جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY Ka Tajziya

GBP/JPY pair ne 2024 ke lowest levels se aik khaas upward move kiya hai jab aik key policymaker ne ishara diya ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) shayad mazeed interest rate hikes ko rok day, wajah yen ki July mein sharp girawat aur halaat ki global markets mein recent volatility thi. Aetabar ke qabil currency trading platforms ke mutabiq, Uchida Shunichi ke comments ke baad GBP/JPY pair mein 2% se zyada ka izafa dekha gaya. Uchida ne Hakodate mein baat karte hue kaha ke Japan ki economy abhi aise maqam par nahi hai ke jahan BoJ ko rates barhane ki zarurat ho, jab tak ke economy ek khaas raftar se grow na kare. Unhone yeh bhi wazeh kiya ke BoJ rates ko nahi barhaye gi agar financial aur capital markets unstable rehtay hain.

Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko doosri martaba interest rates ko barhaya tha aur is baat ka ishara diya tha ke agar inflation aur economic growth unki expectations ke mutabiq rahi to agle chand maheenon mein future hikes ho sakti hain. Is qadam, 11 July ke official intervention ke sath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke izafa ne carry trade ka rukh palat diya—ek strategy jisme investors yen udhaar lete hain taake unko zyada yielding assets mein invest kar sakein, jo pehle yen par kafi pressure dal rahi thi.

Forex trading mein, GBP/JPY pair ko July ke peak se zyada 13% ki girawat ka samna karna para, jo yen-funded carry trades ke unwinding ki wajah se hui thi. Is sell-off ko market expectations ne trigger kiya ke shayad BoJ apni policy ko shift karegi aur inflation aur economic conditions ke reaction mein mazeed rate hikes introduce karegi. Magar Uchida ke taaza comments se yeh lagta hai ke abhi ke liye yeh aggressive tightening measures nazar mein nahi hain, jo yen ke liye thodi rahat ka sabab bane aur is ne yen ko doosri currencies ke against, British pound ko shamil karte hue, thoda recover karne ka moqa diya.







Lekin yen ki depreciation mein short-term relief ke bawajood, market mein ab bhi uncertainty hai. Investors BoJ ke future policy decisions ko closely monitor kareinge, khaaskar agar inflation barh raha ho ya economic growth expectations se zyada tez ho jaye. Global market dynamics aur BoJ ka ehtiyaat se interest rate hikes ke baray mein qadam uthana critical factors honge jo yen ke future trajectory aur GBP/JPY exchange rate par asar daalenge.

Summary: Hal hi mein GBP/JPY ka izafa market ka reaction tha BoJ ke rate hikes rokne ke potential par, jab ke yen ki depreciation aur market volatility barh rahi thi. Jab ke yen ne kuch recovery ki hai, outlook ab bhi ehtiyaat se bhara hai, aur aagay ke movements ka daromadar BoJ ke policy actions aur global market conditions par ho ga.

UK Construction Sector Ka Tajziya

UK construction sector apni recent tareekh ke buland tareen level par pohanch gaya hai, jo ke Standard & Poor's Global ke taaza data mein zahir hota hai. UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) July 2024 ke liye 55.3 tak barh gaya hai, jo market expectations 52.7 se kaafi zyada hai, aur June ke 52.2 se bhi kaafi izafa darj kiya gaya. Yeh izafa construction sector mein aik bara mahana expansion ko zahir karta hai aur pichlay paanch mahino se musalsal growth ka silsila jari hai. July ka growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sab se tez raha hai.

July ke liye aik aham highlight housing projects mein dobara growth ka aana tha, sath hi commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekha gaya. Is ke ilawa, civil engineering mein bhi dhai saal se zyada arsay ka sab se bara expansion dekha gaya. Is dauran, construction activity aur naye orders mein bhi sharp izafa hua, jis ki wajah se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein musalsal teesray mahine izafa hota raha.

Lekin, construction sector ki barhti hui demand ne supply chain par kafi pressure dal diya, jis ki wajah se input costs mein tezi se izafa hua. In supply-side challenges ke bawajood, sector ki overall performance ab bhi mazboot hai, aur agle mahino mein mazeed growth ki umeed hai.








