PakeezaBaloch Trading Journal

GOLD FORECAST!

Sona, 2,030 ke neeche gir kar, US Treasury bond yield jo ke 4% se oopar chala gaya, ne XAU/USD par dabaav daala. Ye hua baad mein jab US data ne dikhaya ke December mein saalana Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation 3.4% tak pahunch gaya.

Technical Outlook:---

Technical nazariye se dekhein to, agla uthan halki resistance ke saath mukabla karte hue, $2,040-2,042 kshetra ke aas-pass rukavat aa sakti hai. Jo bhi aage ka kadam hoga, woh sambhalte rehne ke liye taiyaar rahega, $2,064 kshetra ke aas-pass, jisse aage badh kar $2,077 kshetra tak pahuncha ja sakta hai. Kuch aur khareedari ke saath, koi bhi nazdeeki nakaratmak drishti ko negated kar degi aur seedha $2,100 round figure ko dobara haasil karne ki disha mein taiyaar karegi.

Ulta, $2,020 star, jise $2,017-2,016 kshetra ke aas-pass kaafi samay se low mil raha hai, aur 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), jo abhi $2,013 kshetra ke aas-pass hai, kisi bhi mahatva purn giraavat se bachaav karega. Iske nichhe ka koi convincing break naye bearish traders ke liye ek naya trigger hoga, aur Gold price ko $2,000 psychological mark tak le ja sakta hai. Kyunki daily chart par oscillators abhi haal hi mein negative traction gain karne lage hain, is niche ke trajectory mein aur extension ho sakti hai, takriban $1,973 kshetra ke aas-pass, jo December ke swing low ke paas hai. XAU/USD ant mein $1,965-1,963 confluence tak gir sakta hai, jisme 100-aur 200-day SMAs shaamil hain.




Fundamental Overview:---

Gold price (XAU/USD) ne Thursday ko kuch bids pakad liye hain aur Europe session ke pehle hisse mein apne bid tone ko banaye rakha hai, haalaanki yeh $2,040-$2,042 resistance zone ke neeche hai. US Dollar (USD) ek dhimi negative bias ke saath trade kar raha hai, jo ek hafta ya usse zyada ka samay se chal raha hai, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke rate-cut path ke baare mein uncertainty ke beech. Iske saath hi, Israel-Hamas war aur China mein dhimi recovery ke baare mein chinta, in sab ne safe-haven precious metal ko thoda sa support diya hai.

Lekin, investors ne abhi tak Fed ki policy tightening ke prati ek adhik aggressive ummeedon ko kam kar diya hai, jab ek abhi bhi resilient US economy ke baare mein baat ki ja rahi hai. Ye non-yielding Gold price ke aas-pass fresh bets lagane se rokta hai. Investors bhi aise lag rahe hain jaise woh US consumer inflation figures ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo aaj ke din aayenge, Fed ki future policy decisions ke baare mein cues ke liye. Yeh USD demand ko drive karega aur XAU/USD ke nazdeekin future trajectory ko tay karega.

CRUDE Oil Forecast!

Iran ne ek tanker ko qabza kia jo pehle se America ne zabt kiya tha, Middle East mein mazeed escalations ki paish-e-nazar se pareshani barh rahi hai.
WTI oil ne Iran ke tanker ko qabza karnay par izafay ke sath ground hasil kia, jo pehle se America ne zabt kiya tha.Yad rahay ke WTI oil ne $73.00 - $74.00 ke resistance par settle karne mein kamiyabi nahi hasil ki, jise global economy ki sehat par lekar pareshani hai. Thursday ko Middle East mein barhte hue tensions ke baad global oil prices mein 2% se zyada izafa hua.Aise considerations ne dollar ke strong US inflation data ke baad bhi tez izafa kiye aur aik heran kun US inventory crude buildup ke baad.

Prices:---
US crude ne 2.3% izafa karke $72.93 per barrel tak pohancha, jabke Brent ne 2.2% izafa karke $78.38 per barrel tak pohancha.US crude ne Wednesday ko 1.25% khoya, jabke Brent ne EIA ke haftayana inventory report ke baad 1% se zyada gira.

Middle East Tensions':--

Iranian state media ne kaha ke authorities ne aik oil tanker ko qabza kia hai jo pehle se America ne Iran se zabt kiya tha, ye kadam tensions ko barhane mein madadgar hoga.Is ke ilawa, Yemen mein mojood Iran-backed Houthi group commercial ships ko harass aur attack kar raha hai, jo Red Sea se guzar rahe hain, jisse crude aur doosre asbaab ki global supplies par khatra hai.US aur Britain dono ne kaha hai ke agar attacks jari rahe toh wo apne countermeasures ko barhaenge.



Brent Oil:--

Brent oil ne Middle East mein barhte hue tensions ko support karke izafa kia.Agar Brent oil $79.27 ke 50 MA ke upar jata hai, toh wo $83.50 - $84.50 ke resistance ki taraf jaega.


GOLD FORECAST!---


Gold prices Thursday ko European trade mein izafa ki taraf ja rahe hain, jo teesre din mein doosre profit ko darust kar rahe hain, jab dollar ne major rivals ke against ground khoya.Ye izafay major US inflation data ke samne aaye hain jo December ke liye hai, jisme Federal Reserve ki inflation ke khilaf apni jung mein ki gayi progress ko darust karega.


