Gold

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Dollar Strong Hote hi Gold ki Prices mein Bara DownFall dekha Gaya

Gold ki prices Friday ko downfall kar gaye, q k US dollar global trade war ki waja se mukhtalif currencies aur k muqabele mein kafi strong dekhaye deya, iss waja se precious metal jo k kaye weeks se bullish trend mein akher kar losses mein tabdeel ho gaya.

Pehley ke data ke mutabiq US personal spending January me 2.5% y/y barh gaya, jo December ke 2.6% se halka sa kam hai.

US President Donald Trump ne Truth Social platform par announce kiya ke wo Mexico aur Canada se aanay wali imports par 25% tariffs lagane ka plan bana rahe hain jo ke March ke shuruat me lagu hoga.

Gold prices Friday ko European trade me neeche gir gaye, teen hafton ki sabse kam level par aa gaye, aur 2025 me pehli dafa weekly loss record kar rahe hain jab ke US dollar mazid taqatwar ho raha hai.

Yeh sab us waqt ho raha hai jab US personal consumption ka data January ke liye aane wala hai, jo Federal Reserve ke inflation estimates par asar dal sakta hai.

Gold Current Prices
Gold ki qeemat 0.9% gir kar $2851 per ounce ho gayi, jo 6 February ke baad se sabse kam hai, jab ke session-high $2885 record hua.

Thursday ko gold 1.35% neeche gir gaya, jo teen dino me doosri dafa loss hai, jab ke pehle record high $2956 tak pohch chuka tha.

Weekly Trades
Gold is hafte 2.9% neeche gir chuka hai, jo is saal ka pehla weekly loss hoga.

Pichle hafta gold aathwe dfa lagataar profit me tha, jo June 2020 ke baad sabse lambi profit streak thi.

US Dollar
Dollar index 0.2% barh gaya, teesri martaba lagataar gain karta raha, aur 107.45 par pohch gaya, jo do hafte ka high hai.

Mazboot dollar gold futures ko mehnga bana deta hai un logon ke liye jo doosri currencies me trade karte hain.

Trump ne wazaahat ki hai ke Canada aur Mexico se aanay wali imports par 25% tariffs agle hafte se lagu honge, jo pehle April me lagu hone thay. Saath hi China ki imports par 10% tariffs aur EU ki cars aur products par 25% tariffs lagane ka bhi iraada hai.

US Rates
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock ka kehna hai ke monetary policies abhi filhal stable rahengi.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne bhi borrowing costs ko barqarar rakhne ki support di hai.

Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, March me 0.25% interest rate cut hone ke chances sirf 4.5% hain.

Ab sab log US personal consumption data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo inflation ke bare me zyada wazahat karega.

SPDR
SPDR Gold Trust ki holdings 0.86 tons gir kar 906.1 tons ho gayi hain, jo August 2023 ke high 907.82 tons se neeche hain.

Gold Technical Analysis
Friday ko gold bearish retracement ka shikar raha aur $2833 tak gir gaya. Yeh weekly breakdown confirm karta hai, aur agar hafte ka closure bhi neeche raha to aur zyada bearish signal milega.



Agar gold $2853 se neeche close hota hai to selling pressure barhne ke chances hain aur price aur neeche ja sakti hai.

Selling Pressure Intensifies
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ka agla target $2813 hai, magar agar bears aggressive rahe to $2790 tak bhi test ho sakta hai.

Neeche 50-Day Moving Average (MA) jo ke $2769 par hai, support ka kaam de sakti hai. Agar yeh level bhi toot gaya to bearish trend mazid confirm hoga.

Monthly Bearish Shooting Star for February
February ka mahina bearish shooting star candlestick pattern banane ja raha hai. Agar yeh pattern breakdown trigger karta hai to price December ke prior monthly support $2726 tak bhi ja sakti hai.

20-Day MA Marks Key Potential Resistance
Agar koi rally hoti hai to usme resistance 20-Day MA ($2896) aur Tuesday ka low ($2888) par aasakti hai.

Agar price yahan se wapis neeche girti hai to aur zyada bearish momentum develop ho sakta hai.

Gold ki price abhi ek narrow trading range mein nazar aa rahi hai, jahan price Bollinger Bands ke upper half se thoda touch kar rahi hai. Iss se signal milta hai ke bullish momentum abhi strong hai lekin overbought conditions ke indicators bhi maujood hain. RSI indicator, jo ke momentum measure karta hai, abhi 66 ke aas-paas hai – yeh overbought zone ke qareeb hai magar abhi extreme nahi hua. MACD ne recently bearish crossover dikhaya hai, jis ki wajah se short-term correction ke signals generate ho rahe hain. Volume analysis se maloom hota hai ke trading volume moderate hai, jo ke consolidation ko support karta hai.

