Gold

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breakout Momentum Ki Talaash, Key Resistance Levels Ke Darmiyan

Bullish Breakout Ki Koshish
Crude oil girti hui wedge pattern se bullish breakout karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo potential gains ki nishani hai. Iska pehla target 73.27 aur usse upar ke levels hain, jo Fibonacci aur technical signals se support karte hain.



Crude oil ne Thursday ko $70.76 tak barhna dekha, jahan isne 50-Day MA (Moving Average) resistance ko test kiya. Is resistance ke baad, ek chhota pullback dekha gaya. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke din ka low $69.21 20-Day MA ke support ko successfully test kar raha tha. Pehle ke 5 dinon mein se chaar din is line par resistance dekh chuke hain, magar ab yeh support ban gaya hai, jo demand mein behtari ka ishara hai aur mazeed mazbooti ka chance barhta hai.

$70.76 Ke Upar Breakout
Agla bullish signal us waqt aaye ga jab price aaj ke high $70.76 ke upar barh jaaye. Yeh 50-Day line ke upar breakout ko bhi trigger karega. Saath hi, bullish falling wedge pattern (jo purple lines se highlight kiya gaya hai) ka upside breakout kal ke din se shuru ho chuka hai, jab price ne pattern ki top boundary line ke upar daily close diya tha.

Aam tor par, is pattern ke breakout ke baad sharp moves dekhi jaati hain. Yeh pattern ka doosra breakout din hai, aur pehle din ka breakout ek wide-range green candle ke top quarter mein close ke sath confirm kiya gaya tha.

Pehla Upside Target
Pattern se pehla upside target 73.27 par hai, jo 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($72.97) ke kareeb hai. Agla level 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($74.42) par hai, aur agar crude mazeed barhta hai, to yeh 78.6% retracement ($76.47) ki taraf ja sakta hai.

Raaste mein do trendlines ka dhyan rakhein:

• Ek falling trendline, jo ek large symmetrical triangle pattern ki top boundary ko mark karti hai.
• Ek rising trendline, jo pattern ki lower boundary ke across ja rahi hai.

In dono lines par resistance ho sakta hai, lekin agar price in lines ko cross kar leta hai, to yeh strength ka ishara hoga.

Narrowing Range Se Volatility Mein Izafa Ka Imkan
Crude oil ki price pichle chand mahino se compress ho rahi hai, aur narrowing price range volatility mein spike ka ishara deti hai. Filhal, lagta hai ke breakout ke baad price ka rukh upward hoga. Lekin agar price recent swing low $67.11 ke neeche girti hai, to yeh outlook bearish ho sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Technical: A Less Dovish Fed May Reinforce a Medium-Term Corrective Decline

Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies US mein inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa kar sakte hain. Market-transacted inflationary expectations gauge, jaise ke 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates, September 2024 se upar ja rahi hain. Fed apni current dovish monetary policy ko “wait and see” stance mein badalne ka soch sakta hai 18 December FOMC meeting par. Gold (XAU/USD) ke liye US$2,716 ka key medium-term resistance dekhna zaroori hai.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action
Gold ke price actions ne 7% ka minor bounce kiya hai aur US$2,710 ke prior swing level ko 8 November ke baad do dafa test kiya hai; 22 November aur 11 December ko. Lekin significant breakout nahi ho saka US$2,710 ke upar.

13 December, Friday ko yellow metal neeche trade hua aur apne 50-day moving average ke neeche reintegrate kiya, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bulls ab subdued hain jab ke hum iss week ke key event ka samna kar rahe hain: US Federal Reserve ki monetary policy decision aur uske latest economic projections (“dot plot”) ka release 18 December ko.

Fed funds futures market ke participants ne almost certainty ke saath price kiya hai (97.1% chance CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 16 December tak) ke Fed 25 bps ka cut karega, jo iska teesra cut hoga aur Fed funds rate ko 4.25-4.50% par le aayega.

A Less Dovish Fed on the Horizon
Market-transacted financial instruments ab inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa price kar rahe hain, jo 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates ke movements se pata chalta hai. Yeh rates September 2024 ke Fed interest rate cut cycle ke start hone ke baad se upwards trend mein hain aur 16 December 2024 tak 2.40% aur 2.33% par hain, jo Fed ke long-term inflation target 2% se upar hain.

Iska primary catalyst Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies hain, jin mein deeper corporate tax cuts aur US imports par zyada trade tariffs shamil hain, jo 2025 aur uske baad inflationary pressures ko revive karenge.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market ab 2025 mein do aur potential Fed funds rate cuts expect kar rahi hai, jo rate ko 3.75-4.00% par le aayega. Yeh 18 September FOMC meeting ke “dot plot” ke mutabiq projected 3.4% se kam hai, jo 2025 ke liye char rate cuts dikhata tha.

10-Year US Treasury Real Yield ka Bullish Reversal
Pichle hafte, 10-year US Treasury real yield ne Monday, 9 December ko apne key medium-term support 1.90% par retest karne ke baad 16 bps ka significant V-shaped rebound kiya.

Agar yeh 2.29% ke medium-term resistance ki taraf push kare, toh Gold (XAU/USD) ko hold karne ka opportunity cost barh sakta hai aur short to medium-term horizon mein Gold ki bullish strength ko cap kar sakta hai.

Lekin ek zaroori baat yeh hai ke Gold (XAU/USD) ka major uptrend phase, jo October 2023 se place mein hai, abhi intact hai. Trumponomics 2.0 ke trade tariffs component ke longer-term effects aur deglobalization ke escalation ke karan Gold (XAU/USD) ke demand mein izafa ho sakta hai, uski defensive hedging quality ki wajah se.

US$2,716 Key Medium-Term Resistance on Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold (XAU/USD) ke recent all-time high US$2,716 (31 October) ke baad, price actions ne consolidation configuration mein oscillate karna start kiya hai. Ek lingering risk hai ke multi-week corrective decline ho aur 200-day moving average ko retest kare major uptrend phase ke andar, jo 6 October 2023 se shuru hua tha.

Agar US$2,537 ka first medium-term support break ho jaye, toh corrective decline sequence reinforce ho sakti hai, jo agle medium-term support zone US$2,484/415 tak expose kar sakti hai. Yeh ek potential inflection zone ban sakta hai nayi bullish impulsive sequence shuru karne ke liye Gold (XAU/USD) mein.

Dusri taraf, agar US$2,716 ke upar clearance milti hai, toh corrective decline bearish scenario invalidate hoga aur bulls ko agle medium-term resistance zone US$2,850/886 tak le ja sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU/USD) Traders Await Fed Meeting: Kya Prices Increase hogi ya Downfall Karegi?

Gold ke prices mein kami hui hai US Treasury yields ke izafay, profit-taking, aur 2025 ke liye kam dovish Fed outlook ki anticipation ki wajah se. Aane wali Fed meeting aur iske economic projections, khaaskar rate cuts ke hawale se, gold prices par bara asar dalenge. India ke gold imports December mein girne ki umeed hai, festivals ke na hone aur gold ke barhte prices ki wajah se. Analysts ka kehna hai ke 2025 mein gold ka target $3000/oz ho sakta hai, Chinese stimulus aur Lunar New Year ke demand ki wajah se.

Gold Ki Performance Aur Fed Meeting Ka Impact
Gold is hafte struggle kar raha hai, pichle hafte ke selloff ko continue karte hue. US Treasury yields ke izafay, profit-taking, aur 2025 ke liye kam dovish Fed outlook ne is situation ko aur barhawa diya.

