PakeezaBaloch Trading Journal

GOLD FORECAST!

Sona (XAU/USD) ki keemat Asia ke session mein maayusi mein hai aur haftay ke low par stabil hai. Investors ne US central bank ke early interest rate cut ki expectations kam ki hain, Christopher Waller ke Tuesday ke remarks ke jawab mein. Isse, elevated US Treasury bond yields ko support mil rahi hai, jo US Dollar ko December 13 ke kareeb highest level par qaim rehne mein madad karti hai aur non-yielding yellow metal ke liye rukawat ka kaam karti hai.

Lekin, Middle East mein military action mein izafa aur China mein rukawat ki pareshaniyon ke saath, safe-haven Gold price ke liye downside ko limit kar raha hai. Iske alawa, ab tak sona ne 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support aur monthly trough ko hold kar liya hai. Isse pehle, bearish traders ke liye kuch ihtiyaat zaroori hai aur mazeed nuksan ke liye tayyar ho jane se pehle.


Gold Daily Digest:---

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller ke Tuesday ko ki gayi tabdiliyon ne March mein dar ko mazeed kam karne ke liye tamannaat ko kamzor kiya aur sone ki keemat ko non-yielding bana diya.Waller ne ye bhi kaha ki jabki maeeshat theek hai, Fed ko ehtiyaat baratna chahiye aur rate cuts mein jaldi nahi karna chahiye, jiski wajah se US Treasury bond yields tezi se badh gayi.Dastavezi das saal ke US sarkari bond ki 10-year yield 4.0% se oopar tikti hai, jisse US Dollar ko support milta hai aur non-yielding yellow metal ko rokta hai.Middle East mein takrao ki mazeed bhadotri ke khatre ne safe-haven XAU/USD ko koi araam nahi diya aur bullish traders ko bhi kisi impression mein nahi laya.Taza tareen maalumat ke mutabiq, US ne Yemen mein ek aur houthi missile facility ko nishana banane wale air strike ko carry out kiya, jisme merchant vessels aur US Navy ships ko khatra bataya gaya.Qaumi Bunyad-e-Shumari (NBS) ki rasmi maalumat ke mutabiq, China ki maeeshat ne 2023 ke final quarter mein saalana dar par 5.2% izafah kiya.Quarterly tor par, Chinese GDP Q3 mein 1.0% vs. 1.0% expected izafah hua, jabke December mein Retail Sales aur Industrial Production mein 7.4% YoY aur 6.8% YoY izafah hua.

Technical Analysis:

Technical nazar se, 50-day SMA, jiska mojooda value $2,017 ke aas-paas hai, iske baad $2,013 region, yaani monthly low, aur phir $2,000 psychological mark ko protect kar sakta hai. Jab tak iske neeche convincing break nahi hoga, ye bearish traders ke liye khatraat ka sabab nahi banega, aur Gold price ko December swing low, yani $1,973 zone ki taraf khinch sakta hai. XAU/USD aakhir mein $1,969-1,963 confluence tak gir sakta hai, jo 100- aur 200-day SMAs ko shamil karta hai.

Wahi flip side par, $2,040-2,045 region ab immediate strong barrier ban raha hai, $2,061-2,062 supply zone ke aage. Agar kuch follow-through buying ho to, Gold price ko $2,077 area tak lift kar sakta hai, jo agar decisively clear ho jata hai, to kisi bhi near-term negative bias ko negate kar dega. Bullish traders phir $2,100 psychological mark ko reclaim karne ki taraf tawajju de sakte hain.

EUR USD FORECAST!

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

EUR/USD ki currency pair ne Tuesday ko kami dikhai. Kuch experts ne foran is dollar ki mazeed taqwiyat ko Middle East ke waqiyat se jor diya, isay market mein "risk appetite mein girawat" ka daromadar bataya. Hamari raay mein, yeh wazeh taur par ghalat hai. Yaad rakhein ke Middle East mein conflicts daur pe hote hain aik alarming routine mein for decades. Hamesha koi kisi cheez se khush nahi hota, koi kisi aur se larai karta hai. Har American currency ki taqwiyat ko military actions ke izafay se jorna mumkin nahi hai.

Is ke ilawa, military conflicts sirf Middle East mein nahi hote. Duniya hot spots se bharpoor hai. For example, Ukraine mein 2 saal se taqwiyati confrontation chal raha hai. Is tamam waqt ke doran (in experts ki logic ke mutabiq), dollar taqwiyat kar sakta tha. Hum yeh samajhte hain ke duniya ke kuch isolated conflicts sach mein American currency ki izafay ya kamzori ka sabab ban sakte hain, lekin routine blows exchange jo kisi ko bhi surprise ya bari khabar nahi hoti, isay provoke nahi kar sakti.

Yeh bhi kuch experts seem to overlook karte hain ke American currency teeno mahinon se gir raha hai, bohot zyada oversold hai, aur be-waja kam levels par hai. Hum aapko yaad dilate hain ke fundamental aur macroeconomic background ne haal hi mein euro ya pound ki taqwiyat ko hamesha favor nahi kiya. Agar fundamentals aur macroeconomics dollar ke liye unfavorable hote to phir koi sawaal hi nahi hota. Magar United Kingdom aur European Union ki economic situation United States se zyada behtar nahi hai.

Haan, kuch individual reports United States mein haqeeqatan mein behtar nahi thin. Lekin sachai ye hai ke kya kuch reports (na keefiyat mein giray hue, balkay sirf kamzor) aik teeno mahine ki girawat provoke kar sakti hain? Kya Federal Reserve ECB ya Bank of England se zyada tezi se rates girane laga? Theek hai. Agar yeh waqai maamla hai to, sirf is factor par dollar kitna aur gir sakta hai, jab ke saare positive news ko ignore kiya jaye.