Gold ke price levels par nazar daalte hue, key support aur resistance zones ko clearly bullet points mein bayaan kia gaya hai:

• Support Levels:
  • S1: $2924.00
    Yeh pehla support level hai jahan pe price ne pehle se buying interest dikhaya hai. Agar price is level ke qareeb girti hai, to buyers re-enter karne ke liye tayyar ho sakte hain.
  • S2: $2935.00
    Is level par technical indicators aur moving averages ka confluence hai, jo ke price ko niche se rokne ka kaam karta hai.
  • S3: $2940.00
    Yeh ek aur critical support zone hai jo price ko barqarar rakhne mein madad karta hai. Agar is level se support mil jaye, to further decline limited reh sakta hai.
• Resistance Levels:
  • R1: $2956.00
    Yeh pehla immediate resistance level hai jahan pe sellers ka pressure nazar aata hai. Agar price is level ko break nahi kar pati, to short-term selling pressure barh sakta hai.
  • R2: $2960.00
    Is level par market mein ek psychological barrier hai, jahan traders profit booking karne lagte hain. Is zone se breakout hone par bullish trend aur mazboot ho sakta hai.
  • R3: $2965.00
    Yeh resistance zone thoda wide hai aur iske upar price ka move karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Agar price R3 ko bhi cross kar leti hai, to naya bullish phase shuru ho sakta hai.

Gold ki price action mein Bollinger Bands ka role kafi aham hai. Bands ke narrow hone ka matlab hai ke volatility abhi kam hai, magar agar price bands ke upper boundary ko repeatedly touch kar rahi hai, to yeh overbought signal deta hai. Yeh situation short-term reversal ka bhi chance provide karti hai, lekin agar bullish momentum sustain rahe, to price gradually resistance zones ko test karegi.



RSI ke hawale se, agar indicator 70 se upar chala jaye to yeh overbought condition confirm ho sakti hai, jis ke baad minor pullback expect kia ja sakta hai. Lekin abhi RSI 66 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke caution ka signal deta hai lekin strong reversal ka nahi. MACD indicator ne abhi hal hi mein bearish crossover dikhaya hai, jis se lagta hai ke selling pressure mein temporary izafa ho sakta hai. Agar MACD crossover ke baad price support levels ko touch karte hue bounce karti hai, to yeh long entry ke liye signal ban sakta hai.

Volume ka analysis yeh batata hai ke market mein liquidity moderate hai. Agar volume sudden surge show karta hai jab price resistance ko test kare, to breakout confirm ho sakta hai. Lekin agar volume low rahe to price reversal ka chance barhta hai.

Fundamental factors bhi gold ke price movement par asar daal rahe hain. US dollar ki weakness ne pehle gold ko support kia hai, lekin ab dollar mein thodi recovery dekhne ko mil rahi hai. US bond yields aur Fed ki monetary policy bhi gold ke demand ko influence karte hain. Agar Fed ki taraf se rate cuts ke signals aate hain, to gold mein long-term bullish trend support ho sakta hai. Magar agar economic data se US dollar mazboot hota hai, to gold par bearish pressure bhi ho sakta hai.

Technical analysis ke hawale se kuch aur important tools ko consider kia ja sakta hai, jaise Fibonacci retracement levels. Agar price pullback ke dauran in levels ko test kare, to yeh additional support/resistance zones provide karte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar price $2924-$2935 ke beech bounce karti hai, to yeh ek long-term buying opportunity ho sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price $2956-$2960 ke zone mein repeatedly reject ho rahi hai, to short-term bearish trades ke liye yeh entry point ban sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Prices Bullish Reverse Back Ho Sakti Hai

Gold abhi waqti tawar par kuch kamzoor to zaroor howa hai, lekin abhi bhi ye bullish trend mein hai. Gold long timeframe ki bullish trend case ab bhi mazboot hai, magar chand rozah soch bearish ho gayi hai kyunki tajir naye maashi khatrona aur markazi bank ki policy ko samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain.
Key Points:

• Gold 9 hafton baad pehli martaba gir gaya, jabke Federal Reserve ki be-yaqini aur mazboot dollar ne qeematon ko dabao mein daal diya, bearish soch ko barhawa mila.
• Fed ka pasandeeda mehngai ka paimana 0.3% barh gaya, jis se umeed hai ke sood ki sharah mein kami dair se aaye gi, jo gold ke qareebi mustaqbil ke liye acha nahi hai.
• Sona $2,858.14 tak gir gaya jabke pehle $2,956.31 ki buland tareen satah chhoo chuka tha. Tajir ab $2,746.58 ko agla target samajh rahe hain.

