo apne assets bech kar paisa jama karte hain.


Magar, is tarah ke pullbacks jaldi khareed liye jaate hain kyun ke forced selling khatam hoti hai aur cash-rich investors is moqe ko gold ko acha rate par khareedne ke liye istemal karte hain.


Aham Points:

• U.S. job market data ke mayoos kun natayej ne gold markets mein pullback peda kiya.
• Yeh pullback thoda waqt ruka raha magar traders ne is moqe ko acha rate par gold khareedne ke liye istemal kiya.
• Gold ke paas tareekhi bulandiyon ko qaribi waqt mein test karne ka acha moqa hai jab ke global markets Fed rate cut cycle ke shuru hone ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

Yeh lagta hai ke hum ne abhi aise hi aik scenario dekha hai. Gold thodi dair ke liye $2400 se neeche gaya jab ke traders ne U.S. job market data ke mayoos natayej ke foran baad lag bhag sab kuch bech diya.


Ab ke markets pur sukoon ho gaye hain, gold ki price dobara ooper jaane lagi hai kyun ke fundamentals mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui. Gold ko central banks ki strong support hasil hai jo ke apne assets ko geopolitical tensions ke hawalay se diversify kar rahe hain.


Investors ne bhi kuch funds gold mein lagane shuru kar diye hain, ye soch ke ke central bank ki demand aakhir kaar gold ke rates ko $2500 ke ooper le jaaye gi. Wahi pehla chakkar rate cut cycle ka bhi expected hai US mein jo ke gold aur doosri precious metals ko mazid support dega.


Yeh heraan kun nahi hai ke recent pullback aik chhoti si rukawat sabit hui aur gold ne jaldi se apna upar ka momentum wapas hasil kar liya. Technical nazar se dekha jaye to, agar resistance level $2445 - $2450 ke range ke ooper jaaye to tareekhi highs dobara test hone ka strong chance hai. Aise mein gold ke paas acha moqa ho ga ke wo momentum ko mazid barhaaye aur $2500 se upar chala jaye jab speculative traders naye trading range ke breakout ka faida uthane ki koshish karenge.


Aane Wala Trading Scenario:



Global equity markets mein aik chhoti si recovery dekhi gayi hai, magar momentum kamzor hota nazar aa raha hai kyun ke US recession ke asar ke khadshat barqarar hain. In pareshaniyon ne safe-haven assets ko support diya hai, jismein gold bhi hai jo $2,700 mark ke ooper mazid barqarar hai. Ab traders ka rukh weekly jobless claims ke data ki taraf hai lekin asal focus US consumer inflation figures par hai jo ke aane wale waqt mein expected hain. Wahi doosri taraf geopolitical tensions bhi barh rahi hain; Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ne Lebanon se aaye 30 projectiles ko intercept kiya hai jo ke north Israel par fire ki gayi thi. Israeli military high alert par hai jab ke intelligence reports mein western Iran mein zaida harkatain dikhayi gayi hain jo ke kisi baar aane wale attack ka ishara deti hain. Diplomacy mein Hamas leaders ne ceasefire talks ke moqay par mediators se kaha ke wo pehle ke negotiations par focus karen aur naye discussions se gurez karen.





Gold ke prospects mein Fed rate cuts aur key resistance levels ka faida hai. US economic growth mein kamzorri aur unemployment ke barhte hue trends ne is recent stock market decline mein gold ko support di hai. Jab tak gold 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke ooper hai, bullish outlook barqarar rahe gi. Agar prices $2,700 ke ooper jaane mein kamyab ho jati hain, to agla major resistance level $2,717 ho ga aur uske baad all-time high $2,790 par ho ga. Magar recent price action kuch sluggish hai aur kisi bhi significant upside movement ki umeed rakhte hue ehtiyat baratna chahiye. $2,748 ke paas resistance naya challenge peda kar sakta hai jo ke qareebi waqt mein aage ka rukh rok sakta hai. Magar, overall market sentiment gold ke liye positive hai jab ke daily chart ke oscillators abhi bhi bullish territory mein hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Kia Support $2,610 Par Qaim Rahega Jaise Hi Treasury Yields Increase hote Hain?

Gold apni gains ko maintain karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai aur abhi $2,615.70 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai, kyunke strong U.S. dollar aur barhte Treasury yields safe-haven demand ko kam kar rahe hain. Investor ka focus is hafte ke liye U.S. inflation data aur Fed commentary par hai, jo ke gold ke prices ke outlook ko asar andaz kar sakti hai. Trump ke proposed tax cuts dollar ki strength ko barha rahe hain, jo ke economic optimism mein izafa kar raha hai aur gold ki safe-haven ki haisiyat ko kam kar raha hai.

