USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

maintain karte hue EMA 50 se bounce hui hai. Filhal pair critical support level 145.35 ko target kar rahi hai, jo pehle se test ho chuka hai, aur yeh aur zyada decline ka ishara karta hai, jahan targets 143.99 aur 142.14 ke aas paas hain. Recommendation yeh hai ke selling focus ke sath trade kiya jaye, aur stop-loss ko resistance level 146.59 ke upar set kiya jaye.USD/JPY ne correction phase mein entry ki hai jab price ne kal ke lows ko hit kiya. Market significant news ka intizar kar raha hai, khaaskar Fed ki taraf se minutes ka release aur labor market data ka revision. Agar yeh data significant tariqe se revise hota hai, toh is ka zyada impact ho sakta hai, aur speculation ka sabab ban sakta hai ke September mein Fed rate cut 50 points tak ho sakti hai, jo dollar ki weakness ka sabab banega. Jumay ko, USD/JPY ka daily chart bullish tha. Meri forecast jumay ke liye accurate thi. Maine uptrend ka tajziya kiya tha, kyun ke Thursday ko price rise ho rahi thi aur 141.874 ke level ke upar close hui thi. Jumay ke liye, uptrend ka priority tha aur price poora din rising karti rahi, 143.747 ke resistance ko break kiya aur is level ke upar close hui. Monday ke liye, meri priority uptrend rahegi 145.265 ke resistance tak. Kyun ke price in levels ke upar close hui hai, USD/JPY ne kal ke lows ko hit karne ke baad correction phase mein entry ki hai. Market Fed ki significant news ka intezar kar raha hai, khaaskar minutes ka release aur labor market data ka revision. Yeh revision zyada impact rakh sakti hai, khaaskar agar data mein significant changes aaye. Yeh speculation ko janam de sakti hai ke September mein Fed 50-point rate cut kar sakta hai, jo dollar ko weaken karne ka sabab ban sakta hai.
hain. Maujooda halaat ke madde nazar, main expect karta hoon ke maximum bullish correction moving average resistance zone 143.21 ke qareeb ho sakti hai. Main is level se sell karne ke mauqe talash karunga, kyunki mazeed girawat ka imkaan hai. Higher time frames par volatility mein kisi bhi slowdown ya sideways movement ka na hona yeh dikhata hai ke local ya global trend mein koi foran reversal nazar nahi aa raha. Maujooda market dynamics Japan ke central bank ke fundamentals ko reflect karti hain, aur yen ke taqatwar hone ka silsila abhi jaari rahega. Chalo, USD/JPY ka daily chart dekhte hain: wave structure abhi bhi downward hai, aur MACD indicator apni signal line ke neeche lower sales zone mein hai. Jumay ke din, USD/JPY mein selling ka rujhan tha, aur bulls 141.89 level ko paar karne mein kamyab nahi ho sake. Hourly technical analysis yeh signal deta hai ke sellers ka pressure jaari hai. Mera khayal hai ke price ki girawat abhi bhi barqarar rahegi, aur bears ka target 136.99 hai. Quotes 155.23 ke high se neeche ja rahe hain, aur chart par yeh dikh raha hai ke chhoti rebounds ke bawajood downtrend abhi tak jaari hai. Kaafi arsay se traders 140.27 aur 143.81 ke darmiyan phansay hue hain.

USD/JPY ne 144.53 ke key support level ko break kiya, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke downtrend jaari reh sakta hai. Is breakout ke baad, pair 99 points gir gaya lekin phir ek correction ki koshish ki, jisme buyers ne price ko wapas 144.53 ke resistance level tak push kiya. Iss point par sell positions open karna behthreen move ho sakta hai, aur 140-141 range ki taraf mazeed girawat ka target set kiya ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair 144.53 resistance level se rebound karta hai, toh recovery jaari reh sakti hai, aur agla target 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart mein ek ascending channel dikhai de raha hai jo flag pattern se milta julta hai, jo is baat ka ishara karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par, pair ek descending channel mein move kar raha hai aur abhi uski lower boundary se bounce hua hai. Agar price 144.49 se break hoti hai, toh 145.69 ka target rakhte hue buying strategy viable ho sakti hai. Friday ko Japanese Yen (JPY) ne US Dollar (USD) ke against 14-mahinon ka low touch kiya, jo 140.41 tha. Ye girawat zyada market trend ka hissa hai jahan JPY kamzor ho raha hai, zyada ter Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke monetary policy changes ki wajah se. BoJ ne recently apni policy ko hawkish banate hue interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya, jisse Yen carry trade ka unwinding hua. Yen ko support "Yenterventions" ke zariye bhi mila, jo multi-decade lows se recover karte hue 12.5% barh gaya USD ke against. Abhi ka market sentiment Yen ke hawale se monetary policy changes, market interventions, aur global economic factors ka aik pechida mix darshata hai. Yen ka Mustaqbil Yen ka historic lows se recovery aur recent USD ke against movements currency markets ki fluid nature aur policymakers ke liye challenges ko highlight karti hain. BoJ ki monetary policy ka mustaqbil abhi bhi unsure hai, Jahan officials ne mazed rate hikes ka ishara diya hai. Lekin isko cautious approach kiya ja raha hai, heightened market volatility ki wajah se. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne zor diya ke BoJ market conditions ko closely monitor karega, lekin monetary policy ke hawale se koi bhi faislay BoJ ke ikhtiyar mein hi rahenge. Ye careful approach yeh darshata hai ke economic growth ko stimulate