Kya Fed Ki Mehngai Policy Gold Ki Dilchaspi Ko Kam Kar Rahi Hai?
Federal Reserve ka faisla soney ki qeemat par gehray asar dalta hai, aur tajir isay gahri nazar se dekh rahe hain. Fed ka pasandeeda mehngai ka paimana, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, January mein 0.3% barh gaya, jo umeed ke mutabiq tha. Core PCE, jo khanay peenay aur energy ki qeematain nikal kar dekha jata hai, 2.6% year-over-year barh gaya, jo December ke 2.7% se halka sa kam hai.

Is data ne is baat ko mazid mazbooti di ke Federal Reserve sood ki sharah mein kami karne mein dair karega—aur ye sona ke liye acha nahi hai. Futures market ab bhi June mein rate cut ka 79% imkaan dikhata hai, magar policymaker ihtiyat se kaam le rahe hain. Agar sood ki sharah buland rehti hai, to sona kam dilchasp ban jata hai, kyunki ye kisi bhi tareh ka munafa nahi deta.

Trading War Ka Dabao: Dollar Mazboot, Gold Kamzor
Badhte huye tijarati tana’o ne is haftay soney ke liye mushkilat paida ki, magar is dafa bullion ka safe-haven demand barhne ke bajaye, investors ne U.S. dollar ki taraf rujhan rakha.

President Donald Trump ne tasdeeq ki ke Mexico aur Canada ke maal par 25% aur China ke maal par 10% naye tax March se laagu honge.

Ye mohol soney ke faida mein ja sakta tha, magar is dafa bazar ne cash aur U.S. dollar ko behtar samjha. Dollar Index 0.9% barh gaya, jo 2 hafton ki buland tareen satah thi, jis wajah se sona mehnga ho gaya aur uski demand kam ho gayi.

Kya Profit-Taking aur Deleveraging Soney Ki Kamzori Barha Rahe Hain?
Soney ki qeemat jab $2,956.31 ki buland tareen satah tak gayi, to tajiron ne munafa hasil karne ke liye apni positions bechni shuru kar di. Kitco Metals aur Zaner Metals ke mutabiq, stock bazar ke nuksanat ki wajah se margin calls aayi, aur tajiron ko sona bechna pada. Ye broad deleveraging bhi soney ki qeemat girne ka sabab bana.

Gold Technical Analysis
Haalanki is haftay sona peeche gaya, magar is ki lambi muddat ki bullish position ab bhi mazboot hai. Central bank ki demand, mehngai ka khatra, aur geopolotical tana’o ne ab bhi soney ki qeemat ke neeche ek mazboot support diya hai.

Magar chand rozah dauraan, mazboot dollar, ihtiyat pasand Fed aur profit-taking soney ki growth ko roke sakti hain.

Agar sona $2,832.72 se neeche girta hai, to ye ek 2-3 hafte ki correction shuru kar sakta hai, jisme $2,746.58 ka agla target hoga.

Agar soney ne dubara ooper jaana hai, to kamzor U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve ka narm lahja, ya phir geopolotical tensions ka izafa zaroori hoga. Tab tak, sona dabao mein reh sakta hai, kyunki investors abhi liquidity aur dollar ko bullion par tarjeeh de rahe hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold ki Last Week Downfall Temporary ho Sakta hai

Gold ki prices akhir kaar last week ko fall kar gaye lekin, ye abhi bhi stable nahi hai, aur market ab bhi bullish control mein hai. Gold ki qeemat do hafton ki sab se kam satah par gir gayi, $2867.76 per ounce tak pohanch gayi. Us din, gold $38.91 neeche band hua, jo 1.33% ki girawat thi, aur $2877.07 per ounce par settle hua. Ye girawat bazar me bohot zyada tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab dollar mazid mazboot ho raha hai, jis wajah se gold ki qeemat me utaar-chadhaav investors ke liye ek ahem nuqta ban gaya hai.
Jaisay jaisay risk aversion sentiment barhta ja raha hai, forex bazar me dollar ki demand bhi barh rahi hai, jo seedha gold ko mehnga bana raha hai un logon ke liye jo doosri currencies rakhte hain.

