"Economic Recession" kia hai? Iski Reasons aur Asarat kia hote hen?
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    "Economic Recession" kia hai? Iski Reasons aur Asarat kia hote hen?
    Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

    Recession


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    Hamesha Economic development aik cycle mein chalti hai – ek boom (tezzi) hamesha ek downtrend (mandi) ke sath aati hai. Aisi mandi ko recession kehte hain, jo mukhtalif tanasub aur gehrayi ke sath dobara hoti hai. Kabhi-kabhi recessions kam ya kuch zyada serious iqtisadi pareshani ke saath hoti hain, lekin kabhi-kabhi yeh mukhtalif miqdar aur gehrayi ke crises ko janm deti hain.
    Aam taur par, ek recession ko aise haalat mein define kiya jata hai jisme iqtisadi growth mein rok (aam tor par zero ke qareeb) aur zyadatar financial indicators mein girawat hoti hai.
    Yeh criteria ke liye ki recession kya hoti hai, har mumalik mein thoda sa farq ho sakta hai. For example, U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research isey thoda sa tafseel se define karta hai: "ek recession ek aisi haalat hai jisme puri iqtisadi gatividhi mein girawat hoti hai, jo ke kai mahinon tak rehti hai, aur aam tor par GDP, haqiqi aamdani, rozgar, sanati utpadan, aur farokht ko mutasir karti hai."
    Agar girawat khaas taur par gehri ya lambi rahi ho, to isey recession nahi, balki full-blown crisis kaha jata hai. Har surat mein, consumers ko recessions se khaas nuksan hota hai. Be rozgar ho jata hai, log kam khareedari karte hain, aur karobar ko kam ya band karne par majboor hote hain.
    Maeeshi danayi ko recessions nahi, balki lambi thandein depressions kaha jata hai. Depression ka lafz logon ko dara deta hai, isliye yeh 1930s mein Great Depression ke dauran akhri baar istemal hua tha.
    U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research ka khayal hai ki chhote arse ki recessions ko sahi tarah se pehchanna mushkil hai. Recessions ke muddon ko saaf taur par define karna mumkin nahi hai, lekin iqtisadi taraqqi ke unche aur neeche ko define karna mumkin hai. Ek recession ek period ke baad aati hai jab iqtisadi raftaar ek peak tak tezi se pahunchti hai aur woh khatam hoti hai jab iqtisad ek low tak girta hai.
    Rasmi data recession ke baray mein turant iqtisadi raftaar kam hone ke baad nahi aata, balki chhe mahine se ek saal baad. Yeh waqt macroeconomic indicators ko tajziya karne ke liye chahiye hota hai: gross domestic product, rozgar, makan tameeri rates, aur doosre.
    U.S. mein ek economic slowdown ka ausat duration 17.5 months hai. Great Depression 43 months tak chali. World War II ke baad se, har 5.5 saal mein ek recession hoti hai.
    Recessions aksar stock market indices mein massive decline ke saath aati hain, jo sirf rozgar ko aur bhi bura banati hai - yeh ek circle ko complete karta hai. Iske alawa, aam tor par ek desh ki economy doosre deshon ki economy par depend karti hai, isliye ek desh ya doosre mein iqtisadi girawat hone ka khatra bahut zyada hota hai aur yeh duniya ke stock exchanges par crash ka karan ban sakta hai.
    Lekin stagnation se recession mein kya farq hai? Stagnation aksar ek recession se pehle hoti hai. Stagnation ke doran, economy grow nahi hoti, lekin yeh dheere dheere slow bhi nahi hoti. Yani ke macroeconomic indicators pehle ke periods ke values ke kareeb hote hain.
    Aam taur par stagnation ko internal economic causes ke saath joda jata hai. For example, capital outflows aur kam investments industry ki grow hone se rok rahe hain. Russia ki economy natural resources ke exports par focus karta hai, isliye inke prices mein girawat bhi stagnation ka karan ban sakti hai.