Maujooda mein, hum umeed karte hain ke pair "0/8" Murray level par 1.0742 tak giray ga. Ye minimum target hai. Target 1.0200 bhi relevant hai, lekin yeh to waqt lage ga us tak pohnchne mein. CCI indicator jald he oversold zone mein dakhil ho sakta hai, lekin hum aapko yaad dilana chahenge ke isne pehle chaar dafa overbought zone mein bhi gaya hai, aur dollar ki izafay ko support karne wale factors bohot zyada hain euro se mukabla mein.

EUR/USD currency pair ki average volatility past 5 trading days as of January 16th mein 54 points hai aur ise "average" qarar diya gaya hai. Is liye hum expect karte hain ke pair Tuesday ko 1.0864 aur 1.0972 ke darmiyan move karega. Heiken Ashi indicator ka upward reversal naya upward correction ki taraf ishara kare ga.

USD JPY Forecast:-

D-1 Time Frame Outlook:---

Pair ne pichle teen dinon mein strong izafah dikhaaya, aur kal 148.35 ke target level tak pahunch gaya. Is waqt, daily chart par Marlin oscillator ne ek reversal ki suchna di.

Yeh tay hai ke pair correction mein giray ya medium-term decline mein jaye, lekin yeh bhi uncertain hai. Phir bhi, izafah 149.30 (haftay ki chart par price channel line) aur 149.72 (November 22-24 ke peaks ke target level) par rokega. Correction ki surat mein, pair ko support MACD line aur 146.24 ke level par milega. Is level ke neeche consolidation hone par, pair chart par diye gaye target levels ki taraf girayga.

Char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, Marlin oscillator mein reversal ki shuruaat dikh rahi hai, jabki MACD line, jo price ko apne iraade ko confirm karne ke liye paar karna hoga, abhi bhi neeche hai. Pair ka giravat tezi se nahi hogi (triangle ke roop mein), aur yeh MACD line ko price ke paas aane ka mouka dega.







EUR/USD:-

D-1 Time Frame Outlook:---

Euro ne daily chart par MACD line ke support tak pahunchne se pehle hi aakarshit hokar mud gaya. Yeh izafah tab ruka kyunki stock market ne US ke retail sales aur industrial production ke achhe data ko ignore kiya. Aaj indices mein izafah hone ki sambhavna hai.

Marlin oscillator ab ek reversal ko zyada spasht dikhata hai. Aage ki tasdiq ke liye, pair ko 1.0905 ke resistance level ke upar consolidate karna hoga. Isse lagta hai ke pair 1.1033 ki taraf badhega. Giravat ka jari rakhna 1.0825 aur MACD line ko paar karne ke baad, jo 1.0730 ki taraf ja sakti hai.

It is abhi tak mushkil kehna ke Donald Trump ki jeet dollar ke liye achi hogi ya buri. Lekin jo bhi is eccentric Republican ke aas paas ho raha hai, woh USD index mein izafa kar raha hai. Shayad wajah U.S. dollar mein nahi, balki doosri currencies mein dhoondhni chahiye. Protectionist policies baghair shak Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, ya euro ke liye nuqsaan-deh hongi.

EUR/USD ka girna 2023 ke end tak overly "bullish" estimates ki wajah se asaan ho raha hai. Federal funds rate ki market pricing ke mutabiq, December se bhi zyada cuts ki expectations hain, lekin U.S. dollar badh raha hai. Investors ne ise bechna tha, lekin U.S. se aaye kuch behtareen macroeconomic reports ne khail ke niyam badal diye. Ab, Danske Bank apne clients ko keh rahi hai ke mukhya currency pair ko izafay par bechein aur 2024 ke end tak use 1.05 par dekhein.

Char ghante ka chart dekhte hue, pair dabav mein hai, lekin yeh badal sakta hai agar Marlin oscillator positive area mein chala gaya. Iska matlav hai ke level 1.0905 ke upar consolidate hoga.

GOLD FORECAST!

Aaj gold mein 50-Day MA ke neeche girne se decisively bearish movement hui, jo 2,017 aur 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,011 ke neeche gaya. Yeh weak close hone ki taraf ja raha hai, din ke trading range ke lower quarter mein. Ek uptrend line bhi tut gayi hai. Isse gold 1,987 par ek falling ABCD pattern complete karne ki disha mein hai, aur shayad uske baad aur kamzor ho sakta hai.

1,987 support ko hold karna zaroori hai, warna 1,973 ki taraf ja sakta hai. Agar 1,987 level downside mein exceed ho gaya toh gold 1,973 ke swing low ki taraf badhega. Ye price 50% retracement level ke saath match karta hai. Uske baad, 200-Day MA ek potential target ban jaata hai, jo 1,963 par hai. Ek bar se zyada support test sirf mid-October mein hua tha, jab gold line ke upar laut aaya tha. Toh doosra test bhi mumkin hai, agar 1,973-swing low support level hold nahi karta. Dilchaspi hai ki falling ABCD pattern ka 127.2% Fibonacci extension 1,967 par complete hota hai, jo 200-Day line ke aas-pass hai. Iska matlab hai ki ye ek aur target hai us price pattern ke liye.

Agar current correction sirf do legs se guzarti hai, jo ki recent swing high se shuru hui hai (2,088), toh yeh bada bull trend ka dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Hum abhi doosre leg ki continuation dekh rahe hain, jo last Friday ke high (C) se shuru hua hai.


Weekly Chart Supports a Deeper Retracement;---


Weekly chart mein price action ek deeper retracement ko support karta hai. Pichhle hafta ek bullish hammer candlestick pattern ke saath khatam hua tha. Lekin isko valid hone ke liye ek upside breakout ki zarurat thi, jo nahi hua. Balki, breakout nahi hua, aur pattern ko bearish breakdown ke saath invalidate kiya gaya. Failed patterns jaldi moves mein lead kar sakte hain, aur hum ab gold mein yeh dekh rahe hain.