Aise data ne haal hi mein strong US labor data ke baad kam hui US interest rate cut odds ke liye taza pricing dene ki ummeed hai.Prices TodayGold prices ne 0.6% izafa karke $2,035 per ounce tak pohancha, jiske session-low $2,014 tha, jise global stock markets ke izafay ke doraan haven demand ki wajah se Wednesday ko 0.3% ki kami hui thi.

BITCOIN FORECAST!

Bohot se traders ne Bitcoin ko khareedne aur bechne mein shor machaya, jabke bade khiladi volatility se faida utha rahe hain. Michael van de Poppe jaise mashhoor mahir ne bhi tweet kiya ke markets aasani se manipulate ho sakte hain. Magar kal, SEC ki official website par spot Bitcoin ETF ke liye application ki manzoori ke baare mein malumat milti hai, aur kuch ghanton baad hi, Gary Gensler ne U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ki website mein ek breach ka ilan kiya.

Is ke natije mein, naye investement instrument ke ird gird jazbat buland hain, aur community tamam dastiyab coins ko khareedne mein masroof hai. Bitcoin jald hi ek correction ka samna kar sakta hai, kyun ke market ne spot Bitcoin ETFs ke liye manzoori factor ko puri tarah se daakhil kar liya hai. Magar is waqt correction ke liye koi signals nahi hain, is liye Bitcoin ko bechna mashwara nahi hai.

Daily Time Frame Outlook:---

24 ghanton ke time frame par, Bitcoin ne $45,256 level ko paar kar liya hai. Isliye is waqt khareedna sab se mantooq aur maqool option hai, jiske targets $48,500 aur $51,350 par set hain. Is waqt koi bechne ki signals ya ishara nahi hai. Sirf kisi bhi target level se bounce ke baad ham short positions ko madde nazar lekar sochenge, jiska maqsad nazdeek tar lower level ko pohanchana hoga. Lekin ascending trendline bullish sentiment ki istiqamat ko darust karti hai, isliye abhi ke liye khareedna mufeed hai.

EUR USD Forecast!

America ke session ke shuru mein, EUR/USD pair 1.0985 ke aaspaas trade kar raha hai, jo ke 2/8 Murray ka mazboot resistance hai, aur 1.10 ke nafazati level ke qareeb hai.Investors ko America mein taqseem hone wale mahine ki maalumat ki be-aabroo'i ka samna karna pad raha hai. Agar CPI 3.2% se oopar ho to dollar ko faida hoga, is liye Euro 21 SMA ke qareeb 1.0950 tak gir sakti hai, aur shayad 200 EMA (1.0919) tak pohanch sakti hai, aur bullish trend channel ko tod sakti hai jo January ke shuru se bana hua hai.

Dusri taraf, agar euro 1.10 aur 2/8 Murray ke upar mazbooti se qaim ho jata hai, to is ka intezar hai ke izaafi izafa hota rahega, aur ye top of the bullish trend channel tak pohanch sakti hai jo 1.1065 ke aaspaas hai, aur shayad 3/8 Murray tak pohanch sakti hai jo 1.1108 ke aaspaas hai.Eagle indicator ne January 8 se positive signal de raha hai, lekin euro ko 1.10 par mazboot resistance ka samna hai. Is liye, jab tak EUR/USD 1.0900 ke upar trade karta hai, to koi bhi girawat ko kharidne ka mauka samjha jayega

USD JPY FORECAST!

USD/JPY ke qareebi trends US producer prices aur central bank commentary par mabni hain. Producer prices mein izafah Fed ko rate cut ki timing ko dair karne par majboor kar sakta hai. BoJ ke negative rates se nikalne ki beton mein kami aur Fed ke rate cut ki dairi monetary policy ko US dollar ki taraf murne mein madad kar sakti hai.

USD/JPY Ke Price Action

Daily Chart Outlook!

USD/JPY ne 50-day EMA ke neeche reh kar 200-day EMA ke oopar rahte hue bearish qareebi lekin bullish lambi muddat ke signals diye hain.Agar USD/JPY 50-day EMA ko paar kare toh 146.649 resistance level ki taraf ek kadam badhaega.

Jumma ko, tawajju central bank commentary aur US producer prices par hogi.Magar, agar 144.713 support level se gir jaye toh bears ko 200-day EMA par dastak de sakti hai.14-day RSI 53.17 par hai jo dikhata hai ke USD/JPY 146.649 resistance level se guzarne ke baad overbought territory mein dakhil ho sakta hai.



4-Hourly Chart!-

USD/JPY 50-day aur 200-day EMAs ke oopar rahte hue bullish price signals bhej raha hai.USD/JPY ka wapas 146 handle par aana 146.649 resistance level ki taraf ek kadam badhaega.Magar, agar 200-day EMA aur 144.713 support level ko tod diya jaye toh 50-day EMA aakar khel mein aa sakta hai.

14-period 4-hour RSI 51.79 par hai jo dikhata hai ke USD/JPY 146.649 resistance level ko paar karne ke baad overbought territory mein dakhil ho sakta hai.




