pakeezabaloch trading journal

GOLD FORECAST UP-TREND

Sone ki marketain intehai bulandi par thori si ruk rahi hain, lekin is waqt woh ab bhi bohat tezi se dikhayi de rahi hain. Is kehne ke saath, sirf aik hi tareeqa hai ke aap is market mein tijarat kar sakte hain, aur aap ko ise zehan mein rakhna zaroori hai.




Gold Technical Outlook:--

Gold unchai se thora sa peechay hat gaya hai, lekin waqai is waqt, mere khayal mein yeh shayad waqt ki baat hai ke humein oopar ki taraf koi bara qadam mile. Agar aur jab aisa hota hai, to mere khayal mein aap ko is ko market ke parzam ke zariye dekhna hoga jo $2,200 ki taraf gamzan rahe ga, aur phir balaakhir $2,500. Yeh aik khaas miqdar mein maani rakhta hai, is baat par ghor karte hue ke dunya bhar ke markazi bank mustaqbil mein apni monitory policy ke saath bohat dheelay rahenge.

Hum abhi maashi cycle ki tabdeeli ke aain mutabiq hain. Yahan tak ke agar humein yahan se kisi qisam ka bara pal beik mil jata hai, to is baat ka bohat imkan hai ke $2075 ki satah ab market mein aik bohat badi manzil hogi jis par har koi sab se zyada tawajju deta hai. Sab ke baad, yeh aik aisa ilaqa hai jo mazi mein kayi baar badi muzahimat ka shikar raha hai.

Lihaza yeh aik khaas miqdar mein maani rakhta hai ke log khaas tor par aik dakhile ke maqam ke tor par is ki taraf mutawajjah honge ya un logon ke liye jo ke abhi tak sone ki kami hai jo bade nuqsaan ke baghair market se bahar nikalne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Balaakhir, yeh aik aisa bazaar hai jis ke bare mein mere khayal mein bohat shor rehta hai. Humen yeh dekhna parega ke yeh kaise chalta hai, lekin sirf aik hi simt hai jis par aap tijarat kar sakte hain, aur woh yaqeenan ulta hai. Mujhe dips khareedna pasand hai, lekin mujhe is market ka peechha karna pasand nahi hai kyunke is mein bohat tezi aayi hai.

Mutabaadil manzar nama yeh ho sakta hai ke hum sirf is ilaqa mein kuch ezafi jhaag ko khatam karne ke liye sirf aik taraf jaate hain aur humein waqai mein koi khaas wapisi nahi milti hai. Yeh bhi qabil amal hoga, lihaza ise zehan mein rakhein. Balaakhir, mein sochta hoon ke sona agar bht zyada jata hai, is liye mein kuch chhoti positions ke saath pemaana hasil kar sakta hoon.

GOLD FORECAST!

Gold 2166 ke ird gird trade kar raha hai, 5/8 mare ke ird gird achi himayat talash karne ke baad achhal raha hai. Ye mumkinah tor par agle chand ghanton mein 2,170 ke ird gird down trend channel ke oopri hisse ko tornay ki koshish kar sakta hai. Is ke baad, hum toq'at kar sakte hain ke tezi se tezi aye gi aur qeemat 2,187 tak pohanch sakti hai. Ek bar is satah se oopar, ye 2,218 par mare ke 7/8 tak pohanch sakta hai.

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

Agar sona agle chand ghanton mein 2,170 (21 SMA) se neeche tajarat karta hai, to outlook manfi rahega aur hum toq'at kar sakte hain ke dhaat gir jaye gi aur 2,130 ke qareeb achhalay gi. Ye aala 2,125 ke qareeb 4/8 mare tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Ye aakhri support sonay ke liye ek point ki khalid ho sakti hai aur belon ko dobara khareednay ki ijazat de sakti hai.

Technically, sona 11 March se zyada khareedi hui satah se oopar trade kar raha hai. Ab hum mushahida karte hain ke uqaab ke isharon ko H4 chart par tezi ke dabao se raahat mili hai. Aanay walay dino mein mumkinah tor par ek technical islah ho gi jise khareednay ke liye signal ke tor par istemal kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar sona 2,187 se oopar mustahkam hota hai to ye agle haftay barh sakta hai aur 2,200 ki khalid satah tak pohanch sakta hai.
Is ke baraks, agar sona 2,125 se neeche aata hai to outlook manfi ho sakta hai aur aala 2,084 par waqe 200 EMA ke ird gird mazboot himayat hasil kar sakta hai.

XAU/USD ke liye hamara outlook is waqt tak mandi ka shikar rahe ga jab tak ke ye qaleel muddat mein 6/8 mare (2,187) se kam ho jaye ya hum is ke 2,080 tak pohanchne ki toq'at rakhte hon.

GBP USD H-1 CHART OUTLOOK:---

Jumeraat ko GBP/USD ne bhi manfi tajarat zahir ki. Yahan tak ke ek utarta hua channel banana bhi mumkin tha, jo filhal reechon ko support karta hai taake hum ye bhi umeed kar sakte hain ke pound mazeed gire ga. Yaad rakhein ke hum pound se wazeh kami ki toq'at kar rahe hain. Shurua mein ye currency baghair kisi maqool wajah ke teen mah tak barhi, phir teen mah tak flat rahi. Hamara manna hai ke ab waqt aya hai ke neeche ki janib mazboot rujhan shuru kiya jaye, lekin yaqeenan, sab kuch market ke jazbat par munhasar hoga. Agar sarmaya kar dolar khareedne se gurez karte hain, kyunke woh bunyadi aur micro iqtisadi pas manzar ko nazara andaz karte hain, to ye jorha musalsal neeche ki taraf harkat shuru nahi karega.

