𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

EURUSD
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Hello, dosto kaise hain aap, EUR/USD chhate mausam ke teesre din ke trading mein, 1.0610 ke qareeb Asian hours mein tezi se gir raha hai. Aik ziada US dollar EUR/USD pair par dabao daal raha hai, shayad zyada US Treasury yields ke asar mein ho. Mazeed se, United States se behtar darja eftetaahat se sambandhit sale data ne umeedon ko barha diya ke Federal Reserve muddat tak interest rates ko buland rakhe ga. US dollar index apni gains ko 106.20 ke qareeb bhar raha hai, jabke likhne ka waqt hai US Treasury bond ke 2 saal aur 10 saal ke yields 4.92% aur 4.60% hain, mutaliqan. Baarhte hue Middle East ke saqafati tensions ne investors ko safe-haven U.S. dollar ki taraf mawajoo kar diya hai jab ke retail sales March mein 0.7% izafa kar gaye, jo ke market ki umeedon ko peechay chhod gaya. Pichli tajwez ko February mein 0.6% se 0.9% tak revise kiya gaya. Control group mein retail sales 1.1% izafa kar gaye, peechle 0.3% ke izafe ke muqable.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ke president Mary Daley ne haal hi mein kaha ke deflation par badi taraqqi hui hai, lekin abhi bhi mazeed safar tay karna hai. Unhon ne action lene se pehle yeh zaroori samjha ke inflation ka confidence ho. Daley ne ye bhi zikr kiya ke maeeshat solid taraqqi kar rahi hai, mazdoor market mazboot hai, aur inflation halat ke maqsood ke darjat se zyada hai. Euro ne monday ko girawat ki thi European Central Bank ke afkar ko lekar. ECB Governing Council ke member Gediminas Simkus ne kaha ke is saal teen rate cuts dekhne ke zyada se 50% ke chances hain, Reuters ke mutabiq. Mazeed se, ECB ke chief economist, Philip Lane ne highlight kiya ke ghar ki inflation par maashri ke measures ke muqable mein kafi kam taraqqi hui hai. Inflation ke qareebi mutaghayyir hoonay ke bawajood, inflation ke target tak umooman 2025 tak ikhtiyar ka samarthan hai.

Euro dollar pair ne haftawar chart par bullish trend ka ulta mazaq suna diya tha. Support level 1.07564 par test kiya gaya magar aakhirkar toota aur daman chhod diya jab qeemat support level 1.06057 ke qareeb band hui. Ye bearish muaamla mera pehla tajwez jahan tak umeed thi ke resistance 1.10328 ki taraf barhne ka ho, uske mutrafi tha. Is tabdeeli ke natije mein, anaye haftay ke liye, meri tawajju darmiyan ghata hokar support level 1.05001 par hai.

Euro ke mutaliq taaza Commitment of Traders (COT) report se zahir hai ke non-commercial traders ne April 2 se April 9 tak bohot se buy positions band ki aur zyada sell positions kholi hain. Is tabdeel hui positions se traders ke darmiyan bearish rujhan zahir hai, jo ke euro ke mazboot hone ki sambhavnao ko kam kar raha hai. Kul buy contracts ki tadaad ab tak sell contracts se zyada hai, jisse euro dollar pair ke neeche jane ki sambhavana aur zyada barhti hai.

Yooropee Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve ki hawalaat dekhte hue, ECB ke qarz darwazey par daaka hoga Federal Reserve se pehle. Ye monetory policy ki mukhalifat euro ke dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor honay ki sambhavna ko mazeed barha sakta hai. ECB ke rate cut ka intizaar aur Federal Reserve ki is harkat se jo ke rate cut pe razi nahi hai, ye sab euro ke dollar ke muqablay mein chhapatne ki umeed ko mazeed barha sakte hain.

Technical analysis aur COT reports ki roshni mein, logo ka ikhtilaf haftawar ke liye euro dollar pair mein kami ko le kar hai. Traders ko zyada tawajju se support level 1.06157 ka mutala karna chahiye, kyunki ye aik ahem level hai jo test kiya ja sakta hai aur shayad tor diya ja sakta hai. Kul taur par rujhan ye dikhata hai ke euro ko dollar ke muqablay bechna is waqt ke market mein ziada faidaymand ho sakta hai.