    Recession Ka Kya Reason Hai

    Woh reasons jo ek economic girawat ko janm dete hain, har state ke liye individual hote hain. Sabse aam wale reasons mein shamil hain:
    • Mulk ki natural resources ke export par depend karna: Isse woh ek "iqtisadi bandi" ban jata hai jo trade hone wale raw materials ke daamon par mabni hota hai. Kisi tez neeche ki taraf ki dhakka lagne par yeh ek recession mein mubtala ho sakta hai.
    • Doosre mumalik mein maeeshi crisis: Duniya ke sabse bade iqtisadiyat U.S. aur China hain. In states mein hone wale masail pure world mein asar andaz hote hain. Sab log 2007-2008 mein America mein mortgage crisis ko yaad karte hain, jo ki sabhi mumalik ke stock indices ko gira diya tha.
    • Fauji tanazaat: Jang mulkou ki iqtisadiyat par bhari asar daalti hai. Isliye keh diya jata hai ke isme koi bhi jeetne wala nahi hota. Infrastructure tabah ho jati hai, production ruk jati hai, aur bhaagidar mumalik ki taraf bhagte hain. Wapas tabaahi door hone mein das saalon tak lag sakti hai. Great Depression ka ek karan First World War kehlaya gaya tha. Military conflicts ke baad recessions saalon tak chalti hain.
    • Qudrati aafat, insani banayi gayi aafat, wabaayi aur doosre force majeure halat: Humen door jaane ki zarurat nahi hai masalon ki talash mein. COVID-19 waba ne 2020 ke shuru mein petrol products ki demand ko tezi se giraya. Log kam bahar nikal rahe the aur transport ka kam istemal kar rahe the, jiski wajah se petrol ke prices record gir gaye, jise asar kiya export karte hue mumalik par.
    • Scientific Aur Technological Progress: Kabhi-kabhi aise masoom factors bhi ek iqtisadi recession ka sabab ban sakte hain. Jab naye technologies market ko active taur par conquer kar rahe hote hain, to mojooda equipment obsolete aur baywajah ho jata hai. Purani technology se banayi gayi products ki demand kam ho jati hai. Sabhi manufacturers ko ek short period ke andar modernize karne ka mauka nahi milta. Kai ko band karna padta hai. Industry mein active automation bhi hai. Machines manual labor ko replace kar rahe hain, jiski wajah se berozgari badh jati hai.
    • International Situations Ka Asar: Duniya ke sabse bade iqtisadiyat China aur United States hain. Production aur consumption mein in dono mumalik mein jo giraawat hoti hai, woh pure duniya mein unke saathi mumalik par asar andaz hoti hai. A recession ke doran international trade kam ho jata hai kyun ki exports aur imports ghat jate hain. Supply chains bhi bigad jati hain - jiski wajah se alag-alag mumalik mein production ruk jati hai.
    • Economic Shock: Recessions aksar economy ke aftershocks hote hain. 2019 mein kuch aise shocks hue the. Pehle, U.S. aur China ke beech trade war badh gaya: dono mumalik ne imports par tariffs badhaaye, aur U.S. ne China ko currency manipulator bhi kaha. 2020 ke shuru mein, U.S. ne China ko manipulators ki list se hata diya.
      Trade wars ke sath-sath, U.S. aur China high-tech sector mein supremacy ke liye bhi lade. U.S. ne announce kiya ki Chinese company Huawei ne unke national security ko dhamkitha. December 2019 mein China mein coronavirus pandemic ka shuru hona ke baad, petroleum products ki demand tezi se gir gayi, log kam transportation use kar rahe the. Iske natije mein oil prices gir gaye, jo duniya ke markets ke liye bada jhatka tha.
    • Financial Market Problems: Kuch recessions financial market problems ke saath shuru hoti hain, jaise credit booms. 2007 ka global financial crisis United States mein mortgage boom se shuru hua tha. Borrowers se income proof nahi manga gaya tha, aur loans kisi ko bhi mil rahe the jo chahata tha. Real estate prices badh gayi. Log ummid karte the ki isse paisa kamaya ja sakta hai, isliye woh ek saath kai ghar kharidte the. Private investment banks bhi paisa kamana chahte the - unhone mortgage bonds aur risky derivatives nikale.
      Lekin 2006 mein, real estate prices girne lag gayi aur kai borrowers ne pay karna band kar diya. United States mein high-risk mortgages ki bauchaar ne bank failures aur lambi global financial crisis ko janm diya. Recession ke duration ko kam karna aur uske negative asarat ko minimize karne ke liye, sarkarein mukhtalif taur par istemal karti hain: isme quantitative easing, state interest rate ke size mein tabdilat, financial transactions par nigrani, aur exporters ko support shamil hain.