CRUDE OIL

Market ka jaiza:

Ghair mutawaqqa tor par Amreeki afraat-e-zar ke aadad o shumar ke tanazur mein, teel ki qeematon ne apni chaar mah ki buland tareen satah se mamooli paspaayi ka tajurba kiya, manaafi lene aur dollar ki mazbooti se mutasir. Is ke bawajood, khaam teel, beshumar Brent aur WTI ke muqaidon, 4 feesad se zyada ke hafta war izafay ke raaste par hai, jo ke Amreeki maang mein izafay aur indhan ki mandiyo mein sakhti ke ishaare se khush hai.

Dollar ki bulandi aur Federal Reserve ke aqibat na-insafi moqaf ki tawqo qudrati gas aur teel ki qeematon ko doosri currencies ke hamilein ke liye mehngi bana kar aur tawanai ki ashya ke hawale se sarmaya karoon ke jazbaat ko mutasir kar ke dabao daal sakti hai.

Mazeed baraan, jughrafiyai siyasi tanao aur supply mein rukawaton, OPEC aur IEA ki janib se mazboot talab ki peshin goiyan ke saath, teel ki mandiyo ke liye sakht supply aur mazboot talab ka nuqta nazar tajwez karti hai, jo mumkinah tor par qudrati gas aur teel dono ke liye mustaqbil ki qeematon ki raftaar ko mutasir karti hai.




WTI Oil Price Forecast:--


15 March ko, USOIL mein 0.06% ka thoda sa izafa hua, jo $81.04 par trade kar raha hai. Commodity filhaal $81.60 ke apne pivot point se neeche trade kar rahi hai, yeh ek ahem mura hai jo us ki mukhtasir muddat ki samt ka taeen kar sakta hai. Mazahimat ki satah $82.22, $82.84, aur $83.44 par rakhi gayi hai, jo upar ki raftaar ko rok sakti hai.

Is ke baraks, support $80.63 par qaim hai, mazeed hifazati jaal $80.04 aur $79.57 ke saath, kisi bhi kami ko befur karne ke liye ahem hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ki tafseelat faraham nahi ki gayi hain, lekin balatarbait $79.07 aur $77.51 par 50-day aur 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), qeematon ke liye bunyadi himayat ka mashwara dete hain.



Brent Oil Price Forecast:--

UKOIL 0.14% barh kar $85.18 par trade hua. $85.67 ke is ke pivot point se bilkul neeche trading, UKOIL ki agli chalien ahem ho sakti hain. Mazahimati satah ka khaka $86.43, $87.13, aur $87.75 hai, jo upar ki raftaar ke liye mumkinah rukawaton lata hai.

Is ke baraks, support $84.74 par pai jati hai, mazeed satah ke saath $84.15 aur $83.70, neeche ki taraf rujhanat ka muqabla karne ke liye ahem mura faraham karte hain. Balatarbait $83.23 aur $82.03 par 50-din aur 200-din ki Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), qeematon ke liye ek muawan bunyadi nishandehi karte hain.

Mojooda tajziya $85.67 se neeche mandi ka rujhan batata hai, is marker ko aboor karne par tezi ki tabdeeli ke mauqe ke saath.

BITCOIN FORECAST!

Bitcoin ka qeemat tezi se barhne ke baad, BTC/USD par beilon ko muflooj kar diya gaya hai. Federal funds ki shirah 5.5 feesad par tawil arsay tak barqarar rakhne ke khauf ne Bitcoin ko patthar ki tarah gira diya hai. Pore par khatra asasa tabqa ke liye rally ke ahem drivers mein se aik wem sabit ho sakta hai, aur cryptocurrency jitni tezi se barhegi, utni hi tezi se giregi. Kya barfani toofan shuru hua hai aur kya ise roka ja sakta hai?

Bitcoin ke chand par charhne ki mutadid peshin goyion ke baraks jab is ne pichle salon mein record unchaaiyan banaein, 2017 aur 2021 mein, aam dilchasp zyada dab gayi hai. Haan, guzisht 12 mahinon mein BTC/USD ki qeematon mein teen guna izafah hua hai, lekin doosron ke ameer hone ki kahaniyan press mein itni aam nahi hain. Google ki talashain bohat achhi hain, lekin woh itni zabardast nahi hain jitni ke teen aur chhe salon pehle thin. Kyun? Mera khayal hai ke is baar, cryptocurrency ka ooper ki taraf march bunyadi ahamulon par mabni hai, nah ke sirf lalach par.



Maiyari nazriyat mein, agar kisi assest ki rasad kam ho jaye aur talab barh jaye to qeemat bhi barhni chahiye. Iss silsile mein, BTC/USD ka izafah mantqi hai. April mein, Bitcoin ke ikhraj ki nisf ya nisf kami waqai ho jaye gi, tareekh mein chautha. Blockchain mein pichli tabdeeliyan cryptocurrency ki qeematon mein izafay ka banaa banaya sabab banein.

Bitcoin ki mang ki surat haal bhi kafi achhi hai. 11 January ko is ke aghaz ke baad se, ETFs ne is ki taraf tawajjuh mabzool karai hai jis ne khalis bunyad par $11.2 billion hasil kiye hain. Majmooi tor par yeh tadad 20 billion dollar se zyada hai. BTC/USD mein record unchayion ke pas manzar mein, 12 March trading ko sarmaye ki aamad tareekh mein pehli bar $1 billion se tajawuz kar gayi, aur Fleig Schiff Specialized Exchange traded fund IBIT BlackRock ne ek din mein $849 million ka naya record qaim kiya.

Taham, shakook nahi chhor rahe hain. Un ki raaye mein, market mein ETFs ko barqarar rakhne ke liye zyada mehnga se sasta mein sarmaya ki tabdeeli hai. Misal ke tor par, Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust mein fees, jise $10 billion ke ikhraj ka samna hai, 1.5% hai, jab ke IBIT BlackRock mein, yeh sirf 0.25% hai.

