ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AudUsd Market Analysis
August 4, 2024

Chaliye market trend ko pichle teen hafton se monitor karte hain, yeh lagta hai ke yeh drastically bearish raha hai. Seller ke strong pressure se price weak ho rahi hai. Yahaan main apni rai dena chahta hoon market ke liye, agar main is haftay ki price movement pattern ko monitor karoon, to lagta hai ke market ab bhi neeche ja raha hai halanki kuch upward correction bhi dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Mere khayal mein, agle haftay bhi price bearish side par wapas aane ki koshish karegi jaise pichle haftay dekha gaya tha, jahan sellers ne candlestick ko highest zone 0.6786 se neeche le jaaya tha.

Ab price position 0.6512 area par aa gayi hai, candlestick position ab bhi 100 period ke simple moving average zone se neeche chal rahi hai, jo ke larger time frame mein bearish trend ka continuation dikha rahi hai. Market scenario agle haftay ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke hum sirf price ke wapas neeche jane ka intezar kar rahe hain taake Sell trading signal mil sake. Yeh mumkin hai ke seller price ko aur neeche le jana chahte hain aur 100 period ke simple moving average zone se door le jana chahte hain. Agar main current price movement ko monitor karoon to yeh bearish lagta hai, mujhe lagta hai ke market seller ke asar mein hoga aur dobara girne ka chance hai taake 0.6471 price zone ko test kiya ja sake kyunki calculations aur technical analysis ke mutabiq price movement apni journey ko Downtrend side ki taraf continue kar sakti hai.

Trading recommendation: SELL (4-Hour Chart)

Position opening strategy:

AudUsd pair ka price movement agar 4-hour time frame mein monitor kiya jaye to yeh market trend Downtrend side ki taraf move karta hua nazar aata hai. Agar pichle mahine se is mahine tak ke candlestick movement ko dekha jaye to yeh neeche girti hui nazar aati hai, yeh mumkin hai ke price aur neeche gir sakti hai taake bearish side ki taraf continue karne ke liye mauka mile. Ideal area trading position ko open karne ke liye 0.6476 ke aas paas hai, shayad seller ka goal 0.6427 zone ke aas paas hai, is tarah trading period agle haftay ke liye hum trend direction ke mutabiq position open karne ke area ko determine karne ke liye opportunities dekh sakte hain.

Mujhe lagta hai ke hum abhi tak daily chart par Fibonacci grid ke 161.8 ke aakhri target tak nahi pohnche hain. Magar is ke ilawa humein dobara enter karne ka mauka mil raha hai, pehle 0.6570 tak ki significant corrections hui, aur phir hum 90 points gire, jo ke fans ke liye kaafi interesting hona chahiye. Agle hafte hum expect karte hain ke hum 0.6435 tak girein ge, jo ke current se kam az kam 70 points ka difference hai bina InstaForex spread ko consider kiye. Intraday pivots sirf humein general working range dikhayenge jo hum use karenge. Kal subah mein is par zyada focus karne ki koshish karunga. Fundamentals ke mutabiq, economic calendar mein sirf USA ke events scheduled hain jo ke 3 star category ke hain, 16:45 aur 17:00 par - "Purchasing Managers' Index for Non-Manufacturing Sector aur Business Activity Index Services Sector". Australia se koi interesting offer nahi hai.

Sideways trading ke bawajood, price ne ascending price channels aur weekly pivot level dono ko tor diya. Is haftay trading ascending price channels ke andar shuru hui jo pichle do hafton ke price movement ka direction represent karte hain, lekin is hafte price direction downside ki taraf badal sakti hai. Price weekly support level 0.6510 ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo agle direction ko determine karegi. Agar price is level se support leti hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to selling retest pattern successful ho gaya. Agar price wapas weekly pivot level par aati hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to ise downward trend consider kiya ja sakta hai.

Pichle do dinon mein, price ne ek price nucleus ke andar upward trend ke saath move kiya, jo aaj ke price movement ko represent karta hai. Price ne din ke aaghaz par support liya lekin middle line of the price channels se resistance face kiya, aur ab price us peak ke neeche trade kar rahi hai jo middle line of the price channels se form hua tha. Is liye, price ka lower channel lines tak pohnchne ka kaafi chance hai phir wapas upar jane se pehle.

Pair ko trade karne ke do tareeqe hain. Pehle case mein, price channels ke bottom tak girti hai aur phir wapas top tak bounce karti hai, jo ek bullish price action banati hai. Is case mein aap middle line of the channels tak buy kar sakte hain. Jab price rise hoti hai aur last price peak ke upar trade karti hai, to ye ek upward trend ke return ko indicate karti hai. Economics ke hawale se, psychological resistance 0.6615 bulls ke legitimate target ko serve karega agar investors Japanese yen ko chhod dete hain jab tak Japanese market mein dubara intervene na karein taake Japanese currency ko aur collapse hone se bachaya ja sake.