Financial side par dekha jaye, to British 10-year Treasury bond yields mein izafa dekha gaya, jo ke chay mahine ke lowest level par thi. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury notes ka yield 3.74% se barh kar 3.9% tak pohanch gaya. Yeh izafa U.S. services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad hua, jis ne market ke pehle ke kuch nuqsanat ko thora kum kar diya.

Currency market mein traders GBP/JPY pair mein aik selling opportunity ko consider kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 ke level se neeche break karti hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bearish move ka projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, behtareen rahega ke 194.76 par aadhi position close kar ke profits secure kar lein, aur mazeed downside ka room chhor dein.

Main aik tajurba kar forex trader hoon, aur mairay paas das saal se zyada ka market experience hai. Aakhri do saalon mein kuch aham strategies discover ki hain. Mera irada hai ke main apni technical analysis ko is forum par share karoon, aur kisi bhi shakhsiat se feedback ya suggestions ko khush amadid kahoon ga jo is analysis ko mazeed behtar banana chahte hain.

GBP/JPY Market Analysis


Daily timeframe ke charts par price movements ka tajziya karte hue dekha ja sakta hai ke GBPJPY pair ka trend pichlay mahine ke trading session mein musalsal bullish aur bearish trends ke darmiyan ghoomta raha, aur yeh range kaafi wide thi. Pichlay hafte ke trading session mein bhi significant range ke sath izafa hua, lekin weekend ke end par price ne achanak shiddat se girawat dekhi. Halankeh Monday ki raat ko price ne 189.54 level tak girne ki koshish ki, lekin ab tak market mein price movement mein bullish potential nazar aa raha hai.

GBPJPY market ki movement ab bhi Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 aur 150 indicators ke ooper aram se chal rahi hai. Hafte ke aaghaz mein trading session ke dauran, price par sellers ka pressure nazar aya, aur yeh consistently opening price level se neeche move karta raha jo pichlay hafte ke aaghaz par tha. Market ki haalat ko dekhtay huay aaj dopahar tak, lagta hai ke ab bhi trend ke direction ke mutabiq transactions karna mumkin hai, jo pichlay kuch hafton se dekhay gaye izafay ko continue kar sakti hai.

Pichlay tajziya ki tarah, yeh dekhna faidemand hoga ke chart par lagaye gaye indicators kya signals show karte hain. Dekha ja sakta hai ke Relative Strength Index (14) ka Lime Line barhta hua 70 ke qareeb pohanch raha hai, jo ek strong bullish market condition ka ishara hai. Histogram bar jo pehle zero level ke neeche tha, ab phir se barh raha hai aur zero level ke ooper position mein hai, sath hi MACD ka yellow dotted signal line bhi upward direction mein move karta nazar aa raha hai.

GBP-JPY Pair Forecast

Maine GBPJPY chart par H4 timeframe ka tajziya kiya aur dekha ke chand din pehle ke trading session mein candlestick ne kafi significant bearish movement dikhayi. Chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke price ab bhi downward correction ka samna kar raha hai, lekin candlestick ab bhi Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ke ooper aram se move kar raha hai. Maujooda market situation ko dekhte hue, ab bhi last week ke trend direction ke mutabiq izafa continue karne ka potential nazar aa raha hai.

Analysis ka natija nikaalte hue maine chand technical indicators ka data samjhne ki koshish ki. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator (14) ke Lime Line ne level 50 ke ooper thoda izafa kiya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke hafte ke aaghaz mein market mein bullish potential ab bhi moujood hai. MACD indicator ke histogram bar ki position bhi consistently zero level ke ooper hai, jo ke mere mutabiq yeh tasveer pesh karta hai ke market mein price ab bhi consistently bullish trend ki taraf move kar raha hai.







Nateeja:

Analysis ke akhri hisson mein, sabhi indicators technical data ko support kar rahe hain ke market bullish trend mein move kar raha hai. Mere khayal mein, GBPJPY price ke mazeed upward trend mein jaane ka potential ab bhi maujood hai, jo apni bullish movement ko continue karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Ek acha option jo profits ke chances barha sakta hai, wo yeh hai ke trend ke direction mein trade kiya jaye, jo upar ki taraf move kar raha hai.