    Recession Ke Types


    Recession ek desh ki puri economy ko mutasir karti hai. Agar GDP tezi se aur tezi se girne ke baad tezi se recover ho jata hai, to ise analysts V-recession kehte hain. Agar GDP tezi se girta hai lekin tezi se lambi aur dhimi recovery hoti hai, to ise U-recession kehte hain.
    • Manufacturing Recession: Yeh kisi khaas industry mein recession hoti hai. For example, sanati production mein girawat aur iske saath mein wholesale aur retail sales mein girawat. Jab maang kam hoti hai, to companies ke paas kuch load karne ke liye adhik capacity hoti hai. Iska natija hai ki manufacturing companies ke profits 30% se zyada gir sakte hain.
    • Financial Recession: Yeh economy ke financial sector mein slowdown hoti hai. Maeeshiadanon risks, liquidity risks, aur banking crisis ke imkaan ko economists analyze karte hain. For example, banking panic ke doran, bahut se log deposits le lete hain, bank liquidity kam ho jati hai, aur isse bank failures ka khatra badh jata hai.
    • Market Recession: Yeh ek general economic recession hoti hai, jo macroeconomic indicators mein girawat se define hoti hai. Rozgar aur haqiqi aamdani mein lambi girawat ke doran demand aur prices mein girawat hoti hai.


    Economy Mein Recession Ke Nishanat
    Agar real GDP do quarters tak gir raha hai, to economists ko lagta hai ki ek recession shuru ho gayi hai. Real GDP, mulk mein tayar kiye gaye sabhi maal aur khidmaton ki qeemat ko, tanasub ko madda karke, dikhata hai.
    GDP ke alawa, economists dusre indicators par focus karte hain, aise ke unemployment mein izafah aur haqiqi aamdani mein kam hone ke liye. Ek recession ka doosra mawafiqa definition hai ke yeh ek muddat hai jisme production, farokht, aamdani, aur rozgar mein numaya girawat hoti hai, jo aam taur par che mahine se lekar ek saal tak rehti hai.

    Recession Ki Examples

    Sabse ziada powerful aur analyze-shuda crisis Great Depression thi, jo ke 24 October 1929 ko United States mein shuru hui. Ye recession World War I ke baad lambi growth cycle ko khatam kiya.
    Great Depression pehli aisi iqtisadi crisis thi jo duniawide thi. Is se pehle, duniawide economy bilkul bhi nahi thi, aur alag-alag countries aur regions mein ye cycles out of sync hoti thin. Great Depression United States se Europe tak phail gayi, lekin aisa tha jaise woh Soviet Union se guzarti gayi. 1930s mein, Soviet Union ne pehle hi ek gehre taur par isolated aur non-market economy establish kar li thi.
    Ek kam dramatc lekin zyada muddat tak chali gayi recession ka textbook example 1990s mein Japan ki lost decade hai. 2008 mein, aandhi U.S. mortgage market se aayi. Ant mein, hum keh sakte hain ke coronavirus ke shuru ke 2020s mein hui sab se badi economic crisis bhi ek example hai. Is crisis ki ek khaas feature ye tha ke ye structural dimension tha. 2008-2009 ki crisis ke mukablay mein, coronavirus ne sab se zyada chhote entrepreneurs aur service sector ko sab se zyada nuksan pahunchaya: hairdressers, cab drivers, restaurateurs, aur hoteliers. Isliye governments ko economy ko support karne ke liye mukhtalif recipes develop karni padi.

    Recession Ke Asar

    Jo chezein recession ko shuru karti hain, wahi chezein aksar uske asar ban jati hain, jaise ke berozgari mein izafah. Aam taur par, consumption aur companies ki investment spending GDP decline se zyada gir jati hai.
    • Corporate Spending Mein Kami: Companies ko kharch kam karne aur investment ghatane par majboor kiya jata hai.
    • Berozgari Mein Izafah: Recession ke doran berozgari mein izafah hota hai. U.S. mein, 26 March se 23 April 2020 tak logon ne 25 million se zyada berozgari bharpai ki claims di. Isi doran 2019 mein, logon ne sirf ek million claims diye thay.
    • Demand Mein Girawat Aur Karza Mein Izafah: Mal aur services ki overall demand gir jati hai kyun ke logon ke paas paisa nahi hota. Karz, jaise ke utility bills, barh jate hain.
      Lekin ye kis tarah se awam ko mutasir karta hai? Recession ke doran logon ki haqiqi aamdani, yaani ke tax aur fees minus kar ke inflation ke hisab se, kam ho jati hai. Businesses ko jobs aur mazdoori kam karne par majboor kiya jata hai.
    • Stock Market Par Asar: Stock market mein sakht correction ya phir ek full-blown bear market hone ka khatra hota hai recession ke asar mein. Lekin ye ho sakta hai ke kuch sectors ke stocks gir jayein aur doosre sectors ke stocks wahi level par fluctuate rahein ya mazeed barh jayein.
      For example, coronavirus crisis ke doran, woh companies ke stocks badhe jinhein vaccine develop karne ya products trade karne mein fayda hua. Aur oil producers, airlines, aur cruise companies ke stocks gire.
    • Defaults Mein Izafah: Companies defaults karne lagte hain - woh bond coupons samay par ada nahi kar sakti ya phir woh bonds redeem bhi nahi kar sakti kyun ke unke paas paisa nahi hota.


