جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Is hafte ke trading ke ikhtitam par, Japanese yen ke keemat baqaida daraf qisam ki doosri major currencies ke khilaaf thori dair ke liye izafa hua, jo ke apni 34 saalon ki kamzor tareen satah se thori si ijtimai keemat barh gayi, jab Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ne kaha ke agar Japanese yen ke rate ki kamzori ke baais unchi import ke costs ke zariye keemat mein izafa ka bana rahe, to markazi bank dobara interest rates ko barha sakta hai. Isi tarah, sterling currency pair ke keemat Japanese yen ke khilaaf GBP/JPY ne achanak farokht karne ke amal ka shikar ho gaya, jiske nateeje mein wo 190.29 ke darajay par pohanch gayi phir tezi se wapis 192.00 ke resistance ke darajay tak, tajwez ki analysis likhte waqt, aur is hafte ke munafa 192.80 ke resistance ke darajay tak barh gaya, aur haal hi ki technical analyzes aur muft trading salahiyat page ke zariye. Seedhe, maine har barhti hui satah se GBP/JPY pair ko bechne ki tajweez di.

Japanese central bank governor ne bhi yeh kaha ke Bank of Japan apne mahinayana izaafi aur price forecast ko agle haftay ke policy meeting ke liye dikhaye ga, ke yen ki taqwiyat ne maeeshat ko kis tarah asar andaaz kiya hai. Authorities ki dakhal dahi se dar bhi Japanese yen ko kuch support diya, baad ke mareez United States, Japan aur South Korea ke top maali uroojan ne is haftay ke meeting ke doran forex markets ko mawafiq karne ka ittefaq kiya.

Magar, Japanese currency apni 34 saalon ki kamzor tareen satah ke qareeb reh gayi, Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi keh rahe hain ke mustaqbil ki policy adjustment ka rukh aahista hone ka imkaan hai aur aik latazaad raftar ke sath nahi kiya ja sakta, aur is ke liye doosre major central banks ke policy cycle ki raftar ke sath mawafiq nahi hai.

Doosri taraf, yeh British pound ke performance ko mutasir karta hai. Is haftay ke consensus se zyada UK inflation report ne pehle isharaat di ke UK ki ghateen inflation trend rukne laga hai. British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ne CPI inflation ka ye news tarif ki ke March mein 3.2% year-on-year tak kami hui, February ki 3.4% se, lekin market ke reaction ka markazi nuktah yeh tha ke yeh figure 3.1% ke tawaqqu par zyada tha.

Tafseelat mein ghor karne se kai aur bullish surprises samne aaye, timely mahinayana prints ke saath CPI, core inflation aur services ka clear signs of resilience nazar aaya. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey ke reaction ne latest inflation figures par ummeed se bhara tha, unhone Washington mein apne saathi central bankers ko bataaya ke inflation tawaqqu par hai aur agle mahine mein tezi se kami ho gi.

Is se yeh maloom hota hai ke consensus ke umeedon ke mutabiq, inflation agle mahine 2.0% ke magic target se neeche girne wala hai, kyunki April ke domestic energy price cut ka bara asar hua. Lekin mayoosi mehsoos ho sakti hai. "Aaj ke bullish surprise ke mutabiq, hum umeed karte hain ke pehli reading 2% ke target se neeche May mein aaye gi, pehle April se mukhtalif," kaha hai Rob Wood, Pantheon Macroeconomics ke chief UK economist
Bank of England ko apna maqsood 2.0% tak inflation ko qaim rakhne ke liye core inflation dar mein mazeed kami honi chahiye. Core inflation kam hone ke liye, services inflation kam honi chahiye.

GBP/JPY H1 Time Frame:

Raat ko sabko shab-bakhair, GBP/JPY agar aap ghantawar chart dekhein, to aap ek uthne wale channel ka tameer kar sakte hain. Aaj, niche ki taraf chal kar, pair ne uthne wale channel ke nichle kinaray tak ek giravat ka samna kiya, yani ke 196.97 ke level tak. Is level tak pohanchne ke baad, pair ki giravat ruk gayi, is liye ab main yeh nahi kehta ke ek palat ho sakta hai aur daam oopar ki taraf chalne lagay. Agar pair uthna shuru karta hai, to oopar ki taraf chalte hue, daam uthne wale channel ke ooper kishtari ki taraf chal sakta hai, yani ke 199.55 ke level tak. Is level tak pohanchne ke baad, yeh mumkin hai ke pair mein palat ho aur daam neeche ki taraf chalne lagay, yani ke 198.27 ke level tak.

GBP/JPY Kal, maine ghantawar chart par ek uthne wale channel banaya aur umeed ki ke pair is channel ke ooper ke kinaray tak uthay. Magar yeh nikla ke raat ko daam ne neeche ki taraf chalna shuru kiya aur is channel ko neeche chor diya. Ab yeh mumkin hai ke agar pair neeche ki taraf chalna jaari rakhta hai, to ek giravat 191.45 ke level tak ho sakti hai, aur jab yeh level pohanch jata hai, to ek palat ho sakta hai aur daam oopar ki taraf chalne lagay. Aur main yeh bhi nahi kehta ke yeh giravat ho, agar daam abhi oopar ki taraf chalna shuru karta hai aur uthne wale channel mein dakhil hota hai, to yeh mumkin hai ke pair 199.69 ke level tak uthne lagay.