Qeematon ko mutasir karne wale talab aur rasad ke darmiyan taamul ke ilawa, beroon-e-siyagh o sabaaq bhi ahmiyat rakhta hai. Kuch arse pehle tak, yeh khatarnaak asasathon ki himayat karta tha. Sarmaya karoon ne 2024 mein federal funds ki shirah ko kam az kam teen baar kam karne ki tawqah zahir ki. Taham, sarfeen ki qeemat aur producer ki qeemat ke adad o shumar ki wajah se shakook aur shubahat peda hue, jis se markazi bank ke iqdamat par ghair yaqeeni surat-e-hal peda hui. Do ya is se bhi sirf aik maaliyati tausee ki taajwez karne wali peshin goyian market mein zyada maqbool hoti ja rahi hain, khas tor par November mein.




Technically, BTC/USD daily chart par, Three Indians Reversal pattern aur Green Moving Average ki shakal mein dynamic support ka test hai. Agar din is ke neeche band ho jata hai, to upar ki janib raajhan ki islah jaari rahegi. Iss ke baraks, rebound beilon ko theek hone aur cryptocurrency ko mazboot karne ki ijaazat dega. Taham, jab tak Bitcoin 69,500 ki pivot level se neeche trade kar raha hai, tawajjuh mukhtasir muddat ki farokht par markooz honi chahiye.

EUR USD FORECAST!

Euro 1.0886 ke ird gird trade kar raha hai, 16 February se bunnay wale up trend channel ke neeche tak pohanchne ke baad achal raha hai. Tawaqo hai ke yeh aala agle chand ghanton mein barhta rahega aur 1.0917 ke qareeb 21 SMA tak pohanch sakta hai.

Agar euro agle chand ghanton mein 1.0864 par waqea 2/8 mare ke aas paas ya 200 EMA (1.0860) ke aas paas achalta hai, to hum tawaqo kar sakte hain ke yeh apna tezi ka chakkar dobara shuru karega aur 1.0925 tak pohanch sakta hai aur aakhir kar is ke ird gird down trend channel ke oopri hisse tak pohanch sakta hai, 1.0940.

Euro 6 March se down trend channel ke andar trade kar raha hai. Tawaqo hai ke aane wale dino mein EUR/USD 1.08648 se oopar aur 1.0950 se neeche trade karega.
1.0860 (200 EMA) se neeche mazboot break hone ki soorat mein, 1.0775 par waqea 0/8 mare ki taraf girne ki tawaqo hai. Isay rajhan mein tabdili aur mukhtasar muddat mein farokht karne ke mauqa se ta'beer kiya ja sakta hai.

Jab tak euro 1.0864 se oopar tajarat karta hai, out look mukhtasar muddat mein tezi ka shikar reh sakta hai aur EUR/USD 1.10 ki nafsiyati satah tak pohanch sakta hai. Agley chand ghanton ke liye hamara tajrubi mansooba 1.0864 par waqea 2/8 mare se oopar euro kharidna hai ya 1.0889 ki maujooda qeemat ki satahon par 1.0917, 1.0925, aur 1.0945 ke hadaf ke saath.

USD INDEX FORECAST!

Yahan naye khareedaron ke liye pehla ishara 103.50 ki ahem muzahimat satah (4 ghanton ke chart par 200 EMA, daily chart par 50 EMA) ka peshraft ho sakta hai.
Taham, 103.15 ki ahem qaleel muddati support level ki peshraft (1 ghante ke chart par 200 EMA) mukhtasar positions ko barhane ke liye pehla ishara ho sakta hai, jis mein guzashta haftay ki kam tareen 102.33 ki peshraft us ki tasdeeq karti hai. Manfi ahdaaf 102.00, 100.75, 100.00 ki key support levels hain.

Support ki satahain:
103.15, 103.00, 102.70, 102.30, 102.00, 101.90, 101.00, 100.75, 100.00.

Technique nukta nazar se, dollar index ke darmiyani muddat ke tezi ke rajhan ko dobara shuru karne ke liye (MT4 terminal mein CFD #USDX), 103.70 (200 EMA) ki key muzahimat satah se oopar wale zone mein dakhil hona zaroori hai (daily chart par).
Ek hi waqt mein, DXY tawil muddati tezi ki market ke zone mein rehta hai, jo 100.75 ki key support level (haftawar chart par 200 EMA) se oopar lambi positions ko tarjeeh deta hai.

BITCOIN FORECAST!

Bitcoin $67,750 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, 26 February se bannay walay up trend channel ke neeche, aur 71,417 par waqe 21 SMA ke neeche. H4 chart mein, hum dekh sakte hain ke Bitcoin ne March ke aghaz se tashkeel panay walay symmetrical triangle pattern ko tezi se tor diya. Hum dekh sakte hain ke cryptocurrency market mein tabdeeli ke asar dikh raha hai, lekin is ke liye Bitcoin ko 3/8 maare channel ke neeche tajarat karni chahiye.

Haftay ke aakhir mein, Bitcoin 68,750 se oopar uchal sakta hai. Agar yeh manzar paish ata hai, to hum umeed kar sakte hain ke qeemat 71,417 par waqe 21 SMA tak pohanch jaye gi. Yeh aakhir kar schedule triangle ke ilaqay tak pohanch sakta hai jo 73,000 ke qareeb toot gaya tha.

Mukhtasir muddat mein, Bitcoin 60,633 par waqe 200 EMA ke ird gird $60,000 ki nafsiyati satah tak pohanch sakta hai. Agar mandi ki quwwat ghaleb rehti hai aur agar BTC is ilaqay se neeche aata hai, to out look negative ho sakta hai aur darmiyani muddat mein aur BTC $50,000 tak pohanch sakta hai.

Bitcoin ne do hafton se zyada arsay tak naye record tor diye aur is ke natayej mein us ki zabardast khareedi hui. Takneeki tasheeh ka sahi waqt hai. Hum samajhte hain ke agar Bitcoin 71,417 par waqe 21 SMA se neeche tajarat karta hai, to kisi bhi takneeki rebound ko farokht karne ke moqa ke tor par dekha jaye ga.