Akhri toor par, technical indicators aur COT reports ke jhurmat se euro dollar pair ke liye short term mein bearish bias ka andaza hota hai. ECB ki rate cut ki umeed, ECB aur Federal Reserve ke darmiyan monetory policy ki tafreeqiurja, aur traders ke positions mein tabdeeli, sab milake euro ke dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor hone ka manzar banate hain. Isi liye, traders ko euro dollar pair par short positions lena chahiye, jisme target support level 1.05001 hona chahiye. Mukhtalif support levels ka mutala aur central bank policies ke baare mein maloomat mein rehna aane wale dinon mein forex market ki dynamics mein guzarish karne ke liye ahem hai.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Lagta hai ke neeche ki senior cycle ko tod kar aur trend ko palatne ka koshish ho raha hai. Meri peechli statement mein, mein ne 1.0810 ke qareeb chalne ka mouqa zikar kiya tha, lekin is mukhya resistance level ko todna mukhtalif interest aur senior cycle ke palatne ka nateeja ho sakta hai. Kal, EURUSD pair ne mukhya resistance level ko kamyabi se tor diya hai aur ab mukhya resistance level 1.0930 ki taraf ja raha hai. Agar ye resistance ko paar kar lein, to ye neeche ki cycle se ooper ki cycle ki taraf ishaara kar dega. Pair ab palatne ki koshish kar raha hai jo kal ki baat chit mein ki gayi thi. Aaj, EURUSD pair ke liye abhi tak 1.0930 resistance tak pohanchne se pehle ek level ko paar karna hai, jo 1.0870 tak ki takneeki rok hai. Agar unhe is level ko todne mein nakami milti hai, to palatne aur 1.0810 ki taraf jaari giravat ke imkaanat barkarar rahenge. Is hafte ke ant tak is support ka tor bhi mumkin hai, jo pair ko 1.0730 tak aur neeche girane ka bawajood, yeh mumkin hai ke pair is hafte 1.0670 ke agle nishane tak na pohanchen. Dusri taraf, agar pair kal ke momentum ko qayam rakhta hai aur 1.0870 ki takneeki rok ko kamyabi se tor deta hai, to bohot zyada imkaanat hai ke ooper ki taraf ki manzil ko sirf 1.0930 tak nahi balki agle hafte 1.1057 tak jaari rakhega. Moujooda market ke daam 1.0843 hai. Momentum indicator, standard setting mein 14 ke doran, 100.94 ki soube ki taraf value dikhata hai. MACD technical indicator negative zone mein hai, jo ek bechnay ki trend ko dikhata hai. Stochastic indicator ye sujhaata hai ke trading tool overbought hai. Takneeki tajziya ke mutabiq, lagta hai ke trading tool ka daam 1.0700 ke daam tak neeche jaayega. Aap ko kamyaab trading ki kamna karta hu.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:


Meri aaj ki tajziya mukhtasir karne wale hain aur is par vichar karenge. EUR/USD market ke mojooda daam ka rawaya hai. Market abhi aapasi messages dikha raha hai, kuch indicators ko umeed hai ke market mein izafa hoga jabke doosre neeche ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Lekin abhi ke waqt par likhte hue, EUR/USD ke daam 1.0856 se 1.0872 ke darmiyan hain. Jab USD index aaj oopar ja raha hai, to EUR/USD baghair shak niche jaega. Haal mein, bears ne apni umeed ko barqarar rakha hai EUR/USD market mein. Agar hum EUR/USD ko dekhein to, abhi ke waqt par, wo negative roshni mein nazar aa raha hai. Mojudah mojooda force indicators yeh de rahe hain ke negative taqatain qaboo mein hain. Khaaskar, General Strength Index (RSI-14) ne neeche ki taraf ishara kiya hai aur yeh mazboot tor par 50 ke darje ke neeche hai. Ek sath, jab USD mein akhir mein izafa hua, to EUR/USD ke liye moving average convergence divergence (MACD-12,26,9) oscillator ne bari imtiaz banaya kyunke EUR/USD ke daam mein kami hui. Mere analysis ke saboot ke roop mein, daam ka barra trend neeche ki taraf hai, aur yeh 28 aur 44 moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai. Yeh resistance zones ko test kar sakta hai. EUR/USD ka ibtidaai resistance 1.0988 ke darje mein ho sakta hai. Agar aap ibtidaai resistance level ko tor dete hain to agle bullish maqsad 1.1209 ke darja hoga. 1.1209 ke upar band hone se market daam ko 1.1455 ke darja tak le ja sakta hai jo ke teesra resistance level hai. Doosri taraf, EUR/USD ka ibtidaai support 1.0702 ke darje mein mil sakta hai. Agar aap ibtidaai support level ko tor dete hain to agla negative maqsad 0.0505 ke darja hoga. 0.0505 ke neeche band hone se market daam ko 0.0394 ke darja tak le ja sakta hai jo ke teesra support level hai. Karobari faisle ke doran ehtiyaat baratne aur support aur resistance areas par tawajjo den, jahan market apni raftar badal sakta hai.

