جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Aaj ke liye GBP/JPY mein correction phase ka aghaz nazar aa raha hai. Kal ke din sellers ne ziada josh nahi dikhaya, jis ki wajah se choti si bearish candle ban gayi jo pehle din ke range mein hi thi. Abhi ke halat ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke aaj southern correction movement ho sakti hai, lekin main is movement mein trade karne ka iraada nahi rakhta. Agar correction gehra hota hai, to main mirror support level par nazar rakhoonga jo meri analysis ke mutabiq 200.539 par hai. Is support level ke qareeb do scenarios ban sakte hai.
Pehla aur pasandeeda scenario yeh hai ke reversal candle bane, jo uptrend ke dobara aghaz ki nishani ho. Agar yeh plan play out hota hai, to main prices ko resistance level 207.995 tak wapas aane ka intezar karoon ga. Jab price is resistance level ke upar close ho jaye, to main agay northward movement ki umeed karoon ga, jo ke aglay resistance level 215.892 tak ja sakti hai. Is resistance level ke qareeb main trading setup ke banne ka intezar karoon ga taake aglay trading direction ka faisla kiya ja sake. Yeh baat zaroori hai ke is upward movement ke dauran kuch southern pullbacks ho sakte hain, jin ko main nearby support levels par bullish signals dhondhne ke liye use karoon ga, taake broader global bullish trend ke dauran uptrend continue ho sake
Doosra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke agar price support level 200.539 ke qareeb aata hai, to main dekhunga ke price is level ke neeche consolidate hota hai aur southward movement continue karta hai ya nahi. Agar yeh scenario play out hota hai, to mujhe lagta hai ke price 197.201 ya 195.044 ke support levels ki taraf move karega. In support levels ke qareeb, main phir se bullish signals dhondhne ka plan karoon ga, is umeed ke saath ke price wapas upward movement shuru kar de.

Mukhtasir mein, aaj ke liye yeh mumkin hai ke price nearby support level ki taraf southward move kare as a form of correction. Us ke baad, ab ke global bullish trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, main reversal candle ke banne ka intezar karoon ga aur price mein upward

GBP-JPY H1 TIME FRAME

Agar aaj dekha jaye to, lagta hai ke price 190.505 tak barhne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh izafa is wajah se hai ke yen ke exchange rate mein aaj kamzori aayi hai jab se yen ka trade balance data release hua hai, jo -0.76 trillion yen tak gir gaya hai. Is wajah se GBPJPY ka movement aaj buyers ke qabze mein hai. Iske ilawa, aaj dopahar mein pound sterling ka exchange rate bhi kamzor hua hai kyunki public sector net borrowing ka data release hua jo 2.2B pounds sterling tak barh gaya hai. Lekin GBPJPY ka movement abhi bhi kaafi strong hai aur future mein 190.20 ke price tak pahunch sakta hai, kyunki pound sterling ki kamzori abhi bhi yen ke muqable mein kam hai. Mere aaj dopahar ke fundamental analysis ke mutabiq, maine faisla kiya hai ke GBPJPY ko 190.505 ke price tak BUY karoon ga.

Mere technical analysis ke mutabiq, GBPJPY ka movement aaj dopahar mein abhi bhi barhne ka rujhan rakhta hai aur 190.505 ke price tak ja sakta hai. Iski wajah yeh hai ke H1 time frame mein GBPJPY ka movement bullish engulfing candle form kar raha hai, jo ke BUY GBPJPY ke liye ek bohot strong signal hai aur price 190.505 tak ja sakta hai. Iske ilawa, maine RSI 14 indicator ka observation kiya to yeh pata chala ke GBPJPY ka price 188.90 pe oversold ho chuka hai ya phir selling kaafi zyada ho gayi hai, isliye bohot zyada imkan hai ke aaj dopahar GBPJPY 10-40 pips ka izafa karega. BUY GBPJPY ka signal SNR aur Fibonacci methods ke zariye bhi supported hai kyunki jab GBPJPY ka price 188.90 ko touch karta hai to yeh RBS area mein aa jata hai, yaani Resistance Become Support, isliye aaj buyers ke GBPJPY pair mein enter hone ka imkan hai. Mere technical analysis ke results ke mutabiq, maine faisla kiya hai ke GBPJPY ko 190.505 ke price tak BUY karoon ga.

