USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY market ko ab 143.00 level ke upar rehne ka challenge darpaish hai. Agar yeh support level hold karta hai, toh bulls ko agay barhne ka mauqa milega, aur woh 144.00 ka round mark target karenge. Agar price 144.00 se upar jata hai, toh aglay levels 144.70 aur 145.00 expose ho jayenge. Lekin agar price 143.00 se neeche girta hai, toh bears ke paas zyada solid reasons honge price ko neeche le jane ke liye. Agar yeh scenario hota hai, toh pehla target 142.60 hoga, phir 142.00. Agar price is level se neeche jata hai, toh levels 141.50 aur 141.30 expose ho jayenge. Daily trading diagram upside ki taraf signal de raha hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke price accordingly move karega.

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements ka analysis karenge. Main 4-hour chart par USD/JPY currency pair ke liye buying ka ek mauqa dekhta hoon. Current price 142.168 hai, jo ek potential entry point hai. Profit-taking target 145.450 hai, jo buyer support kayam rehne par achievable lagta hai. Friday ko future growth ke duran clearing campaign ka comfort zone ban raha tha, aur 25 September ko Wednesday ke options ke expiration ka imkaan tha. Magar rise Monday aur Wednesday ke call options tak nahi pohoncha. Monday ke next option ka comfort zone current se teen strikes ooper hoga, jo future growth ka achha indicator hai, is se USD/JPY pair ke girne ka imkaan lagta hai. Lekin Wednesday se pehle growth ka target banana behtar nahi hoga, kyun ke yeh zero mark se expiration level trigger kar sakta hai, jo dollar buying ke liye sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai. Natija mein pair lagbhag 50 pips upar gaya, magar main 143.49 ka target level nahi pohonch saka. Retail sales ke achhe figures ne Japan ke kamzor reports ko offset kiya.

Japan ke Manufacturing PMI 50-point mark se neeche raha, jo activity ke contraction ko zahir karta hai, jiski wajah se yen gir gaya aur bullish dollar market ka silsila jari raha. Magar yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke hum ek bearish trend mein hain, aur jitna upar pair jayega, utni hi bari sellers ke market mein wapis anay ki chances barh jati hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main Scenarios #1 aur #2 par zyada reliance rakhunga.

Buy Signal:

Scenario #1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko khareedne ka plan banata hoon jab price 144.52 ke aas paas pohonche (chart par green line), aur target level 145.38 hoga (thicker green line). 145.38 ke level par main buy positions se exit karunga aur sell positions opposite direction mein kholunga (30-35 pips ki movement opposite direction mein expect karta hoon). Pair ka growth correction ke framework mein ho sakta hai. Important! Buy karne se pehle ensure karen ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur rise karna shuru kare.

Scenario #2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko uss waqt bhi khareedne ka plan banata hoon jab price 144.16 ka do dafa test kare aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reversal upwards ka imkaan banayega. Growth ki umeed 144.52 aur 145.38 ke levels tak ho sakti hai

Chart ke mutabiq jo abhi market ka level 149.41 dikhata hai, kaafi ahmiyat rakhta hai kyunke bulls kal se market mein action mein hain. Aaj, USDJPY ka price support level 149.00 ko test kar sakta hai, jo correction ka hissa hoga. Market mein correction ek zaroori element hai, jo stability aur sustainability ke liye darkaar hota hai. Daily time frame ka istamaal karke, humara focus lambi muddat ke trends par hota hai, jo traders ko ek bara tasveer dikhata hai aur yeh samajhne mein madad deta hai ke current market conditions kis tarah bade trend mein fit hoti hain. Hourly chart chhoti muddat ka pullback dikhata hai, lekin daily chart se pata chalta hai ke overall downtrend abhi bhi intact hai.
Multi-timeframe analysis traders ko better insights dene mein madadgar sabit hoti hai. Is approach ka fayda yeh hai ke traders jaldi apni positions exit nahi karte, aur lambi muddat ke bearish outlook par committed rehte hain. Jo USDJPY mein invest karte hain, unke liye price action ko qareebi nazar se monitor karna zaroori hota hai, taake potential reversals ya trend consolidations ko pehchana ja sake. Market mein aise periods aate hain jab price consolidate ya range mein hoti hai, jo market participants ke darmiyan indecision ka indication deti hai. Aise dauran, hamesha ehtiyaat baratna chahiye aur ek single direction mein overcommitment se bachna chahiye jab tak market clearer signals nahi deti.

