ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai

Monday ke trading session mein spot price thoda sa mazboot hua, jo ke takreeban 0.6920 par pohoncha. Halanki pichle mahine unemployment rate barh gaya, magar labor market ki overall taqat ne currency ko barqarar rakha. Sath hi, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy ne Australian Dollar ko stabilize karne mein madad di, jiski wajah se yeh ab tak resilient raha hai.

**Economic Indicators ka Asar Australian Dollar par**

Australia ka Westpac Consumer Confidence August mein 2.8% barh gaya, jo ke July ke 1.1% decline se recover kar gaya. Sath hi, Wage Price Index steady raha aur doosray quarter mein 0.8% ka izafa dekhne ko mila, halanki yeh market ke 0.9% ke expectation se thoda kum tha. In economic indicators ka mila-jula asar yeh zahir karta hai ke mulk ki economy ab bhi mazboot hai, halan ke labor market aur wages ke hawale se kuch uncertainties mojood hain.

**RBA Forecast Mein Tabdeeli**

Evolving economic conditions ko dekhte hue, Westpac ne apna forecast update kiya hai. Ab wo pehli interest rate cut ki umeed February 2025 mein kar rahe hain, jo pehle November 2024 ka andaza tha. Iske ilawa, Westpac ne apna terminal rate forecast barhake 3.35% kar diya hai, jo pehle 3.10% tha. RBA ka yeh zyada ehtiyaati rukh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke wo pehli rate cuts karne se pehle zyada mazboot economic growth ka saboot chahta hai, jo market mein future monetary policy ke hawale se speculation ko barhawa de raha hai.

**US Inflation Data ke Intizar Mein**

Dunya bhar ke investors ab US inflation data par nazar rakhe hue hain, jo ke market mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate cuts ke hawale se speculation ko badi asarandaaz karne wala hai. Ab tak CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, September ke meeting mein 50 basis points (bp) rate cut ka 54.5% imkaan hai. Is speculation ne AUD/USD pair ke liye milay-julay signals diye hain, aur traders ab tak clarity ka intezar kar rahe hain ke US monetary policy kis simt jaegi.

**AUD/USD Pair ke Key Technical Levels**

Yeh pair foran support face kar raha hai ascending channel ke lower boundary par, jo ke 0.6870 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh pair is support level se neechey break karta hai, tou yeh nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ko test karega jo ke 0.6929 par hai, aur phir throwback level 0.6900 tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh levels ke neechey barqaraar rehta hai, tou yeh ek bearish outlook ki nishandahi karega, jo ke agla key level 0.6950 par le ja sakta hai.

Hamari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke price behaviour assessment par markaz hai. Yeh pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai. Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga.

Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata hai.

Summarize karte hue, AUD/USD clear bullish momentum dikhata hai jab key liquidity gaps fill hoti hain aur support zones se reverse hota hai. 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai, jiska break hone par aage ke upside ki sambhavna hai. Iske baraks, agar price 0.67000 ya isse neeche pullback hoti hai, to yeh buying interest ka samna karegi, agar market conditions favorable rahe. Pair ka overall structure yeh darshata hai ke jab tak key support levels hold hote hain, bullish trend near term mein jaari reh sakta hai

AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ke tajziye ke hawalay se hai. AUD/USD filhal ek downward trend mein hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, 4-hour chart par price cloud ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, Kijun-sen aur Tenkan-sen signal lines ke neeche, aur Chikou-span line bhi price chart ke neeche hai. Is waqt ek "dead cross" active hai. Bollinger Bands downward slope par hain, MACD oscillator ke volumes kam ho rahe hain, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49 se neeche hai, aur trend filter oscillator ne laal rang le liya hai, jo bears ke dominant hone ka saboot deta hai. Iss waqt selling ko tarjeeh di jani chahiye. Agar yeh girawat jari rehti hai, to agla target level 0.6621 hoga. Agar bears is threshold ko tod dete hain, to quotes mazeed gir kar 0.6560 tak ja sakti hain. Main yeh tawaqo karta hoon ke yeh level bhi breakdown hoga, aur downward trend 0.6605 tak jari rahega, jo ke channel ke neeche wali boundary 0.6557 tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Medium term mein mera target 0.6458 aur 0.6349 ke levels par hai. Meri analysis jo maine subah share ki thi, us ke mutabiq AUD/USD market bilkul bears ki madad kar rahi hai aur abhi 0.6646 level par hai. Agar yeh rejection hoti hai, to bulls ko dobara market mein entry lene ka moka milega. Iss dauran, market buyers ke haq mein ja rahi hai, jo is baat ka wazeh ishara hai ke momentum ab upward movement ki taraf shift ho raha hai. Buyers ko taqat mil rahi hai aur wo prices ko upar dhakel rahe hain, jo ke ek bullish scenario ka saboot hai. Doosri taraf, sellers apna asar kho rahe hain aur unhein market par dabao dalna mushkil ho raha hai. Aise mein, sellers ke liye sell entry lena munasib nahi hoga, kyun ke yeh prevailing trend ke khilaf hoga. Is waqt sell position lena nuqsan ka sabab ban sakta hai, kyun ke market ka momentum strong bullish trend ko support kar raha hai aur downward movement ka faida uthana mushkil hai. Imandari se, yeh lagta hai ke AUD/USD market agle chand ghanton mein bullish trend shuru kar dega. Yeh observation technical analysis ke zariye bhi support hoti hai jo daily aur hourly charts par available hai. Dono timeframes aaj ke liye bullish scenario ko dikhate hain, jo is baat ko reinforce karta hai ke market upward move kar raha hai. Daily chart, jo market ke movements ka broader perspective deta hai, ek strong upward trend dikhata hai, jahan price levels resistance points ko break kar rahi hain

۔ dollar ne ek zabardast bounce dekha hai ek ahem uptrend line se, khaaskar 140 yen ke level ke qareeb, jo kay kai martaba ahm sabit ho chuka hai. Pichlay haftay, jab Federal Reserve ne 50 basis points ka rate cut introduce kiya, toh Bank of Japan ne apne rates ko waisa hi rakha, jo ke market ke liye ahm sawalat ko janam deta hai.
Khaas taur par wo pehle ka khauf ke Japan achanak se ek hawkish stance apnaye ga, abhi tak sach nahi ho saka hai. Magar Japan is mein abhi tak kaamyab nahi ho saka, zyada tar apni kamzor economy ki wajah se. Mulk ki economic structure zyada high interest rates ko bardaasht nahi kar sakti kyun ke ye qarz mein izafa karegi jo ke economy ko tabah kar sakta hai. Japanese hukoomat majboor hai ke rates ko buhat low rakhe, aur un ke paas koi asal option nahi ke unhe 25 basis points se zyada barhaya ja sake. Agar wo koshish karte, toh ye sirf Japan mein nahi, balki poori duniya ke markets mein financial collapse ka sabab ban sakta tha.

Iss surat-e-haal mein lagta hai ke hum USD/JPY pair mein ek bullish reversal ka aghaz dekh rahe hain, aur filhal is market ko short karna munasib nahi lagta. Jab tak dollar 140 yen ke ahm level se upar hai, market ka jazba mazeed bullish momentum ko support karta rahe ga. Is baat ka saboot ke hum ne haftay ke ikhtitam par is crucial support level ke neeche close nahi kiya, is baat ko mazid mazbooti deta hai ke US dollar ki quwwat yen ke muqable mein barqarar rahegi.

Mukhtasir taur par, Bank of Japan ke economic majboriyon ke bawajood aur US dollar ke ahm support se upar hone ke saath, lagta hai ke currency pair ka rasta oopar ka hai. Jab tak ¥140 ke level ke neeche koi wabasta tor na ho, is market ko short karna be-fayda lagta hai.