GBP/JPY currency pair ne lagataar chaar dinon se girawat ka saamna kiya hai, aur aaj subha (Wednesday) Asian session mein yeh takreeban 199.50 ke ird-gird trade kar rahi hai. Yeh girawat mumkin hai ke investor safety ki taraf jaane ki wajah se hui ho, jis se Japanese Yen ki qeemat barh gayi hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke agle hafte interest rates barhane ki umeed bhi market par asar daal rahi hai. Is hawkish stance ke chalte short sellers apni positions band kar rahe hain, jis se Yen mazid mazboot ho raha hai. Japan ki hukumat ke senor afraad bhi is umeed ko barhawa de rahe hain. Hukoomat ki ruling party ke official Toshimitsu Motegi ne BoJ ko kaha ke wo apni monetary policy normalization ka plan mazid mazboot karen aur interest rates ko dheere dheere barhane ka tasalsul rakhen, jabke Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ka manna hai ke yeh Japan ko growth-driven economy mein tabdeel karne ka rasta saaf karega.
Economic data do countries ke liye mukhtalif tasveer pesh karta hai. Japan ke manufacturing sector ne contraction dekha, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI July mein gir kar 49.2 par aagayi, jo ke June mein 50.0 thi aur market expectations 50.5 se kaafi neeche thi. Yeh April ke baad pehli dafa factory activity mein girawat hai. Lekin, services sector ne mazbooti dikhai, aur PMI July mein 53.9 tak barh gaya jo ke pichle maheenay 49.4 tha. Yeh is saal ka chhata maheenay ka growth hai aur April ke baad ka sabse mazboot expansion hai.

Dousri taraf, Bank of England (BoE) ka stance bhi GBP/JPY pair par asar andaz ho raha hai. BoE ke August mein rate cut ke kam chances Pound ko mazboot kar sakte hain aur pair ke nuqsanat ko kam kar sakte hain. Market participants UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) activity survey results ka intizar kar rahe hain jo aaj baad mein release honge. Forecasts ke mutabiq UK services PMI July mein rebound ho kar 52.5 tak barh sakta hai, jo ke June mein 52.1 tha aur yeh saat maheenay ka lowest level tha. Manufacturing PMI bhi umeed hai ke barh kar 51.1 tak pohonch sakta hai jo pehle 50.9 tha.

GBP/JPY currency pair ne Wednesday ko apne rally ko third consecutive day tak extend kiya, aur 189.00 level ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Yeh upward movement thodi surprising thi kyun ke UK inflation data expectations se kam aaya tha, jo aam tor par currency ke liye downward pressure create karta hai. Yeh data Bank of England ke taraf se interest rate cuts ke potential ko suggest karta hai, jo ke normally pound ko weak karta hai.
Lekin is trend ko balance karte hue, Middle East mein rising geopolitical tensions ne investors ko safe-haven assets jaise ke Japanese yen ki taraf attract kiya. US missile submarine ke deployment aur ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict ne potential escalation ke concerns ko barhaya. Iske ilawa, Bank of Japan ke taraf se future interest rate hike ke expectations ne yen ko support provide kiya. Yeh conflicting backdrop GBP/JPY pair ke liye ek complex environment create kar raha hai, jisme currency pair ki movement multiple factors se influenced ho rahi hai.
Technical Analysis:
Pair ne potential trend reversal ke signs show kiye, aur momentum indicators ne previous downtrend ke weakening ko suggest kiya. Magar significant resistance levels ab bhi maujood hain jo upside potential ko limit karte hain. GBP/JPY pair ab bhi various economic aur geopolitical factors ke darmiyan ek tug-of-war mein **** hua hai. Market ka focus expected hai ke upcoming economic data releases, specifically agle UK CPI report, par shift hoga for further direction.
Lekin, market mein bears most likely attempt kar rahe hain ke control wapas hasil karein. August 22, 2023 ka high aur 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ne 185.21–186.75 region ko establish kiya hai, jisse GBP/JPY ko neeche force karne ki koshish ki ja sakti hai. Agar yeh successful hote hain, toh yeh pair ko April 9, 2001 ke high 181.36 tak le jaane ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is conclusion ke sath, halaan ke GBP/JPY abhi bhi rise kar raha hai, market ka momentum ab bhi shaky hai, jo ek aur decline ka room chhodta hai.
Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators ne bhi recent bullish sentiment ko support kiya hai. Average Directional Movement (ADX) indicator sideways move kar raha hai, jo GBP/JPY downtrend ke potential weakening ko suggest karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) apne midpoint ki taraf upwards ja raha hai, jab ke Stochastic indicator ne apne moving average aur oversold zone ke upar breakout kiya ha

GBP/JPY ko 180.07 ke support level tak le aaye hain, jo ke 2024 ke aghaz se ab tak ka sabse lowest level hai. Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon.

Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti hai. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue.

GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum mein, main apna technical analysis share karoon ga. Aap meri technical analysis mein improvements karne ke liye bilkul free hain. Main aap se is par discuss karne mein khushi mehsoos karoon ga. Apna support dikhane ke liye, "like" button par click karein.

GBP/JPY currency pair ab bhi further upward movement ki potential rakhti hai kyun ke demand area jo ke 180.94 par hai, ab tak penetrate nahi hua. Is kay ilawa, candle ab bhi RBS area jo ke 184.87 par hai, wahin stuck hai. Is liye, mein traders ko recommend karta hoon ke is pair par sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take-profit target resistance ke qarib 199.01 par set kar sakte hain aur stop-loss 183.69 ke support level par rakh sakte hain.

Aaj ke liye GBP/JPY mein correction phase ka aghaz nazar aa raha hai. Kal ke din sellers ne ziyata josh nahi dikhaya, jis ki wajah se choti si bearish candle ban gayi jo pehle din ke range mein hi thi. Abhi ke halat ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke aaj southern correction movement ho sakti hai, lekin main is movement mein trade karne ka iraada nahi rakhta. Agar correction gehra hota hai, to main mirror support level par nazar rakhoonga jo meri analysis ke mutabiq 200.539 par hai. Is support level ke qareeb do scenarios ban sakte hai. Pehla aur pasandeeda scenario yeh hai ke reversal candle bane, jo uptrend ke dobara aghaz ki nishani ho. Agar yeh plan play out hota hai, to main prices ko resistance level 207.995 tak wapas aane ka intezar karoon ga. Jab price is resistance level ke upar close ho jaye, to main agay northward movement ki umeed karoon ga, jo ke aglay resistance level 215.892 tak ja sakti hai. Is resistance level ke qareeb main trading setup ke banne ka intezar karoon ga taake aglay trading direction ka faisla kiya ja sake. Yeh baat zaroori hai ke is upward movement ke dauran kuch southern pullbacks ho sakte hain, jin ko main nearby support levels par bullish signals dhondhne ke liye use karoon ga, taake broader global bullish trend ke dauran uptrend continue ho sake
Doosra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke agar price support level 200.539 ke qareeb aata hai, to main dekhunga ke price is level ke neeche consolidate hota hai aur southward movement continue karta hai ya nahi. Agar yeh scenario play out hota hai, to mujhe lagta hai ke price 197.201 ya 195.044 ke support levels ki taraf move karega. In support levels ke qareeb, main phir se bullish signals dhondhne ka plan karoon ga, is umeed ke saath ke price wapas upward movement shuru kar de.

Mukhtasir mein, aaj ke liye yeh mumkin hai ke price nearby support level ki taraf southward move kare as a form of correction. Us ke baad, ab ke global bullish trend ko madde nazar