EUR/USD

Australian dollar (AUD) Australia ki qanooni currency hai aur ise Reserve Bank of Australia jari karta hai. Isay aksar aik commodity currency kaha jata hai Australia ki ahem commodities jaise ke loha, coal, aur sonay ki wajah se. Australian economy ki karkardagi, khaaskar commodity sector mein, Australian dollar ki qeemat par ahem asar daalti hai. Doosri taraf, U.S. dollar (USD) United States ki qanooni currency hai aur ise Federal Reserve jari karta hai. U.S. dollar ko dunya ka reserve currency mana jata hai, aur iski qeemat ko factors jaise ke ma'ashiyati data, monetary policy decisions, aur saakhtmandi ke doran aik safe-haven currency ke tor par muta'alliq events asar daaltay hain. U.S. dollar ko aik safe-haven currency kaha jata hai, aur iski taqat aksar ma'ashiyati ghair-yaqeeni doron mein barhti hai. Australia mein berozgari ka dar kuch had tak behtar hone ka nishaan deta hai lekin ye aik pareshani hai. May 2023 tak, berozgari ka dar 3.6% par tha, jo ke pandemic ke dor ki unchi se kam hai lekin pehle pandemic ke daur ki mukhtalif maqamat se ooncha hai. Mazdoor market ka behtar hona nisbatan dheema raha hai, jis ka ba'is hawaai ke doran economy mein structural tabdeeliyon aur technology ke faide ka asar hai.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) aur berozgari ka dar do ahem ma'ashiyati indicators hain jo kisi mulk ki mukhtasir sehat mein izafi raushanai faraham karte hain. Haal hi mein Australia ne in maqamat par mukhtalif karkardagi ka samna kiya hai. 2022 mein, Australia ka asal GDP 3.8% se barh gaya, jo COVID-19 pandemic ke wajah se paidaishi tabahi ke baad aik numaindah behtareen auzar tha. Ye izafi raushanai bari had tak mazid domestic consumption, government spending, aur commodity exports mein behtar honay ka natija tha. Magar, ye ahem hai ke Australia ka GDP growth pehle se zyada volatility ka shikaar raha hai, jis ka asal wajah hai commodity exports par tawon aur global demand mein izafi tabdeeliyon ki wajah se.

Australia mein karobar ka itmenan darmiyan mein behtari se barh raha hai, aik mazid mazboot ma'ashiyati behtari aur behtar trading conditions ke saath. Ye umeed aam tor par mazboot commodity prices, infrastructure projects mein zyada investment, aur global demand mein ek izafi izafa se munfarid hai. Magar, global trade tensions aur saakhtmandi ke moamlaat ke ird gird umeed hai ke business sentiment par asar par sakta hai.

Hello, Dosto kaise hain, EUR/USD chhevan muthri session ke liye zameen khodta raha hai, Tuesday ke Asian hours mein kareeb 1.0610 ke qareeb trading kar raha hai. Ek zyada US dollar EUR/USD pair par dabaav daal raha hai, shayad zyada US Treasury yields ke asar mein. Is ke ilawa, United States se behtareen retail sales data ne umeedon ko buland kiya ke Federal Reserve interest rates ko lambi muddat tak buland rakhega. US dollar index apne faiday ko 106.20 ke qareeb barha raha hai, jahan tak likhne ke waqt 2 saal aur 10 saal ke US Treasury bonds par yields 4.92% aur 4.60% hai. Middle East mein barhte hue siyasi tensions ne investors ko safe-haven U.S. dollar ki taraf murattib kiya hai jab retail sales March mein 0.7% barhi, jo ke market ki umeedon ke 0.3% se aagay thi. Pichli reading February ki 0.6% se 0.9% ko revise kiya gaya tha. Retail sales control group mein 1.1% barhi, jab ke pehle 0.3% ki thi.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ke president Mary Daley ne haal hi mein kaha ke jab tak deflation par koi nateeja nahi nikalta, tab tak aage koi action nahi liya ja sakta. Unhone inflation ko track par dekhne ka itminan rakhne ki ahmiyat ko zaroorat samjhai. Daley ne ye bhi kaha ke maeeshat mein mazboot izafa ho raha hai, mazdoori ka market mazboot hai, aur inflation filhal nishana dar se zyada hai. Euro Monday ko European Central Bank ke afkar se mutasir hone ke baad gir gaya. ECB Governing Council ke member Gediminas Simkus ne kaha ke is saal zyada se zyada teen rate cuts hone ke 50% se zyada imkanat hain, Reuters ke mutabiq. Is ke ilawa, ECB ke chief economist, Philip Lane, ne highlight kiya ke domestic inflation par broader measures of inflation ke muqable mein kafi kam progress hua hai. Maeeshat ke maeeshat ke karib samay mein inflashion ke outlook mein mumkin hain, magar 2025 tak nishana dar inflashion ka tasalsul ke liye support mojud hai.