Is haftay ke aghaz mein yen ne dollar ke muqable mein taqat hasil ki, jab ke pichle haftay usne kafi tez girawat dekhi thi. Naye Japanese wazir-e-azam Shigeru Ishiba ke dovish bayaan ne bazaar ko hairan kar diya. Iske ilawa, pichle mahine mein US job market mein kafi izafa dekha gaya, jiski wajah se yen kamzor hua. Yeh asar is baat se tha ke abhi tak Fed aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke interest rates mein kafi farq hai. Is liye, market dono mulkon ki macroeconomic developments par nazar rakhe gi taake future interest rates ke hawalay se achi rahnumai mil sake. Technical tor par, USD/JPY ke mazeed barhne ke imkanaat hain aur yeh weekly period mein supply area tak jaa sakta hai, jab ke yeh nayi demand area se bounce hua hai. Magar, filhal iske izafa ko SBR area (149.224 price) roke hue hai. Is liye, pichle haftay ke izafa ke baad yeh dynamic support SMA5 tak correct ho sakta hai, jo ke 149.798 ke aas paas hai. Khaas tor par agar yeh daily time frame mein dynamic support se neeche slip karta hai, toh RBS area mein 146.625 ke aas paas pohanch sakta hai. Magar agar isay dynamic support se madad milti hai, toh yeh apne upward trend ko jaari rakh sakta hai aur pehle SMA200 ke dynamic resistance ko test karega. Intraday details ke mutabiq, yeh flip area ke qareeb 147.900 par pressure mein hai, jab ke isay 149.379 par triangle pattern ke baseline se neeche reject kar diya gaya hai. Agar yeh breakthrough karta hai, toh girawat 146.588 se 145.935 tak barh sakti hai. Khaas tor par agar yeh triangle pattern ki projection line ko tor deta hai, toh yeh girawat RBS area ke 147.332 qeemat ke aas paas head and shoulders pattern bana sakti hai. Is liye, yeh pressure wapas flip area ke upar triangle pattern ke projection line ke qareeb 147.332 par reflect ho sakta hai taake right shoulder bane aur girawat se pehle uske baseline tak pohochay. Magar agar projection line par pressure reject ho jata hai, toh uptrend jaari rehne ke imkanaat hain jo ke ek equidistant channel pattern banayega. Agar yeh triangle pattern ke baseline ko tor leta hai, toh is mein mazeed izafa hone ka imkaan hai aur daily time frame mein SMA200 ke dynamic resistance tak pohanch sakta hai, jo ke 151.089 ke price range ke aas paas hai, aur yeh trend channel pattern ke upper line ke qareeb hoga.