Thursday ko USD/JPY ne 0.34% giravat ki. Wednesday ki 0.89% ki izafah se aadhi raaste par chal kar USD/JPY ne session ko 145.260 par khatam kiya. USD/JPY ne 146.413 tak barhne ke baad 145.207 par gir gaya.
Jumma ko, Japan se current account figures ne dhyan khicha. November mein current account surplus 2,582.8 billion Yen se 1,925.6 billion Yen tak kam hua. Maqami tajaweez ke mutabiq economists ne 2,385.1 billion Yen ka current account surplus tajwez kiya tha.

Narrowing ka market reaction mamoolan se mehdood tha. Investors BoJ par tawajju jama rahe hain jabke negative interest rates se bahir nikalne ke irade kamzor ho rahe hain.Haali mein inflation, household spending, aur wage growth figures ne BoJ par negative rates se bahir nikalne ka dabao kam kiya hai. Lekin tawajju March ke wage negotiations par bani hai jo BoJ ko negative rates se bahir nikalne par dabao daal sakti hain.

Chhote arsey mein, monetary policy aur negative rates ab mabni hain. Investors ko Jumma ko BoJ ki commentary par nazar rakhni chahiye.

BTC USD Analysis!

Subah ke American session mein, Bitcoin (BTC) lagbhag 46,114 ke aas-pass trade kar raha hai, haftay ke support ke qareeb pahunchne ke baad. H4 chart mein, hum dekh sakte hain ki Bitcoin ne 3 January se ek uptrend channel ke andar move kiya hai. Agar ye dobara 46,400 ke upar trade kare, toh ye apne bullish cycle ko dobara shuru kar sakta hai aur BTC 48,437 tak pahunch sakta hai.

BTC ne 48,983 ke maksimum tak pahunch kar majboot bearish pressure ke neeche aaya hai, jiske baad price 46,356 par sthit 21 SMA ke neeche consolidate ho sakta hai. BTC bhi 6/8 Murray ke neeche aur uptrend channel ke bottom ke upar 45,200 ke aas-pass ek range zone ke andar trade kar sakta hai, jo 5/8 Murray ke saath match karta hai, aur ye achha support aur ek buying opportunity pradan kar sakta hai.

H-4 Time Frame Outlook!

H4 chart ke mutabiq, Bitcoin abhi bhi bullish momentum maintain kar raha hai aur hum ummid karte hain ki ye aane wale dino mein $50,000 ke psychological level tak pahunch sakega. Iske liye, moolya ko 46,875 par sthapit karne ka moolya hoga.

Agar ye shart puri nahi hoti, toh Bitcoin majboot neeche ki or dabav mein aasakta hai aur hum ise 43,750 par sthit 4/8 Murray tak pahunchne ka anumaan laga sakte hain. Isse palatne par, bullish trend channel toot sakta hai aur ek naya technical correction cycle ka raasta khul sakta hai. Is natije mein, BTC 43,150 par sthit 200 EMA aur ant mein 42,187 par sthit 3/8 Murray tak pahunch sakta hai.

GOLD FORECAST!

American session ke shuruaat mein, sona lagbhag 2,045.84 ke aas-pass trade kar raha hai, jo daily chart par 12 November se bane uptrend channel ke andar hai, aur December 19 se bane secondary downtrend channel ke neeche hai.

D-1 Chart Analysis!

Kal, sona ne United States ke mahangai data ke baad dono channels ko test kiya. Sona ne 2,048 ke maksimum tak pahuncha aur phir tezi se gir kar 2,016 tak pahuncha, jo bullish channel ke neeche ka neeche gaya aur ise majbooti di. Ab ye lagbhag 2,045 ke aas-pass levels par wapas aa gaya hai. Hum ummid karte hain ki sona agle kuch ghanton mein 2,048 ke neeche ek majboot rejection payega, jo ek bechne ka mauka mana ja sakta hai.

Ulte, agar is secondary downtrend channel ka tez break hota hai aur agar price 2,050 ke upar consolidate hoti hai, toh hum sona ko 6/8 Murray tak pahunchne aur shayad 2,093 tak pahunchne ka anumaan laga sakte hain. Humara outlook daily chart par adharit hai aur ismein metal apne lakshya tak pahunchne mein ek se do hafton tak ka samay le sakta hai.

Agar sona downtrend channel ko todati nahi hai aur 2,048 par sthit 21 SMA ke neeche consolidate hoti hai, toh ise bechne ka ek mauka mana ja sakta hai, jiska pehla target 5/8 Murray 2,031 par ho sakta hai. Ye instrument shayad 2,048 ke neeche bhi ja sakta hai, jiska pahla lakshya 2,031 par 5/8 Murray ho sakta hai.

EUR USD Forecast!

Thursday ko EUR/USD pair ne pehle 38.2% (1.0982) corrective level se rebound kiya aur phir 50.0% Fibonacci level (1.0932) se rebound kiya. Jumma ko, ye dobara 38.2% corrective level par wapas gaya aur usse phir se rebound mila. Is tarah, ek aur reversal US dollar ki taraf mein hua, aur ek naya downward process 1.0932 ki taraf shuru hua. Agar pair rate phir se 1.0932 ke neeche consolidate ho jata hai, toh isse further decline ki chances badh jayengi, 61.8% (1.0883) ke next corrective level ki taraf.

