Usd/cad

USD/CAD

Canada ka June ke mahine ka retail sales data Canadian dollar (CAD) ki qeemat par asar dal sakta hai. Yeh umeed hai ke retail sales figures, jo ke consumer spending ka aik aham nishan hai aur jo inflationary pressures ko drive karti hai, ghir gayi hain. May mein 0.8% kami ke baad, consumer spending indicator ke 0.3% tak girne ka andaza hai. Kam retail sales ka matlab hai ke consumer spending power mein kami hui hai, jo ke Bank of Canada (BoC) se is saal mazeed interest rate reductions ke expectations ko barhata hai. Friday ke European session ke doran USD/CAD pair ka 1.3616 ke qareeb girna aur phir se 1.3600 se neeche close hona dekha gaya. Better-than-expected preliminary United States (US) S&P Global PMI for August ke bawajood Loonie asset ki kami dekhi gayi hai kyun ke US Dollar (USD) Thursday ke rebound move ko barqarar nahi rakh paayi. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke US dollar ki value ko chhe major currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai, lagbhag 101.30 tak gir gaya hai.

USD/CAD ka Broadening Triangle chart pattern ka daily breakdown foran paish kiya jaa raha hai. 1.3600 ke neeche, asset horizontal support ke qareeb hai jo ke pehle ke chart pattern mein dekha gaya tha. 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.3630 ke aas-paas hai, isliye overall trend negative hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strong downward trend dikha raha hai aur negative 20.00–40.00 area ke beech swing kar raha hai. Agar asset April 9 ke low 1.3540 ke neeche gir jata hai, to mazeed niche ki taraf move aayegi. Yeh asset ko March 21 ke low 1.3456 aur phir psychological support 1.3500 ki taraf push kar sakta hai. Ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke agar asset August 12 ke high 1.3750 ke upar rebound karti hai to 1.3800 ke round-level resistance aur April 17 ke high 1.3840 ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai

28 August 2024, 14:50

Canadian Dollar (CAD) aaj thoda slip ho gaya hai, kal 1.3450 se upar jaane ke baad, Scotiabank ke Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne ke mutabiq.

CAD Highs se thoda niche aaya lekin 1.34s ke upper range mein bana hua hai

“CAD ke losses grander scheme of things mein limited hain aur August ke dauran CAD ke solid gains zaroor CAD short positioning ke aggressive buildup ko squeeze kar rahe hain jo saal ke beech mein develop hua tha—just as CAD ne apni lowest point ko reach kiya.”

“Spot ab bhi hamari estimated fair value equilibrium 1.3521 se thoda niche trade kar raha hai, jo CAD short-covering gains ko kuch had tak constrain kar sakta hai. Aaj koi Canadian data reports nahi hain. Kal Q2 Current Account data aayega aur Friday ko June/Q2 GDP update hogi. Session ke dauran steady spot gains se shayad 1.3470/75 resistance ke upar thoda zyada traction develop ho sakti hai, jo 1.35+ ko regain karne mein madad karega.”

“Lekin USD ka rebound abhi tak August ke downtrend par koi significant impression nahi dal raha (resistance 1.3545/50 par hai). Support 1.3440 hai. USD short-term chart par oversold lag raha hai lekin USD ka downtrend ka strength abhi reversal ke liye bar ko kafi high rakhta hai.”

USD/CAD ek correction se guzra raha hai jo ek established downtrend ke andar hai. RSI oversold hai aur agar yeh zone se bahar nikalta hai to yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke higher correction unfold ho sakti hai.

USD/CAD ek long-term range bound market ke andar down leg ko pull back kar raha hai. Dono medium aur short-term trends bearish hain aur "the trend is your friend" ke mutabiq, odds zyada downside ki taraf favor karti hain.


Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator oversold zone mein hai, lekin pair pull back kar raha hai. Agar RSI oversold zone se nikal kar neutral territory (4-hour closing basis par) mein wapas aata hai, to yeh buy signal provide karega aur extended correction higher ko indicate karega. Aisi correction trendline tak wapas aa sakti hai, phir roll over kar sakti hai. Pull back khatam hone ke baad downtrend phir se dominate karne ke liye tayar hai, jo pair ko niche le ja sakta hai. Additional bearish confirmation tab milegi jab price 1.3441 ke neeche break karegi.

Agla bearish target 1.3380 hai – jo October 2023 aur January 2024 ke swing lows hain. Iske baad range ka bottom 1.3222 hai.

Agar price 1.3520 aur August ke move down ke trendline ke upar close hota hai, to bearish bias shak mein aa sakta hai aur early signs of reversal indicate ho sakte hain. Lekin, agar price 1.3593 ke upar break karti hai, to reversal ka zyada sure sign milega.

Main USD/CAD currency pair ke ongoing price action ka mutala kar raha hoon. USD/CAD pair ke liye hourly chart par ek uptrend nazar aa raha hai, aur price 134-period moving average se upar hold kar raha hai, jo is trend ki tasdeeq karta hai. Lekin, chhote timeframe par, price 134-period moving average se niche close hua hai, jo ek potential correction ko zahir karta hai. Price 1.3811 se niche consolidate karega, isliye bechne ka sochna munasib hoga. Agar price 1.3866 se upar stabilize ho jaye, toh ek alternative purchase option consider kiya jayega. Abhi, hourly uptrend my sales priority hain. USD/CAD chart mein bearish formation nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke agar price 1.3878 accumulation area ke upar maintain nahi karta, toh price decline kar sakta hai. Agar price yahan stabilize nahi hota, toh yeh pehle upar ki taraf test karne ke liye 1.3878 ko rise kar sakta hai.
Agar Price Is Level Ko Cross Nahi Karta

Agar price is level ko cross nahi karta, toh yeh accumulation zone 1.3732 ke aas-paas descend kar sakta hai. Chart yeh indicate karta hai ke USDCAD upward push kar sakta hai, khususan jab sellers unload kar chuke hain. Lekin, support zone 1.3776-1.3806 se niche drop karne ke liye kafi balance hona chahiye, aur sellers achhe price ke liye hesitate kar rahe hain. Isliye, humay ye monitor karna chahiye ke kya ek broad range form hota hai ya koi maneuver market participants ko attract karta hai. 1.3776-1.3806 ke niche ek false break sell orders ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo growth momentum provide karega. Trend solid aur stable hai. Agar buyers is support zone se enter karte hain, toh price 1.361 tak drop kar sakta hai. Isliye, buyers ko bhi attract karne ka chance hai agar breakout 1.3881-96 ke upar hota hai. USD/CAD pair range

USD/CAD ke exchange rate ke baray mein humari guftagu ka markaz is currency pair ki abhi ki price action ki tajziya hai. Hal hi ke trading sessions mein, USD/CAD pair par notable downward pressure dekha gaya, jis ki wajah se yeh support level 1.3424-1.3439 ke range tak push ho gaya. Indicators yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke price trend mein local reversal ki potential hai. Agar pair ne resistance zone 1.3484 se 1.3514 ke darmiyan breach kar liya, to yeh agle resistance cluster 1.3564-1.3604 ki taraf advance karne ke imkaanat hain. Yeh point per US dollar ke Canadian dollar ke muqablay mein ubharne ke asraat zyada wazeh ho sakte hain. Agar pair ko is resistance area mein upward move ke douran selling pressure ka samna karna pare, to target zone 1.3699-1.3729 ho sakta hai. Yeh zone khaas ehmiyat ka haamil hai kyun ke is ko break karke price mazeed ooper ki taraf ja sakti hai jo ke is mahine ke shuruat ke highs ke qareeb hai.


Dusri taraf, agar price initial resistance zone ko test karne ke baad decline karna shuru kar deti hai, to yeh aur neeche jate hue long-term range ke lower boundary 1.3109-1.3219 ko target kar sakti hai. Mere tajziye ke mutabiq, market dynamics par response zaroori hai lekin is waqt USD/CAD chart ek bullish pattern bana raha hai, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh pair mazeed girawat ko resist kar sakta hai. Agar price apne current minimum se ooper stabilize ho jati hai, to hum upward trajectory mein continuation dekh sakte hain. Agar price accumulation area ke qareeb 1.3519 tak pohnch ke approximately 1.3474 tak descend hoti hai bina mazeed neeche jaye, to yeh pair rally kar ke 1.3582 mark tak pohnch sakta hai, is level ko test karne ke baad potential collapse ho sakta hai established minimum se neeche. Is ke baraks, agar pair bearish direction mein move karke formed minimum ke neeche stabilize ho jata hai, to yeh maujooda bullish scenario ko mukammal tor par invalidate kar sakta hai.

USD/CAD currency pair ka pricing behaviour abhi discuss kar rahe hain. USD/CAD pair ne apni decline ko continue rakha hua hai. Asian trading session mein, four-hour chart par bears ne 1.3487 support level (stop reversal 1/8) ko successfully breach kiya, jiss se further descent ka rasta khul gaya towards next critical level at 1.3426 (0/8). Is level par ek potential reversal ka chance hai resistance 1.3548 (2/8 rotation reversal) ki taraf, lekin abhi isko confirm karna jaldi hoga. Price outlook relatively stable hai. Humein market ki reaction 1.3426 level par monitor karni hogi aur kisi bullish pattern ki formation observe karni hogi. Isliye, main anticipate karta hoon ke decline 1.3323-1.3364 zone tak extend karega, jo monthly APR level 150% se align karta hai. Yeh lowest point nahin hoga, kyun ke upcoming correction substantial hone ki umeed nahi hai.


Niche ki momentum strong hai. Hourly chart par, price consistently three-day moving average se upar hold karne mein fail ho rahi hai. Breakout karne ki attempts hui hain, lekin sellers ne buyers ki efforts ko successfully counter kiya hai trend reverse karne ke liye. Aaj ka market action khaas taur par telling tha, kyun ke sellers ne pehle price ko day ke opening level se niche push kiya, phir ek zyada decisive downward move aaya. Iska natija yeh hai ke upward reversal ka koi indication nahi hai. Instrument upar ke section mein cautiously decline kar raha hai chart par. 1.3587 support level ko break karne ke baad, price sirf decrease nahi hui—woh plunge ho gayi. Oscillators bhi is baat ko support karte hain ke downward movement continue rehne ki likelihood zyada hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Loonie Strengthens Against Greenback

Canadian economy abhi tak US economy ki nisbat kamzor hai, labor market bhi ziada tez raftar se thanda ho raha hai, aur Bank of Canada ne pehle hi do martaba overnight rate kam kar diya hai aur abhi ke liye is easing cycle ko rokne ka koi irada nahi lagta. Phir bhi, USDCAD quotes mein girawat ka kya sabab hai?

Key Points

• Oil prices ya Trump trade ka USDCAD ke girawat se koi taluq nahi.
• BOC overnight rate ke 2025 ke darmiyan 3% tak girne ki umeed hai.
• Loonie pe speculative short positions ka jaldi khatam hona.
• USDCAD pair mein correction ki zaroorat hai; agar 1.3475 se upar jaye, toh kharidne ka acha mauka hai.

Weekly Canadian dollar fundamental forecast

Canadian dollar Forex pe August mein ek paheli bana hua hai. Guzishta mah mein USDCAD quotes mein taqriban 3% ki girawat dekhi gayi hai, halanke Canadian labor market US se ziada tez raftar se thanda ho raha hai, inflation musalsal kam ho rahi hai, aur Bank of Canada ke Fed se ziada aggressive monetary expansion karne ki umeed hai. Phir bhi, Canadian dollar ki kamyabi ke peeche kaunsa factor hai?

Jab USDCAD pair ne July mein 1.395 ke qareeb target haasil kar liya, toh is mein kafi girawat dekhi gayi. Kya rising oil prices ya Middle East mein barhtay huye geopolitical risks, ya phir Trump trade ka retreat ek game-changer bana? Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke GDP mein 1.6% ka izafa hua ho, jo ke Bank of Canada ke 1.5% growth ki projection se ziada hai.

Monetary policy ke hawale se, loonie apne US muqable mein peeche hai. Bloomberg ke experts ke mutabiq, borrowing cost 2025 ke darmiyan 4.5% se girkar 3% tak pohanch jayegi aur 2026 mein yeh average 2.75% tak ho sakti hai.

BOC overnight rate change and expectations

Futures market umeed kar rahi hai ke federal funds rate agle saal ke akhir tak 3.5% tak pohanch jayega. Yeh is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke Federal Reserve ka monetary expansion ka raftar Bank of Canada se ahista ho ga. Nazriyat ke lehaz se, is se USDCAD quotes mein izafa hona chahiye.

Canada ki hakoomat ke liye jaldi se monetary policy ko aasaan karne ke kai muwatir asbab hain. Labor market thanda ho raha hai, employment do consecutive months se kam ho raha hai aur berozgari 6.4% tak pohanch gayi hai, jo ke early 2022 ke baad se sab se unchi satah hai. Is ke ilawa, inflation ki raftaar July mein 2.5% tak girne ki umeed hai, jo ke March 2021 ke baad se sab se kam hai. US economy ki growth mein bhi suusti ayi hai, jo ke Canada ka primary trading partner hai. Ager Donald Trump election jeet jate hain, toh trade duties ke barhne ka bhi khaatara hai. Aakhir mein, Justin Trudeau ki hakoomat se logon ki nafrat barh rahi hai.

USDCAD pair ki girawat oil prices ke izafa par mabni nahi hai. Oil prices aur currency pair ke darmiyan correlation mein kafi kami ayi hai jab se US energy commodities ka net exporter ban gaya hai. Trump trade retreat ka kya hoga? Republican ke White House mein wapas anay ki soorat mein Canadian dollar ziada mutaasir nahi lag raha. Asal wajah speculative net shorts ke record ka tezi se unwinding hai. Yeh teesri haftay mein bhi kam ho rahi hai magar abhi bhi $12 billion par qaim hai, jo ke G10 currencies mein sab se bara bearish bet hai.

Weekly USDCAD Trading Plan

Forex market Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ko dobara evaluate kar raha hai, jis se US dollar mein kamzori ho rahi hai. Haal hi mein, Canadian dollar doosri currencies ki nisbat itna acha perform nahi kar raha. Misal ke tor par, Swedish krona aur yen ne guzishta mah mein 6% ka izafa dekha hai, jab ke franc aur Norwegian krona lagbhag 5% barh chuke hain. USDCAD pair ka downtrend abhi bhi barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai, aur correction isay rok nahi payega. Nateeja tan, short-term khareedari us waqt ki ja sakti hai jab pair 1.3475 ke level se upar jaye.

USD/CAD
CAD 1.3600 ke qareeb hai, jo Broadening Triangle chart pattern ke potential breakdown region ka ilaka hai. Investors ghor se Fed Powell ke JH Symposium mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain. Canadian Dollar ki qeemat par monthly Retail Sales data jo ke June ka hoga, ka asar parega.

USD/CAD pair 1.3600 se neeche gir gaya hai, jabke Friday ki European session mein short-lived pullback move se ye 1.3616 ke qareeb gaya tha. Loonie asset kamzor ho raha hai kyunke US Dollar (USD) Thursday ke recovery move ko hold karne mein nakam ho raha hai, jo ke better-than-estimated preliminary United States (US) S&P Global PMI for August ki wajah se tha.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay major currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb gir gaya hai. Greenback ko sidelines mein rehne ki umeed hai, kyunke investors ka dhyaan Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein speech par hai.

JH event mein, jo ke 14:00 GMT par hoga, Jerome Powell se umeed hai ke wo interest rates aur economic outlook par nayi guidance denge. Ye expect kiya ja raha hai ke Fed apne key borrowing rates ko September meeting se kam karna shuru kar dega, magar traders ab tak is baat par divide hain ke interest rate cuts ka size kitna hoga.

Dosri taraf, Canadian Dollar (CAD) par domestic monthly Retail Sales data ka asar hoga, jo ke 12:30 GMT par publish hoga. Retail Sales data, jo ke consumer spending ka ek ahem paimana hai aur inflationary pressures ko trigger karta hai, se umeed hai ke wo decline karega. Ye expect kiya ja raha hai ke consumer spending mein 0.3% ka contraction hoga, jabke May mein ye 0.8% gir gaya tha.



Retail stores par kam sales ka matlab hota hai ke households ki purchasing power kam ho rahi hai, jo ke is baat ki umeed dilata hai ke Bank of Canada (BoC) is saal mazeed interest rate cuts karega.

USD/CAD daily timeframe par Broadening Triangle chart formation ke breakdown ke qareeb hai. Ye asset 1.3600 se neeche mentioned chart pattern ke horizontal support ke qareeb hover kar raha hai.

Overall trend bearish hai kyunke ye 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.3630 ke qareeb hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish range mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke 20.00-40.00 ke range mein hai, aur ye firm downside momentum ko suggest karta hai.

Agar ye asset April 9 low of 1.3540 se neeche break kar jata hai, to iske mazeed girne ki umeed hai. Is se asset psychological support of 1.3500 tak gir sakta hai, aur phir March 21 low of 1.3456 tak.

Ek alternate scenario mein, agar recovery move August 12 high of 1.3750 se upar jata hai, to ye asset round-level resistance of 1.3800 aur April 17 high ke qareeb 1.3840 tak drive ho sakta hai.

USD/CAD

USDCHF pair ko agar H4 (four-hour) timeframe par dekha jaye, to ye ek baray zor daar bearish trend mein hai. Ye trend lower highs aur lower lows ke banne se pehchana ja sakta hai, jo ke forex market mein ongoing downward momentum ki nishani hoti hai.

**Price Action Analysis**

Price action, yani ke aik asset ke price ka waqt ke sath movement, market sentiment aur trend ke bare mein bohot kuch batata hai. USDCHF pair ki surathaal mein, lower highs aur lower lows ke banne ka matlab ye hai ke consistent bearish bias hai. Iska matlab ye hai ke har agla peak (high) pichlay peak se neeche hai, aur har trough (low) bhi pichlay trough se neeche hai. Ye pattern ye suggest karta hai ke sellers market mein dominate kar rahe hain, aur har naye movement ke sath price ko neeche dhakel rahe hain.

**Bearish Trend Indicators**

Is waqat ke bearish trend ke peeche kuch technical factors ka haath hai:

1. **Lower Highs aur Lower Lows**: Jaise ke pehle mention kiya, ye formations dikhate hain ke price consistently neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai. Lower highs ka matlab hai ke har rally pichlay se kamzor hai, aur lower lows ka matlab hai ke price ooper walay levels ko sustain nahi kar pa raha.

2. **Resistance aur Support Levels**: Ek bearish trend mein, pechle support levels resistance ban sakte hain. Agar price in levels ke paas aaye, to aksar wo in ko cross karne mein mushkil mehsoos karta hai aur direction reverse ho sakti hai. In levels ka observation karna important hai ta ke reversal points ya trend ke continuation ke bare mein insights mil sakein.

3. **Technical Indicators**: RSI (Relative Strength Index) ya MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) jese aam indicators bearish trend ko further confirm kar sakte hain. Agar RSI 30 se neeche hai, to ye suggest kar sakta hai ke pair oversold hai lekin bearish trend continue ho sakta hai. Isi tarah, agar MACD line signal line se neeche hai, to ye bearish momentum ko indicate karta hai.

4. **Volume Analysis**: Downtrends ke dauran trading volume mein izafa, bearish movement ki validity ko support karta hai. Agar price decline ke waqt volume spike ho, to ye suggest karta hai ke selling pressure strong hai aur shayad continue kare.

**Potential Market Scenarios**

1. **Continuation**: Agar ye bearish trend continue hota hai, to USDCHF pair naye lower lows dhoondh sakta hai kyun ke sellers control mein hain. Traders ko rallies ya resistance levels ke paas sell karne ka mauqa dhoondhna chahiye.

2. **Reversal**: Agar bearish trend kamzor padta hai, to shayad reversal ke signs dekhne ko milen. Traders ko signs par nazar rakhni chahiye jese ke higher highs ya higher lows ka ban'na, technical indicators mein bullish momentum ka crossover, ya significant support levels ka hold karna.

3. **Range-bound Market**: Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke pair range-bound phase mein chale jaye, jahan price established support aur resistance levels ke beech mein oscillate kare bina kisi clear trend ke. Yeh consolidation period ho sakta hai jab tak trend dobara shuru na ho jaye.



**Risk Management aur Trading Strategy**
Strong bearish trend mein risk management bohot zaroori hai. Traders ko stop-loss orders use karni chahiye ta ke unexpected reversals se bacha ja sake aur potential losses limit kiye ja sakein. Isi tarah, trailing stop ka istemal karna madadgar ho sakta hai ta ke price desired direction mein move karte hue profits secure kiye ja sakein.

Ye bhi zaroori hai ke un fundamental factors par nazar rakhi jaye jo USDCHF pair ko impact kar sakte hain, jese ke economic data releases, geopolitical events, ya central bank decisions. Ye factors market sentiment ko influence kar sakte hain aur trend ko potentially alter kar sakte hain.

Summary mein, current H4 timeframe analysis ke mutabiq USDCHF pair ek robust bearish trend mein hai jise lower highs aur lower lows characterize karte hain. Traders ko technical indicators, support aur resistance levels, aur market volume par nazar rakhni chahiye ta ke informed trading decisions le sakein. Achhi risk management practices maintain karna is downward trend mein successful navigation ke liye zaroori hoga.

USDCAD pair ki downward rally dekhne par, ek lower low - lower high price pattern structure ban raha hai. Yeh price ke downward movement ki possibility ko darshata hai, khas taur par jab trend bearish condition mein hai. Misal ke taur par, agar bearish trend ke beech mein upward correction phase hai, to price SBR 1.3794 area ko test kar sakti hai. Jab tak breakout nahi hota, price apni downward rally continue kar sakti hai. Abhi ke price 1.3726 ke range mein hai aur yeh low prices 1.3720 ko paar kar sakti hai, jo ek naya lower low pattern banayega. Agar iska ulta hota hai, to higher high banne ka mauka hai agar yeh successfully 1.3753 ke high prices ko paar kar leti hai. MACD indicator ke side par, bullish divergence signal tab aa sakta hai jab histogram volume falling price volume se match nahi karta, jo 1.3720 ke low prices ko paar karta hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo oversold zone (20 - 10) mein enter kar rahe hain, yeh indicate karte hain ke price decline jald hi selling saturation point tak pohnch sakti hai. Trading recommendations ke liye, bearish trend direction ko follow karte rahiye, aur price ka SBR 1.3794 area ke aas-paas upward correction ka intezar karke SELL entry position place karein. Confirmation ke liye Stochastic indicator parameters ka overbought zone (90 - 80) ko cross karna bhi zaroori hai. Indicator histogram ka volume pehle se zyada hona chahiye taake bullish divergence signal ko negative area mein break kiya ja sake. Target placement take profit ke liye low 1.3720 ke aas-paas aur stop loss high prices 1.3855 par rakha jaye.
abhi ke liye sabhi chaar basement indicators ek sell signal de rahe hain. Lekin, mujhe lagta hai ke pehle ek upar ki taraf correction hogi, uske baad yeh pair H1 channel ke lower boundary ki taraf decline karega. H4 chart par, pair ne ek bade girawat ke baad thoda slow down kiya hai aur mujhe lagta hai ke iske baad upar ki taraf correction dekhne ko milegi. Pehle teen basement indicators ne buy signal de diya hai. Is chart ke base par, mujhe umeed hai ke price upar ki taraf correction karegi, MA100 tak aur shayad usse thoda zyada. Maine kuch minute pehle do buy positions khol di hain aur profit levels set kiye hain.
H4 chart par basement indicators mixed signals de rahe hain, jo ke itna valuable nahi hai. Lekin, upar ek target hai aur price ko us taraf move karna hoga jahan mere profit levels set hain. Summary yeh hai ke filhal pair ko present price par buy karna relevant hai, profit targets ke sath. Lekin, jab yeh targets achieve ho jayein, tab selling par switch karna sahi hoga (jaisa ke dotted line ke indication se hai) kyunki downtrend ab bhi intact hai aur expected growth sirf ek upward correction lagti hai. Yeh expected movement chart par clearly outlined hai.
Khud ko sambhal kar rakhna! Jaise price decline karti rahegi (ya shayad abhi bhi), humein closely monitor karna hoga kisi possible reversal ke liye. Agar price upward move karti hai, to hum 1.3560-1.3710 area tak growth dekh sakte hain, jo MA aur middle Bollinger band ke sath align karta hai. Abhi Canadian dollar ko buy karna jaldi hai, kyunki price side accumulation phase mein hai. Halanki hourly high promising lagta hai, humne abhi tak us level ke upar confirmed breakout nahi dekha. False breakout ki bhi possibility hai, jiske baad phir se accumulation phase mein wapas jaane ka chance hai

Fundamental Analysis

Hello, dear forum members. Umeed hai ke aap sab ache aur munafa bakhsh trading moqe ka lutf utha rahe honge. Aaj main Canadian dollar ka tajziya mukammal karne ki koshish kar raha hoon kuch achi misaalon ke saath, to chaliye shuru karte hain. Tuesday ke trading ke dauran Canadian dollar (CAD) mein aam tor par kami dekhi gayi, jo ke apni zyada tar aham currency rivals ke muqable mein thori peeche chali gayi. Lekin ab bhi ye US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein barhne ki salahiyat rakhta hai. Hafte ke aghaz se pehle, US dollar mein girawat dekhi gayi, jis ne USD/CAD pair ko lagataar teesre din bhi nuksan mein rakha.

Is hafte ke economic calendar mein Canada ki taraf se zyada activity nazar nahi aati, jab tak ke Friday ko doosray quarter ka GDP data release nahi hota. US Personal Consumption Expenditure—Price Index (PCE) bhi isi release window mein shamil hai, jo ke investors ke zehan mein rahega kyun ke annualized Q2 GDP ke 1.7% se thori si kami ke saath 1.6% hone ki umeed hai.

4H chart







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Dollar Canadian Price Analysis

Aam tor par girta hua US dollar USD/CAD price action ko mushkil mein dal raha hai. Yeh pair 1.3500 ke neeche chali gayi aur Tuesday ko Canadian dollar (CAD) ke unsure tone ke bawajood chhe mahine ke neeche 1.3450 par pohonch gayi. Yeh pair August ke aghaz mein 1.3950 ke aas paas se lagataar 3.5% tak gir chuki hai aur aakhri 17 trading days mein se sirf char din munafi mein rahi hai.

USD/CAD chart mein, ek janhvi girawat ne bids ko 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche 1.3628 par le aya hai. Sidelined bulls ke liye kuch zyada guftagu ke liye jagah nahi bachi jab tak ke momentum 1.3600 aur 1.3400 ke darmiyani bottleneck zone se early 2024 mein burst nahi karta.

1H chart

USD/CAD: Asraat Jo Kareeshi Joray Ka Asar

Is maqale mein hum USD/CAD ka jora aur is ke price behavior ka jaiza le rahe hain. USD/CAD joray ne apni girawat rok li hai aur aik ahem support level, yani 61.7% Fibonacci retracement par aik noticeable spike banaya hai. Is level tak achanak se girawat hona thoda hairat angaiz tha, kyun ke price ne baghair kisi khaas pullback ke sharply drop kiya. Is tezi se movement hone ka ye matlab hai ke chart par reversal ka imkaan zyada hai. Halanki jora is level par ruka hua hai, lekin ab tak is ne support ko torha nahi hai. Reversal mumkin hai, lekin iss waqt khareedari ka rujhan risky hai. Aam tor par specific target ki taraf trend ke sath trading zyada maqool hoti hai, aur trend ke khilaf trade karna mushkil sabit hota hai. USD/CAD is waqt is level par stable hai, aur agla move abhi tak clear nahi hai. Yeh imkaan hai ke moving average ki taraf ek upward move ho, jiske baad phir se girawat aasakti hai.

Jora ne haal hi mein naye lows ko test kiya hai, support level 1.3504 ko choo kar 1.3482 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. RSI buy zone mein hai lekin uncertain hai, jabke Awesome Oscillator (AO) sell signal de raha hai. Jora guzishta din ke trading range se neeche position mein hai, jo ke growth ka imkaan dekhata hai. Price resistance 1.3589 ko test kar sakti hai. Magar, kisi bhi upward impulse ko selling opportunity ke tor par dekhna chahiye, kyun ke downward trend abhi bhi barqarar hai. Agar price 1.3614 ko test kare, to false breakout continued decline ko confirm kar sakta hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke 1.3629 par ek aur test ho, jiske baad girawat dobara shuru ho sakti hai. Market ka irada lagta hai ke neeche dhakelne ka hai, aur agar 1.3504 ke neeche break hoti hai, to mazeed nuqsan ka imkaan barh sakta hai. Ek choti upward correction ho sakti hai, lekin downtrend ke jari rehne ke imkanaat zyada hain. Agar 1.3464 ke neeche break hoti hai aur is level ke neeche trading ka silsila jari rehta hai, to yeh mazid girawat ke liye strong sell signal hoga.

USDCAD pair ki downward rally dekhne par, ek lower low - lower high price pattern structure ban raha hai. Yeh price ke downward movement ki possibility ko darshata hai, khas taur par jab trend bearish condition mein hai. Misal ke taur par, agar bearish trend ke beech mein upward correction phase hai, to price SBR 1.3794 area ko test kar sakti hai. Jab tak breakout nahi hota, price apni downward rally continue kar sakti hai. Abhi ke price 1.3726 ke range mein hai aur yeh low prices 1.3720 ko paar kar sakti hai, jo ek naya lower low pattern banayega. Agar iska ulta hota hai, to higher high banne ka mauka hai agar yeh successfully 1.3753 ke high prices ko paar kar leti hai. MACD indicator ke side par, bullish divergence signal tab aa sakta hai jab histogram volume falling price volume se match nahi karta, jo 1.3720 ke low prices ko paar karta hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo oversold zone (20 - 10) mein enter kar rahe hain, yeh indicate karte hain ke price decline jald hi selling saturation point tak pohnch sakti hai. Trading recommendations ke liye, bearish trend direction ko follow karte rahiye, aur price ka SBR 1.3794 area ke aas-paas upward correction ka intezar karke SELL entry position place karein. Confirmation ke liye Stochastic indicator parameters ka overbought zone (90 - 80) ko cross karna bhi zaroori hai. Indicator histogram ka volume pehle se zyada hona chahiye taake bullish divergence signal ko negative area mein break kiya ja sake. Target placement take profit ke liye low 1.3720 ke aas-paas aur stop loss high prices 1.3855 par rakha jaye. abhi ke liye sabhi chaar basement indicators ek sell signal de rahe hain. Lekin, mujhe lagta hai ke pehle ek upar ki taraf correction hogi, uske baad yeh pair H1 channel ke lower boundary ki taraf decline karega. H4 chart par, pair ne ek bade girawat ke baad thoda slow down kiya hai aur mujhe lagta hai ke iske baad upar ki taraf correction dekhne ko milegi. Pehle teen basement indicators ne buy signal de diya hai. Is chart ke base par, mujhe umeed hai ke price upar ki taraf correction karegi, MA100 tak aur shayad usse thoda zyada. Maine kuch minute pehle do buy positions khol di hain aur profit levels set kiye hain.
H4 chart par basement indicators mixed signals de rahe hain, jo ke itna valuable nahi hai. Lekin, upar ek target hai aur price ko us taraf move karna hoga jahan mere profit levels set hain. Summary yeh hai ke filhal pair ko present price par buy karna relevant hai, profit targets ke sath. Lekin, jab yeh targets achieve ho jayein, tab selling par switch karna sahi hoga (jaisa ke dotted line ke indication se hai) kyunki downtrend ab bhi intact hai aur expected growth sirf ek upward correction lagti hai. Yeh expected movement chart par clearly outlined hai.
Khud ko sambhal kar rakhna! Jaise price decline karti rahegi (ya shayad abhi bhi), humein closely monitor karna hoga kisi possible reversal ke liye. Agar price upward move karti hai, to hum 1.3560-1.3710 area tak growth dekh sakte hain, jo MA aur middle Bollinger band ke sath align karta hai. Abhi Canadian dollar ko buy karna jaldi hai, kyunki price side accumulation phase mein hai. Halanki hourly high promising lagta hai, humne abhi tak us level ke upar confirmed breakout nahi dekha. False breakout ki bhi possibility hai, jiske baad phir se acc

saktilar agar pair ko 1.3730-1.3750 region ke aas paas support milta hai. Lekin, yeh bohot zaroori hai ke upcoming economic data aur central bank communications ko closely monitor kiya jaye, kyun ke kisi bhi surprise ke natije mein market mein ziataa volatility aa sakti hai. USD/CAD pair ki recent decline ek nuanced economic landscape ko reflect karti hai, jo BoC ke cautious outlook aur Canadian consumer spending aur labor market conditions ke hawale se concerns se mutasir hai. Jab tak US dollar mazboot hai, traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye, kyun ke economic landscape lagataar evolve hota rahega.H1 timeframe ke current chart ka ghor se jaiza lene ke baad, hum yeh note kar sakte hain ke bearish trading ke liye market ki situation favorable Hi. Ek acha profit hasil karne ke liye deal open karne ke liye sabse munasib position chunnay ke liye kuch zaroori prerequisites ko pura karna bohot aham hai. Sabse pehle, yeh zaroori hai ke senior H4 timeframe par current trend ko durust tareeke se identify kiya jaye taake market sentiment ko predict karne mein koi ghalti na ho, jo ke financial losses ka sabab ban sakti hai. Chaliye, ab hum apne instrument ka 4-hour timeframe ka chart dekhte hain aur pehli condition check karte hain: H1 aur H4 timeframes par trend movements zaroor milti honi chahiye. Aaj, market humein ek behtareen mauqa de raha hai ek short deal karne ka. Aage ki analysis mein hum teen working indicators ke signals par focus karenge: HamaSystem, RSI Trend, aur Magnetic_Levels_Color. Hum is waqt ka intezar karenge jab Hama aur RSI indicators red ho jayen, jo ke yeh main confirmation hoga ke sellers is waqt market mein dominate kar rahe hain. Jaise hi yeh hota hai, hum market mein entry karte hain aur ek sell trade open karte hain. Position se exit ka point hum magnetic level indicator ke mutabiq chunnenge. Aaj ke din ke liye sabse ziyata mumkin levels jo signal ko process karne ke liye hain wo yeh hain: 1.36591. Hum chart par ehitiyatan dekhte rahenge ke price selected magnetic level ke qareeb kis tarah behave kar raha hai aur phir yeh faisla karenge ke position ko market mein next magnetic level tak rehne dena hai ya phir jo profit achieve ho gaya hai usse fix kar lena hai. Agar potential earnings ko mazeed barhane ka irada ho, toh ek trailing stop ko connect kar sakte hain