GBPJPY: H1 chart. Main yeh umeed kar raha tha ke Friday ko price 199.107 se bohot zyada upar jayegi. Magar, yeh is value se upar nahi ja saki. Iss liye mujhe lagta hai ke price abhi bhi gir ke 194.70-194.170 tak jayegi. Yeh tab hoga agar Friday ko rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas paas ho sakti hai. ZUP indicator ek price movement ko bearish pattern ki taraf signal kar raha hai: bearish 1.618 * AB = CD, jahan point D ka extreme price value 199.260 hai. Toh is waqt, bearish pattern ab bhi kaafi relevant hai. Indicators ki category se aur ek vote decrease ke liye. Fast stochastic (5.3.3) ke readings 70.884 aur 67.9982 ek price movement ko overbought ki taraf signal kar rahe hain, slow stochastic (50.10.25) ke readings 50.7735 aur 46.6937 halfway hain oversold zone se overbought zone tak. Is tarah se, hum keh sakte hain ke stochastic south movement ke against hain, magar, overnight yeh signal line values change kar sakti hain, agar instrument ne continue kiya Friday evening ke jaise, toh fast stochastic (5.3.3) ki values change ho sakti hain, aur slow bhi change ho sakta hai. Raha tha ke Friday ko price 199.107 se bohot zyada upar jayegi. Magar, yeh is value se upar nahi ja saki. Iss liye mujhe lagta hai ke price abhi bhi gir ke 194.70-194.170 tak jayegi. Yeh tab hoga agar Friday ko rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas Click image for larger version GBP/JPY pair ke favor mein strong market sentiment suggest karta hai. GBP/JPY mein uptrend traders ko multiple opportunities provide karta hai bullish price movements ka faida uthane ke liye. Key support aur resistance levels ko samajh kar aur respect kar ke traders strategically positions enter aur exit kar sakte hain, apne profit potential ko

Pichhle do dinon mein kai ahem ma'ashi indicators aur developments ne is pair ke liye nazariyat ko shakal di hai. UK ki Ma'ashi Halat: UK se aayi recent data kuch milay julay asraat ka izhar karti hai. 9 August, 2024 ko manufacturing aur industrial production ke figures ka release hua jo ke June ke liye hai, jismein ahem tor par ummeed se kam taraqqi dekhi gayi. Manufacturing production sirf 0.6% saal beh saal barh gaya hai, jo ke UK ki industrial sector mein musalsal paish aane wali mushkilat ko darshata hai. Is ke ilawa, UK ka trade balance bhi ummeed se zyada deficit dikhata hai, jo global ma'ashi uncertainties ke darmiyan export performance mein kamzori ki nishani hai.
Bank of England (BoE) ka yaraya ab bhi ehtiyaat bhara hai, utasalar jabke Q2 2024 ka GDP growth rate ummeed se kam aaya hai, jo sirf 0.3% saal beh saal hai. Isne UK ki ma'ashi mazbooti ke bare mein fikray paida kiye hain, utsalar jabke inflationary pressures aur Europe ke markets mein geopolitical tensions barqarar hain. Ye ma'ashi halat BoE ki taraf se interest rates ko behtareen taur par barhane ki salahiyat ko kam kar sakti hain, jo ke kharij ki taraf pound ko kamzor kar sakti hai.
Japanese Ma'ashi Context:
Japan ki taraf, ma'ashi haalat ab bhi thodi si stability ki nishani dikha rahe hain, lekin iske apne challenges hain. Japan ka recent ma'ashi data kaafi had tak stable hai, jismein mukhtalif sectors mein ahista ahista taraqqi dekhne ko mili hai. Yen, jo ke traditionally ek safe-haven currency mana jata hai, global risk aversion ke mad e nazar mazbooti hasil kar raha hai, utasalar agar global economic outlook ke maamle mein uncertainty barh jaaye. Magar, Japan ki inflation ab bhi kuch kamzor hai, jo short term mein Bank of Japan (BoJ) ko apni monetary policy ko tight karne se roke rakhta hai. BoJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy eisa lagta hai ke barkarar rahegi, jo yen par neeche ki taraf daab dalti rahegi

GBP/JPY currency pair ne Wednesday ko apne rally ko third consecutive day tak extend kiya, aur 189.00 level ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Yeh upward movement thodi surprising thi kyun ke UK inflation data expectations se kam aaya tha, jo aam tor par currency ke liye downward pressure create karta hai. Yeh data Bank of England ke taraf se interest rate cuts ke potential ko suggest karta hai, jo ke normally pound ko weak karta hai. Lekin is trend ko balance karte hue, Middle East mein rising geopolitical tensions ne investors ko safe-haven assets jaise ke Japanese yen ki taraf attract kiya. US missile submarine ke deployment aur ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict ne potential escalation ke concerns ko barhaya. Iske ilawa, Bank of Japan ke taraf se future interest rate hike ke expectations ne yen ko support provide kiya. Yeh conflicting backdrop GBP/JPY pair ke liye ek complex environment create kar raha hai, jisme currency pair ki movement multiple factors se influenced ho rahi hai.