Bitcoin apna tezi ka chakkar sirf usi surat mein dobara shuru kar sakta hai jab yeh 71,500 se oopar mazboot ho jaye. Phir, yeh $75,000 ke hadaf tak pohanch sakta hai. Uqaab ka ishara over sold zone ke qareeb pohanch raha hai. Is liye anay walay dino mein sikay ke $66,000 aur $72,000 ke darmiyan mazboot honay ka imkan hai. Is tarah, hum khareed o farokht ke moqa talash karenge.

GOLD ANALYSIS!

Jumma ko Asiaee tijarat mein sone ki qeemat mein thora sa izafah hua kyun ke tawaqqa se zyada mazboot afraat zar ke aadad o shumar ne mazeed andeshaat ko janam diya ke Federal Reserve aane wali meeting mein tawil arse ke liye shara-e-sud ka ishara dega.

Lekin is jazbay ne tanbe ki qeemat mein tezi ko roknay ke liye kuch nahi kiya, jo Jumma ko 11 mah ki nai bulandiyo par pohanch gayi kyun ke cheeni supply mein kafi had tak sakhti ki tawqat ne surkh dhaat mein bhari khareedari ko farogh diya.
Dusri taraf, bilan ki qeematien mazboot dollar ki wajah se dabao mein thin. Is hafte afraat zar ki mazboot reading ke baad Greenback ek hafte se zyada ki buland tareen satah par pohanch gaya, jabke tajiro ne bhi aanay wali feed meeting ke liye position hasil ki.

Spot gold 0.1% barh kar 2,163.98 per ounce ho gaya, jabkeh April mein khatam hone wale sone ke mustaqbil ki qeemat 01:17 ET (05:17 GMT) tak $2,168.05 per ounce par mustehkam rahi.
Feed meeting ke qareeb ate hi gold nurseyan record unchai se gir rahi hain.

Sone ki qeematien peer ko record ki buland satah se tezi se girne ke baad haftawar nuqsaanat ke liye muqarrar ki gayi.
Peli dhaat par dabao buniyadi tor par agle haftay hone wali Fed meeting par barhte hue ghussay se aya, khaas tor par jab sarfeen aur producers mehngai ke ishaare musalsal teesre mahine mein tawaqqa se zyada mazboot hote hain.

Chapchapa mehngai ne dekha ke tajir Fed ki taraf se kisi bhi aqibat nai andish signals se khaufzadah ho gaye hain, khaas tor par jaisa ke markazi bank ne ishara kiya hai ke 2024 mein shara-e-sud mein kami ke us ke mansoobay zyada tar afraat zar ke raste par munhasar honge. Sone aur doosre ghair paidawar asaasat ke liye tawil arse ke liye zyada sharahein kharab hain.
Phir bhi, AN Zed ke tajziya karoon ne ek halia note mein kaha hai ke agar bhi sone ki qeemat qareeb qareeb mein kuch kamzori dekhi ja sakti hai, lekin zarad dhaat mein abhi bhi kai factors baqi saal ke liye us ke haq mein kaam kar rahe hain. Unho ne sone ke liye apni 2024 ki hadaf ki qeemat bhi $2,200 per ounce se barha kar $2,300 per ounce kar di.

Jumma ko doosre qeemti dhaaton mein izafah hua aur woh haftay ke liye sone ko peechay chhodne ke liye tayyar the. Platinum futures 0.2% barh kar $932.50 per ounce, jabke silver futures 0.6% barh kar $25.212 per ounce ho gaya.
Cheen mein supply ki kami par tanbe ki qeematien 11 mah ki buland tareen satah par pohanch gayi.

London Metal Exchange mein teen mah ke tanbe ke futures mein Jumma ko 1.5% ka izafah hua aur April 2023 ke baad pehli baar $9,000 per ton ki satah ko paar kiya. Ek mah ke US copper futures 1.3% barh kar 4.1022 dollar per pound ho gaye jo ke 11 mah ki buland satah hai.
Donon muaahidat mein is hafte 5% se zyada ka izafah kiya gaya tha - 2024 mein un ka ab tak ka behtareen haftawar faida.

Tanbe ki rally buniyadi tor par media reports ki wajah se shuru hui thi jis mein kaha gaya tha ke baray cheeni tanbe ke smelters behtar tanbe ki supply ko mehdood karte hue mushtarik paidawar mein kami karne ka mansooba bana rahe hain.
Citi tajziya karoon ne kaha ke tanbe ki rally mein abhi bhi tangain thin, aur woh tanbe par zyada wazan wale the jo June 2024 tak $9,500 per ton tak ke mumkinah izafay ke sath the.

BITCOIN FORECAST

Daily Outlook:--

Bitcoin $68,926 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, $72,500 par mazboot muzahimat ko torne ki koshish ke baad peechay hat raha hai. Hum filhal tezi se pichar ke pattern ki tashkeel ka mushahida kar rahe hain. Isliye, agar is pattern ke niche koi tez waqfa hota hai, to ye rujhan mein tabdili ki tasdeeq kar sakta hai aur qeemat is ki mandi ki harkat ko tez kar sakti hai.

65,000 se neeche waqfe aur istehkam ki soorat mein BTC mein kami mutawaqqa hai. Isliye, kripto darmiyan muddat mein $50,000 ki nafsiyati satah par gir sakta hai.
Dusra tareeqa, hamein yakeen hai ke Bitcoin is tarah ke andar ane wale dino mein ab bhi mazboot ho sakta hai aur hum $72,300 se neeche farokht karne aur takriban $66,200 kharidne ke mauqe talash kar sakte hain.

Doosri taraf, agar BTC is pattern ke oopri hisse mein $72,200 ke qareeb pohanch jata hai, to ek mazboot mustrad hone ki tawaqo hai jise farokht karne ke mauqe ke tor par dekha jayega.