Market Overview

Gold ke prices (XAU/USD) ko upward momentum ko qaim rakhne mein mushkil ka samna hai aur woh $2,615.70 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai. Iska intra-day low $2,606 tak pohanch gaya kyunke U.S. dollar ne apni taqat mein izafa kar liya.

Dollar, jo ke chaar mah ke high ke qareeb hai, apni growth ko aur barha raha hai Trump ke proposed corporate tax cuts ke optimism ke saath. Yeh fiscal policies dollar ko barha rahi hain aur safe-haven assets jaise ke gold ko kam attractive bana rahi hain.

Dollar ki upward trajectory aur bhi support ho rahi hai broader U.S. market ke positive sentiment ke sath, jahan economic growth expectations barh rahi hain.

Traders Eye Upcoming Inflation Data aur Fed Speeches

Ab investor ka dhyan kuch aham economic data aur Federal Reserve ki commentary par hai jo ke is hafte expected hai. U.S. consumer inflation figures jald release hongi jo price stability ke bare mein insight dein gi aur Fed ke policy direction ko asar andaz kar sakti hain.

Iske ilawa, Fed Chair Jerome Powell aur doosre central bank officials ke remarks bhi scheduled hain. Traders in remarks ko ghor se dekh rahe hain kisi bhi future monetary policy adjustments ki nishani ke liye.

Federal Reserve ne recently apni benchmark interest rate ko 25 basis points se kam kiya hai aur agle cuts ke liye suggestion di hai.

Magar, Fed ke policymakers, jisme Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari shamil hain, yeh emphasize karte hain ke unhe inflation ka 2% target ke qareeb honay ka mazid saboot chahiye pehle ke woh mazeed cuts karein.

Global Trade Tensions aur Gold ka Safe-Haven Role

Trump ki protectionist policies global trade tensions ke potential ko barha rahi hain, jo ke gold ke liye double-edged sword ban sakti hain. Barhti hui trade friction kuch investors ko market volatility ke against hedge ke tor par gold mein wapas le aa sakti hain.

Mukhtasir mein, gold par pressure qaim hai strong U.S. dollar aur barhte Treasury yields ki wajah se. Magar, Fed ke rate cuts aur renewed trade concerns gold ko kuch support de sakte hain, jo ke safe-haven assets ka evaluation karne ke liye traders ke liye ek crucial period bana raha hai.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold abhi bhi pressure mein hai aur $2,615 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai. Agar $2,610 ke neeche break hota hai toh aur declines aa sakte hain, jabke iske upar qaim rehne se $2,622 ki taraf rebound ho sakta hai. Market sentiment dollar strength par qaim hai.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is waqt $2,672.70 par lower trade kar raha hai, jo 0.44% down hai. Precious metal ko $2,668.55 ke pivot point par pressure ka samna hai. Agar gold is level ke upar qaim rehta hai, toh ek bullish bounce ho sakta hai, jis mein immediate resistance $2,683.83 par hai aur aage ke hurdles $2,606.64 aur $2,639.14 par hain.



Magar, agar $2,558.55 se neeche dip hota hai, toh yeh mazeed downside ko signal kar sakta hai, jisme key support $2,575.34 aur additional layers $2,573.35 aur $2,532.75 par hain.

Technical indicators ek challenging road ka ishara de rahe hain, jahan 50-day EMA $2,617.33 par hai aur 200-day EMA $2,641.69 par hai jo overhead resistance ko barha rahe hain. Filhal, sentiment pivot ke upar bullish lagta hai, lekin agar prices is level se neeche jati hain toh ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

Gold (XAU/USD) ka 4-hour time frame


par analysis kuch tafseel ke sath yeh hai: Gold ka current trend abhi bullish hai, lekin recent price action mein thoda correction nazar aa raha hai. Aaj ka support level 200-period moving average (MA 200) par hai jo ke 2689 ke qareeb hai. Yeh support level price ko neeche girne se roknay mein madadgar ho sakta hai aur agar yahan se bounce hota hai toh yeh bullish trend ke qayam rehne ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin agar price is support ko break karti hai, toh agla support level 2670 par ho sakta hai.
Chart mein moving averages ke indicators (MA 100, MA 150 aur MA 200) bhi important hain. MA 100 aur MA 150 ka placement is waqt MA 200 ke upar hai jo ke long-term mein bullish trend ka indication hai. Agar price MA 200 ke upar rehti hai aur bounce back karti hai, toh agle resistance levels 2730 aur 2758 par ho sakte hain, jo ke strong resistance zones hain. Yeh levels cross honay par agla target 2775 ho sakta hai.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator bhi important role play kar raha hai. RSI abhi 40.98 par hai jo ke neutral zone mein hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke price abhi beech mein hai aur kisi bhi taraf move kar sakti hai. Agar RSI 50 ke upar chala jata hai toh yeh buying strength mein izafa ko zahir karega, jo ke ek bullish signal ho sakta hai. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi abhi bearish signal dikhata hai kyun ke MACD line abhi signal line ke neeche hai. Lekin agar yeh crossover hota hai aur MACD line signal line ke upar jati hai toh yeh buying opportunity ka signal de sakta hai. Aam taur par is analysis se yeh samajh aata hai ke agar gold price 2730 ke upar close karti hai toh aagey ka target 2758 aur uske baad 2775 ho sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf 2689 aur 2670 important support levels hain jo ke break hone par further downside ko indicate karenge. Trading decisions lete waqt in key levels aur indicators ko zaroor dekha jana chahiye.