GBP/JPY H4 Time Frame:

Chalo, currency pair/instrument ko darmiyani mudium ke movement ke liye dekhte hain. Ek khaas channel indicator of linear and nonlinear regression, Extended Regression StopAndReverse, tajziya ke liye munasib hai, jise RSI (14) aur MACD indicators ke signals ke sath muntakhib entry point ki tasdeeq ke sath istemal kiya jata hai. Transaction se sab se behtar nikalne ka faisla karne ke liye, hum Fibonacci grid ko kal ke extreme marks ya aaj ke trading day ke hisaab se failayenge aur take profit ke liye sab se munasib intekhaab karenge. Linear regression channel chune gaye waqt frame (time-frame H4) ke liye uttar ki taraf muntakhib hai, jo ek mazboot kharidar ke maujoodgi ko dikhata hai aur market daam ke mutahrik quotation ko upar ki taraf torne ki mumkinat ko dikhata hai. Baraks, near future rukh ke paishgharah karne ke liye istemal kiya jane wala nonlinear channel (convex lines) kaafi nazar ata hai. Nonlinear regression channel ne golden line of the linear channel ko neeche se ooper kar liya hai aur daam ki iqtesadiyat mein izafa dikhata hai. Daam ne linear regression channel 2-nd LevelResLine ke laal resistance line ko tor diya, magar aala daam (HIGH) ka maximum quote value (HIGH) 200.606 tak pohanch gaya, iske baad usne apna izaafa band kar diya aur mustaqil taur par kamzor hota gaya. Ab instrument ek daam ki keemat par mojood hai 196.983 ke darje mein. Sab kuch ke baad, main umeed karta hoon ke market price quotes wapas aur band channel line 2-nd LevelResLine (194.027) FIBO level 38.2% ke neeche qadam rakhega aur neeche chalne lagayga golden average line LR of the linear channel 192.472 tak, jo FIBO level 23.6% ke sath milta hai. Ek aur argument transaction banane ke liye ye hai ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators bhi sahi dhang se sales mein dakhil hone ki tasdeeq karte hain, kyunke woh overbought zone mein hain.

GBP/JPY currency pair mein ek bechaini ka dor guzarna hai, haal hi mein barhne wale khatre ke jazbat aur kamzor Japanese Yen ki wajah se hasil hone wale faide ne ismein mazeed 0.29% ki quwwat ko barhaya. North American trading ke band hone tak pound ne 191.35 ke qareebi rozana kamzoriyon ko dobara test karne se bacha. Rozana ka chart GBP/JPY ke liye aik mukhtalif dor ka ishara deta hai. 192.00 ke darjay ko dobara hasil karne ke baad, pair ne aik neutral se thora bullish hawala bana liya hai. 192.24 ke April 4 ke buland level ko torne ke baad, pair ke samne 192.50 ke imtehaan ka darwaza khul sakta hai, jo 193.00 ke resistance level ka imtehaan le sakta hai. Aur mazeed upar jaane se pair ko 193.53 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Lekin, niche ke khatre mojud hain. 192.00 ke neeche girne se pair ko 191.14 ke support level ka samna ho sakta hai. Aur mazeed kamzori se 190.94 (Senkou Span A) aur 190.74 (Major Kijun-Sen) ka khel, 190.03 ke April 2 ke kamzor daraj ka agla mohtava ho sakta hai.

Haal ki quwwat ko aaj ka behad ahem US labor market report ke samne ek intezaar-o-ihtiyaat ke taur par tajzia kya ja sakta hai, jo Federal Reserve ke monetary policy stance ko kafi mutasir kar sakta hai. Halankeh, Bank of Japan ke haal ki interest rate ki barhne ke bawajood, Yen ki kamzori iss saal ke shuru mein ek pareshani hai. Jabke intervention ke dhamkian Yen ko abhi stable karne ka dawa karte hain, aik mazboot rebound Japan ki riayaat ko azma sakta hai. Technical indicators pair ke agle qadam par kuch rehnumai faraham nahi karte hain. Average Directional Index (ADX) 25 ke neeche rehta hai, jo aik saaf raasta ki kami ka ishara karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke aas paas harkat karta hai, jo market ke abhi ke halat ka bechaini ko zor se dalta hai. Khaas tor par, stochastick oscillator darmiyan ke qareeb hone par Yen aur pound ke darmiyan aik nazuk mawazan ka ishara deta hai. Agar bullish control banaye rakhein, to woh pair ko January 2024 ke buland daraj tak le jane ki koshish kar sakte hain, jo July 21, 2005 ko set kiye gaye us level ke resistance ko torne ki koshish kar sakta hai. Ye ek naye 2024 ke buland daraj ka imtehaan ka raasta bana sakta hai, agar pair mojooda buland daraj 193.52 ko guzarta hai.

GBP/JPY Currency Pair Analysis:

GBP/JPY currency pair mein hui haalat ne traders ka dhyan khinch liya hai, jisme exchange rate mein aham tabdeeliyan nazar aai hain, jahan tak volatility aur relative stability ka doran dikhai gayi hai. Aise harkat se market ke hissedar ke beech tajziyat mein izafa hua hai, jab wo in tabdiliyon ko driving factors ko samajhte hain. Iske ilawa, geopolitical events aur macroeconomic data releases currency pairs ke rukh ko shakal denay mein kirdar ada karte hain. Jab traders H1 time frame par GBP/JPY pair ko dekhte hain, to woh trend continuation ya reversal ke kisi bhi nishan ko keenly dekhte hain. Head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, aur breakouts jaise patterns ko potential trading opportunities ke liye dhyan se ghoor se dekha jata hai. Iske ilawa, traders key support aur resistance levels par bhi tawajjo dete hain, kyun ke in levels ke tor par breaches market sentiment mein significant shifts ka ishara kar sakti hain.