Iska matlab hai ki downside momentum badh raha hai aur prices par bojh dal raha hai. Agar demand itni majboot nahi hai ki counter-selling pressure ko roke, toh sellers ko control mein rehne ka mauka zyada samay tak mil sakta hai. Isiliye 200-Day line ek target hai, jise gold maintain karna chahiye, jab tak intermediate aur long-term bullish bias bana rahe.

SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-

Silver ka daam 1.58% gir kar $22.50 ke qareeb aa gaya hai, mazeed kamzori ka tajaweez hota hua, jab ke US ki mazboot Retail Sales aur Industrial Production data aaya. Waller ke cautious rate cuts par tabdili ke bad, market Fed easing ki umeedon ko dobara gaur kar rahi hai.

Mazeed Silver ke daam girne ka imkaan hai, jis par focus $22.00 aur $21.88 par hai; $23.00 ko barqiyaar karne ke liye khaas hai.
Silver ka daam doosre din bhi kamzor rehta hai, halaanki lagta hai ke yeh teesre mahine mein $22.50 ke aspass neeche gaya hai, jabki yeh 1.58% kamzor hokar $22.94 ke daily urooj par pahuncha.

XAG/USD girta hai, lagbhag $22.50 par neeche aata hai jabke investors Fed rate cut ki raaste mein tajwez ko adjust karte hain. Buniyadi tor par, United States (US) se mazboot maali data ne Greenback (USD) ko taqwiyat di, jab US Treasury yields upar ki taraf laut gaye. Disambar mein Retail Sales mein 0.6% ki izafat hui, jo ke 0.4% ki tajwez aur November ki tajwez se ziada thi. Haal hi mein, US Federal Reserve ne ilan kiya ke Industrial Production pichle saal ke October aur November mein kamzor hokar kisi izafay ke baad December mein maqsood se thoda izafah hua.

Is dauran, Fed ke afraad ne aggressive rate cuts ke khilaaf bar bar rukawat ki, halaanki un mein se zyadatar kam az kam teen rate cuts dekh rahe hain, jo December ke Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) ke zariye tasweer mein aayi hai. Kal ke dinon mein, Fed Governor Christopher Waller ke bayanat ne is rukawat par reaction paida kiya, jo ke keh rahe thay ke woh rate cuts ko support karte hain lekin US central bank jald policy mein relax karne mein kisi bhi tarah ki jaldi nahi hai. Is ne investors ko yeh samajhne par majboor kiya ke Fed asaanise se policy ko barhane ki koshish kar sakta hai, jaisa ke is haftay ki shuruwat mein 175 basis points se 148 par kam kiya gaya tha.

XAG/USD Price Analysis:

Is wajah se, mazeed chandi ki kamzori ki tawakkal hai, halaanki kharidar ko daamain ko $22.50 ke neeche dhakelna hoga. Is level ko paar karne par $22.00 troy ounce figure khul jayega, jo ke November 13 ke swing low $21.88 ke baad aata hai. Aur mazeed neeche October 3 ke low $20.69 ko dekha ja sakta hai. Mukhalifan, agar kharidar $23.00 ko hasil karte hain, toh yeh 100-day moving average (DMA) ko $23.20 par challenge karne ka rasta kholega.

GOLD FORECAST!

Sona ke bazar ne Thursday ke early hours mein thoda sa mustaqil pan ki talaash mein rehaish li hai, jabke hum $2000 level ki asar dekh rahe hain.


Short-Term Forecast!

Qareebi mustaqbil mein, sonay ki keemat ko mainly central banks ki policies aur haali mein jaari hone wale maali dastavezat par gehra asar hoga. Bazaar mein mazeed tabdiliyan ane ki ummid hai, jinhe mainly in central banks ke positions mein koi taqat ka tabdil hone ka asar karega. Is liye, karobarion ko maazi mein badalne wale maali mahaul ko nazdeek se nigrani rakhna chahiye, taa ke sonay ki keemat ka maloom ho sake.

Yeh maaliyat mein rukawat, America ke Treasury yields, U.S. Dollar, aur CME FedWatch Tool ko nazdeek se dekha jana chahiye. Yeh indicators sonay ke bazar ki taraf ka rukh aur iski halchal samajhne ke liye ahem hain. Abhi, FedWatch Tool ne ek khaas maali karwai hone ki 61% mumkinat dikhayi hai.

Gold Markets Technical Analysis

Sonay ki keemat Thursday ke early hours mein thoda sa barh gayi hai kyun ke lagta hai ke $2000 level isey apni taraf khench raha hai, jo ke ek bara gol number hai jise zyada tawajju milegi. Iske bawajood, hum din ke early hours mein 50 din EMA ko azma rahe hain aur agar hum usay paar kar sakte hain, to yeh mumkin hai ke hum $2050 level ki taraf ja sakte hain. Jab tak hum $2000 level ke oopar rahein, toh main samajhta hoon ke chhoti mudrik kamiyan is bazaar mein kharidari ke mouke banati hain. Sonay ke bazar aur iske taalluqat ko bond bazar ke sath bhi madde nazar rakhein, khas tor par yields ke sath. Agar yields girne lagte hain, to amuman sona achha karta hai.

Humare paas ye bhi hai ke geo-political issues jaise ke Lal Sagar mein ek aur daur hamle ke baad, lagta hai ke Middle East mein tensions aur bhi barh gaye hain. Iske sath, mujhe lagta hai ke aapko yeh maan lena chahiye ke sona aksar se traders ke portfolios ka hissa banega.