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Have a nice day everyone! AUD/USD ke daily chart par linear regression channel ka slope upward direction main ja raha hai, jo buyer ki taqat ko indicate karta hai, jo price ko 0.68090 ke level tak pohanchane ki koshish kar raha hai. Jab yeh target achieve hoga, toh movement dheemi ho jayegi aur market thora sustain karega. Iss dauran, volatility kum ho jayegi aur ek correction ka waqt aa sakta hai. Channel ke top se buying ka sochna sahi nahi hoga; hamein pehle correction ka intezaar karna chahiye takay price 0.67873 ke aas-paas aaye. Uske baad buying ka sochna theek hoga. Agar price 0.67873 ke neeche fix ho jata hai, toh bearish movement ka signal mil sakta hai, jisse market neechay jasakta hai. Iss surat mein buying ka option kamzor lagne lagega. Channel ka angle batata hai ke bull kitna active hai — jitna zyada angle hoga, utni hi buyer ki taqat hogi. Aksar, channel ka strong angle market mein kisi news ya event ke wajah se hota hai, jo ek achi movement ka sabab banta hai. D1 timeframe par linear regression channel ko main base bana kar movement ko analyze karta hoon. Abhi yeh channel bullish trend ko dikhata hai, aur jab smaller period par signal break hota hai, toh humein price ke 0.67664 tak neeche anay ka intezaar karna chahiye. Phir yeh level ek achi buying opportunity de sakta hai jahan se price 0.68407 tak ja sakta hai. Jab bulls channel ke upper border tak pohanchte hain, toh main buying mein thoda cautious ho jata hoon, aur iss waqt sales ka option bhi theek nahi lagta kyunki woh mere liye risky hota hai. Mera trading principle yeh hai ke D1 channel ke direction ke hisaab se trade karta hoon kyunki yeh mera main channel hai. Chote channel par entry ko clarify karta hoon aur strong movement ke saath kaam karta hoon, jab correction minimal hota hai.

AUDUSD currency pair ab bhi bullish trend par aage barhne ki salahiyat rakhta hai. Agar hum H4 time frame par price action ka jaiza lein, to bullish trend structure phir se banana shuru ho gaya hai jab market ne August ke aakhri din trading session mein qadam rakha. Pichle kuch dinon se bullish movement jo chal rahi hai, wo aalaaqat se upward trend rally hai. Agar hum pichle mahine ke akhir mein sellers ki nakami ko dekhein, jo 0.6650 ke niche nahi ja sake, to is wajah se dusre buyers ko BUY trading positions lene mein zyada confidence mila hai. Is waqt candlestick ki position Simple Moving Average indicator ke upar hai, jo yeh darust karti hai ke market ab bhi buyers ke asar mein hai. Price niche girne ke bawajood yellow SMA 60 indicator ko break nahi kar paya, jo ke yeh darust karta hai ke AUDUSD currency pair ke bullish trend ki taraf wapas aane ki salahiyat hai. Market ki umeed hai ke wo upar ki taraf barhne ki koshish karega. Meri agle andazay ke mutabiq, market ab bhi aage barhne ki taraf hai. Halanki, market is waqt halki downward correction phase mein hai, lekin bullish movement ka mauqa ab bhi zyada range tak jaane ki umeed hai. Mera andaza hai ke aaj raat tak price mein izafa hoga, lekin range itni wide nahi hogi kyunki is hafte ke darmiyan trend shayad correction phase ke baad apne raahein dobara pakrayega.

Agar price 0.6800 ke upar barh jata hai to yeh is currency pair ke liye bullish safar jaari rakhne ka mazboot signal hoga. Is liye buyers ka dominion ab bhi price ko upar push karne ki taqat rakhta hai. Trading ka option ab bhi BUY transactions ki taraf hai. Natija: AUDUSD currency pair ke market halat ko agar technically dekha jaye to yeh ab bhi bullish hai, isliye is hafte ke trading session mein price ke izafe ki sambhavnayein ab bhi khuli hain. Lekin buyers ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke thoda sabr karein aur 0.6825 level tak rukne ka intezar karein pehle BUY position kholne se pehle. Target price level bullish ko 0.6875 tak pahunchne ki koshish karni chahiye, aur Stop Loss limit ko 0.6790 par rakhna chahiye. Agar agle trade mein price 0.6880 ko penetrate kar leta hai, to bullish trend phase dobara shuru ho sakhai

