usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Jumma ko USD/JPY currency pair mein significant decline dekha gaya, jahan US dollar 1.6% gir kar New York trading mein 157.51 par close hua. Pehle session mein, yeh 157.30 ka low hit kar gaya tha, jo us din ka sabse lowest level tha. Yeh tezi se girawat market reports ki wajah se aayi ke Japanese authorities ne forex market mein intervention ki, taake USD/JPY pair ke depreciation ko tezi se badhaya ja sake. Yeh intervention ek strategic move thi taake US dollar ki kamzori ko leverage kiya ja sake.

Japanese Authorities ka Intervention

Market speculation yeh indicate karti hai ke Japanese government aur Bank of Japan ne USD/JPY exchange rate ko influence karne ke liye kadam uthaya. Aise interventions aam tor par currency market ko stabilize karne aur specific economic objectives achieve karne ke liye hote hain. Is case mein, intervention ka maksad yen ke US dollar ke against tezi se appreciate hone ko rokna tha. Authorities ne shaayad US dollar ki kamzori ko ek moqa samjha, taake yen ki strength Japan ki export-driven economy ko adversely impact na kar sake.

Forex Market par Asar

Japanese authorities ke intervention ka forex market par turant aur gehra asar pada. Traders aur investors ne khabaron par react karte hue apni positions adjust ki, jo heightened volatility aur USD/JPY pair mein significant movements ka sabab bani. 157.30 par sharp drop aur phir slight recovery se 157.51 par close hona market ki intervention news par response ko reflect karta hai. Aise moves central banks aur governmental actions ke currency pairs par influence ko dikhate hain.

US Dollar Ki Kamzori

US dollar ki broader weakness bhi USD/JPY pair ke decline mein crucial role ada kiya. Mukhtalif factors dollar ki kamzori mein shamil hain, jismein recent economic data jo US economy mein slowdown suggest karti hain aur Federal Reserve ke future interest rate cuts ke bare mein speculation. Iske ilawa, geopolitical uncertainties aur market sentiment jo risk-off assets ko favor karte hain, dollar ke depreciation ka sabab bane. Yeh ek advantageous backdrop provide kiya Japanese authorities ko effectively intervene karne ke liye.

Market Reactions aur Future Outlook

Market participants ab closely dekh rahe hain ke aage Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan se aur kya signals aate hain. Koi bhi future monetary policy adjustments ya additional interventions USD/JPY pair ki direction ko significantly influence kar sakti hain. Traders upcoming economic data releases par bhi nazar rakhenge jo dono countries ki economies ki health aur potential policy responses ke bare mein insight provide karengi.

Short term mein, market volatility experience kar sakti hai jab tak traders recent intervention ka impact digest karte hain aur apni strategies accordingly adjust karte hain. Long-term implications broader economic landscape, jismein growth prospects, inflation trends, aur central bank policies shamil hain, par depend karegi.

Strategic Implications for Traders

Traders ke liye, recent movements in USD/JPY pair central bank actions aur economic developments se informed rehne ki importance ko highlight karte hain. Interventions ke peeche ke motivations aur unka currency pairs par potential impact samajhna informed trading decisions lene ke liye crucial hai. Technical analysis ko fundamental insights ke sath utilize karna traders ko volatile forex market mein navigate karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai.



USD/JPY pair ka significant decline jumma ko, Japanese intervention aur broader US dollar weakness se driven, central bank actions aur market forces ke complex interplay ko underscore karta hai. Jese traders future par nazar rakhte hain, economic indicators aur policy signals par attuned rehna forex market ko successfully navigate karne ke liye key hoga.

USD-JPY Pair Review

Meri technical analysis ke mutabiq, aaj USDJPY currency pair ki movement abhi bhi 157.60 ki price tak barhne ka rujhan rakhti hai. Yeh isliye ke H1 time frame mein USDJPY currency pair ne bullish engulfing candle banayi hai jo ke ek bohot strong signal hai USDJPY ko 157.60 ki price tak BUY karne ka. Lekin hamein aaj USDJPY ke downward correction se bhi hoshiyar rehna chahiye kyunki meri observation ke mutabiq RSI 14 indicator par USDJPY ki price 157.46 par overbought yaani ke zyada khareedi gayi hai, jis ki wajah se yeh bohot mumkin hai ke Asian market mein USDJPY 10-40 pips tak deeply correct ho.