Currency pair/instrument ko medium term mein further movement ke lehaz se dekhte hain, to ek makhsoos channel indicator of linear aur nonlinear regression, Extended Regression StopAndReverse, analysis ke liye munasib hai, jisme selected entry point ka tasdiq RSI (14) aur standard settings ke MACD indicators se milta hai. Transaction se behtareen nikalne ke liye, hum Fibonacci grid ko kal ke ya aaj ke trading day ke extreme marks ke mutabiq stretch karenge aur take profit ke liye sab se munafa bhara option chunenge.

Select kiye gaye time frame (time-frame H4) par linear regression channel uttarward disha mein mudhara hai, jo ek mazboot kharidar ka mojooda hone aur market price quotes ka active tor par upward breakthrough hone ka ishara deta hai. Doosri taraf, near future direction ke liye tajziya karne ke liye istemal kiya gaya nonlinear channel (convex lines) mein kafi noticeable upward slope hai. Nonlinear regression channel ne linear channel ke golden line ko bottom se top tak cross kiya hai aur quotes mein izafa dikhata hai. Keemat ne linear regression channel ke laal resistance line 2-nd LevelResLine ko cross kiya, lekin 200.606 ke maximum quote value (HIGH) tak pahunchne ke baad, isne apna izafa rok diya aur barqarar girne lag gaya hai. Instrument ab ek keemat level par trade kar raha hai jo 196.983 hai. Upar diye gaye sab kuch ke madhya, mein umeed karta hoon ke market price quotes wapas aur consolidate honge channel line 2-nd LevelResLine (194.027) FIBO level 38.2% ke neeche aur mazeed down jaayenge golden average line LR of the linear channel 192.472 tak, jo ke FIBO level 23.6% ke saath milta hai. Ek aur dalil transaction karne ke liye yeh hai ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators ke indicators bhi entry mein sahi hone ki tasdiq dete hain, kyun ke woh overbought zone mein hain.

Pehla scenario ek reversal candle ka banao aur phir upar ki taraf price movement ka dobara shuru hona hai. Agar yeh plan kaamyaab hua, to mein umeed karta hoon ke price resistance level 199.777 par wapas jaayega. Is resistance level ke upar price ka band hona, mujhe aur uttarward movement ki umeed hai upar tak resistance level 207.995 tak. Is resistance level ke qareeb, mein agla trading setup ka intezaar karta hoon takay agle trading direction ko tay kiya ja sake. Bilkul, mein tasleem karta hoon ke designated uttarward target ke taraf price movement ke doran, southward pullbacks ho sakte hain, jinhe mein global northern trend ke andar upar ki taraf movement ke mukhtalif bullish signals ko talash karne ke liye istemal karonga.

Price ke paas aate hi, support level 192.949 ke qareeb jane ka ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke price is level ke neeche consolidate hota hai aur southward movement jari rakhta hai. Agar yeh plan kaamyaab hota hai, to mein umeed karta hoon ke price support level 190.036 ya support level 187.974 tak advance karega. In support levels ke qareeb, mein bullish signals ki talash jari rakhoonga, upar ki taraf price movement ka dobara shuru hone ki umeed rakhta hoon. Seedhe shabdon mein, aaj ke din, mujhe kuch bhi local tor par dilchasp nahi nazar aata. Overall, mein global northern trend ko jaari rakhne ki taraf mael hoon, lekin kharidne ke options ko dekhne ke liye, mein neeche ke nazdeeki support levels se clear reversal candle ki formation dekhna chahunga.

EUR/GBP ke baare mein kal, ek halka uttarward retracement ke baad, price ulte ki aur apni confident southward movement jaari rakhi, jo ek full bearish candle ke surat

GBP/JPY ke chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke abhi aik mukhtalif dor ka ishara aa raha hai. Jab pair ne 192.06 ke darjay ko dobara hasil kiya, to iska matlab hai ke ab market mein aik naya trend shuru ho sakta hai. Is waqt, pair ne aik neutral se thora bullish hawala bana liya hai, jo ke traders ke liye kafi dilchasp ho sakta hai. Is dor mein, GBP/JPY ka trend kehte hain ke market ke participants ka sentiment badal raha hai. 192.06 ke darjay ko dobara hasil karna, jo ke pehle se tay hai, ek qayam ki nishani hai. Yeh darja ab aik support ka kaam kar sakta hai, jo ke traders ko bullish hone ke liye encourage karta hai. Neutral se thora bullish hawala, yani ke market mein kuch taraqqi ke liye jagah hai, lekin abhi tak koi waziha bullish trend nahi hai. Yeh ishara hai ke market mein kuch taraqqi ho sakti hai, lekin traders ko alert rehna chahiye kyun ke yeh sirf ek shuruaati nishani hai. Is dor mein, traders ko market ke movements ko dheyan se dekhna chahiye. Agar pair ne 192.06 ke darjay ko mazeed taqat se toorna shuru kiya, to yeh ek wazeh bullish signal hoga. Is surat mein, traders ko long positions lena ka faida ho sakta hai. Dusra tarika yeh hai ke traders market ke taraqqi par nazar rakhein. Agar pair mazeed upar jaata hai aur mazeed highs banata hai, to yeh ek aur bullish confirmation hoga. Is halat mein, traders ko trend ke sath jaane ka faida ho sakta hai. Magar, agar pair 192.06 ke darjay ko dobara toorna shuru karta hai, to yeh ek bearish signal ho sakta hai. Is surat mein, traders ko short positions lena ka faida ho sakta hai. Overall, GBP/JPY ke liye ab aik mukhtalif dor ka ishara hai. 192.06 ke darjay ko dobara hasil karne ke baad, pair ne aik neutral se thora bullish hawala bana liya hai. Traders ko market ke movements ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur trend ke hisaab se apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.