Technical Analysis:
Pair ne potential trend reversal ke signs show kiye, aur momentum indicators ne previous downtrend ke weakening ko suggest kiya. Magar significant resistance levels ab bhi maujood hain jo upside potential ko limit karte hain. GBP/JPY pair ab bhi various economic aur geopolitical factors ke darmiyan ek tug-of-war mein **** hua hai. Market ka focus expected hai ke upcoming economic data releases, specifically agle UK CPI report, par shift hoga for further direction.

Lekin, market mein bears most likely attempt kar rahe hain ke control wapas hasil karein. August 22, 2023 ka high aur 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ne 185.21–186.75 region ko establish kiya hai, jisse GBP/JPY ko neeche force karne ki koshish ki ja sakti hai. Agar yeh successful hote hain, toh yeh pair ko April 9, 2001 ke high 181.36 tak le jaane ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is conclusion ke sath, halaan ke GBP/JPY abhi bhi rise kar raha hai, market ka momentum ab bhi shaky hai, jo ek aur decline ka room chhodta hai.

GBP/JPY Analysis: European Session Observations** **Current Status**

GBP/JPY European session ke dauran mid-March ke baad se apne lowest levels par gir gaya hai. Yeh pair 208.11 se sharply slide hua hai, jiska sabab yen ki renewed strength aur Japanese interventions ho sakti hain. Iske ilawa, Bank of England ka rate cut sterling par additional pressure daal raha hai.

**Bearish Signals**

Kuch strong bearish signals saamne aaye hain, jinmein shamil hain:
- Daily cloud pattern ka rise hona.
- 200-day moving average ke neeche break hona.
- Aaj 189.55 support level ke neeche break hona.

Yeh indicate karta hai ke pair downward trajectory par chal sakta hai, aur significant bearish outlook hai.

**Monthly Performance**

Pair July mahine ko red mein khatam karne ke raste par hai, aur chaar consecutive weeks se red mein band hua hai. Yeh trend June 2016 ke baad se sabse bada monthly loss hai, jo negative outlook ko mazid strengthen karta hai, jab monthly chart par reversal pattern ban raha hai.

Filhal, GBP/JPY 190.30 range mein trade kar raha hai ek slight corrective increase ke baad. Lekin assumption yeh hai ke choti upward impulse ke baad price 194.10 range ki taraf girne ki koshish karegi. Agar local maximum 194.00 ke upar breakout hota hai aur pair is level ke upar consolidate karta hai, to yeh buy signal provide karega.

Dusri taraf, 190.40 range ke aas-paas false breakout ho sakta hai, jo short positions ke liye tight stop-loss orders ke sath allow karega. Agar price 190.50 ke upar break karti hai, to yeh upward movement ke resume hone ka indication ho sakta hai.

**Support Levels**

187.80 par significant support hai. Strongly oversold daily indicators shayad week ke end tak partial profit-taking ko encourage karein, jabke uptrends aur bhi weakness suggest karte hain. Pehle broken 200-day moving average ab initial resistance ban gaya hai 191.74 par, aur additional support 196.83 par hai, jo stronger rebounds ko limit kar sakti hai aur bearish sentiments ko active rakhti hai. Targets ab 185.66 aur 183.56 par hain. RSI filhal oversold territory mein hai, jo potential rally ko indicate karta hai.

**Market Influences**

GBP/JPY ki movement UK Parliamentary Elections aur various technical analysis indicators se influence hoti hai. Construction PMI rates initially buyer activity ko support kar sakte hain; lekin broader expectations for a weakened UK Pound shayad strategic sell stance ko prompt karen. Market shifts ko monitor karke aur responsive rah kar traders apne positions ko advantageously position kar sakte hain.

**Trading Strategy**

H1 timeframe chart par ek resistance area FTR/DBD region mein bana hai, jahan price ab pehle support break karne aur nayi lower high banane ke baad wait kar rahi hai. Yeh area SND traders ke liye significant hai, kyunki yeh market mein enter karne ke liye ek achhi risk-reward opportunity provide karta hai.