Gold ka yeh 4-hour (H4) timeframe chart humein recent price movement aur market trend ke baare mein information de raha hai. Chart ko dekh kar lagta hai ke is waqt market downward trend mein hai, yani gold ki value gir rahi hai. Is analysis mein hum kuch important indicators aur technical aspects ko discuss karenge, jo trading decision mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain.
Is chart mein humein green candles aur dots ke through price movement dikhayi de rahi hai. Shuru mein market mein upward trend tha, lekin recent candles niche ki taraf hain, jo ke bearish (downward) trend ko indicate karti hain. Yeh giraawat lagbhag 1 November ke baad se shuru hui aur abhi tak continue ho rahi hai, jo ke buyers ke liye ek risk ka indication hai. Yeh movement un logon ke liye beneficial ho sakti hai jo gold ko short sell karna chahte hain. Chart par do yellow lines hain jo moving averages ko represent karti hain. Moving averages ka purpose overall trend ko dekhna hota hai. Jab price moving averages ke niche ho toh yeh downward trend ko indicate karta hai. Is waqt price in moving averages se neeche chal rahi hai, jo ke gold ke price ke niche jaane ki aur indication deti hai. Niche ki taraf humein RSI indicator dikhayi de raha hai jo ke oversold zone mein hai aur is waqt 22 ke qareeb value par hai. RSI jab 30 se neeche hoti hai, toh yeh market ke oversold hone ka sign hota hai. Iska matlab hai ke price zyada neeche ja chuki hai aur ab buying pressure aa sakta hai, jo ek short-term recovery ya pullback ka chance bana sakta hai. OsMA indicator bhi negative territory mein hai, jo weak momentum ko indicate karta hai. Yeh indicator downward trend ke continuation ka support karta hai, magar kabhi kabar agar recovery aaye toh yeh bhi upar ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Is waqt gold ka trend downward hai aur selling pressure zyada hai. Lekin RSI aur OsMA ke analysis ke mutabiq short-term mein pullback ya bounce ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Agar aap trade plan kar rahe hain toh short-selling ka option better lagta hai, lekin price ka support level pe ane ka bhi khayal rakhein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Apne Teen Saal k Dowran Sabse Bara Weekly Loss Mark Karne Wala hai

Gold ke rates European trade mein Friday ke din pehli dafa chhe din ke baad upar ki taraf gaye hain, jabke ye do mahine ke lows se door hain.

Lekin iske bawajood, gold ke prices abhi bhi teen saal ka sabse bara weekly loss record karne ja rahe hain, kyunke dollar aur US treasury yields dono mein izafa hua hai.

Recent bullish remarks Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki taraf se December mein 0.25% US interest rate cut ke chances ko bhi kam kar chuki hain.

Price

Gold prices poore haftay mein ab tak 4.25% neeche hain, jo ke June 2021 ke baad ka sabse bara weekly loss ban raha hai.

Dollar

Dollar Index Thursday ke din 107.06 par pahunch gaya, jo ke ek saal ka high hai.

Mazboot dollar greenback-denominated gold futures ko doosri currencies ke holders ke liye mehnga banata hai.

Markets umeed laga rahe hain ke US President-elect Donald Trump ki inflationary aur expansionary policies monetary policies ko mazboot aur dollar ko mazid mazboot banaye rakhein gi.

US Yields

US 10-year treasury yields Friday ko 0.7% barh kar 4-1/5 mahine ke highs par pahunch gaya hai, jo ke non-yielding assets par dabao dal raha hai.

Trump Trade

Trump ki landslide election victory ke baad se global markets mein rapid changes dekhne ko mil rahe hain, jo ke "Trump trade" kehlata hai. Ye optimism Trump ki economic policies ki wajah se hai.

Trump ki policies, jaise ke tariffs barhana aur immigration ko constrain karna, long-term inflationary pressures barhane ki umeed hai.

In measures ki wajah se imports mehngay honge, wages barhein gi, aur inflation bhi barh sakti hai, jo Federal Reserve ko policy easing ka pace reconsider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

US Rates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Thursday ko kaha ke interest rate cuts ko tez karne ki zarurat nahi hai, kyunke economy aur labor market grow kar rahe hain aur inflation abhi bhi 2% ke upar hai.

Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, December mein 0.25% Fed rate cut ke chances 83% se gir kar 59% par aa gaye hain.

Ab investors important US retail sales data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo monetary policies ke future path par mazid clues de sakta hai.

SPDR

SPDR Gold Trust ke gold holdings 1.15 tons gir kar kal 867.37 tons par aa gaye, jo ke 11 September ka low hai.

Technical Outlook

Gold ka recent price drop $2,536.43 tak bearish momentum ka dominance dikhata hai. Lekin price ab slightly recover kar raha hai aur hourly chart ke EMA34 (34-period Exponential Moving Average) ke neeche hai.



Agar price EMA34 ke upar breakout kar leta hai aur $2,589.46 ke resistance level ko todta hai, toh bullish recovery shuru ho sakti hai. Yeh momentum barh kar $2,616.16 ka target achieve kar sakta hai.

Lekin agar gold EMA34 ke upar breakout nahi kar saka, toh yeh mazid declines ke liye vulnerable ban sakta hai.

Agar price $2,536.43 ke recent low ko todta hai, toh sellers strong control le sakte hain, aur price $2,525 ke psychological support level ki taraf gir sakta hai.

Mazid neeche girne ki surat mein bearish sentiment mazid barh sakta hai. Important levels include $2,554 as immediate support aur $2,589.46 as key resistance.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
Oil prices abhi tak pichlay week ke uptrend ko continue karne ki koshish kar rahi hain, lekin strong resistance ka samna karna par raha hai. 75.99 ke resistance level ko hit karne ke baad price ne rebound kiya, magar dubara growth ka attempt bhi fail ho gaya. Resultantly, signal area ka breakout hua, magar phir prices neeche gir gayi aur ek rebound note kiya gaya. Is waqt price chart supertrend red zone mein hai, jo selling pressure ko rok raha hai.

Technically, oil prices par downward pressure kaafi strong hai aur abhi session ke dauran 70.60 ke resistance level ke neeche stable hain. Yeh indicate karta hai ke bearish trend kaafi active hai. Intraday scenario mein 69.45 first target ho sakta hai, lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, to bearish trend aur accelerate karega aur prices directly 68.55 tak gir sakti hain. Proposed bearish scenario activate karne ke liye oil prices ka 70.60 ke neeche stable rehna zaruri hai. Agar hourly candle is level ke upar close hoti hai, to downtrend temporarily halt ho sakta hai, aur phir hum 71.70 ke retest ka intezar karenge.



Abhi tak prices weekly lows ke near trade kar rahi hain, aur central support zone par heavy pressure hai. Support area todna abhi confirm nahi hua, jo upward momentum ke liye ek opportunity deta hai. Price ko 74.28 ke upar return karna ho ga aur wahan consolidate karna ho ga. Uske baad rebound ke zariye price 75.99 aur 78.09 ke darmiyan target achieve kar sakti hai.

Agar prices 71.92 pivot level ke neeche girti hain, to current bullish scenario cancel ho jaye ga.

Technical Analysis of Gold
Pichlay week gold prices ne kaafi ziada decline show kiya, aur yeh girawat aur ziada intensify hui. 2738 level par short consolidation ke baad, prices sharply neeche girain aur 2665 ka level tod diya. Thodi si correction ke baad prices ne phir downward trend continue rakha aur 2585 ke near pohanch gayi. Yeh target area achieve ho gaya hai, aur expected scenario pura realize ho chuka hai. Abhi ke liye, price chart supertrend red zone mein hai, jo batata hai ke sellers ka control barkarar hai.

Agar 4-hour chart dekha jaye, to technically price ne 2674 ke breakout ko confirm kar diya hai, jo ke 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level hai. Overall, price abhi 2700 ke psychological resistance ke neeche stable hai, aur simple moving average abhi bhi ek barrier bana hua hai. Agar price 2700 ke neeche consolidate kare, to yeh daily downtrend ke continuation ko confirm karega. First target 2655 ka hai, aur agar yeh level break hota hai, to gold prices aur neeche girengi, jahan next stop-loss 2647 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar 2700 ka resistance tod diya jaye, to yeh bullish momentum ko waapis laayega, aur hum 2727 ke target ki taraf dekh sakte hain.



Abhi prices weekly lows ke near trade kar rahi hain, aur downward trend kaafi dominant hai. Resistance zone test ho chuka hai aur intact raha, jis ne prices ko aur neeche bheja. Downward momentum tabhi maintain hoga agar prices 2625 ke neeche consolidate karein, jo ke ek main support zone hai. Agar is area ka retest aur rebound hota hai, to ek nayi downward wave shuru ho sakti hai, jiska target 2530 aur 2477 ke darmiyan ho ga.

Agar 2665 ke reversal level ko tod diya jaye, to yeh downward trend ke reversal ka signal ho ga.