Is haftay ke trading ke doran, GBP/JPY currency pair ki keemat ka performance phelaya, lekin amooman trend ab bhi bullish hai, aur bull ke maqool mukhtalif resistance level tak punch gaye the, jaise ke 192.24, pehle ke analysis likhne ke waqt, 191.20 ke qareeb thahar gaya. Khatra pasandi aur Japanese yen ki kamzori, Japan ke market mein dakhal ke intezar mein, is haftay ko bull ne trend ko apne kabze mein rakha.
Maeeshat ki taraf aur global markasi bank policy ki future ke taraf. Major Bank of England survey inflation expectations mein kami ki tasdiq karta hai. Mazeed nishaan hain ke UK ke karobari inflation expectations jari rah rahe hain, jo ke yeh tasdeeq karte hain ke Bank of England June mein interest rates ko kum kar sakti hai. Is lehaz se, Bank of England ke dawr-e-tajziye mein Britain ke companies ke liye DMP survey ne agle saal ke consumer price index inflation expectations ko March mein 3.2% par gira diya, jo ke February mein 3.3% se kami hai.

Apni taraf, ma'aashiyat dan kehte hain ke inflation expectations hasool shuda inflation ka aham hissa hain, jo ke matlab hai ke girte hue inflation expectations yeh nishaan hain ke Bank of England apni raah par hai inflation ko 2.0% tak laane ki. Economic calendar data ke natayej ke mutabiq, British Consumer Price Index ke liye teen saalon ke liye inflation expectations March tak 2.7% par gire, yaani February ke teen maheenon ke mukablay mein 0.1 percentage points kam. Halankeh inflation expectations girte hue hain, lekin yeh darmiyani muddat ke expectations bank ke 2.0% ke nishan se ooncha rehte hain. Bank of England ke kuch members ne haal hi mein dawa ki hai ke 2.0% ko hasil karne ke liye interest rates ko lambi dour ke liye 5.25% par rakhna zaroori hai, jabke doosre jaise Governor Andrew Bailey June mein rate cut ki taraf ja rahe hain .

Magar, Britain ki companies mein inflation expectations ki trend aur dynamics saaf nazar aati hai. Special price inflation ka saalana rate March ke teen maheenon tak 4.1% par muntazir tha, February ke teen maheenon tak 4.3% ke mukablay. Lekin mukhya aistadal pressure, wage growth, uncha hai, lekin niche ki taraf ja raha hai. Saalana wage growth March ke teen maheenon tak 6.4% tak pahunch gaya, jo ke February ke teen maheenon ke mukablay 0.3 percentage points kam hai. Teen maheenon ke averages ke mutabiq, UK ke businesses apne pay growth ko agle 12 maheenon mein 1.5 percentage points se kam hone ki umeed rakhte hain. Agle saal ki wage growth ki umeed teen maheenon ke moving average ke mutabiq 4.9% tak giri.

GBP/JPY


GBPJPY ka ghanton ke chart par Jumeraat ko aghaz giriftar hone ke saath ek kamiyat se shuru hui. Jodi ne 190.796 ke support tak pohancha aur phir yeh support toota. Yeh toot jane ka khilaf asar sabit hua aur is tootne par ek khareed signal 191.288 ke rukh tak aya, yeh khareed signal kaam kar gaya. Phir resistance 191.288 bhi ghalati se toota. 150.796 ke support ke saamne ek khareed signal tha, phir yeh khareed signal bhi kaam kar gaya. Phir keemat support se palti aur resistance 191.288 ko tor diya. Agar yeh darjat ke upar trade karta hai, agar tootne wale darja par wapas laut kar palti lagata hai, to somvar ke liye kharidne ka maqsad hoga resistance 191.919. Agar yeh 191.288 ke neeche wapas lautata hai, yani agar tootne ka jhansa hai aur keemat tootne ko tasdeeq karti hai, to farokht ka maqsad support 190.796 hoga.

GBP/JPY pair ke liye, mere shumali manzil mein hadaf lagbhag ek shakal aur uttar mein waqf hai aur yeh resistance level 192.90 hai, jahan main GBPJPY pair ka intezar karunga ke wo 191.57 ke band hone se uthe. Usi waqt, be shak, aapko samajhna hoga ke 191.00 ke bunyadi takkar bhi ho sakti hai aur yeh amlan, taknikan bhi barabri ka hai, lekin main samajhta hoon ke GBP/JPY pair current levels 191.57 se 191.00 ke support tak ek bhi choti palti nahi dikhayega. Mere liye ab sab se ahem sawal yeh hai ke jab jodi 192.89 par resistance tak pohanchegi, to technique ke mutabiq resistance se rebound par bechna mumkin hoga, aur asas ke mutabiq wo GBP/ JPY ko bohot lamba waqt tak uttar khinch sakte hain.

Technical analysis of the GBPJPY pair

Daily chart




Yeh mahina, jod ki keemat ka maamla kar raha hai aur kuch ahem aqsaam ki iqtisadi taraqqiyan hain. Aap ne jo bullish channel pattern zikar kiya hai woh overall ek urooj ki raahat ka andaza deta hai, lekin haal ki keemat ka amal yeh darust karta hai ke kuch neechay ki dabaav aa raha hai jab woh upper channel lines ke qareeb pohnchti hai. Neechay channel lines aur maheena support level of 191.20 tak girna baqaaida in levels ke ahmiyat ko numayan karta hai ke woh keemat ka amal ko kaise mutasir karte hain.