Jab market consolidation zone se breakout karti hai, toh aksar strong price movements hoti hain, jo ya toh downtrend ka continuation hota hai, ya ek potential reversal ka signal deti hai. Jo traders sabr se kaam lete hain aur breakout ke confirmation ka intezaar karte hain, woh apne aap ko next significant move ka faida uthana ka mauqa dete hain.

Abhi ke waqt, bears control mein hain, lekin yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke markets kabhi kabhi unexpected ho sakti hain. Bahar ke asraat, jaise ke economic news, geopolitical events, ya monetary policy mein tabdeeliyaan, sentiment mein achanak shifts ka sabab ban sakti hain. Is lihaaz se, chahe bearish ya bullish traders hoon, sab ko apni risk management strategy ko hamesha behtareen rakhna chahiye. Markets ka unpredictable nature hamesha ek challenge hota hai, isliye informed decisions lena aur market developments ko closely follow karna badi ahmiyat rakhta hai.

USD/JPY pair jo is waqt lagbhag 149.10 par trade kar raha hai, ek bearish trend ko reflect karta hai. Market dheere chal raha hai, magar yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke qareebi mustaqbil mein koi aham harkat dekhne ko mile. Kaee wajahein hain jo is intezar ko barhne wali uljhan ki umeedat karti hain.
Pehli baat yeh hai ke market ka jazba aksar aham iqtisadi events ke intezar mein badalta rehta hai. U.S. Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke mukhtalif monetary policy stance ke saath, traders donon central banks ke faislon aur bayanaat par qareebi nazar rakhe hue hain. Federal Reserve ne apna hawkish (sakht) rawayya barqarar rakha hai, inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barhaye gaye hain, jabke Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko jari rakhe hue hai. Amreeki aur Japani faiz daroon ke farq ne chand maheenon mein USD/JPY ko chalanay wali ek aham quwwat ke tor par kaam kiya hai.

Magar, Federal Reserve ke hawkish rawayye ke bawajood, kuch aise asar hain jo inflation mein kami aur U.S. economy ke slow hone ki nishandahi karte hain, jo ke faiz daroon ke rukne ya ulatne ka sabab ban sakte hain. Agar Federal Reserve ek dovish (narm) rawayya ikhtiyar karta hai, to dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai aur yen ke muqable mein USD/JPY gir sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar U.S. economy ki mazbooti ke asaar milte hain, jese ke mazboot job growth ya inflation mein izafa, to pair ek aur upward push dekh sakta hai.

Japan ka kirdar bhi future movements ke liye nihayat aham hai. Bank of Japan ne abhi tak manfi faiz daroon par apna rawayya tabdeel karne se inkar kiya hai, bawajood is ke ke mulk mein inflation barh raha hai. Magar, market mein afwahain barh rahi hain ke BOJ ko aakhir kaar tightening ki taraf jana par sakta hai, khas tor par agar inflation barh ta raha ya yen had se zyada kamzor hua, jo ke Japani hukoomat ki mudakhlat ka sabab ban sakta hai. BOJ ke kisi bhi policy tabdeeli ka ishara USD/JPY mein tez harkat paida kar sakta hai.

Geopolitical factors aur global markets mein risk sentiment bhi pair mein volatility ko barha sakte hain. Investors aksar uncertainty ke doran safe-haven assets, jese ke yen, ko pasand karte hain, aur global risk sentiment mein koi bhi achanak tabdeeli USD/JPY ke exchange rate mein tez ulat phirat la sakti hai.

Akhir mein, halan ke USD/JPY market haal mein kaafi khamosh raha hai, lekin mojooda bearish trend aur iqtisadi, geopolitical aur policy factors ka majmooa is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke qareebi mustaqbil mein ek aham harkat ho sakti hai. Traders ko chahiye ke wo aham iqtisadi ashare aur central bank ke bayanaat par qareebi nazar rakhein ta ke aanay wali tabdeeli ke asaar ko samajh sakein.

USD/JPY: Ek ghantay ka time frame recommendation
Mojooda USD/JPY ki qeemat 148.80 ke qareeb hai. Kal yeh 149.33 ke level se neeche aayi hai, jo ke United States Financial Department ki manfi khabron ki wajah se hua. Aaj, USD/JPY ke sellers ko in developments par qareebi nazar rakhni chahiye, kyun ke koi bhi achanak khabar ya data release tez reversals ka sabab ban sakta hai, jo ke risks aur opportunities dono paida kar sakta hai. Economic calendars aur news feeds ko dekhna sellers ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai, taake wo tajurbaat ki roshni mein trading faislay kar sakein. Maslan, agar aanay wale iqtisadi ashare kamzor economy ya corporate earnings mein mayusi dikhate hain, to yeh sellers ke liye faida mand sabit ho sakta hai, jo unhein munafa kamanay ke liye zaroori momentum dega.

