USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ki qeemat pehle upar gayi lekin phir neeche ki taraf chali gayi, jisse ek uncertainty candle bani jo thodi bearish thi. Yeh candle aakhir mein support level, jo ke 154.36 hai, ke neeche hi rahi. Iss support level ke aas paas do scenarios ho sakte hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke agar qeemat 154.36 support level ke neeche reh jati hai, toh ho sakta hai ke downward movement ka silsila jaari rahe. Iss ka matlab hoga ke bearish pressure itna zyada hai ke qeemat is important level ke neeche hi rahi. Aise mein traders aur zyada selling pressure ke signs dekhenge, jo qeemat ko aur neeche le jaa sakti hai. Phir yeh lower support levels test karne tak baat pahunch sakti hai, jo ke further technical analysis se identify kiye ja sakte hain.

Doosra scenario yeh hai ke agar qeemat 154.36 support level ke upar chali jati hai aur wahan par stable rehti hai, toh upward movement ka silsila jaari rehne ki umeed hai. Iska matlab hoga ke bearish pressure temporary tha aur buyers wapas market mein aa gaye hain. Agar aisa hota hai, toh qeemat upar ki taraf barhti rahegi jab tak ke agla resistance level, jo ke 154.53 aur 155.00 ke darmiyan hai, tak nahi pahunchtai. Yeh range is liye aham hai kyun ke yeh agla barrier hai jo price ko sustain upward trend ke liye overcome karna hoga.

Agar qeemat 154.36 resistance level ke upar stable reh jati hai, toh mein intezar karunga ke qeemat apna northward movement jaari rakhe. Target 154.53 se 155.00 ka resistance range hoga. Yeh area important hai kyunki agar qeemat isse break kar jati hai, toh yeh stronger bullish trend ka signal ho sakta hai. Traders increased buying pressure ke signs dekhenge aur shayad long positions ke liye entry points dhoondhenge.

Iss range mein price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga. Agar 154.53-155.00 ke aas paas hesitation ya reversal ke signs milte hain, toh iska matlab yeh hoga ke resistance mazboot hai aur qeemat phir se neeche ki taraf ja sakti hai. Aise mein traders apni positions reconsider karenge aur shayad ek possible retracement ke liye prepare honge

T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S
U S D / J P Y
Good Morning. Main aaj aik essay likhunga jo ke USD/JPY market mein abhi ke doran price ke behavior par hai. USD/JPY abhi 147.57 par trade kar raha hai. USD index 102.37 ke support level ko test kar raha hai. Is liye, yeh asaan hai ke is waqt ke time frame mein USD/JPY ko bullish analyze kiya jaye. Is waqt ke time frame mein USD/JPY bullish nazar aa raha hai. Kal ke trading mein USD/JPY market ki soorat e haal mein lag raha tha ke sellers ka ghalba tha, jinhon ne USD/JPY ke price ko neeche move karne par majboor kiya. Is time frame chart par, USD/JPY ka price overbought nazar nahi aa raha, kyun ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ne ab tak 70 ko touch nahi kiya hai. Isi ke saath, technically USD/JPY ka price overbought nahi lagta kyun ke moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator ne ab tak 0.0065 ko touch nahi kiya hai. Jab ke price 50 EMA line se upar hai is time frame chart par, ab iska trend bullish hai, aur is liye main sochta hoon ke yeh resistance level ko test karega jo maine diagram mein dikhaya hai.



USD/JPY bulls is waqt $161.56 ke barrier par attack kar rahe hain. Yeh price pehle resistance level ko cross kar sakta hai aur umeed ke mutabiq doosre resistance level 167.65 tak ja sakta hai. Is chart mein, hum dekh sakte hain ke supply/resistance area, jo ke price range 172.54 mein hai, aik strong area hai jo ke teesra resistance level hai. Doosri taraf, USD/JPY ke liye initial support level 137.33 hai. Yeh price pehle support level ko cross kar sakta hai aur umeed ke mutabiq doosre support level 102.37 tak ja sakta hai. Is chart mein hum dekh sakte hain ke demand/support area, jo ke price range 76.15 mein hai, aik strong area hai jo ke teesra support level hai. Dekhte hain agle kuch ghanton mein kya hota hai. Humein is risky pair par trading karte waqt ehtiyaat karni hogi.