USDJPY H1 timeframe par ek bullish signal dikha raha hai ek strong bullish engulfing candle ke sath, lekin downward correction se bhi hoshiyar rehna zaroori hai considering the overbought conditions on the RSI. SELL USDJPY strategy ko 157.00 tak consider karte hue SBR area aur potential correction bohot wise lagta hai. H4 timeframe par, USDJPY head and shoulders pattern banane ke indications de raha hai jo ke ek reversal indication ho sakta hai agar neckline 157.00 ke qareeb break ho jaye. Yeh aapke mentioned SELL signal ko aur bhi strengthen karta hai.



SELL USDJPY signal ko SNR aur Fibonacci methods bhi support karte hain kyunki jab USDJPY price 157.46 par enter hui thi to yeh already SBR area yaani support become resistance mein thi, isliye bohot mumkin hai ke aaj USDJPY downward correction experience kare aur 157.00 tak aaye. Meri technical analysis ke natayej ke mutabiq, main ne aaj subha decide kiya ke USDJPY ko future mein 157.00 tak SELL karoon.

USD/JPY Market Outlook

Assalam-o-Alaikum aur Good Morning guys!

Kal humne USD/JPY market mein thodi si tabdeeli dekhi. Yeh takreeban 156.60 zone tak pahunch gaya tha. Aur, US dollar ke positive news data ki wajah se buyers ki value barh rahi hai. Isliye, short-term traders ko ihtiyat se aur accordingly trade karna chahiye. D1 chart selling hints provide karne mein bohot important role ada karta hai. Yeh chart valuable insights offer karta hai potential market directions ke bare mein, jo traders ko key levels of support aur resistance identify karne mein madadgar sabit hoti hain. D1 chart ko closely monitor karke, traders prevailing market trends ka clear understanding hasil kar sakte hain aur accordingly apni strategies adjust kar sakte hain. Yeh khas tor par high-probability trading opportunities identify karne mein bohot madadgar ho sakta hai.

Balaakhir, USD/JPY market ek dynamic aur complex environment present karta hai traders ke liye. Selling pressure ka steady increase, aur JPY news events ka asar, challenges aur opportunities dono create karte hain. Is market ko successfully navigate karne ke liye, traders ko ihtiyat se kaam lena chahiye, genuine signals identify karne chahiye, aur common mistakes se bachna chahiye. D1 chart ke insights aur news events ko monitor karne ki importance, disciplined aur informed approach ki zaroorat ko mazid emphasize karte hain. Jaise market evolve ho rahi hai, naye information ke liye adaptable aur responsive rehna trading success hasil karne ke liye crucial hoga.



Hum ek sell position 156.45 ka short target le kar open kar sakte hain. Aur, traders ko long-term perspective maintain karna chahiye. Jabke short-term market movements volatile aur unpredictable ho sakti hain, long-term view traders ko broader trends par focus karne ka moka deta hai aur temporary fluctuations se sway hone se bachata hai. Yeh approach traders ko unki overall trading strategy par focused rehne aur emotional trading ke pitfalls se bachne mein madadgar ho sakti hai. Apne trading mein stop laws zaroor use karein aur US trading zone ke duran ehtiyat bartein.

Aap sab ka Friday successful rahe!

USDJPY Analysis

Market pair UsdJpy timeframe jo kal Wednesday ko dekhne mein aayi, sellers ka dominance continue raha jo price ko kaafi deep bearish le gaye jab buyers dobara price ko upar le jane mein nakam rahe kyunki wo sellers ke resistance area 158.48-158.45 ko break out karne mein kamyab nahi ho sake. Sellers ne is opportunity ko use kiya aur selling pressure ko badhaya, jisne price ko kaafi strongly bearish downward move kar diya.



Daily timeframe mein Bollinger bands indicator ka istemal karte hue, yeh dekha gaya ke price ko sellers ne control mein rakha aur successfully Lower Bollinger bands area 157.04-157.00 ko break kar diya jo pehle buyers ne maintain kiya hua tha. Strong seller pressure bhi strong bearish candlesticks se dekha ja sakta hai jo indicate karte hain ke UsdJpy market pair kaafi strongly bearish downward move karta rahega aur agla bearish target buyer's demand support area 152.75-152.70 ki taraf hoga jo ab tak bearish seller pressure se test nahi hua.

