pakeezabaloch trading journal

BITCOIN ANALYSIS:!

BTC 50-din aur 200-din ke EMAs ke oopar araam se mandla raha hai, qeemat mein tezi ke signal bhej raha hai.

8 April ki buland tareen $72,578 se BTC breakout bells ko 14 March ko $73,808 ke ATH par dor de ga. Taahum, BTC ko $71,500 par muzahimat ko torhna chahiye.

Jumma ko, BTC-spot ETF market ka bahao data sarmaya karoon ki tawajjo ki zamaanat deta hai.

Is ke baraks, $69,000 support level se BTC ki giraawat $64,000 support level par BTC girne ka ishaara de sakti hai.



56.37 ki 14-rozana RSI reading ke saath, BTC zyada khareede gaye ilaqe mein dakhil hone se pehle $73,808 ki buland tareen satah par waapas aa sakta hai.

ETH ANALYSIS!

Ethereum 50-din aur 200-din ke EMAs se oopar baitha hai. EMAs ne qeemat mein tezi ke rajhano ki tasdeeq ki hai.

$3,600 ke handle par ETH ki wapsi 8 April ko $3,730 ki buland tareen satah par jaane ki himayat karegi. 8 April ki oonchai se breakout bells ko $3,835 muzahimat satah par run de sakta hai.

ETH-spot ETF se mutaliq commentary par ghaur karne ki zaroorat hai.

Is ke baraks, $3,480 support level se ETH girne se rishon ko 50-din ke EMA par run milega. 50-din ke EMA se neeche girne se $3,244 support level shuru ho jaye ga.

51.96 ki 14-muddat ki daily RSI reading zyada khareedi hui jagah mein dakhil hone se pehle ETH ko $4,000 tak le jaane ki nishandahi karti hai.



BTC-Spot market ko net outflow ke khatre ka samna hai.

Jumeraat (11 April) ko, BTC mein 0.41% ki kami waqea hui. Juzvi tor par budh se 1.58% faida ko tabdeel karte hue, BTC ne session $70,017 par khatam kiya.

10 April ke liye BTC-spot ETF market ke bahao ke data ne BTC ke liye khareedaron ki maang ko mutasir kiya. Budh ko, BTC-spot-ETF market ne BitMEX research ke mutabiq, $123.7 million ki khali income dekhi. Taahum, Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ne khali ikhraaj mein kami dekhi, is baat ko yaqeeni banaate hue ke BTC-spot ETF market ne musalsal teesre din khali ikhraaj se gharaz kiya.

IBIT numbers ko chhod kar, BTC-spot ETF market ne $100.8 million ka khali ikhraaj dekha.

Budh ko AIIBI ke khali inflows mein tezi se waapsi ke baad, income ka ek aur narm din sarmaya karoon ko kul khali ikhraaj par rad-e-amal zaahir karne ke liye chhod de ga. Is ke bawajood, IBIT doosri sah mahine ke ulaal mein mutasir karna jaari rakhe hue hai.

Bloomberg Intelligence ke senior ETF analyst ka IBIT ke baare mein yeh kehna tha,

"IBIT 50% se zyada hai aur is ne teen mahinon mein $15b nai nqad raqam haasil ki hai, yeh dono number BlackRock ETF se dugna hain aur un ke paas 421 hain. Yeh itna garam hai jitna loha homes ko haasil karta hai.

BTC-spot ETF market ke bahao ke aadad o shumaar ko April mein zyada ahmiyat haasil hai. Bitcoin ko adha karne se supply kam ho jaye gi. BTC-spot ETF market se musalsal maang ek baar adhi dhol ke khatam hone ke baad BTC ko $100,000 ki taraf le jaane mein madad de sakti hai.

EUR USD FORECAST!

Yoorpi Markazi Bank ke ijlas ke ahem natayej ne monetari easing cycle ke waqt ko wazeh kiya. Sood ki sharah mein pehli kami June ke liye ki gayi hai. Majmooi tor par, yeh market ki tawaqo'at ke mutabiq hai, isliye euro mein tezi se kami nahi hui. Khas tor par is baat par ghor karte hue ke wahid currency pehle hi maqami tor par numaya tor par zyada farokht ho chuki hai. Taham, darmiyanai muddat mein dollar batadreej mazboot hoga. Bilashuba, is raaste mein mukhtalif islaahat aur jamood ke adwar honge, lekin ba-alakhir, dollar barabari ke qareeb aa jayega. Tasheeh ki baat karte hue, Amriki currency ki zaroorat se zyada khareedi gayi noayati aur khaali iqtisadi calendar dono ki wajah se, yeh aaj hone ka imkaan hai.

1.0726 ka test MACD line ke zero se girne ke doran hua. Usne sell signal ko aksaya, jis ki wajah se qeemat mein 25 pips se zyada kami waqe hui.

ECB ne sood ki sharahon mein koi tabdili nahi ki, lekin ishara diya ke June se shuru hone wali katotiyan ki soorat mein agar afraat zar mein kami jari rahti hai aur taraqqi ke lehaaz se manfi tabdiliyon ka muzahira nahi karti hai. Darmiyanai muddat mein euro zone ki ma'eeshat ko ma'roofi tor par is se faida pahunchega, lekin filhal, euro ne gir kar rad-e-amal zahir kiya. Agay Germany, France aur Spain ka CPI data hai, is ke baad ECB Executive Board ke rukn Frank Elderson ki taqreer hai. Kamzor data aur narm policy ka muqaffa euro farokht karne ki ek aur wajah hogi.

H-4 Time Outlook:--

EUR/USD faa'el tor par haftay ke doran mandi ka tasub zahir karta hai, harkat 1.5% tak pohanch jati hai. Natijatan, aqtabas 1.0700 ki support level par pahunch gaya.

4 ghante ke chart par, RSI over-sold zone mein mandla raha hai, jis se pata chalta hai ke aala qeemat mein tasheeh ki wajah se ho sakta hai.