    Recession ke doran, kai stocks aur bonds ki keemat girti hai, isliye investors ko apne portfolios ko expand ya change karne mein interest ho sakta hai. Lekin recession khatam hoti hai aur stock markets baad mein new highs achieve karte hain, isliye recession ke doran feverishly sell na karein.

    Recession Ke Liye Kaise Ready Rahen


    Jaisa ke humne pehle bhi kaha, recession ko pehle se predict karna mushkil hai. Isliye hamesha iske liye tayyar rahna chahiye. Stewed meat aur buckwheat stockpile karne ki zarurat nahi hai - kuch zyada mo suitable assets hain.
    Niche diye gaye tips recession mein nuksan se bachne aur apni nerves aur wallet ko bachane mein madad kar sakti hain.
    • Apne Karzat Se Chutkara Payein: Agar aapke paas baqiye loans hain, toh apni puri energy ko unko jaldi ada karne mein lagayein. Agar mumkin ho, toh apne loan ko behtar interest rate ke liye refinance karein.
    • Kharcha Mein Kami Karein: Agar aap apne expenses ka hisaab nahi rakhte hain, toh ab shuru karna shuru karein. Is tarah aap apne budget ke holes ko discover kar sakte hain. Be-mayyana aur bezarurat kharchon se bachen; har purchase ko soch samajh kar karein.
    • Emergency Fund Banaayein: Ye safety cushion hota hai. Ye aapki madad mushkil waqt mein karega aur future ke bare mein chinta kam karega.
    • Kai Independent Aamdani Sources Banayein: Recession ke doran, berozgari badhti hai, aur har kisi ko nokri se nikala ja sakta hai aur unka rozgar chala jaa sakta hai. Alag alag sources se budget ko feed karne ki opportunities dhundein. Aap koi nai profession seekh sakte hain aur part-time job start kar sakte hain.


    Recession ek aam economic cycle ka hissa hai. Isse darne ki zarurat nahi hai. Agar aaj aapki business tezi se badh rahi hai aur aapki income badh rahi hai, toh yeh koi bahut badi baat nahi hai. Is surpluses ko future ki care mein lagana chahiye, behooda kharch mein nahi.

    Recession Mein Investors Ke Liye Kya Hai

    Media aksar recession ko "girte aasman" ki tarah tasveer karti hai. Lekin recession ek normal economic cycle ka hissa hai. Aur bear market mein bhi paisa kamaya ja sakta hai.
    Recession mein paisa kamane ke liye koi universal advice nahi hoti, ye investor ke type pe depend karta hai: kuch log active taur par speculate karna shuru karte hain, kuch recession ko ek global sell-off samajhte hain aur decades ke liye kuchh kharidte hain, aur kuch sirf sab actions ko rok dete hain aur cycle badalne aur market reverse hone ka intezaar karte hain. Toh hum risks, opportunities, aur goals ko evaluate karte hain aur in dataon par amal karte hain.