Agar hum $2000 level ke neeche gir jaayein, toh agla area jo main dekh raha hoon woh $1980 level hai. Isay neeche jaane dene se sonay ke liye yeh bohot bura ho sakta hai, aur us waqt main samajhta hoon ke hum sach mein girne ke taraf ja rahe hain. Iske bawajood, Thursday ke early hours toh yeh suggest karte hain ke hum zyada tar overall upar jaari raheinge, aur is liye mujhe sona mein jald hi short karnay ka koi dilchaspi nahi hai.



U.S. Dollar ka bhi dhyaan rakhein, iska ek manfi talluq hai, lekin kabhi-kabhi dono ek saath bhi barh sakte hain, to is baat ko bhi yaad rakhein. Yeh khaas kar tab sach hai jab zyada suraksha ki zarurat ho. Humen dekhna padega ke kya yeh hawaalat hote hain ya nahi, lekin is waqt lagta hai ke sona ek aise ilaake mein hai jahan bahut se log sochenge ke yeh "munasib" hai, toh is baat ko apne zehan mein rakhein.

EUR USD Forecast!

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

4 ghantay ka euro/dollar joda ka ta'luqat ka tajziya be-tabdeel hai. Pichlay saal maine sirf teen-wave struktures dekhi hain jo aapas mein barabar tabdeel hoti hain. Ek aur teen-wave strukture, jo ke neeche ki taraf hai, ka ijra jari hai. Qayam shuda wave 1 hai, lekin wave 2 ya b ne teen ya chaar martaba mushkil bana diya hai, aur koi yeh kah nahi sakta ke yeh mazeed mushkil na ho.

Haan ke European currency ko support nahi mil raha, lekin market hamesha joda ke liye demand barhane ke naye bahane dhoondti hai. Aisi surat haal normal nahi hai. Agar trend ka urooj dobara shuru hua, toh uski andaruni bunyad puri tarah se parhne mein mushkil hogi.

Presumed wave 2 ya b ke andaruni tajziya badal gaya hai. Kyunki aakhri neeche ki taraf ka wave be-intiha bara tha, toh main ab ise wave b ke taur par samajh raha hoon. Agar yeh sach hai, toh wave 3 ya c ab ban raha hai, aur poori wave 2 ya b mukammal ho chuki hai. Qaem hui bulandiyon se quotes ka abhi ka iztiraar qabil-e-qubool hai.

Thursday ko (ta'qreeban tajziya likhte waqt) euro/dollar joda ke rate mein sirf paanch basis points ki izafah hua. Lekin jo cheez ziada dilchasp hai, woh pair ki keemat mein tabdili se ziyada aaj kal ke movement ke indicator hai. Kal ka range bees basis points tha, aur aaj ka pandrah hai. Main samajhta hoon ke din abhi khatam nahi hua, aur poora American session baqi hai; kuch bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin doosre din se market fazool conclusions aur trading decisions mein jaldi nahi kar rahi.

General conclusion.

Tajziya ke mutabiq, bearish set of waves ka ijra jaari hai. Wave 2 ya b ka mukammal andaz hai, is liye main wave 3 ya c ka aghaz aur pair mein numaya girawat ka intizaar kar raha hoon. Ek maah pehle 1.1125 mark ko torne ki nakam koshish ne market ki sales ke liye taiyar hone ka ishara diya. Main abhi bech raha hoon.

Zyadah wave scale par dikhai deta hai ke correct karne wala wave 2 ya b ka ijra jari hai, jo pehle wave ki 61.8% Fibonacci se zyada lamba hai. Jaisa ke maine pehle bhi kaha hai, yeh critical nahi hai, aur pair mein girawat ke sath wave 3 ya c banane ka manzur hai.

GBP USD Forecast!

American session ke shurwat mein, GBP/USD 1.2690 par hai, 0/8 Murray ke neeche, aur December 27 se bane downtrend channel ke andar.British pound ne kal American session ke doran 1.2596 par pohanchne ke baad bounce kiya hai. Ye retracement 61.8% Fibonacci zone tak pohancha hai, jo ke trend ke mutabiq bechnay ka ishara ho sakta hai.

GBP thakawat ke nishan dikhata hai. Agar GBP/USD 1.2688 ke aas-pass 21 SMA ke neeche trade karta hai, toh yeh instrument apne bearish cycle ko dobara shuru kar sakta hai aur 200 EMA tak pohanch sakta hai jo 1.2656 par hai. Agar yeh level toota, toh keemat downtrend channel ke neeche pohanch sakti hai jo 1.2573 ke aas-pass hai, aur 7/8 Murray ke sath milta hai.

Agar British pound 1.27 ke upar consolidate hota hai toh bullish trend qaim reh sakta hai. Yeh zone 21 SMA aur 0/8 Murray ke support se ho sakta hai. Lekin eagle indicator ka negative signal hai, is liye hum agle kuch dinon tak 1.27 ke neeche bech sakte hain.

BTC USD FORECAST!

Daily Forecast:---

American session mein Bitcoin 42,441 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai, 21 SMA ke neeche, aur tez bearish pressure ke neeche. Daily chart par dekha ja sakta hai ki Bitcoin ka outlook negative hai aur yeh 43,500 se 44,500 ke beech ek strong bearish pressure zone ke neeche trade kar raha hai.

Bitcoin ek negative signal generate kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh instrument selling opportunities offer karta hai agar kisi bhi technical bounce ya BTC 4/8 Murray ke neeche ya 21 SMA ke neeche trade karta hai, ya agar yeh 44,500 tak pahunchta hai, jahan ek strong weekly resistance hai.

Dusri taraf, agar Bitcoin aane wale ghanton mein ghat raha hai, toh yeh 2/8 Murray zone tak pahunch sakta hai, jo ek strong weekly support ko darust karta hai. Agar yeh scenario sach hota hai aur Bitcoin is area ke upar consolidate karta hai, toh yeh ek mauka ho sakta hai 40,600 ke aas-paas kharidne ka.

