جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

### GBP/USD Trading Analysis
Hello dosto, aap kaise hain? GBP/USD ne Thursday ko European trading hours mein apni girawat ko 1.3100 tak extend kiya. Yeh pair BoE ke governor Andrew Bailey ke sakht comments ke baad neeche aaya, jinhon ne kaha ke agar inflation kum hota hai to central bank rate cuts mein "zyada active" ho sakta hai. Middle East ke concerns ki wajah se risk aversion bhi is pair par asar daal raha hai. 4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne subah 20 ke neeche girawat dekhi, jo GBP/USD ke liye oversold conditions ko darshata hai.

Agar yeh pair kisi technical correction ki taraf jata hai, to pehla resistance 1.3175 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) hoga, jo ke 1.3200 tak ja sakta hai, jahan 200-period simple moving average hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3100 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) agla support hai, jo ke 1.3050 aur 1.3000 ke static levels se pehle hai. GBP/USD par bohot zyada bearish pressure tha aur yeh Thursday ki subah 1.3100 ke aas-paas gaya. Yeh teen hafton mein iska sabse kam level hai. Aane wale waqt mein technical analysis oversold conditions ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, lekin pair ko decisive correction karna mushkil ho sakta hai.

US dollar ne apni taqat ko barkarar rakha aur Wednesday ko GBP/USD ko peeche rakha jab Automatic Data Processing ke zariye private sector employment ka data aaya, jo 143,000 tha, jo ke market ki expectations 120,000 se zyada hai. Guardian newspaper ke saath interview mein, Bank of England ke governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha ke agar inflation ke baare mein achhi khabrein aati hain to wo rate cuts mein thoda zyada proactive ho sakte hain. In comments ne Thursday ki subah pound sterling mein sell-off ka sabab bana.

GBP ki kamzori ko darshate hue, EUR/GBP pair din bhar mein 1% se zyada barh gaya. Baad mein, US economic calendar par weekly initial jobless claims aur September ISM services PMI data release hoga. Markets ko umeed hai ke pehli baar jobless benefits ke liye claims 220,000 tak pahunch sakte hain, jo pichle hafte ke 218,000 se thoda zyada hai. Agar yeh figure 200,000 ya isse neeche aata hai to USD ko support milega aur pair par aur pressure aayega. Agar ISM ka headline unexpected taur par 50 se neeche aata hai, to yeh bhi market par asar daal sakta hai.

haftay ke akhri market mein GBP/JPY ka bullish movement ne horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ko break kar diya, jo ke ek trend reversal ka indication tha. Bullish power ne GBP/JPY pair mein bhi zyada strength dikhai, jo kay chand dino tak barh rahi thi. MA 200 ke against ek breakout moment bhi nazar aya, jo ke bullish power ki ahmiyat mein izafa ka tasdeeq kar raha tha. GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziada significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziada significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein.
GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil sake.
Bank of England ka apni September meeting mein interest rates ko hold par rakhne ka faisla (8-to-1 vote ke sath) sterling ko mazeed support de raha hai. Yeh faisla baqi central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha, jo ke global inflationary pressures ke kam honay par adopt kiye gaye hain. Iske ilawa, BoE ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments jo ke zyadatar restrictions ko baray arsay tak barqarar rakhne ke haq mein thay, ne sterling ki position ko mazid mazbooti di.