Wave situation mein koi tabdili nahi hai. Last downward wave bilkul wahi khatam hui jahan pehle wali wave khatam hui thi (around 1.0890 level ke aspass). Is tarah, December 15 ke lows ka breakout toh hai, lekin price ne sirf kuch points hi update kiye hain, jo "bearish" trend ka ant declare karne ke liye kafi nahi hai. Naya upward wave kaafi kamzor hai aur December 28 ke peak ko break karne ki koi chance nahi hai, lekin ye haqeeqat bhi nahi hai ke "bullish" trend khatam ho gaya hai. Ek aur downward wave ki zarurat hai jo confidently January 5 ke lows ko break kare. Tab tak, horizontal movement aur "bullish" trend jaari rahega.



Thursday ko information background kaafi strong tha, lekin ye sirf December ke US inflation report ke through express hua. Traders ke liye ye nahi tha ke indicator 3.4% tak badhega, jabki core inflation 3.9% tak ghat gaya. In reports ke baad, dollar tezi se badha, lekin ye badhna aur lamba reh sakta tha. Kyunki bears ne 1.0932 level ke neeche establish nahi kiya, inflation report ka koi asar nahi hua. Ye dollar ko iski badhti hui raah par nahi roka, halaanki early 2024 mein Fed FOMC rate hike ki probability tezi se kam hui thi, jo bears ko support karna chahiye tha.

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

4-hour chart par, pair ne European currency ki taraf reversal kiya aur 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.0959) ke upar close kiya. Pair ne ascending trend corridor ki lower line ke bhi kareeb nahi aaya, iska matlab hai ki market mein "bullish" sentiment ke liye koi alternative nahi hai. Main euro currency ka significant decline tabhi expect karunga jab quotes corridor ke neeche consolidate honge. Nazdeek bhavishya mein, euro 76.4% corrective level (1.1081) ki taraf growth dikhayega, khaas kar agar ye hourly chart ke horizontal corridor se bahar nikalta hai.

CRUDE OIL

Weekly Crude Oil Market Analysis:---

Pichli haftay mein, tail market ne aik numaya kami mehsoos ki, jahan Brent crude aur West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dono kam hokar band hue. Is downtrend ka aghaz Saudi Arabia ki significant price reduction ne kia, jo ke U.S. aur Britain ke strikes ki wajah se Yemen ke Houthi maqamat par oil tankers ko dobara rasta badalnay se chhupa diya gaya. Light Crude Oil Futures $72.68 par band hua, 1.53% kam.




Market ka Jawab Saudi Price Cut par!

Hafta bearish note par shuru hua, jab Saudi Arabia ne Arab Light crude ka February official selling price (OSP) Asia ko ghata kar 27 mahinay ke low par pohancha diya. Is harkat ne Monday ko tez price decline ko trigger kia, Middle East mein hone wale siyasi bechaini ke bawajood. Saudi Arabia ki OSP mein kami, China ki darkhwast aur saari duniya bhar ki market ke mutalliq asal fikron ko darust karti hai.



Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Concerns


Jabke riwayati market bunyadi bunyadi taur par bearish outlook par hai, Middle East mein barhte hue siyasi tanazaat, jise hilaf-e-Moosarat ke strikes ne Red Sea shipping par kiya gaya, supply mein rukawat ka imkaan dikhate hain. Agar haqiqatan mein supply par asar ho, to yeh halat market ko bullish shift dene ka sabab ban sakta hai.


Haftawar Forecast:---

Maujooda market shiraa'it ke mutabiq, taqweem ahtiyaat se beherhaal rakhne ka maazi hai, jisme inventories aur global darkhwast ke lehaaz se bearish hone ka izhar hai. Magar tijarat karnewalon ko Middle East mein kisi bhi supply disruption ke liye mutawajjah rehna chahiye, jo jald hi market ko bullish stance mein tabdeel kar sakta hai.

Tajruba kar traders samajhte hain ke itni mushkil hawalaat mein, market sentiments jald badal sakti hain, jo ke siyasi waqiyat aur inventory data ke asar par mabni hoti hain. Yeh ke major players crude oil par short hain, unko bahir nikalne ke liye aik bari misdaq chahiye hogi. Agar aisa ho to short positions ko cover karne ke liye aik tezi se breakout hone ka imkaan hai.

SILVER FORECAST!


**Silver ki Daily Performance**

Aik haftay mein jo tajaweezi aur siyasi ma'amlaton se bharpoor tha, Spot Silver (XAG/USD) ne mazbooti dikhayi, haftay ko aam taur par $23.19 per ounce par khatam kiya, jisey asal taur par tabdeel nahi kiya gaya.

Haftay ki trading ko sarhadmum indicators ki tareefon ne mark kia, jo mustaqbil ki maaliyat policies aur investor sentiment mein izafay ke liye insights faraham kar rahay thay. Silver ne $23.50 ke level par hone ka ek koshish ki, jabke gold/silver ratio 88 level ki taraf wapas gayi.