Mere mutabiq, ek ideal area BUY transactions ke liye yeh hoga ke hum intezar karein jab price wapas 192.88 ke level tak barhti hai, kyun ke us waqt market mein bullish continuation signal phir se zahir hote hue nazar aaye ga. Agar buyers ke liye price ko 193.82 level tak push karna mumkin ho jata hai, to price ke barhne ka potential aur bhi zyada ho sakta hai, jo koshish karega ke price aur unchi levels ko chhoo sake.

GBP-JPY Pair Movement

GBPJPY pair mein kamzori dekhne ko mili hai jab se pichlay hafte ke akhir mein price 189.54 zone tak gir gaya tha, lekin ab tak bearish movement mazeed neeche nahi gayi. Sellers ab tak price movement ka control apne haath mein nahi le paye hain. Pichlay hafte ke aghaz mein price mein izafa dekha gaya jo raat tak qaim raha. October ke aaghaz mein market ki surat-e-haal kaafi wazeh nazar aayi hai ke market abhi tak bullish zone mein move karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Market ki movement ko dekhte huye yeh zahir hota hai ke kuch ghanton se trend bullish side ki taraf barh raha hai. Agli price journey ka imkaan hai ke woh 194.12 area ko dobara test karne ki koshish karegi.

Is hafte ke trading period ke aghaz se bullish movement kaafi zyada hai, jo price ko mazeed ooncha le jane ka potential rakhti hai. Market ke aaj subah ke opening ke baad upward movement dekha gaya hai jo price ko barhne mein madad de raha hai. Stochastic indicator ne 80 zone paar kar liya hai, jo buyers ka control zahir karta hai. Mera andaza hai ke GBPJPY pair ke aglay market halat mein price ke barhne ka imkaan hai, aur buyers consistent koshish kar rahe hain ke candlestick ko Uptrend side par le jaya jaye. Bullish journey ka target shayad dobara se high position tak jaye, jahan se doosray buyers ke liye bhi price ko barhane ka imkaan paida ho sakta hai.

Agar aap aik achi trading position dhoond rahe hain, to mere khayal mein intezar karein jab tak price 193.16 tak barh jaye. Aaj price ka rujhan Uptrend side par hai, lekin mein aap ko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke subah ke market halat mein correction ka imkaan hota hai, jahan se price bullish trend side par barhne se pehle neeche ja sakti hai. Is waqt humein izafa ka faida uthate huye aqalmandi ka muzahira karna chahiye, aur forex market mein kisi bhi waqt anay wali possibilities ka khayal rakhna chahiye.

Trading Recommendation: BUY

Trading Chart on GBP/JPY H4

Mahine ke akhir mein trading instruments mein ziada volatility dekhne ko mil rahi hai, jo retail traders ke liye ziyada ehtiyaat ka taqaza karti hai, jo bade players aur institutions ke actions ka peechha karte hain. Ahem profit-taking ka asar market prices par bhi par sakta hai. Yeh update GBPJPY aur EURGBP currency pairs par focus karti hai, jo British Pound ke saath linked hain. GBPJPY ka price rally 193.21 resistance level ko paar kar chuka hai, aur lagta hai ke price ab Fibonacci Retracement (FR) levels 127.2 - 196.10 ki taraf barh sakta hai, jahan se ek downward correction phase ka imkaan hai. Pehle jo reversal signals aaye the, unka price ko neeche le jaane ka asar nahi hua. Bank of Japan ka benchmark rate ko kisi wazeh limit ke baghair barqarar rakhne ka faisla Japanese Yen ke outlook ko kamzor kar raha hai, jo ke price ko FR 50 - 188.57 ya FR 61.8 - 189.72 tak girne ka mauqa de sakta tha, jab ke us waqt ka trend bearish tha.