AUD/USD ka uptrend 4-hour chart par support level 0.6625 se shuru ho chuka hai. Agar technical analysis ka mutala kiya jaye, toh yahan clear buy signals nazar aa rahe hain, jahan do important indicators ne iss ko confirm kiya hai. MACD oscillator ka histogram negative zone se nikal kar zero ko cross kar gaya hai aur ab positive territory mein chala gaya hai, jabke moving average bhi upward trend kar raha hai. Yeh sab ishaarat karte hain ke price smoothly barh sakti hai aur 0.6824 level ko cross karne ke imkanaat hain.Agar price kam az kam is distance ka aadha hisa tay kar leti hai aur extended position profitable ho jati hai, toh stop loss ko breakeven par lana ehedi ehtiyaat ka hissa hoga. Jaise hi AUD/USD pair resistance area 0.6794 ke kareeb pahunchta hai, sirf ek choti si rukawat 0.6767 par hai, jise candle body ne kuch had tak cross kar liya hai. Agle kuch dinon mein iss candle ka close hona bohot ahmiyat ka hamil hoga. Agar yeh apne mojooda level ke kareeb close hoti hai, toh mujhe umeed hai ke price aage barh kar 0.6794 resistance ko choo legi, jahan mein short karne ka sochunga. Abhi ke liye, main side par rahunga. AUD/USD pair ke liye overall momentum bearish hai, halankeh sellers ke positions thore kamzor lagte hain. Agar price 0.6774/0.6799 resistance zone ke ooper wapas jati hai, toh yeh mumkin hai ke recent high 0.6823 ko test kare. Sab se qareebi support zone 0.6738/0.6721 ke qareeb hai, jahan se price ya toh wapas upar chal sakti hai ya phir downward trend ko barqarar rakhte hue 0.6621 ke bearish start line ki taraf gir sakti hai.Yeh 0.6621 support level kaafi crucial hai—agar yeh break hota hai, toh pehli downward wave trigger hogi jo AUD/USD pair ko 0.6496 aur 0.6419 tak le ja sakti hai. Jo chart hum dekh rahe hain, us par candles ne blue rang le liya hai, jo bulls ki strength ko indicate karta hai. Price ne channel ke neeche waale hadd ko (red dotted line) cross kiya aur minimum price mark se bounce kar ke wapas middle line (yellow dotted line) tak aa gayi hai. RSI oscillator bhi buy signal ko confirm kar raha hai, kyunke iski curve upward hai aur overbought levels ke kareeb nahi hai

Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai

Spot price mein moderate appreciation dekhne ko mili hai jab se domestic employment data aur China ke key economic figures release hui hain. Lekin, currency US Dollar ke muqablay mein apni strength barqarar nahi rakh saki, kyun ke copper aur iron ore ki prices gir rahi hain, jo ke Aussie par burden bana hua hai. Commodity prices mein ye girawat aur zyada badi China ke worsening credit data ke baad, jisme commodity surplus aur girti hui demand ne Australian markets par pressure ko barhaya hai.Yeh pair ek ahm mor par hai, jab market participants domestic aur international developments par nazar rakh rahe hain. Jabke RBA ki hawkish policies aur stable global equities support kar rahi hain, lekin currency ab bhi geopolitical uncertainties aur US monetary policy mein changes ke liye vulnerable hai. Aanay wale US inflation figures ek pivotal factor honge, jisme koi bhi surprise Fed ki rate outlook aur AUD/USD ke direction par asar daal sakta hai.Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser ne persistent inflation ko disrupted supply chains aur constrained labor market se link kiya, aur future economic forecasts ke hawalay se significant uncertainty ko highlight kiya. In challenges ke ilawa, Australian dollar, jo ke risk ke liye sensitive maana jata hai, safe-haven flows ke barhawa ki wajah se pressure mein hai, khas tor par Middle East mein escalating geopolitical tensions ki wajah se. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ne U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ko Iran ke military actions ke baare mein inform kiya, jo ke Israel par ek bara strike ke liye tayyari ka ishara de raha hai, aur global concerns ko aur barha raha hai.US Dollar ko momentum hasil karne mein mushkil ka samna hai, kyun ke Federal Reserve se badhtay hue interest rate cuts ki umeed barhti ja rahi hai. Central banks ke darmiyan ye monetary policy ka farq price ke liye favorable raha hai. Lekin, pair ke liye mazeed gains ka potential limited hai jab traders aanay wale US inflation data par focus kar rahe hain, jo ke market sentiment ko significant tor par badal sakta hai. Agar pair ascending channel ko breach karta hai, to bearish pressures samnay aa sakte hain. Channel ke neeche break karne se downward trend start ho sakta hai, jisse pair throwback level of 0.6940 tak push ho sakt