Agar silver $23.40 - $23.60 ke resistance ke upar settle ho jata hai, to yeh aglay resistance $24.30 - $24.50 ki taraf chala jayega.




**Fed Rate Decision ka Mumkin Asar**

Mukhtalif CPI aur PPI data Federal Reserve ki policies par bohot gehraye se asar daal saktay hain. Jabke CPI data ne ek ziada hawkish stance ko barah-e-rast la sakti thi, PPI mein dikhayi jane wali asaanai ye ishara kar rahi hai ke mehengai ki dabawat kam ho sakti hai. Is tazad se Federal Reserve ke aglay rate cut ki timing ke baray mein tawajju paida hoti hai, jo silver markets ke liye ek ahem factor hai. Agar rate cut aitmaad se pehle ho, to yeh silver ke liye bullish ho sakta hai, jo ke yield-bearing assets ki khoobi ko kam karke maweshiyon ki taraf investors ko le ja sakta hai.

**Silver Weekly Forecast**

Agay dekhtay hain, silver ke prices ka rukh maamoolan maashiyati reports aur siyasi tensions ki aik nazakat ka mawaqif par mabni hai. Ek bullish trend ke liye zaroori hai ke silver ko kamzor maashiyati data ya barhaye gaye siyasi risks jese catalysis milen, jo isay safe haven ki tor par izafa karain. Ulta, mazboot maashiyati data ya tensions mein kami bearish dabao dal sakti hai. Technically speaking, silver prices ne aath haftay ki kamzori ka imtehan acha diya, jiski wajah se do hafton ka nuksan khatam hua.

Mehwar reports mein se China ka Q4 GDP aur U.S. Retail Sales ka tawun hai, jo global maashiyati sehat aur consumer behavior ke baray mein ahem malumat faraham kar saktay hain.

Traders ko Middle East mein kisi bhi tabdeeliyon par bhi khayal rakhna chahiye, kyun ke barhaye gaye siyasi risks aam taur par silver ke liye safe-haven demand ko barha dete hain. In factors ki ham ahangi silver ki mazbooti ko ya usay kisi bhi taarufi rukh mein le jaane mein ahem role ada karenge ya nahi, yeh tay karenge.

Bitcoin-Spot ETF:

BTC ne Saturday ko 0.21% izafah hasil kiya, jo k kayi aur crypto market ko support kiya. Jumeraat ko 7.57% ki girawat ko teil karne k baad, BTC ne din $42,996 par khatam kiya. BTC ne briefly $43,500 par resistance test kiya, lekin session ko sub-$43,000 par khatam kiya.

Thursday ko, buying demand ne BTC ko $49,020 tak le gaya phir sub-$43,000 mein wapas aaya. Investors ne BTC-spot ETF Grayscale GBTC ke outflow numbers ka jawab diya, jo oversupply k baray mein pareshani paida kar raha tha. Analysts ne BTC aur crypto market ko BTC-spot ETFs ke launch se pehle overbought environment mein dekha. Investors ne profits lock kiye, jis se pullback hua.

Bitcoin Daily Technical Analysis

BTC ne 50-day aur 200-day EMAs k upar qaim rah kar bullish price signals bheje.BTC ka $42,968 resistance level cross karna, bulls ko $44,690 resistance level par le jaayega.Sunday ko, BTC-spot ETF se related discussions aur US lawmaker/SEC ki crypto scrutiny focal points bani rahegi.

Lekin, 50-day EMA k neeche girna, $39,861 support level ko khel mein laa sakta hai.
14-Daily RSI reading, 46.12, BTC ko $39,861 support level par jaane se pehle oversold territory mein dikhata hai.

Ethereum Analysis

Daily Forecast!

ETH ne 50-day aur 200-day EMAs k bohat oopar reh kar bullish price signals confirm kiye.ETH ka $2,600 handle tak move, $2,650 resistance level aur Friday ki high $2,717 ko khel mein laa sakta hai.

Investors ko ETH-spot ETF se related updates ko continue karna chahiye.Lekin, $2,500 handle se girna, bears ko $2,457 support level par le jaayega.

14-period Daily RSI at 62.88, ETH ko $2,650 resistance level tak le jaane se pehle overbought territory mein dikhata hai.

NG Forecast!

Natural gas futures ne ek aur haftay mein significant izafay ka samna kia, jo sangeen sardi aur jari rahe supply ke pareshaniyon ki wajah se hua. Traders is volatility mein, sab se zyada tawajju latest mosam ke taqweem aur gas storage ke darajat par hai.

**Mosam Se Chalne Wala Izafa**

Pichle haftay mein, natural gas futures ne $3.313 tak barh kar 14.52% izafa kiya, jo ke mainly subzero temperatures ki wajah se hua, jiski wajah se garmi ki taqat mein izafah hua.

Lower 48 states mein thandak ke asarat ka asar zahir tha, jisne natural gas ke cash prices mein izafa kiya. Mustaqil sardiyon ki ashad mumkin hai, jiski wajah se supply mein rukawat ka khatra hai, khaas kar un ilaqon mein jo intehai sardi ke liye zyada susceptible hain.