Chart mein use hone wale indicators: MACD indicator: RSI indicator period 14: 50-day exponential moving average color Orange: 20-day exponential moving average color Magenta:

Hum is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Halaankeh daily movement kam hai, lekin bullish trend abhi bhi qayam hai, jis se buying ko behtar strategy samjha ja raha hai. Hum dekhte hain ke price peechlay din ke high tak pohnch chuki hai, lekin phir se bearish ho gayi hai. Yeh pattern yeh batata hai ke is waqt sellers aur buyers dono apni apni taqat mein hain. Magar teen din pehle buyers ne apni hukoomat qaim ki thi, lekin sellers abhi bhi in se takra rahe hain. Aik impulse move, jo ke zyada mumkin hai ke upar ki taraf hoga, nazar aa raha hai. Is point par, pair ke barhne ke chances zyada hain bajaye neeche janay ke. Halaankeh bullish move mumkin hai, market kisi bhi direction mein shift ho sakta hai, yeh bearish bhi ho sakta hai ya phir 151.945 ke upar ja sakta hai. Direction ka daromadar aanay wali khabaron par aur pehli ahem daily candle ke form hone par hai jo corrective exit ke baad banti hai.
Ek deep, bullish correction ziada tar sharp, bearish movement ke baad hoti hai, jo ke ek aggressive trend se mark hoti hai. Daily hourly chart par, USD/JPY pair weekly price action ke dauran ek sideways zone bana raha hai. Abhi resistance 148.01 par hai, jo aik strong level hai jise pair break karne mein hichkichata hua lagta hai, aur yeh is baat ki dalalat karta hai ke aik deeper bullish correction ki likelihood hai. Maujooda halaat ko dekhte hue, yeh expect karna reasonable hai ke 141.73 support zone ka retest hoga, jo ke hal hi mein ek significant volatility ke sath reach hua tha. Yeh zone lower Bollinger Band ke sath align hota hai, jo ke bottom price range ko mark karta hai. Jab yeh area pohncha jaye, to ek double-bottom pattern ubhar sakta hai, jo ke aik technical rebound aur bullish direction ki taraf turn ko trigger kar sakta hai. Japan ke interest rate ka is asset ki pricing par gehra asar raha hai, aur is ka future influence abhi tak uncertain hai.

US Dollar ne Yen ke muqable mein naye 38-saal ke highs ko continue kia hai, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki persistently accommodative monetary policy se driven hai. Halaankeh Japanese officials ke repeated verbal warnings ke bawajood ke wo foreign exchange markets mein interventions kar sakte hain, Yen abhi bhi pressure mein hai. Japan ke near-zero interest rates aur doosri badi currencies ke sath significant interest rate differential, Yen ke struggles ko aur zyada kar raha hai.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki June 11-12 meeting ke doran, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ne apne data-driven approach to monetary policy ko underlined kiya. Unhoon ne interest rate cuts ka commitment karne se ijtenaab kia, aur mazeed observation ki zaroorat par zor dia. Kuch Fed members ne rates ko kam karne mein ehtiyat baratne ka izhar kia, jabke doosron ne yeh indicate kiya ke agar inflation pressures dobara ubharte hain to mazeed hikes zaroori ho sakti hain

USD/JPY Profit Potential

Hamari current focus USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ko evaluate karne par hai. Bears ne pehle target, 138th Fibonacci level ko 148.10 par, aur phir dusre target, 161st Fibonacci level ko 145.73 par, capture kar liya hai. Price ko is level par girne ki ummeed hai jab market dubara kholenge. Iske baad, correction honi chahiye, kam se kam broken 138th Fibonacci level 148.10 par. Bears ki behavior ko observe karna zaroori hai - kya ve bulls ko correction ke liye chance denge ya price ko new lows par push karenge.

15-minute chart ko analyze karte hue, price ne double bottom 146.49 par bana liya hai, jo minimum time frame ko indicate kar raha hai, upward adjustment ke liye. Chart par ek significant green zone form hogayi hai, jo ignore nahi ki ja sakti. Price ko upward adjust hone ki ummeed hai, resistance levels - MA red line 150.89 aur mid-trend black line 153.29 par target karne se pehle, mid-trend level ko break karke double top level 154 par pahunchne se pehle.

Prices ne new low 146.417 par set kiya hai, jahan se upward rebound ne upward movement ka start kiya hai. Lekin minimum ko dubara update kiya ja sakta hai, additional signals ke mutabiq. Daily chart se pata chalta hai ki upward movement ke liye optimal immediate target 38.2% Fib level 155.99 par hai, jo buying target ho sakta hai. Main upward movement ko continue karne ki ummeed karta hoon, 155.99 level ko break karne ke liye.