Thursday ke trading mein European market session se pehle dekha gaya ke buyers ne dubara entry li aur sellers se ziada strong the jo buyer's support area 155.60-155.50 ko break karne mein mushkilat mehsoos kar rahe the. Isliye prices ne direction reverse ki aur bullish move up kiya. Bullish buyer target price ko seller's resistance area 157.80-157.84 ki taraf le jane ki koshish karta hai. Agar buyer is area ke upar penetrate karne mein fail hota hai, to price kaafi strongly bearish downward move karne lagegi aur bearish target buyer support area 155.27-155.25 hoga.

Conclusion:

Sell entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar seller najdeek buyer support area 155.27-155.25 ko penetrate karne mein kamyab ho jaye aur TP target area 154.38-154.35 ho.



Buy entry tab ki ja sakti hai agar buyer najdeek seller resistance area 157.80-157.84 ke upar penetrate karne mein kamyab ho jaye aur TP target area 159.50-159.53 ho.

Technical Analysis of the USDJPY Pair

4-Hour Chart

Is hafte ke doran aur ziada decline ka intezar hai jabke price ne blue channel ko successfully break kiya. Is hafte ke trading descending price channels ke andar shuru hui jo pehle do hafton ke trend ko represent karte hain. Pehle, price ko lower channel line se support mila, lekin jab price weekly pivot level par pohanchi to yeh bounce down kar gayi aur weekly pivot ke sath ek price peak banayi.

Is hafte ke trading advice yeh hai ke selling opportunities par focus karein, kyun ke humare paas selling enter karne ke do levels hain. Pehla level current level hai jahan price channel ko break karne mein kamyab hui aur kuch waqt ke liye sideways direction mein move kar sakti hai aur phir decline kar ke 156.26 level ko break kar sakti hai. Dusra level sale ka 154.61 level ke niche hoga, jahan price downward price channels ko successfully break kar chuki hai.

Economic Side

Economic side par, Japanese yen ka price recent waqt mein momentum maintain karne mein nakam raha kyunki authorities currency ki weakness se deal kar rahi hain. Yen significantly gir gaya hai aur policymakers bar bar indicate kar rahe hain ke woh currency ko support karne ke liye intervene karne ko tayar hain. Magar, kya yeh kaafi hai ya der ho gayi hai?... Bloomberg News ke data ke mutabiq, Tokyo forex markets mein agle din phir se enter ho sakta hai aur lagbhag $13.5 billion pump kar sakta hai. Yeh us waqt hua jab Japanese officials ne shayad $20 billion se intervene kiya. Forex market trading ke mutabiq, USD/JPY price 158.80 level ke aas paas stabilize hui, recent selling operations se recover karte hue jo ise 157.15 support level tak push kar gayi thi, lekin dobara se pair decline karna shuru ho gaya.

Japanese yen ke performance par comment karte hue, Hirofumi Suzuki, chief forex analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, ne Business News Network ke interview mein kaha: "Yeh indicate karta hai ke 2 trillion yen ke scale par intervention bohot mumkin hai." "Mujhe lagta hai ke strategy ka maksad yeh tha ke market participants movement ko pehle se na padh sakein."



Overall, agar yeh move accurate hai, to yeh latest step ek mahine baad aata hai jab currency regulators ne Forex foreign exchange markets mein $36 billion se intervene kiya tha. Experts ka dawa hai ke Tokyo ke leaders yeh measures istemal kar rahe hain jabke US data aur foreign speculators release ho rahe hain. Lekin market watchers kehte hain ke yeh moves traders ko signal karte hain ke yeh moves bohot choti hain, aur observers kahtay hain ke yen ko support karne ke liye aur paisa pump karna chahiye.

USD/JPY Price Recap

Hum USD/JPY currency pair ki pricing movements ka live analysis kar rahe hain. Analysts ke mutabiq, Bank of Japan ne pichle hafte yen par speculative pressure ko kam karne ke liye intervene kiya. In koshishon ke bawajood, long-term impact mushkil lagta hai kyunki Japan ki key interest rate major competitors se kam hai aur recession risks ki wajah se further monetary tightening unlikely hai. Detailed insights Bank of Japan ke balance sheet report mein mil sakti hain. Aakhri data 11 July ko publish hua tha, USDJPY pair ke collapse se pehle, aur agla report is hafte ke end par due hai. USD/JPY currency pair ne 159.01 support ke niche dip karne ke baad selling priority shift kar li. Ab price upward correct kar raha hai aur pehle resistance zone 25% - 158.54 ki taraf barh raha hai. Agar sell signal aata hai, to ise closely dekhna chahiye kyunki iska potential high hai.