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis**

Sideways trading ke bawajood, price ne dono ascending price channels aur weekly pivot level ko break kar diya. Is hafte, trading ascending price channels ke andar start hui jo pichle do hafton ke dauran price movement ko represent karte hain, lekin is hafte price ka direction downside mein badal sakta hai. Price ab weekly support level 0.6510 ke taraf hai, jo agle direction ko determine karega. Agar price is level se support le kar phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to selling retest pattern successful hai. Agar price weekly pivot level par wapas aati hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to ise downward trend mana ja sakta hai.

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis**

Pichle do dino mein, price ek upward trend ke saath price nucleus ke andar move hui hai, jo aaj ke price movement ko darshata hai. Price din ke shuruat mein support mili, lekin price channels ki middle line se resistance ka samna hua, aur ab price us peak ke neeche trade kar rahi hai jo middle line ke dwara bana tha. Isliye, price ke lower channel lines tak pohnchne ki umeed hai pehle, phir upar waapas aane se pehle.

Pair ko trade karne ke do tareeqe hain. Pehle case mein, agar price channels ke bottom par girti hai aur phir se upar bounce karti hai, to bullish price action banega. Is situation mein, aap channels ki middle line tak buy kar sakte hain. Jab price upar uthti hai aur last price peak ke upar trade karti hai, to yeh upward trend ke wapas aane ka indication hota hai.

Economic perspective se, 0.6615 ka psychological resistance bulls ke liye ek legitimate target banega agar investors Japanese yen ko chhod dete hain, jab tak Japanese markets mein intervene nahi karte taake Japanese currency further collapse se bache.

Is hafte, sideways trading ke bawajood, price ne ascending price channels aur weekly pivot level ko tod diya hai. Is hafte ka trading ascending price channels ke andar shuru hui jo peechlay do hafton ke dauran price movement ka direction dikhate hain, lekin is hafte price downside ki taraf ja sakti hai. Price weekly support level 0.6510 ke qareeb hai, jo agle direction ka taayun karega. Agar price is level se support le kar phir neeche ki taraf jaati hai, to selling retest pattern successful hoga. Agar price weekly pivot level par wapas aata hai aur phir neeche jaata hai, to isay downward trend kaha ja sakta hai.

Pichlay do dinon mein, price ek upward trend ke sath ek price nucleus ke andar move hui hai, jo aaj ki price movement ko represent karti hai. Din ke aghaz mein price ne support liya, lekin middle line of the price channels se resistance face ki aur ab price trading kar rahi hai middle line ke peak se neeche. Is liye, mumkin hai ke price lower channel lines tak pohnchay pehle ke wapas top ki taraf aaye. Do tareeqay hain jinn se pair trade kiya ja sakta hai. Pehle case mein, price channels ke bottom par girti hai aur wapas top ki taraf bounce back karti hai, jo ek bullish price action ko form karti hai. Is case mein aap middle line of the channels tak buy kar sakte hain. Jab price rise kar ke last price peak ke upar trade karti hai, to yeh upward trend ke return ko indicate karti hai. Economics ke hawalay se, agar investors Japanese yen ko chhod dete hain to AUD/USD price mein psychological resistance 0.6615 bulls ke liye legitimate target serve karega, jab tak ke Japanese phir se markets mein intervene nahi karte aur Japanese currency ko mazeed collapse hone se rokte hain.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Jaisay kay pehlay do haftay guzray hain, price sideways move kar rahi hai, jo pichlay do mahino se price movement ki direction ko represent kar rahi hai. Shuru mein price strong buy zone mein trade kar rahi thi jab yeh middle line of channels aur monthly pivot level se support ho rahi thi, magar phir yeh decline hui aur pivot level toot gaya. Price ne rebound kiya jab lower channel lines ko pohonchi, pin candle form hui, jis se bulls ko umeed mili, magar price phir bhi dar se aagay barhti gayi. Jab price middle lines of channels ko touch ki, to dobara rebound hui aur pin candle banayi. Girnay kay baad, price ne Friday ke trading ke doran lower channel line ko pohonch kar rebound kiya, jo humein dobara rise ka mauqa diya. Is natijay mein, area jo middle lines of price channels aur lower lines ke darmiyan hai, sideways trading ke liye ek candidate ban gaya hai jab tak dono directions mein se koi ek break na kare.