Kal ke US news ne USD/JPY pair ki further bearish movement ko aid kiya, jo unexpected nahi tha. Wage growth, employment, aur unemployment data mein decline ne European currency ko strengthen kiya, Japanese Yen ko bhi prolonged bearish journey par chhoda, jo unprecedented long uptrend ko partially compensate karne ke liye hai

USD/JPY ne ek record high par pohonch kar tezi se increase dikhaya hai, jo ke profit-taking ka potential moqa bhi ho sakta hai. Aane wale US session se pehle ek decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Moving averages ke upar aur bullish channel se breakout ne bearish pressure ka ishara diya hai. Hourly chart analysis aur 15-minute chart ke mutabiq, ek decline ki possibility hai kyunki moving average abhi ke price se upar hai, jo ke USD/JPY pair ke bullish trend ke continuation ko suggest karta hai, aur yeh higher zone tak ja sakta hai. Is haftay ke trend pattern ne narrow range mein ek uptrend dikhaya hai. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices ke uptrend ko maintain karne ki umeed hai.

Morning candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo ke market trend mein rise ka ishara hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone se upar jaane mein kamiyab hote hain... Is waqt, USD/JPY apni trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ko continue karne ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance level ko todna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke liye continued movement ka potential offer karega. Pehla target supply zone 160.47 par hoga, jahan historically sellers ne prices ko niche dhakela hai.

Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support level ko todna hoga, jahan se price aksar wapas bounce hota hai. Bear strength us waqt confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke niche consolidate karega, jo ke price weakness ka ishara hoga.

Yeh khas taur par USD/JPY market mein pichle budh ko dekha gaya tha jab price ne trading session ke dauran significant downward movement experience kiya. Shorter time frame mein, price ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur yeh abhi 50-period Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai, jo ek slight upward correction ko dikhata hai. Yeh possible hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 area ke ird-gird consolidate kare, kyunki yeh conditions aksar Tuesday ko dekhi jaati hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai.

H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko observe karte hue, yeh clear hai ke abhi yeh downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend thoda bearish hai, ke bawajood ke USD/JPY pair ne July 2024 ke shuruati trading sessions ke baad upward move kiya. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain.

D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY pair ke recent trading activity economic indicators, central bank policies, aur geopolitical factors ka ek complex interplay reflect kar rahi hai. D1 moving average line par 168.470 support level ka current test pair ke liye ek critical juncture hai. Traders ko chahiye ke yeh level ke ird-gird pair ka behavior closely monitor karein, kyunki yeh future price movements ke bare mein significant insights provide kar sakta hai. Ek cautious aur informed approach adopt karna, jisme technical aur fundamental analysis dono ko include kiya jaye, essential hoga USD/JPY pair ke market dynamics ko navigate karne ke liye aane wale dino mein.

USDJPY 147.23 par open hua tha. Agar aap H1 timeframe par dekhein, toh candle abhi tak resistance area mein phansi hui hai. Agar yeh area successfully break kar liya gaya, toh USDJPY aur upar jaa sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh resistance area cross karne mein nakam raha, toh USDJPY dobara gir sakta hai. Guzishta Juma ko, USDJPY mein izafa hua tha, khas tor par jab candle RBS zone mein phansi hui thi. Us waqt, uska movement kaafi zyada tha, aur yeh takreeban 150 pips tak upar gaya tha.
Meri analysis ke mutabiq, ab bhi chance hai ke USDJPY upar jaa sakta hai, kyunki candle middle Bollinger Band line cross kar chuka hai. Magar ehtiyat se kaam lena chahiye, kyunki candle abhi tak MA50 line cross nahi kar saka. Is level ke aas paas rebound ho sakta hai, jo aakhir kar ke decline ka sabab ban sakta hai. Aakhri analysis mein, agar zyada market participants ko yeh yaqeen dila diya gaya ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, toh yeh trading instrument mein price distribution ka kaam shuru ho sakta hai. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke bohot se market participants yeh samjhein ke price yahan se gir sakta hai