Eagle indicator ek negative signal de raha hai lekin oversold levels ke kareeb bhi hai. Bitcoin aane wale kuch dino tak 44,500 ke neeche aur 40,600 ke upar trade karne ki sambhavna hai. Dono levels kharidne ya bechne ka avsar pradan kar sakte hain.

USD JPY ANALYSIS:--

Subah koi bhi price test nahi hua kyunki pair ki volatility mein tez ghatnaon ki wajah se. lekin kuch US data aur Fed representatives ke bayanat ke baad sab kuch badal sakta hai. Shram bazaar par reports dollar par adhik prabhav nahi dalenge, lekin vastu vikas market ke reports pair ki disha tay kar sakte hain. Agar building permits aur new foundations par bahut kam figures aaye, toh dollar ki sthiti ko nakaratmak prabhavit karega. Isse USD/JPY mein correction hoga. Agar bahut achhe data aaye, toh dollar ki maang badhegi, jisse pair mein vridhi hogi.

Long positions ke liye:

Buy karein jab price 147.96 tak pahunchti hai (chart par hari line) aur profit 148.33 par lein. Vridhi upar ki disha mein hogi.

Kharidte waqt ye dhyan rakhein ki MACD line zero ke upar ho ya usse badh rahi ho. USD/JPY ko 147.66 ke do consecutive price tests ke baad bhi kharidne ka vichar karein, lekin MACD line oversold area mein hona chahiye, tabhi market 147.96 aur 148.33 ki taraf badlegi.

Short positions ke liye:

Sell karein jab price 147.66 tak pahunchti hai (chart par laal line) aur profit 147.35 par lein. Dabaav kam hone ke bawajood, Fed representatives ke bayanat ke baad chhoti correction ho sakti hai.

Bechte waqt ye dhyan rakhein ki MACD line zero ke neeche ho ya usse ghat rahi ho. USD/JPY ko 147.96 ke do consecutive price tests ke baad bhi bechne ka vichar karein, lekin MACD line overbought area mein hona chahiye, tabhi market 147.66 aur 147.35 ki taraf badlegi.

GOLD ANALYSIS!

European session mein, sona taqreeban $2,023.38 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo ke kal 2,001 ke qareeb low pohanchne ke baad bounce kar raha hai, jo ke $2,000 ke qareeb ek nafsiyati level ke bohat qareeb tha. Yeh level December 26 se ban rahe downtrend channel ke neeche wala tha.

H-4t Time Frame Outlook:---

H4 chart ke mutabiq, XAU/USD ke aas paas 21 SMA ke strong resistance zone hai jo $2,026 par hai, aur 200 EMA ke aas paas bhi ek resistance zone hai jo $2,030 par hai, aur akhir mein 5/8 Murray ke aas paas $2,031 hai. Agar sona is area ko todne ki koshish karta hai aur bahar nikalne mein nakam hota hai, to isay $2,026-2,032 ke neeche bechne ka mauka samjha ja sakta hai.

Ulta, agar sona $2,032 ke ooper consolidate hota hai, to hume umeed hai ke yeh downtrend channel ke top tak pohanch sakta hai jo $2,047 ke aas paas hai. Yeh level bhi strong resistance offer kar sakta hai aur hume technical correction ka intezar karne ko majboor kar sakta hai.

Technical tor par, sona bearish trend mein hai aur yeh current bounce bechna jari rakhne ka mauka samjha ja sakta hai. Sirf agar sona $2,032 ke ooper consolidate hota hai, to yeh bechne ka mauka samjha ja sakta hai jiska target $2,015 ho sakta hai.

Daily pivot point $2,015 ke aas paas hai, jo sona ke liye ek ahem area ko darust karta hai. To, agar yeh aane wale dino mein is area ke ooper trade karta hai, to hume ek recovery ki umeed hai aur keemat $2,030 aur $2,045 tak pohanch sakti hai.

Agar sona $2,015 ke neeche gir jata hai, to hume bearish tez tareen girawat ka samna karna parega. Yeh instrument 4/8 Murray ke aas paas $2,000 aur haftay ki support 1,992 tak pohanch sakta hai.

Aglay kuch ghanton ke liye, hamara nazar sona ke liye bearish reh sakta hai. Isliye, sirf agar sona $2,032 ke neeche gir jata hai, to bechne ke maukaon ki talash ki ja sakti hai. Eagle indicator ek musbat signal de raha hai lekin ek technical correction ko dobara shuru hone ki umeed hai. Acha idea yeh ho sakta hai ke $2,015 ka intezaar kiya jaye taake khareedne ka mauka mil sake.

USD CAD Forecast:---

USD/CAD chart neutral bias ke saath suggest karta hai jisme tawajjuh 1st resistance aur 1st support levels ke darmiyan price ke fluctuation par hai. Yahan key support aur resistance levels hain:

**Resistance Levels:**
1. 1st resistance level $1.3525, "Pullback resistance" ke tor par pehchana gaya hai, jo ke aage ki upar ki taraf movement ko rokne ka kaam kar sakta hai.
2. 2nd resistance level $1.3554 bhi "Pullback resistance" ke tor par label kiya gaya hai. Yeh ek aur level hai jahan bechne ki dabav paida ho sakta hai aur price ko upar jane se rok sakta hai.

**Support Levels:**
1. 1st support level $1.3477, aik ahem support zone hai, "Pullback support" ke tor par mark kiya gaya hai. Yeh level kharidari ke interest ko khinch sakta hai aur maqboliyat ka kaam kar sakta hai.
2. 2nd support level $1.3442 "Overlap support" ke tor par label kiya gaya hai. Yeh ek aur support zone hai jahan traders long positions mein dakhil ho sakte hain.

SILVER FORECAST!