Ye selloff precious metal ko wapas us range (2624-2650) tak le gaya hai jisme yeh December 9 ke rally se pehle tha. Kal ki Fed meeting faisla karegi ke year-end tak Gold prices kya karenge.

Gold Traders Ka Fed Conundrum
Market participants mixed feelings ke sath is hafte ki Fed meeting mein ja rahe hain. Faisla toh samajh aata hai, phir bhi market cautious approach kyun apna rahi hai?

Iss haftay ke meeting ka faisla shayad market par zyada asar na kare, lekin updated economic projections aur Fed Chair Powell ki commentary sab ka focus hai.

Pichle mahine se consensus barh raha hai ke 2025 mein Fed se pehle jitne rate cuts ki umeed thi, woh shayad na ho. Yeh zyadatar factors ki wajah se hai, sabse bara US President Donald Trump ka wapas aana.

Fed ne ab tak kaha hai ke woh Trump ki policies ka asar economy par dekhna chahte hain, lekin lagta hai yeh pehle se unke dimaagh mein hai. Yeh updated economic projections ko kitna affect karega?

Yeh wo questions hain jo Gold ke agle moves ko drive kar sakte hain. Abhi ke liye, market December 2025 tak sirf 73bps rate cuts price kar raha hai, jo sirf aglay saal ke liye 50bps cuts banata hai. Agar yahan probabilities badalti hain, toh US Dollar aur Gold prices par bara asar hoga.

India Ke Gold Imports Mein Kami
India ke gold imports December mein sharply girne ki umeed hai, November ke record highs ke baad. Festivals ke na hone aur barhte prices ki wajah se buyers apni purchases delay kar rahe hain, trade aur government officials ke mutabiq.

India duniya ka doosra bara gold consumer hai, aur ye bhi gold ke recent price decline ka ek factor ho sakta hai. November mein gold imports pichle mahine ke comparison mein double hue, record $14.8 billion tak pohanch gaye.

China Stimulus Aur Lunar New Year
Aage dekhte hue, analysts gold ke prospects ke liye positive hain. Target $3000/oz ke kareeb rakha gaya hai. Chinese authorities demand ke weak hone par stimulus barhane ka soch rahi hain.

Retail sales data is hafte sirf 3% YoY tak gir gaya hai, jo pehle ke 4.8% se neeche hai. Stimulus measures se China mein demand barhne ki umeed hai, khaaskar Lunar New Year ke dauran, jab gift-giving traditions ki wajah se jewelry demand barhti hai.

Analysts umeed karte hain ke aglay stimulus measures China ki demand ko improve karenge, 2025 ke liye interesting banate hue.

Technical Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD)

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, Gold four-hour timeframe par bearish trend mein hai, lower highs aur lower lows ke sath. Selloff abrupt raha hai, kisi significant pullback ke bagair.

Abhi ke liye, four-hour candle ka 2660 ke upar close hona zaroori hai structure change ke liye, jo bulls ko motivate kar sakta hai. Yeh recovery ke chances ko barhawa de sakta hai, lekin recent selling pressure ki wajah se buyers cautious hain.

Kal ki Fed meeting ke rhetoric par market participants ka confidence depend karega. 2025 ke liye dovish outlook Gold ko 2700 tak le ja sakta hai, jab ke hawkish take ise 2600 ke neeche bhej sakta hai.

Tuesday ko Gold pressure mein raha, aur ek naye pullback low 2,633 tak gira. Near-term upswing ka 78.6% retracement 2,638 ke kareeb complete hua. Lagta hai ke aaj Gold ka din teesri baar 20-Day MA ke neeche close hoga. Monday aur Tuesday ke highs ne downtrend line par resistance ko test kiya.

Gold pichle hafte downtrend line ke upar breakout kar gaya tha, lekin sustain na kar saka. Friday tak yeh wapas line ke neeche tha. Iske bawajood, aaj ka session din ke price range ke top half aur kal ke low 2,644 ke upar khatam ho sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Kya Fed Policy Bullish Breakout Ko Spark Karegi?

Gold $2,647 ke kareeb trade kar raha hai jabke stronger U.S. bond yields non-yielding assets par pressure daal rahi hain Federal Reserve ki policy decision se pehle. Silver $30.61 ke pivot point ke neeche struggle kar raha hai, Treasury yields aur mazboot U.S. dollar ke wajah se neeche hai. Geopolitical risks, jaise ongoing conflicts, precious metals ke liye safe-haven demand ko barhati hain global uncertainties aur cautious investor sentiment ke darmiyan.

Market Overview
Gold prices (XAU/USD) gir rahi hain aur $2,646 ke kareeb trade ho rahi hain, Wednesday ko $2,642 ka intra-day low touch karne ke baad. Ye downward pressure U.S. Treasury bond yields ke stronger hone ki wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ke cautious approach ki wajah se barh rahi hain future rate cuts ke hawale se. Is se U.S. Dollar aur mazboot ho raha hai, jo non-yielding assets, jaise gold, ki demand kam kar raha hai.

Isi tarah, silver prices bhi pressure mein hain aur $30.42 par trade ho rahi hain, Wednesday ko $30.36 ka intra-day low touch karne ke baad. Treasury yields aur mazboot dollar silver par bhi negative asar daal rahe hain.

Geopolitical tensions, jaise Russia-Ukraine war aur Middle East conflicts, silver ke liye kuch support provide karte hain safe-haven asset ke taur par, lekin Federal Reserve ki policy announcement se pehle traders cautious hain.

U.S. Retail Sales aur Fed Signals Ka Pressure
U.S. Census Bureau ne report kiya ke November retail sales 0.7% barhi, jo expectations (0.5%) se zyada hai aur consumer spending ko strong dikhata hai. Ye positive economic indicator aur resilient growth suggest karte hain ke Federal Reserve January mein rate cuts ko pause kar sakta hai.

Higher bond yields, jaise 10-year Treasury yield apne highest level par pohanchi hai November 22 ke baad, gold aur silver ko kam attractive banate hain. Ek senior market analyst ke mutabiq, “Strong retail data aur Fed ki hawkish tilt precious metals par pressure rakh rahi hai.”

Geopolitical Tensions Safe-Haven Demand Ko Support Deti Hain
Bearish trends ke bawajood, global uncertainties gold aur silver ko kuch support deti hain. Russia-Ukraine war, Syria ki instability, aur unresolved Middle East conflicts market sentiment ko cautious banate hain. Halanki, Gaza mein tension kam hone ke hints hain, lekin risks ab bhi hain jo safe-haven assets ki demand ko drive karte hain.

Short-Term Forecast
Gold $2,647 ke aas-paas pressure mein hai aur bearish momentum $2,651.58 ke neeche barqarar hai. Silver $30.42 par trade kar raha hai aur $30.61 ke resistance ka samna kar raha hai, jo cautious sentiment ko reflect karta hai rising bond yields ke darmiyan.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold prices $2,646.26 par trade kar rahi hain, jo slightly 0.01% neeche hai. Market abhi $2,651.58 pivot point ko test kar raha hai jo upward trendline ke saath align karta hai.

Agar prices is level ke upar breakout karti hain, to bullish shift ho sakti hai, jo resistance levels $2,672.83 aur $2,693.50 ko target karengi. Lekin agar ye breach na ho saka, to gold neeche gir kar $2,632.97 ka support aur usse neeche $2,613.04 ko target kar sakta hai.

50 EMA $2,659.06 aur 200 EMA $2,659.58 par consolidation dikhate hain, jahan prices key averages ke neeche capped hain. Agar $2,651.58 ke upar decisive move ho jaye, to bearish tone reverse ho sakti hai, lekin abhi tak sellers ka control barqarar hai.



Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver $30.42 par trade kar raha hai, 0.37% neeche hai, aur $30.61 pivot point ke neeche pressure mein hai. Ye level ek critical threshold mark karta hai, jahan resistance $30.94 aur $31.39 par hai, jahan momentum bullish shift kar sakta hai.

Agar pivot reclaim na ho saka, to silver neeche gir kar $30.15 aur usse neeche $29.73 ke support levels tak ja sakta hai.

50 EMA $30.75 aur 200 EMA $31.03 par ek bearish setup dikhate hain, jahan prices key averages ke upar recover karne mein struggle kar rahi hain. Agar $30.61 ke upar breakout hota hai, to gains ka rasta khul sakta hai, lekin tab tak bearish tone dominate kar rahi hai aur silver aur downside risks ke liye exposed hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Fed Ke Decision Se Pehle Increase Howa

Gold ke prices European trade mein Wednesday ko barhe, jab short-covering active hui aur US treasury yields ruk gayi.

Yeh faida abhi limited hai kyunke investors Federal Reserve ke policy faislay ka intezar karte huay bade positions lene se guraiz kar rahe hain, jo aaj ke baad expected hai ke iss saal teesri baar interest rates mein cut karega.

Prices
Gold ke prices 0.2% barh kar $2,651.80 per ounce par pohanch gaye, jab session-low $2,642 par record hua.

Tuesday ko, gold 0.3% gira aur week-low $2,633.13 touch kiya.

US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields Wednesday ko 0.2% dip hui aur four-week high 4.442% se neeche aa gayi, jis ne non-yielding assets ko support diya.

Yeh cautious developments us waqt hui hain jab expectations hain ke Federal Reserve January mein interest rates ko change nahi karega.

US Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, agle hafte Federal Reserve ke 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances 97% hain.

Federal Reserve aaj apna last periodic policy meeting conclude karega aur 25 basis points ka rate cut fully expected hai.

Fed US monetary policies aur 2025 tak ke interest rates ke raste par ahem clues provide karega.

SPDR
SPDR Gold Trust ke gold holdings kal unchanged rahi hain 864.19 tons par.

Gold (XAU) Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart – Resistance Par Consolidation
Gold ke daily chart ke mutabiq price 50-day SMA ke kareeb fluctuate kar rahi hai aur 100- aur 200-day SMAs ke upar hai. December ke tight ranges mein consolidation liquidity ke kam hone ki wajah se hai.

In fluctuations ke bawajood, overall trend upward hai. Immediate resistance $2,720 par hai, jabke $2,790 gold market mein aagey barhne ki barrier hai.

Aaj ka Federal Reserve meeting strong volatility la sakta hai. Lekin mazeed gains ke liye $2,720 ke upar break zaroori hai.



Gold 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation
Yeh consolidation gold ke 4-hour chart mein bhi saaf hai. Price boundaries $2,615 aur $2,720 ke darmiyan hain; in mein se kisi ek level ka break aage ka direction tay karega.

RSI ka movement bhi gold market mein consolidation reflect karta hai. Agar price $2,720 ke upar break karti hai, to yeh $2,790 zone tak move initiate kar sakti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Slides Over 1% After Fed's Policy Decision

Gold ke daam Wednesday ko 1% se zyada gir gaye jabke US dollar ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision ke baad apne mukhtalif currency rivals ke muqable mein rally ki.

Federal Reserve K Decision
Federal Reserve ne aaj 25 basis points ka rate cut announce kiya, jo September aur November ke baad ka teesra lagataar rate cut hai.

Iss faislay ke baad interest rates 4.25% aur 4.5% ke darmiyan pohanch gaye hain, jo market analysts ke expectation ke mutabiq tha.

Federal Reserve ka kehna hai ke US economy steady pace par grow kar rahi hai, labor market mein improvement hai, aur unemployment abhi bhi low levels par barqarar hai.

Inflation ko control karne mein progress hui hai aur ise 2% par wapas lane ki koshish jaari hai, lekin inflation abhi bhi “kuch zyada” hai.

September meeting ke baad se, jab pehli dafa 2022 ke baad rate cut hua, Fed ne 100 basis points tak rate cut kiya hai.

Fed ka plan hai ke 2025 mein sirf do rate cuts karega, har ek 25 basis points ka, aur 2026 mein bhi do aur 2027 mein ek rate cut karega. Iss tarah se interest rate eventually 3% par stabilize ho jayega.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ne GDP growth ka estimate iss saal ke liye 2.5% kar diya hai, jo September ke comparison mein 0.5% zyada hai. Agle saal ye growth 1.8% tak slow hone ki tawaqqu hai.

Unemployment ka outlook 4.2% tak reduce kar diya gaya hai, lekin inflation ka outlook barh kar 2.4%, aur core inflation ka 2.8% tak pohanch gaya hai.

Dollar Aur Gold Ke Prices
Dollar index Wednesday ko 0.9% barh kar 107.9 tak pohanch gaya, jisme session ka high bhi 107.9 raha aur low 106.8 raha.

Gold spot prices 1.3% gir kar $2,625.3 per ounce tak gir gaye.

US Stock Indices Aur Fed Ke Faislay Ka Asar
Zyada tar US stock indices ne Wednesday ko marginal gains dikhaye jabke investors Federal Reserve ke monetary policy decision ka intezar kar rahe the.

Federal Reserve ke baare mein tawaqqu thi ke wo 0.25% ka rate cut announce karega, jo baad mein confirm ho gaya.

Iske baad sabka focus Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke press conference par tha jahan wo monetary policy ke agle steps ke baare mein hints denge.

Dow Jones 0.4% ya 177 points barh kar 43,627 points tak pohanch gaya. NASDAQ 0.2% ya 11 points barh kar 6061 points par raha, aur ek aur index 0.1% ya 28 points barh kar 20,135 points par close hua.

USDX Technical Analysis
Dollar ke liye mazeed upside ke chances hain, jahan technical indicators resistance ko 107.50 par point kar rahe hain. Agar Fed ka hawkish stance raha, to dollar 108.00 tak pohanch sakta hai, khaas kar agar dot plot kam rate cuts ko confirm kare.

Gold ke liye support $2,600 par test ho sakta hai agar real yields elevated rahein, lekin institutional demand downside risk ko limit kar sakti hai.



Currency markets mein Powell ke press conference ke dauran zyada volatility expect ki ja rahi hai, jahan traders unke comments ko 2025 ke rate path ke clues ke liye analyze karenge. Dollar ka technical structure abhi bhi bulls ke favor mein hai jab tak wo 106.80 ke upar hai.

Gold Technical Analysis
Gold ke prices Fed ke announcement se pehle traders ke exposure kam karne ke wajah se retreat kar gaye. Precious metal ko turant resistance $2,726 par hai, aur support $2,605 par.

Hawkish Fed outlook gold ke daamon ko neeche le ja sakta hai kyunki higher-for-longer rates non-yielding assets ko pressure mein rakhte hain. Lekin central bank buying aur geopolitical tensions gold ke liye underlying support provide kar sakti hain. UBS ka projection hai ke 2025 mein gold ke daam mazboot performance dikhayenge.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold regains footing and passes $2600 after Fed's decisions

Gold ki qeemat Thursday ko European trade mein 1.5% barh gayi, pehle ke chaar hafton ke lows se upar aa kar, active short-covering ke beech.

Precious metal ne dobara apni position strong ki aur $2600 ka level phir se cross kar liya, jab Federal Reserve ki policy decisions ka asar kam hua aur US dollar apne major rivals ke muqable mein ruk gaya.