**Sell Strategy**

Magar, traders abhi bhi un levels ka intezar kar rahe hain jahan yen pairs ke upar jane ke baad dobara neeche aane ka imkaan hai. 4-hour chart par dekha jaye toh, pair ka price ek naya upar ka target dikha raha hai, jo weekly resistance level 206.64 hai. Is hafte, yeh pair rising price channels mein trade kar raha hai, jo price ko upar le jane mein madad kar rahe hain. Jab price in channels ki upper lines ko chhuta hai, toh yeh wapas neeche aata hai aur ek price peak banata hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab price ko neeche correct karna chahiye. Phir bhi, price ne dobara support dhundha aur successful price channels ke upar break kar gaya, jahan qareeb ka resistance level 206.64 hai. Yahi wo level hai jahan aap current level se entry kar ke buy kar sakte hain, aur target is point se thoda neeche rakh sakte hain.
Agar economic perspective se dekha jaye, toh Japan ke Forex currency markets mein mudakhlat mein dair karne se Japanese yen ke liye nuqsan barhne ka khatra hai. Agar kisi bhi waqt Japan se expected intervention hota hai, toh yeh currency pair mein zabardast selling ka sabab ban sakta hai jisse profits hasil kiye ja sakein. Risk-free selling strategy abhi bhi behtareen approach sabit ho sakti hai.

Monetary policy ke hawale se... Bank of England shayad August mein rate cuts se gurez kare agar Canada aur Australia se inflation warnings ko dekhte hue faisla kiya jaye. Agar Monetary Policy Committee ne global inflation trends ke baray mein warnings ko samjha, toh Bank of England shayad August mein interest rates ko kam na kar sake.

Economic calendar ke natayej ke mutabiq... iss hafte Canada aur Australia se aane wale figures ke mutabiq, global inflation dobara barh sakti hai. Canada mein, inflation unexpectedly 0.6% month-on-month barh gaya, jo ke expected amount se dugna tha. Australia mein, monthly CPI ne teen mahine lagataar barhkar 4.0% year-on-year tak pohoch gaya







Is studied chart se, selected asset mein clear bullish mood dekha ja sakta hai, jo ke Heiken Ashi candlestick indicator ke zariye asani se identify kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh indicator traditional Japanese candlesticks ke muqable mein price quotes ka smoother aur averaged value dikhata hai. Heiken Ashi ka istemal technical analysis ko asaan banata hai aur trading decisions ko zyada durust banata hai. TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator, jo ke current support aur resistance lines ko moving averages ke zariye dikhata hai, trading mein madadgar sabit hota hai aur currency pair ke movement ki boundaries ko dikhata hai.

Final filtering of signals aur trades ke faislay ke liye RSI oscillator ka istemal kiya jata hai, jo asset ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Is chart mein, Heiken Ashi candlesticks ne blue rang apnaya hai, jo price movement ke northern direction ko zahir karta hai. Market quotes ne linear channel ki lower boundary (red dotted line) se bahar nikal kar minimum point ko chhuna, lekin wahan se wapas middle line ki taraf chalay gaye (yellow dotted line). Neeche wala indicator, RSI (14), jo signals ko filter karta hai, bhi buy signal ko confirm karta hai, kyun ke iska curve upar ki taraf hai aur overbought level se door hai.

Upar di gayi points ko dekhte hue, sirf purchases hi relevant nazar aati hain, isliye hum ek long deal open karte hain, aur intezar karte hain ke instrument channel ke upper boundary (blue dotted line) ki taraf move kare, jo ke price mark 202.583 par hai.

**British Pound aur Japanese Yen Ka Analysis**
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ki wajah se risk-sensitive currencies, jaise ke British Pound, ka upside restrained ho sakta hai. Safe-haven flows ne Japanese Yen (JPY) ko support diya hai, jo GBP/JPY cross ke upside ko limit kar raha hai.

Israeli forces ne Khan Younis ke paas operations ko continue kiya hai. CBC News ke mutabiq, Palestinian medics ne bataya ke Israeli military strikes ke bawajood, Khan Younis mein kam se kam 18 log mar gaye hain.

Japan ka parliament 23 August ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke interest rate raise karne ke faislay par discuss karne ke liye ek special session bulane wala hai. Yeh session, jo lower house financial affairs committee ke zariye organize kiya gaya hai, mein BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ko bulane ki umeed hai, government sources ke mutabiq jo Reuters ne cite kiya hai.

GBP/JPY Tuesday ke European session mein 189.20 ke aas-paas positive ground par hai. 4-hour chart par cross negative hai, bearish RSI momentum indicator ke sath.