Immediate targets 156.64 control aur 150% zones - 154.14 hain. Magar agar is area se downward movement nahi hoti, to resistance 159.79 viable selling point rehta hai with the targets above. Chart mein blue candlesticks buying priority indicate karte hain. Price ne channel ke lower border ko cross kiya, minimum point se bounce kiya, channel mein wapas aaya aur phir middle line ki taraf move kiya. Saath hi, RSI oscillator buy signal ko confirm karta hai kyunki uski curve rising hai aur overbought level ke qareeb nahi hai. Isliye, ek long buy trade likely hai, jo upper channel limit 160.546 ko target karta hai. Position ko phir breakeven par move kar sakte hain aur further profit growth ka intezar kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Do din tak 158.50 level ke neeche sideways pattern mein trade karne ke baad, pair ki price ne 158.88 resistance level ko break kar diya. Aaj, prices ne sideways price channels aur weekly pivot level ke neeche trade karna shuru kiya. Upward trend ke bawajood, price sideways trade kar rahi thi, lower channel lines se support aur upper channel lines se resistance lete hue. Kyunki current candle ne peechle do dino ki highest trading price ko break kar diya hai, 159.30 level tak buy karna mumkin hai. USD/JPY currency pair ki strong upward trajectory ke bawajood, global central banks ki monetary policies supportive hain.



Lagta hai ke pair weekly resistance level 158.75 ki taraf barh rahi hai, jo pair ki future direction ke liye ek important area hai. Pichle hafte ke price movement ko ek bearish red channel represent karta hai, aur pichle do hafton ke price movement ko ek blue channel represent karta hai. Is ke ilawa, weekly pivot level is hafte ke opening se neeche tha, jo bearish trend ke continue rehne ka ishara de raha hai. Agar is hafte ek successful upward wave hoti hai jo weekly pivot level, red channel, aur 158.10 resistance ko break kar deti hai, to market rise karna continue karegi. Yeh point rebound aur downward trend ki wapsi ka aghaz ho sakta hai, ya yeh overall trend mein tabdeeli ka ishara ho sakta hai, potentially price ko 157.95 level tak push kar sakta hai for a breakout attempt.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

Pichle kaam ke hafte Japanese yen ne ek bottom form kiya aur aakhir kaar significantly strengthen hona shuru ho gaya. Price ne pehle ke high 161.95 ke area ko touch kiya, magar is level tak na pohanchte hue, ek reversal shuru ki aur phir sharply gir gayi, signal zone ko break karte hue aur 158.43 ke level ke neeche chali gayi. Is tarah, expected sustainable development scenario materialize nahi hua. Is darmiyan, price chart super-trending red zone mein move kar raha hai, jo selling pressure indicate kar raha hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, hum aaj bullish hain, relying on short-term support 160.95 level ke upar, aur simple moving average ke pullback par jo price ko neeche se support de raha hai, saath hi rising technical indicator bhi hai. Hum bullish trend reversal dekh sakte hain jahan pehla target 161.85 ho sakta hai, aur iske upar break hone par gains extend ho kar pair ko 162.20 aur 162.70 ki taraf le jayenge. Yaad rahe, ke 160.95 ke neeche move negative pressure dalega pair par jo 160.40 aur 160.10 ko retest karega pehle ke agla trend form ho.



Abhi prices weekly lows ke kareeb sharply gir rahi hain. Key support area pressure ko withstand nahi kar saka aur break ho gaya, aur ab price neeche consolidate ho rahi hai, jo downside ki taraf preferred vector ki shift ko indicate kar raha hai. Abhi price 158.43 level ka reversal retest kar rahi hai, jo major resistance zone ke kareeb hai. Retest aur is level se subsequent rebound ek nayi downward wave ka raasta kholenge jo 154.75 aur 153.35 areas ki taraf aimed hogi.

Agar resistance overcome ho jata hai aur price 160.26 ke reversal level ko break kar deti hai, to current scenario cancel hone ka signal milega.

**USD/JPY Tafseeli Jaiza: U.S.-China Ta'alluqat Ka Asar**

**U.S.-China Ta'alluqat:**

Duniya ke do sab se bade maqasad ko le kar America aur China ke darmiyan tanazur market mein asar andaz ho sakte hain, jis mein USD/JPY currency pair shamil hai. Trade muzakrat, tariffs, aur sanctions aise factors hain jo is pair mein gehrayi se mutasir ho sakte hain.