Prices
Gold ki qeemat 1.5% barh kar $2622 per ounce tak pohonch gayi, jab ke November 18 ka low $2583 par hit kiya gaya tha.

Wednesday ko, gold ne 2.3% ka nuksan uthaya, jo continuous doosri girawat thi aur November 25 ke baad sabse bari thi, jab dollar aur US treasury yields Federal Reserve ki bullish meeting ke baad barh gaye the.

The Dollar
Dollar index Thursday ko 0.3% gir gaya, jo do saal ke high 108.27 se neeche tha, major rivals ke against.

Yeh developments ahem US data ke release hone se pehle samne aayi hain.

The Fed
Federal Reserve ne aaj 25 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya, jis se rate 4.5% par aa gaya, December 2022 ke baad sabse low. Yeh lagatar teesra rate cut hai.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ne 11-1 majority ke saath rate ko 0.25% kam karke 4.25% se 4.5% ke darmiyan rakha.

Fed ne kaha ke US economy steady pace par grow kar rahi hai, labor market improve ho raha hai, aur unemployment low levels par hai.

Fed ne inflation ko 2% tak lane mein progress ki taraf ishara diya, lekin kaha ke inflation abhi bhi “somewhat high” hai.

September ki meeting ke baad se Fed ne 100 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya hai, jo 2022 ke baad pehla rate cut tha.

Fed ne 2025 mein sirf do interest rate cuts ka plan diya hai, jo 25 basis points har ek ke liye hain, 2026 mein do aur cuts aur 2027 mein ek rate cut. Akhir mein, neutral rate 3% tak pohonchne ka plan hai.

FOMC ne is saal ke GDP growth outlook ko 2.5% tak barha diya hai, jo September ke muqable mein 0.5% zyada hai, lekin agle saal 1.8% tak slow hone ki umeed hai.

Unemployment ke outlook ko 4.2% tak kam kiya gaya hai, lekin inflation outlook 2.4% aur core inflation 2.8% tak barha diya gaya hai.

Powell
Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Wednesday ko kaha ke policymakers inflation ko control karne mein zyada progress dekhna chahte hain, us se pehle ke woh agle saal aur interest rate hikes karein.

US Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, January mein 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances 20% se gir kar sirf 8% tak reh gaye hain.

Ab investors ahem US GDP growth aur unemployment claims data ka intezar kar rahe hain.

SPDR
SPDR Gold Trust ke gold holdings kal 0.29 tons kam hue, jo total 863.9 tons tak pohonch gaye.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis
US Dollar Index ke daily chart ke mutabiq, index ne 107 resistance level ko tod diya hai, jo ek saal tak consolidation ke baad hua. Yeh breakout ek consolidation phase ke baad aaya, jo 105.60 se 107 ke darmiyan tha, aur yeh bullish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.

Inverted head-and-shoulders pattern bhi zahir hai, jiska head pattern double bottom 100.65 support ke aas-paas form hua. 107 ke upar ka breakout ek upward trend ka signal deta hai, jo US Dollar Index ko mazeed barhne ka ishara deta hai.

4-hour chart par, US Dollar Index ascending channel ke andar trade kar raha hai. Index ne ascending channel ki support line par ek double bottom banaya, aur blue dotted trendline ke breakout ne index ko is channel ke midline ki taraf dhakel diya. Is ascending channel ka target 109.70 hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) aur Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Fed Policy ka Gold ke Momentum par Asar, Silver Consolidate Kar Raha Hai

Key Points:

• Gold $2,604 par consolidate kar raha hai, magar strong dollar ki wajah se iske gains limited hain; traders $2,616 pivot ke upar breakout ka intezar kar rahe hain.
• Silver $29.10 par trade kar raha hai, safe-haven demand se support mil raha hai, magar $29.69 pivot ke neeche struggle kar raha hai Fed ki hawkish policies ki wajah se.
• Traders US PCE Price Index ka intezar kar rahe hain jo inflation ke baare me insights dega aur gold aur silver ke near-term trajectory ko shape karega.

Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) apni bullish streak ko barqarar rakhta hua $2,602 ke kareeb trade kar raha hai. Gold ne intraday high $2,604 ko chhua, magar $2,600 ke upar momentum limited hai, jo zyada tar strong US Dollar ki wajah se hai. US Dollar, jo ab apne 2 saal ke highest level par hai, gold ke liye headwinds peda kar raha hai, kyun ke gold ek non-yielding asset hai jo aksar dollar ki weakness ke dauran prefer kiya jata hai.

Federal Reserve ka hawkish tone, jo 2025 mein rate cuts ki slow pace ko dikhata hai, ne greenback ko mazboot banaya hai. Iss policy ki wajah se bond yields upar hain, jo gold ke upside ko limit karte hain.

Geopolitical tensions aur US government shutdown ka khatra equity markets mein uncertainty barhata ja raha hai, jo gold ke safe-haven appeal ko support deta hai. Lekin, mixed economic data ke signals, jaise ke US GDP growth ka 3.1% par ana aur jobless claims ka girna, Fed ke stance ko mazboot karte hain.

Ab traders ka focus US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index par hai, jo ek key inflation metric hai aur Fed ke nazar mein bahut ahmiyat rakhta hai. Yeh report gold ke near-term prices par kaafi asar dal sakti hai.

Silver Benefits from Inflation Hedge Appeal
Silver (XAG/USD) $29.09 par trade kar raha hai aur intraday high $29.11 ko touch kiya. Silver apni dual role ki wajah se support le raha hai, ek safe-haven asset aur ek inflation hedge ke tor par. Geopolitical tensions ke bawajood, silver gold ke muqable mein zyada resilient lag raha hai, kyun ke investors isse economic instability ke khilaf ek strategic hedge samajhte hain.

Lekin, strong US Dollar silver par bhi asar daal raha hai, kyun ke Federal Reserve ki cautious approach ne market enthusiasm ko dampen kar diya hai. Gold ki tarah, silver ka outlook bhi PCE Price Index ke release par depend karega, jo broader market sentiment ko influence karega.

Short-Term Forecast

• Gold: $2,602 ke kareeb consolidate kar raha hai aur dollar strength ki wajah se $2,616 par resistance face kar raha hai.
• Silver: $29.10 par trade kar raha hai, magar oversold RSI ka signal recovery ka chance barhata hai, jo $29.69 pivot ke upar ja sakta hai.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold abhi $2,604.69 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.40% ka increase dikhata hai. Price $2,583.79 ke support level par hai aur 4-hour chart par $2,616.62 ke pivot point ke neeche hai, jo mild bearish sentiment ka ishara deta hai jab tak iske upar breakout na ho.



Resistance Levels:

• Pehla resistance $2,651.28 par hai, aur agar bullish momentum mazboot hota hai toh price $2,690.98 tak ja sakta hai.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI (36) oversold conditions ko dikhata hai, jo recovery ke liye jagah banata hai.
• Lekin, 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) $2,640.41 par downward pressure ko highlight karta hai.

Ek upward trendline gold ke liye structural support provide kar rahi hai, magar jab tak prices pivot point reclaim nahi karti, outlook cautious hi rahega.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver abhi $29.10 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.24% ka increase dikhata hai. Price 4-hour chart par $28.75 ke immediate support ke kareeb hai. Silver $29.69 ke pivot point ke neeche hai, jo bearish momentum ka ishara karta hai jab tak is level ke upar breakout na ho.