hain, to wo policy mein tabdeeliyan karne ke liye tayaar hain, lekin abhi ke liye wo apne maujooda rukh par qayam hain. Japanese ma'ashiyat ne kuch behtari ke asar dikhaye hain, jese ke Tankan ka bada manufacturing index teesre ruba mein 13 par barqarar raha. Yeh is baat ka izhar karta hai ke bade manufacturers ke liye operational halaat waqai mein mustahkam hain, jo market ki umeedon ke mutabiq hai. Iske ilawa, Japan ka unemployment rate August mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jo July mein 2.7% tha, aur yeh market ki peshgoiyan 2.6% se behtar raha. Yen ki kamzori ka aik aur sabab incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ke dovish bayanat bhi hain. Ishiba ne kaha ke ma'ashi nikaas ko support karne ke liye raahnuma monetary policy ki zarurat hai, aur unhone low borrowing costs ki bhi baat ki. Unke bayanat BoJ ke rukh ke sath milte hain aur yen par downward pressure ko barhate hain. Dainik chart par Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ka rate Tuesday ko 144.10 ke ird gird trade hua. Technical analysis se yeh pata chala ke yeh aik ascending channel pattern mein wapas aa gaya hai, jo dikhata hai ke uptrend ab bhi mazboot hai. 14-day relative strength index, jo 50 ke level ke thoda neeche hai, yeh bhi izhar karta hai ke bullish breakout ka potential hai, jo uptrend ke jaari rehne ki tasdeeq karta hai. Resistance levels ki baat karain to USD/JPY pair ko 146.50 par ascending channel ke upper boundary ke nazdeek resistance ka samna karna par sakta hai, jo 5-week high 147.21 tak bhi pahuncha sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, channel ki lower limit 142.80 hai. Is level ke neeche girne se mazeed girawat ho sakti hai, jahan 139.58 ka area support ka potential rakhta hai, jo June 2023 ke baad se sabse neecha level hai. Aakhir mein, Japanese yen ki kami ka asal sabab BoJ ki raahnuma monetary policy, mukhtalif ma'ashi data, aur incoming Prime Minister ke dovish bayanat hain. USD/JPY pair ka technical analysis yeh dikhata hai ke uptrend jaari rahega, jahan resistance aur

aik tafseeli image banayi hai, jo dikhati hai ke kaise H4 timeframe mein bullish movement ne aik bullish trend pattern banaya hai, jis mein higher highs aur lower lows dekhnay ko milay. Yeh condition is baat ki potential rakhti hai ke ek aur zyada taqatwar bullish movement trigger ho sakti hai. Ab tak, bullish movement ne MA 50 aur MA 100 ko tor dia hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke is haftay yeh MA 200 ko bhi tor dega, jo ke yeh tasdeeq karega ke USD-JPY ka trend bearish se bullish mein tabdeel ho gaya hai. Yeh buy option par focus karna dilchasp hoga kyun ke meri prediction hai ke USD-JPY H4 timeframe mein MA 200 ko break kar le ga, jo trend reversal ki tasdeeq karega bearish se bullish ki taraf. USD-JPY mein focus karna chahiye bullish movements ki dominance par jo ke H4 timeframe mein bullish trend pattern bana rahi hain. Mere khayal mein yeh conditions direction ke liye aik acha indication hain. Kyunkay bullish trend pattern significant tor par bana hai aur MA 50 aur MA 100 ke against aik break ka moment aaya hai, is moment ki potential hai ke yeh ek aur zyada significant bullish movement trigger karega. Weekly timescale par jo candle pattern bana hai, us ke madde nazar, yeh kafi zyada imkaan hai ke USD-JPY apni bullish trend is haftay bhi jaari rakhe. Agar yeh trend continue karta hai, to hum trading ke mouqe se faida utha sakte hain, is liye humein hamesha alert rehna chahiye aur kisi bhi additional price fluctuation ka intezar karna chahiye. Yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke humain hamesha doosray indicators aur important levels se tasdeeq leni chahiye jo humari decisions mein madad kar sakein. Is liye, chaliye hum USD-JPY ki progress par nazar rakhein aur moqay ke mutabiq action lenay ke liye tayar rahain USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi. Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua.
Iss waqt, yeh nazar aa raha hai ke bullish options ka mauqa abhi bhi mojood hai kyun ke jab se September ke shuru