GBP/JPY currency pair ke H1 time frame par din bhar ki kharidari ke liye, 156.200 aur 156.340 ke sahara darjaton par tajweez hai ke istemal karein, jo intehai tehqiqat ke saath munfarid hain. In trades ka maqsad 157.500 par rakha gaya hai, jisse munafa hasil karne ka wazeh maqsad milta hai. Is ke ilawa, 155.795 par stop-loss lagana risk ko manage karne aur bade nuqsaan se bachne mein madad deta hai. Is mazbooti se nizam ko behtar banane ke liye, traders technical indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages, aur Bollinger Bands ke saath mukhtasar mukhtasar tashreehat bhi faraham kar sakte hain. Agar RSI sahara darjaton ke qareeb overbought ilaqon mein hai, to yeh ek kharidari trade mein dakhil hone ka faisla sath sath faraham karta hai. Isi tarah, agar qeemat aik moving average ke qareeb hai jo qadeem taur par sahara ka kaam karta hai, to yeh trade setup par mazeed aitmaad faraham kar sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, traders ko keemat ki harkat ko qareeb se nazar andaz nahi karna chahiye jab yeh sahara darjaton ke qareeb hoti hai. Candlestick patterns jaise ke bullish engulfing patterns, hammer, ya doji sahara darjaton ke qareeb pehle signs faraham kar sakte hain ek mozu ulte ka. Ye patterns aksar yeh batate hain ke bechne ki dabao kam ho rahi hai aur kharidari ka dil nikal raha hai, jo sahara darjaton ko zyada pakka banata hai. Ikhtitam mein, GBP/JPY currency pair ke H1 time frame par din bhar ki kharidari ke liye, 156.200 ka pehla sahara darja aur 156.340 ka doosra sahara darja par kharidari ko ghor kiya ja sakta hai, ek maqsad 157.500 par aur ek 155.795 par stop loss se, aik achhi seerat ka nizam ho sakta hai. Ye tareeqa maqami dakhil hone ke nuktae nazar ko jama karta hai, aik wazeh maqsad, aur sound risk management. Magar, market ki haalaat ke mutalliq maloomat haasil rakhna aur technical analysis tools ka istemal karke tradeon mein kamiyabi ke ihtimam ko barqarar rakhna ahem hai. Is tarah se, traders apne chances ko barhane mein kamiyabi ke imkaanat ko barha sakte hain jabke apne

GBP/JPY) ne hal hi mein hui girawat ke baad ek hairan kun wapsi ki hai. Thursday ke trading session mein pound ne wapas 203.00 ka aham mark paar kiya, aur kabhi kabhi 204.00 tak bhi pahunch gaya. Yeh turnaround Japanese authorities ki mudakhlat ke andazay ke darmiyan aaya. Halanki Bank of Japan (BOJ) aur Ministry of Finance (MOF) ne apni mudakhlat ka rasmi taur par tasdeeq nahi ki, magar BOJ ke mali operations ka surge forecasts ke muqablay mein unki stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de raha hai. Kamzor hoti hui yen ko defend karna MOF ke liye mazeed mehnga pad raha hai. Wahin, maqami economic data releases milay julay signals de rahi hain. Thursday ko release hui UK ki average data ne expectations ko meet kiya, magar market forecasts predict kar rahe hain ke aanay wali British retail sales mein 0.4% ka decline hoga, jo pehlay ke 2.9% increase ke mukable mein kaafi baray contrast mein hai. Japan ki national CPI inflation figures bhi Friday ko release hongi. Halanki inflation pehle ke release se zyada hone ki umeed hai, yeh shayad BOJ ko apni ultra-loose monetary policy se hattne par majboor na kar sake. Yeh, aur yen ki pehlay se hi kamzor position doosri baray currencies ke muqable mein, Japanese currency ke mazeed depreciation ko suggest karte hain. Technical indicators aik zyada complex picture paint kar rahe hain. "Peacock Fish Index" (mungkin GBP/JPY ke liye) ne Thursday ko 202.50 ke qareeb support find kiya, jo ek potential bounce ka ishara hai. Magar, price apni 200-hour moving average (EMA) of 204.82 ke niche hai, jo ager selling pressure resume hoti hai toh mazeed decline ka room suggest karta hai. Daily chart kuch umeed deti hai, price 50-day moving average of 201.38 ke upar hold karti hui hai. Mazeed, long-term 200-day moving average of 192.18 se kafi upar bids (offers to buy) hain, jo underlying buying interest ko indicate karti hain. Nateejatan, GBP/JPY ek volatile phase mein hai. Halanki pound ne kuch resilience dikhayi hai, yen ki kamzori aur Japanese authorities ki potential intervention pair ke future direction par uncertainty daalti hain. Aanay walay dino mein Friday ke economic data releases aur technical analysis key factors honge dekhne ke liye.

UK Construction Sector
Reaches Historic Highs

UK construction sector apni tareekhi bulandiyon par pohanch gaya hai, jaisa ke Standard & Poor's Global ke aakhri data se zahir hota hai. July 2024 ka Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 55.3 tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ke market expectations 52.7 aur June ka figure 52.2 se kaafi zyada hai. Yeh izafa construction sector mein aik zabardast tosee ko darshata hai aur yeh pichlay paanch months se lagataar barh raha hai. July mein jo growth hui hai, yeh May 2022 ke baad se sab se zyada hai.