**EIA Report aur Supply Trends**

Energy Information Administration (EIA) ki haali report, jo darust karti hai ke natural gas storage levels five-year average se zyada hain, isse batati hai ke kafi reserve hai. Lekin, isne prices par upar ki taraf dabao mein koi kami nahi layi.

**Haftay ki Taqweem aur Market Sentiment**

Short term mein, natural gas market ka manzar bullish nazar aata hai. Agar haftay mein jo taqweem se zyada sardi ho, toh haftay ke shuruwat mein price mein izafa hone ki mumkinat hai. Dusri taraf, agar taqweem mein naram mosam ka ishara ho, toh traders pehle se hi mosam ke patterns mein tabdili ke liye tayyar hain, jiski wajah se price mein kam hone ka khatra hai.

Yeh halat dikhata hai ke market immediate weather changes ke liye kitni sensitive hai, jo yeh underscore karta hai ke weather markets jaldi shuru ho sakte hain aur jaldi khatam bhi ho sakte hain. Traders chaukanna hain, kisi bhi weather conditions ke signs ka jawab dene ke liye tayyar hain aur unke natural gas demand aur supply par hone wale asarat ka jawab dene ke liye.

GOLD FORECAST!

European session mein gold 2,053.97 ke aas-pass trade ho raha hai, 21 SMA ke upar aur 200 EMA ke upar. Jumma ko, US Treasury yields ne tezi se girne ka samna kiya, jisse gold ki taqat ko faida hua. Is wajah se gold ne apne bearish trend channel ko todne ke liye mazboot bullish momentum hasil kiya, jo December 26 se ban raha tha.

Pichle haftay mein dekha gaya ki gold ne tezi se downtrend channel ko tod diya aur jaldi se 6/8 Murray ke aas-pass 2,062 tak pahunch gaya. Us level se ek technical correction hua taki metal ko 2,040 ke resistance ko test karne ka mauka mila, jo ab mazboot support ban gaya hai.

Yeh dekhte hue ki gold ek bullish signal dikhata hai, ummeed hai ki price agle kuch ghanton mein 2,062 ke mazboot resistance zone tak pahunch sake, jo ek bechne ka signal mana ja sakta hai jiska target 2,036 hai.

Dusri taraf, agar gold tezi se 2,062 ko todta hai, toh wahaan se ek tezzi ke spurt ka intezaar kiya ja sakta hai aur yeh instrument 7/8 Murray tak 2,093 pahunch sakta hai.

Agar gold aane waale dino mein 2,036 (21 SMA) ke upar trade karta hai, toh koi bhi pullback ek mauka ban sakta hai ise khareedne ka, jiska target 2,062 aur 2,080 ho sakta hai.

GBP USD FORECAST!

, 1.2745 ke level ke upar consolidate kar raha hai, din ko 2 points se zyada ooncha band hua. Lekin, fluctuations ko dekhte hue, yeh mumkin hai ki aisa na ho, khaas kar aaj jo pair 5 points se kam lower open hua.

GBP/USD chart mein ek bullish scenario ke liye potential dikha raha hai. Yahaan key support aur resistance levels hain:

Resistance Levels:

1st resistance level 1.2789, "An Overlap resistance" ke roop mein pehchana gaya hai. Yeh level aage ke upward movement ke liye ek rukawat ka kaam kar sakta hai aur isey todne ke liye majboot buying pressure ki zarurat ho sakti hai.

2nd resistance level 1.2939, "Swing high resistance" ke roop mein label kiya gaya hai. Yeh price ke liye ek uncha hurdle hai aur yeh ek aisa area ho sakta hai jahan sellers sakriy ho sakte hain.

Support Levels:

1st support level 1.2615, "An Overlap support" ke roop mein ek important support zone hai. Yeh level buying interest provide kar sakta hai aur price ko aur girne se rok sakta hai.

2nd support level 1.2502, bhi "An Overlap support" ke roop mein label kiya gaya hai. Yeh ek aur support zone hai jahan traders ko bullish positions enter karne ka vichar kar sakte hain.

SILVER FORECAST!

Silver ke market mein technical tajaweez
Silver barabar ke aas-paas ghoom rahi hai, aur is liye mujhe lagta hai ke kuch ziada nahi badla. Silver ne haftay ke pehle din ke trading session ke dauran zyadatar daramayi thi, jo ke America mein Martin Luther King Jr. ki chutti thi. Is liye, asal futures markets mein electronic trading buhat mamoolan mehdood hota hai. Is ke ilawa, hum 200 din EMA ko ooper bethay hain, aur yeh tabadla ek khaas had tak pesh karta hai. Yeh resistance na sirf technical hai, balkay yeh thora sa manshoorati bhi hai.

Ooper wahan, market 50 din EMA ko bhi test kar raha hai, is liye mujhe lagta hai ke waqt ke guzarne ke baad markets phir 50 din EMA ko paar karne aur $24.50 level tak pohanchne ki koshish karenge. Sab kuch barabar hone ke baad, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh ek market hai jahan hum aakhir mein dekhein ge ke khareed-dar log daam ko ooper daba kar keemat ko barhate hain, kyun ke hum overall consolidation area ke neeche aur upar hain, jo ke $22 level se le kar $26 level tak hai. Lekin, yeh zaroori nahi hai ke aap foran chandi mein daakhil ho, ya phir aapko bada position lena chahiye.