Lower channel lines aur maheena support level se wapas aana darust support ko indicate karta hai us ilaake mein, jo ke keemat ka aik izafa ke lehaz se le kar maheena pivot level tak pohanchne mein madadgar hota hai. Lekin maheena pivot level par milti hui rukawat yeh darust karta hai ke aik mumkin saal ke baqi dinon ke lehaz se ek neechay tareeqa, channels ko torne aur maheena ke baqi hisse ke liye neechay ka trend jaari rakhne ka.

Iqtisadi lehaz se, Britain ke doosray bara mortgage farahm karne wale ne gharo mein shadeed mufaad ke dar se rishton par karne se inkaar kar diya hai, tareefon ke farqat se darrpaar - aur is wajah se naqdi farokht ke - banane ke. In silsile mein, Nationwide Property Risk Management ke sarbra Rob Stevens, Nationwide Building Society mapping technology ka istemal kar rahi hai jis se har ghar ka individua pata chalta hai ke woh sailaab ke liye khatre mein hain. Company us ghar ko istikhaara faraham karne se inkaar kar degi jo woh buland khatra samajhti hai. "Agar hum 40 saal ki mortgage kar rahe hain, aur kuch hai jo mujhe maloom hai ke ek client ke liye kuch badal sakta hai, toh main woh nahi jaanta," unho ne zyada kaha. Unhone yeh bhi shamil kiya hai ke woh khud un khareedaron ko phone karke unhein is baat ki khabar dete hain jab unke potenhal ghar sailaab ke khatre mein hote hain.

Britain mein pichle 18 maahon mein qareeban 7,000 ghar aur karobar ghar baarish ke shikar hue hain, jo sab se barish wale hain. Isi liye property insurers ne 2023 mein reekord 2.55 billion (£3.2 billion) gharelu insurance ke dawaat diye, jo ke 2022 ki 10% izafah ke hamrah khilwad Babbitt, Kieran aur Debbie se hui.

British Pound/Japanese Yen. Ghanto ke waqtframe par currency pair ke rawaiye ka tajziya karne ke baad, main market mein dakhil hone ka maqsad farokht se khud ko bohot mantig lene ke liye samajhta hoon. Main kyun yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke choti farokht abhi mere liye sab se zyada mumkin hai? Mere asal arguments neeche diye gaye nataij par mabni hain:

1. Keemat 200 douranay wala Moving Average (MA) ke neeche hai, jo ke jari bearish trend ko zyada stress deta hai.
2. Pichle din ke doosre hisse mein, yeh joda mool ke darje ko neeche gir gaya tha aur trading din ko uske neeche hi band kiya gaya tha bhi
3. Din ke doran keemti jhatkon ne qareeb qareeb lower Bollinger Band tak pohanch gaye thay, jo ek bearish jazbat ko ishara dete hain aur aala tadad mein is instrument ka izafa jaari rahne ka zyada imkan dikhate hain.
4. Trading mein, main hamesha Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ke readings ka khaas tawajju dena aur overbought (70 se zyada) ya oversold (30 se kam) halaat shuru hone par trading mein dakhil hone se bachta hoon. Abhi, RSI farokht ko inkar nahi karta kyunke yeh qabooli hadood ke andar hai.
5. Main take profit ko 211% Fibonacci level par rakhunga, jo keemat 189.392 ko mutabiq hai. Phir, hisse ko breakeven par laane ke baad, main stop loss ko mazeed southern Fibonacci retracement levels ki taraf chalaoonga




image_6851125.jpg






British Pound - Japanese Yen. Achi din aur ziada munafa ho! Abhi meri trading strategy Heiken Ashi, TMA, aur RSI indicators ki milaap par mabni hai, jo kehta hai ke currency pair/instrument ko bechnay ka sahi waqt hai, kyun ke system ke mutabiq aaye signals ke mutabiq bears ne waqiyat ka rukh badal diya hai, jis se moment mein bechna sab se ahem ho gaya hai. Heiken Ashi mombatiyan, jo ke qadeem Japanese mombatiyon se behtar tor par qeemat ke hawalay se achaal ki taraf ishaarat deti hain, taqreeban waqtan-fa-waqtan ulatne wale points, correction pullbacks, aur impulsive breakouts ko waqt par pehchane mein madad karti hain. Triangular Moving Average (TMA) ka linear channel indicator, jo ke Moving Averages par mabni hui hain aur chart par mojood support aur resistance lines ko draw karta hai, trading mein shandar madad faraham karta hai, asset ke movement ke maqami hudood ko dikhate hue. Aakhri signal filtering aur trade mein dakhil honay par faisla karne ke liye, RSI oscillator istemal kiya jata hai, jo traded pair ke overbought aur oversold zones ko darust taur par nishan deta hai. Mere khayal mein, aise trading tools ka intikhab technical analysis ke amal ko kafi behtar banata hai aur ghalat market dakhilay se bachata hai.