Isi chart par, alligator ke MA bearish cycle ki simt ke mutabiq neeche ki taraf jate hain.



Outlook

Zyada farokht hone wale halaat ke bawajood mukhtasir positions ke volume ko barhane ke liye, qeemat ko 1.0700 ki satah se neeche rehna chahiye. Dusri surat mein, satah ek uchhal ke natayej mein, himayat ke tor par kaam kare ga.

Pechida ishaare ke tajziye ke lehaaz se, ishaare mukhtasir muddat aur intra-day adwar mein neeche ki taraf ishara karte hain.

CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS!

Mashriq o wast mein barhti hui kashidgi ki wajah se Jumma ko tail ki qeematon mein izafa hua, jis se supply mein mumkinah rukawat ke khudshat barh gaye. Jughrafiyai siyasi kashmakash par tawajjo ne market ki harkiyat ko zair kiya jis ki wajah se qeemtein kam hosakti hain, jaise ke Amriki sharah e sood mein kami ki tawqee.

10:43 GMT par, light crude oil futures $86.21 trade kar rahe hain, $1.19 ya +1.40%.

IEA ne demand ki peshangoi mein kami kardi

Bain ul aqwami tawanai agency (IEA) ne apni 2024 ki alami tail ki talab mein izafe ki peshangoi ko nichay ki taraf nazar thani ki, jo OECD mumalik mein khepat mein kami aur alami factors ki sargarmiyon mein jari sast rawai ko zahir karta hai. IEA ki taza tarin peshangoi 1.2 million barrel daily (bpd) ki numa ki tawqee krti hai, jo is ke pichle tajziyeh se 130,000 bpd ki kami hai.

Global supply aur demand par out look

Jabke IEA ne apni talab mein izafe ki tawqeat ko kam kiya, is ne yeh bhi ehtilam di ke alami satah par tail ki supply mein 770,000 bpd izafe ka imkan hai. Tawqee hai ke is izafe ki qiyadat ghair OPEC mumalik karenge. Alami iqtisadi sast rawai aur saaf tawanai technologies ko apnane ke bawajood, IEA ab bhi mang mein izafe ki un satahon ko Covid se pehle ke rujhanat ke mutabiq dekhta hai.

Qaleel muddati market ki peshangoi

Mojooda jughrafiyai siyasi tanau ki wajah se Jumma ko qeematon mein izafe ke bawajood, tail ki majmooi market haftawar kami ke liye tayar hai. Jab tak mashriq o wast mein mazeed izafa nahi hota ya supply mein ghair mutawaqqa kami nahi aati, tail ki qeemtein mustahkam ho sakti hain. Tahan, supply mein khilal ka khatra aik ahem factor hai jo market ki naqal o harkat ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Tajiron ko haftay ke aakhir mein kisi bhi ahem jughrafiyai siyasi peshraft par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo ki wajah se tareekhi tor par naye haftay ke aghaz tak tail ki qeematon mein utaar chadhao aya hai.

Technique tajziya

Daili light crude oil futures

Rujhan barh raha hai lekin market jaddojahad kar rahi hai, mojooda qeematon ki satahon par istehkam ya taqseem ki nishandahi kar rahi hai. Ek istehkam mumkinah tor par tezi ka pehlu ho ga, lekin hamein is waqt tak maloom nahi hoga jab tak ke tajir halqiya bulandi ko $87.63 par le kar ooper ke rujhan ki tasdeeq nahi kar lete. Ek taqseem mumkinah tor par mandi ki hogi. $84.55 ke zariye tajarat mamuli rujhan ko niche ki taraf badal de gi, jis ke natije mein $83.96 se $82.68 mein numaya farokht ho jaye gi.

GOLD MARKET!

Tajarti hafte ke doran sone ki market mein ek bar phir tezi aayi, kyunke hum aam tor par bohot zyada raftaar tajarat dekhte rehte hain.



GOLD Weekly Analysis!


Hafte wari chart par sone ne lagaatar teen badi mom-battiyan dikhayi hain, aur hum rishta daar taqat ke ishaare mein 70 ki satah se kaafi oopar hain. Qataar nazr, yeh ek aisi market hai jo peechay hatne ke koi asar nahi dikhha rahi hai, is haqeeqat ke bawajood ke bilkul wazeh tor par, yeh shayad pullback ka istemaal kar sakta hai.

Pullback ko khareedari ke ek achay mauqe ki numaindgi karni chahiye, aur is wajah se mere khayal mein bohot sare log is mein bohot dilchasp laen ge agar aur jab aisa hota hai. Youmiya chart ki bunyad par $2,200 ki satah ke neeche ek bade paimaane par support hona chahiye. Aur yaqeenan, hamare yahan aur wahan ke darmiyani nafsiyati satahain hain, yaani 2323, 2350, waghera. Lihaza, in tamam baton ke saath, main tajwez karta hoon ke agar aap zyada waqt ke frame se tajarat karne ke khwahishmand hain, to shayad ise thamein rakhain. Position ke liye, aap ko apne daakhilay aur khaarji raston ko talash karne ke liye shayad rozana chart par dairl karna pare ga, jaisa ke yeh tha.

Is mor par, is chart mein waqai kuch bhi nahi hai jo yeh tajwez nahi karta ke hum ise balaakhir $2,500 tak pahuncha rahe hain, lihaza woh hadaf bohot zyada khail mein rehta hai jis ke bare mein main kuch arsay se baat kar raha hoon. Agli mom-batti mein hum wahan pohanchte hain ya nahi yeh dekhna baqi hai. Lekin wazeh tor par, wahan bohot sare jughrafiyai siyasi masail hain jo is market ko bohot oopar le ja sakte hain.

Qaleel muddati pullbacks har us cheez se khareede jaate hain jo main is chart par dekh raha hoon, jaisa ke raftaar aam tor par wazeh tor par sanbhala chuki hai. Yeh ek aisi surat hal hai jahan aap is bade paimaane par raftaar ka muqabla nahi kar sakte, aur yeh tasleem karte hain ke hum tawil muddat mein bohot zyada daur mein hain.