Agar price 0.6555 ke support level tak girti hai aur phir se rise hoti hai to downward trend ko confirm karti hai, to hum ek successful retest pattern ka intezar kar sakte hain. Agar price 0.6580 ke support level tak pohonchti hai, to hum pair ko sell karna shuru kar sakte hain. Buying opportunities 4-hour chart par tab likely hain jab price dobara monthly pivot level of 0.6510 ke ooper do candles par trade karna shuru karti hai aur agle do candles par stabilize karti hai. Apna stop loss previous week's trading ke low point par set karein aur apna target monthly resistance level of 0.6610 par rakhain.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD
Australian dollar ne pichlay trading week mai decline continue rakha aur local levels ko moderately update kiya, jo 0.6506 level se thora neeche hain. Lekin, is level pe strong support mila, jisne iski downward trend ko rok diya aur pehlay losses ko recover karne pe majboor kar diya. Price chart abhi bhi super-trend red zone mai hai, jo dikhata hai ke sellers ka pressure barkarar hai.

Technical nazriya se, 4-hour chart pe dekha jaye to prices ne 50-day simple moving average ko break karna shuru kar diya hai aur temporarily 0.6320 support level se upar rise kar rahi hain. Yahan se, agar intraday trading consolidation 0.6610 se upar hoti hai, to expected move up ho sakta hai with a target of 0.6489 as next stop, aur possible target 0.6745 tak ja sakta hai. Agar 0.6530 se neeche break hota hai to prices lower push hongi with a retest target of 0.6280. Chart dekhain:



Pair is waqt slightly lower trade kar raha hai aur weekly lows ke qareeb hai. Key resistance area ab tak fully test nahi hua, halan ke price ne iske neeche consolidate kiya hua hai, jo downward vector ki importance ko show karta hai. Downward movement ko continue karne ke liye, price ko 0.6573 level ke neeche consolidate karna hoga, jo ke main resistance zone ke qareeb hai. Agar successful retest aur subsequent rebound downward hota hai, to pair ek aur downward movement form kar sakta hai targeting the area between 0.6433 and 0.6368.

Agar resistance break hoti hai aur price 0.6635 reversal level ko break karti hai, to current scenario cancel hone ka signal milay ga.

Australian dollar gir raha hai jab se Monday ka PMI data release hua hai. July mein Australia ka composite PMI 49.9 par gir gaya jo June mein 50.2 tha, aur services PMI bhi 50.4 par aagaya jo pehle 51.8 tha. US dollar bhi apna ground kho raha hai recent unfavorable employment data ki wajah se, jis ne Fed rate cut ke expectations ko September mein barhaya hai. Australian dollar Monday ko 0.6460 ke around trade kar raha hai Daily chart ko analyze karte hue, hum dekhte hain ke AUD/USD pair descending channel mein consolidate ho raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ka ishara hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold level 30 ke neeche hover kar raha hai, jo upward correction ka potential suggest karta hai. AUD/USD pair ko immediate support descending channel ke lower boundary ke around reverse support level 0.6470 par mil sakta hai
Dusri taraf, resistance pehli baar channel ke upper boundary ke around 0.6520 par encounter hota hai, followed by nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6544. Agla significant resistance 0.6575 par hai, jahan "reverse support turned resistance" hai. Is level ke upar breakout AUD/USD pair ko six-month high 0.6798 tak push kar sakta hai. Main buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Sab ko profitable trades ki dua
NZD/USD ke liye Current Market Situation
Chaliye D1 timeframe par NZD/USD currency pair discuss karte hain. Ye last month ke aath tareekh se downward trend mein hai, jo poora mahina continue raha steady decline ke sath. Ye downtrend doosre major pairs se zyada intense raha hai. Wave structure downward move kar raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sell zone mein hai, apni signal line ke neeche. Third wave complete ho chuki hai, aur agar first wave par Fibonacci retracement apply karein, to hum dekhte hain ke minimum downside targets 161.8 aur 200 levels par reach ho chuke hain
Price ascending support line ko hit karta hai jo higher waves ke lows se draw hui hai, break through karte hue but support zone ke near horizontal level 0.5862 ko penetrate karne mein fail. Is se position closing hui sellers se aur new purchases hui, jise fourth wave mein slight rebound aya. Samajhne ki baat ye hai ke mahine ka end abhi abhi hua, monthly results lock karne ka waqt tha, jo price pullback ko lead karta hai. Technical reasons ke liye, four-hour chart par MACD par bullish divergence dikh raha hai. Ab, fifth wave mein decline ka continuation expected hai, jo significant minimum level 0.5862 ko update karega
Maine ye move last Friday ko expect kiya tha, lekin US news ki wajah se nahi hua. Non-farm payroll data forecast se bohot bura tha, US unemployment rate 0.2 points se barh gaya. Resultantly, price ne rally karne ki koshish ki but GBP aur EUR ke tarah surge nahi kar paya. Ye sellers ki strength indicate karta hai. Main ab bhi downward scenario ko likely dekhta hoo
Near-Term Strategy for NZD/US
NZD/USD pair ko H1 timeframe par dekhte hain, price upward trend mein hai kyunke 133-period moving average ke upar hai, jo trend ko confirm karta hai. Magar shorter timeframe par, price 133-period moving average ke neeche close ho raha hai, jo possible correction indicate karta hai. Main expect karta hoon ke price 0.5965 level ke upar consolidate karega pehle is pair ko buy consider karne se pehle. Warna, agar price 0.5910 ke neeche girti hai, to ye sell ka signal hoga. Filhal priority upward trend par buying par hai hourly timeframe mein
Aaj, main potential buy opportunities NZD/USD ke liye dekh raha hoon. Given ke last daily close ek new high result karta hai, main buy entries dekhunga. Best buying price previous day's low 0.5933 hoga, lekin main entries is point ke upar bhi consider karunga. Agar price previous day's range ke 50% se neeche drop hoti hai, mere paas ek stop order hai losses ko limit karne ke liye 0.5911 par. Main profit 50% above highest point of previous day 0.5999 par loonga
Market Dynamics and Future Outloo
NZD/USD pair ke performance ko H1 chart par dekhte hue, market dynamics potential buying opportunities dikhate hain despite recent downward pressure. Focus key support aur resistance levels ke around price behavior par hoga. Resistance level 0.5965 ke upar break aur consolidation further bullish movement ka rasta khol sakta hai, jo higher levels ko target kar sakta hai