Iske ilawa, USD/JPY ke sellers aaj dopahar mein 148.66 ka support level test kar sakte hain. Jazbat (sentiment) aksar market movements ko shape karte hain, aur investors ke darmiyan mojooda jazba samajhna trading strategies ke liye ahem sabit ho sakta hai. Agar market sentiment manfi khabron ya bearish trends ki wajah se pessimistic hota hai, to yeh sellers ko mazeed taqat de sakta hai ke wo qeematon mein girawat se faida uthayein. Sentiment indicators, Commitment of Traders (COT) report, ya social media sentiment analysis jese tools bohot zaroori insights faraham kar sakte hain ke baqi market ke participants kis tarah position le rahe hain, jo ke sellers ke trading approach ko mutasir kar sakti hain.

Mojooda USD/JPY environment mein, sellers ke paas kai mokaey hain ke wo market movements se faida utha sakein. Market mein favorable conditions hain jo ke sellers ko madad deti hain ke wo strategic tor par trades enter kar sakein aur neeche ke rukh mein trading shuru kar sakein. Agar wo ghaur se analysis karein aur ek wazeh strategy banayein, to sellers ke liye munafa kamanay ke chances barh sakte hain.

**USD/JPY Outlook Analysis:**
USD/JPY ke D1 time frame chart par, USD/JPY currency pair is waqt mazboot upward momentum dikhata hai, jo ke haal hi ke sessions mein apne bullish trend ko jari rakhe hue hai. Pair musalsal ooper ja raha hai, jise mazid taqat US dollar ke mazboot hone aur United States ki faidamand iqtisadi surat-e-haal de rahi hai. Magar, jab yeh kuch ahem resistance levels ke qareeb aata hai, to ehtiyat zaroori hai. Pehla ahem resistance lagbhag 148.76 ke ilaaqe mein hai, aur us ke qareeb ek aur psychologically ahem level 149.20 par hai. Yeh levels bohot ahem hain ye dekhne ke liye ke kya yeh pair apne bullish momentum ko barqarar rakh sakta hai ya koi pullback nazdeek hai.

148.76 par resistance ek technically ahem zone hai, kyun ke is ne tareekhi tor par mazeed upward movement ke liye rukawat ka kaam kiya hai. Agar is level ke ooper kamiyabi se break milta hai, to yeh mazeed buying interest ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo ke price ko 149.20 ke qareeb le ja sakta hai. Yeh psychological level ek ahem had hai, jo traders ki zyada tawajjo ko apni taraf khinchta hai. Agar in levels ke ooper break na mil sake, to yeh profit-taking ka sabab ban sakta hai, jo ke temporary pullback ya consolidation ka la sakta hai, jab tak pair apna upward trend dobara se jari nahi rakhta.

Halankeh USD/JPY pair is waqt mazboot bullish momentum ka lutf utha raha hai, resistance levels jo 148.76 aur 149.20 ke aas paas hain, inka paar karna bohot ahem hoga pair ke agle harkat ka taayun karne ke liye. Agar in levels ke ooper kamiyabi se break milta hai, to mazeed upside ke isharaat mil sakte hain, jabke agar break na ho sake, to pullback ya consolidation dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Traders ko zaroori hai ke wo technical indicators aur fundamental factors par qareebi nazar rakhein, kyun ke ye ahem kirdar ada karenge pair ke rukh ka taayun karne mein.

**USD/JPY H4 Time Frame Chart:**

USD/JPY ke H4 time frame chart par, Friday ke Asian session ke dauran, Japanese yen (JPY) ko kisi bhi aham buying interest ko attract karne mein mushkil hui. Is momentum ki kami ne USD/JPY pair ko apne upward trajectory ko barqarar rakhne ka moka diya, jo ke session ke akhri waqt mein apne August ke aghaz se sab se unchi level ke thoda neeche band hui. Pair haal hi mein ek musalsal upward climb kar raha hai, jise kaee factors fuel kar rahe hain, jin mein US dollar ka broader strength aur Japanese yen ki kamzori shamil hain.