aik bullish trend pattern banaya hai, jis mein higher highs aur lower lows dekhnay ko milay. Yeh condition is baat ki potential rakhti hai ke ek aur zyada taqatwar bullish movement trigger ho sakti hai. Ab tak, bullish movement ne MA 50 aur MA 100 ko tor dia hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke is haftay yeh MA 200 ko bhi tor dega, jo ke yeh tasdeeq karega ke USD-JPY ka trend bearish se bullish mein tabdeel ho gaya hai. Yeh buy option par focus karna dilchasp hoga kyun ke meri prediction hai ke USD-JPY H4 timeframe mein MA 200 ko break kar le ga, jo trend reversal ki tasdeeq karega bearish se bullish ki taraf. USD-JPY mein focus karna chahiye bullish movements ki dominance par jo ke H4 timeframe mein bullish trend pattern bana rahi hain. Mere khayal mein yeh conditions direction ke liye aik acha indication hain. Kyunkay bullish trend pattern significant tor par bana hai aur MA 50 aur MA 100 ke against aik break ka moment aaya hai, is moment ki potential hai ke yeh ek aur zyada significant bullish movement trigger karega. Weekly timescale par jo candle pattern bana hai, us ke madde nazar, yeh kafi zyada imkaan hai ke USD-JPY apni bullish trend is haftay bhi jaari rakhe. Agar yeh trend continue karta hai, to hum trading ke mouqe se faida utha sakte hain, is liye humein hamesha alert rehna chahiye aur kisi bhi additional price fluctuation ka intezar karna chahiye. Yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke humain hamesha doosray indicators aur important levels se tasdeeq leni chahiye jo humari decisions mein madad kar sakein. Is liye, chaliye hum USD-JPY ki progress par nazar rakhein aur moqay ke mutabiq action lenay ke liye tayar rahain USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi. Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua.

hai. Iss waqt, yeh pair 146.149 par trade ho raha hai. Yeh behtar waqt ho sakta hai ke abhi ke market rate par sell kar diya jaye. Aaj ke khulnay se ab tak ke faaslay se yeh maloom hota hai ke khareedari ka moqa kareeb hai, jo ke bechne walon ke liye mauzoon halaat paida kar raha hai. Agar hum market mein 146.149 par dakhil hotay hain, to stop loss 146.174 ke aas paas hona chahiye. Is trade ke liye ideal munafa ka target mazboot support level ke kareeb, 145.192 par hai. Is level tak pohanchne ke baad, short positions band karna samajhdaari hogi, kyun ke uske baad ooper ki taraf ek corrective rebound aasakta hai. Yeh rebound ascending channel ki neechli hadd par takra sakta hai, jis ke baad qeemat apni correction ko jaari rakhte hue pehli correction wave ke upper point ke kareeb zone, yani 147.322 par pohanch sakti hai. Hum yahaan se aik downward rebound ki tawakku kar sakte hain, lekin is rebound ki taqat abhi bhi gair yakeeni hai. 145.91 ke price test ke waqt MACD indicator zero mark se neeche ki taraf move kar raha tha, jis ke natijay mein scenario No. 1 sell ke liye execute hua. Is ka nateeja ye hua ke pair mein 50 se zyada pips ki girawat hui. Jaise ke tawakku thi, Federal Reserve ki minutes ki release ke baad dollar par dabao barha, jis ne pair ko weekly low tak pohanchne mein madad ki. Aaj ke Asian trading session mein, yen thoda sa kamzor hua kamzor manufacturing activity ki khabron ke baad, jo ke Japan ke services sector ki nisbat qawi growth se offset hui. Yeh bhi composite PMI mein thori si izafa ka sabab bana. USD ki wazeh kamzori USD/JPY ko neeche ki taraf dhakelti rahegi, lekin ab sab kuch Jerome Powell ke kal ke speech par munhasir hai, is liye mujooda level par short positions mein ehtiyaat kijiye. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein Scenario No. 1 ke hawalay se buy signals ko dekhoonga. Aaj, mein USD/JPY ko khareedne ka irada rakhta hoon jab yeh green line ke chart par 145.56 ke aas paas entry point par pohanche ga, aur maqsad 146.13 par pohanchna hai, jo ke chart par mazboot green line se dikha gaya hai. 146.13 ke ilaaqe mein, mein long positions se nikal jaonga aur mukhalif rukh mein short positions kholonga, aur level se mukhalif rukh mein 30-35 pips ki movement ki tawakku karunga. Hum aaj ke din mein pair ke ooper ki taraf ek upward correction ka hissa hone ki umeed karte hain. Aham