Bitcoin Forecast!

Bitcoin market ne aage peechay bohot kuch dekha hai, kyunki hum is market mein bohot zyada jhanjhat se kaam lene ki koshish kar rahe hain aur abhi $14,000 ki barri hud mein trade kar rahe hain.


Bitcoin Weekly Forecast:--

Bitcoin market par ek nazar daalte hue aap dekh sakte hain ke hum tajrubaati haftay ke doran aage peechay chale gaye hain. Aur aam tor par, mujhe lagta hai ke aap ko aisi surat hal mili hai jahan humare paas bohot zyada shor machane wala rawiya hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke humein is bade qadam se zyada kaam karna hoga. Yeh bunyadi tor par "nafah hazam karne wala" hai, jaisa ke market aisa karta hai.

Aur is wajah se, mujhe lagta hai ke aap ko shayad Bitcoin nazar aata hai, main yeh nahi kehna chahta ke kuch na karein lekin aage peechay bohot kuch karein. Humare paas $60,000 ki satah par bade paimane par taawun hai jo tasveer mein farsh aur is se oopar ki peshkash ke liye aayega. Humare paas bohot zyada muzamat hai, jo mere khayal mein $74,000 se shuru hoti hai, lekin shayad oopar $75,000 tak phaili hui hai. Yeh ek bohot bari nafsiyati ahem satah hai jis par bohot se log rad-amal zahir karenge.


Bitcoin takneeki tajziyah

Yeh waqai koi badi hairat ki baat nahi hai kyunki hum aam tor par mustehkam hote rahte hain. Lekin is waqt, aisa lagta hai ke bitcoin dip par khareedari ke mouqe talash karne ke liye aage peechay jana jari rakhega. Yeh ek aisi market hai jis ne pichle do mahino mein bade paimane par hasilat ko hazam karna pada hai is liye thora sa zimni amal maani rakhta hai.

Darhaqiqat, main samajhta hoon ke yeh haqeeqat yeh hai ke chhe hafton ke mustehkam ka amal darhaqiqat ek bohot hi sehatmand alamat hai is haqeeqat ki wajah se ke hum ne taqreeban 6 ya 7 hafton ke doran 92% ka faida uthaya. Is ki wajah se, mujhe lagta hai ke aap ke paas is ezafi raftaar mein se kuch kaam karne ke liye ek khaas waqt hai, aur phir aakhir kar hum agli tang ko shuru kar sakte hain, jo is waqt, mujhe yaqeen hai ke ab bhi zyada hone wala hai.


Is bade paimane par run ko uncha karne ke baad shayad wahan muzamat ki ek hud hoti hai, is liye yeh market ko aage peechay karne ke liye ek khaas miqdaar mein maani rakhta hai. Sawal jo humein dekhna hai, aur main abhi tak is par qail nahi hoon, yeh hai ke hum ek aur topping pattern bana rahe hain ya nahi. Yeh woh cheez hai jis ke liye yeh market jata hai, aur Wall Street ke liye is saari raqm ko ETF mein le jaane aur phir qalin khenchne ke liye yeh ek khaas miqdaar mein maani rakhta hai. Hum dekhein ge. Lekin is waqt, jaise ke cheezein abhi khadi hain, yeh dip market mein khareed bani hui hai. Aur jab tak hum $60,000 se oopar rahte hain, main aam tor par oopar ke rujhan ke bare mein zyada fikrmand nahi hoon.

SILVER

SILVER WEEKLY Technical Analysis:--

Aap ko ek aur bullish hafta chandi ke liye dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo ab $29.50 ke darje ko dhamka raha hai. Ye ek area hai jo pehle significant resistance thi. Is liye, main ye dekhna chahunga ke hum isay continue kar sakte hain ya nahi. Ye zaroori nahi hai ke main is market ko short karon, lekin upar se yahan tak khareedna bohot mushkil hai.

Is ke saath, main samajhta hoon ke $28.50 ke darja support hoga. Agar hum usay tor dete hain, toh ye mumkin hai ke hum $26 tak ja sakte hain. Lekin main sirf abhi is market ko short karne ko nahi dekh raha hoon. Agar hum nedey wale highs ko tor dete hain, jo ke basically $30.09 hain, toh market bohot zyada upar ja sakta hai. Lekin is waqt, is trade ko chase karna bohot zyada khatarnak hai. Ek aise aggressive move ko chase karna mushkil hai, kyunki risk to reward ko define karna bohot mushkil hai.

Aap ko kisi na kisi qisam ka pullback chahiye hota hai taake aap ko kisi na kisi qisam ka value mil sake. Value train $26 pe chali gayi, shayad $24.50 tak. Toh haqeeqat mein, is waqt agar aap upar se khareed rahe hain toh aap aag ke saath khel rahe hain. Agar aap geopolitical situation ko khelna chahte hain, toh sona aap ka trade hai, kyunki chandi ke market ko industrial usage demand bhi affect karta hai. Iske ilawa, "paper silver" market ka lamba arse se manipulation ka silsila hai, is liye yahan caution behtareen hai.

Silver ke markets ki takneeki jaiza.

Aap dekh sakte hain ke humne trading session ke doran kafi zyada rally ki hai, aur hum $29.50 ke darje ko dhamka rahe hain. Is ke saath kaha jaa sakta hai ke hum dekhte hain ke buyers continue karte hain aur is contract ke chhote chhote tukde uthate hain. Aap ek full position ke saath andar nahi daal sakte, aise move ke baad chandi aap ko aksar saza deti hai.