Agar Bitcoin toot jata hai aur $73,000 se oopar jata hai to ye aasani se 75,000 ki nafsiyati satah tak pohanch sakta hai. Ek bar is satah se oopar, BTC 81,250 par waqe 5/8 maray tak pohanchne tak apna izafa jari rakh sakta hai.
Dusra tareeqa, hum takriban 66,200 ke ahdaaf ke sath $68,750 se neeche farokht karne aur 72,500 ke ahdaaf ke sath is ilaqe ke ird-gird kharidne ke mauqe talash kar sakte hain. Aqab ka ishara manfi signal de raha hai. Is ka matlab hai ke ane wale dino mein Bitcoin ki qeemat mein musalsal kami ka imkan hai.

ETH USD ANALYSIS

ETH/USD 6 march se tashkeel pane wale sedool musalasat peetran ke andar 3,514 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Itwaar ko, ETH 3,727 ki bulandi par pohanch gaya, ye satah jo hum ahang musalasat ke oopri hisse ke sath milti hai. Ab ether 21 SMA ke ard-gird mazboot ho raha hai. Isliye, hamein ane wale ghanton mein takniki behtari ya mandi ki tehreek ka silsila dekhne ka imkan hai.

Agar ETH 3,468 par waqe 21 SMA se neeche ajata hai, to ye kal se shuru hone wali mandi ki tehreek ko jari rakhne ka imkan hai. Token apni slide ko sedool musallasat peetran ke neeche ki taraf takreeban 3,230 par barha sakta hai.

Hamein yakeen hai ke agle chand dino ke doran ETH is qeemat ki had mein 3,750 se 3,300 ke darmiyan tajarat kar sakta hai. Mutawazi musalasat ke peetran ke mutabiq, side-way channel tang hota ja raha hai.

Agar ETH/USD toot jata hai aur 3,600 se oopar mazboot hota hai, to isay kharidne ke liye ek signal ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai. Mukhtasir muddat mein, ye 4,062 ki bulandi tak pohanch sakta hai aur aakhir kar 4,375 par waqe maray ke 6/8 tak pohanch sakta hai.

Agle chand ghanton ke liye hamara tijarati mansooba ether ki farokht jari rakhna hai. Kyunki hum ne mushahida kiya hai ke ETH/USD mein takniki islah hai aur agar ye 3,500 se neeche ajati hai to hum 3,410 aur 3,230 par ahdaaf ke sath farokht kar sakte hain.

USD JPY FORECAST!

Jumeraat ko, USD/JPY mumkinah tor par Japani hukumat ke hathon mein ho ga. Raaton raat Amriki CPI report ne USD/JPY ko 153.239 ki unchaai par bhej diya. Sarmaya karun ne pehle 152 ko hukumat ke liye reet mein laain samjha tha.
Aaj ke baad Amriki producer ki qeematon par tawajjo markooz karne ke saath, mazeed USD/JPY faiday afq par hosakte hain. Yen ki mazeed kamzori ka imkaan hukumat ko yen ko taqat denay ki tarqeeb de sakti hai. Mudakhilat karne mein nakami yen ke liye khareedaron ki bhook par manfi asar daal sakti hai. US CPI report se pehle, USD/JPY chaudah sessions ke liye ek taraf chala gaya kyunke mudakhilat ke khatrat ne USD/JPY ke liye faida ko mehdood kar diya.

Agarche mudakhilatain mumkinah tor par markazi mawadah hongi, Bank of Japan ki commentary par bhi ghaur karne ki zaroorat hai. Is hafte, Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne khabardar kiya ke agar yen ki naqal o harkat se daramadi qeematon mein izafa hota hai aur ifraat zar ko mawqo se zyada barhne ka khatra hota hai to BoJ ko maliyati policy ko adjust karne ki zaroorat par sakti hai. Teham, Governor Ueda ne yeh bhi kaha ke BoJ tanhaai mein FX ki naqal o harkat ke liye maliyati policy mein tarmeem nahi karega.
Mudakhilat ki barhti hui tawakalat ke darmiyan, mashriq wasat mein kashidgi yen ke liye khareedaron ki maang ko barha sakti hai.
Teham, sarmaya karun ke liye Japan ki janib se koi iqtisadi isharaat maujood nahi hain.



Short Term Outlook:

USD/JPY ke qareebul muddatii rujhanat Amriki producer ki qeematon, FOMC member ki chatter, aur Japani hukumat par muntashir hain. Tawakal se zyada garam Amriki producer qeemtain monetary policy ke mor ko Amriki dollar ki taraf mazeed jhuka sakti hain. Teham, yen ko taqat denay ke liye Japani hukumat ki mudakhilat Amriki data ke asar aur rasookh ko chha sakti hai.


USD JPY Daily Chart Outlook:!

USD/JPY 50-day aur 200-day EMAs se oopar baitha, qeematon mein tezi ke asharon ki tasdeeq karta hai.
153.239 ki 10 April ki unchaai par USD/JPY ki wapisi 154 handle mein muntaqil hone ki himayat kar sakti hai.

Japani hukumat, Amriki producer ki qeematon, aur feed commentary par ghaur karne ki zaroorat hai.
Is ke baraks, 152 handle se neeche USD/JPY girne se rechon ko 151.685 support level par run milega.

68.53 par 14 din ka RSI zyada khareedey hue ilaqe mein dakhil hone se pehle 153 handle par USD/JPY ki wapisi ki nishandehi karta hai.

EUR USD Forecast!


Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

1.0844 ka test MACD line ke zero se girne ke doran hua. Iss ne sell signal ko aksaya, jis ki wajah se qeemat mein 100 pips se zyada kami waqia hui.
Agarche Italy mein khordah farokht ke aidad o shumar ne market ko kisi bhi tarah se mutasir nahi kiya, Amrici afraat zar ki report ne jazbat ko bohot mutasir kiya, jis ki wajah se dollar ki mazbooti aur khatre ki bhook mein kami waqia hui. Raich ki market mumkinah tor par aaj barqarar rahegi, kyunke agarche ahem sharh e sood par ECB ka faisla badstoor barqarar rahega, ECB ki sadr Christine Lagarde ki taraf se saal ke darmiyan sharh mein kami ke isharaat yaqeenan euro bill ki quwwat e kharid ko kam kar denge.