Ongoing GBP/JPY Price Rally:

Aghaz se hi GBPJPY ka price rally 193.21 resistance ko paar kar gaya hai. Aik imkaan yeh hai ke price movement FR 127.2 - 196.10 ki taraf barh sakti hai, jiske baad ek downward correction phase ka potential hai. Pehle jo reversal signals aaye the, wo price ko neeche le jaane mein kamiyab nahi ho sake. Bank of Japan ke benchmark rate ko baghair kisi limit ke rakhne ka fundaamental asar Japanese Yen ke outlook ko kamzor kar raha hai. Jab price FR 50 - 188.57 ya FR 61.8 - 189.72 tak pohoch gaya tha, to us waqt ka trend abhi bhi bearish tha, aur price ke mazeed girne ka imkaan tha.







Abhi ke halat mein, golden cross signal ke baad jab EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ne perfect cross kiya, to bullish trend ke direction ne price ko ooper le jaane ka signal diya. Dusri taraf, price pattern ka structure bhi tabdeel ho gaya hai jab 193.21 ka resistance paar ho gaya. 193.45 ke high prices ka structure break hua hai, jo ke lower low - lower high structure ke liye invalidation level hai. Is liye, jab downward correction phase aata hai, to price ek higher low pattern bana sakti hai, jo shayad EMA 50 ya FR 78.6 - 191.36 ke aas paas ho. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka point of view se dekha jaye to, lagta hai ke histogram volume GBPJPY pair ke price volume ke izafay ke saath match nahi kar raha. Yeh uptrend momentum to zahir karta hai, lekin bearish divergence signal ka bhi imkaan hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters overbought zone mein 90 - 80 level par pohanch gaye hain, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke buying saturation point jald hi pohanchne wala hai.

GBP/JPY Pair Ka Jaiza

GBP/JPY ka jorha Mangal ko girawat ka shikaar hua, jo daily high levels se 159.35 ke aas paas se wapas aaya, jab British pound par bechne ka pressure tha. U.S. dollar ki taqat, jo Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke hawkish stance ke baad aayi, aur GBP ke nuqsanat ke liye wazeh buniyadi catalysts ki kami ne is jorhay ki girawat mein bhagidaari di. Jabke UK mein rate-cutting cycle ki aashaon ka muqabla U.S. aur Eurozone se slow hai, lekin yeh GBP/JPY ki neeche aane ki sambhavna ko simat sakta hai. Saath hi, Japanese yen ka mahol bhi ek ahmiyat rakhta hai. Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ka interest rate hikes par ehtiyaat bhara rukh aur aanewale general election ne safe-haven Japanese yen ko kamzor kar diya hai, jo GBP/JPY ke liye faida mand sabit ho raha hai. UK ka final manufacturing PMI ka release, jo thoda upar ki taraf tabdeel hua lekin ab bhi 50 se neeche tha, ka asar is pair par limited raha. Lekin, overall buniyadi soorat-e-haal yeh darust karti hai ke long positions lene se pehle ehtiyaat baratni chahiye, khaaskar agar GBP/JPY mein kisi bhi aham downtrend ke khilaf ho.

Technical Perspective

Technical nazariye se dekha jaye to, price ka 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ko baar baar torne mein na kamiyabi, jo daily chart par "death cross" banata hai, bearish pressure ka ishaara karta hai. Aggressive bullish traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Global economic outlook, jis mein trade tensions, geopolitical risks, aur central bank policies jaise factors shamil hain, currency markets par aham asar daal sakte hain. Investor ke risk appetite mein tabdeeli bhi GBP/JPY pair ko asar انداز کر سکتی ہے۔ Risk aversion ke doran, investors safe-haven currencies jese ke Japanese yen ki talash kar sakte hain, jo GBP/JPY par neeche ka pressure daal sakta hai.







Buniyadi factors ke ilawa, technical analysis bhi market trends aur potential price movements ke liye qeemti insights faraham kar sakta hai. Traders aksar technical indicators jese moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur chart patterns ka istemal karte hain trading opportunities identify karne ke liye. GBP/JPY pair ab bhi volatile hai, jo economic factors, market sentiment, aur technical indicators ke combination se asar انداز کر رہا ہے۔ Jab ke short-term outlook mushkil ho sakta hai, traders ko chahiye ke woh broader economic landscape aur technical signals ko dhyan se analyse karein taake potential trading opportunities identify kar sakein aur risk ko effectively manage kar sakein.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY H4 time frame ke chart par nazar dalne se yeh pata chalta hai ke pichle mahine mein price movements ka ek khaas pattern hai, jahan bullish aur bearish trends ka aapas mein aana jaana hota raha hai. Is pair ne kafi zyada volatility dekhi hai, jahan upar aur neeche dono taraf ki movements kaafi wide trading range mein hui hain. Yeh aapas mein chalta rehta hai jo traders ke liye mauqe aur challenges dono paida karta hai, jab market bullish rallies aur bearish corrections ke darmiyan fluctuation karta hai. Pichle mahine ke doran, GBP/JPY pair ka rukh bar-bar badalta raha hai, jo ek broad range mein trade karta raha hai aur traders ko upar aur neeche dono taraf ki movements ko capture karne ka mauqa diya.