Silver haftay ke doran shuru mein gir gaya tha, lekin yeh phir se zaroori $22 ke level par thora sa khareedari dabao dikhata hai. Silver market mein shuru mein kamiyan hone ke bawajood, hamare neeche se khareedne wale logon ko dekhte hain jo is market ko apni taraf khinch rahe hain. $22 ke level ke neeche ek bada round number hai jise bahut log mad e nazar rakhenge, aur yeh ek area hai jahan humne pehle bhi khareedne wale dekhe hain. Iske alawa, humare paas usi kshetra mein 200-week EMA bhi hai, isliye main samajhta hoon ki shayad yeh sirf samay ki ek baat hai jab tak hum uchchaye nahi jaate hain. Agar hum 50-week EMA ke upar ja sake, toh yeh ek raasta kholta hai $24.50 ke level tak, shayad $26 ke level tak bhi.

Weekly Technical Analysis:---

Amum-taur par, yeh ek aisa mahaul hai jahan har baar jab hum girte hain, yeh sirf sasta silver khareedne ka ek mauka hai.
Agar hum $22 ke level ke neeche gir jaate hain, toh yeh mumkin hai ki hum $21 ke level tak ja sake. Lekin abhi, main samajhta hoon ki hum shayad wahi prakar ki consolidation bana rahe hain jo hamne pichle kai saalon mein bahut dekha hai. Yeh ho sakta hai ki yeh choutha saal ho jaye jahan hum ek range banate hain. Abhi, lag raha hai ki $22 neeche aur $26 upar, aur yeh do levels hain jo kaafi samay se maayne rakhte hain. Sab kuch barabar hone par, main silver par bullish hoon, lekin main yeh bhi maanta hoon ki is waqt bahut saare factors hain, aur isliye yahan par humein aksar tezi dekhne ko milegi.


Daily Technical Analysis:---

Silver ne $22.50 ke qareeb mazboot support hasil kiya hai aur $22.70 ke level par chadhne ki koshish kar raha hai.
Agar yeh koshish kamyaab ho jati hai, toh silver $23.00 ke level ki taraf badhega. $23.00 ke upar jaane se raaste khul jaayenge $23.40 - $23.60 ke resistance ki taraf.

Dusri taraf, Silver gold/silver ratio ke naye uchhain ko test karte hue zameen kho raha hai. Agar gold/silver ratio mansik roop se mahatva purna 90 ke level ke upar baith jaata hai, toh yeh aur bhi tezi se badh sakta hai, jo silver ke liye bearish hoga.
$22.25 - $22.50 ke support ke neeche jaane se silver ko agla support level prapt hoga, jo $21.50 - $21.70 range mein sthit hai.

USD INDEX FORECAST!

Weekly Forecast:---

Iss haftay shuru hony waly taiz maqamiyat ki bina par dollar ki mazboot bullish rafter mein dehshat angez moat ka sabab ban raha tha, jo kay Middle East aur Red Sea ilaqon mein shadeed barhti hui jang ke asarat se paida hua. Lekin, Gaza mein jang mein izafay ya United States aur Houthi rebel ke darmiyan taza hostilities ka dobara shuru hona dobara safe-haven dollar mein dilchaspi paida kar sakta hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke agar aisa ho to Monday ko dobara aisi surat mein kholay jaye.



Haftay ke ikhtitam par, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) aik range ke andar hai, jis mein is waqt 103.00 ke level se thora ooper trade ho raha hai.Technically dekha jaye to, U.S. Dollar Index (CFD #USDX on MT4 terminal) 103.70 (daily chart par 200 EMA, 144 EMA) ke darmiyan key medium-term resistance level ko torne ki koshish kar raha hai.

Isi doran, keemat long-term bullish market zone mein hai, haftay ke chart par 100.55 (200 EMA) key long-term support level ke ooper.Is liye, agar key medium-term resistance level 103.70 ko tor diya jaye to U.S. Dollar Index ko medium-term bullish market zone mein wapas le aye ga.


H-1 Chart Pr !


Ek alternative scenario mein, 103.15 (daily chart par 50 EMA) ka important support level torhna, short positions ko dobara shuru karne ka pehla signal ho sakta hai, jabke 102.88 (1-hour chart par 200 EMA) aur 102.84 (4-hour chart par 200 EMA) jaise important short-term support levels ko torne se yeh confirm hoga.



Mazeed girawat aur key long-term support level 100.55 (weekly chart par 200 EMA) ko torne ke baad, jo ke 100.00 ke level ko bhi shamil kare gi, DXY ko long-term bearish market zone mein daal dega, jo ke technical hawale se long-term short positions ko afzal banaye ga.



Support levels:
103.15, 103.00, 102.88, 102.84, 102.70, 102.28, 102.05, 102.00, 101.70, 101.00, 100.55, 100.00

Resistance levels:
103.70, 104.00, 105.00, 105.90

GOLD FORECAST!

Daily Forecast!

Sona ke mustaqbil taqseemat haftay ko maqool rozana faiday ke sath band karta hai. 4:15 PM ET tak, sab se mutasir February futures contract $10 (0.49%) izafay ke sath $2031.60 par band hua. Sona ke futures $2027.40 par shuru hue, $2044.90 tak pohnch kar, aur $2022.20 par gir kar band hue. Tuesday aur Wednesday ke tez girawat ne haftay mein kami ka nateeja diya. In dono dinon ki trading se $44.80 ki kami hui. Tuesday ko $20 ki keemat ka girawat aam taur par dollar mein shadeed izafa ke natayej mein aaya, jo ke open par gap kha kar 0.76% izafay ke sath band hua. Wednesday ko, gold mein kami tab ayi jab Federal Reserve ke pehle rate cut ke mutaliq or is saal ke overall rate cuts ke mutaliq market ki manfi raayi thi. Is se haftay mein $20 ki kami hui.