Har koi Amrici afraat zar mein izafe ki tawaqo kar raha tha, lekin koi soch bhi nahi sakta tha ke sarfeen ki qeemtein 3.5 feesad tak pohanch jayengi. Sab ke baad, afraat zar 3.2% se 3.4% tak barhne ki pesh goi ki gayi thi. Lehaza, yeh hairat angaiz nahi hai ke dollar mein izafe hua. Is ke ilawa, yeh qiyas araiyan hain ke Federal Reserve mosam garmi mein sharh mein bhi izafe kar sakta hai. Iss tarah ka istidlal merit ke baghair nahi hai, iss baat par ghor karte hue ke mehngai musalsal doosre mahine, aur tawaqo se zyada tez hai. Taham, zyadatar hisse ke liye, market ke shareekan iss khayal ki taraf jhukaoo rakhte hain ke mosam khizan mein sharh e sood kam hona shuru ho jaye gi. Agarche aisa lagta hai ke in tawaqoat par jald hi nazar sani ki jayegi.

Abhi ke liye, market qadre pichhe hat gayi hai, jo ke kaafi munasib hai. Behrhaal, dollar ka imkan aakhir mein barhe ga. Aaj, markazi taqreeb yorpi markazi bank ki meeting hai, aur iss ke natayej dollar ko sahara de sakte hain. Zyadatar imkan hai ke, ECB aakhir mein bataye ga ke yeh kab sharh kam karna shuru kare ga. Aakhir kar, yorop mein afraat zar nah sirf kam ho raha hai balkay 2.0% ki hadaf ki satah ke qareeb bhi pohanch raha hai. Lehaza, ECB Federal Reserve ke muqable mein ek mukhtalif soorat e haal se numat raha hai.

EUR/USD sirf chand ghanton mein 100 se zyada pips gir gaya. Natija tanasub, qeemtein guzishta haftay ki muqami kam tareen satah par pohanch gayi hain.


H4-Time Frame Outlook!

4 ghante ke chart par, RSI over sold zone par pohanch gaya, jis se pata chalta hai ke aala qeemat mein tasheeh ki wajah se ho sakta hai.
Issi chart par, Alligator ke MA ne simat badal di hai.



Euro ki over sold halat ke wazeh asarat ke bawajood market mein qiyas araiyon par mabni jazbat ab bhi barqarar hain. Iss soorat e hal mein, ECB ijlas ka natija ek ahem kirdar ada kare ga, mumkinah tor par qiyas araiyon ki ek nai lehar ko mutaharik kare ga.

Pechida isharon ke tajziya ke lehaz se, isharaat mukhtasir muddat aur intraday adwar mein neeche ki taraf ishara karte hain.

CRUDE OIL

Market ka jaiza!

Tail ke prices mein izafa hua, jo ke market ke darr ko darust karta hai taiz hoti hui Middle East crisis ka, jo shayad Iran ko shamil karta hai, ek bada OPEC oil producer. Gaza mein pichle waqiat se bhara hua tension, supply disruptions ke darr ko barha raha hai.

Geopolitical developments ke asar se markets mehtaat hain, jin ka global oil supply lines par asar hosakta hai. Jab tak geopolitical uncertainty barkarar rahegi, tail ke prices ajeeb o gareeb reh sakti hain, dono tail aur natural gas forecasts ko mutassir karte hue.

Ye halaat energy markets ke nazuk balance ko wazeh karte hain, jahan regional conflicts global energy prices aur supply stability par nafazati asar dal sakte hain.



WTI Oil Price Forecast!

USOIL ke trades $86.16 par hain, jo ke 0.06% ki halki giravat ko zahir karte hain. Price action $85.48 ke pivot point ke aas paas hai, jo dono raaston mein movement ki mumkinat ko zahir karta hai. Ahem resistance levels $87.45, $88.53, aur $89.61 par tay kiye gaye hain, jo ke upward movements ko rok sakte hain.

Mukhtalif tor par, support levels $84.58, $83.57, aur $82.54 par hain, jo ke mazeed giravat ke khilaf ek takya mawad faraham karte hain. Technical indicators, 50-day EMA jo $85.23 par hai aur 200-day EMA jo $81.81 par hai, buniyadi taqat ko zahir karte hain. Market sentiment bullish hai $85.48 ke upar, lekin agar ye neeche gir gaya to tezi se farokht trend ko trigger kar sakta hai.




Brent Oil Price Forecast!

UKOIL ab $90.45 par hai, jo ke 0.19% ki halki kami ko zahir karta hai. Market ne pivot point ko $90.78 ki nazdeek dekha hai, jahan resistance levels $91.90, $92.89, aur $94.17 ko pehchan sakte hain. Ye hadood hera pheri ko mushkil kar sakte hain.

Niche, support $89.15, $87.89, aur $86.37 par milta hai, jo ke potential stabilization points faraham karte hain. Technical analysis 50-day EMA ko $89.36 aur 200-day EMA ko $86.10 par zahir karta hai, jo ke $90.78 ke neeche bearish trend ko darust karta hai.

SILVER Forecast!

Market ka jaiza

Chandi ki keemat mein mamooli kami dekhi gayi hai, jo taqreeban $27.90 par hai, jo teen saal ki buland tareen $28.53 se peechay hat rahi hai. Yeh wapas Federal Reserve ki shara-e-sod ki raftaar ke baray mein market ki dobara tashkeesh se mutasir hai, khaas tor par March ke liye US CPI ki taraf se musalsal afraat-e-zar ki tajwez ke baad, jis ke adad o shumar saal ba saal 3.5% aur mahana 0.4% tak barh gaye.


Sood ki shara-e-outlook

Fed ki janib se zyada der tak sood ki shara barqarar rakhne ki tawaqoat ko taqwiyat mili hai, khaas tor par tawaqo se zyada garam CPI data ke baad. Yeh tawaqo market ke nuqta nazar mein tabdeeli ka baais bani hai, June se September tak shara mein kami ke mumkinah timeline ko agay barha raha hai, jaisa ke CME FedWatch tool ne ishara kiya hai.