Resistance Levels:

• Pehla resistance $30.16 par hai, aur ek strong barrier $31.10 par.
• Deeper support $27.71 par hai, jo critical hai agar bearish trend barh jaye.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI (28) oversold conditions ko dikhata hai, jo short-term recovery ke chances barhata hai.
• Magar, price 50 EMA ($30.32) ke neeche hai, jo bearish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.

Agar silver $29.69 ke upar move karta hai, toh sentiment shift ho sakta hai aur further gains ka rasta khul sakta hai. Lekin jab tak yeh levels cross nahi hote, bearish trend dominate karega.

Economic and Geopolitical Impact on Gold and Silver
Economic uncertainty aur geopolitical issues gold aur silver ke safe-haven demand ko barhate hain. Agar US government shutdown ka khatra barh jata hai ya inflation unexpectedly barhta hai, toh gold aur silver ke prices mein tezi aa sakti hai.

Lekin, strong US Dollar aur Fed ki hawkish policies gold aur silver ke liye consistent headwinds hain. Oil prices ke fluctuations aur China ki weak demand bhi market ko affect kar rahi hain, jo in precious metals ke trajectory ko complex bana rahi hai.

Gold aur silver dono hi critical technical aur macroeconomic levels par hain. Gold ko $2,616 ke pivot point aur silver ko $29.69 ke pivot ke upar breakout ki zarurat hai taake sentiment improve ho. Jab tak yeh levels achieve nahi hote, bearish sentiment dominate karta rahega.

Lekin, upcoming inflation data aur geopolitical developments ke saath, traders ke liye volatility ke liye tayar rehna zaruri hai. Is uncertain environment mein, safe-haven metals ki demand barh sakti hai, lekin dollar aur bond yields ka asar hamesha inke trajectory ko impact karta rahega.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Ki Qeemat Mein 1.5% Ka Izafa Magar Haftay Ki Nuksan Ka Samna Hai

Gold ki price Jumay ke din is liye barh gayi kyun ke dollar apne zyada tar muqablay mein gir gaya, Federal Reserve ke policy decisions ke baad, lekin is ke bawajood sona is haftay mein nuqsan ka samna kar gaya hai.

Michigan University ke data ke mutabiq, consumer confidence index December mein 3.1% barh kar 74 ho gaya, jo ke November mein 71.8 tha.

Hukoomati data ke mutabiq, US mein personal spending November mein 2.4% barh gaya, jo ke pichlay mahine mein 2.3% tha, lekin yeh 2.5% ke andazay se kam tha.

Yeh data Federal Reserve ko yeh samajhne mein madad de sakta hai ke wo 2025 mein interest rate cuts ka pace dheere dheere kar de, jab ke unka recent quarterly outlook report ne pehle hi 2025 mein sirf 50 basis points ke total cuts ka andaza diya tha.

Iske ilawa, US Congress ne aaj ek bill ke haq mein vote diya hai jo ke government ke partial shutdown ko teen mahine ke liye rokega, jo ke funding ki kami ke wajah se ho sakta tha, jab ke budget negotiations tez ho rahi hain.

Dollar index 0.7% gir gaya, 20:16 GMT tak 107.6 par, session mein high 108.5 aur low 107.5 tha.

Gold ke spot prices 1.5% barh kar 20:17 GMT tak $2646.4 per ounce tak pohanch gaye, lekin is ne is haftay mein 1.1% ka nuqsan dekha hai.

Pehle Ke Trend Support Ka Resistance Par Test

Agar hum Monday se le kar Wednesday tak is haftay ka chart dekhein, toh humein resistance ka ek line nazar aati hai jo ke din ke high ke aas paas thi. Is liye, agar Wednesday ke bear trigger ne niche ke liye follow-through kar diya, toh mumkin hai ke sona 20-Day MA par resistance dekhe aur phir niche ki taraf wapis ho jaye.

Agar niche ke targets dekhein, toh pehle target 78.6% retracement level par 2,576 hai, jo is haftay ke low se zyada door nahi hai. Lekin agar prices niche chalti rahti hain, toh 2,537 ka swing low support ke liye test ho sakta hai. Agar hum descending trend channel ka nazar daalain, toh is se yeh dikh raha hai ke 2,537 ka price level neeche tut sakta hai. Us se agla target zone 2,475 se 2,473 ke aas paas ho sakta hai.

Bearish Momentum Ka Istamal Aur 2,575 Ka Target

Kayi indications hain jo is price zone ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Ek declining ABCD pattern (purple) pehle downside target 2,475 tak pohnchta hai. Yeh wahi jagah hai jahan do legs ke darmiyan price ki symmetry hai, aur yeh pivot level ban sakti hai. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level bhi 2,473 par hai. Is ke ilawa, yeh price zone is saal ke pehle half mein support aur resistance dono ke tor par dikhayi diya tha, jo ke July ke swing high se shuru hota hai.

2,664 Ke Weekly High Se Sentiment Mein Tabdeeli

Gold ka breakout 2,626 ke upar resistance ko test karne ke liye raasta tayar kar raha hai, aur niche ke risks 2,473 tak bhi pohnch sakte hain agar bearish momentum barh jaye.

Lekin bearish continuation ke bawajood, outlook tab badal sakta hai agar 2,664 ke weekly high ke upar rally hoti hai. Is se sona 20-Day MA aur trendline ke upar wapis aa jayega. Yeh dekhnay wali baat hai ke weekly chart par sona is haftay 20-Week MA ke neeche gir gaya tha, lekin aaj ke din ke andar wapis 20-Week MA ke upar close hone ka track hai. Iska matlab hai ke 20-Week MA ab support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, jo ke large time frame par bullish hai. Phir bhi, price action aur patterns humein clues denge.

Gold ne Jumay ko 2,632 ka high touch kiya. Yeh kal ke high 2,626 se thoda zyada tha. Aur yeh is waqt strong position mein close hone ki taraf badh raha hai, din ke price range ke top third mein. Iska matlab yeh hai ke yeh 20-Day MA ke aas paas resistance ko test karne ke liye tayar ho sakta hai, jo abhi 2,644 ke aas paas hai, aur saath hi downtrend line bhi wahan hai. Kyun ke yeh do lines recent mein converge kar gayi hain, yeh ek zyada ahm pivot level ho sakti hain.

GOLD

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) aur Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Bullish Momentum ka Daromadar $2,633 aur $30.11 ke Resistance Breaks par hai

Key Points:

• Gold ki keemat $2,625 ke qareeb hai, USD ki mazbooti ki wajah se dabao mein, jahan resistance $2,633 aur support $2,583 par hai.
• Silver $29.68 par trade kar raha hai, $30.11 ke resistance ke qareeb. Agar ye level break ho jata hai to bullish momentum tasdeeq ho sakta hai.
• US Dollar Index inflation data ke baad thoda neeche aaya, jo gold aur silver ki prices par dabao kam kar raha hai.

Market Overview
Gold prices (XAU/USD) ne hafte ki shuruaat mein sust harakat ki aur $2,627 ke qareeb hover karta raha, jahan iska range $2,617.59 se $2,629.30 tha. Precious metal abhi tak US Dollar (USD) ki mazbooti ki wajah se dabao mein hai, jo gold ke upside potential ko limit kar raha hai.

Lekin inflation data umeed se kam honay ke baad dollar ke halka pullback ne gold ko kuch support diya hai, jo economic uncertainty ke liye ek hedge ke taur par dekha jata hai.

US Treasury yields gold par dabao banaye rakhi hain, jabke Federal Reserve ka hawkish stance slower rate cuts 2025 tak show kar raha hai. Mazid, mazboot global stock markets gold ke safe-haven charm ko curb kar rahi hain.