**July ki Performance se kuch ahem nuqaat:**

Is mahine ki performance ka aik khas pehlu housing projects ka doobara ubharna aur commercial activity mein izafa hai. Iske ilawa, civil engineering mein bhi aik saal aur cheh maheenon ka sab se bara izafa dekha gaya hai. Iss dauran, construction activity aur nai orders mein khaasi barhoti hui hai, jo purchasing activity aur rozgar mein barhoti ka sabab bani hai, aur yeh silsila pichlay teen mah se jari hai.

Construction sector mein barhti hui demand ne supply chains par bhi kaafi dabbao dala hai, jiski wajah se input costs mein tez izafa dekhne ko mila. Magar, sector ka overall performance mazboot raha hai, jo aglay maheenon mein growth ka positive outlook pesh karta hai.

**Financial Overview: Bond Yields aur Market Reactions:**

Financial side par, British 10-year Treasury bond yields mein izafa hua hai, jo pichlay chay maheenon ke low se upar aya hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury notes ka yield 3.74% se barh kar taqreeban 3.9% tak pohanch gaya hai. Yeh izafa U.S. services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve ke policymakers ke comments ki wajah se hai, jo pehlay market losses ko mitigate karne mein madadgar rahe hain.

**Currency Market Dynamics: GBP/JPY Trading:**

Currency market mein, traders GBP/JPY pair mein selling opportunities dekh rahe hain. Agar 199.50 level se neeche girawat hoti hai to aik short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar sakta hai, aur downside target 194.00 ka ho sakta hai. Achi trading strategy yeh hai ke 194.76 par aadhi position close kar ke profits secure kar lein, jab ke mazid girawat ki gunjaish bhi chhor dein.

**Forex Trading Strategies ka Tabaadla:**

Main aik tajriba kaar forex trader hoon, jo das saal se ziada market mein kaam kar raha hai, aur pichlay do saal mein maine kuch key strategies discover ki hain jo main aap sab ke saath share karna chahta hoon. Main apna technical analysis is forum mein pesh karunga aur aap sab ke tajurbaat aur suggestions ki tehqiq karunga taake hum apni trading strategies ko behtari ki janib le ja sakein. Mil kar hum aik collaborative approach apna sakte hain apne analysis ko refine karne ke liye

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level

## GBPUSD PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS

**ASSALAM-O-ALAIKUM DOSTO!**
Aaj hum GBPUSD currency pair ke price action ka tajziya karenge. Ab tak, humne dekha ke price ne ek pehli uptrend experience kiya, jo ke sab se nazdeek ke resistance area tak pahuncha. Lekin, aaj ka price action phir se bearish movement ki taraf shift hota nazar aa raha hai. Mere khayal se, price shayad girti rahegi jab tak yeh nazdeek ke support area tak nahi pahuncha.

**H4 TIME FRAME**
H4 (four-hour) time frame par, hum dekh sakte hain ke dopahar ke aas-paas price movement phir se bearish ho gaya hai aur EMA (Exponential Moving Average) line ki taraf ja raha hai. Jaise ke humein pata hai, agar candlestick movement EMA line ke upar hoti hai, to yeh buyers ke liye ek positive signal hai.

**BULLISH TREND MEIN RESISTANCE**
Lekin, yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke bullish trend ke bawajood, kabhi kabhi price struggle ya resistance ka samna karti hai. Agar GBPUSD currency pair 1.331xx ke aas-paas ke correction support level ko todti hai, to yeh mazeed neeche ki taraf movement ka ishara ho sakta hai. Humein double top pattern par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye. Agar 1.331xx support level break hota hai, to yeh sell signal ko darshata hai aur price ko agle support area 1.324xx tak le ja sakta hai. Isliye, aaj position lene se pehle ek zyada accurate signal ka intezar karna behtar hoga.

**UPSIDE POTENTIAL**
Dusri taraf, agar price upar ki taraf move kare aur 1.342xx ke aas-paas ke resistance area ko todti hai, to yeh buy opportunity ka signal hoga. Filhal, price nazdeek ke support aur resistance levels ke darmiyan fluctuating hai, isliye position lene mein jaldbazi na karna zaroori hai. Agar 1.331xx support break hota hai, to yeh ek clear sell signal hai. Wahi agar 1.342xx resistance break hota hai, to yeh buy signal darshata hai.