Trump ne announce kiya tha ke Canada aur Mexico par tariffs April me shuru honge, magar baad me wazahat ki ke ye tariffs apni mutayyan tareekh, yani 4 March se hi laagu honge. Bazar ne is policy par foran react kiya aur iska asar gold bazar tak bhi pohancha, jiski wajah se gold ki qeemat neeche gir gayi. Dusri taraf, investors Federal Reserve ki aanay wali monetary policy par bhi fikrmand hain, khaaskar jab U.S. ka January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index jald samne aane wala hai. Bazar ki umeed hai ke Fed shayad mazeed interest rates na ghataye, jo gold ki girti hui qeemat ko aur zyada neeche le ja sakta hai.

Gold ke liye Challenges
Gold ko short-term me neeche ka dabao jhelna par sakta hai, lekin ye trend mazeed bara economic challenges bhi highlight karta hai, khaaskar un mulkon ke liye jo gold ya doosri commodities par zyada inhisaar karte hain.

Gold ki qeemat me girawat sirf investors ka confidence hi kam nahi karti, balki ye poori global economy par ripple effects daal sakti hai. Developing aur emerging economies ke liye, gold prices ka utaar-chadhaav economic stability ka ek ahem hissa hota hai.

Jaisay jaisay global economic uncertainty barhti ja rahi hai, in mulkon ko aur bhi mushkilat ka samna hoga:

Global market ki volatility se kaise nimta jaye?
Ek hi commodity par inhisaar kam karne ke liye economic diversification kaise ki jaye?
International trade tensions aur policy changes ke asrat kaise samjhe aur unse kaise nimta jaye?

Selling Pressure Barhta Jaa Raha Hai
Agar gold ka next lower target dekha jaye to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $2813 par hai. Magar bearish market ki shiddat dekhte hue ye bhi mumkin hai ke price is se bhi neeche chali jaye. Pehle ka high $2790 par tha, jo agla logical target hai, magar agar selling pressure barqarar raha to ye level bhi break ho sakta hai.

Neeche ke price levels ko do mukhtalif indicators support zones ke taur par dikha rahe hain.

Pehla support level 50-Day MA ($2769) hai, jo 50% retracement ke saath converge kar raha hai. Iska matlab hai ke jab gold is potential support zone par pohanchega, tab ek aur trendline bhi dekhni hogi jo us waqt tak support ka kaam kar sakti hai. Lekin agar trendline support dene me nakam hoti hai to mazeed girawat ho sakti hai.

February ka Monthly Bearish Shooting Star
Lambi muddat ka pattern dekha jaye to February ka mahina bearish shooting star candlestick pattern ke saath khatam ho raha hai. Magar ye tab tak bearish confirm nahi hoga jab tak is ka breakdown na ho. Phir bhi, ye mahine ka end ek kamzor position me dikha raha hai.

Mahine ka lowest level $2772 raha hai, jo abhi 50-Day line ke qareeb hai. Iska matlab hai ke gold ek aise zone me hai jahan agar monthly breakdown trigger hota hai to December ke $2726 wale previous resistance ka test bhi ho sakta hai.

20-Day MA Ek Ahem Resistance Ban Sakta Hai
Agar price me thodi si recovery hoti hai to isay closely dekhna hoga, kyunki bearish intraday reversal patterns wapis aa sakte hain. 20-Day MA jo $2896 par hai, ek ahem resistance level ho sakta hai. Isay Tuesday ke low $2888 ke saath mila kar dekha jaye to ek resistance zone ban sakta hai.

Gold Technical Analysis
Jumay ke din gold ne apni bearish retracement ko jari rakha aur naye low $2833 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat ek aur weekly breakdown trigger kar chuki hai, jo three-week low $2853 ke neeche hai. Agar ye hafta is level ke neeche band hota hai to ek aur bearish signal confirm ho jayega.

Agar gold is hafte $2878 (pichle hafte ka low) ya phir three-week low ke neeche band hota hai to ye ek aur signal hoga ke selling pressure barhta ja raha hai aur price lower support levels test karne ki taraf badh sakti hai.

Aaj gold ka price lagbhag $2945 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Technical indicators ke hawale se, price ne kuch consolidation dikhayi hai, magar bullish momentum abhi bhi maujood hai. Lekin, kuch overbought signals bhi nazar aa rahe hain jo short-term correction ka imkaan paida karte hain.

Gold ki price action ko samajhne ke liye sab se pehle hum Bollinger Bands ko dekhtay hain. Aam tor par, Bollinger Bands ko 20-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 2 standard deviations ke hisaab se plot kia jata hai. Aaj gold ka price Bollinger Bands ke upper half ke qareeb hai, jo ke bullish sentiment ko indicate karta hai, magar saath hi overbought condition ka signal bhi deta hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers abhi bhi market mein active hain lekin short-term mein profit booking ki wajah se price mein pullback ho sakta hai.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) ki baat ki jaye to, is waqt RSI ki value 46 ke aas-paas hai, jo neutral se thori bullish bias dikhati hai. Lekin agar RSI 70 ke upar jaye to yeh extreme overbought condition ko zahir karega, jis se short-term reversal ke chances barh sakte hain. MACD indicator mein recent bearish crossover dekhne ko mila hai, jo selling pressure ke izhar ka sabab ban sakta hai. Saath hi, ADX aur ATR jese indicators se maloom hota hai ke volatility moderate hai, lekin ATR ke value se yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke price mein kabhi kabhi tez swings aane ka imkaan hai.