**USD/JPY Par Asar:**

1. **Trade Muzakrat:**
- **Volatility:** America aur China ke darmiyan trade muzakrat market mein volatility paida kar sakte hain. Musbat tabdeeliyan jaise agreements ya tensions mein kami, risk sentiment ko taqwiyat deti hain. Aksar is se JPY kamzor hota hai jab investors safe-haven assets se door jate hain. Magar nakam negotiations ya barhte hue tensions JPY ki taraf logon ko le ja sakte hain, jo USD ke khilaf taqat denge.
- **Maeeshati Asar:** Kamyab trade agreements dono mulkon ke liye maeeshati nashonuma mein izafa kar sakte hain, jo agar America ki maeeshat ko faida pohnchata hai to USD ko mazbooti mil sakti hai. Magar Japan ki maeeshat bhi behtar global trade shuruaat se mustafeed ho sakti hai, jo USD/JPY par asar ko barqarar kar sakti hai.

2. **Tariffs aur Sanctions:**
- **Fori Reactions:** Tariffs ya sanctions lagane se fori market reactions ho sakte hain. Tariffs barhna global trade ko nuqsaan pohnchate hain, jo investors ko JPY jaise safe-haven currencies ki taraf raghib kar sakte hain, jis se USD/JPY pair kamzor hota hai.
- **Dairpa Asrat:** Mustamar trade tensions aur sanctions global maeeshat ko slow kar sakte hain. USD/JPY pair ke liye, America ki maeeshat ki kamzori China ke sath trade masail ke wajah se USD ko kamzor kar sakti hai. Japan jo export par mabni hai, woh bhi nuqsaan utha sakti hai, lekin JPY ki safe-haven haisiyat aam tor par muqarar rahti hai mushkil waqt mein.

**Bunyadi Tafseeli Jaiza:**

1. **Maeeshati Data:**
- **American Maeeshati Hawalat:** GDP growth, rozgar ki shumar, aur manufacturing data jaise key indicators U.S.-China ta'alluqat ke asar ko darshate hain. Trade tensions ke urooj se America ki maeeshat par manfi asrat ho sakte hain jo USD ko kamzor kar sakte hain.
- **Japanese Maeeshati Hawalat:** Japan ki maeeshat ki performance, jaise trade balance aur industrial production, bhi U.S.-China ta'alluqat se mutasir ho sakti hai. Global trade mein kami Japan ki export par asar andaz ho sakti hai, lekin JPY apni safe-haven appeal ki wajah se taqatwar reh sakti hai.

2. **Markazi Bank Policies:**
- **Federal Reserve:** U.S. Federal Reserve jo trade tensions ke jawab mein interest rates adjust karta hai, USD/JPY pair par asar andaz hota hai. Rate cuts USD ko kamzor kar sakte hain, jabke stable ya hawkish stance isay support kar sakte hain.
- **Bank of Japan:** Bank of Japan ke policies, jaise ke uski low ya negative interest rate policy, JPY par asar andaz karte hain. U.S.-China tensions ke waqt, BoJ economy ko support karne ke liye rates ko low rakhne ka intikhab kar sakti hai, lekin JPY ki safe-haven haisiyat aam tor par muqarar rahti hai.

**Siyaasi Tawanayi Ka Izhar:**

- **Political Statements aur Actions:** America ya China ke leaders ke bayaniyat market mein harkat paida kar sakte hain. Maslan, aggressive rhetoric ya naye policies ke ilan se USD/JPY pair mein volatility barh sakti hai.
- **Global Risk Sentiment:** U.S.-China ta'alluqat se mutasir siyasi aur alami waqiat, jaise ke intizami tensions ya ittihadat, market sentiment par asar andaz hote hain. Barta hua alami risk JPY ko faida pohnchata hai uski safe-haven haisiyat ki wajah se.

**Nateeja:**

U.S.-China ta'alluqat USD/JPY currency pair par gehrayi se asar andaz hote hain, jis mein market sentiment aur maeeshati surat-e-hal ka tasur hota hai. Trade negotiations, tariffs, aur sanctions aise factors hain jo is pair mein tezi se harkat pohncha sakte hain. In siyasi tawanayon ko monit karne, sath hi maeeshati indicators aur markazi bank policies ko samajhna traders ke liye zaroori hai jo USD/JPY market mein karobar kar rahe hain. Moasir risk management aur U.S.-China ke naye ta'alukaat ke baray mein agahi rakhna trading decisions mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai.