AUD/USD pair is is waqt $0.6655 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, jo ke foreign exchange market mein aik neutral trend dikhati hai. Yeh value kaafi stable nazar aati hai, daily charts mein currency pair aik consolidation pattern show kar raha hai, jis se koi clear directional movement nahi nazar aati. Daily charts se yeh maloom hota hai ke AUD/USD pair aik rectangular pattern mein phansa hua hai, jo ke market consolidation ka aik classic indicator hai. Yeh pattern aksar tab samnay aata hai jab kisi asset ki price parallel support aur resistance levels ke darmiyan oscillate karti hai, jo buying aur selling pressures ke darmiyan aik equilibrium ko suggest karti hai. Aise phases mein, traders aksar currency pair ko sideways move karte huay dekhte hain, jahan koi momentum nahi hota ke woh decisively upar ya neeche breakout kar sake Kai factors hain jo Australian dollar ke liye is consolidation period ka sabab ban rahe hain. Global level par, economic data releases, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices—khas tor par Australia ke key exports jese ke iron ore aur coal—ki shifts, currency ke performance par bohot asar daal sakti hain. Domestically, Reserve Bank of Australia ke monetary policy ke hawale se decisions, inflation rates, aur economic growth ke indicators bhi currency ke direction ke aham determinants hain
Iske ilawa, market participants global economic conditions ke hawale se uncertainty ki wajah se cautious stance apna rahe hain. Factors jese ke major central banks ke potential interest rate changes, trade tensions, aur post-pandemic economic recovery prospects, trader sentiment ko influence kar rahe hain. Yeh cautious approach aksar consolidation patterns mein sideways movement ki shakal mein reflect hoti hai, jahan market players clear signals ka wait karte hain pehle ke significant positions mein commit karein
Technical analysis mein, rectangular pattern ko aksar aik preparatory phase ke tor par dekha jata hai. Traders aur analysts aise formations ko closely monitor karte hain kyun ke yeh substantial price movements se pehle ke indicators hote hain. Is pattern se eventual breakout—chahe upar ho ya neeche—aksar increased trading volume aur heightened volatility ke sath hota hai, jo ke aik strong directional trend ko indicate karta hai
Filhal, AUD/USD pair aik holding pattern mein hai. Traders aur investors key events ya data releases ka intezar kar rahe hain jo ke breakout ke liye zaroori impetus provide kar sakein. Jab tak aise developments nahi hoti, Australian dollar ke $0.6655 mark ke qareeb hover karne ki umeed hai, aur foreign exchange market mein apna neutral trend maintain karega