“Geopolitical risks ab bhi gold prices ko support kar rahe hain,” analysts ka kehna hai, jo Eastern Europe aur Middle East ke ongoing conflicts ki taraf ishara karte hain.

Silver Ki Behtari: Safe Haven Investment Ki Talash

Silver (XAG/USD) $29.68 par trade kar raha hai, aur intraday high $29.76 ke qareeb hai. Gold ke muqable mein lower price point ki wajah se silver ek attractive alternative ban raha hai risk-averse investors ke liye. USD ki mazbooti ek challenge zarur hai, lekin silver ko apni dual role (safe-haven aur industrial metal) ki wajah se support mil raha hai.

“Silver ki accessibility aur broad appeal use uncertain times mein ek resilient investment option banati hai,” market experts ka kehna hai. Silver ki recent momentum ko geopolitical tensions aur positive industrial outlook support kar rahe hain.

US Dollar Kamzor, Inflation Cooling Ke Asraat

US Dollar Index (DXY) recent highs se neeche aya hai jab November ke Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index ne cooling inflation ka trend show kiya. Core PCE 2.8% year-over-year bara, jo October ke level se match karta hai, lekin forecast 2.9% se kam hai. Personal income 0.3% aur consumer spending 0.4% barhne ki wajah moderate economic activity ka pata chalta hai.

Aage chal kar, traders Conference Board ka Consumer Confidence Index, jo Monday ko release hoga, closely monitor kar rahe hain future dollar movement ke liye.

Geopolitical tensions aur mixed US economic data gold aur silver ke outlook ko shape karte rahenge, dono metals volatile market mein investor sentiment ke key indicators hain.

Short-Term Forecast

• Gold Prices: $2,625 ke qareeb hain, resistance $2,633 aur support $2,583 par hai.
• Silver: $29.68 par trade kar raha hai, $30.11 break karne ki zarurat hai bullish momentum ke liye.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) $2,625 ke qareeb consolidate kar raha hai, jahan ascending trendline $2,583 ke aas-paas support provide kar rahi hai. Ye upward trendline further declines ko rok rahi hai. Pivot point $2,633 ab ek significant resistance level ke taur par kaam kar raha hai, aur further upside 50 EMA $2,637 par capped hai.



200 EMA $2,650 broader bearish trend ke saath align kar raha hai, jo overall cautious outlook ko reinforce karta hai. Downside par immediate support $2,583 aur uske baad $2,537 par hai, jo bullish momentum maintain karne ke liye zaruri hai.

Ascending trendline bullish foundation zarur provide kar rahi hai, lekin sustained recovery ke liye $2,633 pivot aur 50 EMA ke upar break critical hoga.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) $29.68 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jahan recent lows $28.79 se recovery dekhne ko mili. Ascending trendline isko support provide kar rahi hai. Pivot point $30.11 ek key resistance level ke taur par hai, aur further upside 50 EMA $30.15 par limited hai. Iske baad next significant resistance $30.74 par dekha gaya hai.



200 EMA $30.88 broader bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai, lekin support levels se recovery growing buying momentum ka signal deti hai. Downside par immediate support $28.79 aur uske baad $28.06 par hai, dono current upward trajectory maintain karne ke liye critical hain.

Silver strength show kar raha hai, lekin $30.11 aur 50 EMA ke upar break karna zaruri hoga bullish reversal confirm karne ke liye aur higher levels target karne ke liye.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Emerges

Gold ke prices ne week ki shuruaat neeche ki taraf ki hai jabke US Dollar mazboot ho gaya hai. Yeh mazbooti US government shutdown ke bacha liye jane aur 2025 mein strong dollar ki umeed ki wajah se hai. Gold ki safe haven appeal Syria ke geopolitical risks aur Russia-Ukraine conflict ki wajah se test ho sakti hai. Technical analysis yeh suggest karta hai ke four-hour timeframe par Gold ke liye ek bullish structure nazar aa raha hai, aur agar “Golden Ratio” price level hold karta hai to further upside ki guzarish hai.

Global Markets ka Hal
Global markets surprising taur par aaj kaafi busy hain jabke Christmas holidays qareeb aa rahi hain. Is hafte ki shuruaat thodi choppy aur liquidity kam hone ki umeed thi, lekin Fed aur BoE meetings jo pichlay hafte Thursday ko khatam hui, shayad is halat par asar daal rahi hain.

Lagta hai ke markets abhi bhi pichle hafte ke Central Bank decisions ko digest kar rahe hain. Profit-taking aur year-end repositioning bhi un factors mein shamil ho sakte hain jo moves ko drive kar rahe hain.

Gold ke prices week ki shuruaat peechay se kar rahe hain jabke DXY apni mazbooti ka safar phir se shuru kar chuka hai, Friday ki brief lull ke baad. Jab tak is hafte high-impact data releases nahi aate, Gold last week ke lows aur aaj ke high (2630 handle ke aas paas) ke darmiyan rangebound reh sakta hai.

US Dollar Index ki Mazbooti
Markets abhi bhi Fed ke naye policy outlook ko 2025 ke liye adjust kar rahe hain. US Treasury Yields aur US Dollar week ki shuruaat mazbooti ke saath kar rahe hain.

US Dollar ko aur boost mila jab Congress ne Saturday subah spending legislation pass karke U.S. government shutdown ko roka. Aaj ka poor US data, jisne CB Consumer Confidence number ko 111.7 se 104.7 tak gira diya, Greenback ki advance ko rok nahi saka.

Is hafte thinner liquidity aur repositioning ko factors samjha ja raha hai. Kai analysts expect karte hain ke 2025 mein US Dollar aur zyada strong hoga, jo Greenback ko support karega aur Gold prices ko neeche laa sakta hai.

Week ka Aage ka Hal
Is hafte mid aur low-tier data releases kaafi hain. Main expect karta hoon ke market choppy rehega, lekin aaj ka start dekh kar main galat bhi ho sakta hoon.

Risks abhi bhi geopolitical realm mein hain, Syria ka masla abhi tak solve nahi hua aur Russia-Ukraine conflict chalta hi ja raha hai.

Yahan ki developments risk sentiment par asar daal sakti hain aur Gold ki safe haven appeal ko affect kar sakti hain.

US Dollar aur Gold ka Outlook: Mixed Sentiment
U.S. Dollar ne resilience dikhayi mixed economic data ke baad, jis mein weaker-than-expected durable goods orders aur core durable goods orders ka dip shamil hai. Dollar Index (DXY) apni strength banaye rakha, economic uncertainty aur Federal Reserve ke slow interest rate cuts ke expectations ki wajah se.

Dusri taraf, Gold stable raha $2,618 ke aas paas, geopolitical tensions aur apni safe-haven asset ki role ki wajah se. Lekin Gold ki upside potential limited hai firm U.S. dollar aur rising bond yields ki wajah se, jo ek tug-of-war create karte hain safe-haven demand aur yield-seeking investors ke darmiyan.

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold (XAU/USD) is waqt $2,618.21 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.21% ka modest increase show kar raha hai. Price abhi key pivot point $2,633.32 se thoda neeche hai, jo agle move ko decide karne mein crucial hoga. Agar Gold is level ke upar break karta hai, to yeh agle resistance $2,664.41 ki taraf momentum le sakta hai, jisme agla target $2,692.34 ho sakta hai.

