Gold

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breakout Momentum Ki Talaash, Key Resistance Levels Ke Darmiyan

Bullish Breakout Ki Koshish
Crude oil girti hui wedge pattern se bullish breakout karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo potential gains ki nishani hai. Iska pehla target 73.27 aur usse upar ke levels hain, jo Fibonacci aur technical signals se support karte hain.



Crude oil ne Thursday ko $70.76 tak barhna dekha, jahan isne 50-Day MA (Moving Average) resistance ko test kiya. Is resistance ke baad, ek chhota pullback dekha gaya. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke din ka low $69.21 20-Day MA ke support ko successfully test kar raha tha. Pehle ke 5 dinon mein se chaar din is line par resistance dekh chuke hain, magar ab yeh support ban gaya hai, jo demand mein behtari ka ishara hai aur mazeed mazbooti ka chance barhta hai.

$70.76 Ke Upar Breakout
Agla bullish signal us waqt aaye ga jab price aaj ke high $70.76 ke upar barh jaaye. Yeh 50-Day line ke upar breakout ko bhi trigger karega. Saath hi, bullish falling wedge pattern (jo purple lines se highlight kiya gaya hai) ka upside breakout kal ke din se shuru ho chuka hai, jab price ne pattern ki top boundary line ke upar daily close diya tha.

Aam tor par, is pattern ke breakout ke baad sharp moves dekhi jaati hain. Yeh pattern ka doosra breakout din hai, aur pehle din ka breakout ek wide-range green candle ke top quarter mein close ke sath confirm kiya gaya tha.

Pehla Upside Target
Pattern se pehla upside target 73.27 par hai, jo 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($72.97) ke kareeb hai. Agla level 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($74.42) par hai, aur agar crude mazeed barhta hai, to yeh 78.6% retracement ($76.47) ki taraf ja sakta hai.

Raaste mein do trendlines ka dhyan rakhein:

• Ek falling trendline, jo ek large symmetrical triangle pattern ki top boundary ko mark karti hai.
• Ek rising trendline, jo pattern ki lower boundary ke across ja rahi hai.

In dono lines par resistance ho sakta hai, lekin agar price in lines ko cross kar leta hai, to yeh strength ka ishara hoga.

Narrowing Range Se Volatility Mein Izafa Ka Imkan
Crude oil ki price pichle chand mahino se compress ho rahi hai, aur narrowing price range volatility mein spike ka ishara deti hai. Filhal, lagta hai ke breakout ke baad price ka rukh upward hoga. Lekin agar price recent swing low $67.11 ke neeche girti hai, to yeh outlook bearish ho sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Technical: A Less Dovish Fed May Reinforce a Medium-Term Corrective Decline

Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies US mein inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa kar sakte hain. Market-transacted inflationary expectations gauge, jaise ke 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates, September 2024 se upar ja rahi hain. Fed apni current dovish monetary policy ko “wait and see” stance mein badalne ka soch sakta hai 18 December FOMC meeting par. Gold (XAU/USD) ke liye US$2,716 ka key medium-term resistance dekhna zaroori hai.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action
Gold ke price actions ne 7% ka minor bounce kiya hai aur US$2,710 ke prior swing level ko 8 November ke baad do dafa test kiya hai; 22 November aur 11 December ko. Lekin significant breakout nahi ho saka US$2,710 ke upar.

13 December, Friday ko yellow metal neeche trade hua aur apne 50-day moving average ke neeche reintegrate kiya, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bulls ab subdued hain jab ke hum iss week ke key event ka samna kar rahe hain: US Federal Reserve ki monetary policy decision aur uske latest economic projections (“dot plot”) ka release 18 December ko.

Fed funds futures market ke participants ne almost certainty ke saath price kiya hai (97.1% chance CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 16 December tak) ke Fed 25 bps ka cut karega, jo iska teesra cut hoga aur Fed funds rate ko 4.25-4.50% par le aayega.

A Less Dovish Fed on the Horizon
Market-transacted financial instruments ab inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa price kar rahe hain, jo 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates ke movements se pata chalta hai. Yeh rates September 2024 ke Fed interest rate cut cycle ke start hone ke baad se upwards trend mein hain aur 16 December 2024 tak 2.40% aur 2.33% par hain, jo Fed ke long-term inflation target 2% se upar hain.

Iska primary catalyst Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies hain, jin mein deeper corporate tax cuts aur US imports par zyada trade tariffs shamil hain, jo 2025 aur uske baad inflationary pressures ko revive karenge.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market ab 2025 mein do aur potential Fed funds rate cuts expect kar rahi hai, jo rate ko 3.75-4.00% par le aayega. Yeh 18 September FOMC meeting ke “dot plot” ke mutabiq projected 3.4% se kam hai, jo 2025 ke liye char rate cuts dikhata tha.