Bullish phases ke doran, pair ne 185.00 tak ka upar ka rukh kiya, jo ke British Pound ki taqat aur positive economic data aur Bank of England ki taraf se mazeed tightening ki aashaon ki wajah se tha. Saath hi, Japanese Yen ki kamzori, jo Bank of Japan ki continued accommodative monetary policy ke asar mein thi, ne bhi bullish momentum ko barhawa diya. Lekin, in bullish advances ko bar-bar sharp bearish corrections ne roka hai. Bearish phases aksar global risk-off sentiment ke wajah se triggered hote hain, jab investors geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke concerns ke chalte safer assets jaise Japanese Yen ki taraf rujhan karte hain. Yeh corrections pair ko 182.00-183.00 ke ilake ki taraf khinch leti hain, jahan isne support hasil kiya aur phir se upar ki taraf jana shuru kiya.

Key Levels

Technical analysis ke nazariye se, H4 time frame par kuch key levels ubhar kar saamne aaye hain jinhein traders ko yaad rakhna chahiye. Upar ki taraf, resistance 185.00 ke aas paas hai, jo ek psychological level hai aur jo pichle kuch hafton mein bar-bar test hua hai. Agar yeh resistance tor diya gaya to bullish momentum ka agla signal mil sakta hai, jiska agla target 187.00 level ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Is ke muqablay mein, support 182.00 level ke aas paas dekha gaya hai, jahan pair ne bearish corrections ke doran buyers ko consistently dhoondha hai. Agar yeh support tor diya gaya, to yeh further declines ke liye darwaza khol sakta hai, jo ke 180.00 level ko target kar sakta hai.







Jab pair wide range mein trade kar raha hai, traders ko lagataar volatility ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Dono long aur short positions is environment mein profitable ho sakti hain, lekin key support aur resistance levels par careful nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Appropriate stop-loss orders set karna aur disciplined risk management rakhna GBP/JPY market mein fluctuations ka samna karne ke liye bohot ahem hoga.

GBP/JPY pair ka behaviour pichle mahine mein alternating bullish aur bearish trends se bhara raha hai, jahan price movements H4 time frame par ek wide range cover karti hain. Yeh pair ka behaviour buyers aur sellers dono ke liye mauqe faraham karta hai, lekin volatility ke chalte traders ko apne entries aur exits mein ehtiyaat aur dikhate rakhna hoga. Key technical levels par nazar rakhna aur buniyadi asraat se waqif rehna is dynamic market mein profitable moves capture karne ke liye zaroori hoga.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par hai, jo qareeb 191.63 par positioned hai. EMA ek ahem technical indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of

**GBP/USD Ki Haalaton Ka Jaiza:**
Pichle haftay, GBP/USD jorha ne 30 mahine ka naya unchaai dekha, jo 1.3430 ke qareeb pohanch gaya, jab ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ne shiddat se interest rate 50 basis points (bps) kam kiya. Yeh Fed ka pehla rate cut tha chaar saal se zyada waqt mein, jis ne British Pound (GBP) ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein mazid taqat di. Is qadam ne Bank of England (BoE) ke September ke policy elan ki taraf bhi tawajjoh di, jahan mazeed rate adjustments ki koi umeed nahi hai.