Aaj ke liye hum ne key support aur resistance levels ko bullet points mein outline kia hai:

• Support Levels:
  • $2924.00:
    Yeh pehla support zone hai jahan pe pehle se buying interest nazar aata hai. Agar price is level ke qareeb girti hai, to long-term buyers re-enter karne ke liye taiyar ho sakte hain.
  • $2935.00:
    Is level par technical indicators aur moving averages ka confluence hai, jo price ko niche se rokne ka kaam karta hai.
  • $2940.00:
    Yeh ek aur critical support level hai jo current trading range ko define karta hai. Agar is level ko break kia jaye, to bearish correction ka imkaan barhta hai.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $2956.00:
    Yeh immediate resistance zone hai jahan pe sellers ka pressure nazar aata hai. Price ka is level tak pohanchna mushkil ho sakta hai agar profit booking shuru ho jaye.
  • $2960.00:
    Is level par psychological resistance bhi shamil hai. Agar price is barrier ko cross kar leti hai, to bullish momentum further accelerate ho sakta hai.
  • $2965.00:
    Yeh resistance zone thoda wide hai aur is par market ke major profit-taking orders ho sakte hain. Breakout is level se naya bullish phase shuru kar sakta hai.

Gold ki overall market structure mein, price ne aaj ek narrow consolidation dikhayi hai, jahan par long-term uptrend abhi tak intact hai, lekin short-term volatility aur profit-taking ki wajah se price mein correction ke signals bhi maujood hain. Agar price R1 (lagbhag $2956) ko break karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to short-term bearish bias confirm ho sakta hai aur price support zones ko retest kar sakti hai. Iske baraks, agar bullish momentum sustain rehta hai aur price resistance levels ko break kar leti hai, to new highs ke liye potential targets set ho sakte hain.

Fundamental drivers bhi gold ke liye bohat critical hain. US dollar ki weakness ne pehle gold ko support diya hai, lekin aaj dollar mein thodi recovery ke signals nazar aa rahe hain. Agar US economic data, jaise ke inflation reports aur employment figures, weak aate hain to market mein safe-haven demand barh sakti hai, jisse gold ki price mein further upside support milega. Lekin agar Fed ki monetary policy hawkish rehti hai ya US bond yields high rehte hain, to non-yielding asset jese gold par pressure barh sakta hai.

Is analysis se yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke professional traders apni strategy ko technical indicators aur fundamental factors ke confluence par base karte hain. Agar aap long position consider karna chahte hain, to entry ko support levels jese ke $2924-$2935 ke qareeb plan kia ja sakta hai aur profit target ko resistance levels, jaise ke $2956-$2960, ke aas-paas set kia jaye. Agar aap short trade lena chahte hain, to price ke false breakout aur overbought signals ka intezar kia ja sakta hai, jahan par stop loss ko tight rakhna chahiye aur risk management ko follow karna chahiye.

Ek aur important point yeh hai ke risk management har trader ke liye paramount hota hai. Aap ko apni position sizing, stop loss aur take profit levels ko pehle se determine kar lena chahiye. Market mein volatile conditions mein unexpected news ya economic events ki wajah se tez swings ho sakte hain, jis se aap ka capital nuksan ka shikar ho sakta hai. Is liye disciplined trading aur continuous market monitoring ahem hai.

Summary:

• Gold ki price aaj $2945 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai.
• Bollinger Bands ke signals indicate karte hain ke price upper half mein hai, jo bullish momentum ka izhar karta hai, lekin overbought conditions bhi dekhne ko mil sakti hain.
• RSI neutral se thori bullish hai, lekin extreme overbought zone se door hai.
• MACD recent bearish crossover dikhata hai, jis se short-term selling pressure ka imkaan hai.
• Support levels: $2924, $2935, aur $2940.
• Resistance levels: $2956, $2960, aur $2965.
• Fundamental factors, jaise ke US economic data aur Fed policy, gold ki price ko influence kar rahe hain.
• Traders ko apni trade entries aur exits ko in key levels ke hisaab se plan karna chahiye aur proper risk management ko follow karna chahiye.