Technical standpoint se dekha jaye to, pair ne neeche ke levels par mazboot support paaya hai, jahan buyers dips par buy karte hain. H4 chart dikhata hai ke USD/JPY ab bhi key moving averages ke ooper hai, jo bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) bhi upward trend mein hai magar abhi overbought territory mein nahi, jo yeh batata hai ke mazeed gains ke liye jagah ab bhi hai near term mein. Magar, ab yeh pair August ke highs ke qareeb aik ahem resistance zone ke kareeb pohanch raha hai. Traders is baat par qareebi nazar rakhenge ke kya USD/JPY in levels ke ooper break kar sakta hai aur apni chadhai ko jari rakh sakta hai, ya phir resistance ka samna karega, jo ke temporary consolidation ya pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Fundamental background ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, USD/JPY ka outlook mazeed upside ki taraf jhuka rahega, jab tak market conditions US dollar ke liye faidamand rehti hain.

**USD/JPY Pair ka Technical Analysis:**
1-hour chart par dekha jaye to, qeemat price channels ke zair-e-asar move kar rahi hai. Din ka aghaz ek red descending channel ke andar hua hai, jo ke sirf kal ke din ke harakat ka rukh dikhata hai. Jabke blue channel ka rukh upward hai, jo ke do trading dinon ki movement ka rukh hai.

Agar hum ab tak ke price behavior ko dekhein, to qeemat ko mazboot ascending blue channel se support mil raha hai, jese ke hum dekhtay hain ke chand candles mein qeemat blue channel line par rest kar rahi hai. Ab humare paas ek bearish candle hai jismein qeemat blue channel ko torne ki koshish karegi, is liye short term mein direction wazeh nahi hai.

Pair par trade karne ke liye, aap aaj ke din ka sab se uncha aur sab se neecha price tay kar sakte hain. Jab sab se neecha price break hota hai to aap selling mein enter karein. Aur agar sab se uncha price break hota hai to aap buying mein shamil ho sakte hain.

**Iqtisadi Lehaz Se:**
USD/JPY pair is waqt barh raha hai jabke Japan Statistics Agency ne inflation par ek kaafi mazboot report publish ki hai. Iqtisadi calendar ke nateejay ke mutabiq, Japan ka producer price index August mein -0.2% se September mein 0.0% tak barh gaya, jo ke -0.3% ki average estimate se zyada hai. Yeh 2.6% se barh kar 2.8% ho gaya hai year-on-year, aur 2.3% ki median estimate se zyada hai. Ek aur recent report ne dikhaya ke Japan ka consumer price index August mein 2.8% se barh kar September mein 3.0% ho gaya. Yeh is saal ki sab se kam 2.0% se barh gaya hai aur November ke baad sab se unchi level par hai.

Yeh numbers yeh zahir karte hain ke Japan mein inflation ziddi tor par barh gaya hai, jo ke is baat ka ishara hai ke Bank of Japan 31 October ke meeting mein hawkish rawayya apna sakta hai. Bank of Japan ne is saal ke aghaz mein investors ko surprise kar diya jab us ne interest rates ko 0.10% se barhaya aur negative rates se nikal gaya. Iske baad July ke meeting mein rates ko 0.25% se barhaya, jisne forex aur stock markets mein aik bohot bara ulat-phirat paida kar diya tha jab investors ne apne Japanese yen trades ko liquidate kiya tha.

USD/JPY pair apni downward movement jari rakhti hai jab se market khuli hai. Tawajjo 140.62 volume level par deni chahiye, jo ke current price se neeche hai. Agar price is level tak pohonchti hai aur 140.62 par accumulation stable rehta hai, aur mazeed girawat se rokta hai, toh ek corrective pullback dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Is surat mein, cost 140.62 se barh kar 143.43 tak ja sakti hai, jahan zyada trading volumes mojood hain, taake is area ko test kiya ja sake. Agar yeh test fail hota hai aur 143.43 resistance bana rehta hai, toh hum ek sharp reversal dekh sakte hain, jo price ko recent minimum se neeche dhakel sakta hai. Agle chand ghanton mein, humay outcomes ko ghore se dekhna hoga.
Ek technical analysis, jo forex neural network se support karta hai, yeh suggest karta hai ke upward movement 143.61 ke resistance level tak ho sakti hai. Buyers ke paas prices barhane ka momentum hai, jo ke primary scenario ban sakta hai.
USD/JPY pair Wednesday ko 143.80 level ke ird gird trade hui. Daily chart ke technical analysis se pata chala ke pair ek ascending channel pattern mein consolidate kar rahi thi, jo ke upward bias ko zahir karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se thoda neeche tha, jo ke ek bullish breakout ka potential dikhata hai. USD/JPY pair ko resistance face karna par sakta hai ascending channel ke upper boundary ke paas 146.80 par, followed by September 3rd ko pohonchay gaye five-week high of 147.21. Downside par, support levels 143.50 aur ascending channel ke lower boundary 143.00 ke paas located hain. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh pair 139.58 tak gir sakti hai, jo ke June 2023 ke baad ka lowest level hoga.
Traders ko NFP data par focus karna chahiye aur uske baad market mein faislay lene chahiye. Agar USD/JPY pair 145.48 ke immediate resistance level ko break karne mein kamyab hoti hai, jo ke 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke barabar hai, toh further gains ke liye rasta khul sakta hai. Agar yeh level cross hota hai, toh pair 151.50 ke aas paas throwback-turned-resistance ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo bullish traders ke liye ek target ho sakta hai upcoming sessions mein.