GBPJPY KI TAKNIKI TAALEEM:




GBPJPY ka H1 waqt frame ne halat-e-bazaar ki halchal ki wajah se tawajjo hasil ki hai. Ye maqala bazaar ki harakat ke peshghamati tabdeelon aur trends par roshni dalta hai. Bazaar margheen khaali ke saath khula, jis ne din ke karobar ki faalat ka manshoor tayar kiya. Asian session ke doran, kharidar taaqat ka izhar karte hue qareebi resistance level ki taraf dabaav daal rahe the. Ye pehli rawnak aise karobar karne walon ke liye mumkinah mawafiqat ki talaash karne walon ke liye numainda rahe. Meri tashreeh ke mutabiq, GBPJPY ke liye ek mawafiq nazar ka tajurba hai, mukhtalif factors ke saath mazboot kiya gaya hai. Hal hal ki keemat ki harakat, chaar musalsal bullish shamaon ke sath, aik mumkinah tor par breakout scenario ko darust karti hai. Ye trend bazaar mein kaamil mein tasalsul ko darust karta hai, investoron ke darmiyan currency pair ke performance ke mutaliq umeed afzai ko zahir karta hai. Is ke ilawa, haal ki takhliqat ne GBPJPY par bullish nazariyat ko himayat di hai. Ye indicators asal bazaar ki idaaron ke musammar dynamics mein qimati andaze faraham karte hain, tajziya ko barqi bana dete hain. Karobar karne walay in indicators ka faida utha sakte hain taake unko sahi faislon par moharat hasil ho sake aur bazaar mein mojood mumkinah mawafiqat se faida utha sakein.








Qareebi resistance level karobar karne walon ke liye aham nukaat ki tawajjo ka markaz banata hai. Is level ke ird gird ke keemat ki harkat nikaat ki quwwat ke bare mein qeemati isharaat faraham kar sakti hai. Is ke ilawa, is resistance level ke oopar guzar jana GBPJPY ke liye mazeed upri kefiyat ki nishandahi kar sakta hai. Halankeh bullish nazariyat mawafiq mawafiq mawaqif pesh karta hai, lekin karobar karne walon ko iltija hai ke juddi khatron ko mad-e-nazar rakhen. Bazaar ki behtari, qoumi mawaqif aur iqtisadi dastaweez ke jariye sab mila kar GBPJPY ki performance par asar daal sakte hain. Is liye, khatarnak zarar mukhafa tadabeer ko amal mein laana farz hai taake karobar ke maqamat ko bachane ke liye. GBPJPY H1 waqt frame par ek ummeed afzai nazar ka manzar hai, jo ke bullish momentum aur musarrif technical indicators ke zariye mawafiq tajziya karta hai. Karobar karne walon ko keemati resistance levels ke ird gird keemat ki harkaton ko qareeb se nazarandaz karna chahiye, taake mumkinah mawafiqat se faida utha sakein jabke khatron ko mukammal taur par kamyaab tareeqon se kam karne ke liye. Maloomat hasil karke aur bazaar ke dynamics ke mutabiq tabdeeli karke, karobar karne walay GBPJPY ke mazeed tafseelaat mein iltija dene wale taur par raftar mein rah sakte hain.

GBP/JPY ke taraqqi raftar mein izafa hone ki wajah se GBP/JPY exchange rate mein aham kami aayi. UK aur Japan ke darmiyan faiz daro ke ummeedat mil jaane ke natayej mein kam hone se investors ko GBP/JPY ko qaim rakhne ka silsila kamzor ho gaya. UK mein kam tajawazat se nuksan ki tawajjo par gumaan tha ke Bank of England June mein faiz daro ko khatam kardegi. Yeh pond ko kamzor kar deta hai kyun ke kam faiz daro amooman foreign investment ko kam kar dete hain. Mukhtalif taur par, Bank of Japan ne haal hi mein faiz daro ko ek bohot hi kam manfi se barha diya. Yeh amal investors ko yeh sochne par majboor kar diya ke kya yeh ek martaba ka waqiya hai ya phir yeh uchit daro ki taraf lamba arsa ka rujhan hai, jo ke yen ko qeemat mein izafa kar sakta hai. Markazi bank ke bayanat ne exchange rate ko khas tor par mutasir kiya. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey ne do ya teen faiz daro ki kata'i ummeedon ko "maqool" qarar diya, jo ke June mein ek faiz dar ko lekar shakshiyat ko mazeed chadhane ka sabab bana. Is ke ilawa, Thursday ko jaari kamzor services PMI data ne UK ki iqtisadiya tasawar ko kamzor kiya, aur faiz dar mein izafa ki sambhavna ko barha diya. UK services PMI maqool tajawuzat aur pehle ke reading se kam tak gira. Magar, UK ki iqtisadi surat-e-hal bilkul andheray mein nahi hai. The Guardian ke mutabiq, UK ke baray tareen qumi imarat tanzeem ke tajziya ke mutabiq, pehli dafa January 2023 se barh chuki hain. Yeh Bank of England ke qarz dene ke data ke mutabiq achanak faiz daro mein izafa ki surge ko dikhata hai jo February mein, September 2022 se, un ki buland tareen satah tak pohanch gayi.

Takneekee ishaaroon ko dekhte hue, bazaar be fikri nazar aata hai. Average Directional Action Index (ADX) 25 ke neeche rehne se ek range-bound market ka zahir hai. Isi tarah, RSI 50 ke aas paas manfi hai jis se investors ke darmiyan halat ka abhi rukh maloom hota hai. Sab se ahem baat, Stochastic indicator darmiyan mein nazdeek qareebi nazar ata hai jo ke GBP/JPY jodi mein ek nazuk mizaji ka izhar karta hai. Agar bullish investor phir se hosla afzai karein, toh woh shayad koshish kareinge ke GBP/JPY ko January 2nd, 2024 ke uptrend line ke upar le jaayein aur July 21st, 2005 ke low 192.57 ke dafa ke sath muqabla karein. Yeh naye 2024 ke high ko 193.52 ke dafa se upar le ja sakta hai, jahan 195.00 ka ilaqa agla mumkin nishana ho sakta hai.