Bilkul sach kaha jaye toh, ye ek market hai jo apne aap ko aage nikal gaya hai. Aur mujhe yeh aam tor par lagta hai ke $28.50 ko aap value ka ek darja samajh sakte hain. Lekin agar hum wahan se tor dete hain, toh hum $26 tak ja sakte hain. Is ke saath, hum ab stretched point pe hain jahan hum major resistance ko test kar rahe hain, aur hum clearly overbought hain. Is ke saath, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke hum is market mein ek mania ke dor mein hain, bilkul jaise hum sonay mein hain.

CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE oil ka technical jaiza

West Texas Intermediate crude oil market mein Jumma ko trading session ke doran kaafi tezi aayi, kyunke esa lagta hai ke khame teel ki qeemat mein numaya izafa jaari hai. Is ke kehne ke saath, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh ek aisi market hai jo upar ki taraf bohot zyada dabao de rahi hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke kaafi waqt diya jaaye to, hum $90 ki satah ki taraf toot jaenge.

Supply ke masail par bohot zyada khadshat hai. Aur yaqeenan, WTI ko is haqeeqat ki wajah se bhi thora sa farogh mil raha hai ke lagta hai ke Americi maeshat sath sath gunguna rahi hai, kyunke yeh woh darja hai jise Americi markets lene ka rajhan rakhti hain. 50 din ka EMA filhal $80 ki satah se bilkul oopar baitha hai, jo ke mere khayal mein is waqt market mein ek kami hai, lekin mein yeh bhi batata hoon ke niche $85 ki satah bhi support hai. WTI teel ne nayi bulandiyo ka tajurba kiya kyunke tajiro ki tawajju mashriq wast mein kashidgi par thi. Haaliya reports se pata chalta hai ke Iran aane wale ghanton mein Israel par hamla kar sakta hai. Wazeh rahe ke tajiro pure hafte se Iran ki janib se jawabi karwai ke muntazir hain, jis ke damshak mein safarat khane par hamla hua hai, lekin Iran ne abhi tak koi peshraft nahi ki.

Technical nukta nazar se, WTI oil ne keya muzahimat ko $85.50 - $86.50 par tay karne ki apni koshishain jari rakhi hain.




Brent crude oil ka technical jaiza

Brent ke bazaroon ke bhi toot phoot ka bohot imkan nazar ata hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke aakhir kar Brent $95 ki satah ki taraf dekh raha hai. $90 ki satah thora sa taawun aur dilchaspi hai, jaisa ke aap dekh sakte hain, aur is khame teel ke grade mein, aap unhe dekh sakte hain.

50 EMA $84.50 ki satah se bilkul oopar baitha hai aur mujhe lagta hai ke market mein aap ki manzil. Zehan mein rakhein ke saal ke is waqt mein aam tor par khame teel ka ek mazboot dour hota hai kyunke safar ki wajah se talab mein izafa hota hai. Aur aisa hotay hue, mujhe lagta hai ke aap ko is parzam ke zariye dekhna hoga. Aur yeh dips market mein bohot zyada kharid raha hai. Hum ne Jumma ke liye ek bohot mazboot shama roshan ki hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke hum zyada jarehanah khareedari dekh rahe hain.

Brent oil ne bhi nayi unchaiyon ka tajurba kiya hai lekin raftaar kho di aur peechay hat gaya. Mashriq wast se ane wali khabrein ane wale dino mein Brent oil ke liye keya mahrek hongi.

RSI itadal pasand ilaqe mein hai, is liye mashriq wast mein kashidgi barhne ki surat mein ulta raftaar hasil karne ke liye kaafi gunjaish mojood hai.

ETH USD

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---


ETH/USD taqreeban 3,478 trade kar raha hai, iss mein takneeki islaah hai kyunkeh yeh ham aahang maslhah pateern ke andar trade kar raha hai. Jab tak token 3,437 ke aas paas iss pateern ke nichle hisse tak na puhnch jaaye, tab tak hamein mazeed mandi ki tehreek dekhne ka imkaan hai.

Ether anay walay dino mein schedule maslhah ke pateern ke andar tajarat kar sakta hai jab tak ke kuch atiraf mein tezi ka wafir na ho jaaye. $3,400 se neeche ka wafir 3,125 ki taraf kami ko tezi kar sakta hai. 3,540 se oopar ka tezi ka wafir tezi ki harkat ko tezi kar sakta hai aur qeemat 3,750 aur yahan tak ke $4,000 ki nafsiyati satah tak puhnch sakti hai.

Hum ne dekha hai ke hafte ke aakhir mein kriptokaransi market ki taarif hoti hai. Isliye, hum samajhte hain ke 3,437 se oopar takneeki achhal 3,600 aur 3,750 ke ahdaaf ke saath khareedari ka mauqa faraham kar sakta hai.

Humain yeh faisla karne ke liye ke kya ether khareedna hai ya bechna hai, iss ham aahang maslhah pateern par poora tawajju dena chahiye. Eagle indicator manfi signal de raha hai. Iss ka matlab hai ke 3,400 se neeche ka wafir ETH/USD ka rujhan badal sakta hai.

EUR USD

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

Euro mazboot mandi ke dabao mein 1.0635 ke ard gird trade kar raha hai aur thakan ke asaar dikh raha hai. Hum umeed karte hain ke EUR/USD joori 1.0620 par waqea -2/8 mire tak puhnch jaye gi, aik aisi satah jo down trend channel ke nichle hisse ke saath milti hai aur jis ko achi himayat ke tor par dekha jata hai.

Rico ke maqsad euro ko 1.0500 tak dabao daalna hai. Hum umeed karte hain ke joori agle chand ghanton mein 1.0620 ke ard gird mazboot himayat hasil kare gi, jo takneeki behtari ka mauqa faraham kar sakti hai. Isliye, EUR/USD 1.0681 par waqea -1/8 mire tak puhnch sakta hai aur 1.0742 ke ard gird down trend channel ke sab se oopar hai.

Euro ne amriki afrat zar ke aadaad o shumar ki roshni mein ham aahangi maslhah ko torne ke baad, EUR/USD channel se neeche gir gaya aur phans gaya, kyun ke yeh dobara nahi bana saka. Isliye, hum ne mandi ki tehreek ke tasalsul ka mushahida kiya.