JPY pair nay apnay pehlay nuqsanat ko reverse kiya aur Monday ko 0.09% ka halkay se faida hasil kiya, jo ke US Dollar ki nayi taqat se mazid mazbooti mili. Filhal yeh pair 148.59 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jab ke din ke low 148.08 ko hit karne ke baad bounce back hua, jo ke bazaar mein ehtiyaat ka izhar karta hai. Lekin, yeh pair ab bhi week ke aakhir mein anay walay aham economic data ki wajah se exposed hai, jo ke mazeed market movement ko trigger kar sakta hai.USD ki taqat ka aik bara wajah US Durable Goods Orders ka strong performance tha, jo ke August mein 9.9% month-over-month barh gaye. Yeh bara izafa tha, khaaskar June ke 6.9% decline ke baad, aur market ki expectation se kafi zyada tha jo ke 4.0% ka izafa tha. Yeh May 2020 se sabse bara izafa tha, jis ne US economy ke slowdown ke hawalay se kuch tashveesh door ki aur US dollar ko temporary boost diya.Federal Reserve ke officials ne bhi overall market outlook mein dovish comments diye. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne zor diya ke interest rates ko dheere dheere kam karna chahiye, jo ke Fed ki ehtiyaat se approach ko zahir karta hai. Isi tarah, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne kaha ke mojooda monetary policy pehle hi kaafi restrictive hai aur Fed ka focus ab employment targets hasil karne par hai. In remarks ne US dollar ke faiday ko limited rakha, kyun ke market ne mazeed rate hikes ke hawalay se apni expectations adjust kar li.Japanese side par, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne market ko yeh yaqeen dilaya ke central bank ka koi immediate plan nahi hai ke long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ko sell karain, as part of apni interest rate adjustment strategy. Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar JGB purchases ko kam kiya gaya tou yeh BoJ ke overall balance sheet ka aik chhota hissa hoga. Sath hi, unho ne yeh bhi bataya ke thodi interest rate adjustments ho sakti hain agar economic conditions bank ki forecast ke mutabiq hui, lekin koi bara policy shift abhi expect nahi kiya ja raha. Aagey dekhte huay, yeh pair ab ek aham downtrend line ke qareeb hai jo ke 148.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh support break hota hai tou mazeed declines dekhnay ko mil sakte hain, aur agla target October 4th ka low 145.93 hoga. Agar yeh level break hota ha

buyers apni koshishen rok dete hain, toh yeh is baat ki taraf ishara ho sakta hai ke price growth ka peak poora ho chuka hai. Nai buy positions kholna meri portfolio ke liye risk ho sakta hai, magar 148.912 ke level se price decline par trade karna logical lagta hai. Agar lot size theek hai, toh averaging is trading approach ke andar ek munasib strategy ho sakti hai.
Akhir mein, jabke bullish momentum is waqt market par haavi hai, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye kyun ke asset critical resistance levels ke qareeb hai. Price action ko ghore se dekhna aur positions ko adjust karna zaroori hoga taake potential profits capture kiye ja sakein, khaaskar agar 149.63 ke qareeb koi reversal hota hai. Bollinger Bands aur Envelopes indicators dono yeh dikhate hain ke jabke upward momentum abhi bhi chalu hai, ek decline jald aa sakti hai, jo pullback ke liye position lene walon ke liye moqay paida kar sakta hai. Economic side par, USD/JPY pair mein izafa hua jab Japanese Statistics Agency ne inflation par ek kaafi strong report publish ki. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Japanese producer price index August mein -0.2% se September mein 0.0% tak barh gaya, jo ke -0.3% ki average estimate se zyada hai. Yeh 2.6% se 2.8% year-on-year barh gaya, jo ke 2.3% ki median estimate se zyada tha. Ek doosri recent report ne dikhaya ke Japan ka consumer price index August mein 2.8% se September mein 3.0% tak barh gaya. Yeh year-to-date low 2.0% se barh ke apne November pichle saal ke highest point par hai