EUR/USD mein aapki zikar ki gai movement wakai dilchasp hai. Jab market aise level tak pahunch jati hai, to traders ke liye kafi saare mawadat aur intezar shamil ho jata hai. 1.06174 ke level par pahunchna market ke liye ek ahem juncture hai aur isse aage ki disha ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai. Is waqt, market mein itni tezi dekhne ka kuch karan ho sakte hain. Ek wajah ho sakti hai kisi mahatvapurn samachar ya ghatnayen, jaise ki arthik sankat, siyasat ya arthik dastaavezi ke maamle mein tabdiliyan. Ye prakriya, traders ko mauke par daakhil hone ka moka dene ke liye tezi se gati pradaan karti hai.
Dusri taraf, kisi badi financial institiution ya hedge fund ka bada trade bhi market mein aise tezi laa sakta hai. In sabhi maamle mein, traders ko nazuk hone ki avashyakta hoti hai aur sahi faislon par amal karne ke liye samajhdaari se kaam karna hota hai. Market mein aise level tak pahunchne par, technical analysis ka bhi mahatva badh jata hai. Support aur resistance levels ka pata lagana, trend lines ko samajhna aur indicators ka istemal karna traders ko aage ki disha mein madad karta hai. Is samay, traders ke liye samajhdari se kaam karna aur risk ko niyantrit rakhna zaroori hai. Jab market itna volatile hota hai, tab traders ko apne trading plan ko dhyaan mein rakhkar kaam karna chahiye aur jyada risk na lena chahiye.



Is level par pahunchne ke baad, traders ko market ka agla kadam samajhne ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Kya market is level ko tod kar neeche jaayega ya phir isse upar jaayega, yeh dekhne ke liye samay aane par hi pata chalega. Is beech, traders ko market ki gati ko gahraee se samajhna aur apne trade ka risk aur reward ko barabar mein rakhte hue faisle lena hoga. Ant mein, EUR/USD ke movement mein jo bhi ho, traders ko thahar kar aur samajhdari se kaam karne ki zaroorat hai. Har trade ek naya seekhne ka mauka hota hai aur sahi tarah se taiyar hone par, traders ko kamyabi hasil karne ke zyada mauke milte hain.

EURUSD dainik chart par, EURUSD pair ke keemat abhi tak 1.0800 ke level ke upar phir se naheen badh payi hai. Keemat ne kam hone ka bhi tajurba kiya, jab tak ke yeh 1.0700 ke level tak pahunch gaya. Waqtan-fa-waqt, lag raha hai ke keemat 1.0727 ke support ke aas paas jam ho gayi hai aur keemat mein kisi bhi tezi ya mandi ki koi zyada raftar nahi hai. Bearish trend ka rukh bahut mazboot hai jab EMA 50 ne SMA 200 ko paar kar liya, jo ke ek death cross signal ko janam diya. Yeh darshata hai ke bechnay walay sare-asar ab tak EURUSD pair ke trading ka dhancha niyantrak karte hain.

Mukhalif trend ka honay ke bawajood, kuch isharon hain ke neeche ki raftar kam ho sakti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke volume histogram ki quantity kam hoti ja rahi hai aur zero level ke qareeb pahunch rahi hai. Yeh darshata hai ke neeche ki raftar mein kami ki sambhavna hai. Mumkin hai ke kharidne wale keemat ko phir se upar le jane ki koshish karenge, 1.0756 ya EMA 50 ke qareeb. Phir bhi, Stochastic indicator ne overbought zone ke neeche guzar gaya hai, jo ke darshata hai ke neeche ki raftar dobara jari ho sakti hai.

Iss an-ish-an hone wale bazar ke mahol mein, traders ko ehtraam se kaam lena chahiye. Kisi bhi potential bullish movement ko mazboot signals se tasdeeq karna zaroori hai trading faislon se pehle. 1.0700 ke support level majboor hai, aur agar yeh level toot jaye to EURUSD pair mein mazeed neeche jaane ki sambhavna hai.

Tehqiqat ke lihaz se, takniki indicators bazar ki haalat mein maqool wajihat faraham karte hain. EMA 50 ne SMA 200 ke neeche guzar jana bara ehem bearish signal hai, jo ke neeche ki raftar ki mumkinri ka ishara deta hai. AO indicator ki kam hone wali volume histogram mein se, neeche ki raftar mein kamzori ki nishani hai, jabke Stochastic indicator ke overbought zone ke neeche hone se, neeche ki raftar dobara shuru hone ki sambhavna hai.