/USD ke jo price movement hai, wo resistance level 0.6839 ko test karne ki koshish kar raha hai taake apni upward rally ko jaari rakh sake. Lekin, jab market bullish trend mein hoti hai, to price ke upar jaane ke chances zyada hote hain. Magar, agar price resistance 0.6839 se reject hota hai ya false break hoti hai, to yeh neeche correct hoke minor support 0.6795 tak aasakti hai. Agar hum observe karein, to price jab upar move karta hai to sirf EMA 50 ke aas paas correct hota hai aur SMA 200 tak nahi girta, jo ke dynamic support ka kaam karta hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke current bullish trend kaafi strong hai kyunki correction zyada neeche nahi ja raha. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke perspective se dekhein, to uptrend momentum kamzor hota nazar aa raha hai. Volume histogram jo ke positive area mein hai, level 0 ke kareeb pohanch raha hai aur is baat ka chance hai ke yeh negative area mein cross kar jaye. Stochastic indicator ke perspective se dekhein to yeh price movement ko support kar raha hai ke AUD/USD pair upar move kar sakta hai. Kyunke parameters ne oversold zone (level 20 - 10) ko cross kar liya hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke price decline ab apne selling saturation point par pohanch gaya hai. Agar hum price pattern structure ko dekhein, to yeh ab tak higher high aur higher low condition mein hai. Jab tak 0.6784 ke low prices ka structure break nahi hota, jo ke invalidation level hai, price rally ko continue kar sak

Audusd Pair par upward pressure aa raha hai jabkay investors Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy stance ko ghoor se dekh rahe hain. Dusray quarter mein strong wage growth kay bawajood, RBA Governor Michele Bullock ne aglay chhay mahinay mein rate cuts kay imkaan ko rad kar diya hai. Bullock ne yeh wazeh kiya hai ke Australian central bank ab bhi inflation ke risks par alert hai aur agar zaroori hua to mazeed rates barhane ke liye tayar hai. Filhal, AUD/USD pair 0.6939 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo market ka Australian Dollar par confidence dikhata hai.
Australia ke Treasurer Jim Chalmers ne RBA ki is assessment ko challenge kiya hai ke mulk ki economy bohat ziada strong hai. RBA ka maanna hai ke baray government budgets inflation ko barhawa de rahe hain, lekin Chalmers is raye se mukhalfat karte hain aur yeh keh rahe hain ke economy central bank ke andaze se zyada balanced hai. Is ikhtilaf ne investors ke liye ek complex tasweer peda kar di hai jo Australia ki economy aur Australian Dollar ke future trajectory ka andaza lagane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Doosri taraf, US Dollar muskilat ka samna kar raha hai jab Wednesday ko Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ke release ke baad yeh samney aya ke July mein US inflation rate moderate increase dikha raha hai. Is se investors mein speculation barh rahi hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) aglay qadam kya uthaayega. Traders aksar aglay mahiney mein 25 basis points ka rate cut expect kar rahe hain, jismein 60% ka imkaan hai, lekin CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 50 basis points ka zyada aggressive cut ka bhi 36% imkaan hai. Anay wali US Initial Jobless Claims aur Retail Sales ka data bhi market sentiment ko mazeed mutasir kar sakta hai is speculation mein mazeed izafa hua jab Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid ne yeh kaha ke agar inflation mehal ho jati hai to monetary policy ko kam karna "munasib" ho sakta hai. Schmid ne yeh ishara diya ke Fed ki mojooda policy "itni restrictive nahi hai" aur ke halan ke Fed apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb hai, lekin ab tak is maqsad ko poora nahi kiya gaya. Is nazariye ne US monetary policy ke future par mukhtalif rayein paida kar di hain, khaaskar jabke global economy ab bhi uncertainties ka samna kar rahi hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki monetary policy trajectories mein farq ka asar currency values par kafi zyada hota hai. Aam tor par, yeh farq US dollar ko mazid mazbooti deta hai jabke Australian dollar ko kamzor karta hai. Yeh trend AUD/USD exchange rate ke recent decline mein wazeh tor par dekhne ko milta hai. Is ke ilawa, broader market conditions aur risk sentiment ka bhi currency movements par aham asar hota hai. Global economic outlook, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices mein utaar chadaav jese factors AUD/USD pair ko mutasir karte hain.Misal ke tor par, Australian dollar ki performance ka taluq zyadah tar key commodities, khaaskar iron ore, se hota hai jo Australia ka aik bara export hai. Agar commodity prices girti hain, to Australian dollar par mazeed pressure aata hai, jis ka asar AUD/USD pair par bhi hota hai. Filhal, AUD/USD ke liye initial resistance level 0.6643 par set hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai, to agla bullish target 0.7121 tak ja sakta hai. Aur agar price 0.7121 ke upar close hoti hai, to market ka agla objective 0.7543 tak barh sakta hai, jo teesra resistance level hai.Doosri taraf, AUD/USD pair ke liye initial support level 0.6616 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh support level breach hota hai, to agla bearish target 0.6593 par ho sakta hai. Aur agar price 0.6593 se neeche close hoti hai, to market ka price 0.5843 tak ja sakta hai, jo teesra support level hai. Traders ko ehtiyat se kaam lena chahiye aur in support aur resistance areas par ghoor se nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke yeh areas market ki direction ke badalne ka signal de sakte hain.Friday ke Asian market session mein, lagta hai buyers ab bhi control mein hain, aur woh actively bullish opportunities dhoond rahe hain aur price ko upar push kar rahe hain. Unka maqsad sellers ke resistance area ko test karna hai jo 0.6638-0.6640 ke qareeb hai. Is area ko successfully penetrate karna zaroori hoga taake bullish trajectory khul sake, aur agla target sellers ke supply resistance zone mein 0.6695-0.6700 ke qareeb ho sakta hai, jo ab tak sellers ke control mein hai.