USD/JPY pair jo is waqt 149.10 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, ek bearish trend ko reflect kar raha hai. Market dheerey dheerey move kar raha hai, lekin yeh aane wale waqt mein kisi baray movement ka ishara de sakta hai. Is baat ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai ke volatility barh sakti hai kuch key factors ki wajah se.

Sabse pehla factor market ka sentiment hai jo ahem economic events se pehle shift hota hai. U.S. Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke mukhtalif monetary policy stances ki wajah se traders donon central banks ke decisions aur statements par nazar rakhe hue hain. Federal Reserve ne inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barhaye hain, jabke Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai. U.S. aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rates ka ye farq USD/JPY ke movement ka ek barra driver raha hai recent mahino mein.

Lekin, Federal Reserve ke hawkish tone ke bawajood, U.S. economy mein kuch cooling inflation aur slowdown ke asar hain, jo rate hikes ke rukne ya reverse hone ka sabab ban sakte hain. Agar Federal Reserve apni policy mein dovish shift ka ishara deta hai, to dollar aur zyada weaken ho sakta hai yen ke muqable mein, jis se USD/JPY gir sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar U.S. economy mein mazid strength dikhayi di, jaise ke mazboot job growth ya inflation ke barqarar rehne ke asar, to pair dobara upar push kar sakta hai.

Japan ka role bhi future movements ka taayun karne mein ahem hai. Bank of Japan ne negative interest rates ko tabdeel karne mein kuch hichkichahat dikhayi hai, halaan ke Japan mein inflation barh raha hai. Lekin, ab market speculation barh raha hai ke BOJ ko akhirkar apni policy tighten karni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar inflation barh kar rehta hai ya yen zyada weaken hota hai, jo ke Japanese authorities ko intervention par majboor kar sakta hai. Agar BOJ ki taraf se koi policy change ka ishara milta hai, to USD/JPY mein sharp movement aasakta hai.

Geopolitical factors aur global markets mein risk sentiment bhi pair ke volatility mein kirdar ada kar sakte hain. Jab investors ko uncertainty ka samna hota hai, to wo yen jese safe-haven assets mein invest karte hain, aur kisi bhi sudden change se USD/JPY exchange rate mein tez fluctuations ho sakti hain



Akhir mein, USD/JPY market jo abhi tak relatively quiet raha hai, bearish trend aur mukhtalif economic, geopolitical, aur policy factors ke milne se lagta hai ke ek significant movement aane wale dinon mein dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Traders ko key economic indicators aur central bank statements ko gaur se dekhna chahiye upcoming shifts ke liye.

andaza hota hai ke pichlay kuch hafton mein dekhay gaye bullish momentum mein kami aane wali hai. MACD (12.26.9) indicator thoda optimistic lagta hai, kyun ke red signal line abhi bhi histogram ke neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bullish sentiment abhi tak barqarar hai. Do lambay white candles nazar aaye hain jo aam tor par taqat ki nishani hoti hain, lekin bulls ko 149.41 ke resistance ke samnay apni upward movement ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna hai. Is ke ilawa, H4 chart par ek recent bullish candle ka 50% retracement level wo required buying pressure paida nahi kar saka jo zaroori tha, jis wajah se traders ke liye clear entry aur exit points identify karna mushkil ho gaya hai.Maujooda market conditions ko dekhte hue, aisa lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair mein ek pullback aasakta hai jab yeh mazeed taqat ikattha kare ga taake ek aur upward move kar sake. Hourly chart par yeh pair positive signs dikha raha hai jab ke yeh bearish flag pattern se breakout karke 55-day moving average ke qareeb stable hai. Halankeh yeh upward movement hopeful hai, MACD ki slight positivity yeh batati hai ke mazeed gains aasakte hain pehle ke ek major trend change ho.Agar price SMA-55 se upar breakout kar leta hai, toh yeh bearish trend ki taraf shift ko zahir kar sakta hai, jo price ko aglay ahem support level tak le ja sakta hai, jo ke 145.95 hai. Horizontal line 147.23 par ek ahem support ka kaam karegi jo price ko ahem resistance levels ke upar qaim rakhne mein madad karegi. Traders pending buy orders 147.23 aur 145.95 par rakhne ka soch sakte hain, kyun ke agar 147.23 level ka break hota hai, toh short-selling opportunities mil sakti hain jo aglay support level 145.95 ko target karein gi.Is waqt USD/JPY ka qareebi resistance level 149.15 hai, aur agar price is se upar break karta hai, toh yeh mazeed mazbooti dikha sakta hai aur 1.3626 ke level tak ja sakta hai, aur us ke baad agla target 1.4228 ka resistance level hoga jo teesra resistance level hai. Doosri taraf, qareebi support level 147.22 par hai, aur main sell signals ko dekhunga 144.5hao