Aanay walay maashi waqiat

Tawajjo ab aanay walay Amrici iqtisadi adad o shumar par hai, jis mein March ke liye core PPI 0.2% mah be mah mohtawaq hai, jo pichle 0.3% se kam hai. Mazeed baran, market Fed ki policy ki simt par in adad o shumar ke asarat ka andaza lagane ke liye tayyar hai, FOMC members ki janib se ahem taqareer ke saath mazeed baseerat pesh karne ki tawaqo hai.


Silver keemat ki peshangoi

Chandi (XAG/USD) ab taqreeban $27.90 par trade kar rahi hai, jo pichle session mein 0.78% ki kami ke baad kam se kam tabdeeli dikh rahi hai. Market ka markazi noqta $28.50 par khara hai, jo mustaqbil ki keemat ki simt ke liye aik ahem mor ki nishandahi karta hai. Mazahimat ki satahain ki nishandahi $29.06, $29.57, aur $30.26 par ki gayi hai, jo ooper ki janib harkat ke liye mumkinah rukaawaton ki tajwez karti hai.

Is ke baraks, fori himayat $27.53 par dekhi gayi, mazeed manfi tahaffuz $26.20 aur $26.43 par hai. Takneeki isharaat, khaas tor par $24.88 par 50 din ka EMA aur $23.70 par 200 din ka EMA, pivot point ke neeche mandi ke jazbaat ki taraf ishara karte hain, $28.50 se ooper ke break out ke saath mumkinah tezi ke noqteh nazar ki taraf tabdeeli ka ishara dete hain. Fibonacci tajwez karta hai ke $27.52 se neeche girna mumkinah tor par $26.91 ke ilaqe ki taraf mazeed kami ka baais ban sakta hai.

GOLD MARKET FORECAST!

Sone ki mandiyon mein mukhtalif aksion nazar aati hai, jaise ke humein shayad mukhtasir muddat mein thakan ki ek khaas miqdar milti hai.

Gold markets ka technical tajziyah

Aap dekh sakte hain ke jumeraat ke awwal mein yahan trading session ke doran market aage peeche chali gayi hai, kyunke hum yeh taay karnay ki koshish karte hain ke kya hum mukhtalif rafatar ko jari rakh sakte hain ya nahi. Mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh aik asaan shat zyada honay wala hai, aur mujhe shak hai ke jald ya badir, humein kisi qisam ka pal beek milay ga jis se hum faida utha sakte hain. $2,200 ki satah ke neeche aik aisa ilaqa hai jahan aap ko bohot zyada mumkinah madad nazar aati hai jaisa ke pehlay shor tha. Agar hum wahan pohanch jatay hain, toh mujhe lagta hai ke aap ke paas aik bohot bara qeemti khail hai jis ke honay ka intezar hai, khaas tor par 50 din ke EMA ke saath.

Hum is lehaz se zyada khariday gaye hain ke hum rishta daar taqat ke ishara mein 70 ki satah se kafi oopar hain, jo aik aisa ishara hai jise bohot saray log istemal karte hain. Lekin bilkul wazeh tor par, sirf market ko dekh kar, aap kam az kam dekh sakte hain, humein is ezafi jhaag mein se kuch ko door karne ki zaroorat hai. Agar aisa honay ja raha hai, toh hum sirf thoray der ke liye aage peeche chaltay hain, aur aap mukhtasir muddat ki kami ka faida uthatay hain. Kisi bhi tarah se, mere khayal mein yeh wazeh hai ke sona koi aisi market nahi hai jis ki aap ko is waqt kami ho, kyunke yeh bohot mazboot hai.



Yeh sochnay ki bohot si wajahat hain ke sona buland hota rahe ga. Kam az kam duniya bhar mein sood ki sharah mein kami, mumkinah tor par, jughrafiyai siyasi masail, aur bilkul wazeh tor par, haqeeqat yeh hai ke Amriki khazana market mein khraabon dollar ka qarz bhej raha hai. Lihaza, yeh sab mil kar sirf sonay ke liye aam tor par aik zyada purkashish surat hal peda karta hai kyunke traders apni dolat ki hifazat karnay ki koshish karte hain. Mujhe dips khareedna pasand hai, agar mein is se bach sakta hoon toh mein yahan tak is ka peecha nahi karna chahta.

FOMC MEETING!

Mehngaai ki taaza report mein yeh zahir hone ke baad ke Amriki sarfeen ki qeematein 3.5 feesad tak pohanch gayi hain, bohot si badi companies aur banks ne 2024 mein Federal Reserve ki sharah ke liye apni taaza tareen peshangoiyan jaari ki hain. Market ke jazbaat ka taeen karne ke liye bench mark samjha jata hai. Abhi chand haftay pehle, June mein Fed policy mein narmi ka imkaan 65% tha. Yeh haqeeqat mein itna zyada nahi hai, mahawra 50/50 se thoda zyada hai. Lekin ifraat-e-zar ke aadad o shumar ke ijad se qabal, market kam umeed ho gayi. Budh ki subah, imkaan pehle hi 56% par tha, aur sham mein, yeh 19% tak gir gaya. Mazeed baran, markets ab July mein sharah mein kami ke 38% imkaan mein qeematein tay kar rahi hain. Aur September mein bhi sharah mein kami ka imkaan sirf 45.6 feesad hai! Dosray lafzon mein, market ne Fed ki sharah ke hawale se apni tawqo ko yaksaar tabdeel kar diya hai aur ab agli chaar FOMC meetings mein kisi kami ki tawqo nahi kar raha hai!