**CONCLUSION**
Aakhir mein, aaj sabr karna zaroori hai. Kisi bhi action lene se pehle support ya resistance levels ke confirmed break ka intezar karna behtar hai. GBPUSD pair filhal ek critical zone mein hai, aur traders ko apne agle moves karne mein ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Agar 1.331xx support ke neeche break hota hai, to yeh bearish trend ka ishara hai, jabke 1.342xx resistance ke upar break hone se bullish position ke liye mauqe khulte hain.

### GBP/USD ki Halat aur Bazari Asar

Hello doston, aap kaise hain? GBP/USD ne Thursday ko European trading hours mein apni girawat ko 1.3100 tak badha diya. Yeh jori BoE ke governor Andrew Bailey ke sakht bayanat ke peechay hai, jinhon ne kaha ke agar mehngai kam hoti hai to central bank "zyada active" rate cuts par ja sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Middle East ke masail ki wajah se khatrey ki wajah se bhi is jori par asar pada hai. 4-ghante ke chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne 20 se neeche gir gaya, jo GBP/USD ke liye oversold halat ko darshata hai.

Agar yeh jori kisi technical correction ka samna karti hai, to 1.3175 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) pehla resistance ban sakta hai, us ke baad 1.3200 hai jahan 200-period simple moving average hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3100 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) agla support hai, is ke baad 1.3050 aur 1.3000 ka static level hai. GBP/USD ne Thursday ki subah 1.3100 ki taraf girne ka intense bearish pressure mehsoos kiya, jo pichle teen hafton ka sab se kam darja hai. Qareeb ki technical approach oversold halat ko darshata hai, lekin jori ko faislaykunch correction karna mushkil ho sakta hai.

US dollar ne apni taqat barqarar rakhi aur Wednesday ko GBP/USD ko peeche dhakel diya, jab Automatic Data Processing ne khudra sector ki rozgar ki report di jo ke 143,000 barh gayi, jo ke bazar ki umeed se zyada thi (120,000). Bank of England ke governor Andrew Bailey ne Guardian akhbar se guftagu karte hue kaha ke agar mehngai ke baare mein aur achi khabrein aati hain to wo rate cuts mein thoda proactive ho sakte hain. In bayanat ne Thursday ki subah pound sterling mein girawat ka sabab bana.

GBP ki kamzori ko darshate hue, EUR/GBP jori is din 1% se zyada barh gayi hai. Din ke baad, US economic calendar par hafte ke shuruati jobless claims aur September ISM services PMI data ka elan hoga. Bazar umeed karta hai ke pehli martaba jobless benefits ke liye claims 220,000 tak pahunch sakte hain, jo pichle hafte ke 218,000 se thoda zyada hai. Agar ye 200,000 ya us se neeche aata hai to USD ko faida ho sakta hai aur jori par zyada asar kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar ISM ka headline 50 se neeche aata hai to yeh bhi market par asar daal sakta hai.

JPY ne haal hi mein kafi utar chadhav dekha hai, jo ke aham economic events ka nateeja hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho

haftay ke akhri market mein GBP/JPY ka bullish movement ne horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ko break kar diya, jo ke ek trend reversal ka indication tha. Bullish power ne GBP/JPY pair mein bhi zyada strength dikhai, jo kay chand dino tak barh rahi thi. MA 200 ke against ek breakout moment bhi nazar aya, jo ke bullish power ki ahmiyat mein izafa ka tasdeeq kar raha tha. GBP/JPY ka movement MA 200 se kaafi upar tha, jo ke ek aur zyada ahmiyat wala bullish trend ka ishara de raha tha. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein is strength aur trend ko monitor karna dilchasp hoga. Mera andaza hai ke ye barhti hui power aur reversal moment aage chal kar ek aur ziada significant bullish movement ko janam de sakti hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke bullish movement ka ye significant power agle hafte ke aaghaz mein barqarar rahe. Horizontal line resistance level 191.56 ka break hona ye tasdeeq karta hai ke GBP/JPY apne bullish trend ko aur ziada significant tor pe barqarar rakhega. Is waqt tak, bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein. GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil

GBP/JPY) ne hal hi mein hui girawat ke baad ek hairan kun wapsi ki hai. Thursday ke trading session mein pound ne wapas 203.00 ka aham mark paar kiya, aur kabhi kabhi 204.00 tak bhi pahunch gaya. Yeh turnaround Japanese authorities ki mudakhlat ke andazay ke darmiyan aaya. Halanki Bank of Japan (BOJ) aur Ministry of Finance (MOF) ne apni mudakhlat ka rasmi taur par tasdeeq nahi ki, magar BOJ ke mali operations ka surge forecasts ke muqablay mein unki stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de raha hai. Kamzor hoti hui yen ko defend karna MOF ke liye mazeed mehnga pad raha hai. Wahin, maqami economic data releases milay julay signals de rahi hain. Thursday ko release hui UK ki average data ne expectations ko meet kiya, magar market forecasts predict kar rahe hain ke aanay wali British retail sales mein 0.4% ka decline hoga, jo pehlay ke 2.9% increase ke mukable mein kaafi baray contrast mein hai. Japan ki national CPI inflation figures bhi Friday ko release hongi. Halanki inflation pehle ke release se zyada hone ki umeed hai, yeh shayad BOJ ko apni ultra-loose monetary policy se hattne par majboor na kar sake. Yeh, aur yen ki pehlay se hi kamzor position doosri baray currencies ke muqable mein, Japanese currency ke mazeed depreciation ko suggest karte hain. Technical indicators aik zyada complex picture paint kar rahe hain. "Peacock Fish Index" (mungkin GBP/JPY ke liye) ne Thursday ko 202.50 ke qareeb support find kiya, jo ek potential bounce ka ishara hai. Magar, price apni 200-hour moving average (EMA) of 204.82 ke niche hai, jo ager selling pressure resume hoti hai toh mazeed decline ka room suggest karta hai. Daily chart kuch umeed deti hai, price 50-day moving average of 201.38 ke upar hold karti hui hai. Mazeed, long-term 200-day moving average of 192.18 se kafi upar bids (offers to buy) hain, jo underlying buying interest ko indicate karti hain. Nateejatan, GBP/JPY ek volatile phase mein hai. Halanki pound ne kuch resilience dikhayi hai, yen ki kamzori aur Japanese authorities ki potential intervention pair ke future direction par uncertainty daalti hain. Aanay walay dino mein Friday ke economic data releases aur technical analysis key factors honge dekhne ke liye.

UK Construction Sector
Reaches Historic Highs

UK construction sector apni tareekhi bulandiyon par pohanch gaya hai, jaisa ke Standard & Poor's Global ke aakhri data se zahir hota hai. July 2024 ka Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 55.3 tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ke market expectations 52.7 aur June ka figure 52.2 se kaafi zyada hai. Yeh izafa construction sector mein aik zabardast tosee ko darshata hai aur yeh pichlay paanch months se lagataar barh raha hai. July mein jo growth hui hai, yeh May 2022 ke baad se sab se zyada hai.

**July ki Performance se kuch ahem nuqaat:**

Is mahine ki performance ka aik khas pehlu housing projects ka doobara ubharna aur commercial activity mein izafa hai. Iske ilawa, civil engineering mein bhi aik saal aur cheh maheenon ka sab se bara izafa dekha gaya hai. Iss dauran, construction activity aur nai orders mein khaasi barhoti hui hai, jo purchasing activity aur rozgar mein barhoti ka sabab bani hai, aur yeh silsila pichlay teen mah se jari hai.

Construction sector mein barhti hui demand ne supply chains par bhi kaafi dabbao dala hai, jiski wajah se input costs mein tez izafa dekhne ko mila. Magar, sector ka overall performance mazboot raha hai, jo aglay maheenon mein growth ka positive outlook pesh karta hai.

**Financial Overview: Bond Yields aur Market Reactions:**

Financial side par, British 10-year Treasury bond yields mein izafa hua hai, jo pichlay chay maheenon ke low se upar aya hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury notes ka yield 3.74% se barh kar taqreeban 3.9% tak pohanch gaya hai. Yeh izafa U.S. services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve ke policymakers ke comments ki wajah se hai, jo pehlay market losses ko mitigate karne mein madadgar rahe hain.