faida hasil kiya, jo ke US Dollar ki nayi taqat se mazid mazbooti mili. Filhal yeh pair 148.59 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jab ke din ke low 148.08 ko hit karne ke baad bounce back hua, jo ke bazaar mein ehtiyaat ka izhar karta hai. Lekin, yeh pair ab bhi week ke aakhir mein anay walay aham economic data ki wajah se exposed hai, jo ke mazeed market movement ko trigger kar sakta hai.USD ki taqat ka aik bara wajah US Durable Goods Orders ka strong performance tha, jo ke August mein 9.9% month-over-month barh gaye. Yeh bara izafa tha, khaaskar June ke 6.9% decline ke baad, aur market ki expectation se kafi zyada tha jo ke 4.0% ka izafa tha. Yeh May 2020 se sabse bara izafa tha, jis ne US economy ke slowdown ke hawalay se kuch tashveesh door ki aur US dollar ko temporary boost diya.Federal Reserve ke officials ne bhi overall market outlook mein dovish comments diye. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne zor diya ke interest rates ko dheere dheere kam karna chahiye, jo ke Fed ki ehtiyaat se approach ko zahir karta hai. Isi tarah, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne kaha ke mojooda monetary policy pehle hi kaafi restrictive hai aur Fed ka focus ab employment targets hasil karne par hai. In remarks ne US dollar ke faiday ko limited rakha, kyun ke market ne mazeed rate hikes ke hawalay se apni expectations adjust kar li.Japanese side par, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne market ko yeh yaqeen dilaya ke central bank ka koi immediate plan nahi hai ke long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ko sell karain, as part of apni interest rate adjustment strategy. Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar JGB purchases ko kam kiya gaya tou yeh BoJ ke overall balance sheet ka aik chhota hissa hoga. Sath hi, unho ne yeh bhi bataya ke thodi interest rate adjustments ho sakti hain agar economic conditions bank ki forecast ke mutabiq hui, lekin koi bara policy shift abhi expect nahi kiya ja raha. Aagey dekhte huay, yeh pair ab ek aham downtrend line ke qareeb hai jo ke 148.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh support break hota hai tou mazeed declines dekhnay ko mil sakte hain, aur agla target October 4th ka low 145.93 hoga. Agar yeh level break hota hai, tou 145.00 ka mark mazeed selling pressure ko trigger kar sakta hai. Haal hi mein retracement ke bawajood, broader uptrend USD/JPY ke liye ab bhi intact hai. Buyers ne is pair ko 149.00 se ooper push kiya, lekin unko 150.00 ke psychological

Yeh condition is baat ki potential rakhti hai ke ek aur zyada taqatwar bullish movement trigger ho sakti hai. Ab tak, bullish movement ne MA 50 aur MA 100 ko tor dia hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke is haftay yeh MA 200 ko bhi tor dega, jo ke yeh tasdeeq karega ke USD-JPY ka trend bearish se bullish mein tabdeel ho gaya hai. Yeh buy option par focus karna dilchasp hoga kyun ke meri prediction hai ke USD-JPY H4 timeframe mein MA 200 ko break kar le ga, jo trend reversal ki tasdeeq karega bearish se bullish ki taraf. USD-JPY mein focus karna chahiye bullish movements ki dominance par jo ke H4 timeframe mein bullish trend pattern bana rahi hain. Mere khayal mein yeh conditions direction ke liye aik acha indication hain. Kyunkay bullish trend pattern significant tor par bana hai aur MA 50 aur MA 100 ke against aik break ka moment aaya hai, is moment ki potential hai ke yeh ek aur zyada significant bullish movement trigger karega. Weekly timescale par jo candle pattern bana hai, us ke madde nazar, yeh kafi zyada imkaan hai ke USD-JPY apni bullish trend is haftay bhi jaari rakhe. Agar yeh trend continue karta hai, to hum trading ke mouqe se faida utha sakte hain, is liye humein hamesha alert rehna chahiye aur kisi bhi additional price fluctuation ka intezar karna chahiye. Yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke humain hamesha doosray indicators aur important levels se tasdeeq leni chahiye jo humari decisions mein madad kar sakein. Is liye, chaliye hum USD-JPY ki progress par nazar rakhein aur moqay ke mutabiq action lenay ke liye tayar rahain USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi. Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua. Iss waqt, yeh nazar aa raha hai ke bullish options ka mauqa abhi bhi mojood