Uqab ka ishara manfi signal de raha hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke aanay walay dino mein istehkaam aaye ga. Dosri taraf, H4 chart par 1.0620 se neeche wafir aur istehkaam ki surat mein, hum umeed kar sakte hain ke EUR/USD 1.05 ki nafsiyati satah par doob jaye ga.



Takneeki tor par, hum umeed karte hain ke agle chand ghanton mein achhal aaye ga, isliye hum 1.0620 se oopar khareedne ke mauqe talash karenge. 1.0742 se oopar ka wafir euro ne ke rujhan ko badal sakta hai.

CRUDE oil

Khaam tēl kā mustaqbil riyāsathāē muttaḥidah mēin tēl kī qeematon kā ma'eyār hai aur 'ālāmī sataḥ par tēl kī qeematon ke ta'ayyun ke liye ek ḥawālah ke ṭaur par kām kartā hai. Khaam tēl ko halkē aur mīṭhē ke ṭaur par darjah bandī kiyā gayā hai jahān "rōshanī" se muraad us kī kam kathāfat hai aur "mīṭhā" us ke kam sulfur mawād kī nishāndehī kartā hai. Khaam tēl ke mustaqbil ke liye dēlīvri point ōklāhōmā mēin kashing hab hai. Har mustaqbil kā mu'āhadah khaam tēl ke 1,000 bīrl kī numā'indagī kartā hai. Ṭrēḍing eknāmiks kisi bhī dētā kī tasdīq nahīn kartā hai aur aisā karne kī kisī zimmahdārī se inkār kartā hai.

Jum'ah ko doubleyu ṭī ā'ī kroḍ future $86 fī bīrl kī taraf barh gayā, jo 20 aktōbar ke ba'd se buland tarīn sataḥ par band huā, kyunkeh mashriq wasaṭī mēin wusī'at taraqqiyāt ke imkānāt ne mazeed suplā'ī mēin khalal parne ke khadshāt ko janam diyā. Isrā'īl mubīnah ṭaur par aglē 24 se 48 ghanto mēin īrān se barāh rāst hamlaẽ kī tayāri kar rahā hai kyunkeh tehrān ne us se qabl shām mēin apne safārat khānē par mushtaba isrā'īlī hamlaẽ kā jawāb dene kā 'azm kiyā thā. Isrā'īl aur ḥamās ke darmiyān jang bandī ke mazākirāt ke tāzah tarīn daur bhī natā'ij dene mēin nākām rahē, isrā'īlī vazīr a'zam binyamīn nētan yāhū ne kahā kih vō ghazā mēin jang jārī rakhēngē. Maḍalbah kī taraf, maźbūt amrīkī ifrāt zar kē i'adād ō shamār nē fedrul rizrv kī janib sē sharḥ sudh mēin ibtidā'ī katoṭiyōn kī ūmīdōn kō kam kar diyā, jis sē tawānā'ī kī talab kē nuqṭa nazar kō mumkinah ṭaur par nuqṣān pahunchā. Yūrap mēin, pālīsī sāzōn nē jum'at kō pālīsī kī sharḥ kō ko'ī tabdīlī nahīn kī lekin jald hī sharḥōn mēin kamī kē li'ē tayārī kā ishārah diyā.



Brent Crude Oil:--

Brent khaam tēl tawīl muddatī charhṭē hue chīnl kē ūpar ṭūṭ gayā, $90 mārkar sē ūpar jā rahā hai, $91.42 kē qarīb mazāhimat talāsh kar rahā hai. Tijārātī haftē kē āghāz mēin qeemten kam hogayīñ kyunkeh tana'ū kam huā lekin istāl buland hai. Ūpar kī taraf ḍhalwān ṭreind lā'īn (sābikah mazāhimat) kē ūpar ik hōld ail bilz kē li'ē sab sē furī imtiḥān kē ṭaur par zāhir hotā hai. Qeemten yōmīyā $89 sē nichē gir gayīñ lekin yōmīyā kī kam tarīn sataḥ sē bahāl hu'ī haiñ. Jab tak qeemten $85 sē ūpar rahēṅ tab tak ik tēzī kā ta'assub tāmīrī rahatā hai. Tāhṁ, zyādah qillat muddatī bunyādōṅ par, RSI par zyādah kharīdā huā ilāqah mukhtaṣir muddat mēin bēlōṅ kē li'ē ik chēlenj hai. Ākhir mēin, yahāṁ sē wāpsī kē mazeed shāhwāḍ 2020-2022 kē bārē izāfē kē 38.2% rītrisment par achhālkē ḍhārī dārī ōr sarīr dārī kē zari'ē sām'nē ā'ī.

BITCOIN FORECAST!

Dunia k muddat mein madakhlat se middle east ke tanazur mein musallah conflict ki escalation ne Bitcoin ke qeemat ko sub-$65,000 tak le gaya.

BTC Shanivaar ko 3.78% se neeche gira. Ek din pehle 3.70% ki giravat ke baad, BTC session ko $64,881 par khatam kiya.

Iran ka Israel par hamla karne ka news BTC aur chand cryptocurrency market par buyer demand ko asar daal gaya. Investors ko Israel se fauji jawab aur is kshetra aur us ke bahar ke liye mutasir hone wale asraat par ghor karna chahiye.

Taqreeban 12 April ko, BTC-spot ETF market ne net outflows ki $82.8 million. BTC-spot ETF market flow trends ne Shanivaar ko BTC par buyer demand par asar dala.

Magar, ye sell-off Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index par koi asar nahi dala, jo ke Sunday ko 72 par baqi raha. Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index teen sessions tak ke haarne ke bawajood Greed zone mein raha.


Technical Analysis:---

BTC 50-day EMA ke neeche baitha hua hai jabke 200-day EMA ke upar hai. EMAs near-term mein bearish signals bhej rahe hain lekin long-term mein bullish signals.