Trading Overview aur USD/JPY par Tips

Jab 157.70 ki price test hui, tou MACD indicator zero mark se neechay girna shuru ho raha tha, jo dollar bechnay ka acha entry point confirm karta hai. Nateeja yeh hua ke losses record hui, kyunke USD/JPY actively nahi gira. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ki speech par zyada rely karna ghalat sabit hua, kyunke unhone zyada kuch nahi bataya. Is wajah se sell signal realize nahi ho saka jo theek se open hua tha aur downward trend ke continuation mein tha. Nateeja yeh hua ke sab dollar kharidnay lage aur pair Asian session mein mazboot hua. Japanese services activity index ke kamzor data ne bhi yen par pressure dala. Main personally expect karta hoon ke pair upar jayega, lekin main market mein enter karke buy karne ki koshish karunga jitna low ho sake aur un prices par jo growth ke liye suitable hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada rely karunga scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par.

Buy Signals

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price entry point 158.88 par pohonche jo chart par green line se plotted hai, growth ka target 159.39 hai jo chart par moti green line se plotted hai. 159.39 ke aas paas, main long positions exit karunga aur short ones opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting ke 30-35 pips ka movement opposite direction mein hoga us level se. Aaj pair ki rise par bharosa kiya ja sakta hai ke bullish correction continue karega. Kharidne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur bas us se rise karna shuru ho raha hai.

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY kharidne ka plan karta hoon agar 158.47 ke do consecutive tests hon jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur reverse market upturn ki taraf le jayega. Growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 158.88 aur 159.39 tak.

Sell Signals

Scenario No. 1: Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan karta hoon sirf tab jab 158.47 ka level test ho jo chart par red line se plotted hai, jo price mein rapid decline lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target 158.02 hoga, jahan main short positions exit karunga aur foran long ones opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting ke 20-25 pips ka movement opposite direction mein hoga us level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khaaskar agar price intraday high ke aas paas consolidate na ho. Bechnay se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se neechay hai aur bas us se decline karna shuru ho raha hai.



Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan karta hoon agar 158.88 ke do consecutive price tests hon jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur reverse market downturn ki taraf le jayega. Expect kar sakte hain ke decline opposite levels 157.47 aur 158.02 tak hoga.

Hamari Guftagu USD/JPY Currency Pair ke Mojooda Price Action ka Jaiza

Aksar, Monday ko market girti rehti hai aur lower Bollinger band tak pohonch sakti hai, yeh dekhte hue ke price aur neeche girti hai ya nahi. Agar is point se upward turn dekha jaye, tou growth wapas MA pair aur middle Bollinger band ke 158.67/161.02 area ke aas paas aa sakti hai. Is moqa par, hum dekhenge ke price higher break karti hai ya in averages se wapas downward revert hoti hai. Agar price increase hoti hai, tou yeh upper Bollinger band, jo ke is waqt 161.58 par hai, ke qareeb aa sakti hai. Halanki USD/JPY pair ek upward trajectory par hai, yeh Friday ko decline ke sath end hui. Weekend ke doran, main daily time frame ko dekhoon ga, jahan price ne lower Bollinger band 156.32 ko touch kiya aur thodi si rebound hui.



Ek taraf, USD/JPY pair dollar ke overall downward trend ke sath align karti hai, jo ke US inflation data se driven hai. Doosri taraf, aur yeh meri khud ki subjective raaye hai, yen kisi bhi waqt apni persistent decline ko end kar sakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, tou discussed pair aur gir sakti hai chahe doosri US dollar pairs apni rates shift karen. Japan dheere dheere positive market data show kar raha hai. Friday ko, industrial production mein 3.5% ka increase report hua, jo forecasted 1.7% se zyada tha, aur pehle ke 0.8% decline ke muqablay mein notable hai. Hum confirm kar sakte hain ke pair 156.79 (Murray 4.7) par hold karti hai. Agar yeh support likely hai, tou bears 155.23 level (Murray 3.7) ko target kar sakte hain. Lekin, iske bawajood, yeh likelihood short positions resume karne ke liye kaafi nahi hai, chahe yeh barrier likely hi kyun na ho. Resistance, jo ke Kijun H4 line se mazboot hua hai, ab 158.35 (Murray 5.7) par hai.