    Investors Ko Recession Mein Kya Karna Chahiye

    Investors ko recession ke doran calm rehna chahiye. Yahaan kuch tips hain jo aapko crisis se kam nuksan ke saath bachne mein madad kar sakti hain.
    • Panic Mein Securities Na Bechein: Sirf is liye securities na bechein kyun ke sab log bech rahe hain. Apne investment plan ko follow karein aur sirf un securities ko bechein jo heavily hit industries mein hain aur jinhe jaldi recover hone ki ummed kam hai. Dusre shabdon mein, un securities ko bechein jinpe aap bharosa nahi karte, lekin pehle sochein ke aap bechne se mile hue paise ko kaise istemal karenge.
      For example, Warren Buffett ne March-April 2020 mein apne Berkshire Hathaway fund ke aath companies ke shares beche. Yeh the 4 airlines, ek oil and gas company, ek bank, ek financial company, aur ek medical company.
    • Zyada Tawajjuat Naa Dein: Agar aap khabron aur girte stock prices se pareshan hain, toh aapko kam tawajju deni chahiye. Is tarah aap kam pareshan honge aur emotion par buniyad par galat faislay lene ke chances kam honge.
    • Investments Badhayein: Recession aur stock market decline waqt hain stocks khareedne ke liye agar aap risk lena chahte hain. Toh aap woh securities khareed sakte hain jo pehle se mahangi lagti thi aur aap unhe sasti mein khareedna chahte the. For example, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, X5 Retail Group, aur Yandex sab ne February-March 2020 mein 30-50% gir gaye, lekin in companies ki stability aur potential mein koi kamzori nahi aayi.
    • Apne Portfolio Ko Pehle Hi Diversify Karein - Recession Se Pehle: Agar aapke portfolio mein alag alag companies aur countries ki stocks aur bonds hain, toh long-term investor recession se kam ya bilkul nuksan ke saath guzar sakta hai. Aur individual companies ki situation par depend na hone ke liye, aap cheaper ETFs aur exchange-traded equity mutual funds mein invest kar sakte hain. Ye individual stocks ko choose karna se zyada aasan hai aur aapke portfolio ko minimal effort ke saath diversify karne deta hai. Recession mein sab se zyada nuksan wale assets hain cyclicals companies aur highly leveraged assets.


    Cyclical companies economy ke haalat par zyada depend karte hain, isliye inmein invest karne ka best time hota hai jab economic growth ki umeed hoti hai. Aur jab economy achhi nahi chal rahi hoti, tab inke products ki demand kam hoti hai.
    For example, jab berozgari badhti hai, toh logon ke paas kam paisa hota hai, woh loans kam chukte hain, aur naya real estate aur cars kam khareedte hain. Is wajah se banks, developers, steelmakers, aur automakers ko nuksan hota hai.

    Recession Kitni Deep Ho Sakti Hai


    U.S. ki recession ki duration aur depth inflation ki stability par depend karti hai - aur yeh bhi ke Fed is par kitna tolerant hai. Market is par kis tarah se asar hota hai, isi par depend karta hai.
    World War II ke baad, economy ka average 2.5% girna hota hai recessions ke doran, berozgari 3.8% badhti hai, aur corporate profits 15% girti hain. Ek recession ki average duration 10 months hoti hai.
    Is waqt (agar hai) recession ki intensity ko predict karne ka ek tareeka hai historical parallels dekhna. Kai log current situation aur early 1980s ke beech ki similarities ko point karte hain jab Paul Volcker ke zariye Fed ne inflation ko dabaaya. Dusre log 1970s ke energy crisis ki similarities ko point karte hain jab oil aur food prices mein tezi se izafah hua - aur phir recession 1980s se zyada lambi aur gehri thi.
    Lekin koi bhi historical parallels limited utility rakhte hain, khaaskar structural change ke samne. Jaise ke Volcker ke zamane mein ab inflation utna high nahi hai - jo matlab hai ke Fed ko kam rates pe raise karna hoga. Aur economy ab energy intensive nahi hai jaise 1970s mein thi. 1973 mein, $1,000 GDP (inflation ke hisab se) banane ke liye ek barrel oil chahiye tha - 2019 mein, yeh figure 0.43 barrels tha.
    Iske alawa, real economy ab fairly stable lag rahi hai. U.S. mein household debt ab GDP ka 75% hai (global financial crisis ke eve par yeh figure 100% tha). Low rates ke wajah se annual debt payments ab disposable income ka 9% hain - kam se kam 1980 se.
    Companies bhi generally resilient dikh rahi hain: S&P ke mutabiq speculative-rated bonds ke default rate agle saal sirf 6% hoga (2009 mein yeh 12% tha). 2021 mein, U.S. companies ki total debt 27% yaani $250 billion giri - low rates ke wajah se woh liabilities ko more favorable terms par refinance kar sake.
    Financial system bhi behtar shape mein hai: bank reserves ab assets ka 13% banate hain (2007 mein yeh 8% tha). Real estate market, jise humne detail mein yahaan par likha, despite strong price growth mein bhi shortage mein hai.
    Aur ant mein, despite confidence decline, investors abhi bhi Fed ke inflation ko control karne ki capability mein believe karte hain - isliye markets regulator ke kisi bhi signals ka active response karte hain. Shayad yeh kafi hai takatwar inflation ko control karne ke liye aur ek chhote recession ka muqabla karne ke liye.