jaari reh sakta hai. Is breakout ke baad, pair 99 points gir gaya lekin phir ek correction ki koshish ki, jisme buyers ne price ko wapas 144.53 ke resistance level tak push kiya. Iss point par sell positions open karna behthreen move ho sakta hai, aur 140-141 range ki taraf mazeed girawat ka target set kiya ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair 144.53 resistance level se rebound karta hai, toh recovery jaari reh sakti hai, aur agla target 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart mein ek ascending channel dikhai de raha hai jo flag pattern se milta julta hai, jo is baat ka ishara karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par, pair ek descending channel mein move kar raha hai aur abhi uski lower boundary se bounce hua hai. Agar price 144.49 se break hoti hai, toh 145.69 ka target rakhte hue buying strategy viable ho sakti hai. Friday ko Japanese Yen (JPY) ne US Dollar (USD) ke against 14-mahinon ka low touch kiya, jo 140.41 tha. Ye girawat zyada market trend ka hissa hai jahan JPY kamzor ho raha hai, zyada ter Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke monetary policy changes ki wajah se. BoJ ne recently apni policy ko hawkish banate hue interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya, jisse Yen carry trade ka unwinding hua. Yen ko support "Yenterventions" ke zariye bhi mila, jo multi-decade lows se recover karte hue 12.5% barh gaya USD ke against. Abhi ka market sentiment Yen ke hawale se monetary policy changes, market interventions, aur global economic factors ka aik pechida mix darshata hai. Yen ka Mustaqbil Yen ka historic lows se recovery aur recent USD ke against movements currency markets ki fluid nature aur policymakers ke liye challenges ko highlight karti hain. BoJ ki monetary policy ka mustaqbil abhi bhi unsure hai, Jahan officials ne mazed rate hikes ka ishara diya hai. Lekin isko cautious approach kiya ja raha hai, heightened market volatility ki wajah se. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne zor diya ke BoJ market conditions ko closely monitor karega, lekin

USD/GPY

Pichlay haftay ke akhir mein UsdJpy pair ki price movement mein kafi zyada izafa dekha gaya tha, jo ke apni bulandi ko 145.51 tak pohanch gayi. Magar aglay hafta jab market trading period shuru hua to price neeche aayi aur dheere dheere 142.10 ki taraf rukh kar gayi. Pichlay haftay ke douran jo lagataar price girti rahi, usay wapas lana mushkil tha. Lekin kal raat se price bullish ho gayi hai aur haftay ke shuru mein jo open price tha, usay cross kar gayi, kyun ke market mein mazeed izafa ka imkan hai.

Asal mein, market movement volatility ke lehaz se kafi dilchasp hoti hai, jab ke dusri pairs jo Yen ke saath related hain, utni volatility nahi dikhatay. Fundamentals abhi bhi yeh indicate karte hain ke price bullish rahegi aur pichlay mahine ki buland tareen price tak phir se pohanch sakti hai. Short-term bearish trend, jo ke price ki girawat ke wajah se tha, ab bullish ho gaya hai aur 144.85 ke resistance area ko break karne ki koshish kar raha hai.

Agar price support level 143.50 ke neeche tikti hai, to aglay trade mein buyers shayad price ko 145.93 tak le kar ja sakain, ya resistance area-2 ko break kar sakain. Lekin dhyaan dene ki zarurat hai jab price neeche ki taraf correction karti hai aur kal ka lowest position cross karti hai. Market ke normal bullish trends mein bhi ek phase aata hai jisme correction hoti hai, takay price naye momentum ke saath upper trend ko continue kar sake.



Jo current market rally chal rahi hai aur price ko bearish trend se uthaya hai, yeh sellers ke liye ek warning hai ke wo UsdJpy pair mein agla trading position dhang se samajh kar banayein. Buy position jaldi open karne se floating loss ka shikar na ho jayein. Filhal lagta hai ke market ke conditions mazeed oopar ja sakte hain. Agla trading pattern kal, yani Wednesday se dekhna zaroori hoga, kyun ke us waqt volatility barhti hai aur ek weekly trend form hota hai.

Japanese yen (JPY) ka girawat silsilewaar dosray din bhi jari raha, jis ki waja BoJ (Bank of Japan) ka apni accommodative monetary policy ko barqarar rakhna tha aur economic data mix tha. September monetary policy meeting ki summary ke mutabiq abhi filhal interest rate mein izafa ka koi plan nahi hai, aur BoJ ka focus stability aur ehtiyaat par hai. Jab ke BoJ ne kaha ke economic conditions mein significant improvement ki surat mein policy adjust ki ja sakti hai, magar filhal current stance barqarar hai.

