USD/CAD ke price action ko analyze karenge. USD/CAD pair mazid mazboot hota nazar aa raha hai kyunki Fed shayad September mein rate cuts mein itni aggression nahi dikhayega. Traders ISM Manufacturing PMI ke release ka intezar kar rahe hain jo Tuesday ko aayega, US employment data ke pehle. Canadian dollar ki girawat, jo ke commodity prices ke asar se hai, ko oil prices ke barhne se modulate kiya ja sakta hai. Monday ke holiday data ne USD/CAD ki demand ko thoda kam kiya, jis se price movement dheemi ho gayi hai, aur pair ab 1.3501 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Ek chaar hafton ki rally ke baad, jisme Canadian dollar ne 22-mahiyon ke lows se 5-mahiyon ke highs tak 3.63% ki rise dekhi, ab iski momentum ruk gayi lagti hai. Short-term trends ab dollar bulls ke haq mein hain, aur USD/CAD 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.3617 ko test karne ki position mein hai.
Agar pair 1.3486-1.3516 range ko break kar ke solid foothold bana le, to yeh 1.3566-1.3606 resistance zone ki taraf barh sakta hai. Jab ke initial price movement is expectation se milti hai, yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke kya pair is momentum ko barqarar rakhega ya phir 1.3486 level tak wapas aayega, jo ke ek false breakout ka nishan ho sakta hai. Agar pair resistance zone mein chala jata hai, to USD/CAD 1.3701-31 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Lekin agar 1.3621 ke upar se false breakout hota hai, to girawat ka potential hai. Agar pair 1.3516 ke upar sustain nahi kar pata, to yeh ek sell signal trigger karega, jo ke downward trend ko indicate karega. 1.3618 ke upar false breakout ke case mein bhi sell signal dekhne ko mil sakta hai, aur ek brief bullish correction ke baad decline ho sakta hai. Yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke recent correction ke baad further declines ka potential hai, aur agar buyers growth drive karne ki koshish karte hain, to exchange rate eventually downward trend ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.
Agar pair 1.3486-1.3516 range ko break kar ke solid foothold bana le, to yeh 1.3566-1.3606 resistance zone ki taraf barh sakta hai. Jab ke initial price movement is expectation se milti hai, yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke kya pair is momentum ko barqarar rakhega ya phir 1.3486 level tak wapas aayega, jo ke ek false breakout ka nishan ho sakta hai. Agar pair resistance zone mein chala jata hai, to USD/CAD 1.3701-31 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Lekin agar 1.3621 ke upar se false breakout hota hai, to girawat ka potential hai. Agar pair 1.3516 ke upar sustain nahi kar pata, to yeh ek sell signal trigger karega, jo ke downward trend ko indicate karega. 1.3618 ke upar false breakout ke case mein bhi sell signal dekhne ko mil sakta hai, aur ek brief bullish correction ke baad decline ho sakta hai. Yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke recent correction ke baad further declines ka potential hai, aur agar buyers growth drive karne ki koshish karte hain, to exchange rate eventually downward trend ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.
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