Akhir mein, AUD/USD pair ki dynamics monetary policy divergence, commodity price fluctuations, aur broader market sentiment ka mix hai. Support aur resistance ke key levels ko monitor kar ke traders market movements ka faida utha sakte hain aur is currency pair mein chalne walay fluctuations ko capitalize kar sakte hain. Market ke evolve hone par, vigilance aur adaptability zaroori honge taake trading strategies successful ho sakein.

Last week's trading main buyers ne consistent tor par market mein dominance dikhaayi aur EMA200 Weekly ke upar successful closing ki. Ye pehli dafa hai pichlay do saalon mein, jo ke long-term uptrend ka mazboot ishara hai. Interesting baat yeh hai ke aaj September ka aakhri trading day bhi hai, toh aise mauqay par aksar large profit taking dekhi ja sakti hai. Is liye humein isko anticipate karna chahiye, kyun ke uptrending market mein bhi downward correction ka chance hota hai, jise hum aglay buy opportunity ke liye use kar sakte hain. Jaise ke is waqt AUDUSD pair par dekhne ko mil raha hai. Agar EMA200 Weekly ka position dekha jaye jo ke ab support ban gaya hai, toh price ke girnay aur retest karne ka strong chance hai. Daily basis par EMA200 Weekly support ke retest ka potential nazar aa raha hai, jahan candle ka position upper Bollinger Bands line ko reject kar raha hai, jo ke wahan strong rejection ka ishara hai. Abhi tak sell action lena valid nahi hai, kyunki weakening signal poori tarah se form nahi hua, magar initial signs shuru ho gaye hain. Khaas tor par agar aaj ka candlestick bearish close karta hai toh sell signal mazid strong ho jaye ga. Aur agar bullish candlestick close karta hai lekin upper Bollingerbands ke upar close nahi hota, toh market yellow resistance 0.6938 ke aas paas sideways chal sakti hai aur distribution setup form kar sakti hai. Is distribution phase mein slowly sell actions liye jate hain jo ke bearish trigger karte hain. H4 basis par weakening signal aur strong ho raha hai. Pehlay jo uptrend tha, wo break hua jab price middle BB ke neeche gir gaya, jo blue rectangle main dikh raha hai. Halanki buyers ka reaction strong tha aur price ko upar le aaya, lekin RSI 14, Stochastic, aur AO momentum indicators main koi izafa nahi dekhne ko mila, jo ke magenta line par visually unsynced dikh raha hai. Iss halat mein instant sell action valid hai, lekin traders ko apna loss limit thoda 0.6940 ke upar set karna chahiye. Best sell signal tab generate hoga jab Blue EMA50 ko breach kiya jaye aur pehla profit target Red EMA200 ke aas paas ho. Yeh previous weekly basis par support test ka scenario bhi hai.