Japanese economy ne resilience dikhayi hai, jahan Tankan large-scale manufacturing index teesray quarter mein stable raha aur unemployment rate 2.7% se gir ke 2.5% par aa gaya, jo ke market forecasts se acha tha. Naye Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ke dovish comments ne bhi yen ko kamzor kiya. Unho ne kaha ke fragile economic recovery ko support karne ke liye accommodative monetary policy zaroori hai, aur borrowing costs ko neeche rakhnay par zor diya.

bullish trend pattern banaya hai, jis mein higher highs aur lower lows dekhnay ko milay. Yeh condition is baat ki potential rakhti hai ke ek aur zyada taqatwar bullish movement trigger ho sakti hai. Ab tak, bullish movement ne MA 50 aur MA 100 ko tor dia hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke is haftay yeh MA 200 ko bhi tor dega, jo ke yeh tasdeeq karega ke USD-JPY ka trend bearish se bullish mein tabdeel ho gaya hai. Yeh buy option par focus karna dilchasp hoga kyun ke meri prediction hai ke USD-JPY H4 timeframe mein MA 200 ko break kar le ga, jo trend reversal ki tasdeeq karega bearish se bullish ki taraf. USD-JPY mein focus karna chahiye bullish movements ki dominance par jo ke H4 timeframe mein bullish trend pattern bana rahi hain. Mere khayal mein yeh conditions direction ke liye aik acha indication hain. Kyunkay bullish trend pattern significant tor par bana hai aur MA 50 aur MA 100 ke against aik break ka moment aaya hai, is moment ki potential hai ke yeh ek aur zyada significant bullish movement trigger karega. Weekly timescale par jo candle pattern bana hai, us ke madde nazar, yeh kafi zyada imkaan hai ke USD-JPY apni bullish trend is haftay bhi jaari rakhe. Agar yeh trend continue karta hai, to hum trading ke mouqe se faida utha sakte hain, is liye humein hamesha alert rehna chahiye aur kisi bhi additional price fluctuation ka intezar karna chahiye. Yeh yaad rakhna chahiye ke humain hamesha doosray indicators aur important levels se tasdeeq leni chahiye jo humari decisions mein madad kar sakein. Is liye, chaliye hum USD-JPY ki progress par nazar rakhein aur moqay ke mutabiq action lenay ke liye tayar rahain USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi. Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua. Iss waqt, yeh nazar aa raha hai ke bullish options ka mauqa abhi bhi mojood hai kyun ke jab se September ke shuru mein tradingClick image for largClick image for larger version
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momentum dikhaya, jo kay kai liquidity grabs aur displaced liquidity (DLiq) zones ke formation ki wajah se trigger hua. Price action ne May aur phir June mein top liquidity zones ko touch karne ke baad neeche ki taraf move kiya, aur is dauran fair value gaps (FVG) ka samna kiya jo potential reversals ya pullbacks ka ishara de rahe thay. Chart mein kayi liquidity pools ko highlight kiya gaya hai, jo top aur bottom dono taraf se sweep kiye gaye, jo yeh confirm karta hai ke market in imbalances ko fill karna chahta hai. Jab price 140.000 level ke qareeb pohanchi, toh buyers ne August ke aakhri dino mein bane displaced liquidity area ko defend kiya. Yeh level, jo ek strong liquidity grab ke sath coincides karta hai, ne thodi recovery di, jo ke pair ko 144.000 region tak wapas le gaya. Lekin recent rise ko ab bhi pehle ke liquidity areas aur FVGs ke qareeb 148.000 par resistance ka samna hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke agar price in zones ko convincingly breach nahi kar paya, toh ek potential reversal ho sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, displaced liquidity zone jo ke 140.000 ke qareeb hai, ek significant support area serve karta hai. Agar price apni current upward momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahta hai, toh yeh level dobara test ho sakta hai, aur agar yeh break ho gaya, toh further downside risks badh sakte hain. Agla major support 136.000-137.000 range ke qareeb hai, jahan is saal ke shuru mein pehli baar liquidity sweep hui thi. Aage chal kar, agar USD/JPY 148.000 resistance ko breach karne mein kaamyab ho jata hai aur us FVG ko fill kar leta hai jo us level ke qareeb hai, toh 150.000 aur us se upar ka move zyada likely ho jata hai. Lekin, bias ab bhi cautious hai, aur market participants liquidity zones aur FVGs ko closely dekh rahe hain. Agar price resistance breach karne mein nakam rehta hai, toh renewed selling pressure aa sakta hai, agar agar global risk sentiment negative ho gaya. Overall structure short term mein consolidation ya mild bullish corrections suggest karta hai, lekin longer-term trend liquidity zones ke respect ya violation par mabni ho sakta hai