**Inflation Ka Nazariya:**

UK aur US ke liye inflation ka nazariya GBP/USD jorhe par asar انداز mein aik aham kirdar ada kar raha hai. Jab ke UK ke services sector ka inflation umeed se zyada aaya, Fed ka ehtiyaat bhara rawayya inflation targets ke hawale se yeh darshata hai ke aane wale rate hikes ya cuts data par depend karenge. Is liye, agar inflation data mein koi ghaflati tabdeeli aati hai to yeh currency jorhe mein kaafi volatility paida kar sakti hai, khaaskar jab bazar central bank ki rahnumai ke liye mehsoos karte hain.

**Fed Ki Policy Mein Tabdeeli:**

Jab ke Fed ne apna policy-easing cycle 50 bps rate cut se shuru kiya, is ne mazeed badi cuts ki umeedon ko kam kar diya. Fed ke policymakers ne yeh bhi andaza lagaya ke inflation 2% ke target par 2026 se pehle wapas nahi aayegi, jis ki wajah se US Treasury bond yields mein tezi aayi. Is se USD Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki taqat ko mukhtalif currencies ke saath maapta hai, ek haftay ki unchaai par pohanch gaya. USD ki yeh nayi taqat GBP/USD jorhe par neeche ki taraf pressure daal rahi hai, jo iski recent gains ko maintain karne mein rukawat bana raha hai.

**H4 Chart Ka Jaiza:**

Jorha ne apna girawat jari rakha, pehle ke low 1.3266 se neeche gir gaya, aur traders ab 1.3088 support level ki taraf dekh rahe hain. Agar yeh level toota, to agla key support 1.3057 par hoga. Agar BoE bazar ko 50-bps rate cut ke saath surprise deta hai, to GBP/USD aur gir sakta hai, shayad 1.3000 ke neeche jaakar 1.2981 ke low ko test karne ka mauqa mile. Yeh technical levels bazar ki central banks ki policy decisions ke asraat ka andaza lagate waqt nazar mein rakhe jayenge.**GBP/USD Ka Tajziya:**

Haal hi mein girawat ke bawajood, GBP/USD ka overall rukh bullish hai, kyunki jorha 2023 ke doran apni upward momentum ko barqarar rakha hai. Lekin, yeh naye saal ke unchaai ko toor karne mein mushkil mehsoos kar raha hai, jo shayad Fed ke ikdamat ke baad bazar ke jazbat mein tabdeeli ki wajah se hai. Is waqt, Relative Strength Index (RSI) kharidaron ke liye support dikhata hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke jorha ek rebound dekh sakta hai. Doosri taraf, haal ki price action yeh ishaara kar rahi hai ke traders BoE ke rate faislay se pehle profits book kar rahe hain, jo short-term mein neeche ki taraf pressure ka sabab ban raha hai.

of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh hint deta hai ke zyada downside limited ho sakti hai, jabke moving averages ek potential bearish crossover ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo seller dominance ko mazid barhata hai. Iske ilawa, Fibonacci retracement levels yeh batate hain ke next major support around 182.50 par hai, jo buyers ke liye
ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis

GBP/JPY pair ne Wednesday ko Asian trading session ke douran thoda rebound dekha, jo pichlay din ke kuch nuqsanat ko reverse kar raha tha. Magar, yeh pair ab bhi 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ke neeche trade kar raha tha, jo ke 191.00 level ke aas-paas tha. Japanese Yen (JPY) ab bhi Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke further interest rate hikes ke hawalay se paish anay wali ghair yaqini surat-e-haal se mutasir tha. Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ka accommodating monetary policy ko barqarar rakhne ka irada aur aane wali snap election ne political uncertainty ko barhaya, jiski wajah se yen par pressure barh gaya. Jabke Middle East mein Iran ke Israel par missile attacks ke baad jang ka khauf barh gaya, investors ka risky assets mein interest kam hota nazar aaya, jo ke safe-haven yen ke liye support bana raha. BoJ ke future interest rate hikes ki umeedat, aur Bank of England (BoE) ke further rate cuts ke bets ke muqable mein, GBP/JPY pair ke upside ko limited kar rahi thi.