USD/JPY market ne khwahishat ko haqeeqat samajh liya hai. Haan, FOMC ka saathi bayan aur Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ka press conference mein speech mein bohot se hints they ke September mein Fed ki monetary policy ko ease kiya ja sakta hai. Magar sab decisions data-dependent honge. Is background ke bawajood, teen rate cuts ke derivative acts mein 2024 ke end tak confidence zyada lagta hai. Agar aisa hai, toh U.S. dollar ke comeback ka acha chance hai. Powell ne indicate kiya ke FOMC ne July meeting ke dauran rates ko kam karne par ghoor kiya, magar aksariyat officials ne yeh behtar samjha ke sab kuch waise hi rehne diya jaye. U.S. economy inflation aur unemployment ke lehaz se achi position mein hai, aur disinflationary processes ka aghe barhna aur labor market ka further cooling monetary policy easing ke liye rasta khol sakta hai. Yeh masla dobara September ke Fed meeting mein uthane par ghoor kiya ja sakta hai

USD/JPY Price Move:

Hamari discussion mein, hum USD/JPY currency pair ki price changes ko analyse karenge. Pair ne Bank of Japan ki intervention ke wajah se 161.31 ko cross kiya, jisne market mein dollars ko flood kar diya, 160 ki tarah. Lekin market ne isko anticipate kar liya tha, lekin 161 par growth hone ki ummeed nahi thi, kyunki koi predictions iske liye nahi thi. Pair ne later yen ki appreciation ke baad decline kiya, aur carry trades unwind hone lage. Lekin 148 se rise unclear hai, shayad Bank of Japan ke deputy chairman ke statements se driven hai. Lekin yeh clear hai ki rate increase unnecessary tha, kyunki USD/JPY ne nearly 2000 points briefly surge kiya. Kisi ko benefit nahi hoga agar currency 10-15% drop kar jaye weeks mein.

Technically, agar hum 147.91 par sell karte hain, to growth falling channel ke above ho sakta hai, jo 152-154 ki taraf rise kar sakta hai, jo promising lagta hai pehle ki likely decline. Bank of Japan yen ko significantly drop hone nahi denge, kyunki yeh advantageous nahi hoga. Woh stable trading conditions prefer karenge.

Technical outlook pair ke liye continued upward trend suggest karta hai, TMA channel indicator ke mutabiq. Zigzag aur auxiliary MACD aur RSI indicators bhi bullish movement ko point karte hain, kyunki woh oversold zone mein hain, jo long buy trades ke liye potential ko signal karta hai. Bulls strength aur activity dikha rahe hain, main open position secure karunga jab Fib target 61.8% ho, price level 154.214 par. Lekin gains ko safeguard karne ke liye, main order ko breakeven shift karunga jab yeh positive ho jaye.

Currently, 4-hour chart par bulls apni position maintain kar rahe hain, lekin unki activity thodi kam ho gayi hai. Yeh imply nahi karta ki bullish correction ke attempts nahi honge, kyunki woh likely potential ko exhaust nahi kiya hai. EMA(13/6) aur MACD se indicators nearly corrective signals suggest karte hain. Thus, main anticipate karta hoon ki northern move consolidation ke baad hoga

Aaj mein W1 chart ke senior period par ghore karne ka mashwara deta hoon - USDJPY currency pair. Yahan aap dekh sakte hain ke is pair ki price ka mustaqil girawat jaari hai. Mein soch sakta hoon un bechne walon ka haal jo apne paas kaafi paisa nahi rakh sakay taake is pair ki girawat ko bardasht kar saken, kyun ke intezar ka zamana khatam ho gaya hai aur girawat ka silsila shuru ho gaya hai, price hamesha ke liye upar nahi ja sakti thi. MACD indicator ne girawat ka ishara diya tha, jis par ek bara bearish divergence bana, jo itne bara time interval par kafi kam hota hai, yeh ek saal mein sirf ek martaba hota hai, ya phir is se bhi kam. Maximum ke akhri update par bhi, second istamal honay wala indicator CCI par ek bearish divergence bana. Yeh sab us waqt tasdeek hui jab price ne reversal figure se niche nikala - ek ascending wedge. Iske baad price gir gayi, apne raste par sab obstacles ko torhti hui, aur un par sirf thode waqt ke liye rukki. Pehle yahan ka main support level 152.16 tha, halan ke upar rebound hua, magar phir bhi sellers ke pressure se gir gaya. Uske baad, jaisa ke expect kiya gaya tha, hum ascending support line tak pohnche, lekin yeh koi khas rebound nahi de sakti thi, yeh niche dhakel di gayi largely due to US mein Friday ke bure khabar ki wajah se, US dollar market mein kamzor ho gaya. Non-agricultural employment rate waqi se kafi bura tha. US mein unemployment rate ek dam se 0.2 points barh gaya. Nai hafta shuru hui aur price ne aage niche ka rukh liya bina kisi upward correction ka sochay. Hum horizontal support level 140.81 ke kareeb pohnch gaye. Thoda kam tha, well, shayad ab bhi is level ka pass aur specific test ho sakta hai. Iske qareeb, mere khayal se hum choti period par upwards entry consider kar sakte hain taake ek possible upward correction ka part le sakein. Aaj ki noteworthy news: 16-45 Moscow time: US Services Business Activity Index, US Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from S&P Global. 17-00: US Non-Manufacturing Employment Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Price Index (ISM)