Chandi ki lihaz se darust hone ke liye, aapko buhat ihtiyaat baratni chahiye, lekin mein isay ek "buy on the dip" scenario samajhta hoon. Mein dheere dheere shuruwat karunga aur agar position aapke liye kaam karnay lagti hai, toh aap hamesha isay izafay kar saktay hain. Chandi har surat mein buhat shor macha rahi hai, aur abhi hamare paas bond yields, global growth aur geopolitical concerns ke baare mein buhat sawaal hain, is liye yeh koi bari baat nahi hai ke chandi itni messy rahi hai. Mein yeh kehta hoon ke yeh cheezon ka silsila jari rahega, is liye aapko kisi bhi waqt jald se jald bada position lenay se bachna chahiye. Yeh kehna yeh nahi hai ke aap khareeddar ya bechne wale nahi ban saktay, lekin aapko qeemat ka intezaar karne mein behtar hai.

Silver Daily Forecast!

Silver (XAG/USD), jis waqt mein 23.26 hai, 23.62 aur 23.63 ke 200-din aur 50-din moving averages ke neeche trading kar rahi hai, jo medium term mein ek bearish tend ko darust karti hai.

Keemat ne 23.55 ke minor resistance level ko paar kar liya hai, jo bullish momentum ki taraf ishara hai. Lekin, significant bullish trend confirmation ke liye 24.50 ke main resistance ko paar karna zaroori hai. 22.23 ke minor support level ko ek ahem marker maana jata hai, jo nichay ki taraf movement mein ek potential pivot ka kaam karta hai.



Aam taur par, chandi ke market ke liye jazbati taur par cautiously neutral stance hai, moving averages aur mojooda resistance level ke hawale se thora sa bearish bias hai.

GBP USD ANALYSIS!

American session mein, British pound 1.2726 ke aas-pass trade kar raha tha, 21 SMA ke neeche, aur 8/8 Murray ke upar. H4 chart par, British pound ne 1.2784 ke aas-pass ek strong resistance area tak pahuncha hai, jo ek majboot rok ban gaya hai. GBP/USD agle kuch ghanton mein apne giravat ko jari rakhega aur 1.2653 par sthit 200 EMA tak pahunch sakta hai.

Jab se January ke shuruwat se, British pound ne 200 EMA ke upar bounce kar rahe hain, ek uptrend channel banate hue, lekin thakan ke nishane dikhane lage hain. Agar British pound 1.2750 ke neeche trade kare, toh ham ek niche ki gati aur ant mein uptrend channel ke neeche 1.2645 tak pahunchne ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, agar British pound 1.2760 ke upar consolidate hota hai, toh ham pair ki sudhar ki ummeed kar sakte hain aur ye +1/8 Murray par sthit 1.2817 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Technically, instrument overbought signals de raha hai. Jab tak ye 1.2817 ke neeche trade karta hai, ise short term mein bechne ka signal maan sakte hain.

Market sentiment report dikhata hai ki 48.22% traders British pound ko khareed rahe hain. Agar yeh statistic badhe, toh pound sterling aane wale dino mein gir sakta hai.

Hamara trading plan agle kuch ghanton ke liye British pound ko 1.2748 ke neeche bechne ka hai, target 1.2695 aur 1.2653 par. Eagle indicator negative signal de raha hai aur hamare bearish strategy ko support karta hai.

BITCOIN FORECAST!

European session ke shuruwat mein, Bitcoin 42,654 ke aas-pass trade kar raha hai, 200 EMA ke neeche, aur 21 SMA ke neeche. H4 chart par dikhaya gaya hai ki Bitcoin January 8th se bane ek downtrend channel ke andar trade kar raha hai. Agar yeh agle kuch ghanton mein 43,200 ke neeche consolidate hota hai, toh ye apne bearish cycle ko dobara shuru kar sakta hai.

Agar Bitcoin downtrend channel ke top tak ya $45,000 ke aas-pass pahunchta hai aur ise tod nahi paata, toh ise bechne ka signal maan sakte hain, target 42,200, 41,500, aur 40,625 par.

Agar Bitcoin H4 chart par 43,800 ya 44,000 ke upar consolidate hota hai, toh ye apna bullish cycle dobara shuru kar sakta hai aur hum ise $45,000 ke psychological level tak pahunchne ki ummeed kar sakte hain. Ant mein, ye 6/8 Murray par 46,875 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Kyunki Bitcoin majboot bearish dabav ke neeche hai, hum ise agle kuch ghanton mein aur girne ki ummeed karte hain aur ise January 12 ke neeche 41,447 tak pahunchne ka anuman hai. Ant mein, price 2/8 Murray ke aas-pass 40,625 tak gir sakti hai.

January 14 ko, eagle indicator oversold zone tak pahuncha, jo Bitcoin ke recovery ko favor kar sakta hai. Agar token 41,500 ke upar consolidate hota hai, toh ham ek takneek rebound ki ummeed karte hain, jo BTC ko bullish strength aur kharidne ka avsar de sakti hai. Moolya 3/8 Murray ya 41,500 ke upar khareedne ka hosla ho sakta hai.