    Kya U.S. Mein Real Mein Recession Hai?

    U.S. ki iqtisadi growth ke liye preliminary estimate par aik bara debate chal raha hai. Is saal ke doosre quarter ke liye desh ki GDP mein 0.9% year-over-year decline hui, jise pehle quarter mein 1.6% decline ne follow kiya tha. Is tarah, is saal ke pehle half mein GDP 1.3% ghat gayi.
    Ye to technical recession ka kehlaaya ja sakta hai, jise media pasand karti hai zikar karne aur istemal karne mein. Lekin kai economists ye assurance dete hain ke ismein asal recession ke concepts ke bahut kam similarity hain aur abhi signs asal recession ke nahi hain.
    Democratic Party aur White House ke political heavyweights, jaise ke Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aur President Joe Biden, ne apne views jataye hain. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, ek Republican, bhi cautious raha, note karte hue ke yeh data sirf ek preliminary estimate hai aur ise baar-baar review kiya jayega.
    Unke against, unka party jaldi react kiya aur current economic dynamics ko "Joe Biden recession" kehne laga. Haan, ye toh lagta hai ke ye ek sirf economic debate thi jo jaldi hi political confrontation mein badal gaya. Aur iski wajah sahi hai, kyun ke U.S. Congress ke liye 8 November ke elections nazdeek hain.

    U.S. Ki Economic Power Diagnose Kaise Hoti Hai?

    Haqeeqatan mein, ek recession ke aane ka jaldi se pata lagana mushkil hota hai. Aur aksar isko kuch mahine baad hi confirm kiya ja sakta hai jab kafi verified macroeconomic data mojood ho. United States mein iski official diagnosis ke liye National Bureau of Economic Research ko muqarar kiya gaya hai. Is organization ke ek khaas committee hai jo ke eight economists se milti hai, jo ke pehle statistical signals milne ke baad closed doors ke peeche milte hain. Ye interval kai mahineon ya phir ek saal tak ka ho sakta hai.
    Bureau hee hai jo recession ko "a significant decline in economic activity that extends throughout the economy and lasts for more than several months, usually visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators" ke roop mein define karta hai.
    Is waqt, kuch mukhtalif economic indicators aane wale recession ke asar ko show nahi kar rahe hain. Yeh khaas kar U.S. jobs market ke liye sach hai: economy jobs create karne mein tezi se kaam kar rahi hai aur berozgari ka rate 3.6% hai - yeh paanch saal ke lows ke qareeb ek figure hai. Saath hi saath, economic cooling ke signs bhi mojood hain: consumer demand mein izafah kuch zyada tezi se ruk gaya hai, aur investment aur private business spending mein kami aayi hai.
    Lekin abhi agar recession ki koi signs nahi hain, toh yeh guarantee nahi hai ke situation jald hi badal jaye gi. Agar inflation high rehti hai, toh yeh demand par bojh dalte rahegi. Is surat mein, Fed ko is inflation se ladhne ke liye aur zyada sakhti se rates badhane ke liye majboor kiya jayega.
    Is waqt, senior officials at the Fed khud cautious taur par optimistic hain, lekin jitna waqt beethta hai, utna hi woh mante hain ke is scenario ke risks badh rahe hain.

    2022-23 Mein Financial Markets Ke Liye Asarat


    Sirf recession ke threat ka maamla financial markets ke liye kya hota hai, iska asar haal hi mein dikha gaya jab kai analyst institutions ne 2022-23 mein recession hone ke liye chances ko 50% tak badha diya: sirf last three months mein leading U.S. stock indices S&P 500 aur Nasdaq Composite ne 15% se zyada giravat dekha.
    Aur iske alawa, har market asset, including commodities, tezi se gir gaye. Yehi gold aur U.S. Treasuries bhi, jo traditional taur par safe havens ke tor par jaane jaate hain, nuksan utha rahe thay.
    Ukraine ke liye, jise apni jung mein doobte hue, global financial markets ki condition peacetime ke muqable mein kam ahmiyat rakhti hai, kyun ke desh apne Western allies aur international financial institutions ki madad par adhiktar dependent hai. Lekin ek recession is support ko bhi serious taur par complicated kar sakti hai, kyun ke West ko apne economic problems mein zyada masroof hona padega.

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