Jaisay hum naye trading week mein dakhil hotay hain, kuch scenarios ko mad e nazar rakhnay ki zaroorat hai. Agar neechey ki taraf ka rujhan jari rehta hai, to hum dekh saktay hain ke price lower Bollinger Band ke qareeb ja sakti hai, jo ke iss waqt 142.29 par hai. Bollinger Bands aise tools hain jo support aur resistance levels ko pehchanay mein madad karte hain. Jab price lower band ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ki nishani hoti hai ke asset oversold ho chuki hai, jo ke buying opportunity ya kam az kam downward movement mein rukawat ka ishara ho sakti hai.
Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price Monday tak rebound kar jaye. Lower moving average ke neechey girawat kaafi kamzor rahi hai, jo ke yeh batata hai ke shayad zyada selling pressure na ho jo iss neechey walay movement ko barqarar rakh sake. Agar price lower MA ke oopar waapis chali jati hai, to yeh recovery ka signal ho sakta hai. Is scenario mein, hum dekh saktay hain ke price upper moving average aur middle Bollinger Band ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo ke iss waqt 149.98 par hai.

Woh key levels jo dekhna zaroori hain, wo hain lower moving average 147.75, middle Bollinger Band 149.98, aur upper Bollinger Band 157.67. Agar price recover kar ke lower MA ke oopar chali jati hai, to yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke kya yeh middle Bollinger Band ko bhi cross kar sakti hai. Agar yeh levels cross kar liye jayein, to yeh is baat ka signal hoga ke ek substantial upward movement shuru ho sakta hai.

Agar price middle Bollinger Band ko break kar ke upper Bollinger Band ke qareeb chali jati hai, jo ke 157.67 par hai, to yeh is baat ki tasdeeq karega ke bullish momentum mazid strong ho raha hai. Upper Bollinger Band aksar uptrend mein target ke tor par kaam karta hai, aur uski taraf move karna yeh zahir karega ke bullish trend likely continue karega.

Dosri taraf, agar price recover karne mein nakam rehti hai aur neechey girti rehti hai, to humein ek gehri girawat ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Aise mein, lower Bollinger Band 142.29 par critical support level ban jaye ga. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, to yeh further downside potential ki nishani ho sakti hai, aur hum dekh saktay hain ke price naye lows ko test karegi. Yeh zaroori hai ke in key levels ke qareeb price action ko qareebi tor par monitor kiya jaye taake trading decisions behtar tor par kiye sakein

Technical indicators mix signals de rahe hain. RSI aur stochastic indicators dono neechey ki taraf movement dikhate hain, jo ke bearish sentiment ko reflect karte hain. Magar, inka kamzor signal yeh suggest karta hai ke selling pressure shayad kam ho raha hai. Yeh aisi situation paida karta hai jahan price ya to current levels par consolidate kar sakti hai ya phir agar buying interest waapis aata hai to rebound kar sakti hai

USD/JPY pair ne zabardast mazbooti dekhaayi, jiska matlab hai ke U.S. dollar ke muqable mein yen ki qeemat mein kaafi izafa hua. Yeh pair 141.71 ke haal hi mein low se upar uth kar ab takreeban 147.57 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Yeh upward momentum market ke neechey chalne wale dynamics ko reflect karta hai, jahan U.S. dollar ki mazbooti, jo ke Federal Reserve ke mazeed interest rate hikes ke umeedon se support hoti hai, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke ultra-loose monetary policy ke contrast mein hai.
U.S. dollar ko strong economic data se support mil raha hai, jismein mazboot employment figures aur resilient consumer spending shamil hai, jisse Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary tightening ke mazeed umeedon mein izafa hua hai. Iske baraks, BoJ ka commitment low-interest rates barqarar rakhne ka, taake economic recovery ko support kiya ja sake, yen ko neechey dabaaye hue hai. Yeh monetary policy stances ka farq USD/JPY pair ki appreciation ka ek aham driver raha hai.