scenario buyers ke ghulami ko highlight karta hai aur is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke price mazeed barh sakti hai. Bollinger Bands indicator ke mutabiq, is baat ka zoroori imkaan hai ke price 149.250 ke upper limit tak pohnch sakti hai. Magar agar fundamental data asset par khaas asar daalta hai, toh price Bollinger Bands ke threshold se zyada bhi ho sakti hai. Aise mein, favorable selling prices par short positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai. Is strategy mein short positions close karne ka pehla benchmark lower Bollinger Band level hai, jo abhi 148.393 par hai. Isliye, jab price ki growth dheemi ho jaye, toh higher prices par selling kaafi munafa dayak sabit ho sakta hai. Agar price 148.850 se neeche girti hai, toh pehle se khuli sell positions aur zyada mazboot ho jaengi. Hum yeh samajhte hain ke resistance level 149.63 ka test mumkin hai, halaan ke iske baad price decline ho sakti hai.
Is waqt USD/JPY pair 148.90 ke ird gird trade ho rahi hai, jo ke 148.18 aur 149.63 ke trading range ke beech mein hai. Envelopes indicator ke mutabiq, price growth cycle abhi tak jari hai, aur dips ko buying opportunities ke tor par istimaal kiya ja sakta hai jab tak resistance level 149.63 ka test nahi hota. Agar yeh resistance aik ghante tak aur phir mazeed char ghante tak qaim rehta hai, toh price mein decline mumkin hai. Currency pair ne pehle hi advantageous sales levels ko touch kiya hai, jo ke market mein orders ke absorption se zahir hota ha

yeh pair ab bhi week ke aakhir mein anay walay aham economic data ki wajah se exposed hai, jo ke mazeed market movement ko trigger kar sakta hai.USD ki taqat ka aik bara wajah US Durable Goods Orders ka strong performance tha, jo ke August mein 9.9% month-over-month barh gaye. Yeh bara izafa tha, khaaskar June ke 6.9% decline ke baad, aur market ki expectation se kafi zyada tha jo ke 4.0% ka izafa tha. Yeh May 2020 se sabse bara izafa tha, jis ne US economy ke slowdown ke hawalay se kuch tashveesh door ki aur US dollar ko temporary boost diya.Federal Reserve ke officials ne bhi overall market outlook mein dovish comments diye. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne zor diya ke interest rates ko dheere dheere kam karna chahiye, jo ke Fed ki ehtiyaat se approach ko zahir karta hai. Isi tarah, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne kaha ke mojooda monetary policy pehle hi kaafi restrictive hai aur Fed ka focus ab employment targets hasil karne par hai. In remarks ne US dollar ke faiday ko limited rakha, kyun ke market ne mazeed rate hikes ke hawalay se apni expectations adjust kar li.Japanese side par, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne market ko yeh yaqeen dilaya ke central bank ka koi immediate plan nahi hai ke long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ko sell karain, as part of apni interest rate adjustment strategy. Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar JGB purchases ko kam kiya gaya tou yeh BoJ ke overall balance sheet ka aik chhota hissa hoga. Sath hi, unho ne yeh bhi bataya ke thodi interest rate adjustments ho sakti hain agar economic conditions bank ki forecast ke mutabiq hui, lekin koi bara policy shift abhi expect nahi kiya ja raha. Aagey dekhte huay, yeh pair ab ek aham downtrend line ke qareeb hai jo ke 148.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh support break hota hai tou mazeed declines dekhnay ko mil sakte hain, aur agla target October 4th ka low 145.93 hoga. Agar yeh level break hota hai, tou 145.00 ka mark mazeed selling pressure ko trigger kar