GBPJPY

Is mahine mein, jodi ki keemat ek bullish channel pattern ke andar trade kar rahi hai, kyunke peechle do mahino ka keemat trend ko bullish maana jaata hai. Keemat ne kal upri channel lines ke nazdeeki resistance area mein trade shuru kiya. Keemat kal ke trading ke doran lagbhag 500 pips gir gayi, jab keemat ne neeche ke channel lines aur mahine ke support level 191.20 tak pohanch gayi. Keemat ne bounce kiya aur aaj ek mazboot support area mein trading shuru kiya, jo ke neeche ke channel lines aur mahine ke support level hain. Isse keemat mein izafa hua, aur ab keemat ne mahine ke pivot level tak pohanch gayi hai.

Ab keemat mahine ke pivot level se resistance ka samna kar rahi hai, jo keemat ko neeche le aane mein madadgar ho sakta hai taake channel ko todkar aur is mahine ke downward trend ko jaari rakhein. Agar aaj trading mahine ke pivot level 195.86 ke upar band hoti hai, to bullish scenario dastiyab hogi.

Maeeshat ke pehlu se, Britain ka doosra sab se bada mortgage provider ne gharo ke liye qarze dene band kar diye hain jo bahari badh ke khatre mein hain, kyunki dar hai ke aane waale saalon mein woh insure nahi kiye ja sakte - aur isliye bechnay ke layak nahi hain. Is maamle mein, Rob Stevens, Nationwide Property Risk Management ke head, ek interview mein kehte hain ke Nationwide Building Society mapping technology ka istemal karti hai takay akele gharo ko pani se nigraani mein rakhein. Company un gharo ko khareedne ke liye qarza dena inkar karegi jo unhein high-risk maanti hai. "Agar hum 40 saal ka mortgage kar rahe hain, aur kuch aisa cheez hai jisse mujhe pata hai ke client ke liye drastic taur par badal sakta hai, to main usse nahi jaanta," unhone yeh bhi kaha. Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke woh khud buyers ko phone karte hain unhein warn karne ke liye jab unke potential ghar pani se khatre mein hote hain.

Britain mein peechle 18 mahino mein lagbhag 7,000 ghar aur karobaar doob gaye hain, jo record ban gaye hain. Isliye property insurers ne 2023 mein ghar ke insurance claims par rekordi £2.55 billion ($3.2 billion) chukaaye, jo ki Storms Babbitt, Kieran, aur Debbie ke nuksaan se 2022 ke comparison mein 10% ki izafa hai.

jab wo in tabdiliyon ko driving factors ko samajhte hain. Iske ilawa, geopolitical events aur macroeconomic data releases currency pairs ke rukh ko shakal denay mein kirdar ada karte hain. Jab traders H1 time frame par GBP/JPY pair ko dekhte hain, to woh trend continuation ya reversal ke kisi bhi nishan ko keenly dekhte hain. Head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, aur breakouts jaise patterns ko potential trading opportunities ke liye dhyan se ghoor se dekha jata hai. Iske ilawa, traders key support aur resistance levels par bhi tawajjo dete hain, kyun ke in levels ke tor par breaches market sentiment mein significant shifts ka ishara kar sakti hain.
Currency pair/instrument ko medium term mein further movement ke lehaz se dekhte hain, to ek makhsoos channel indicator of linear aur nonlinear regression, Extended Regression StopAndReverse, analysis ke liye munasib hai, jisme selected entry point ka tasdiq RSI (14) aur standard settings ke MACD indicators se milta hai. Transaction se behtareen nikalne ke liye, hum Fibonacci grid ko kal ke ya aaj ke trading day ke extreme marks ke mutabiq stretch karenge aur take profit ke liye sab se munafa bhara option chunenge.

Select kiye gaye time frame (time-frame H4) par linear regression channel uttarward disha mein mudhara hai, jo ek mazboot kharidar ka mojooda hone aur market price quotes ka active tor par upward breakthrough hone ka ishara deta hai. Doosri taraf, near future direction ke liye tajziya karne ke liye istemal kiya gaya nonlinear channel (convex lines) mein kafi noticeable upward slope hai. Nonlinear regression channel ne linear channel ke golden line ko bottom se top tak cross kiya hai aur quotes mein izafa dikhata hai. Keemat ne linear regression channel ke laal resistance line 2-nd LevelResLine ko cross kiya, lekin 200.606 ke maximum quote value (HIGH) tak pahunchne ke baad, isne apna izafa rok diya aur barqarar girne lag gaya hai. Instrument ab ek keemat level par trade kar raha hai jo 196.983 hai. Upar diye gaye sab kuch ke madhya, mein umeed karta hoon ke market price quotes wapas aur consolidate honge channel line 2-nd LevelResLine (194.027) FIBO level 38.2% ke neeche aur mazeed down jaayenge golden average line LR of the linear channel 192.472 tak, jo ke FIBO level 23.6% ke saath milta hai. Ek aur dalil transaction karne ke liye yeh hai ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators ke indicators bhi entry mein sahi hone ki tasdiq dete hain, kyun ke woh overbought zone mein hain