EUR/USD ka tajziya:

EUR/USD ke kiye gaye tajziye ki bunyad par, mein natija ikhtiyar karta hoon ke bearish view set ban raha hai. Lahray 2 ya b aur 2 mein 3 ya c mukammal hain, isliye mustaqbil qareeb mein, mein tawqo karta hoon ke aala mein numaya kami ke sath 3 mein 3 ya c mein ek zabardast niche ki taraf lahar ban jayegi. Mein 1.0462 nishaan ke qareeb ahdaaf ke sath mukhtasir positions par ghor kar raha hoon, jo ke 127.2% Fibonacci ke musawi hai, kyunke khabron ka pas manzar dollar ke haq mein rehta hai. Humein 1.0880 ke qareeb jis sail signal ki zaroorat hai is hafte tashkeel diya gaya tha.



GBP/USD ka tajziya:

GBP/USD instrument ki lahar ka namoona kami ka ishara deta hai. Mein 1.2039 ki satah se neeche ke ahdaaf ke sath aala farokht karne par ghor kar raha hoon, kyunke mujhe yaqeen hai ke lahar 3 ya c jald ya ba'dir shuru ho jayegi. Taham, jab tak hum is baat ki zimmedari nahi de sakte ke lahar 2 ya b khatam ho gayi hai, aala ab bhi 1.3140 ki satah tak barh sakta hai, jo 100.0% Fibonacci ke musawi hai. Iqtibasat chotiyon se zyada door nahi gaye hain, is liye hum lahar 3 ya c ke aghaz ki tasdiq nahi kar sakte.


Key Principles of Analysis:--

Lahray ke dhaanche sada aur qabil-e-fahm hone chahiye. Pechidah dhaanchay ke saath kaam karna mushkil hai, aur woh aksar tabdeeliyan late hain.
Agar aap ko market ki naqal o harkat ke bare mein yaqeen nahi hai, to behtar hoga ke us mein daakhil na hon.
Hum tehreek ki simt ki zimmedari nahi de sakte. Stop loss orders ke bare mein mat bhoolna.
Lahray ke tajziye ko doosray aqsam ke tajziyon aur tijarati hikmat amliyon ke saath milaya ja sakta hai.

USD JPY!

Ahem points:

1. Jumma ko, Bank of Japan aur Japani hukoomati poaynts banay hue hain kyun ke USD/JPY 153 handle par hai.

2. Baad mein session mein, April ke liye American users ke jazbaat ke aadad o shumar sarmaya karoon ki dilchaspi hasil karenge.

3. Jumma ko, Bank of Japan aur Japani hukoomat USD/JPY ke liye khareedaron ki maang ko mutasir karne jaari rakhenge. 153 handle ko thamay hue, kamzor yen Japani hukoomat ko mudakhilat ke liye tarhib de sakta hai.

4. Kamzor yen Bank of Japan ki shara'h ke raaste ko bhi mutasir kar sakta hai. Barhti hui dar-amdi qeemtiyon, yen ki kami se peda hone wali, mehangai ko buland karegi, jis se gharailu akhrajaat aur ma'eeshat mutasir hogi. Naqdi khapat Japani ma'eeshat ka 50% se zyada hai.

5. Ek kamzor ma'ashi nuqta nazar ijraat mein izafay ke rajhanat ko bhi mutasir karega jo naqdi khapat ko mazeed mutasir kar sakta hai.

6. Mazeed baraan, kamzor taraqqi ki peshan guaai mumkinah tor par USD/JPY ko mojooda satah par chhod de gi kyun ke BoJ shara'h mein ek aur izafay ki tawakhu'at khatam ho jayengi.

US Economic Calendar: Users ka itimad aur fed chatter

7. Jumma ko, April ke liye American users ke itimad ke aadad o shumar sarmaya karoon ki tawajju hasil karenge. Ma'ashi mahireen tawakal karte hain ke michi gun kanzoomear sentiment index 79.4 se 79.0 tak gir jayega. Mutawaqqa se kamzor tadad fed rate path ki taraf sarmaya karoon ke jazbat ko mutasir kar sakti hai.

8. Surkhi ke aadad o shumar se agay, sarmaya karoon ko ifraat zar ki tawakhu'at samait zili ajza par ghoor karna chahiye. Iqtisadi mahireen tawakal karte hain ke ifraat zar ki tawakhu'at ka index 2.9% se 2.8% tak gir jayega.

9. Users ke itimad mein kami users ke akhrajaat ko mutasir kar sakti hai. Users ke akhrajaat mein kami ka rajhan mang par mabni ifraat zar ko kam kar dega. Ek narm ifraat zar ka nuqta nazar fed ko shara'h suud mein kami karne ke qabil bana sakta hai. Mazeed baraan, users ke akhrajaat mein kami ka rajhan America par ma'ashi kisad bazaar se bachne ke liye shara'ton ki jaanch karega. American ma'eeshat mein naqdi khasa ka hissa 65% se zyada hai.


Short-Term Forecast:---

10. USD/JPY ke liye qareebi muddati rajhanat American users ke jazbati numbers, fed forward guidance, aur Japani hukoomat par muntaser hai. Users ke jazbat mein ghair mutawaqqa izafa June 2024 ki fed rate cut par shart ko mazeed mutasir kar sakta hai. Taa'hum, Japani hukoomat ki mudakhlaten American iqtisadi aadad o shumar aur fed ki taqreeron ke asar o rasookh ko chha sakti hain.

USD/JPY price action

11. Daily chart Pr:

USD/JPY 50-day aur 200-day EMAs se oopar raha, qeematon mein tezi ke rajhanat ki tasdeeq karta hai.

12. 11 April ki unchaai 153.317 se oopar USD/JPY wakfa 154 handle par bilkul dyaan dene laayak ho sakta hai.

13. Bank of Japan, Japani hukoomat, American users ke jazbati numbers, aur FOMC member chatter par ghoor karne ki zaroorat hai.

14. Is ke bar aks, 152.500 handle ke zariye USD/JPY ki kami 151.685 support level ko amal mein laaye gi.

15. 69.25 par 14 din ka RSI zaroorat se zyada kharide gaye ilaqa mein dakhil hone se pehle USD/JPY ko 153.500 handle mein muntaqil karne ka mashwara deta hai.