Shab Bakhair

USDJPY pair ne grow karne ki koshish ki lekin 158.78 level par ruk gayi, jahan se ek chhoti pullback shuru hui. Chhote timeframes par, yeh pullback 158.47 level par halt hui, aur is level se rebound expected hai jo pair ke growth ka lead karegi. Agar 158.87 level break hoti hai, tou yeh bearish 5-minute timeframe (TF M5) ko bullish mein badal degi, jo ke bullish 15-minute timeframe (TF M15) se support hogi. Pair ka continued decline aur 158.20 level ka breakdown yeh bullish signal M15 timeframe par negate kar dega.

1-hour (TF H1) timeframe bearish hai, aur is timeframe ka breakdown tab hoga jab pair grow karte hue 159.37 pivot level se upar break kare aur wahan consolidate kare. 4-hour (TF H4) timeframe bhi bearish hai, aur isko negate karne ke liye, pair ko 160.16, 160.94, aur 161.72 pivot levels se upar break karke 161.97 high par consolidate karna hoga.

Daily timeframe bullish hai, aur yeh tab break hogi jab pair decline karke 154.70 level se neeche consolidate kare.



Bari tasveer mein, USDJPY pair buying pressure mein hai, aur reference price range 15-minute chart par lower impulse level hai. Market mein entry karna buying ke liye, long-term trend ko continue karne ke liye, tab consider hoga jab price 158.72 high par wapas aake consolidate kare. Is case mein, critical range 157.37 low hogi, jo protective order ka level hoga. Halanki, mojooda local levels 158.62 ke aas paas, opposite direction mein move, yani sell, bhi consider kiya ja raha hai. Pair ke 158.45 reference range tak decline hone ka probability, us se neeche consolidate hone ke sath, moving average indicator se signal dega, jo confirm karega ke buyers market ko move karne ki ability kho chuke hain aur ek medium-term sell trade prepare ki jani chahiye.

USD/JPY ka scenario agar northern tint ko consider karein, toh yeh bhi possible hai, aur yeh trading instrument pe asani se implement ho sakta hai. Agar market open hone ke baad hum seedha yahan se 158.56 ke accumulation tak grow karein, aur wahan se price neeche jaye aur 157.91 level se neeche nahi jaane de, toh us case mein 157.91 se hum tezi se upar ja sakte hain 160.39 ke accumulated volumes area tak. Agar market open hone ke baad USD/JPY pair seedha neeche jata hai, aur past price growth se 157.91 level tak pohonch gaya hai jo reality mein rebound level ho sakta hai, toh hum initial key mein neeche ja sakte hain 156.45 ke accumulation area tak test karne ke liye. Agar yeh hota hai, toh 156.45 area mein clear ho jayega ke humein kahan aur kaise move karna hai. Yahan sellers ko thoda aur decline milega; yeh 155.400 hai, aur lower border ko touch karke buyers react karenge aur long positions open karenge upar jaane ke aim se, broken support tak.

USD/JPY pair ka surge 161.951 tak broader macroeconomic factors ko bhi reflect karta hai, khaaskar interest rate differentials Japan aur United States ke beech. Federal Reserve ka tightening cycle, jo inflation se combat karne ke liye interest rates increase kar raha hai, BOJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy se contrast karta hai. Widening interest rate gap US dollar ko zyada attractive banata hai investors ke liye jo higher yields ki talash mein hain, isliye USD/JPY pair higher ja raha hai.

US retail sales data bhi is dynamic ko influence karta hai. Strong retail sales figures United States mein robust consumer spending indicate karti hain, jo higher inflation aur consequently more aggressive interest rate hikes ka lead le sakti hain by the Federal Reserve. US interest rates ke higher prospect relative to Japan's rates demand fuel karta hai US dollar ke against yen. Conversely, weaker retail sales Fed rate hikes ke expectations ko temper kar sakti hain, potentially easing upward pressure on USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY pair ka rise 151.856 se 161.951 significant influence highlight karta hai Bank of Japan ki monetary policy stance ya uski absence pe currency market ko. BOJ ke June meeting mein QT ke details ki absence yen weakness aur dollar strength mein contribute karti hai. Additionally, interest rate differentials jo contrasting policies driven hain BOJ aur Federal Reserve ki, is movement mein crucial role play karti hain. US retail sales data bhi ek aur layer of complexity add karti hai, affecting expectations for future interest rate adjustments aur, by extension, USD/JPY exchange rate. Traders aur investors ko closely monitor karna chahiye yeh factors to navigate potential volatility in this currency pair.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Selling Pressure Jaari

Is trading week ke aghaz par USD/JPY exchange rate 158.00 ke aas paas stable rahi, aur pichle hafte se strong selling pressure ke bawajood stable rahi. Price collapse hui jab resistance level 161.90 ko hit kiya, jo 38 saalon mein yen ki sabse lowest price thi, aur decline support level 157.37 tak extend hui. USD/JPY exchange rate ke current price tak hit hone ki umeed hai, aur downward trend abhi bhi US inflation data ke release ka intezar kar raha hai.