Pehla upside barrier 189.50 par hai; initial support level 186.48 par hai.

GBP/JPY cross Tuesday ko early European trading hours mein 189.20 ke aas-paas kuch buyers ko attract kar raha hai. Pound Sterling (GBP) ne traction gain kiya hai jab latest labor market data ne UK mein unemployment rate ko unexpectedly kam dikhaya hai.

UK ka Unemployment Rate April-June mein 4.2% par gir gaya hai, jo ke pehle 4.4% tha, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke mutabiq. Economists ne figure ko 4.5% par increase hone ki umeed ki thi. Iske ilawa, Claimant Count Change July mein 135K se increase hui hai, jo ke June mein revised gain 32.3K se zyada hai, aur 14.5K ki estimation se kaafi zyada hai.

GBP/JPY 4-hour chart par bearish vibe ko unchanged rakhta hai kyunki yeh key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche hai. Lekin, further upside ko bhi rule out nahi kiya ja sakta kyunki Relative Strength Index (RSI) midline ke aas-paas 61.85 ke upar edge kar raha hai.

Agar upper boundary of the Bollinger Band near 189.50 par decisive break hota hai to yeh 192.00 psychological level tak rise dekh sakta hai. Upar diye gaye level ke upar follow-through buying 193.26 tak ja sakti hai, jo August 1 ka high hai.







Dusri taraf, August 9 ka low 186.48 initial support level ke roop mein act karta hai. Key contention level 185.55-185.60 zone mein aata hai, jo August 8 ka low aur Bollinger Band ka lower limit hai. Additional downside filter jo dekhna hai woh 182.81 hai, jo August 6 ka low hai.

GBP/JPY European session ke dauran mid-March ke baad se apne lowest levels par gir gaya hai. Yeh pair 208.11 se sharply slide hua hai, jiska sabab yen ki renewed strength aur Japanese interventions ho sakti hain. Iske ilawa, Bank of England ka rate cut sterling par additional pressure daal raha hai.

**Bearish Signals**

Kuch strong bearish signals saamne aaye hain, jinmein shamil hain:
- Daily cloud pattern ka rise hona.
- 200-day moving average ke neeche break hona.
- Aaj 189.55 support level ke neeche break hona.

Yeh indicate karta hai ke pair downward trajectory par chal sakta hai, aur significant bearish outlook hai.

**Monthly Performance**

Pair July mahine ko red mein khatam karne ke raste par hai, aur chaar consecutive weeks se red mein band hua hai. Yeh trend June 2016 ke baad se sabse bada monthly loss hai, jo negative outlook ko mazid strengthen karta hai, jab monthly chart par reversal pattern ban raha hai.

Filhal, GBP/JPY 190.30 range mein trade kar raha hai ek slight corrective increase ke baad. Lekin assumption yeh hai ke choti upward impulse ke baad price 194.10 range ki taraf girne ki koshish karegi. Agar local maximum 194.00 ke upar breakout hota hai aur pair is level ke upar consolidate karta hai, to yeh buy signal provide karega.

Dusri taraf, 190.40 range ke aas-paas false breakout ho sakta hai, jo short positions ke liye tight stop-loss orders ke sath allow karega. Agar price 190.50 ke upar break karti hai, to yeh upward movement ke resume hone ka indication ho sakta hai.

**Support Levels**

187.80 par significant support hai. Strongly oversold daily indicators shayad week ke end tak partial profit-taking ko encourage karein, jabke uptrends aur bhi weakness suggest karte hain. Pehle broken 200-day moving average ab initial resistance ban gaya hai 191.74 par, aur additional support 196.83 par hai, jo stronger rebounds ko limit kar sakti hai aur bearish sentiments ko active rakhti hai. Targets ab 185.66 aur 183.56 par hain. RSI filhal oversold territory mein hai, jo potential rally ko indicate karta hai.

**Market Influences**

GBP/JPY ki movement UK Parliamentary Elections aur various technical analysis indicators se influence hoti hai. Construction PMI rates initially buyer activity ko support kar sakte hain; lekin broader expectations for a weakened UK Pound shayad strategic sell stance ko prompt karen. Market shifts ko monitor karke aur responsive rah kar traders apne positions ko advantageously position kar sakte hain.