**Currency Market Dynamics: GBP/JPY Trading:**

Currency market mein, traders GBP/JPY pair mein selling opportunities dekh rahe hain. Agar 199.50 level se neeche girawat hoti hai to aik short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar sakta hai, aur downside target 194.00 ka ho sakta hai. Achi trading strategy yeh hai ke 194.76 par aadhi position close kar ke profits secure kar lein, jab ke mazid girawat ki gunjaish bhi chhor dein.

**Forex Trading Strategies ka Tabaadla:**

Main aik tajriba kaar forex trader hoon, jo das saal se ziada market mein kaam kar raha hai, aur pichlay do saal mein maine kuch key strategies discover ki hain jo main aap sab ke saath share karna chahta hoon. Main apna technical analysis is forum mein pesh karunga aur aap sab ke tajurbaat aur suggestions ki tehqiq karunga taake hum apni trading strategies ko behtari ki janib le ja sakein. Mil kar hum aik collaborative approach apna sakte hain apne analysis ko refine karne ke liye

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY Analysis Update - August 10, 2024
Overview:

Aaj ki analysis ke mutabiq, guzishta Friday ko kisi high-impact data ka afsa nahi tha, lekin market ne relatively flat movement dikhayi. EUR/USD currency pair lagbhag 187.05 ke aas paas raha. GBP/JPY ne apni opening price se neeche close kiya, jo ke is currency pair ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. Shuruaat mein GBP/JPY ne 187.28 ke qareebi resistance ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin yeh movement zyada der tak barqarar na reh saka.

Market Trends:

Aane wale haftay mein strong indications hain ke GBP/JPY bullish trend ko continue kar sakta hai. Halanke kai momentum factors hain jo GBP/JPY ko neeche le jaane ki koshish karenge, lekin yeh movements ek corrective phase ho sakti hain, na ke puri tarah se ek reversal.

Resistance Levels:

H1 (one-hour) timeframe ke perspective se dekha jaye, agar GBP/JPY 187.29 ke resistance ko break kar leta hai, to yeh is baat ki nishani hogi ke upward trend abhi bhi barqarar hai. Lekin yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke currency pair ne haal hi mein ek significant decline dekha hai. Phir bhi, aakhri kuch dinon mein overall movement upside ki taraf rahi hai. Agar larger timeframe par dekha jaye, to ek bullish engulfing pattern ki confirmation candle mojood hai, jo ke market reversal ka ishara karti hai. Jab tak demand area 180.94 ke aas paas barqarar hai, mujhe lagta hai ke upward movement ke chances kaafi high hain. Mere andazay ke mutabiq, GBP/JPY eventually 205.46 tak jaa sakta hai.

Ichimoku Indicator Analysis:

Ichimoku indicator ka istemal karte hue humne dekha ke kal decline aya tha; shuruaat mein candle tenkan-sen aur kijun-sen lines ke upar thi lekin ab neeche aa gayi hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke Monday ko GBP/JPY ka movement bearish ho sakta hai aur yeh 184.48 ke support ko test kar sakta hai. Agar GBP/JPY is support level ko break karne mein nakam hota hai, to yeh possibility hai ke price wahan se rebound kar jaye.

Stochastic Indicator Analysis:

Stochastic indicator ko dekhte hue, humne dekha ke line apne lowest level ke qareeb 80 par hover kar rahi hai, lekin ab upar ki taraf angle kar rahi hai. Yeh indicate karta hai ke GBP/JPY aane wale dinon mein upar jaa sakta hai. Halanke agar direction achanak neeche ki taraf shift hoti hai, to GBP/JPY 184.48 ke support level ki taraf ja sakta hai.

Conclusion:

Aaj ki analysis se yeh baat samajh aati hai ke GBP/JPY currency pair abhi bhi upward movement ki potential rakhta hai, kyunke demand area 180.94 ke aas paas stable hai. Isliye, mein traders ko suggest karta hoon ke wo buying positions par focus karein. Take-profit ka target 199.01 ke resistance level ke qareeb rakha jaa sakta hai, aur stop-loss 183.69 ke support level par position kiya jaaye.

haal hi mein kafi utar chadhav dekha hai, jo ke aham economic events ka nateeja hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna z