EUR/JPY ka H1 chart dekhte hue, humein ek wazeh downtrend nazar aa raha hai jo ke observe kiye gaye doran bana raha. Is trend ko hum lower highs aur lower lows ke silsile se samajh sakte hain. Bollinger Bands price volatility ko achi tarah capture karte hain; jab market mein tezi se movements hoti hain toh yeh bands expand ho jaate hain aur jab market consolidation ki taraf jaata hai toh yeh bands contract ho jaate hain. Hal hi mein, price ne 158.72 ke ird gird stabilize karne ki koshish ki hai, lekin yeh ab bhi key resistance levels se neeche hai, jo dikhata hai ke bearish momentum ab bhi khatam nahi hua.
Bollinger Bands ke narrow hone se yeh pata chalta hai ke recent candles mein volatility kam hui hai, jo kisi significant breakout ka phela bhi ho sakta hai. Agar price middle band ke upar sustain karti hai, toh yeh potential trend reversal ya consolidation phase ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai, jo agle directional move ke liye tayyar kar sakta hai. Lekin agar bullish momentum ko barqarar nahi rakha gaya, toh phir downside pressure dauran aata rahe ga, jo agle support levels ki taraf le ja sakta hai.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) ki current position 74.53 aur 76.14 hai, jo ke overbought zone ke kareeb hai, lekin abhi tak exhaustion confirm nahi hui. Yeh batata hai ke short-term mein thoda aur bullish movement ke liye jagah hai pehle kisi correction se pehle. Stochastic indicator ke pehle cycles dekhne se pata chalta hai ke yeh aksar overbought aur oversold levels ke darmiyan oscillate karta hai, jo strong price swings ko reflect karta hai. Traders ko overbought region mein crossover ka intezar karna chahiye, jo ke reversal signal keh sakta hai. Agar indicator neeche ki taraf crossover karta hai jab price resistance ke kareeb hoti hai, toh yeh bullish push ke kamzor hone ka indication ho sakta hai aur broader downtrend ki taraf lautne ka bhi. Wahi agar stochastic strong rahta hai aur price action current resistance zone ko upar ki taraf break kar jaata hai, toh yeh further upside movement ko confirm kar sakta hai.
Is broader perspective mein, market structure yeh dikhata hai ke sellers ab bhi control mein hain jab tak price lower highs form kar rahi hai. Downtrend tab tak valid hai jab tak key resistance levels ke upar decisive breakout nahi hota. 158.72 ka level ek crucial short-term pivot point nazar aa raha hai; agar is level se rejection hota hai, toh bearish pressure tez ho sakta hai. Agar selling momentum barhta hai, toh price lower support zones ki taraf target kar sakti hai jo ke 157.50 ya phir 156.80 tak ho sakta hai. Is ke mukablay, agar price Bollinger Bands ki middle line ke upar sustain karti hai, toh yeh 160.00 ki taraf ek koshish ko janam de sakti hai, jahan stronger resistance maujood hai. Market participants ko in levels ke aas paas price action ko monitor karna chahiye, kyunki kisi bhi momentum ka shift trading opportunities ka mauka de sakta hai.
Iss ke ilawa, kuch external factors bhi hain jo EUR/JPY ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain, jaise ke economic data, central bank policies aur overall risk sentiment. Japanese yen aksar risk-off sentiment ke doran strong hota hai, jabki euro ek zyada stable economic outlook se fayda uthata hai. Agar aane wale fundamental data yen ko support karta hai, toh downtrend barqarar reh sakta hai. Lekin agar eurozone ki economic conditions behtar hoti hain, toh reversal gain traction kar sakta hai. Is liye, traders ko technical analysis ke sath sath fundamental insights ko bhi madde nazar rakhna chahiye takay ek comprehensive trading approach bana saken.
Yeh sare analysis traders ko market ki samajh dene ke liye madadgar sabit hote hain, jisse wo behtar trading decisions le sakte hain. Ek balanced approach jo technical aur fundamental dono aspects ko samajhti hai, wo market mein successful hone ki key hai.
تبصرہ
Расширенный режим Обычный режим