Reliable trading company platform ke mutabiq, yen dollar ke muqablay mein 158 yen par weak trade kar raha tha, jab traders alert par the ke pichle hafte Japanese authorities ke suspected intervention se yen qareeb 2% gain kar gaya tha. Yen last week 157.36 yen per dollar tak barh gaya jab US inflation data expectations se neeche aaye aur Bank of Japan ke data ne dikhaya ke hukoomat ne yen ko boost karne ke liye Thursday ko 3.57 trillion yen tak kharch kiye. Analysts ne warning di ke Monday ka holiday ek aur round of yen buying trigger kar sakta hai Japanese authorities ke taraf se, weak liquidity ka faida uthate hue, jaise late April mein hua tha.

Monetary policy ke perspective se, investors Bank of Japan ke July ke end par hone wale meeting ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan central bank apne bond-buying program ko reduce karne ka announcement kar sakta hai aur shayad ek aur rate hike ka bhi. Bahar se, yen ek stronger dollar se pressure mein hai, jo ke former US President Donald Trump ke assassination ke baad safe-haven asset se benefit le raha hai.



Daily chart ke developments ko dekhte hue, USD/JPY pair bearish trajectory par hai aur agar 158.00 support level ka breakout hota hai tou bears ka control trend par mazboot ho jayega, aur agar yeh hota hai tou yeh period mein downtrend ko confirm karega aur pair ko support levels 155.70 aur 153.00 tak le jayega. Yeh Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market ko zaroori bana dega, aur saath hi US dollar mein continued weakness after lower-than-expected US retail sales ke release ke baad. Doosri taraf, isi period ke doran, psychological resistance level 160.00 bulls ke liye trend ka control wapas pane ke liye sabse important resistance rahega.

USD/JPY Trading ka Jaiza aur Tips

Price test 157.70 ka tab hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se girna shuru hua tha, jo ke dollar bechne ke liye ek acha entry point confirm karta hai. Natija yeh hua ke losses record huye, kyunki USD/JPY actively nahi gira. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke speech par bohot zyada rely karna ghalat sabit hua, kyunki unhone kuch khaas nahi bataya. Yeh sell signal ko realize hone nahi de saka, jo ke sahi tareeke se aur downward trend ke continuation mein open hua tha. Iska natija yeh hua ke sab dollar khareedne ke liye bhaag gaye, aur pair Asian session mein mazboot hua. Japanese services activity index ke weak data ne bhi yen par pressure dala. Shakhsan, mujhe umeed hai ke pair upar jayega, lekin main market mein enter karne ki koshish karunga taake jitna neeche se ho sake aur growth ke liye zyada suitable prices par. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada rely karunga.

Buy Signals

Scenario No. 1
Aaj main USD/JPY khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price entry point tak pohonche jo ke chart par green line se 158.88 ke aas paas hai, aur growth ke liye aim hai jo ke chart par thicker green line se 159.39 tak hai. 159.39 ke aas paas, main long positions ko exit karke opposite direction mein short ones open karunga, expecting ke 30-35 pips opposite direction mein move hoga. Aap yeh umeed kar sakte hain ke pair aaj rise karega aur bullish correction ko continue karega. Buy karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur bas rise karna shuru hua hai.

Scenario No. 2
Main aaj USD/JPY khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 158.47 ke do consecutive tests hoon jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit kar dega aur market upturn ka lead karega. Aap growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 158.88 aur 159.39 tak.

Sell Signals

Scenario No. 1
Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon sirf tab jab 158.47 level test ho jo chart par red line se plotted hai, jo price mein rapid decline ka lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target 158.02 hoga, jahan main short positions ko exit karke immediately long ones open karunga opposite direction mein, expecting ke 20-25 pips opposite direction mein move hoga. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, especially agar price intraday high ke aas paas consolidate karne mein fail ho jaye. Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche hai aur bas decline karna shuru hua hai.



Scenario No. 2
Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 158.88 ke do consecutive price tests hoon jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit kar dega aur market downturn ka lead karega. Aap decline expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 157.47 aur 158.02 tak.