Lekin, yen ki sharp depreciation ne Japan mein tashweesh paida kar di hai. Weakening yen import ki cost ko barhata hai, khaaskar energy aur raw materials ki, jo ke mulk mein inflationary pressures ko mazeed barhaata hai. In challenges ko address karne ke liye, Japanese authorities ne foreign exchange market mein mudakhlat ka ishara diya hai taake yen ko stabilize kiya ja sake aur zyada volatility ko roka ja sake. Aisi interventions mein direct market actions shamil ho sakti hain, jaise U.S. dollars bechna aur yen khareedna, ya indirect measures jese verbal interventions aur policy adjustments.

Market participants gehri nazar rakhe hue hain Japanese hukoomat ya BoJ ki taraf se kisi bhi mudakhlat ke sign par. Pichli dafa jab yen mein itni significant depreciation hui thi, to Japanese authorities ne currency ko support karne ke liye fauran action liya tha, jo yen ke liye temporarily relief ka sabab bana. Agar yen aur zyada weak hota hai aur critical thresholds ko cross karta hai, to mudakhlat ke chances barh sakte hain, jo USD/JPY pair mein increased volatility ka sabab ban sakte hain.

Near term mein, traders ehtiyaat se kaam lenge, jahan USD/JPY pair mein further gains ke potential aur intervention ke risk ke darmiyan balance banaye rakhenge. Key levels jo dekhne walay hain, unmein 147.57 mark shamil hai, jo significant resistance level ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai, aur 141.71 level as a potential support level. Monetary policy ya intervention measures se related developments pair ke trajectory par aane wale dinon mein aham asar daal sakti hain

Yeh waqt aane wala hai ke request buyers ki taraf wapas jaaye jab bears apni corrective phase khatam kar chuke honge. Pall mein jaakar, hum bears ke baad ke saare swell ko cancel kar sakte hain aur reversal mein chale jaayein, aaraam se highs ki taraf wapas jaate hue. Pichhli baar is position ke saath ek glass image tha, lekin wo resistant bhi tha. Ab jab bears fail ho gaye hain break karne mein, request asaani se buyers ki taraf chalegi, aur hum pall se upar uthenge. Jab hum upar wapas aayenge, hum progress karenge. Buyers purane tareeqe se aise increase ko guarantee kar sakte hain bina kisi sharp move ke. Unhe ek verified position par immersion ki zarurat nahi hai bone ke abecedarian strength ki wajah se. Halankeh bone kamzor hai, lekin current JPY se strong hai. Bohat se log samajhte hain ke bone ruble ke muqable mein gir gaya hai aur ek kamzor currency hai, lekin yeh sach nahi hai.
Russians ab sab goods aur services ke liye zyada paisa isliye de rahe hain, kyunki ruble bone ke muqable mein upar gaya hai. Humari price bhi barhegi kyunki ruble bone ke muqable mein upar gaya hai. Iske bawajood, hum har surat mein economically superior rahenge. Bone ab bhi weight rakhta hai, isliye main 1.1 long-term target se highs tak kharidari karta rahunga. Nearest pretensions 150-210 points tak adjust ho sakti hain. Agar top situations 147.50 tak aapki attention nahi le rahi, toh aap Fibonacci grid ko map par drag kar sakte hain.

Daily chart par, USD/JPY dikhata hai do key levels jo ongoing decline se rebound ka sabab ban sakte hain. Pehla hai 147.19; zyada important weekly level hai 146.29, jiske neeche koi significant weekly price consolidation nahi hui hai. Agar market is level ki kamzori pe react karti hai, toh bearish trend bekaar se continue ho sakta hai. Main naye trading week ke shuru hone par market ke reaction ko dekhunga taake current market direction ko better samajh saku aur informed trading decisions le saku. Bearish trend shayad continue hoga, aur pichhle hafte ka bullish correction sirf daily price chart ke around ek temporary rebound tha. Friday ko pair ne 150.0 resistance zone se aggressively bounce kiya, jo Thursday ke daily candle ko absorb kar raha tha. Yeh further downward movement ka indication ho sakta hai, jo support 141.73 ko break kar sakta hai, jaisa ke lower moving average bearish continuation ko suggest karta hai