BTC ka 50-day EMA ke upar se break $69,000 resistance level ki taraf ka move ko support karega. $69,000 handle par wapas aane se 14 March ki Highest All-Time High (ATH) $73,808 par aayega.

Dusri taraf, BTC $64,000 support level ke neeche girne se bearon ko $60,365 support level par jane ka mauqa milega.

14-Daily RSI reading ke mutabiq 41.89, BTC oversold territory mein dakhil hone se pehle $60,365 support level tak gir sakta hai.

CRUDE OIL!

Is haftay, khaam tail ki market kam band hui, nazar sani shuda talab ki paish guftaguon aur jari jughrafiyai siyasi adam istehkam par sarmaya karun ke khadshat ko zahir karti hai. Mandi ke jazbat ko bunyadi tor par Bain ul Aqwami Tawanai Agency (IEA) ki is ki talab mein izafay ke nukta nazar mein tez katoti aur riyastay muttahida mein aala ifrat zar ki wajah se hawa, jis ne sharah mein kami ki tawakulat ko kam kiya hai.

Pichle haftay, Light Crude Oil Futures $1.25 ya -1.44% kam hokar $85.66 par tay hue.




Demand out look aur iqtisadi dabao

IEA ne 2024 mein aalmi satah par tail ki talab mein izafay ke liye apni paishangoi par nazar sani kar ke 1.2 million barrel yomia kar diya, jo ke OPEC ki 2.25 million barrels per day izafay ki zyada tezi ki tawaqo ka bilkul baraks hai. Yeh neeche ki taraf nazar sani tajiron ke darmiyan ek muhtaat lahje ka tareef karti hai, jo pehle hi America mein sakht ifrat zar ki sharah ke asarat se do char hain, musalsal ifrat zar ki wajah se mustaqbil qareeb mein Federal Reserve ki sharah mein kami ki umeedon ko madham kiya ja raha hai, bohot se tajir ab is waqt tak narmi ki tawako nahi kar rahe hain. Mumkinah tor par September. Buland sharah sood iqtisadi sargarmiyon ko rokti hai aur tausee ke zariye, tawanai ki khapat, jo tail ki talab mein kami ka bani ban sakti hai.


Geo-political tensions

Jughrafiyai siyasi tanaua tail ki mandiyon ke liye waaild card bani hui hai. Is haftay ki shah surkhiyon mein sham mein Irani safrat khanay par Israeli hamlay ki ittila ke baad Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan kashidgi ka ghulba raha. Iran ki janib se jawabi karwai ki dhamki, mumkinah tor par Nehr Suez jaise ahem chowkiyon ko nishana banana, market mein ek khatre ka premium mutarif karti hai. Taham, supply chains par asal asar ab tak kam se kam raha hai, kisi bhi qeemat mein izafay par dhakkan rakhta hai. Ukraine aur Russia ke darmiyan jari tanaza ne bhi market par saya dalna jari rakha hai, jis mein achanak izafay ke imkanat tajiron ko bartari par rakhte hain.


Market ka rad-e-amal

In over leaping challenges ke jawab mein, market ne lachak daar lekin muhtaat tajarti pattern ka mazahira kiya hai. Yo US crude bench marks haftay ke aakhir mein neeche khatam hue, is wasee taur jazbat ki aksariyat ko afsos karti hain ke qeemat mein musalsal izafay ke khilaf khatron ke awamil barh rahe hain. Mazeed buraan, Baker Hughes ke taza tareen American rig counting ke adad ne lagaatar chauthe haftay kami ka ishara diya, jo ke maqami pedawar mein mumkinah sust rawi ka ishara deta hai, jo ke agar talab mustehkam rehti hai to qeemat ko sahara de sakti hai.

GOLD FORECAST!

Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan barhti hui jughrafiyai siyasi be chaini ki wajah se sonay ki qeemtein agle hafte buland hone ki tawqaa hai. Guzishta hafte 2,400 dollar fi ounces ki buland tareen satah tak pohanchne ke baad, mashriq wasat mein barhte hue tanazaat ke darmiyan sona sarmaya karoon ke liye bunyadi panahgah bana hua hai.

Guzishta hafte, XAU/USD 14,075 ya +0.60% barh kar, $2344.235 par tay hua. Hafte ki sab se zyada qeemat $2431.59 thi.

Sonay ki qeematon ko mutasir karne walay tafsili waqeat:

Iran ki taraf se Israeli sarzameen par drone hamlay ke aghaaz ke baad barah-e-raast tanaza'a shiddat ikhtiyar kar gaya hai, jo is tarah ki pehli barah-e-raast tasadum ki nishandahi karta hai. Is hamle ko Iran ke rad-e-amal ke tor par dekha ja raha hai jis ka dawa hai ke is mah ke shuru mein Damascus mein is ke qonsul khane par Israeli fazai hamla kiya gaya tha, jis ke natije mein aala ahda daroon ki halakat hui thi. America ne Israel ke saath apne muqaff ko mazboot karte hue rad-e-amal ka izhar kiya hai, aur mumkinah mazeed shamiliat ka ishara diya hai jis se kashidgi mein izafah ho sakta hai.

Iraaqi ghair yaqeeni surat haal mein sonay par us ke asarat:

Haaliya drone hamlon aur jari jarahi tabadlaat ne Iraaqi ghair yaqeeni surat haal ko barha diya hai, sarmaya karoon ko sonay ki taraf ruju karne par majboor kiya hai. Hamlon ke jawab mein Israel aur hamsaya mulk Jordan ki janib se fazai hadood ki bandish ne Iraaqi ghair yaqeeni surat haal ko mazeed barha diya hai. Is tarah ki jughrafiyai siyasi paish raft tareekhi tor par sarmaya karoon ko sonay ki hifazat ki taraf dhakelne ke liye jana jata hai, is tarah us ki qeemat mein izafah hota hai.