AUD/USD جوڑی اس وقت چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر اپنی حالیہ تجارتی رینج کے اوپری حصے کے قریب ٹریڈ کر رہی ہے، اور مجموعی رجحان اوپر کی طرف دکھائی دیتا ہے۔ پھر بھی، میں ابھی خریدنے سے ہچکچا رہا ہوں۔ کچھ عوامل ہیں جو یہ تجویز کرتے ہیں کہ نیچے کی طرف اصلاح زیادہ ممکن ہے۔ پہلے تو، اوپر کی جانب ڈھلان کے باوجود، قیمتیں تجارتی رینج کی اوپری حد کے قریب ہورہی ہیں۔ یہ خریدنے کی طاقت کے ختم ہونے کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ مزید برآں، چارٹ پر تکنیکی اشاریے الٹنے کا اشارہ دے رہے ہیں۔ یہاں دلچسپ بات یہ ہے کہ اگر بیئرز (فروخت کنندگان) قیمت کو نیلے موونگ ایوریج کے نیچے روکنے میں کامیاب ہو جاتے ہیں، تو ہم پیلے موونگ ایوریج کے قریب 0.6710 کی طرف واپس جا سکتے ہیں۔ یہ کہانی کا اختتام نہیں ہو گا۔ ممکن ہے کہ قیمت پھر پیلے رنگ کی حمایت کو توڑ دے اور اپنی کمی کو جاری رکھے، جس سے حمایت کی سطحوں کا از سر نو جائزہ لینا پڑے گا۔

اس وقت، میں اوپر کی طرف حرکت کو کم ممکن سمجھتا ہوں۔ تاہم، اگر AUD/USD جوڑی موجودہ مقامی بلند ترین سطح 0.6761 سے اوپر نکل جاتی ہے، تو میں فوراً داخل نہیں ہوں گا۔ اس کے بجائے، میں انتظار کروں گا کہ اوپر کی حرکت کی رفتار ختم ہونے کی علامتیں دیکھوں اور پھر فروخت کے مواقع تلاش کروں۔

آخر میں، آج بعد میں ایک اہم واقعہ اس کرنسی جوڑی پر خاصا اثر ڈال سکتا ہے۔ فیڈرل ریزرو کے سربراہ، جیروم پاول، ایک اور تقریر کریں گے۔ ان کے کل کے بیانات کے نتیجے میں امریکی ڈالر میں قابل ذکر مضبوطی آئی تھی۔ اگر وہ اپنی سود کی شرحوں کے بارے میں سخت موقف کو دہرائیں، یعنی وہ موجودہ اقتصادی حالات میں انہیں کم کرنے کے خواہاں نہیں ہیں، تو میری توقعات ہیں کہ AUD/USD میں کمی کے امکانات مزید مضبوط ہو جائیں گے۔ مختصر یہ کہ، اگرچہ AUD/USD اوپر کی طرف جا رہا ہے، موجودہ قیمت کی سطح، تکنیکی اشارے، اور پاول کی ممکنہ سختی فیڈ کی تقریر یہ سب ظاہر کرتے ہیں کہ مستقبل قریب میں نیچے کی طرف اصلاح زیادہ ممکن ہے۔ میں مارکیٹ میں داخل ہونے کے لیے ایک زیادہ موزوں لمحے کا انتظار کروں گا، یا تو ممکنہ بریک آؤٹ کے بعد فروخت کے اشارے دیکھ کر، یا قیمت کی پیلے موونگ ایوریج کی طرف واپسی کا فائدہ اٹھا کر۔

AUD/USD جوڑی اوپر کے رجحان میں ہے، Ichimoku کلاوڈ کے اوپر تجارت کر رہی ہے، جو کہ بُلش مومنٹم کی نشاندہی کرتی ہے۔ اوپر کی طرف اشارہ کرتا ہوا stochastic بھی خریداری کی حمایت کرتا ہے۔ جوڑی نے آج کے سیشن میں اپنی اضافہ جاری رکھا، واپسی کی سطح سے اوپر قائم رہا، اور اب 0.6741 پر تجارت کر رہا ہے۔ انٹراڈے ترقی کے اہداف کلاسک پیوٹ سطحوں کی مزاحمت ہیں۔ موجودہ سطحوں سے بڑھنے کا امکان ہے، پہلی مزاحمت کی سطح 0.6672 کے بریک ہونے کے ساتھ ہی، مزید مزاحمت کی لائن 0.6831 کے قریب مزید بڑھنے کی راہ ہموار ہوگی۔ اگر مارکیٹ میں کمی جاری رہی، تو حمایت کی سطح 0.6672 ریفرنس پوائنٹ ہوگی۔

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Halanki price sideways trading kar rahi hai, magar price ne dono ascending price channels aur weekly pivot level ko break kar diya hai. Is hafte ki trading ne ascending price channels ke andar shuru ki thi, jo pichle do hafton ke dauran price movement ka direction dikhati hai, lekin is hafte price direction badal sakti hai aur neeche ki taraf ja sakti hai. Price ab weekly support level 0.6510 ke qareeb hai, jo agle direction ko tay karega. Agar price is level se support le kar phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to selling retest pattern successful ho jayega. Agar price weekly pivot level par wapas aati hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to ise downward trend ke taur par samjha ja sakta hai.