Aam tor par, agar chand mukhtalif bullish pressure ho, tou bazar ke moatabiq jazbat EURUSD pair ke liye bearish hain. Traders ko ehem levels ko nigaah mein rakhta chahiye aur kisi bhi wazeh signals ya tasdeeq ke intezar mein trading faislon se pehle sajjda karna chahiye. 1.0700 ke support level ka nazaara zaruri hai, kyunke agar yeh level toot jaye to EURUSD pair mein mazeed neeche ka qadam uthaya ja sakta hai. Munsifn taqreeban ayenda rukawat ki disha par aur batae gaye indicators par nazar rakhain trading ke rukh ka mazeed tafsir ke liye.

Beshak! Yahan mojood hai dobara likha gaya safha:

Sabhi EURUSD currency pair ke traders ko salam. Is currency pair ka volatility abhi shuruat mein hai, lekin humein 1.06348 ke level ke upar ek majboot support mil chuka hai. Iske adhaar par, main 1.06586 ke price par ek long position kholunga. Profit targets set karne ke liye kuch levels consider kar sakte hain. Pehla target level 1.06880 hai aur doosra target level 1.07411 hai. Pehle target level ko paar karne ke baad aur ek temporary correction ke baad bhi, long positions add karte rahna surakshit hai. Zaroori hai ki is maamle mein target ek swayam 1.07411 level par hi rehna chahiye.

EURUSD currency pair trading enthusiasts ke liye bade roshniyon wala hai. Is currency pair ka dynamic nature aur achhe price movements ki potential traders ke liye kafi, roshan hai. Support levels ko nazdeek se monitor karke, traders apne entry aur exit points ka samay rakh sakte hain taaki unhe apne profit potential ko optimize karne aur risk ko kam karne mein madad mil sake. Market ki fluctuations ka jawab dene ke liye agile aur adaptability banaaye rakhna zaroori hai taaki emerging opportunities ka fayda uthaya ja sake.

Jab hum EURUSD currency pair ki trading ke complexities mein gehriye, toh samajhna zaroori hai ki technical analysis tools aur indicators ka upyog decision-making capabilities ko majboot karne mein madad karta hai. Khaas taur par, key support aur resistance levels, trend patterns, aur momentum indicators ke pehchaan karke, traders potential price movements ke baare mein mahatvapurn insights pa sakte hain aur effective trading strategies bana sakte hain. Technical analysis ko market sentiment aur fundamental factors ke saath milakar istemal karne se market dynamics ke liye ek vyapak outlook mil sakta hai aur informed trading decisions liya ja sakte hain.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD ne pichle kuch mahinon mein apni pasandida harkat phir se dikhayi – kam volatility. Magar yaad rakhein ke downtrend jaari hai, teen dinon ke girawat ke baad bullish correction kaafi kamzor tha, aur din khatam hone tak, euro ki keemat aur bhi kam hui. Is tarah, market ne pichle haftay ki kami ke baad bhi kisi rukawat ka samna nahi kiya aur dobara euro ko bechna shuru kiya.

Hamari raay mein, mojooda harkat bilkul mantegi hai. Ham ne baar baar zikr kiya tha ke euro ko abhi barhne ke koi bunyadi aasar nahi hain. Aur US maahangai riport ke baad (jo June mein Federal Reserve ki dar ko khatam karti hai), dollar ke barhne ke aur bhi wajood hain. Uss waqt European Central Bank bhi June mein darjat kam kar sakta hai, bank ke monetary committee ke afraad is ke bare mein openly baat kar rahe hain. Is tarah, hum euro mein mazeed girawat ka intezar karte hain.

Kal, US retail sales ki riport expectations se oopar aayi, isliye dollar ko macroeconomic support mila. Sirf ek trading signal 5-minute timeframe par paida hua. US trading session ke opening se pehle, pair ne 1.0668 ke level se 2 points ke error ke saath rebound kiya, uske baad yeh lagbhag 1.0618 ke level tak gir gaya. Pair is level tak nahi pohancha, lekin keemat uske qareeb reh gayi thi lagbhag poori raat ke liye. Isliye, newcomers ko manually short position band karne ke liye kafi waqt mila. Is se faida lagbhag 25 pips tha. Jis total volatility sirf 40 pips thi, yeh ek behtareen nateeja hai.

Trading tips on Tuesday: Hourly chart par downtrend jaari hai. Hum yeh maante hain ke euro girte jaari rahega, kyunki woh ab bhi zyada uncha hai, aur general trend neeche ki taraf hai. Haal hi ke macro data ne US dollar ko poori support di hai. Funda background yeh darshata hai ke ECB agle mulaqat mein darjat kam karne ka aaghaz karega, jabke Fed ka faisla ghair yaqeeni hai.