Tuesday ko, market mein mojood logon ne Federal Reserve ke 12 vote lene wale sadasy, Christopher Waller ke Brookings Institution mein diye gaye taqreer par tawajju di. Jese ke Federal Reserve ke 12 vote lene wale sadasy, unki baaton mein wazan hota hai. Taqreeban, unhone wohi bayan kiya jo Chairman Powell ne apni December ki press conference mein izhar kiya tha, jisme unhon ne is saal se shuru hone wale rate cuts ko shamil karne ka irada zahir kiya.

Ek retail sales report ne Wednesday ko bataya ke December mein retail sales mein 0.6% izafah hua. Is ne Federal Reserve ko rate cuts ko jald az jald na karne par mazboot kiya.

Lekin Thursday ko, gold ke liye bearish market sentiment bullish par tabdeel hui jab investors ne apni tawajju ko Federal Reserve ki monetary policy se le kar Yemen mein Iranian-backed Houthis ke continued attacks par barhati. October 7 se unhone South Red Sea mein merchant aur military ships par lagbhag 100 missile aur drone attacks launch kiye the.

United States aur Britain ki raaya mein ek coalition ne Houthis ki salahiyat kam karne aur Pentagon ke mutabiq ek dafai amal ko kamzor karne ke liye mazeed hamle launch kiye. Pentagon ki spokesperson Sabrina Singh ne kaha, "Houthis hi woh hain jo masoom mariners par cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles hamla kar rahe hain... Hum jo kar rahe hain, apne humsayaon ke sath, wo apne difa mein shamil hai."

Is military conflict ki barhne wale parwaz ki wajah se gold ne kal $16.30 aur aaj aur $10 izafah kiya.

BTC USD FORECAST!

American session mein Bitcoin 41,404 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, 40,625 ke aas-paas pahunchne ke baad bounce kar raha hai. Hum ummid karte hain ki agle kuch ghanton mein Bitcoin apne utar chadhaav ko extend karega aur 42,187 par 3/8 Murray tak pahunchega. Shayad ye 200 EMA jo 43,000 par sthit hai, tak pahunch sakta hai.

12 January ko, Bitcoin ne 200 EMA ke neeche gir gaya tha. Tab se hamne volatility mein ghatiya aur BTC ne consolidation stage mein pravesh kiya hai. Takneekan, hum dekh rahe hain ki Bitcoin thak gaya hai, kyun ki ye oversold levels tak pahunch chuka hai. Isliye, aane wale dino mein ek takneeki punarpravah hone ki sambhavna hai aur token 43,500 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Tez euphoria ke karan ise 48,983 ke ucch sthal tak pahuncha, lekin ye 6/8 Murray ke upar sthir nahi ho paya. Ab hum ummid karte hain ki punaruddhar hoga taaki ye apne bearish cycle ko dubara shuru kar sake.

Agar Bitcoin aane wale dino mein 43,750 par 4/8 Murray ke upar consolidate hota hai, to ye ek sakaratmak signal hoga jisme hum bullish cycle ko dubara shuru kar sakte hain aur BTC 45,300 ke aas-paas tak aur shayad 46,875 ke aas-paas tak pahunch sakta hai.

Agar Bitcoin aane wale dino mein $40,000 ke mansik star ke neeche gir jata hai, to ye ek bearish signal ke roop mein dekha ja sakta hai aur short term mein $35,000 tak pahunch sakta hai. Humko is kshetra (40,600) ke neeche gira to kharidna bachana chahiye.

NZD USD ANALYSIS!

Jaise ki sabko pata hai, CPI moolya vriddhi ka ek mahatva poorna suchak hai, jo ek vastuon aur sevaon ka tokra darshan karta hai.

Pichle CPI moolya: 3rd quarter 2023 mein +1.8% (+5.6% YoY), 2nd quarter 2023 mein +1.1% (+6.0% YoY). Sanket hai ki 4th quarter mein ghatan hoga +0.6% (+4.7% YoY), jo New Zealand Dollar par nakaratmak prabhav daal sakta hai. Wahi, desh mein moolya vriddhi ab bhi uchch hai, 2–3% ke lakshya shreni ke bahut upar, jo New Zealand Reserve Bank ko lambi samay tak uncha byaaj daro ka palan karne par majboor kar sakta hai. Ye New Zealand Dollar ke liye ek sakaratmak kshetra hai.


Technical Outlook:---

From a technical standpoint, October ke end tak jo 0.5773 level tha, uske baad 0.6370 level tak 10% izafah hone ke bawajood, NZD/USD long-term bearish zone mein hai. Long-term bullish zone mein dakhil hone ke liye, keemat ko 0.6400, 0.6420, aur 0.6485 key resistance levels se guzar jana zaroori hai. Magar agar 0.6100 level par gir jaye, to yeh pair ek naye giravat ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai.

EUR USD FORECAST!

EUR USD NEWS:--

Mangal ko, Eurozone mein flash consumer confidence ko mad-e-nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar consumer confidence mein beexpecti gir jaye to yeh ishara ho sakta hai ke maamool se kam ho sakta hai. Euro area ki arzi maal-o-daulat ki 50% se zyada private sector consumption hai. Kamzor spending outlook Eurozone ki mawad mein girawat ka khatra barha sakta hai. Lekin naram consumption outlook demand-driven inflationary pressure ko kam kar sakta hai. Naram inflation ECB ko rate cuts par guftago shuru karne ki ijaazat de sakti hai.

Maeishat-dan Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index ko maeishat-dan log Janwari mein -15.0 se -14.0 tak barhne ka tajwez karte hain.

Budh ko, private sector PMIs par investor ki tawajju zaroori hai. France, Germany, aur Eurozone ke taqreeban tamam PMIs ECB ke interest rate maqasid par asar dalenge. Services PMI figures zyada asar daalenge. Services sector Eurozone ki maeishat mein se 60% se zyada hissa hai. Ehmiyat hai ke services sector inflation mein ziada hissa deta hai. Investors ko sub-components, jese ke prices aur employment, ko bhi mad-e-nazar rakhna chahiye.