Pichle do dinon mein, price ek upward trend ke sath price nucleus ke andar move kar rahi hai, jo aaj ki price movement ko dikhata hai. Price ne din ki shuruat mein support mila, lekin price channels ke middle line se resistance ka samna kiya, aur ab price un peak se neeche trade kar rahi hai jo middle line ne banayi thi. Isliye, price ke lower channel lines tak pahunchne ke baad wapas upar aane ki sambhavana hai.

Trade karne ke do tareeqay hain. Pehli surat mein, agar price channels ke bottom tak girti hai aur wahan se upar bounce karti hai, to bullish price action ban sakti hai. Is surat mein, aap channels ke middle line tak buy kar sakte hain. Jab price upar chadh kar last price peak ke upar trade karti hai, to yeh upward trend ke wapas aane ka signal hota hai.

Economic point of view se, psychological resistance level 0.6615 bulls ke liye ek legitimate target banega agar investors Japanese yen se haath uthate hain, jab tak Japanese market mein intervene nahi karte taake yen ke girne se roka ja sake.

AUD/USD pair ne intraday uptick ke baad 0.6540 region tak fresh sellers ko attract kiya aur Tuesday ke European session ke pehle half mein apne daily range ke lower end tak gir gaya. Spot prices abhi ke liye 0.6500 psychological mark ke aas paas trade kar rahe hain aur YTD low se Monday ko touch karne ke baad recovery move ko stall karte hue lag rahe hain.
Australian Dollar (AUD) ko Tuesday ko thoda lift mila jab Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne interest rates unchanged rakha aur indicate kiya ke policy restrictive hi rahegi inflation ke still sticky hone ke wake mein. RBA Governor Michele Bullock ne outlook ko reaffirm kiya, kehkar ke inflation ko target tak lautne mein bahut zyada waqt lag sakta hai aur interest rates ko extended period tak higher rehne ki zaroorat ho sakti hai. Iske saath, global equity markets mein positive turnaround ne AUD/USD pair ko thoda support diya.

Iske bawajood, economic downturn ke concerns kisi bhi further appreciating move ko lid laga rahe hain China-proxy Aussie ke liye. Iske alawa, US Dollar (USD) demand mein ek achi pickup, US Treasury bond yields mein solid bounce se bolstered, aur AUD/USD pair ke upside ko cap karne mein contribute karte hain. Iske saath, Middle East mein geopolitical tensions ke further escalation ka risk prudent banaata hai strong follow-through buying ka intezar karna pehle ke spot prices near-term bottom ko confirm karte hain.

Tuesday ka US economic docket sirf Trade Balance data ka release feature karta hai, jo USD ko US bond yields ke raham par chhodta hai. Iske alawa, broader risk sentiment near-term USD price dynamics ko influence karne mein key role play karega aur AUD/USD pair ko Chinese Trade Balance data ke aane wale Asian session se pehle kuch impetus provide karega.

Kal AUD-USD mein ek bohat dilchasp movement tha, jahan ek bearish movement shuru hui jo bohat taqatwar thi, phir tezi se rukh badal kar ek bullish movement shuru hui jo bhi taqatwar thi aur almost same size ki thi, is wajah se kal ki daily candle mein ek lamba neecha shadow tha, jo bearish trend ki saturation ka ishara tha.

Maine H4 timeframe ki technical analysis dekhi aur tasveer bhi banayi hai, jahan trend ab bhi bearish nazar aa raha hai, isliye jo bullish movement hua hai wo temporary correction ki taraf ja raha hai, jiska matlab hai ab tak bullish movement ne MA 50 ko break nahi kiya hai jo lowest dynamic resistance level hai, ya phir yeh rejection ka jawab bhi de sakta hai, lekin kyunki AUD-USD ka movement abhi MA 50 ke qareeb hai, iska potential hai ke yeh phir se bullish ho kar MA 50 ko break kare.

Mera prediction hai ke AUD-USD ka movement bearish trend mein wapas jane ka zyada potential rakhta hai, isliye main AUD-USD par sell entry ka moment dhundne mein zyada dilchaspi rakhta hoon, MA 50 ke neeche ek significant bearish movement ka wait kar raha hoon, kyun ke mera khayal hai ke yeh moment AUD-USD ke normal bearish trend mein wapas jane ka confirmation hoga aur aur bhi bearish movement ko trigger karne ka potential rakhta hai, jahan bearish target horizontal line support level 0.6437 ho sakta hai.