Mutawaqqa taraqqi aur market outlook:

Surat-e-hal mutaharrik hai, mazeed barhne ke imkanat ke saath. Kisi bhi nayi fauji karwai ya intiqami iqdaamat ke ilanat se sonay ki qeematon mein izafay ka imkan hai kyunke sarmaya kar ghair yaqeeni surat haal ke darmiyan hifazat ki talash mein hain. Market ke jazbat is waqt khatrey se bachne ki taraf mutawajjah hain, mahfooz panahgah ki hesiyat ki wajah se sonay mein sarmaya kari ki bohot zyada himayat karte hain.

Qaleel muddati market ki peshangoi:

Sonay ki qeemtein ane wale hafte mein apne utaar chadhao ke rujhan ko jari rakhne ka imkan hai, un ki ooper ki raftaar ko barqarar rakhne ya us mein bhi izafah karne ka qawi imkan hai. Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan jari aur mumkinah mustaqbil ki pesh raft market ko mutasir karne ke liye ahem honge, aur tawqaa hai ke sona un logon ke liye ek tarjeehi asasa rahega jo geo political khatron se bachana chahte hain.

Majmooi tor par, Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan barah-e-raast tanaza'a, jari aalami iqtisadi khataat ke saath, is baat ko yaqeeni banata hai ke sona un logon ke liye ek purkashish sarmaya kari hai jo tezi se ghair mustahkam duniya mein istiqrar ke khwahishmand hain.

NG FORE AST!

America ki qudrati gas ke bazaar mein haalhiya rajhaneat:

Guzishta haftay, America ki qudrati gas ka mustaqbil do hafton ki kam tareen satah ke qareeb mustahkam hua, jis ki badi wajah zakhira andozi ke wasee izafay aur talab mein kami ki peeshin goyion ki wajah se, buniyadi tor par Texas mein Freeport LNG barhamdi plant ko feed gas ki supply mein kami ki wajah se.

Qudrati gas $0.015 ya -0.84% kam hokar $1.770 par tay hui.

EIA storage tajziyah:

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) ne 24 billion cubic feet (bcf) ke izafay ke sath aik qabil-e-zikar storage ki tameer ki aghaz ki, jo ke writers ke survey ki bunyad par mutawaqqa 8-bcf se bohot zyada hai aur guzishta saal ishi haftay ke muqable mein 11-bcf izafay ko dugna kar diya hai. Storage ki satah mein ye izafah, jo ke is muddat ke liye 24 bcf ke paanch saal ke ausat izafay ke khilaf hai, zakhira karne ke rajhaneat mein aik qabil-e-zikar tabdeeli ka ishara deta hai, jo market ke utaar chadhao ko wazeh karta hai.

Pedaawar aur rig ki ginti:

Baker Hughes ke adad o shumar ke mutabiq, operational US gas rigs ki tadad kam hokar 109 ho gayi hai, jo January 2022 ke baad sab se kam tadad hai. Ye kami February aur March mein qudrati gas ki qeematon ke 3.5 saal ki kam tareen satah par pahunchne ke baad hai, jis ke natije mein drilling ki sargarmiyan tez hoti hain. Pedaawari sargarmi mein kami market ke shirkao ke liye aik ahem factor hai, kyun ke ye mustaqbil mein qudrati gas ki farahmi mein mumkinah sakhti ki tajwez karta hai.

Spot market ke utaar chadhao:

Spot market mein numaya utaar chadhao dekha gaya. West Texas mein Waha Hub mein qeematain mukhtasir tor par manfi $1.74 per mmBtu par aayi, jo shadeed regional oversupply ki aksariyat karti hain. Is ke baraks, Alberta ke AECO center mein, qeematain $1.00 per mmBtu tak gir gayi, jo October 2022 ke baad sab se kam hai, jo market ki oversynchronization ke darmiyan qeematon mein kami ka rajhane jari rakhte hain.

Talab aur rasad ke rajhaneat:

Nichli 48 American states mein qudrati gas ki pedaawar April mein ausatan 98.8 billion cubic feet daily (bcfd) thi, jo March mein 100.8 bcfd se kam thi. Mazeed baran, LNG feed gas ka volume kam hua, jis mein bade American LNG barhamdi plants mein ausatan bahao March mein 13.1 bcfd se kam hokar April mein 12.5 bcfd ho gaya. Ye kami juzvi tor par Freeport LNG mein jari dekh bhaal aur operational masail ki wajah se hai, jo barhamdi salahiyaton ko numaya tor par mutasir karta hai.

Hafta war peshangoi:

Storage mein mojooda surplus aur talab mein kami ke takhminon ke sath sath LNG ki barhamdi sargarmiyon mein kami ke pesh nazar, anay walay haftay ke liye market ka nukta nazar mandi ka shikar hai. Taham, kam drilling ki sargarmi aur sardi ki peshangoi ki wajah se garmi ki talab mein mumkinah izafah qeematon par kuch upar ka dabao daal sakta hai. Tajron ko qeematon mein mamooli izafay ke imkan ke sath musalsal utaar chadhao ka andaza lagana chahiye, khas tor par agar pedaawar kam rehti hai aur mosmi halaat mulki talab ko barhate hain. Is tarah, fori muddat ke liye muntasib lekin qadre mandi wale moqif ki safarish ki jati hai.

CRUDE OIL

Iran-Israel waqay ke baad tail ki qeematon mein ibtedai kami

Peer ko tail ki qeematon mein kami ka samna karna para, jis ne haftay ke aakhir mein ek jughrafiyai siyasi waqay par rad-e-amal zahir kiya jahan Iran ne Israel par hamla kiya tha. Yeh waqaya mashriq wasti mein tail ke behaao mein mumkinah rukawaton ke bare mein ibtedai khadshat ka baais bana lekin fori tor par tail ki mandi par mehdood fori asar ke tor par andaza lagaya gaya.