Economists Eurozone Services PMI ko 48.8 se 49.0 tak barhne ka tajwez karte hain.

Jumeraat ko, French aur German business confidence numbers investor ki tawajju ko khichenge. Germany ki maeishat ke barhte hue shubhawalon ke darmiyan, German Ifo Business Climate Index ziada asar dal sakta hai.

Short-Term Forecast::!

EUR/USD ke qareebi trends private sector PMIs, ECB, aur US inflation par mabni hain. Mazboot US service sector activity, aik naram ECB, aur jammed US inflation US dollar ki taraf monetary policy divergence ko murattib kar saktay hain.

EUR USD FORECAST:---


D-1 Chart Outlook!

EUR/USD ne 50-day aur 200-day EMAs ke ooper qaim rahe, jazbati keemat ke isharaat ko tasdeeq karte huye.EUR/USD ka $1.09294 resistance level ko par karna aik $1.10720 resistance level ki taraf aik qadam hai. EUR/USD ka $1.10720 resistance level ko par karna $1.11 handle ko khilane ka asar daal sakta hai.Markazi nuqta services sector PMIs, ECB, aur US inflation hain.

Lekin, 50-day EMA ke neeche girna $1.07838 support level tak girne ko hosla afzai karega.
14-period Daily RSI 45.88 par hai jo ishara karta hai ke EUR/USD $1.07838 support level tak girne se pehle oversold territory mein daakhil ho sakta hai.



H-4 Chart Outlook!

EUR/USD 50-day aur 200-day EMAs ke neeche baithe huye hain, jo ke bearish keemat ke isharaat ko bhej rahe hain. Khaas taur par, 50-day EMA ne 200-day EMA ke saath mil gaya hai. Ek bearish cross bearish qareebi keemat trend ko tasdeeq karega.

EUR/USD ka EMAs aur $1.09294 resistance level ko paar karna $1.10720 resistance level ki taraf aik qadam hai.Lekin, $1.08500 handle ke neeche girna $1.07838 support level tak girne ko hosla afzai karega.

14-period 4-Ghante RSI 51.37 par hai jo ishara karta hai ke EUR/USD $1.10720 resistance level tak barhne se pehle overbought territory mein daakhil ho sakta hai.

SILVER FORECAST!

Silver ki qeemat ne pichle haftay mein kami ki, jo ke chaar hafton mein teesri haar hai. Is trend ka bara hissa Federal Reserve ke policy makers ke taqreerat ki wajah se tha, jo ke jald rate cut hone ke imkanat ko kam kar rahi thi.

Silver (XAG/USD) $22.62 par settle hua, jo ke $0.57 ya -2.47% kam hua.


Federal Reserve ki Tehqiqat:---

Federal Reserve ke afraad, jese ke Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee aur Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, ne rate adjustments mein ihtiyaat ki zarurat ka izhar kiya. Goolsbee ne kisi bhi rate cut faislay se pehle mazeed maaloomat ki zarurat hai kaha, jabke Bostic ne teesre quarter mein shuru hone wale rate cuts ki alamat di. Is ihtiyaati rawayat ko San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly aur Governor Christopher Waller jese doosre Fed members ne bhi support kiya, jo rate changes mein gradual approach ko mad-e-nazar rakh rahe hain.

Treasury Yields aur Dollar par impact:--;

Fed ki ihtiyaati stance ne sirf U.S. Dollar ko hi nahi balki Treasury yields par bhi asar dala. Pichle haftay mein, 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield ne 4.145 par pohanch kar 0.196 ya +4.96% barh gaya, jo ke sarkari securities mein invest karne mein barh chuki investor ki rujhan ko darust karti hai. Yields mein is izafay ke saath hi, U.S. Dollar index (DXY) mein 1% izafa, dollar-denominated silver ko foreign investors ke liye mehenga banaya.

Maeeshati Dalail

Market ki tawajju Federal Reserve ke rate cut timeline par thi, jo silver ki qeemat mein izafay ka sabab bana. Traders ab March mein rate cut hone ke kam imkanat ka intezar kar rahe hain, jiska imkan May ki taraf shift ho raha hai. Maeeshati data ne is tasawwur ko taasur diya, jese ke haftay bhar mein umeed se kam jobless claims aur University of Michigan ke Consumer Survey mein izafay ne bataya ke U.S. ki maeeshat taqwiyat mein hai. Is ke ilawa, December mein U.S. retail sales expectations ko paar kar gayi, jo maeeshat ki mazbooti ko mazeed barha rahi hai.

Short- term Outlook:---

Aanay wale haftay mein, silver ke liye qareebi manzar ihtiyaati tor par kamzor hai, kuch ahem maeeshati dalail aur Federal Reserve ki policy ki asar mein. Fed ki jaldi rate cut karne mein rukawat ka silver ko foran hedging ka zariya kam kar deti hai, jabke tawajju haftay bhar mein barhi hui 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield ki taraf shift ho rahi hai. Is ke ilawa, U.S. Dollar ki mazbooti, jo Dollar index (DXY) mein izafay ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai, silver ke foreign demand ko kam kar sakti hai.

Aanay wale haftay mein mumtaz maeeshati reports, jese ke Flash Manufacturing aur Services PMI, Advanced GDP, Core PCE Price Index, aur Personal Income and Spending data, ahem hongi. Agar maeeshati growt indicators ya umeed se zyada inflation ke figures aaye to, to dollar ki mazbooti ko taqwiyat mil sakti hai, jo silver ki qeemat par aur dabao dal sakti hai. Traders ko in releases ke aas paas mumkin market volatility ke liye taiyar rehna chahiye aur ek mustaid strategy banani chahiye, jise maeeshati manzar ke mutabiq adjust kiya ja sake.