Aaj, pair ne 1.0618 ke level ko tor diya hai, aur bullish correction kamzor sabit hui hai. Isliye, newcomers dobara short positions ka intezar kar sakte hain, maqsad 1.0568 ka ho sakta hai.

5M chart par key levels 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981 hain. European Union mein, ZEW Institute ke economic sentiment indices euro area ke liye traders ko impetus faraham kar sakti hain. United States mein, building permits, housing starts, aur industrial production ki riportain jaari ki jayengi. Hum inhein secondary reports samajhte hain aur inka strong market reaction ka intezar nahi karte hain.

EUR/USD ne pichle kuch mahinon mein apne pasandida movement style mein wapas lauta - kam volatility. Magar, yaad rakhen ke downtrend jaari hai, teen din ke ghate ke baad bullish correction kaafi kamzor tha, aur din ke end tak euro ki keemat aur bhi gir gayi. Is tarah, market ne pichhle haftay ke girao ke baad rukawat bhi nahi dali aur shukrwaar ko phir se euro ko bechna shuru kiya.

Hamari raay mein, mojooda movement bilkul mantqi hai. Ham ne bar bar kaha hai ke euro ko abhi uchharna ke koi buniyaadi asool nahi hain. Aur US ke inflation report ke baad (jo June mein Federal Reserve ke rate cut ki umeedon ko khatam kar deta hai), dollar ko aur bhi zyada uchharna ka sabab mil gaya hai. Usi waqt, European Central Bank June mein rates ko kam kar sakta hai, kyun ke bank ke monetary committee ke afraad is ke bare mein khule aam baat kar rahe hain. Is liye, hum euro mein mazeed girao ka intezar karte hain. Kal, US retail sales report expectations se upar aayi, is liye dollar ko macroeconomic sahara mila. 5-minute timeframe par sirf aik trading signal bana. US trading session ke opening se pehle, jodi ne 1.0668 ke level se 2 points ke ghalti ke sath rebound kiya, us ke baad almost 1.0618 ke level tak gir gayi. Jodi ne is level tak nahi pohancha, lekin price almost raat ke tamam waqt ke liye is ke qareeb reh gayi. Is liye, naye logon ko manfi position ko haath se band karne ke liye kafi waqt mila. Is se munafa lagbhag 25 pips tha. Jiski total volatility sirf 40 pips se thodi zyada thi, yeh aik shandar nateeja hai.

Tuesday ke liye trading tips: Ghanto chart par, downtrend jaari hai. Hamara yeh manna hai ke euro girna jari rakhegi, kyun ke yeh abhi bhi zyada uncha hai, aur mukhtalif trend downward hai. Haal hi ke macro data ne US dollar ko mukammal sahara diya hai. Bunyadi background yeh dikhata hai ke ECB agle meeting mein rates kam karne shuru karega, jab ke Fed ka faisla ghair yaqeeni hai.

Aaj, jodi ne 1.0618 ke level ko paar kiya hai, aur bullish correction chhota nikla. Is liye, naye log phir se short positions ko samajh sakte hain, 1.0568 ki taraf nishana rakhte hue.

5M chart par mukhya levels hain 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. European Union mein, ZEW Institute ke economic sentiment indices euro area ke liye traders ko impetus faraham kar sakte hain. United States mein, building permits, housing starts, aur industrial production ke reports jari kiye jayenge. Hum inhein as secondry reports samajhte hain aur inhein par market ka mazboot reaction nahi expect karte.

EURUSD

EUR/USD apne pasandida movement style mein wapas chala gaya hai jo pichle kuch mahinon mein hua tha - kam volatility. Magar, yaad rakhiye ke downtrend jari hai, teen din ki ghata ke baad bullish correction kaafi kamzor tha, aur din ke end tak, euro aur bhi kamzor ho gaya. Is tarah, market ne pichle haftay ki giravat ke baad rukawat tak nahi ki aur dobara euro ko bechna shuru kiya Monday ko. Hamari raaye ke mutabiq, halat bilkul mantuq hain. Humne bar bar kaha ke euro ko is waqt barhne ke koi asal bunyadi wajood nahi hai. Aur baad mein, US inflation report (jo June mein Federal Reserve ki daromadar daromadar tajweez ko khatam karta hai), dollar ke barhne ke aur bhi wajahat paida hui hain. Usi waqt, European Central Bank June mein rates ko kam kar sakti hai, kyunke bank ke monetary committee ke afraad is bare mein khule aam guftagu kar rahe hain. Isliye, hum euro mein mazeed giravat ka intezar karte hain. Kal, US retail sales report umeedon se zyada aayi, isliye dollar ko ma'ashi support mila. Sirf aik trading signal 5-minute timeframe par generate hua. US trading session ke khulne se pehle, pair ne 1.0668 ke level se rebound kiya ek ghalati ke sath, jis ke baad yeh lagbhag 1.0618 ke level tak gir gaya. Pair is level tak nahi pohancha, lekin keemat raat ke zyada tar waqt is ke qareeb rahi. Isliye, beginners ko haath se short position band karne ke liye kafi waqt mil gaya. Is se lagbhag 25 pips ka faida hua. Puri volatility ke saath, yeh ek shandar nateeja hai.