JPY pair abhi 146.91 kay aas paas fluctuate kar raha hai. USD Dollar Index ki weakness abhi bhi bearish control main hai aur yeh 102.50 resistance level kay neeche trade kar raha hai. Technical indicators kay mutabiq, pair 161.40 tak barh sakta hai, lekin price aaj gir bhi sakti hai. European session shuru honay par humein charts par nazar rakhni hogi. RSI abhi 53.6393 par hai jo dikhata hai ke market uptrend main hai lekin aglay kuch dino main neeche ja sakta hai. MACD indicator 6.537 par hai aur low volume bar show kar raha hai. USD/JPY 20 aur 50 period ki exponential moving average kay upar hai jo bullish signal dikhata hai. Minor support aur resistance areas hain jo entry points kay liye use kiye ja sakte hain. Market ka rise resistance target 151.84 par hit kar sakta hai jo primary resistance level hai. Agar aap buy kartay hain to price range 161.40 tak target ki ja sakti hai aur teesra target 171.30 kay aas paas ho sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar price girta hai to primary support level 139.83 par hai. Agar sell hota hai to doosra support level 124.14 par hai. Us kay baad, price teesray resistance level 101.10 ko test kar sakta hai. Technical point of view say, best approach yeh hai kay trend kay mutabiq short positions open ki jayein taake profit mil sake.USD/JPY ka impulsive price movement supply area 147.22 - 146.68 tak pohanch gaya hai. Is se price ko correct ho kar RBS area 144.29 tak girne ka chance milta hai aur phir wahan se upward rally continue ho sakti hai. EMA 50 ne SMA 200 ko cross kar kay golden cross signal generate kiya hai, jo is baat ko indicate karta hai ke trend bullish hai. Stochastic indicator bhi support kar raha hai ke price correct ho. Parameters jo overbought zone 90 - 80 level par cross kar rahay hain, yeh dikhata hai ke overbought point ab pohanch gaya hai. Agar koi reversal candlestick pattern, jaise bearish engulfing ya dominant break, nazar aaye to yeh surety milegi ke price correct ho raha hai. Lekin agar Japanese Yen ka outlook weak hi rehta hai aur buyers profit taking nahi karte, to price increase ka rally supply area ko pass kar kay continue ho sakta hai.Trading plan ke liye behtari yeh hai ke abhi BUY moment ka intezar kiya jaye, kyun ke trend already bullish hai jab se golden cross signal aaya hai. Entry position RBS area 144.29 par rakhi ja sakti hai jab
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US Dollar ki nayi taqat se mazid mazbooti mili. Filhal yeh pair 148.59 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jab ke din ke low 148.08 ko hit karne ke baad bounce back hua, jo ke bazaar mein ehtiyaat ka izhar karta hai. Lekin, yeh pair ab bhi week ke aakhir mein anay walay aham economic data ki wajah se exposed hai, jo ke mazeed market movement ko trigger kar sakta hai.USD ki taqat ka aik bara wajah US Durable Goods Orders ka strong performance tha, jo ke August mein 9.9% month-over-month barh gaye. Yeh bara izafa tha, khaaskar June ke 6.9% decline ke baad, aur market ki expectation se kafi zyada tha jo ke 4.0% ka izafa tha. Yeh May 2020 se sabse bara izafa tha, jis ne US economy ke slowdown ke hawalay se kuch tashveesh door ki aur US dollar ko temporary boost diya.Federal Reserve ke officials ne bhi overall market outlook mein dovish comments diye. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker ne zor diya ke interest rates ko dheere dheere kam karna chahiye, jo ke Fed ki ehtiyaat se approach ko zahir karta hai. Isi tarah, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne kaha ke mojooda monetary policy pehle hi kaafi restrictive hai aur Fed ka focus ab employment targets hasil karne par hai. In remarks ne US dollar ke faiday ko limited rakha, kyun ke market ne mazeed rate hikes ke hawalay se apni expectations adjust kar li.Japanese side par, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne market ko yeh yaqeen dilaya ke central bank ka koi immediate plan nahi hai ke long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ko sell karain, as part of apni interest rate adjustment strategy. Unho ne yeh bhi kaha ke agar JGB purchases ko kam kiya gaya tou yeh BoJ ke overall balance sheet ka aik chhota hissa hoga. Sath hi, unho ne yeh bhi bataya ke thodi interest rate adjustments ho sakti hain agar economic conditions bank ki forecast ke mutabiq hui, lekin koi bara policy shift abhi expect nahi kiya ja raha. Aagey dekhte huay, yeh pair ab ek aham downtrend line ke qareeb hai jo ke 148.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh support break hota hai tou mazeed declines dekhnay ko mil sakte hain, aur agla target October 4th ka low 145.93 hoga. Agar yeh level break hota hai, tou 145.00 ka mark mazeed selling pressure ko trigger kar sakta hai