Neeche ki taraf, immediate support $2,586.34 par hai, aur agar yeh level breach hota hai, to Gold $2,554.07 ki taraf gir sakta hai. 50-day EMA jo $2,621.62 par hai, current prices ke saath closely align karta hai, jo consolidation ko reinforce karta hai. Gold ka direction is baat par depend karega ke kya yeh $2,633.32 ko todh kar bullish momentum sustain kar sakta hai ya phir support hold karne mein fail ho jata hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Prices Ka Teesra Lagataar Izafa

Gold ke qeemat European trade mein Monday ko barh gayi, aur chaar hafton ki low se door ho kar teesre din lagataar izafa record karte hue $2600 ke upar apni position barqarar rakhi.

Fed Officials Ki Remarks Ka Intezaar
Market ab kuch Fed officials ke remarks ka intezaar kar rahi hai, jo January mein interest rate cut ke chances ke baare mein clues provide kar sakte hain.

Gold ke qeemat 0.4% barh kar $2633 per ounce tak pohanchi, jabke session-low $2617 tha.

Friday ko gold ne 1.1% ka izafa kiya, jo teesre din ka lagataar faida tha, aur chaar hafton ki lowest level $2583 se door tha.

Pichle hafte gold ki qeemat 0.95% neeche gayi thi, jo ek mahine mein teesra weekly loss tha, bullish Federal Reserve policy meeting ke baad.

US Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, January mein 0.25% Federal Reserve interest rate cut ke chances sirf 9% hain.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Dale aur do aur Fed policymakers ne kaha ke agle saal rate cuts wapas start honi chahiye, lekin yeh kaam dheere ho sakta hai kyun ke recalibration period khatam ho gaya hai.

SPDR Gold Holdings
SPDR Gold Trust mein gold holdings Friday ko 16.66 tons barh gayi, jo January 2022 ke baad se sabse bara daily izafa hai, total holdings 877.40 tons ho gayi hain, jo November 27 ke baad se highest hain.

US Dollar Aur Gold Ka Outlook: Mixed Sentiment
US Dollar ne mixed economic data release hone ke baad resilience dikhayi, jisme weaker-than-expected durable goods orders aur core durable goods orders ka dip shamil tha. Dollar Index (DXY) apni strength barqarar rakha hua hai, ongoing economic uncertainty aur 2025 mein slower Federal Reserve interest rate cuts ki umeed ki wajah se.

Dusri taraf, gold $2,618 ke aas paas stable raha, geopolitical tensions aur safe-haven asset ki apni role ki wajah se. Lekin gold ki upside potential limited hai firm U.S. dollar aur rising bond yields ki wajah se, jo safe-haven demand aur yield-seeking investors ke darmiyan ek tug-of-war create karte hain.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis
Dollar Index (DXY) $108.159 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.07% ka slight izafa show karta hai. Price key pivot point $107.998 ke upar hai, jo bullish potential ko indicate karta hai.

50-day EMA $107.859 upward momentum ko support karta hai, jabke 200-day EMA $107.051 long-term bullish trend ko show karta hai.

Agar DXY immediate resistance $108.541 ke upar break karta hai, to aur zyada gains $108.901 tak ho sakte hain. Lekin agar yeh $107.998 se neeche girta hai, to bearish shift support levels $107.603 aur $107.181 tak le ja sakti hai. Filhal upward channel buying pressure ko support kar raha hai U.S. dollar ke liye.

Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies US mein inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa kar sakte hain. Market-transacted inflationary expectations gauge, jaise ke 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates, September 2024 se upar ja rahi hain. Fed apni current dovish monetary policy ko “wait and see” stance mein badalne ka soch sakta hai 18 December FOMC meeting par. Gold (XAU/USD) ke liye US$2,716 ka key medium-term resistance dekhna zaroori hai.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action
Gold ke price actions ne 7% ka minor bounce kiya hai aur US$2,710 ke prior swing level ko 8 November ke baad do dafa test kiya hai; 22 November aur 11 December ko. Lekin significant breakout nahi ho saka US$2,710 ke upar.

13 December, Friday ko yellow metal neeche trade hua aur apne 50-day moving average ke neeche reintegrate kiya, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bulls ab subdued hain jab ke hum iss week ke key event ka samna kar rahe hain: US Federal Reserve ki monetary policy decision aur uske latest economic projections (“dot plot”) ka release 18 December ko.

Fed funds futures market ke participants ne almost certainty ke saath price kiya hai (97.1% chance CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 16 December tak) ke Fed 25 bps ka cut karega, jo iska teesra cut hoga aur Fed funds rate ko 4.25-4.50% par le aayega.

A Less Dovish Fed on the Horizon
Market-transacted financial instruments ab inflationary expectations mein mazeed izafa price kar rahe hain, jo 5-year aur 10-year US breakeven inflation rates ke movements se pata chalta hai. Yeh rates September 2024 ke Fed interest rate cut cycle ke start hone ke baad se upwards trend mein hain aur 16 December 2024 tak 2.40% aur 2.33% par hain, jo Fed ke long-term inflation target 2% se upar hain.

Iska primary catalyst Trumponomics 2.0 ke proposed policies hain, jin mein deeper corporate tax cuts aur US imports par zyada trade tariffs shamil hain, jo 2025 aur uske baad inflationary pressures ko revive karenge.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, market ab 2025 mein do aur potential Fed funds rate cuts expect kar rahi hai, jo rate ko 3.75-4.00% par le aayega. Yeh 18 September FOMC meeting ke “dot plot” ke mutabiq projected 3.4% se kam hai, jo 2025 ke liye char rate cuts dikhata tha.

10-Year US Treasury Real Yield ka Bullish Reversal
Pichle hafte, 10-year US Treasury real yield ne Monday, 9 December ko apne key medium-term support 1.90% par retest karne ke baad 16 bps ka significant V-shaped rebound kiya.

Agar yeh 2.29% ke medium-term resistance ki taraf push kare, toh Gold (XAU/USD) ko hold karne ka opportunity cost barh sakta hai aur short to medium-term horizon mein Gold ki bullish strength ko cap kar sakta hai.

Lekin ek zaroori baat yeh hai ke Gold (XAU/USD) ka major uptrend phase, jo October 2023 se place mein hai, abhi intact hai. Trumponomics 2.0 ke trade tariffs component ke longer-term effects aur deglobalization ke escalation ke karan Gold (XAU/USD) ke demand mein izafa ho sakta hai, uski defensive hedging quality ki wajah se.

US$2,716 Key Medium-Term Resistance on Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold (XAU/USD) ke recent all-time high US$2,716 (31 October) ke baad, price actions ne consolidation configuration mein oscillate karna start kiya hai. Ek lingering risk hai ke multi-week corrective decline ho aur 200-day moving average ko retest kare major uptrend phase ke andar, jo 6 October 2023 se shuru hua tha.

Agar US$2,537 ka first medium-term support break ho jaye, toh corrective decline sequence reinforce ho sakti hai, jo agle medium-term support zone US$2,484/415 tak expose kar sakti hai. Yeh ek potential inflection zone ban sakta hai nayi bullish impulsive sequence shuru karne ke liye Gold (XAU/USD) mein.

Dusri taraf, agar US$2,716 ke upar clearance milti hai, toh corrective decline bearish scenario invalidate hoga aur bulls ko agle medium-term resistance zone US$2,850/886 tak le ja sakta hai

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold (XAU) aur Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Gold Steady, Fed ki Rate Cuts Slow Hone Par Market Mein Confidence Barh Raha Hai

Key Points:

• Gold apne resilience ko barqaraar rakhta hai bawajood geopolitical tensions aur global uncertainties ke.
• Silver par pressure hai, jo $29.62 par trade kar raha hai, dollar ki strength ke karan.
• U.S. economic data ne softer inflation aur durable goods orders ki girawat reveal ki hai.
• Market Overview
• Gold prices Asian trading session mein $2,616 ke qareeb steady hain, jabke U.S. interest rates ke liye ek cautious outlook support kar raha hai. Precious metal ne stability ko barqaraar rakha hai bawajood U.S. Dollar ki mazbooti ke, jo Federal Reserve ke 2025 mein slow rate cuts ki umeedon ki wajah se support ho raha hai.