10-Year US Treasury Real Yield ka Bullish Reversal
Pichle hafte, 10-year US Treasury real yield ne Monday, 9 December ko apne key medium-term support 1.90% par retest karne ke baad 16 bps ka significant V-shaped rebound kiya.

Agar yeh 2.29% ke medium-term resistance ki taraf push kare, toh Gold (XAU/USD) ko hold karne ka opportunity cost barh sakta hai aur short to medium-term horizon mein Gold ki bullish strength ko cap kar sakta hai.

Lekin ek zaroori baat yeh hai ke Gold (XAU/USD) ka major uptrend phase, jo October 2023 se place mein hai, abhi intact hai. Trumponomics 2.0 ke trade tariffs component ke longer-term effects aur deglobalization ke escalation ke karan Gold (XAU/USD) ke demand mein izafa ho sakta hai, uski defensive hedging quality ki wajah se.

US$2,716 Key Medium-Term Resistance on Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold (XAU/USD) ke recent all-time high US$2,716 (31 October) ke baad, price actions ne consolidation configuration mein oscillate karna start kiya hai. Ek lingering risk hai ke multi-week corrective decline ho aur 200-day moving average ko retest kare major uptrend phase ke andar, jo 6 October 2023 se shuru hua tha.

Agar US$2,537 ka first medium-term support break ho jaye, toh corrective decline sequence reinforce ho sakti hai, jo agle medium-term support zone US$2,484/415 tak expose kar sakti hai. Yeh ek potential inflection zone ban sakta hai nayi bullish impulsive sequence shuru karne ke liye Gold (XAU/USD) mein.

Dusri taraf, agar US$2,716 ke upar clearance milti hai, toh corrective decline bearish scenario invalidate hoga aur bulls ko agle medium-term resistance zone US$2,850/886 tak le ja sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU/USD) Traders Await Fed Meeting: Kya Prices Increase hogi ya Downfall Karegi?

Gold ke prices mein kami hui hai US Treasury yields ke izafay, profit-taking, aur 2025 ke liye kam dovish Fed outlook ki anticipation ki wajah se. Aane wali Fed meeting aur iske economic projections, khaaskar rate cuts ke hawale se, gold prices par bara asar dalenge. India ke gold imports December mein girne ki umeed hai, festivals ke na hone aur gold ke barhte prices ki wajah se. Analysts ka kehna hai ke 2025 mein gold ka target $3000/oz ho sakta hai, Chinese stimulus aur Lunar New Year ke demand ki wajah se.

Gold Ki Performance Aur Fed Meeting Ka Impact
Gold is hafte struggle kar raha hai, pichle hafte ke selloff ko continue karte hue. US Treasury yields ke izafay, profit-taking, aur 2025 ke liye kam dovish Fed outlook ne is situation ko aur barhawa diya.

Ye selloff precious metal ko wapas us range (2624-2650) tak le gaya hai jisme yeh December 9 ke rally se pehle tha. Kal ki Fed meeting faisla karegi ke year-end tak Gold prices kya karenge.

Gold Traders Ka Fed Conundrum
Market participants mixed feelings ke sath is hafte ki Fed meeting mein ja rahe hain. Faisla toh samajh aata hai, phir bhi market cautious approach kyun apna rahi hai?

Iss haftay ke meeting ka faisla shayad market par zyada asar na kare, lekin updated economic projections aur Fed Chair Powell ki commentary sab ka focus hai.

Pichle mahine se consensus barh raha hai ke 2025 mein Fed se pehle jitne rate cuts ki umeed thi, woh shayad na ho. Yeh zyadatar factors ki wajah se hai, sabse bara US President Donald Trump ka wapas aana.

Fed ne ab tak kaha hai ke woh Trump ki policies ka asar economy par dekhna chahte hain, lekin lagta hai yeh pehle se unke dimaagh mein hai. Yeh updated economic projections ko kitna affect karega?

Yeh wo questions hain jo Gold ke agle moves ko drive kar sakte hain. Abhi ke liye, market December 2025 tak sirf 73bps rate cuts price kar raha hai, jo sirf aglay saal ke liye 50bps cuts banata hai. Agar yahan probabilities badalti hain, toh US Dollar aur Gold prices par bara asar hoga.

India Ke Gold Imports Mein Kami
India ke gold imports December mein sharply girne ki umeed hai, November ke record highs ke baad. Festivals ke na hone aur barhte prices ki wajah se buyers apni purchases delay kar rahe hain, trade aur government officials ke mutabiq.