H1 timeframe monitoring jari rakhta hoon, aur jab main trendline draw karta hoon, to lagta hai ke AUDUSD ke price ab bhi bearish category mein hai, isliye agar upward bounce kaafi taqatwar hai, to bhi yeh apne closest resistance ke neeche hai. Isliye do possibilities ho sakti hain, pehli possibility yeh hai ke AUDUSD ke price neeche bounce kar ke aur nichle bearish trend ko continue kare. Jabki dusri possibility yeh hai ke AUDUSD ke price mein izafa ho jo ke uske closest resistance ke upar penetrate kar ke ek upward breakout ko la sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein bearish trend dikhaya hai, aur iska value ab 0.6531 hai. Yeh downtrend dheere dheere chal raha hai, jo mukhtalif economic aur geopolitical factors ko reflect karta hai. Is dheere movement ke bawajood, mujhe lagta hai ke AUD/USD pair agle kuch dinon mein significant movement ke liye tayar hai. Yeh analysis technical indicators, economic data, aur market sentiment ke combination par mabni hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke pair ek critical point ke qareeb hai jo ek notable shift lead kar sakta hai.

### Technical Analysis

Technical perspective se, AUD/USD pair key moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo bearish trend ka strong indicator hai. 50-day moving average filhal 200-day moving average ke upar hai, jo yeh signal karta hai ke short-term trend long-term trend se kamzor hai. Iske ilawa, Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke aas-paas hai, jo suggest karta hai ke pair ko ek correction ya reversal ki zarurat ho sakti hai.

Moreover, pair daily chart par lower highs aur lower lows form kar raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. 0.6500 ke aas-paas support levels crucial hain; agar pair is level ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh selling ka wave trigger kar sakta hai, jo zyada significant decline ki taraf lead kar sakta hai. Iske bar'aks, agar yeh level se bounce karta hai, to yeh recovery ki shuruat ka indication ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar yeh increase trading volume ke sath ho.

### Economic Factors

Australian economy kuch challenges ka saamna kar rahi hai, jo Australian dollar ki weakness mein contribute kar rahe hain. US aur China ke darmiyan ongoing trade tensions ne Australian economy par negative impact dala hai. In trade talks ka kisi bhi resolution ya escalation se AUD/USD pair par significant asar ho sakta hai.

Iske ilawa, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne dovish stance maintain kiya hai, economic growth ko support karne ke liye interest rates ko low rakha hai. Lekin, kuch expectations hain ke RBA aur bhi rate cuts kar sakta hai agar economic conditions improve nahi hoti. Aisa move additional downward pressure dal sakta hai Australian dollar par.

Iske muqablay, US Federal Reserve zyada hawkish raha hai, inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barha raha hai. RBA aur Fed ke darmiyan yeh divergence in monetary policies ne AUD/USD ke bearish trend ko significant impact diya hai. Agar Fed apni rate hikes continue karta hai, to US dollar aur bhi strong ho sakta hai Australian dollar ke muqablay.

### Market Sentiment

Market sentiment bhi currency pair ke movements mein important role play karta hai. Filhal, Australian dollar ke towards sentiment kaafi bearish hai due to aforementioned economic factors. Lekin, market sentiment tezi se badal sakta hai naye data ya geopolitical developments ke base par.

For instance, agar Chinese economy ke baare mein positive news aati hai to Australian dollar ko boost mil sakta hai, given ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan close economic ties hain. Similarly, agar US economy mein slowdown ke signs milte hain to US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo AUD/USD pair ko support de sakta hai.

### Potential Scenarios

1. **Bearish Scenario**: Agar AUD/USD pair 0.6500 support level ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh significant decline lead kar sakta hai. Is scenario mein, traders agla major support level 0.6400 ko target karenge. Yeh movement Australian economy ke further deterioration, RBA ke additional rate cuts, ya US dollar ke continued strength ki wajah se ho sakta hai.

2. **Bullish Scenario**: Bar'aks, agar pair 0.6500 par strong support paata hai aur bounce karta hai, to yeh recovery ki shuruat ka indication ho sakta hai. Agar yeh 0.6600 ke upar sustain hota hai, to buyers attract ho sakte hain, jo pair ko 0.6700 level ki taraf push kar sakte hain. Yeh scenario positive economic data from Australia, Fed ke dovish shift, ya global risk sentiment ke improvement se trigger ho sakta hai.

### Conclusion

AUD/USD pair filhal bearish trend mein hai, aur market dheere dheere move kar raha hai. Lekin, kuch factors suggest karte hain ke ek significant movement imminent ho sakta hai. Technical indicators reversal ya continued decline ki possibility ko point out karte hain, jo depend karta hai ke pair key support levels ko hold kar pata hai ya nahi. Economic factors, khaaskar RBA aur Fed ke policies, bhi pair ke direction determine karne mein crucial role play karenge. Aakhir mein, market sentiment, jo global economic developments se influence hota hai, rapid changes lead kar sakta hai pair ke movement mein. Isliye, traders ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur AUD/USD pair mein potential volatility ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye agle kuch dinon mein.