**Trading Strategy**

H1 timeframe chart par ek resistance area FTR/DBD region mein bana hai, jahan price ab pehle support break karne aur nayi lower high banane ke baad wait kar rahi hai. Yeh area SND traders ke liye significant hai, kyunki yeh market mein enter karne ke liye ek achhi risk-reward opportunity provide karta hai.

Ab yeh ek moka hai ke hum sell aur buy karne ke opportunities dekhein. Hamein zaroori areas ke baare mein pata hona chahiye. Yahan GBP/JPY market ka mapping hai: H4 chart par, price movement downtrend form kar rahi hai aur yeh kamzori kaafi significant hai, is liye peechle price movement ne 208.12 ke price par resistance ya higher high form kar liya hai. Ab price apne highest price banane ke baad retrace kar rahi hai. Wo area jo hamein consider karna chahiye aur jahan main market mein enter kar sakta hoon, wo DBD area ke range mein hai jo 196.73 par hai aur major resistance 201.56 par hai jo SSR line aur Trend Channel line ke parallel hai. Yeh imkaan hai ke price is area mein enter kare to price kamzor ho sakti hai. Agar hum large timeframe dekhein, yeh resistance area nayi supply include kar chuka hai.
Additional indicators mein Relative Strength Index (RSI) period 5 ko dekhte hain jahan price level 30 se neeche gir chuki hai jo market ke bearish trend mein hone ki nishani hai. Simple Moving Average (SMA) 120 indicator jo trend change se pehle neeche move kar rahi thi, ab upwards lean kar rahi hai jo ek trend signal hai jo increase ki taraf indicate karta hai. To yeh conclusion nikala ja sakta hai ke H4 timeframe indicators mostly bullish trend show kar rahe hain. H1 timeframe chart par, resistance area dekha ja sakta hai jahan price FTR/DBD area ka wait kar rahi hai jo pehle support break karne ke baad new lower high form kar chuka hai. Is area ko SND traders (jaise ke main) market mein enter karne ke liye use karte hain kyunki is area mein humein beautiful Risk Reward mil sakti hai. Sell entry ke liye, aap pending sell limit order 196.73 ke price par rakh sakte hain, stop loss 197.70 par aur pehla take profit 191.20 par rakh sakte hain. Agar yeh area breakout ho jaye, to hum ek aur sell entry add kar sakte hain with target take profit at 185.55. Buy entry ke liye, aap 180.74 ke price par wait kar sakte hain with stop loss at 180.00 aur take profit ke liye hum next price confirmation dekh sakte hain

H1 chart. Main yeh umeed kar raha tha ke Friday ko price 199.107 se bohot zyada upar jayegi. Magar, yeh is value se upar nahi ja saki. Iss liye mujhe lagta hai ke price abhi bhi gir ke 194.70-194.170 tak jayegi. Yeh tab hoga agar Friday ko rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas paas ho sakti hai. ZUP indicator ek price movement ko bearish pattern ki taraf signal kar raha hai: bearish 1.618 * AB = CD, jahan point D ka extreme price value 199.260 hai. Toh is waqt, bearish pattern ab bhi kaafi relevant hai. Indicators ki category se aur ek vote decrease ke liye. Fast stochastic (5.3.3) ke readings 70.884 aur 67.9982 ek price movement ko overbought ki taraf signal kar rahe hain, slow stochastic (50.10.25) ke readings 50.7735 aur 46.6937 halfway hain oversold zone se overbought zone tak. Is tarah se, hum keh sakte hain ke stochastic south movement ke against hain, magar, overnight yeh signal line values change kar sakti hain, agar instrument ne continue kiya Friday evening ke jaise, toh fast stochastic (5.3.3) ki values change ho sakti hain, aur slow bhi change ho sakta hai. raha tha ke Friday ko price 199.107 se bohot zyada upar jayegi. Magar, yeh is value se upar nahi ja saki. Iss liye mujhe lagta hai ke price abhi bhi gir ke 194.70-194.170 tak jayegi. Yeh tab hoga agar Friday ko rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas Click image for larger version GBP/JPY pair ke favor mein strong market sentiment suggest karta hai. GBP/JPY mein uptrend traders ko multiple opportunities provide karta hai bullish price movements ka faida uthane ke liye. Key support aur resistance levels ko samajh kar aur respect kar ke traders strategically positions enter aur exit kar sakte hain, apne profit potential