Japanese yen ne U.S. dollar ke muqable mein doosray din bhi taqat hasil ki hai, aur iska primary sabab Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke taraf se potential interest rate hike ki expectations mein izafa hai. Yeh sentiment tab badla jab Japan ne doosray quarter mein positive GDP growth report ki, jo ke aik zyada hawkish monetary policy stance ko support karta hai. Saath hi, yen ko safe-haven flows ka faida mila hai kyun ke geopolitical tensions barh gayi hain, jahan Hamas ne ceasefire proposal ko reject kar diya aur Ukraine ne Russia mein ek bara hamla kiya hai. Dusri taraf, U.S. dollar weak ho gaya hai Federal Reserve officials ke dovish comments ki wajah se, jinhon ne market expectations ko September mein possible interest rate cut ki taraf badha diya hai. Yeh outlook recent economic data se bhi support hota hai, jo ke inflation mein slowdown ko dikhata hai, chahe wo Producer Price Index (PPI) ho ya Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Reserve ke officials, jin mein San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly aur Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee shamil hain, ne bhi extended period ke liye restrictive monetary policies ko maintain karne ke khilaf caution kiya hai.
USD/JPY pair ke technical analysis se ek short-term bearish trend ka pata chalta hai, jahan pair apne nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) se neeche trade kar raha hai aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 50 level ke neeche positioned hai. Support levels pair ke liye seven-month low 141.69 aur rebound support level 140.25 ke qareeb hain. Upper side par, resistance nine-day EMA 147.60 ke qareeb anticipate kiya ja raha hai, jabke further potential resistance levels 50-day EMA 152.78 aur previous pullback resistance turned support 154.50 par hain. Overall, Japanese yen ki appreciation kayi factors ka natija hai, jin mein ek zyada hawkish BoJ outlook, geopolitical concerns ke hawale se safe-haven demand, aur U.S. dollar ka weak hona dovish Fed rhetoric aur inflationary pressure ke ease hone se shamil hain.

USD/JPY trades aur tips ka tajziya Volatility dheere dheere normal ho rahi hai, lekin pair ab bhi movement dikha raha hai. Kal, 146.49 ka price test hua jab indicator zero mark se upar ki taraf move karna shuru hua, jo dollar khareedne ke liye sahi entry point ko confirm kar raha tha. Nateeja ye hua ke USD/JPY lagbhag 100 pips tak barh gaya. Aaj, buyers ne kal ke high ko test karne mein kamiyabi hasil ki. Lekin uske baad pair par pressure wapas aaya, jo ye darshaata hai ke market mein bade sellers mojood hain jo aane wale hafton mein dollar ke niche jaane par wager kar rahe hain. Japan mein money supply data ka market par koi khaas asar nahi pada Strategy ke liye, mein ziada tawajju scenario No. 1 aur 2 ko implement karne par doon ga Buy signals
**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, mein USD/JPY khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price entry point par pohonch jaye jo ke chart par green line se 147.20 ke aas paas plot ki gayi hai, aur maqsad 148.27 tak pahunchna hai jo ke chart par thicker green line se plot ki gayi hai. 148.27 par, mein long positions exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein short ones open karoon ga, aur 30-35 pips ka movement opposite direction mein expect karoon ga. Aaj pair ke upar rise hone ki umeed hai jo ek upward correction ka hissa hai. Lekin jitna upar pair jaye ga, dollar bechna utna hi attractive hoga. Zaroori hai ke khareedne se pehle ensure karein ke indicator zero mark se upar hai aur wahan se rise ho raha hai
**Scenario No. 2:** Mein aaj USD/JPY khareedne ka plan kar raha hoon agar do martaba consecutive tests 146.58 par hoti hai jab indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reverse upturn laega. Growth 147.20 aur 148.27 ke opposite levels tak expect ki ja sakti hai
Sell signals
**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj mein USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon sirf us waqt jab 146.58 ka test ho jaye jo ke chart par red line se plot ki gayi hai, jo pair mein tezi se decline laega. Sellers ka key target 145.63 ho ga, jahan mein short positions exit karoon ga aur foran opposite direction mein long positions open karoon ga, aur 20-25 pips ka movement opposite direction mein expect karoon ga. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khaaskar agar din ke pehle hisse mein unsuccessful correction ho aur daily high ka test na ho sake. Zaroori hai ke bechne se pehle ensure karein ke indicator zero mark se niche hai aur wahan se decline shuru ho raha hai
**Scenario No. 2:** Mein aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar do martaba consecutive price tests 147.20 par hoti hain jab indicator overbought area mein ho. Ye pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reverse downturn laega. Decline 146.58 ke opposite level tak expect kiya ja sakta hai

USD/JPY ke trades ka analysis aur tips:
148.50 par price test us waqt hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se significantly neeche gir gaya tha, jisse pair ke downward potential par week ke aakhir mein limitation aayi. Is wajah se maine sale nahi kiya aur koi transactions nahi hui. Aaj yen ne dollar ke muqable mein izafa kiya hai, aur G10 currencies mein sab se zyada gains hasil kiye hain. Yeh izafa us waqt hua jab top central bank officials ke comments ka intezar hai, jo is haftay bolne wale hain. Yen ka izafa dollar ki broad weakness se linked hai, aur major market participants ke positions ki revision se pehle hua hai, khas tor par Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke speech aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole mein speech ke hawale se. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein zyada focus Scenario No. 1 par rakhunga.