India duniya ka doosra bara gold consumer hai, aur ye bhi gold ke recent price decline ka ek factor ho sakta hai. November mein gold imports pichle mahine ke comparison mein double hue, record $14.8 billion tak pohanch gaye.

China Stimulus Aur Lunar New Year
Aage dekhte hue, analysts gold ke prospects ke liye positive hain. Target $3000/oz ke kareeb rakha gaya hai. Chinese authorities demand ke weak hone par stimulus barhane ka soch rahi hain.

Retail sales data is hafte sirf 3% YoY tak gir gaya hai, jo pehle ke 4.8% se neeche hai. Stimulus measures se China mein demand barhne ki umeed hai, khaaskar Lunar New Year ke dauran, jab gift-giving traditions ki wajah se jewelry demand barhti hai.

Analysts umeed karte hain ke aglay stimulus measures China ki demand ko improve karenge, 2025 ke liye interesting banate hue.

Technical Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD)

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, Gold four-hour timeframe par bearish trend mein hai, lower highs aur lower lows ke sath. Selloff abrupt raha hai, kisi significant pullback ke bagair.

Abhi ke liye, four-hour candle ka 2660 ke upar close hona zaroori hai structure change ke liye, jo bulls ko motivate kar sakta hai. Yeh recovery ke chances ko barhawa de sakta hai, lekin recent selling pressure ki wajah se buyers cautious hain.

Kal ki Fed meeting ke rhetoric par market participants ka confidence depend karega. 2025 ke liye dovish outlook Gold ko 2700 tak le ja sakta hai, jab ke hawkish take ise 2600 ke neeche bhej sakta hai.

Tuesday ko Gold pressure mein raha, aur ek naye pullback low 2,633 tak gira. Near-term upswing ka 78.6% retracement 2,638 ke kareeb complete hua. Lagta hai ke aaj Gold ka din teesri baar 20-Day MA ke neeche close hoga. Monday aur Tuesday ke highs ne downtrend line par resistance ko test kiya.

Gold pichle hafte downtrend line ke upar breakout kar gaya tha, lekin sustain na kar saka. Friday tak yeh wapas line ke neeche tha. Iske bawajood, aaj ka session din ke price range ke top half aur kal ke low 2,644 ke upar khatam ho sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Kya Fed Policy Bullish Breakout Ko Spark Karegi?

Gold $2,647 ke kareeb trade kar raha hai jabke stronger U.S. bond yields non-yielding assets par pressure daal rahi hain Federal Reserve ki policy decision se pehle. Silver $30.61 ke pivot point ke neeche struggle kar raha hai, Treasury yields aur mazboot U.S. dollar ke wajah se neeche hai. Geopolitical risks, jaise ongoing conflicts, precious metals ke liye safe-haven demand ko barhati hain global uncertainties aur cautious investor sentiment ke darmiyan.

Market Overview
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gir rahi hain aur $2,646 ke kareeb trade ho rahi hain, Wednesday ko $2,642 ka intra-day low touch karne ke baad. Ye downward pressure U.S. Treasury bond yields ke stronger hone ki wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ke cautious approach ki wajah se barh rahi hain future rate cuts ke hawale se. Is se U.S. Dollar aur mazboot ho raha hai, jo non-yielding assets, jaise gold, ki demand kam kar raha hai.

Isi tarah, silver prices bhi pressure mein hain aur $30.42 par trade ho rahi hain, Wednesday ko $30.36 ka intra-day low touch karne ke baad. Treasury yields aur mazboot dollar silver par bhi negative asar daal rahe hain.

Geopolitical tensions, jaise Russia-Ukraine war aur Middle East conflicts, silver ke liye kuch support provide karte hain safe-haven asset ke taur par, lekin Federal Reserve ki policy announcement se pehle traders cautious hain.

U.S. Retail Sales aur Fed Signals Ka Pressure
U.S. Census Bureau ne report kiya ke November retail sales 0.7% barhi, jo expectations (0.5%) se zyada hai aur consumer spending ko strong dikhata hai. Ye positive economic indicator aur resilient growth suggest karte hain ke Federal Reserve January mein rate cuts ko pause kar sakta hai.

Higher bond yields, jaise 10-year Treasury yield apne highest level par pohanchi hai November 22 ke baad, gold aur silver ko kam attractive banate hain. Ek senior market analyst ke mutabiq, “Strong retail data aur Fed ki hawkish tilt precious metals par pressure rakh rahi hai.”

Geopolitical Tensions Safe-Haven Demand Ko Support Deti Hain
Bearish trends ke bawajood, global uncertainties gold aur silver ko kuch support deti hain. Russia-Ukraine war, Syria ki instability, aur unresolved Middle East conflicts market sentiment ko cautious banate hain. Halanki, Gaza mein tension kam hone ke hints hain, lekin risks ab bhi hain jo safe-haven assets ki demand ko drive karte hain.

Short-Term Forecast
Gold $2,647 ke aas-paas pressure mein hai aur bearish momentum $2,651.58 ke neeche barqarar hai. Silver $30.42 par trade kar raha hai aur $30.61 ke resistance ka samna kar raha hai, jo cautious sentiment ko reflect karta hai rising bond yields ke darmiyan.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold prices $2,646.26 par trade kar rahi hain, jo slightly 0.01% neeche hai. Market abhi $2,651.58 pivot point ko test kar raha hai jo upward trendline ke saath align karta hai.

Agar prices is level ke upar breakout karti hain, to bullish shift ho sakti hai, jo resistance levels $2,672.83 aur $2,693.50 ko target karengi. Lekin agar ye breach na ho saka, to gold neeche gir kar $2,632.97 ka support aur usse neeche $2,613.04 ko target kar sakta hai.

50 EMA $2,659.06 aur 200 EMA $2,659.58 par consolidation dikhate hain, jahan prices key averages ke neeche capped hain. Agar $2,651.58 ke upar decisive move ho jaye, to bearish tone reverse ho sakti hai, lekin abhi tak sellers ka control barqarar hai.



Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver $30.42 par trade kar raha hai, 0.37% neeche hai, aur $30.61 pivot point ke neeche pressure mein hai. Ye level ek critical threshold mark karta hai, jahan resistance $30.94 aur $31.39 par hai, jahan momentum bullish shift kar sakta hai.

Agar pivot reclaim na ho saka, to silver neeche gir kar $30.15 aur usse neeche $29.73 ke support levels tak ja sakta hai.

50 EMA $30.75 aur 200 EMA $31.03 par ek bearish setup dikhate hain, jahan prices key averages ke upar recover karne mein struggle kar rahi hain. Agar $30.61 ke upar breakout hota hai, to gains ka rasta khul sakta hai, lekin tab tak bearish tone dominate kar rahi hai aur silver aur downside risks ke liye exposed hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Fed Ke Decision Se Pehle Increase Howa

Gold ke prices European trade mein Wednesday ko barhe, jab short-covering active hui aur US treasury yields ruk gayi.

Yeh faida abhi limited hai kyunke investors Federal Reserve ke policy faislay ka intezar karte huay bade positions lene se guraiz kar rahe hain, jo aaj ke baad expected hai ke iss saal teesri baar interest rates mein cut karega.

Prices
Gold ke prices 0.2% barh kar $2,651.80 per ounce par pohanch gaye, jab session-low $2,642 par record hua.

Tuesday ko, gold 0.3% gira aur week-low $2,633.13 touch kiya.

US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields Wednesday ko 0.2% dip hui aur four-week high 4.442% se neeche aa gayi, jis ne non-yielding assets ko support diya.

Yeh cautious developments us waqt hui hain jab expectations hain ke Federal Reserve January mein interest rates ko change nahi karega.

US Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, agle hafte Federal Reserve ke 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances 97% hain.

Federal Reserve aaj apna last periodic policy meeting conclude karega aur 25 basis points ka rate cut fully expected hai.

Fed US monetary policies aur 2025 tak ke interest rates ke raste par ahem clues provide karega.

SPDR
SPDR Gold Trust ke gold holdings kal unchanged rahi hain 864.19 tons par.

Gold (XAU) Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart – Resistance Par Consolidation
Gold ke daily chart ke mutabiq price 50-day SMA ke kareeb fluctuate kar rahi hai aur 100- aur 200-day SMAs ke upar hai. December ke tight ranges mein consolidation liquidity ke kam hone ki wajah se hai.

In fluctuations ke bawajood, overall trend upward hai. Immediate resistance $2,720 par hai, jabke $2,790 gold market mein aagey barhne ki barrier hai.

Aaj ka Federal Reserve meeting strong volatility la sakta hai. Lekin mazeed gains ke liye $2,720 ke upar break zaroori hai.



Gold 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation
Yeh consolidation gold ke 4-hour chart mein bhi saaf hai. Price boundaries $2,615 aur $2,720 ke darmiyan hain; in mein se kisi ek level ka break aage ka direction tay karega.

RSI ka movement bhi gold market mein consolidation reflect karta hai. Agar price $2,720 ke upar break karti hai, to yeh $2,790 zone tak move initiate kar sakti hai.