Jeo-Political Tanau

300 se zyada mizaailon aur drones ke saath Iran ki jawabi karwai ne teen dehaaiyon mein kisi doosre mulk se Israel par pehla barah-e-raast hamla kiya, jis se wasee tarein ilaqaai tanaza ka khadsha peda ho gaya. Hamlay ke paimane ke bawajood, nuqsaan kam se kam tha, bunyadi tor par Israel ke Iron Dome difa'i nizam ki janib se mizaailon ko moassar tareeqay se rokna tha. Yeh hamla Damascus mein Iran ke qonsul khane par hamlay ke baad howa, jise Iran ne Israel se mansoob kiya, halankeh Israel ne is karwai ki tasdeeq nahi ki hai.

Qaleel Muddati Market ki Peshangoi

Maujooda awamil ke pesh nazar, tail ki market Israel aur Iran ke darmiyan kisi bhi mazeed pesh raft ke liye hassas rehne ka imkaan hai. Agarche fori asar bohot kam raha hai, lekin is mein izafay ka imkaan ab bhi tashweesh ka baais hai. Agar surat-e-haal mazeed tasadam ke baghair mustehkam hoti hai to tail ki qeemtein neeche ki taraf barh sakti hain. Is ke baraks, agar Abnaye Hormuz jaise supply ke raastay mutasir hote hain to ek ahem izafay qeematon ko oopar ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, mumkinah tor par $100 per barrel se tajawuz kar sakta hai. Jughrafiyai siyasi surat hal mein mazeed bigaar na hone ka farz karte hue qaleel muddati nuqta nazar muntaqil tor par mandi ka shikar hai.

Technically Analysis

Daili Light Crude Oil Futures

Halkay khaam tail ke mustaqbil peer ko mamooli rujhan ko neeche ki taraf morne ke baad dabao mein hain. Aisa lagta hai ke kuchh tajir apne pehle hadaf ke tor par $87.68 per qareebi taawun par nazrain jamaaye hue hain.

Mamooli dachkay ke bawajood, darmiyani aur tawil muddati rujhanat 50 din ki harkat paziri ausat $79.74 aur 200 din ki harkat paziri ausat $78.25 se achi tarah maawan hain.

Supply mein rukaawat ke baghair, tezi ke tajir taqat khareedne se gharizan hain. Is ke bajaye, woh munafa ki booking kar rahe hain, ek qadar ke ilaqe mein wapasai ki umeed mein.

ETH USD ANALYSIS!

H-1 Time Frame Outlook:---

Amriki session ke awwal mein, ETH/USD H1 chart par ban'ne waale up trend channel ke andar taqreeban 3,239 trades kar raha hai. $3,000 ki nafsiyati satah tak pahunchne ke baad aur 2,856 ki kam tareen satah par pahunchne ke baad, token ne ek mazboot technical bahali ki aur ab 3,317 par waqe 200 EMA ke ard gard muzahimat satah ke qareeb pahunch raha hai.

Yeh dekhte hue ke Ether tezi ka ishara de raha hai, umeed hai ke agle chand ghanton mein iska izafa jari rahega aur yeh 3,320 (21 SMA) tak pahunch sakta hai. Is satah se oopar, hum umeed kar sakte hain ke yeh taqreeban 3,437 par waapas aa jayega. Token aakhir kar 3,750 par waqe mere ke 4/8 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar ETH ko 3,317 par ya bullish channel ke oopri hisse ke neeche waqe 200 EMA ke ard gard muzahimat hone ki surat mein, hum 3,125 par waqe 2/8 mere ki taraf technical islah ki umeed kar sakte hain. Is ilaqe ke ard gard tajarat ko dobara khareedari shuru karne ka moqa ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai.

Up trend channel ke breakout ki surat mein, ETH/USD apna bearish cycle dobara shuru kar sakta hai aur gir sakta hai bshartekah qeemat 3,100 se kam ho jaye. Is ilaqe ke neeche, hum umeed kar sakte hain ke ETH $3,000 ki nafsiyati satah tak pahunch jaye ga aur yeh balakhir 2,812 par waqe -1/8 mere tak pahunch sakta hai.

Uqaab ka ishara ek musbat ishara de raha hai. Lehaza, agle chand ghanton mein ETH mein izafa jari rehne ki umeed hai, lekin H1 chart ke mutabiq, token thakan ki wazeh alamat dikha raha hai. Lehaza, pehle hum support ki satahon ki taraf technical islah ki umeed karte hain aur phir, hum khareedne ka moqa talash karenge.



EUR USD H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

EUR/USD jode ke liye 4 ghanton ke chart ka lahrah tajziyah badaustur barqarar hai. Hum filhal 3 mein 3 ya c neeche ki taraf rajhan wale hisse ki farzi lahrah ki tameer ka mushahida kar rahe hain. Agar aisa hai to, qeemat mein kami kafi arse tak jari rahegi, kyunke is hisse ki pehli lahrah ne 1.0450 ke nishan ke ard gard apni tameer mukammal kar li hai. Lehaza, is rajhan ke hisse ki teesri lahrah neeche khatam honi chahiye.

Market aahista aahista euro ki mang ko kam karti hai, halankah khabron ka pas manzar Amriki dollar ki mukammal himayat karta hai. 1.0955 ke nishan ko torne ki nakam koshish, Fibonacci ke mutabiq 61.8% ke musawi, 3 ya c mein lahrah 2 ki tameer ki takmeel ka ishara deti hai. Lehaza, jode mein kami ka imkan hai, aur yeh ahem hai.

Kya mukhtalif lahron ka tajziyah ka imkan hai? Hamesha hota hai. Taham, agar pichle saal 3 October se, hum ek naye up ki taraf rajhan wale hisse ka mushahida kar rahe hain, to aakhri neeche ki lahrah kisi bhi saakht mein fit nahi hoti, jo nahi ho sakta. Lehaza, up ki taraf section sirf lahrah ke tajziyah ki mazboot pechidgi ke saath hi mumkin hai.