Investors adjust kar rahe hain ek aise scenario ke liye jahan federal funds rate 2025 ke end tak 3.9% ke aas paas ho sakta hai, jo pehle ke mukable zyada gradual easing hai.

Fed ka Slower Approach to Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve ke officials ne indicate kiya hai ke rate cuts pehle ke mukable dheere honge kyunki inflation ko curb karne mein progress dheemi ho rahi hai. Inflation concerns ab bhi hain, aur Fed ki policies currency aur commodity markets par ek ahem asar dalti rahengi.

Global events kaise unfold honge, iske bare mein uncertainty hai, lekin ye cautious economic environment gold prices ke liye ek steady foundation provide kar raha hai, bawajood U.S. Dollar ki mazbooti ke.

Investors in signals ko digest karte hue, gold ko ek stable haven ke taur par dekh rahe hain jo uncertainty ke waqt refuge de sakta hai.

Silver Faces Pressure Amid Dollar Strength
Silver, jo $29.62 par trade kar raha hai, ne briefly $29.47 ko touch kiya. Gold ke mukable, silver zyada sensitive hai market ke fluctuations ke liye, aur economic data aur investor sentiment se asar leta hai.

Precious metal par U.S. Dollar ki mazbooti aur Federal Reserve ke slower pace of rate cuts ke expectations ka pressure hai.

Traders Fed ke future actions ke liye clear indications ka intezar karte hain, aur is dauraan silver prices relatively stable hain, magar market volatility challenges paish kar rahi hai.

U.S. Economic Data aur Dollar Strength
U.S. Dollar recent mein ek sharp sell-off ke baad rebound kar gaya hai, jab Fed officials ne kam rate cuts ka signal diya hai. Ye mixed economic outlook ke beech hota hai, jahan inflationary concerns tempered hain softer U.S. PCE data ki wajah se.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, markets January mein interest rates ko 4.25%-4.50% par maintain karne ki 93% chance expect karte hain.

Wahin, November ke liye U.S. Durable Goods Orders 1.1% gir gaye, jabke Consumer Confidence Index 104.7 tak gir gaya, jo incoming administration ki economic policies ke concerns ko reflect karta hai.

Outlook for Gold aur Silver
U.S. economy ke mixed signals ke beech, gold prices steady hain stronger dollar aur tempered inflationary pressures ki wajah se.

Silver volatility ka samna kar raha hai, aur traders global economy aur Fed ke future actions mein developments ko closely monitor karenge.

Short-Term Forecast
Gold prices $2,611 par steady hain, cautious U.S. rate cut expectations ke support se. Silver par pressure hai stronger dollar ki wajah se, jabke market volatility uske short-term outlook ko influence karti hai.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) abhi $2,616.87 par trade kar raha hai, 0.16% ka modest upward movement dikhate hue. Price ek key pivot point $2,621.54 ke qareeb hai, jo agle move ke liye crucial hoga. Agar gold is level ke upar break kar leta hai, to ye immediate resistance $2,652.23 ko test kar sakta hai, aur uske baad $2,687.27 tak ki upside potential hai.



Downside par, support $2,587.60 par hai, aur agar ye level break hota hai, to agla support level $2,560.19 par hoga. 50-day EMA $2,620.20 ke aas paas hai, jabke 200-day EMA $2,640.73 ek bearish outlook suggest karta hai, jab tak gold pivot break karke $2,621.54 ke upar momentum sustain nahi karta.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver (XAG/USD) abhi $29.62 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.11% ki slight decline show karta hai. Price abhi pivot point $29.78 ke neeche hai, jo agle move ke liye crucial hai. Agar silver is level ke upar break kar leta hai, to ye immediate resistance $30.31 ko target kar sakta hai, aur uske baad $31.07 tak potential hai.



Downside par, support $28.79 par hai, aur agar ye level break hota hai, to further declines ho sakti hain, agla support level $28.06 par hoga. 50-day EMA $29.98 aur 200-day EMA $30.76 ek neutral to bearish bias suggest karta hai, aur $29.78 ke upar hold karna ek potential reversal ke liye zaroori hai.

Gold ne apni stability ko barqaraar rakha hai Fed ke slower rate cut approach ki wajah se, jabke silver dollar ki strength ke pressure mein hai. Traders ko cautious rehna hoga, aur global market developments aur Fed policies ko closely dekhte rehna hoga.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Christmas Eve se Pehle $2,610 Par Stable Hai

Gold ki qeemat $2,610 ke aas-paas stable hai, jab ke US Dollar apni strength barqaraar rakhe hue hai. Federal Reserve (Fed) ki taraf se agle saal ke liye kam rate cuts ka signal diya gaya hai, jo Gold par upward pressure ko kam kar raha hai. Saath hi, XAU/USD neechay ki taraf pressure face kar raha hai aur apne 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support ko test kar raha hai.

Market Overview
Gold price $2,611 ke aas-paas relatively steady hai, jab ke market participants US interest rates ke hawale se cautious outlook adjust kar rahe hain. US Dollar ki strength barqaraar hai, jo Fed ke slower rate cut approach ki wajah se supported hai.

Fed officials ka kehna hai ke pehle se anticipate kiye gaye rate cuts se kam cuts expected hain, aur federal funds rate 2025 ke end tak 3.9% tak pohanch sakta hai. Yeh shift slower disinflation process aur Donald Trump ki immigration, trade, aur tax policies ke hawale se uncertainty ki wajah se aaya hai.

Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) ke baad US Treasury yields mein izafa dekhne ko mila, jo Gold ke liye ek aur challenge bana hai. Treasury yields ko holding Gold ka opportunity cost samjha jata hai, jo metal ki latest decline ka ek sabab hai.

Economic Indicators aur Market Impact
Is week, Initial Jobless Claims data jo Thursday ko release hona hai, US Dollar ke liye volatility la sakta hai. Saath hi, Nonfarm Payrolls figures jo January ke pehle hafte mein expected hain, Fed ki decisions ko shape karne mein important role play karenge.

Lekin is tamam developments ke bawajood, Gold abhi bhi pressure mein hai aur current range se bahar nikalne mein naakam hai.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook
Technical perspective se dekha jaye to XAU/USD significant challenges face kar raha hai. Price abhi bhi negative territory mein hai aur indicators weak momentum dikhate hain.



Gold filhaal apne 100-day SMA support ko $2,610 ke kareeb test kar raha hai. Yeh level pichle kuch mahino mein Gold ke liye critical raha hai. Agar price is level ke neeche break karta hai, to aur zyada downside potential dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Agar price bounce karta hai, to $2,650-$2,670 ke resistance range ka samna karna parega, jo ek tough barrier sabit ho sakta hai. Traders is support level ko closely monitor kar rahe hain taake bearish trend ke continuation ya reversal ka signal mil sake.

Gold ki qeemat $2,610 ke aas-paas tight range mein hai, jab ke market Fed policies aur economic developments ka intezar kar raha hai. Abhi ke liye, technical indicators bearish trend ki taraf ishaara karte hain, lekin 100-day SMA ek crucial support point hai.

Traders ko aane wale economic data aur price movements par nazar rakhni chahiye taake kisi bhi unexpected shift ka faida uthaya ja sake.