Caption

SILVER FORECAST!

Silver markets iss Tuesday mein mushkil mein thein, jab ke U.S. dollar ko mazeed taqat milti hui aur Treasury yields tez chadh rahi theen. Ab nazar Federal Reserve ke afraad ki taqreerat par hai, jahan traders rate cut ke mansoobon ke isharon ke liye pareshan hain. 08:45 GMT ke mutabiq, silver (XAG/USD) $23.07 par trade ho rahi hai, jo ke 0.64% ki girawat hai.

Dollar aur Treasury Yields Ka Asar:--

U.S. dollar index ne 10 dinon ki unchi ko chhoo liya, jisse silver ka charm doosre currency holders ke liye kamzor ho gaya. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields bhi 4% ke threshold ko paar kar gayi. Is dollar rally ki wajah se market Federal Reserve ke mumkin rate cuts par ghor kar rahi hai, ek data bhari haftay mein jo global central bank faislay ko mutharrik kar sakta hai.


Short-Term Forecast: Bearish Outlook:--

Mausam ka halat silver ke liye chhote-term mein bearish tasawwur ko paint karta hai. Central banks aggressive rate cuts se manaa karne ki mumkin sambhavana ke saath, ek mazboot dollar aur tez chadh rahe Treasury yields ke saath, silver prices ke liye mubalgha hawain ka ishara hai.

Daily Technical Outlook:---

Silver (XAG/USD) ki tahlil, jis waqt yeh $23.05 par hai, dikhata hai ke yeh pichle din band hone wale $23.22 se gir gaya hai. Is waqt yeh dono, 200-day aur 50-day moving averages ke neeche hai, jo $23.61 aur $23.63 hai, yeh bearish tendencies ko signal karta hai.
Chhota top, in moving averages ke saath, ne ek ahem chhat banayi hai, jo ke shuruati kharidari ki koshishon ko rad karne ki tawakkal hai. Lekin, is ilaqa ko par kar lena momentum ko oopar ki taraf kar sakta hai, jise mumkin hai ke tezi se chadhne ka nataija ho.

Is asset ka turant resistance $23.55 par hai, jise ke $24.50 par ek ziada mushkil rukawat hai. Is dauran, $22.23 par chhota support further girawat ke khilaf ek buffer pesh karta hai.Aam tor par, Silver ke liye market ka jazbaat abhi bearish hai, lekin is bada ceiling par qaboo hasil kar lena manzar ko kai had tak badal sakta hai.

BTC USD ANALYSIS!

Crypto Industry News:---

Digital asaasat aur platforms ki suraksha ek dabavpurna chinta bani hui hai. Haali mein, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ne ek suraksha ghuspaith ka samna kiya, lekin abhi tak koi bhi saakshay system ke adhik sankuchan ki nahi hai. Yeh ghatna crypto industry mein cyber suraksha ke abhi bhi samasyao ko darshata hai. SEC ki pratikriya, kanooni thaanedar ke saath sahayog mein, sanket deti hai ki majboot suraksha upaay aur sambhavit khatron ke samne turant karyavahi ki mahatva ko badhaava deti hai.

Technical Market Outlook!

BTC/USD jodi haali mein uljhan bhari bhavishy dekhti rahi hai. Ek naye varshik uchch ko chhoochuki, ek tez palat hone ka sanket mila, jo ek pravahila bazaar mahaul ko darshata hai. Yeh volatile bazaar vatavaran ek mahatva purna pratirodh mukhya sthal par ek Pin Bar palat pradeep se underline hota hai, jo bazaar ke dynamics mein badlaav ka sanket kar sakta hai.

Trend Analysis

Vartaman trend adhikanshat: bais hai, jaise ki moolya sankuchanon ke disha se spasht hota hai. Chitron par neeche ke unchon ka chitran aur iska anusaar yeh tathya hai ki ek bais momentam ka samay hai

BTC/USD jodi mahatva purna moving averages ke neeche vyapar ho rahi hai, jo bais trend ko siddh karta hai. In averages ke sthiti vartaman bazaar bhavana mein aur gehraee se samajh pradaan karti hai

Pin Bar palat ko dekhna ek mahatva purna pattern hai, kyun ki yeh ek sambhavit palat ya bade star par bazaar pratikriya ka sanket kar sakta hai. Hitaishi moolya kriyaon ka anuvad ke liye anushandhit ke liye ant mein dekha jaana chahiye

RSI, ek neutral sthiti mein, turant momentum ya trend ki thakavat nahi dikhata hai, jo bazaar mein ek consolidation ya nirnay ka samay ya anishchitata ka samay dikhata hai.




Intraday 1H Indicator Signals

Indicator aur moving average sanket ek mishrit bhavana ko prastut karte hain, jisme adhikansh ek Kharidne ka sanket dikhate hain. Hitaishi moolyon ke saath in sanketon ka sambandh mein saavdhaan anusaar samajhna avashyak hai.Bhavana scoreboard Kharidne ki bhavana ki or lean karti hai, haalaanki isko saavdhaanpurvak aur overall market sthiti aur takneek sanketon ke context mein vyakhya karna chahiye.