Wednesday ko kisi bhi aham economic data ki kami ke bawajood, naye bullish bets lagane se pehle ehtiyat baratne ki hidayat ki gayi thi. Technically, "death cross" jo 50-day moving average ka 200-day moving average ke neeche cross hone se banta hai, bearish bias ko zahir kar raha tha. Is ke ilawa, GBP/JPY ka baar baar 200-day moving average ke upar support na dhoondh paana yeh dikhata hai ke aagay barhni ke liye mazid strong buying ki zarurat hai. Pichlay 10 din mein GBP/JPY pair ne ek strong bullish rally dekhi, jo ke 195.95 ka fresh two-month high tha, aur 183.70 support level se achi recovery dekhi gayi thi. Market ne 200-day SMA aur 195.00 full level ke upar break kar lia, jo ke upward correction ke liye rasta bana raha tha. Technically, Stochastic ab bhi overbought zone mein tha, jabke RSI 70 level ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Agar bulls ne tezi dikhai, toh pair 199.40 aur 201.60 jese aglay resistance levels ko challenge kar sakta hai.

GBP/JPY Pair Ki Paishgoi
Main ne GBP/JPY chart ko H4 timeframe par dekha, aur kuch din pehle ke trading session mein candlestick kaafi significant bearish movement kar raha tha. Chart par dekhne se maloom hota hai ke price ab bhi downward correction ka samna kar raha hai, magar candlestick ab bhi Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ke upar comfortably trade kar raha hai. Mojooda market situation se andaza hota hai ke last week ke trend ke mutabiq price mein mazeed izafa ka potential ab bhi maujood hai.

Analysis ke nateejay ko nikalne se pehle, maine chand technical indicators ke zariye data ko samajhne ki koshish ki. Relative Strength Index (14) ke Lime Line ne thodi si izafi position li hai aur level 50 ke upar chala gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke hafte ke aghaz mein ab bhi bullish movement ka potential hai. Saath hi, MACD indicator par histogram bar ab bhi consistently zero level ke upar hai, jo market mein bullish trend ki taraf janne ka saboot hai.

Hafte ka zyada hissa guzar gaya hai, to ab H4 period chart ko dobara dekhtay hain—GBP/JPY currency pair ko le kar. Pichla trading week zyadatar sellers ke qabzay mein tha; sirf hafte ke aghaz mein thoda izafa dekha gaya, aur phir decline shuru ho gaya jo hafte ke aakhir tak jari raha. Kuch din rollback movements bhi hue, magar har dafa sellers ne price ko aur neeche giraya. Wave structure ne downward trend ko follow kiya, aur MACD indicator ne neeche sales zone mein apni position banayi, apni signal line ke neeche. Mera khayal hai ke decline ab bhi jari rahega aur target pichlay August ke minimum par hoga.



Shorter time periods par kaam karne ki strategy yeh honi chahiye ke jab bhi decline ka pattern form ho, downward positions lein. Ho sakta hai ke hum foran neeche na jayein, is ka andaza CCI indicator ki position se lagaya ja sakta hai, jo lower overheating zone mein hai. Decline se pehle ek corrective growth 189.16 ke paas ke resistance level tak aasakti hai. Agar yeh rollback hota hai, to iss level ke kareeb M15 jese younger time period par sale formation dekhi ja sakti hai, takay support resistance mein tabdeel ho sake. Iss se aapko younger level par entry milegi jo higher level se supported hogi.

Lekin mein kharidari ka mashwara nahi doon ga, kyun ke chhoti si rollback ke baad phir se downward trend aasakta hai, khas tor par jab pound ka market mein overall kamzori ka rujhan hai. Agar August ke minimum ko dobara hit kiya jata hai, to MACD indicator par ek bullish divergence ka signal aasakta hai, jo growth ka ishara ho ga. Magar yeh abhi future ki baat hai, aur abhi is per baat karna thoda jaldi ho ga. Pichlay kuch dino mein price ka pressure neeche hi tha, jaisa ke umeed thi.