Tuesday ko trading ke mashwary: Hourly chart par, downtrend barqarar hai. Hum maante hain ke euro girte rahega, kyunke yeh ab bhi zyada buland hai, aur amm trend neeche ki taraf hai. Haal ki ma'ashi daleelain ne US dollar ko mukammal support diya hai. Bunyadi background yeh dikhata hai ke ECB agle meeting mein rates ko kam karne wala hai, jabke Fed ka qadam ghair yaqeeni hai. Aaj, pair girte rahega. Pair ne 1.0618 ke level ko tor diya hai, aur bullish correction kamzor saabit hua hai. Isliye, beginners dobara short positions ka tajziya kar sakte hain, 1.0568 tak nishana rakhte hue. 5M chart par ahem levels hain 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. European Union mein, ZEW Institute ke economic sentiment indices euro area ke liye traders ko impetus faraham kar sakti hain. United States mein, reports building permits, housing starts, aur industrial production par jari ki jayengi. Hum inhein secondary reports samajhte hain aur in par mazboot market reaction ka intezar nahi karte.

EURUSD


EURUSD pair par jo bearish trend chal raha hai, woh ab bhi bohot mazboot hai. Ye price movement se dekha ja sakta hai jo ke kisi bhi tor par 50 EMA tak nahi pohancha jab woh upar ki taraf correction hua. Haqeeqat mein, price ne 1.0631 ke support ko bhi guzar gaya hai aur beshak price pattern structure lower low - lower high shirakat mein jaari hai. Nazdeek tarin resistance abhi SBR 1.0703 area mein hai. Agar ek impulsive upward correction phase hota hai to price ko SBR area tak pohnchnay ka moqa hai magar is se pehle ye sabit karna zaroori hai ke EMA 50 ya buland prices 1.0665 se guzar jayein.

Pichle haftay ke shuru mein, US Dollar currency ke liye mazbooti ke imkaanat reporton ki taraf mudakhil hue thay, jin mein Core Retail Sales m/m data jo ke 0.5% se 1.1% tak aur Retail Sales m/m 0.4% se 0.7% tak badh gaye. Price movement jo ke pehle upar ki taraf correction mein tha lagbhag 1.0670 range tak lagta hai ruka, phir price ne neeche chalang lagayi jab tak woh support ko guzar gaya. Aaj giravat jaari hai aur jab yeh 1.0607 range mein hai, to ye 1.0600 level ke qareeb aa raha hai. Masalan, agar hareef dollar ke khareedari amal kamzor nahi hoti, to phir price movements ke neeche 1.0600 level ki taraf tafteesh ki ja sakti hai.

Magar, Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator se bullish divergence reversal signal hai. Halankeh momentum ab bhi ek downtrend dikhata hai, lekin histogram volume level 0 ke neeche kam ho gaya hai aur yeh girtay prices ke volume ke saath barabar nahi hai. Price direction ka aik reversal ho sakta hai support par 1.0631 ke upar, lekin ye ye nahi ke trend direction badal jayega. Stochastic indicator ke parameters taqreeban oversold zone tak phir se pohnch rahay hain, iska matlab hai ke downward rally jald khatam ho sakti hai aur ek upward correction phase shuru ho raha hai.

Position entry setup:

Mere khayal mein, bearish trend ki darmiyan mein bullish divergence reversal signal ke mutabiq trading options zyada umeed hai jismein BUY position rakhni chahiye. Kyunke giravat bohot dair se jaari hai aur koi sahi upward correction nahi hui hai. Position entry point 1.0600 level ke aas paas hai jab rejection ho ya phir prices ko 1.0631 ke support ke upar band hone ka intezaar karna hai. Stochastic indicator parameter phir se oversold zone at level 20 - 10 cross karne ke baad confirmation hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka histogram waqtan-fa-waqtan nazar andaz kiya ja sakta hai kyunke ye bullish divergence dikhata hai. SBR 1.0703 area take profit ke tor par muntakhib hai aur stop loss lagbhag 30 pips neeche 1.0600 level par hai.