Yeh is baat ka imkaan kam kar deta hai ke prices 1.3796 se neechay girain gi, jo ke US dollar ke mazid mazboot hone aur Canadian dollar ke kamzor hone ko zahir karta hai, jo ke oil brands ke girti hui qeematon se mazeed badh raha hai. Yeh factors upward movement ko realistic banatay hain. Dosri taraf, guzishta haftay ek expanding triangle pattern zahir hoti hai, jo buyers ki kamzori ko dikhata hai, aur Thursday ko prices ka girna mazeed girawat ka imkaan barhata hai jo ke 1.3632 tak ja sakti hai aur consolidation range ko extend kar sakti hai. Mera andaza hai ke aglay haftay sideways movement hogi, kyunki koi strong impulses nahi hain jo ke significant upward ya downward momentum ko drive karen, given ke kamzor news background expected hai. Currency pair abhi bhi Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke upar trade kar raha hai. Support level 1.3834 ko test karne ke baad rebound hua, aur price dobara barh gayi. Candle model suggest karti hai ke bulls ne aakhri candle close hone par control hasil kar liya, jo ke growth potential ko reinforce karta hai. Natijan, currency pair apne upward trend ko jari rakhne ke liye poised hai, aur growth target 1.3887 hai. Hum is weekly maximum ko break karenge, aur 39-figure range ko aim karte huye, mumkin hai ke extended time frames mein 40-43 figures tak pahunch jayen. Agar is pair ko sell karne ka socha jaye, to ek greedy stop loss level set na karen, aur ise kam az kam 1.3996 par rakhen. Upward movement us surat mein likely hai agar bull wahan stop ko trigger karta hai. Har surat mein, bearish side ki taraf reversal expect nahi karunga. Bull abhi tak round resistance level 1.3901 tak nahi pahuncha, jo bear ko poora moqa deta hai ke woh full-fledged turn bearish kare. Halankeh ek false breakout ya 1.3901 level ka minor breach hone se pehle downward turn lena mumkin nahi lagta. Hafte ke shuruati market session mein, price increase continue hone ke liye kaafi open lagti hai aur candlestick shayad weekly low 1.3792 ko chhodne ki koshish kare. Agar price Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko red ke neeche break nahi kar pati, to

Mein is waqt USD/CAD currency pair ki pricing movements ke current analysis mein delving kar raha hoon. Technical analysis par focus karke ek structured approach milti hai, jo potential levels identify karne mein madad karti hai jahan price action ja sakti hai ya pause kar sakti hai. USD/CAD pair ke liye, maine ek weekly target broader scale par establish kiya hai, lekin deep downside mind mein rakhi hai. Short-term outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai. Hum ne recently ek significant level ko touch kiya, 61.7% Fibonacci retracement ko test kiya, aur iski importance confirm hui hai. Price is waqt iss level ke qareeb hover kar rahi hai. Agle steps clear nahi hain; pullback aur correction jald shuru ho sakti hai, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha pair ki decline ke dauran. Yeh bhi possibility hai ke USD/CAD aur neeche gir sakta hai.
Summary mein, kayi sawalat baqi hain, aur ek closer target decision-making ko simplify kar sakta hai. Growth potential tab ho sakta hai agar buyers significant momentum ke sath 1.34719 ko break karne mein kamyaab ho jayein. Tab tak, mein sellers ke sath aligned hoon. Mera aim USD/CAD currency pair ki movements se capitalize karna hai. Jab hum four-hour chart observe karte hain, toh yeh baat wazeh hoti hai ke 1.35979 level sell positions initiate karne ke liye ek strategic point hai. Mera anticipate hai ke price previous low 1.34459 tak drop karegi, jahan profits ho sakte hain. Lekin agar market dynamics shift hon aur reversal signal emerge ho, toh trade loss par band karna par sakta hai. Agar 1.35979 level ko cross kar liya jaye, toh yeh ek naye support level ke taur par serve kar sakta hai, jise buy positions consider karne ke liye viable point samjha ja sakta hai. Analysis USDCAD pair ko M30 time frame use karke focus karta hai. Meri strategy mein Bollinger indicator aur vertical tick volume histogram shamil hai. Iss waqt USDCAD 1.34652 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, jahan selling ki taraf inclination zyada hai. Sell positions enter karne ke liye extreme limit takriban 1.34719 hai, jabke Bollinger indicator ki lower boundary 1.34591 ek appropriate profit target serve karti hai. Yeh naturally hai ke lower boundary thodi si shift ho sakti hai downward movement ke sath, lekin mujhe yeh change minimal hone ki tawaqqu hai.

Yeh suggest karta hai ke pair week ke start par selling momentum continue karegi. Iss waqt humare paas price movement ke do possibilities hain; ya toh price current level se support receive karegi aur weekly pivot level tak rise karegi, jo ke price ke liye strong resistance hoga, khaaskar upper channel lines ke maujoodgi mein, aur is tarah se price neeche girne lagegi. Doosri possibility yeh hai ke price channel ko neeche ki taraf break karne ki koshish continue kare jab tak ke price successful ho jaye aur girti rahe. In possibilities ko madde nazar rakhte hue, humare paas trading ke liye teen levels hain. Pehla level current level hai, jo ek buying level hai, jahan buy kar sakte hain aur stop loss level kal ke lowest trading price ke neeche set kar sakte hain aur target level weekly pivot level 1.3562 ke neeche set kar sakte hain. Dusra level weekly support level 1.3441 ke neeche hai jahan price successful hui hai price channels ko neeche break karne mein. Teesra level weekly pivot level ke neeche hai aur yeh sell level hai jahan aap selling mein enter kar sakte hain agar price weekly pivot level tak rise kare aur phir neeche rebound ho.