timeframe ke price chart analysis ke mutabiq, hum dekhte hain ke linear regression channel ka positive slope hai, jo market mein buyers ka dominant asar dikhata hai. Yeh kharidari ke mauqe paida kar sakta hai, magar kharidari ka faisla karne se pehle intezar karein jab tak upper H4 timeframe par linear regression channel bhi upar ki taraf move kare. Main 0.65504 level se kharidari ke imkaan par gaur kar raha hoon, magar main sellers ki dynamics ko monitor karunga, jo is level ke neechay price ko lower kar sakte hain. Agar yeh hota hai aur price 0.65504 ke neechay stable hoti hai, to yeh upper H4 timeframe mein selling trend ke jaari rehne ka ishaara ho sakta hai. Yahan, main kharidari ka faisla mulatvi karunga jab tak buyers ke taraf market sentiment ke tabdeel hone ka confirmation 0.65660 level ke upar price fixing se na ho jaye. Main 4-ghantay ke chart par market data analyze kar raha hoon. Filhal, main market mein ek strong bearish trend dekh raha hoon. Mera plan hai ke jab price channel ke upper border 0.65660 par pohanchay to dekhu. Jab main yeh note karoon, to main asset ko 0.64966 level tak bechnay ka mauqa dhoondunga. Agar price profitable level ko break karti hai, to yeh downward journey jaari rehne ka signal hoga. Magar, mujhe pata hai ke uske baad ek upward correction ho sakta hai, isliye market ko monitor karna zaroori hai aur bulls se likely reaction ke liye tayar rehna. Main apna plan tabdeel karne ke liye hamesha tayar rehta hoon agar market situation badalti hai, kyun ke yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke agar 0.65660 level bulls ke zariye break hota hai, to yeh market mein bullish interest ka sign ho sakta hai, jo situation ko dubara evaluate karne aur sales cancel karne ko zaroori bana sakta hai. Main hamesha changing market situation ko follow karta hoon aur agar situation zaroori ho to plan ko tabdeel karne ke liye tayar rehta hoon. Mera goal maximum profit hasil karna hai, aur iske liye main market mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ke liye tayar hoon.

Mujhe lagta hai ke hum abhi tak daily chart par Fibonacci grid ke 161.8 ke aakhri target tak nahi pohnche hain. Magar is ke ilawa humein dobara enter karne ka mauka mil raha hai, pehle 0.6570 tak ki significant corrections hui, aur phir hum 90 points gire, jo ke fans ke liye kaafi interesting hona chahiye. Agle hafte hum expect karte hain ke hum 0.6435 tak girein ge, jo ke current se kam az kam 70 points ka difference hai bina InstaForex spread ko consider kiye. Intraday pivots sirf humein general working range dikhayenge jo hum use karenge. Kal subah mein is par zyada focus karne ki koshish karunga. Fundamentals ke mutabiq, economic calendar mein sirf USA ke events scheduled hain jo ke 3 star category ke hain, 16:45 aur 17:00 par - "Purchasing Managers' Index for Non-Manufacturing Sector aur Business Activity Index Services Sector". Australia se koi interesting offer nahi hai.
Sideways trading ke bawajood, price ne ascending price channels aur weekly pivot level dono ko tor diya. Is haftay trading ascending price channels ke andar shuru hui jo pichle do hafton ke price movement ka direction represent karte hain, lekin is hafte price direction downside ki taraf badal sakti hai. Price weekly support level 0.6510 ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo agle direction ko determine karegi. Agar price is level se support leti hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to selling retest pattern successful ho gaya. Agar price wapas weekly pivot level par aati hai aur phir se neeche bounce karti hai, to ise downward trend consider kiya ja sakta hai.

Pichle do dinon mein, price ne ek price nucleus ke andar upward trend ke saath move kiya, jo aaj ke price movement ko represent karta hai. Price ne din ke aaghaz par support liya lekin middle line of the price channels se resistance face kiya, aur ab price us peak ke neeche trade kar rahi hai jo middle line of the price channels se form hua tha. Is liye, price ka lower channel lines tak pohnchne ka kaafi chance hai phir wapas upar jane se pehle.

Pair ko trade karne ke do tareeqe hain. Pehle case mein, price channels ke bottom tak girti hai aur phir wapas top tak bounce karti hai, jo ek bullish price action banati hai. Is case mein aap middle line of the channels tak buy kar sakte hain. Jab price rise hoti hai aur last price peak ke upar trade karti hai, to ye ek upward trend ke return ko indicate karti hai. Economics ke hawale se, psychological resistance 0.6615 bulls ke legitimate target ko serve karega agar investors Japanese yen ko chhod dete hain jab tak Japanese market mein dubara intervene na karein taake Japanese currency ko aur collapse hone se bachaya ja sake.