Market ke shirakat daron ko Federal Reserve ke tajaweezat par chokas nazar rakhte hain, kyun ke kisi bhi ishara par qarz ki daro se mutaliq trends asar andaz ho saktay hain jo currency ke values per badi tor per asar daal sakta hai. Isi tarah, European Central Bank ki policy faisley bazaar ke dynamics per bade asar rakhte hain.
Federal Reserve ke actions aur statements investors ke liye ahem hain, kyun ke ye mustaqbil ke monetary policy ki rahnumai dete hain. Kisi bhi ishara par potential qarz ki daro mein izafa ya kami currency markets mein shadeed harkat ko trigger kar sakti hai. Misal ke taur per, agar Fed inflationary pressures ko khatam karne ke liye qarz ki daro ko barhane ke zariye monetary policy ko tang karne ka ishara deta hai, to US dollar mazeed mazboot ho sakta hai jab ke investors dollar-denominated assets par zyada munafa talab karte hain. Ulta agar Fed economic growth ko barhane ke liye interest rates ko kam karne ki taraf ishara deta hai, to dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai jab ke investors higher-yielding currencies ki taraf rukh kar sakte hain.

Is ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) euro ke qiymat ko apni policy faisley ke zariye murattab rakhta hai. Fed ke mutabiq, ECB ke announcements interest rates, quantitative easing programs, ya forward guidance ke mutalliq currency markets per gehra asar daal sakte hain. Maslan, agar ECB Eurozone economy ko support karne ke liye mazeed monetary stimulus measures ke ishara deta hai, to euro doosri currencies ke mukable mein depreciate ho sakta hai ​​​​​​kyun ke increased money supply aur potential interest rate cuts ke umeed hoti hai. Dosri taraf, agar ECB apni asset purchase programs ko taper karne ya interest rates ko barhane ka irada zahir karta hai, to euro mazboot ho sakta hai jab ke investors tight monetary policy aur euro-denominated investments par zyada munafa talab karte hain.

Interest rate decisions ke ilawa, market participants central bank communication ko bhi nazdeek se mutalah karte hain taake economic outlook, inflation expectations, aur policy normalization trajectories ke isharon ko samajh sakein. Market ke expectations se kisi bhi alag rawayati ko currency values mein tezi se aur shadeed harkat mein badalne ka sabab bana sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, central bank policies exchange rates ke sath sath mazeed financial markets, including equities, bonds, aur commodities ko bhi asar daalte hain, jab ke investors apne portfolios ko monetary policy stance ke tabdeel hone ke jawab mein adjust karte hain.

Aam tor per, market participants major central banks, jaise ke Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke actions aur communications par mukhtasir rehte hain, kyun ke ye currency valuations aur overall market sentiment ko shakhsiyat dene mein ahem kirdar ada karte hain.

Ek investor ke jazbat ke aik pehchaan bayaan karte hain jang ka darmiyaan Israil aur Iran ke darmiyaan, tail ke daamo ka jo ke ghate jaari hain, is liye zyadatar investors ko yakeen nahi hai ke mojooda halaat ek puray war mein tabdeel honge. Asian session ke doran halki taqat milne ke baad, qeematien chaar ghanton ke chart par mojooda trading range ke neeche laut sakti hain. Agar qeematien surkhi harkat ke moving average se oopar chali jayein, toh ooper ki harkat ke zyada chances hain ke 1.0615 resistance level tak pohnche, aur yeh ab nazar mein sab se zyada mumkin scenario lagta hai. Ke EUR/USD ki qeematien 1.0615 resistance level ke oopar jaayengi ya nahi, yeh ek khula sawal hai, lekin agar koi breakdown hota hai, toh main upar ka intizaar karoonga 1.0722 resistance level tak; 1.0684 se bounce hone se, ek baray mawad mein tanazuli ke chances hain bas is level ke neeche. Ek chhotay time frame mein, qeemat ne 133-period moving average ke oopar band hokar, mool trend mein ek potential correction dikhata hai. Qeemat ka intizaar hai ke level 1.0635 ke neeche mil jaaye, us ke baad bechne ke moqaat ko ghor kiya ja sakta hai.



Haan, Middle East mein crisis barhane se US dollar ki demand barh sakti hai, lekin is waqt bazaar ne Iran ke hamle par kaafi rehnumai ki hai. Mehdood reaction ke sabab ho sakte hain strike ka kam asar aur baad mein Iranian mission ki UN par bayanat jo ke kehte hain ke masla "hal kiya ja sakta hai" aur yeh aik bara conflict ka khatra kam kar deta hai.