Pehla scenario ek reversal candle ka banao aur phir upar ki taraf price movement ka dobara shuru hona hai. Agar yeh plan kaamyaab hua, to mein umeed karta hoon ke price resistance level 199.777 par wapas jaayega. Is resistance level ke upar price ka band hona, mujhe aur uttarward movement ki umeed hai upar tak resistance level 207.995 tak. Is resistance level ke qareeb, mein agla trading setup ka intezaar karta hoon takay agle trading direction ko tay kiya ja sake. Bilkul, mein tasleem karta hoon ke designated uttarward target ke taraf price movement ke doran, southward pullbacks ho sakte hain, jinhe mein global northern

iqtisadi taraqqiyan hain. Aap ne jo bullish channel pattern zikar kiya hai woh overall ek urooj ki raahat ka andaza deta hai, lekin haal ki keemat ka amal yeh darust karta hai ke kuch neechay ki dabaav aa raha hai jab woh upper channel lines ke qareeb pohnchti hai. Neechay channel lines aur maheena support level of 191.20 tak girna baqaaida in levels ke ahmiyat ko numayan karta hai ke woh keemat ka amal ko kaise mutasir karte hain.
Lower channel lines aur maheena support level se wapas aana darust support ko indicate karta hai us ilaake mein, jo ke keemat ka aik izafa ke lehaz se le kar maheena pivot level tak pohanchne mein madadgar hota hai. Lekin maheena pivot level par milti hui rukawat yeh darust karta hai ke aik mumkin saal ke baqi dinon ke lehaz se ek neechay tareeqa, channels ko torne aur maheena ke baqi hisse ke liye neechay ka trend jaari rakhne ka.

Iqtisadi lehaz se, Britain ke doosray bara mortgage farahm karne wale ne gharo mein shadeed mufaad ke dar se rishton par karne se inkaar kar diya hai, tareefon ke farqat se darrpaar - aur is wajah se naqdi farokht ke - banane ke. In silsile mein, Nationwide Property Risk Management ke sarbra Rob Stevens, Nationwide Building Society mapping technology ka istemal kar rahi hai jis se har ghar ka individua pata chalta hai ke woh sailaab ke liye khatre mein hain. Company us ghar ko istikhaara faraham karne se inkaar kar degi jo woh buland khatra samajhti hai. "Agar hum 40 saal ki mortgage kar rahe hain, aur kuch hai jo mujhe maloom hai ke ek client ke liye kuch badal sakta hai, toh main woh nahi jaanta," unho ne zyada kaha. Unhone yeh bhi shamil kiya hai ke woh khud un khareedaron ko phone karke unhein is baat ki khabar dete hain jab unke potenhal ghar sailaab ke khatre mein hohai
ai

Britain mein pichle 18 maahon mein qareeban 7,000 ghar aur karobar ghar baarish ke shikar hue hain, jo sab se barish wale hain. Isi liye property insurers ne 2023 mein reekord 2.55 billion (£3.2 billion) gharelu insurance ke dawaat diye, jo ke 2022 ki 10% izafah ke hamrah khilwad Babbitt, Kieran aur Debbie se hui.


Начни зарабатывать

Yeh mahina, jod ki keemat ka maamla kar raha hai aur kuch ahem aqsaam ki iqtisadi taraqqiyan hain. Aap ne jo bullish channel pattern zikar kiya hai woh overall ek urooj ki raahat ka andaza deta hai, lekin haal ki keemat ka amal yeh darust karta hai ke kuch neechay ki dabaav aa raha hai jab woh upper channel lines ke qareeb pohnchti hai. Neechay channel lines aur maheena support level of 191.20 tak girna baqaaida in levels ke ahmiyat ko numayan karta hai ke woh keemat ka amal ko kaise mutasir karte hain.
Lower channel lines aur maheena support level se wapas aana darust support ko indicate karta hai us ilaake mein, jo ke keemat ka aik izafa ke lehaz se le kar maheena pivot level tak pohanchne mein madadgar hota hai. Lekin maheena pivot level par milti hui rukawat yeh darust karta hai ke aik mumkin saal ke baqi dinon ke lehaz se ek neechay tareeqa, channels ko torne aur maheena ke baqi hisse ke liye neechay ka trend jaari rakhne ka.

Iqtisadi lehaz se, Britain ke doosray bara mortgage farahm karne wale ne gharo mein shadeed mufaad ke dar se rishton par karne se inkaar kar diya hai, tareefon ke farqat se darrpaar - aur is wajah se naqdi farokht ke - banane ke. In silsile mein, Nationwide Property Risk Management ke sarbra Rob Stevens, Nationwide Building Society mapping technology ka istemal kar rahi hai jis se har ghar ka individua pata chalta hai ke woh sailaab ke liye khatre mein hain. Company us ghar ko istikhaara faraham karne se inkaar kar degi jo woh buland khatra samajhti hai. "Agar hum 40 saal ki mortgage kar rahe hain, aur kuch hai jo mujhe maloom hai ke ek client ke liye kuch badal sakta hai, toh main woh nahi jaanta," unho ne zyada kaha. Unhone yeh bhi shamil kiya hai ke woh khud un khareedaron ko phone karke unhein is baat ki khabar dete hain jab unke potenhal ghar sailaab ke khatre mein hote hain

Britain mein pichle 18 maahon mein qareeban 7,000 ghar aur karobar ghar baarish ke shikar hue hain, jo sab se barish wale hain. Isi liye property insurers ne 2023 mein reekord 2.55 billion (£3.2 billion) gharelu insurance ke dawaat diye, jo ke 2022 ki 10% izafah ke hamrah khilwad Babbitt, Kieran aur