GBP/JPY currency pair ne lagataar chaar dinon se girawat ka saamna kiya hai, aur aaj subha (Wednesday) Asian session mein yeh takreeban 199.50 ke ird-gird trade kar rahi hai. Yeh girawat mumkin hai ke investor safety ki taraf jaane ki wajah se hui ho, jis se Japanese Yen ki qeemat barh gayi hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke agle hafte interest rates barhane ki umeed bhi market par asar daal rahi hai. Is hawkish stance ke chalte short sellers apni positions band kar rahe hain, jis se Yen mazid mazboot ho raha hai. Japan ki hukumat ke senor afraad bhi is umeed ko barhawa de rahe hain. Hukoomat ki ruling party ke official Toshimitsu Motegi ne BoJ ko kaha ke wo apni monetary policy normalization ka plan mazid mazboot karen aur interest rates ko dheere dheere barhane ka tasalsul rakhen, jabke Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ka manna hai ke yeh Japan ko growth-driven economy mein tabdeel karne ka rasta saaf karega. Economic data do countries ke liye mukhtalif tasveer pesh karta hai. Japan ke manufacturing sector ne contraction dekha, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI July mein gir kar 49.2 par aagayi, jo ke June mein 50.0 thi aur market expectations 50.5 se kaafi neeche thi. Yeh April ke baad pehli dafa factory activity mein girawat hai. Lekin, services sector ne mazbooti dikhai, aur PMI July mein 53.9 tak barh gaya jo ke pichle maheenay 49.4 tha. Yeh is saal ka chhata maheenay ka growth hai aur April ke baad ka sabse mazboot expansion hai.

Dousri taraf, Bank of England (BoE) ka stance bhi GBP/JPY pair par asar andaz ho raha hai. BoE ke August mein rate cut ke kam chances Pound ko mazboot kar sakte hain aur pair ke nuqsanat ko kam kar sakte hain. Market participants UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) activity survey results ka intizar kar rahe hain jo aaj baad mein release honge. Forecasts ke mutabiq UK services PMI July mein rebound ho kar 52.5 tak barh sakta hai, jo ke June mein 52.1 tha aur yeh saat maheenay ka lowest level tha. Manufacturing PMI bhi umeed hai ke barh kar 51.1 tak pohonch sakta hai jo pehle 50.9 tha.

GBP/JPY currency pair ke H1 time frame par din bhar ki kharidari ke liye, 156.200 aur 156.340 ke sahara darjaton par tajweez hai ke istemal karein, jo intehai tehqiqat ke saath munfarid hain. In trades ka maqsad 157.500 par rakha gaya hai, jisse munafa hasil karne ka wazeh maqsad milta hai. Is ke ilawa, 155.795 par stop-loss lagana risk ko manage karne aur bade nuqsaan se bachne mein madad deta hai. Is mazbooti se nizam ko behtar banane ke liye, traders technical indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages, aur Bollinger Bands ke saath mukhtasar mukhtasar tashreehat bhi faraham kar sakte hain. Agar RSI sahara darjaton ke qareeb overbought ilaqon mein hai, to yeh ek kharidari trade mein dakhil hone ka faisla sath sath faraham karta hai. Isi tarah, agar qeemat aik moving average ke qareeb hai jo qadeem taur par sahara ka kaam karta hai, to yeh trade setup par mazeed aitmaad faraham kar sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, traders ko keemat ki harkat ko qareeb se nazar andaz nahi karna chahiye jab yeh sahara darjaton ke qareeb hoti hai. Candlestick patterns jaise ke bullish engulfing patterns, hammer, ya doji sahara darjaton ke qareeb pehle signs faraham kar sakte hain ek mozu ulte ka. Ye patterns aksar yeh batate hain ke bechne ki dabao kam ho rahi hai aur kharidari ka dil nikal raha hai, jo sahara darjaton ko zyada pakka banata hai. Ikhtitam mein, GBP/JPY currency pair ke H1 time frame par din bhar ki kharidari ke liye, 156.200 ka pehla sahara darja aur 156.340 ka doosra sahara darja par kharidari ko ghor kiya ja sakta hai, ek maqsad 157.500 par aur ek 155.795 par stop loss se, aik achhi seerat ka nizam ho sakta hai. Ye tareeqa maqami dakhil hone ke nuktae nazar ko jama karta hai, aik wazeh maqsad, aur sound risk management. Magar, market ki haalaat ke mutalliq maloomat haasil rakhna aur technical analysis tools ka istemal karke tradeon mein kamiyabi ke ihtimam ko barqarar rakhna ahem hai. Is tarah se, traders apne chances ko barhane mein kamiyabi ke imkaanat ko barha sakte hain jabke apne