Buy signals:

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, mein USD/JPY ko tab buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price entry point 145.93 par pohnche, jo ke chart par green line se plot ki gayi hai, aur target 146.91 ka hoga, jo ke chart par thicker green line se plot ki gayi hai. 146.91 par, mein long positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short ones open karunga, aur expect karunga ke wahan se price 30-35 pips opposite direction mein move kare. Hum expect kar sakte hain ke pair aaj upward correction ke hisson mein rise karega. Important: Buy karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se rise karna start kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Mein aaj USD/JPY ko tab bhi buy karne ka plan rakhta hoon agar 145.21 ke do consecutive tests ho aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein ek reverse upturn ki taraf le jaayega. Hum growth ko opposite levels 145.93 aur 146.91 tak expect kar sakte hain.

Sell signals:

Scenario No. 1: Aaj mein USD/JPY ko tab sell karne ka plan rakhta hoon jab price 145.21 par test kare, jo ke chart par red line se plot ki gayi hai, jo pair mein ek rapid decline ka sabab banegi. Sellers ke liye key target 144.36 hoga, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur immediately long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, aur expect karunga ke wahan se price 20-25 pips opposite direction mein move kare. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar pehle half of the day mein correction unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high test karne mein failure hota hai. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur wahan se decline karna start kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Mein aaj USD/JPY ko tab bhi sell karne ka plan rakhta hoon agar 145.93 par do consecutive price tests ho aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market mein ek reverse downturn ki taraf le jaayega. Hum decline ko opposite levels 145.21 aur 144.36 tak expect kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY currency pair ka technical analysis yeh darshata hai ke downward trend ka silsila jari rahega, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se wazeh hai. Yeh southward movement Zigzag indicator aur auxiliary technical tools jaise Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) se bhi support hoti hai, jo ke overbought zone mein hain aur short-selling opportunities ka indication deti hain. Filhaal market mein bearish sentiment hai, aur analyst ka plan yeh hai ke open position ko -23.6% Fibonacci support level par close kar diya jaye, jo ke 144.694 ke price par hai. Risk ko kam karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par shift kar denge jab position profitable territory mein enter karegi. Is approach se trader bearish momentum ka faida uthata hai aur potential price reversals se bachav bhi karta hai. US labor market data ke recent release ne USD/JPY price ko niche ki taraf move karne par majboor kiya hai. Yeh development trader Dmitry ke liye achi khabar hai, jo is bearish trend se faida utha rahe hain. Lekin, analyst ko lagta hai ke Japanese yen vertically lambi muddat ke liye strong nahi reh sakti, aur price aakhirkar stabilize ho sakti hai, jo consolidation ya northward move ko lead kar sakta hai. Halanki bearish sentiment hai, analyst US dollar ko puri tarah se nazar andaz karne ki salahiyat nahi dete. American currency apni resilience ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi waqt comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal ke zariye ho ya dusre currency pairs mein strength ke zariye. Analy


st market conditions ko nazar mein rakhenge aur trading strategy ko adjust karenge taake kisi bhi potential opportunity ka faida utha sakein.

Yeh zaroori hai ke foreign exchange market mein trading karte waqt inherent risks ko samjha jaye, aur investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies ko implement karna chahiye, aur investment decisions se pehle professional guidance leni chahiye. Agle Federal Reserve meeting tak ek mahina bacha hai, aur is dauran is currency pair ki price mein significant increase dekha ja sakta hai. Yeh is liye hai ke dollar ki strength driving factors, jaise US economy ki robust performance aur Fed ka hawkish monetary policy stance, fundamentally change nahi hui hain. Recent economic data release ke bawajood, jo kuch log speculate karte hain ke government agencies ne elections se pehle better picture dikhane ke liye manipulate kiya, dollar ki long-term trajectory bullish hi rahegi.