Asian session mein tight range mein trade kiya, jo ke kal ke closing levels ke qareeb tha. Monday ko yen dollar ke muqable mein weak hua aur is movement ka sabab Federal Reserve ke aanay walay meeting ke hawalay se expectations hain jo Wednesday ko hone wala hai. Pair ne pichlay hafte ke aakhri dino mein girawat ke baad ek correction phase mein dakhil hone ki koshish ki. Main nahi samajhta ke yeh growth continue karegi kyun ke yen ki demand abhi bhi kaafi zyada hai. Aaj pair US markets ke khulne ka intezar karegi aur important data bhi US se aane wala hai jo ke currency markets mein significant volatility ko janam de sakta hai. Pehle aaday din mein kisi barae movement ka imkaan nahi lagta aur correction upper side tak ja sakta hai, magar overall dekha jaye to downward trend wapas aane ki umeed hai. Reversal point 141.35 par expect kiya ja raha hai aur main is level ke niche sell karunga, jahan targets 139.85 aur 139.35 par set hain. Dusra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke pair rise kare, 141.35 ka mark break kare aur merge kare, phir raste khul jayenge 141.65 aur 141.85 levels tak. BOJ ki policy rate aur press conference bhi sellers ke liye madadgar sabit hui hai, lekin abhi bhi buyers ka pressure market par hai. Is liye bullish journey wapas shuru hosakti hai. Hamein news strategy ka istamal karna chahiye aur market ko technical tor par bhi analyze karna chahiye kyun ke yeh tareeqa traders ko data ko gehraai se samajhne mein madad deta hai aur market dynamics mein tabdeeliyan anticipate karne ka moka deta hai. Global view rakhnay walay traders samajhte hain ke US monetary stance mein tabdeeliyon ka asar international economies, commodities, aur equities par kis tarah hota hai, jo ke diverse investment strategies ke liye mouqe paida karta hai. Main expect karta hoon ke USD/JPY market resistance zone 142.75 ko cross karega. FOMC member Harker ka speech, jo higher interest rates ko signal karta hai, emerging markets ke liye challenges khara kar sakta hai jo ke foreign capital inflows par depend karti hain. Jab capital US mein higher-yielding assets ki taraf flow karta hai during tighter monetary policy periods, to emerging markets par pressure parhta hai. Agar dovish stance adopt kiya gaya to yeh emerging markets par pressure ko kam karega aur global risk appetite ko boost karega. FOMC member Harker ka speech closely watched hoga kisi bhi hint ke liye jo Fed ke approach ke hawalay se ho, khaaskar balance sh

Pehli baat yeh hai ke market ka jazba aksar aham iqtisadi events ke intezar mein badalta rehta hai. U.S. Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke mukhtalif monetary policy stance ke saath, traders donon central banks ke faislon aur bayanaat par qareebi nazar rakhe hue hain. Federal Reserve ne apna hawkish (sakht) rawayya barqarar rakha hai, inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barhaye gaye hain, jabke Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko jari rakhe hue hai. Amreeki aur Japani faiz daroon ke farq ne chand maheenon mein USD/JPY ko chalanay wali ek aham quwwat ke tor par kaam kiya hai.
Magar, Federal Reserve ke hawkish rawayye ke bawajood, kuch aise asar hain jo inflation mein kami aur U.S. economy ke slow hone ki nishandahi karte hain, jo ke faiz daroon ke rukne ya ulatne ka sabab ban sakte hain. Agar Federal Reserve ek dovish (narm) rawayya ikhtiyar karta hai, to dollar mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai aur yen ke muqable mein USD/JPY gir sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar U.S. economy ki mazbooti ke asaar milte hain, jese ke mazboot job growth ya inflation mein izafa, to pair ek aur upward push dekh sakta hai.

Japan ka kirdar bhi future movements ke liye nihayat aham hai. Bank of Japan ne abhi tak manfi faiz daroon par apna rawayya tabdeel karne se inkar kiya hai, bawajood is ke ke mulk mein inflation barh raha hai. Magar, market mein afwahain barh rahi hain ke BOJ ko aakhir kaar tightening ki taraf jana par sakta hai, khas tor par agar inflation barh ta raha ya yen had se zyada kamzor hua, jo ke Japani hukoomat ki mudakhlat ka sabab ban sakta hai. BOJ ke kisi bhi policy tabdeeli ka ishara USD/JPY mein tez harkat paida kar sakta hai.

Geopolitical factors aur global markets mein risk sentiment bhi pair mein volatility ko barha sakte hain. Investors aksar uncertainty ke doran safe-haven assets